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3 minutes ago, nycdan said:

With Maye tagged, here is where things stand.  Jets are #2 in the league at $67.3M available (based on the current estimate of the cap, which could change).  JAX is at $71.8M, NE is third at $66.5M, and IND comes in fourth at $44.7M.  Not every team is done cutting and tagging yet so things will move around, but it is unlikely that anyone will be in the same neighborhood as NYJ, JAX and NE.

Conversely, there are six teams that are more than $20M in the hole currently, led by NO at $48.8M.  So they have a LOT of work to do still, as do LAR, PHI, KC and ATL.

So where else can the Jets go to add more room if they want?  Here is the list of players with the largest cap numbers.

Player Base Salary Prorated Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
Jamison Crowder $10,000,000 $1,000,000 $11,375,000
$1,000,000
$10,375,000
Marcus Maye $10,496,000 $0 $10,496,000
$0
$10,496,000
George Fant $8,500,000 $1,000,000 $9,850,000
$1,000,000
$8,850,000
Sam Darnold $920,000 $5,019,581 $9,794,266
$9,624,266
$170,000
Connor McGovern $8,000,000 $1,333,333 $9,333,333
$9,333,333
$0
Quinnen Williams $850,000 $5,419,431 $9,046,647
$13,802,471
($4,755,824)
C.J. Mosley $6,000,000 $1,500,000 $7,500,000
$15,500,000
($8,000,000)
Alex Lewis $5,800,000 $833,333 $6,858,333
$833,333
$6,025,000
Mekhi Becton $1,448,457 $2,743,826 $4,192,283
$9,604,568
($5,412,285)
Greg Van Roten $3,000,000 $0 $3,656,250
$250,000
$3,406,250
Ryan Griffin $2,400,000 $500,000 $3,298,438
$950,000
$2,348,438
Christopher Herndon IV $2,183,000 $167,380 $2,350,380
$167,380
$2,183,000
Folorunso Fatukasi $2,183,000 $43,564 $2,226,564
$43,564
$2,183,000

*credit to overthecap.com

 

Of these, the guys that seem most cuttable are:  Crowder, Fant, Lewis, Van Roten and Griffin.

Now clearly a lot depends on what we think we can do to bring in new blood, but let's take them one by one.

Crowder is expensive but he's a stone cold killer in the slot and unless we are signing or drafting someone we think is better, I think he's a keeper this year.  We can't be in the business of cutting the few productive players we have.  

Fant is decent, and flexible on both sides of the OLine.  I think he's easily replaced if we happen to find ourselves in position to sign or draft an OT, so I'll put him on the bubble for now.

Lewis feels like a goner to me.  He has JAG written all over him, and I expect we'll either sign an OG or draft one high, maybe both.  Or we might sign Linsley or draft a Center and slide McGovern out to Guard.  In any case, that's $6M I think we can scoop up.  

Van Roten is another likely casualty if we can do better.  Brought in to literally fill a hole for a year, I don't think he's done anything to warrant sticking around and is probably the first to go between him and Lewis.  We may not lose both but if we can sign one, draft one, and maybe Cam Clark shows some potential sliding inside, we could.  

Finally, Ryan Griffin is another guy who hasn't shown much to make him stick around.  He flashed a bit in 2019, but regressed badly last season.  Some of it can probably attribute to the horrendous coaching but I assume Herndon is the first guy we keep and Griffin is just renting a roster spot.

So let's say we cut those last three.  That adds another $12.8M to the cap which brings us up to just over $80M.  Fant and Crowder could bump that much higher if we do cut one of them loose as well but let's save that for another day.

Now we would have to replace some players, starting with at least one OG, so even if we go wild and get Thuney for $16M/season, we have the room to do it and still be aggressive on a lot of fronts.  While it's never good to grossly overpay on any long term contract, this is the year to do it.  Shoring up one or two OL positions (Linsley and Thuney), bringing in a solid WR, and adding at least one starting caliber Front-7 defender are all financially achievable.  Not all at $15M+ per season, but two of them yes, and another two in the $10M range can all be done.  

So when we're talking about maybe having to give Watson more money if we brought him in, or having to pay a kings ransom for ARob or Thuney, let's not cry too much over Woody's money.  The teardown is complete.  The rebuild really starts now and the guys we bring in this year are the guys we should expect to be riding to the playoffs next year.  

LFGJ.

They can’t cut Crowder at this point. I don’t want to see Chris Hogan or Braxton Berrios anymore

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5 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Some good players are going to be available from teams in cap hell.  I still think there's a deal to be done with the Saints potentially involving Darnold and Lattimore...

