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Ex-NFL Executive Randy Mueller: Sam Darnold vs Zach Wilson?


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3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Build a team?   HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH!

We need to trade all of our high picks for Watson and dump that scrub darnold for a 5th round pick because we don't like him!

Watson with no talent around him won 4 games this year, why would you want to give away all our picks to put Watson in that same situation?

 

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1 minute ago, 20andOut said:

That is if you pay for the option, which would be a 25M cap hit next season.

I think the point is with the #2 pick in hand you need to create longer term stability. If you dont believe in Darnold take the QB at 2. If you still believe in him which the writer does, You want to extend him to give some stability and avoid big cap hits. Give him three years with a bump this year and a smaller number next year. While many here go straight to the gospel of PFF and say he is ranked #33 or whatever, the majority of people that are actually professional full time evaluators seem to believe Darnold can still be a successful QB in the league.

Professional full-time evaluators are wrong all the time. They also benefit from not admitting to being wrong. Looking just at Darnold however, the numbers say don’t extend him. Right now he costs no cash next season and could potentially cost $25 million in 2022. 2 season at $25 million, that’s his true cost. Extending him at $20m a year gives him probably around $40m in new cash over the next 2 seasons. History tells us, that Darnold is probably not an outlier in terms of performance transformation so likely he’s going to remain bad and you just gave him $40m to prove it. Alternatively, if he defeats the odds and he’s good then it’s easy math $40m is more than $25m and not extending him saved $15m with which you can pay him into the future. 

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19 minutes ago, 20andOut said:

That is if you pay for the option, which would be a 25M cap hit next season.

I think the point is with the #2 pick in hand you need to create longer term stability. If you dont believe in Darnold take the QB at 2. If you still believe in him which the writer does, You want to extend him to give some stability and avoid big cap hits. Give him three years with a bump this year and a smaller number next year. While many here go straight to the gospel of PFF and say he is ranked #33 or whatever, the majority of people that are actually professional full time evaluators seem to believe Darnold can still be a successful QB in the league.

I could be wrong but I thought I recently read due to covid and lack of revenue the 5th yr option will be approx $19.5M. 

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57 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Lines up with what may potentially happen here, unless Douglas is smitten with Wilson or Fields.

But I will add that if Darnold improves, his ceiling may only be meh/average. 
 

Then we have to hit on our draft picks, crap shoot.

And a good roster with a meh QB loses in the wild card every year.

Not true; Rams with Goff got to the super bowl, 49ers with Garropollo got to the super bowl, Ravens with Flacco won the super bowl, Jets with Sanchez got to the championship game twice, etc, etc, etc.

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4 minutes ago, C Mart said:

JC he explains it. Again, you 1) don’t comprehend what Mueller is saying and/or 2) don’t agree with him. 

He doesn’t explain how it benefits the Jets. We can trade back without extending Darnold. We can choose to skip out on Fields and Wilson in exchange for assets without extending Darnold. There isn’t a reason given for hill the extension other than Darnold may want to bet on himself. However, the Jets are not receiving a new asset or position of power with an extension. He doesn’t clarify how it helps the Jets. It is bad reasoning and a bad conclusion made without evidence.

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The most important part the article is the following:

 “If the Jets had hatched a plan to destroy Sam Darnold's career from the start, what would they have changed?” My response is NOTHING. They have executed that plan to perfection. The truth sometimes hurts. "

And so many act like this is no big deal, but some of us saw this coming a mile away from before when they drafted Sam Darnold.....

What I think is exciting is that for the first time in over almost twenty years the Jets will have a plan to develop their young QB no matter who is under center next year and that is what is EXCITING!  

Rather than insulting each other, maybe we should be thinking which option makes the best overall sense and that could be either keep Sam or trade him depending on proper film review and the strategic plan for the team.

 

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20 minutes ago, Joejet said:

Not true; Rams with Goff got to the super bowl, 49ers with Garropollo got to the super bowl, Ravens with Flacco won the super bowl, Jets with Sanchez got to the championship game twice, etc, etc, etc.

It is simple bad teams, regardless of the QB, don't make it to the SB!!!

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30 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

Everyone loved Ozzie Newsom but he drafted Kyle Boller in the 1st rd not all his choices were great.. Only Jet fans never get a pick wrong..LOL

Can you imagine if you were a Bears fan and you traded up one spot to get Trubisky?

When...Jamal Adams was still on the board lol.  

