Ex-NFL Executive Randy Mueller: Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson?

[C Mart]

This might be the best overall article about Douglas and Jets hierarchy regarding their upcoming decision. 
 

Randy Mueller: Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson 

The answer to this question holds the key to unlocking many things. The New York Jets sit in the “power position” at #2 in this year’s NFL Draft. It’s the most intriguing spot with the widest array of consequences, effecting not only the Jets, and the career trajectory of their general manager, but also several other NFL teams and their ability to retool and advance their franchises forward. 

This is truly a career defining move for the Jets first time GM, Joe Douglas, who is entering year three on the job, to mixed results. Douglas is on his second head coach, has a roster still devoid of NFL talent, depth and is in a market where everyone outside your building has all the answers. He has to decide whether to keep his third year QB, Sam Darnold, or draft everybody’s flavor of the month, BYU QB Zach Wilson. 

The degree of difficulty in making this decision is HIGH and the levels of intel you need to consider are historically complicated. However, let me remind you of the goal of every NFL GM — to build a TEAM worthy of consistently competing for a Super Bowl title year after year. This task does not come with a definitive “how too book”. I would, however, suggest one reads the chapter on “best practices”. This decision on who your quarterback will be in the future cannot be made in a vacuum.

The key, for my money, is the word TEAM. Yes, you need a QB. However, you also need a way to keep said QB upright. You also need weapons to stretch the field. You need a running game designed (and there are many ways to do it) to play complimentary football with your defense and situational football offensively (clock management and the like) that allows you to win games. And we have not even got to the other side of the ball yet. We would all love to have the next Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady but for my money, the untold story of both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was how well their defenses played and the completeness of their overall rosters. 

Listen, nobody likes Zach Wilson more than me. I was singing his praises midway thru his 2020 season on The Football GM podcast/The Athletic. He has top level NFL arm talent and he can process information, both pre and post snap. Wilson gets the ball out on time. He can anticipate like an NFL veteran and he can either throw with touch or drive the ball. However, best of all, Wilson operates both from the pocket and on the move with a delivery that fixes a lot of problems that schemes and play calling can’t make up for. He also shows consistent accuracy at all levels of the field and his instincts and dynamic playmaking ability make him ready to go from jump street for whichever team picks him. 

However, I also believe that current Jets QB, Sam Darnold, has not scratched the surface of how good he can be, if given a chance under the right circumstances, as well. I am going to steal the best description of Darnold's situation that I have heard to-date-from anyone. It came from my podcast co-host and national NFL writer for The Athletic, Mike Sando. Sando said, “If the Jets had hatched a plan to destroy Sam Darnold's career from the start, what would they have changed?” My response is NOTHING. They have executed that plan to perfection. The truth sometimes hurts. 

Darnold has flashed the same skill set that many of us identified in college at USC. He is athletic and he has the arm strength to make all the throws. Darnold can move inside the pocket by resetting his feet (to avoid rush and contact) to get the ball out cleanly and timely vs pressure and he can throw on the run while scrambling in either direction. He makes throws with accuracy beyond what his completion percentage would tell you. Let me remind you, some thought Buffalo QB Josh Allen could never change his completion percentage either. They were wrong and there were predictable reasons. Furthermore, Darnold anticipates receivers coming open and shows natural instincts for playing the position at a much higher level than his production numbers to date would indicate. He will make you say “Wow” when you study the tape. As an evaluator, I think it’s way too early to give up on him as an NFL starting QB. Sure, he will make a bone-head decision on occasion when trying to do too much, but those risks and decision-making under pressure are not fatal flaws. I think Darnold is confident in his ability. Unfortunately, the system he has been asked to run (X 2 now) has not given him ample options and answers of where to go with the ball AND the quality of roster around him has been dreadful on both sides of the ball. 

If you want to answer the question that the Jets and specifically Joe Douglas has in front of him, you have to look big picture. I actually like both QB’s enough to say, “We can win with either.” The real question should be, which one allows us to build the most talented and deepest team around him going forward? 

If you, like me, think you can win with either guy, then proceed this way. How many boxes in the team building manual do either option allow you to check? Get out your score cards and make your lists of the other positions of need on this 2 win team and what either choice allows you to do in filling out the rest of your team building concerns. What can we parlay the #2 pick in the NFL Draft into this year? Can we slide back more than once and acquire chips to build with? Ask all the pertinent questions.