Yes, I think all eyes are on NO with Lattimore and Ramzcyk.  They have already done a lot of restructuring but they're just pushing the trouble down the road to 2022 and 2023.  Something has to give.  As they ponder some tough choices, I wonder if a well-timed offer wouldn't convince them to go a certain way.  The problem is, they would be all but guaranteed to get a 3rd rounder for Ramczyk if he leaves, so I'm not sure what it would take to pry him loose but it will probably start with a 2nd rounder.

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In Van Roten vs. Lewis, I guess they'd be looking at dependability (Van Roten was healthy the whole season, IIRC) vs. versatility (supposedly Lewis can play T if needed, so could be a useful depth guy).  However, Lewis makes nearly twice as much and missed much of the season with some off the field issue. Is that issue now not a problem?  VR was, um, not good, but makes much less.

Maybe cut VR and restructure Lewis?

Why not cut both?  VR is not good, and Lewis not worth his $.

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3 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Looking at that list Van Roten or Lewis (you probably don't want to cut both purely for depth) and Griffin are almost certainly gone.

I think you cut Lewis. He is a bigger cap hit, apparently isn't as good a scheme fit as GVR, and had his issues last year. I hope we go into next year with an established vet (Thuney or Lindsley), use a premium pick in the draft on another IOL, and then see if the rookie can beat out GVR. Other options may be signing a cheaper vet as opposed to a rookie to compete with GVR. Either way, he is affordable enough that we can go into next season with him as a designated back up. Worse things in the world than to have good OL depth. 

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I'd like to cut Crowder and use his 10M to sign JuJu for 16M if we don't get Golladay.

I like Crowder but slot needs to block in this new scheme.

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5 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Looking at that list Van Roten or Lewis (you probably don't want to cut both purely for depth) and Griffin are almost certainly gone.

Mostly agree.  But if we somehow manage to snag Thuney AND Linsley, they can both go.  Or if we end up drafting a guy like Vera-Tucker.  I'm greedy.  I want the OLine overhaul.

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4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Mostly agree.  But if we somehow manage to snag Thuney AND Linsley, they can both go.  Or if we end up drafting a guy like Vera-Tucker.  I'm greedy.  I want the OLine overhaul.

I agree with that, I'm operating under the assumption that we either sign Thuney or go with Linsley and another less expensive piece.

I'm absolutely fine dumping both if we're aggressively going after multiple OL in FA.

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9 minutes ago, nycdan said:

With Maye tagged, here is where things stand.  Jets are #2 in the league at $67.3M available (based on the current estimate of the cap, which could change).  JAX is at $71.8M, NE is third at $66.5M, and IND comes in fourth at $44.7M.  Not every team is done cutting and tagging yet so things will move around, but it is unlikely that anyone will be in the same neighborhood as NYJ, JAX and NE.

Conversely, there are six teams that are more than $20M in the hole currently, led by NO at $48.8M.  So they have a LOT of work to do still, as do LAR, PHI, KC and ATL.

So where else can the Jets go to add more room if they want?  Here is the list of players with the largest cap numbers.

Player Base Salary Prorated Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
Jamison Crowder $10,000,000 $1,000,000 $11,375,000
$1,000,000
$10,375,000
Marcus Maye $10,496,000 $0 $10,496,000
$0
$10,496,000
George Fant $8,500,000 $1,000,000 $9,850,000
$1,000,000
$8,850,000
Sam Darnold $920,000 $5,019,581 $9,794,266
$9,624,266
$170,000
Connor McGovern $8,000,000 $1,333,333 $9,333,333
$9,333,333
$0
Quinnen Williams $850,000 $5,419,431 $9,046,647
$13,802,471
($4,755,824)
C.J. Mosley $6,000,000 $1,500,000 $7,500,000
$15,500,000
($8,000,000)
Alex Lewis $5,800,000 $833,333 $6,858,333
$833,333
$6,025,000
Mekhi Becton $1,448,457 $2,743,826 $4,192,283
$9,604,568
($5,412,285)
Greg Van Roten $3,000,000 $0 $3,656,250
$250,000
$3,406,250
Ryan Griffin $2,400,000 $500,000 $3,298,438
$950,000
$2,348,438
Christopher Herndon IV $2,183,000 $167,380 $2,350,380
$167,380
$2,183,000
Folorunso Fatukasi $2,183,000 $43,564 $2,226,564
$43,564
$2,183,000

*credit to overthecap.com

 

Of these, the guys that seem most cuttable are:  Crowder, Fant, Lewis, Van Roten and Griffin.

