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Will Darnold ever be good?


Will Darnold Ever Be Good?  

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  1. 1. Will Darnold Ever Be a Good NFL QB



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1 hour ago, JiF said:

Has there ever, in the history of the league, been an example of a QB with 3 years of starting experiencing turning it around from bottom 3 in the league to suddenly a good QB?

I cant think of a single example. Sam Darnold aint breaking that trend.  Dudes a bust.

Drew Brees, Steve Young 

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10 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

 

I can't remember a quarterback with an inferior situation around them then Darnold last year.

Hell, he had a weak crew of talent/coaches around him the year before... and then we subtracted Robby Anderson and four of our top five receivers were hurt to start the season. 

I mean, pardon my francais, but WTF did you think was gonna happen?

This thread comes down to - do you think this situation has been historically bad?

 Seems like, from the Dianna Russini quote, most of the NFL sees it that way. 

We’ve been through all of this, friend. 

Sam completely imploded last year. When he came back from injury against Buffalo at home (and again against Miami at home), he had an opportunity to save his job here with a more stable and healthy group of WRs around him. He just had to show some improvement and keep us from drafting his replacement.
 

Instead, he went 5 straight weeks without throwing a TD pass (in 2020!). He made inexcusable mistakes. His production was almost non-existent. Part of being a good QB is elevating guys around you, adapting on the fly, and making the most of your opportunities. Sam didn’t do any of that and you have to be able to do some of that in year 3. 

Also, historically, Jets fans do know better than at least one NFL organization that plays in green and white . . . 

 

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3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

We’ve been through all of this, friend. 

Sam completely imploded last year. When he came back from injury against Buffalo at home (and again against Miami at home), he had an opportunity to save his job here with a more stable and healthy group of WRs around him. He just had to show some improvement and keep us from drafting his replacement.
 

Instead, he went 5 straight weeks without throwing a TD pass (in 2020!). He made inexcusable mistakes. His production was almost non-existent. Part of being a good QB is elevating guys around you, adapting on the fly, and making the most of your opportunities. Sam didn’t do any of that and you have to be able to do some of that in year 3. 

Also, historically, Jets fans do know better than at least one NFL organization that plays in green and white . . . 

 

We have been through this. I respect your position. And the red head did take a step back this year. I don't dispute that. He's put some putrid play on tape this year.

I think the situation played much more of a role in his decline. I think people put in bad situations either decide not to care or go the 'do-too-much', 'press' route and end up overcompensating themselves into a negative outcome. 

It's completely subjective as to what this kid is going to be going forward. This isn't Kirk Cousins where we all know exactly who that guy is and will be two years from now. 

I don't mind going on-the-record with a wild prediction: If Darnold is traded to the 49ers this offseason, he will become a top 8 quarterback in this league within the next two seasons. 

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4 minutes ago, JiF said:

I dont think Eli was bottom 3 his first 3 years starting.  They went 11-5 in his first full year as a starter, he threw 25tds and 3700 yards.

Eli was objectively bad despite being on much better teams his first 4 seasons. He was an INT machine until it all clicked for him. The Giants were patient and were rewarded for it.

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13 minutes ago, JiF said:

Brees wasnt bottom 3.  Not great but not bottom 3.

Was Young a starter for 3 years before he eventually backed up Montana, then started?  I dont think so.  Could be wrong.

 

 

Extremely similar situations, they weren’t red heads so I guess it’s not comparable?

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51 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The Aikman comparison doesn't work that well because of the third year. The third year is the key year. You typically have to be at least decent by your third year. Aikman wasn't anything special in year 3, but he was decent. Meanwhile, Darnold was awful and clearly worse than the year before. 

I am not so sure. I don't think Darnold will ever be top five, but top ten, possibly. Darnold was worse this past year, IMHO, because his team and his coaching was even worse than the year before, which is going to kill his development. Aikman's cast was getting better year after year, and he had good coaching (and the same offensive system) throughout his first few years. Darnold has had what, two or three? And they all sucked - coaches and schemes.

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10 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I don't mind going on-the-record with a wild prediction: If Darnold is traded to the 49ers this offseason, he will become a top 8 quarterback in this league within the next two seasons. 

This is obviously a very bold prediction, indeed. The thing is, if Sam ever does put it all together, I think it's very likely to be with another team, anyway.  