One critical element that must be considered, and doesn’t get enough attention, is Darnold’s contract. I do think you have to factor money and contract (and its length) in to any decision. It’s been said by many who analyze the NFL that a rookie QB on a rookie contract gives you salary cap flexibility to build without the albatross of a $35M a year commitment of a second contract that has been allocated to the position. That is true and an obvious advantage. To that end, Wilson on a rookie deal vs Darnold on a franchise type deal would be a big difference and would tip the scales in Wilson’s direction, at least when it comes to money. But, what if Darnold and his representation really wants him be the QB of the Jets? What if he believes in the new staff and the Matt LaFluer/Kyle Shanahan style offensive scheme that is being installed? A three-year bridge deal, with no franchise tag, no trade, and reasonable money (say $20/25M a year) that makes him a total free agent, without strings attached at age 27, might just make some sense for both sides. Maybe there is a club option and/or other guarantees, but my point is a three-year commitment is an eternity in the NFL. It has to be a win-win for both sides to consider. It allows the club to plan and build out their team around those cap numbers. Stability sometimes outweighs the new flashy toy. Sure, you are betting on yourself in Darnold's case, but it would put him in an unprecedented situation and would also give the Jets more time for him to develop and move further down the road to winning. If the Jets trade Darnold, he’s not getting any new deal and will be on a one year prove it or get cut scenario. 

I know. A contract extension for Darnold, are you kidding? All I am saying is the Jets need to explore some middle ground in this situation. They really need to think outside the box. I harken back to the original goal of the GM — to build a TEAM worthy of consistently competing for a Super Bowl. No decision is made without other ramifications being discussed. This type of discussion exists within the walls of a well-run NFL franchise and that’s why I always want to make sure, I’m not the smartest guy in the room. Having a well-versed team of decision makers by my side allows the GM to sleep a little better. Good luck Joe. 

https://www.muellerfootball.com/post/sam-darnold-vs-zach-wilson

[kdels62]

5 minutes ago, C Mart said:

This might be the best overall article about Douglas and Jets hierarchy regarding their upcoming decision. 
 

Randy Mueller: Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson 

The answer to this question holds the key to unlocking many things. The New York Jets sit in the “power position” at #2 in this year’s NFL Draft. It’s the most intriguing spot with the widest array of consequences, effecting not only the Jets, and the career trajectory of their general manager, but also several other NFL teams and their ability to retool and advance their franchises forward. 

This is truly a career defining move for the Jets first time GM, Joe Douglas, who is entering year three on the job, to mixed results. Douglas is on his second head coach, has a roster still devoid of NFL talent, depth and is in a market where everyone outside your building has all the answers. He has to decide whether to keep his third year QB, Sam Darnold, or draft everybody’s flavor of the month, BYU QB Zach Wilson. 

The degree of difficulty in making this decision is HIGH and the levels of intel you need to consider are historically complicated. However, let me remind you of the goal of every NFL GM — to build a TEAM worthy of consistently competing for a Super Bowl title year after year. This task does not come with a definitive “how too book”. I would, however, suggest one reads the chapter on “best practices”. This decision on who your quarterback will be in the future cannot be made in a vacuum.

The key, for my money, is the word TEAM. Yes, you need a QB. However, you also need a way to keep said QB upright. You also need weapons to stretch the field. You need a running game designed (and there are many ways to do it) to play complimentary football with your defense and situational football offensively (clock management and the like) that allows you to win games. And we have not even got to the other side of the ball yet. We would all love to have the next Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady but for my money, the untold story of both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was how well their defenses played and the completeness of their overall rosters. 

Listen, nobody likes Zach Wilson more than me. I was singing his praises midway thru his 2020 season on The Football GM podcast/The Athletic. He has top level NFL arm talent and he can process information, both pre and post snap. Wilson gets the ball out on time. He can anticipate like an NFL veteran and he can either throw with touch or drive the ball. However, best of all, Wilson operates both from the pocket and on the move with a delivery that fixes a lot of problems that schemes and play calling can’t make up for. He also shows consistent accuracy at all levels of the field and his instincts and dynamic playmaking ability make him ready to go from jump street for whichever team picks him. 

However, I also believe that current Jets QB, Sam Darnold, has not scratched the surface of how good he can be, if given a chance under the right circumstances, as well. I am going to steal the best description of Darnold's situation that I have heard to-date-from anyone. It came from my podcast co-host and national NFL writer for The Athletic, Mike Sando. Sando said, “If the Jets had hatched a plan to destroy Sam Darnold's career from the start, what would they have changed?” My response is NOTHING. They have executed that plan to perfection. The truth sometimes hurts. 