Now clearly a lot depends on what we think we can do to bring in new blood, but let's take them one by one.

Crowder is expensive but he's a stone cold killer in the slot and unless we are signing or drafting someone we think is better, I think he's a keeper this year.  We can't be in the business of cutting the few productive players we have.  

Fant is decent, and flexible on both sides of the OLine.  I think he's easily replaced if we happen to find ourselves in position to sign or draft an OT, so I'll put him on the bubble for now.

Lewis feels like a goner to me.  He has JAG written all over him, and I expect we'll either sign an OG or draft one high, maybe both.  Or we might sign Linsley or draft a Center and slide McGovern out to Guard.  In any case, that's $6M I think we can scoop up.  

Van Roten is another likely casualty if we can do better.  Brought in to literally fill a hole for a year, I don't think he's done anything to warrant sticking around and is probably the first to go between him and Lewis.  We may not lose both but if we can sign one, draft one, and maybe Cam Clark shows some potential sliding inside, we could.  

Finally, Ryan Griffin is another guy who hasn't shown much to make him stick around.  He flashed a bit in 2019, but regressed badly last season.  Some of it can probably attribute to the horrendous coaching but I assume Herndon is the first guy we keep and Griffin is just renting a roster spot.

So let's say we cut those last three.  That adds another $12.8M to the cap which brings us up to just over $80M.  Fant and Crowder could bump that much higher if we do cut one of them loose as well but let's save that for another day.

Now we would have to replace some players, starting with at least one OG, so even if we go wild and get Thuney for $16M/season, we have the room to do it and still be aggressive on a lot of fronts.  While it's never good to grossly overpay on any long term contract, this is the year to do it.  Shoring up one or two OL positions (Linsley and Thuney), bringing in a solid WR, and adding at least one starting caliber Front-7 defender are all financially achievable.  Not all at $15M+ per season, but two of them yes, and another two in the $10M range can all be done.  

So when we're talking about maybe having to give Watson more money if we brought him in, or having to pay a kings ransom for ARob or Thuney, let's not cry too much over Woody's money.  The teardown is complete.  The rebuild really starts now and the guys we bring in this year are the guys we should expect to be riding to the playoffs next year.  

LFGJ.

Great assessment.  

The only clear upgrades for Crowder would be Juju and possibly Curtis Samuel.  They all play in the slot (Juju more so than Crowder or Samuel) but of the free agents, those two are the only ones that look like upgrades.

Fant should still be kept, even if they draft a tackle.  He would serve as a good backup in case the starters get hurt.  Would rather see Fant on the depth chart over Edoga or even a late round rookie.  Unless they really need the cap space (which they shouldn't), Fant should stick around as at least a backup.  

The interior line will probably get shaken up a lot the offseason.  Possibly re-sign Elflein as a backup/temp starter, sign a free agent IOL or two and draft one or two.  Lewis and Van Roten don't look like they fit what the new offensive scheme wants to do.

Griffin should also go.  The Jets can replace him with a younger, cheaper option that has more upside than what he has shown. 

I think Douglas will still go bargain hunting but not on the offensive line.  I'd expect to see former 49ers and Eagles players that may come cheaper (i.e. Sherman, K'Wuan Williams, Jason Verrett, Kyle Hyder, Rasul Douglas, Bourne, Witherspoon, Beathard, Keanu Neal, etc).  Also, I would like to see them bring in locker room players that are going to change the culture.  Not necessarily the players that will be with the Jets long term, but players that can build the foundation for a Saleh locker room.

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kept hearing the joe d plan by design was to suck on purpose  and dump salary to get big free agents to come here-that clearly wont be happening now....

hope the "build through draft" plan works but that will take many years of perfecting drafting as this team has  holes all over 

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12 minutes ago, kmnj said:

kept hearing the joe d plan by design was to suck on purpose  and dump salary to get big free agents to come here-that clearly wont be happening now....

hope the "build through draft" plan works but that will take many years of perfecting drafting as this team has  holes all over 

You have no idea what Free agents are or aren't coming here.  You only seem interested in crapping on JD in every thread you can find.  Thanks for your contribution to this one.

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12 minutes ago, nycdan said:

You have no idea what Free agents are or aren't coming here.  You only seem interested in crapping on JD in every thread you can find.  Thanks for your contribution to this one.