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3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

This is obviously a very bold prediction, indeed. The thing is, if Sam ever does put it all together, I think it's very likely to be with another team, anyway.  

I think that's fair. I definitely think a 'fresh start' contributes greatly to any personal or professional renaissance. 

That said, I don't know, but maybe we could have that here? New coach, new system, big $ spent in free agency, boatload of draft picks... 

Anyway, this topic has largely been beaten to death. Free agency next week. Can't wait.

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2 hours ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

Define 'good'.

Top 5 QB? No.

Top 12-14 QB? Maybe - in the absolutely perfect set of circumstances. I've seen a lot of Darnold play and it ain't all on the surrounding cast and coaching staff. He's got a lot of work to do.

he was raw coming out... with talent ... that talent was squandered and never developed or protected. coaching maybe. overall team failure ... absolutely.

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5 minutes ago, Bungaman said:

I am not so sure. I don't think Darnold will ever be top five, but top ten, possibly

I think I've gone back and forth about Sam enough on here. 

At this point, I'm just excited to see what the Jets ultimately decide to do. Looking forward to this debate being history, one way or another. 

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2 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I think that's fair. I definitely think a 'fresh start' contributes greatly to any personal or professional renaissance. 

That said, I don't know, but maybe we could have that here? New coach, new system, big $ spent in free agency, boatload of draft picks... 

Anyway, this topic has largely been beaten to death. Free agency next week. Can't wait.

Yep, exactly. It's time to get this show on the road and just see what the Jets actually do. 

The QB debate is just exhausting. As usual, we are all doing our best to guess about the future. No one really knows. I never thought Sam would be anywhere near as bad last year as he ended up being, so maybe he can surprise me again at some point in the future. I'm just super pumped for FA and the draft, because this team has a chance to bring in a lot more talent than it currently has. 

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27 minutes ago, JiF said:

Brees wasnt bottom 3.  Not great but not bottom 3.

Was Young a starter for 3 years before he eventually backed up Montana, then started?  I dont think so.  Could be wrong.

 

 

His years in Tampa were pretty bad. He would have been declared a bust in today age of QB be great NOW

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16 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

Eli was objectively bad despite being on much better teams his first 4 seasons. He was an INT machine until it all clicked for him. The Giants were patient and were rewarded for it.

My brother his first 3 full years of being a starter, would be the best 3 year production this franchise has ever seen.  lol  He wasnt great but he wasnt bottom 3 and he's a million times better then Sam Darnold

2004 23 NYG qb 10 9 7 1-6-0 95 197 48.2 1043 6 3.0 9                                  
2005 24 NYG QB 10 16 16 11-5-0 294 557 52.8 3762 24 4.3 17                                  
2006 25 NYG QB 10 16 16 8-8-0 301 522 57.7 3244 24 4.6 18                                  
2007 26 NYG QB 10 16 16 10-6-0 297 529 56.1 3336 23 4.3 20

 

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2 minutes ago, shawn306 said:

His years in Tampa were pretty bad. He would have been declared a bust in today age of QB be great NOW

Just looked it up, he only played 1 full season in Tampa.  His rookie season he played 6 games.  Then he was back up Montana.

Not really the same as being a 3 year starter, only missing game due to injury.

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19 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Extremely similar situations, they weren’t red heads so I guess it’s not comparable?

Nope. not at all.  Like I just shared.  Young wasnt even in Tampa for 3 years.  Only started 1 full season before becoming a back up.  So, Young, is not comparable.

Brees, was not a bottom 3 QB.  During his first 3 years as a starter the worst QB's in the league were guys like; Joey Harrington, David Carr, Chad Hutchinson, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Couch, Jeff Blake, Tommy Maddox, Jay Fiedler, Kyler Boller, Tim Rattay, AJ Feely, Brian Greese, just to name a few.  He wasnt bottom 3, he wasnt Sam Darnold bad.

Try again.

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42 minutes ago, JiF said:

Brees wasnt bottom 3.  Not great but not bottom 3.

Was Young a starter for 3 years before he eventually backed up Montana, then started?  I dont think so.  Could be wrong.

 

 

Brees was also very good in his 3rd year starting.

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

Cool, so 2 guy back in the 70's and 1 guy from the 90's.  lol

I'll take the odds.