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1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

That’s spin. Hanging onto hope for Darnold at the cost of $20 million on the cap is a ridiculous thought. Evidence over 3 years as a pro and an actual reevaluation of his college career should  have told you that you were wrong but you can’t admit it. Financially this makes no sense, it also makes no sense when compared to the evidence. 

I wouldn't offer that contract or even think about it till after declining his fifth year option and watching his 4th year with him having to likely win at least 9 games or so. And, that all also depends on the evaluation this month of all the QBs we may desire in the draft at #2 i,e Wilson, Fields, and Lance.

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22 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Reminds me of folks wanting to trade that lazy fat slob POS reach QW for a 5th rounder or cutting him outright.

Oh how the tables have turned.  

Well I never wanted Quinnen traded for a 5th rounder.  I did want him traded for a 'Huge Bounty of picks' that the interested team kept coming back with.

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1 hour ago, C Mart said:

To me he explained everything from a front office decision maker perspective. You just don’t  agree with him. 

The one area that he didnt explain, and maybe you wont agree, is that if you pick Wilson at #2, and Joe Douglas' goal is for this kid to succeed, you must also consider that this kid needs to sit for a year and learn & mature based on his number of starts and competition level in college.  Throwing this kid right in as a starter is the same rush decision we have made repeatedly as a franchise.  It stunts their long term development in most cases.  So with so many needs on this roster, is JD going to pick Wilson to just sit him for the year (or most of anyway) and not get any return on this pick for possibly all of 2021 ?

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14 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Sorry, did you not read the article?  I suggest you read the article.

I did. There’s no real reason given to extend Darnold, especially if you consider that he’s under team control over the next 2 years. There no reason given. We can trade back and build around Darnold for 2 years without adding any substantial money to the cap. So what is the benefit to the Jets of extending Sam Darnold?

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9 minutes ago, Jetpain said:

The one area that he didnt explain, and maybe you wont agree, is that if you pick Wilson at #2, and Joe Douglas' goal is for this kid to succeed, you must also consider that this kid needs to sit for a year and learn & mature based on his number of starts and competition level in college.  Throwing this kid right in as a starter is the same rush decision we have made repeatedly as a franchise.  It stunts their long term development in most cases.  So with so many needs on this roster, is JD going to pick Wilson to just sit him for the year (or most of anyway) and not get any return on this pick for possibly all of 2021 ?

In another system, maybe you sit a rookie, but Wilson has experience of the outside-zone play action system the Jets will utilise. If you trust your coaches, Wilson should be good to go in week 1. 

 

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First off, this decision has already been made.  The Jets will be trading Sam.  Who the QB will be is still an open question...Watson or Wilson seems to be the two, very different, options.

Secondly, in addition to all the reasons the exec stated - he's really not taking into account the NY fan base and media - and, of course, JD's personal job security.  Now, I know people say you can't manage a team like that - but BS - it's reality and does have tangible effects.

if the Jets start out 0-3 with Sam the fan base will be booing this team off the field on every possession that doesn't result in a TD - that stuff is bad for player moral - it reverberates through the locker room. It will get UGLY very fast.  There still won't enough talent on this team (even with all those picks this year) to build a team Sam can win with - this year -those rookies and second year guys will become good player - we hope, but next year is asking too much.  The Jets have too many holes..

With a rookie you start over and the fan base will have patience, give you time, and understand you're in a rebuild process.

Simply put, the Jets can't keep Sam.  The negatives far outweigh the positives.

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2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Immature baby talk? Damn, babies come a long way from when I had them. Weak as bitches only ga ga goo goo all the damn time. Color me impressed. 

When you had them?  I seen pictures. Looks like you have another one in there that's been cooking for a few decades 

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22 minutes ago, Jetpain said:

The one area that he didnt explain, and maybe you wont agree, is that if you pick Wilson at #2, and Joe Douglas' goal is for this kid to succeed, you must also consider that this kid needs to sit for a year and learn & mature based on his number of starts and competition level in college.  Throwing this kid right in as a starter is the same rush decision we have made repeatedly as a franchise.  It stunts their long term development in most cases.  So with so many needs on this roster, is JD going to pick Wilson to just sit him for the year (or most of anyway) and not get any return on this pick for possibly all of 2021 ?

Not saying you’re wrong but nowadays it’s tough to do that, especially coming off a 2 win season. I don’t see this fan base, the NY media, ticket buying customers  being that patient. 

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