Darnold has flashed the same skill set that many of us identified in college at USC. He is athletic and he has the arm strength to make all the throws. Darnold can move inside the pocket by resetting his feet (to avoid rush and contact) to get the ball out cleanly and timely vs pressure and he can throw on the run while scrambling in either direction. He makes throws with accuracy beyond what his completion percentage would tell you. Let me remind you, some thought Buffalo QB Josh Allen could never change his completion percentage either. They were wrong and there were predictable reasons. Furthermore, Darnold anticipates receivers coming open and shows natural instincts for playing the position at a much higher level than his production numbers to date would indicate. He will make you say “Wow” when you study the tape. As an evaluator, I think it’s way too early to give up on him as an NFL starting QB. Sure, he will make a bone-head decision on occasion when trying to do too much, but those risks and decision-making under pressure are not fatal flaws. I think Darnold is confident in his ability. Unfortunately, the system he has been asked to run (X 2 now) has not given him ample options and answers of where to go with the ball AND the quality of roster around him has been dreadful on both sides of the ball. 

If you want to answer the question that the Jets and specifically Joe Douglas has in front of him, you have to look big picture. I actually like both QB’s enough to say, “We can win with either.” The real question should be, which one allows us to build the most talented and deepest team around him going forward? 

If you, like me, think you can win with either guy, then proceed this way. How many boxes in the team building manual do either option allow you to check? Get out your score cards and make your lists of the other positions of need on this 2 win team and what either choice allows you to do in filling out the rest of your team building concerns. What can we parlay the #2 pick in the NFL Draft into this year? Can we slide back more than once and acquire chips to build with? Ask all the pertinent questions.

One critical element that must be considered, and doesn’t get enough attention, is Darnold’s contract. I do think you have to factor money and contract (and its length) in to any decision. It’s been said by many who analyze the NFL that a rookie QB on a rookie contract gives you salary cap flexibility to build without the albatross of a $35M a year commitment of a second contract that has been allocated to the position. That is true and an obvious advantage. To that end, Wilson on a rookie deal vs Darnold on a franchise type deal would be a big difference and would tip the scales in Wilson’s direction, at least when it comes to money. But, what if Darnold and his representation really wants him be the QB of the Jets? What if he believes in the new staff and the Matt LaFluer/Kyle Shanahan style offensive scheme that is being installed? A three-year bridge deal, with no franchise tag, no trade, and reasonable money (say $20/25M a year) that makes him a total free agent, without strings attached at age 27, might just make some sense for both sides. Maybe there is a club option and/or other guarantees, but my point is a three-year commitment is an eternity in the NFL. It has to be a win-win for both sides to consider. It allows the club to plan and build out their team around those cap numbers. Stability sometimes outweighs the new flashy toy. Sure, you are betting on yourself in Darnold's case, but it would put him in an unprecedented situation and would also give the Jets more time for him to develop and move further down the road to winning. If the Jets trade Darnold, he’s not getting any new deal and will be on a one year prove it or get cut scenario. 

I know. A contract extension for Darnold, are you kidding? All I am saying is the Jets need to explore some middle ground in this situation. They really need to think outside the box. I harken back to the original goal of the GM — to build a TEAM worthy of consistently competing for a Super Bowl. No decision is made without other ramifications being discussed. This type of discussion exists within the walls of a well-run NFL franchise and that’s why I always want to make sure, I’m not the smartest guy in the room. Having a well-versed team of decision makers by my side allows the GM to sleep a little better. Good luck Joe. 

https://www.muellerfootball.com/post/sam-darnold-vs-zach-wilson

I mean... it’s pretty obvious why he’s a former executive.

[C Mart]

25 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I mean... it’s pretty obvious why he’s a former executive.

Really?  How so?

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I mean... it’s pretty obvious why he’s a former executive.

How's Chris Simms' NFL executive resume looking?  

This guy expressed a well-formed opinion that didn't happen to align with the Zach Wilson is Jesus movement.  Let the hate flow.

[RedBeardedSavage]

Great article. Thanks for sharing. 

[Morrissey]

This idea that Sam Darnold hasn’t scratched the surface of his talent is group think at this point and not based on anything we’ve seen on field. Sam is well liked personally by the national and local media. I believe that’s where this comes from.  He wouldn’t be getting this benefit if he wasn’t well liked, he’d be described as he has performed, as one of the worst starting QB’s in the NFL.