JIF just keep in mind I feel Darnold needs to go 100% hes just not a good QB .... 

I think the Jets should trade out of 2 compile more picks spend limited money in FA and fill holes Via the draft and try to grab Mac Jones . I think if you surround a guy like Mac Jones with talent and build a great defense that will turn out well in the type of offense we are trying to run. WCO works out really well with loads of skill players and a smart QB which is what they say about Jones.

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7 minutes ago, JiF said:

Nope. not at all.  Like I just shared.  Young wasnt even in Tampa for 3 years.  Only started 1 full season before becoming a back up.  So, Young, is not comparable.

Brees, was not a bottom 3 QB.  During his first 3 years as a starter the worst QB's in the league were guys like; Joey Harrington, David Carr, Chad Hutchinson, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Couch, Jeff Blake, Tommy Maddox, Jay Fiedler, Kyler Boller, Tim Rattay, AJ Feely, Brian Greese, just to name a few.  He wasnt bottom 3, he wasnt Sam Darnold bad.

Try again.

No I don’t give a rats ass about your inane question 

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3 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

JIF just keep in mind I feel Darnold needs to go 100% hes just not a good QB .... 

I think the Jets should trade out of 2 compile more picks spend limited money in FA and fill holes Via the draft and try to grab Mac Jones . I think if you surround a guy like Mac Jones with talent and build a great defense that will turn out well in the type of offense we are trying to run. WCO works out really well with loads of skill players and a smart QB which is what they say about Jones.

Not a fan of Mac Jones but whatever, try something.  Not going to pretend like I have a crystal ball, just try something other the worst starting Qb in the NFL> 

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9 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Brees was also very good in his 3rd year starting.

Yep. 

Brees was anywhere from mediocre to bad for his first two years starting (comprised of 27 total starts), but then was a pro bowl QB in his 3rd season starting. Sam has already started 38 games for the Jets. Brees was also never as bad as Sam was last year. 

The Brees comparison, much like the Aikman or Young comparisons, isn't that great. 

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4 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Drew Brees third year wasn't that bad?

1217196360_ScreenShot2021-03-08at12_29_58PM.thumb.png.3eebdc45df892e407c9d330557dd0685.png

Also... take a look @ LT's stats that year:

1648082468_ScreenShot2021-03-08at12_30_38PM.thumb.png.0249a027b2ab4c64fd833d5ecc097581.png

Anyway...

No, no, no. 

His third year starting wasn't bad (he was a pro-bowler). Brees didn't start a single game during his rookie season. He started 27 games in his 2nd and 3rd seasons (2002 and 2003) and was  pro bowl QB in 2004. 

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25 minutes ago, JiF said:

My brother his first 3 full years of being a starter, would be the best 3 year production this franchise has ever seen.  lol  He wasnt great but he wasnt bottom 3 and he's a million times better then Sam Darnold

2004 23 NYG qb 10 9 7 1-6-0 95 197 48.2 1043 6 3.0 9                                  
2005 24 NYG QB 10 16 16 11-5-0 294 557 52.8 3762 24 4.3 17                                  
2006 25 NYG QB 10 16 16 8-8-0 301 522 57.7 3244 24 4.6 18                                  
2007 26 NYG QB 10 16 16 10-6-0 297 529 56.1 3336 23 4.3 20

 

Yardage wise sure. QB and Passer Rating are basically the same - and that's w/ Eli playing on vastly better teams. 

The question was has a bad QB ever turned it around and become good. I provided a recent example. 

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3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

No, no, no. 

His third year starting wasn't bad (he was a pro-bowler). Brees didn't start a single game during his rookie season. He started 27 games in his 2nd and 3rd seasons (2002 and 2003) and was  pro bowl QB in 2004. 

So you're telling me that slapd*ck got the benefit of sitting his first year and still sh*t-the-bed the next two? 

?

And in 2003, Brees had a RB that rushed for 1600 yards and caught 100 balls.

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1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

So you're telling me that slapd*ck got the benefit of sitting his first year and still sh*t-the-bed the next two? 

?

And in 2003, Brees had a RB that rushed for 1600 yards and caught 100 balls.

No, what I'm telling you is that Brees was bad for his first 27 starts, while Sam has been bad for his first 38 starts. 

And that's leaving the difficulty of comparing QB play in 2004 to 2020 out of it. 

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