[YankeeJet22]

Thanks for posting. 

Build a team, good things will happen. Sometimes super things will happen. 

[varjet]

9 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I mean... it’s pretty obvious why he’s a former executive.

I think this is a pretty good article and lays it out pretty well. 

 

[T0mShane]

Randy. Thanks.

[kdels62]

Just now, C Mart said:

Really?  How do?

Because who cares what Darnold’s representation wants? What is the benefit to the Jets to give Darnold a raise while he performs as the worst QB in the league. He mentions it, calls it outside of the box, mentions TEAM building but does not give a reason why the extension benefits the Jets. 

[kdels62]

6 minutes ago, nycdan said:

How's Chris Simms' NFL executive resume looking?  

This guy expressed a well-formed opinion that didn't happen to align with the Zach Wilson is Jesus movement.  Let the hate flow.

Point to my post where I mention Zach Wilson? 

[genot]

10 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I mean... it’s pretty obvious why he’s a former executive.

That's just immature baby talk. Everything he said is factually correct. Some of the people who post wanting another QB, are so unwilling to admit they could be wrong. At least me and others who believe all of what was posted in that article, are humble enough to admit we could be wrong

[kdels62]

3 minutes ago, varjet said:

I think this is a pretty good article and lays it out pretty well. 

 

Where does he explain how giving Darnold $20 million a year helps the team? Because Darnold was a highly touted prospect 4 years ago? 

[Adobolo]

Brilliant article, exactly word for word what I'm thinking. Think it's the most likely outcome this off-season.

[The Crusher]

2 minutes ago, genot said:

That's just immature baby talk. Everything he said is factually correct. Some of the people who post wanting another QB, are so unwilling to admit they could be wrong. At least me and others who believe all of what was posted in that article, are humble enough to admit we could be wrong

Immature baby talk? Damn, babies come a long way from when I had them. Weak as bitches only ga ga goo goo all the damn time. Color me impressed. 

[kdels62]

1 minute ago, genot said:

That's just immature baby talk. Everything he said is factually correct. Some of the people who post wanting another QB, are so unwilling to admit they could be wrong. At least me and others who believe all of what was posted in that article, are humble enough to admit we could be wrong

That’s spin. Hanging onto hope for Darnold at the cost of $20 million on the cap is a ridiculous thought. Evidence over 3 years as a pro and an actual reevaluation of his college career should  have told you that you were wrong but you can’t admit it. Financially this makes no sense, it also makes no sense when compared to the evidence. 

[C Mart]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

Because who cares what Darnold’s representation wants? What is the benefit to the Jets to give Darnold a raise while he performs as the worst QB in the league. He mentions it, calls it outside of the box, mentions TEAM building but does not give a reason why the extension benefits the Jets. 

To me he explained everything from a front office decision maker perspective. You just don’t  agree with him. 

[Adobolo]

This is the second time I heard about a new 3 year contract for Darnold that suits both sides, @football guy mentioned something similar about 3 weeks ago 

[kdels62]

4 minutes ago, C Mart said:

To me he explained everything from a front office decision maker perspective. You just don’t  agree with him. 

No, I don’t think his conclusion is well stated nor is it well argued. Plus his conclusion which is reached with poor reasoning is also bad. Give a bad player $20 million without letting the market dictate his value, that’s bad reasoning. He might still be good? Sure but don’t give him $20 million to prove it. Pass on QB prospects who represent the best value in sports? Compel into agreeing with you because right now you’re asking me to squander cap dollars and time.

[C Mart]

8 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Where does he explain how giving Darnold $20 million a year helps the team? Because Darnold was a highly touted prospect 4 years ago? 

If you, like me, think you can win with either guy, then proceed this way. How many boxes in the team building manual do either option allow you to check? Get out your score cards and make your lists of the other positions of need on this 2 win team and what either choice allows you to do in filling out the rest of your team building concerns. What can we parlay the #2 pick in the NFL Draft into this year? Can we slide back more than once and acquire chips to build with? Ask all the pertinent questions.

It has to be a win-win for both sides to consider. It allows the club to plan and build out their team around those cap numbers. Stability sometimes outweighs the new flashy toy. Sure, you are betting on yourself in Darnold's case, but it would put him in an unprecedented situation and would also give the Jets more time for him to develop and move further down the road to winning.

[Adoni Beast]

Lines up with what may potentially happen here, unless Douglas is smitten with Wilson or Fields.

But I will add that if Darnold improves, his ceiling may only be meh/average. 
 

Then we have to hit on our draft picks, crap shoot.

And a good roster with a meh QB loses in the wild card every year.

[maury77]

Giving Darnold an extension at this stage of his career reminds me of the Sanchez extension: unwarranted and given for all the wrong reasons. 

[genot]

4 minutes ago, C Mart said:

To me he explained everything from a front office decision maker perspective. You just don’t  agree with him. 

Exactly. That's why i was a little rough in my post. If you don't agree with some posters QB narrative you must be an incompetent former executive.A dumb analyst. Or a Darnold fan who owns too many Sam bibbleheads

[Morrissey]

If Jets give Sam Darnold contract extension this team is ******* brain dead

[kdels62]

2 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Giving Darnold an extension at this stage of his career reminds me of the Sanchez extension: unwarranted and given for all the wrong reasons. 

This is exactly what is being advocated for in this article. 

[dbatesman]

love too take team-building advice from the guy who drafted Ted Ginn at #9 overall

[JTJet]

20 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

This idea that Sam Darnold hasn’t scratched the surface of his talent is group think at this point and not based on anything we’ve seen on field. Sam is well liked personally by the national and local media. I believe that’s where this comes from.  He wouldn’t be getting this benefit if he wasn’t well liked, he’d be described as he has performed, as one of the worst starting QB’s in the NFL.

Most of these guys analyze players tapes far more than you or I, that's why you get the evaluators, pundits, coaches consistently saying they think Darnold can still make it. 

There is certainly group think going on, but its for damn sure not in the pro Darnold crowd. 

[C Mart]

5 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

love too take team-building advice from the guy who drafted Ted Ginn at #9 overall

1. That’s one decision

2. How many yrs did Ginn play in the NFL? 

[MykePM]

This article pretty much echoes everything @football guy has been saying about the Jets thought process regarding the QB position.

[kdels62]

8 minutes ago, C Mart said:

If you, like me, think you can win with either guy, then proceed this way. How many boxes in the team building manual do either option allow you to check? Get out your score cards and make your lists of the other positions of need on this 2 win team and what either choice allows you to do in filling out the rest of your team building concerns. What can we parlay the #2 pick in the NFL Draft into this year? Can we slide back more than once and acquire chips to build with? Ask all the pertinent questions.

It has to be a win-win for both sides to consider. It allows the club to plan and build out their team around those cap numbers. Stability sometimes outweighs the new flashy toy. Sure, you are betting on yourself in Darnold's case, but it would put him in an unprecedented situation and would also give the Jets more time for him to develop and move further down the road to winning.

There is no win for the Jets in extending Darnold. He is under team control for 2 seasons for a total of about $30 million.

[kdels62]

38 minutes ago, nycdan said:

How's Chris Simms' NFL executive resume looking?  

This guy expressed a well-formed opinion that didn't happen to align with the Zach Wilson is Jesus movement.  Let the hate flow.

Still waiting

[dbatesman]

4 minutes ago, C Mart said:

1. That’s one decision

Drafting John Beck was another one.

5 minutes ago, C Mart said:

2. How many yrs did Ginn play in the NFL? 

Fourteen and counting, including one where he almost (but not quite) had 800 yards! Now that’s what I call a draft pick babey

[C Mart]

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

Drafting John Beck was another one.

Fourteen and counting, including one where he almost (but not quite) had 800 yards! Now that’s what I call a draft pick babey

Yeah NFL teams just give out 14 yr careers. 
 

And I’m sure there are more dud picks. Every GM has them. 

[MykePM]

21 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

If Jets give Sam Darnold contract extension this team is ******* brain dead

This wouldn’t be a Goff or even Sanchez valued extension.  A modestly-priced deal, heavy on incentives, would risk a little extra money to allow you to hedge your bet.  If Darnold really turns it around (which you’re hoping for if you keep him), you still have his rights going forward, whereas without the extension you’d be negotiating with him after a great season (one great season) and be bent over a barrel (see: Jared Goff).  If he’s mediocre, you still have the options of giving him one more year or trading him on a modest QB contract).  If he has another crappy year, you may have sacrificed a little extra cash, but only 2 more years worth and hopefully you’d have an out after the first of them.

[dbatesman]

Just now, C Mart said:

Yeah NFL teams just give out 14 yr careers. 
 

And I’m sure there are more dud picks. Every GM has them. 

Mueller would have had more, but the Dolphins only trusted him to run their draft once