I know the ones we were going to "target" are not hitting the market-the reason we were freeing up all the cap

 

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for an entire year I heard joes plan was to dump salary to get the big name free agents-that plan failed -is it joes fault teams used the tags-nope but the result is we are not getting them which many were counting on.

second aspect of the "plan" build through the draft--Joe has all of the tools to do it-lets see if he can

 

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4 minutes ago, kmnj said:

I know the ones we were going to "target" are not hitting the market-the reason we were freeing up all the cap

 

Thuney, Golladay, Linsley, Barrett just to name a few.  You are literally making this up out of nothing.  Let the process play out and then if we end up with nobody, you can go full metal jacket on JD and you'll have company.

 

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1 minute ago, nycdan said:

Thuney, Golladay, Linsley, Barrett just to name a few.  You are literally making this up out of nothing.  Let the process play out and then if we end up with nobody, you can go full metal jacket on JD and you'll have company.

 

fair enough. I think we will end up getting nobody of substance which irks me because of the money I spend and have spend on my tickets for many many years.

I watched folks defend izadick and macs "plans" for years. As a fan I endured maybe the worst team ever last year(thankfully it did not cost me my money this time) but I believe we are heading down the same path.

I hope with all of my heart I am wrong and Joe has the best draft ever

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Just now, kmnj said:

fair enough. I think we will end up getting nobody of substance which irks me because of the money I spend and have spend on my tickets for many many years.

I watched folks defend izadick and macs "plans" for years. As a fan I endured maybe the worst team ever last year(thankfully it did not cost me my money this time) but I believe we are heading down the same path.

I hope with all of my heart I am wrong and Joe has the best draft ever

Fair enough as well.  I totally get the frustration.  I truly don't believe we won't bring in at least one, if not two premium free agents.  If I'm wrong, I'll hold the pitchfork while you hold the torch.

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5 minutes ago, kmnj said:

fair enough. I think we will end up getting nobody of substance which irks me because of the money I spend and have spend on my tickets for many many years.

I watched folks defend izadick and macs "plans" for years. As a fan I endured maybe the worst team ever last year(thankfully it did not cost me my money this time) but I believe we are heading down the same path.

I hope with all of my heart I am wrong and Joe has the best draft ever

Personally, I don't think there's enough to tell with JD yet, but the amount of success people attribute to  him on this board when he has not yet had any is.. silly.

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8 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Fair enough as well.  I totally get the frustration.  I truly don't believe we won't bring in at least one, if not two premium free agents.  If I'm wrong, I'll hold the pitchfork while you hold the torch.

my season ticket invoice is sitting on my counter -writing that check would be easier (especially with covid question marks next year) if I had something to get excited about. I apologize to my joe d negativity which probably is annoying but I cant help myself when guys are crowning him like he is ozzie newsome 

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I wouldn’t cut any more players unless we sign or draft a replacement.

We’re in good shape cap wise. So no need to cut those guys unless we’re able to upgrade said player.

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1 hour ago, nyjbuddy said:

Great assessment.  

The only clear upgrades for Crowder would be Juju and possibly Curtis Samuel.  They all play in the slot (Juju more so than Crowder or Samuel) but of the free agents, those two are the only ones that look like upgrades.

Fant should still be kept, even if they draft a tackle.  He would serve as a good backup in case the starters get hurt.  Would rather see Fant on the depth chart over Edoga or even a late round rookie.  Unless they really need the cap space (which they shouldn't), Fant should stick around as at least a backup.  

The interior line will probably get shaken up a lot the offseason.  Possibly re-sign Elflein as a backup/temp starter, sign a free agent IOL or two and draft one or two.  Lewis and Van Roten don't look like they fit what the new offensive scheme wants to do.

Griffin should also go.  The Jets can replace him with a younger, cheaper option that has more upside than what he has shown. 

I think Douglas will still go bargain hunting but not on the offensive line.  I'd expect to see former 49ers and Eagles players that may come cheaper (i.e. Sherman, K'Wuan Williams, Jason Verrett, Kyle Hyder, Rasul Douglas, Bourne, Witherspoon, Beathard, Keanu Neal, etc).  Also, I would like to see them bring in locker room players that are going to change the culture.  Not necessarily the players that will be with the Jets long term, but players that can build the foundation for a Saleh locker room.

Fant would be a $9MM backup tackle in that case. There will be appropriate mutiny if the Jets played it close to the vest to settle for any meh FA over a serious player, only to pay Fant $9MM to be a swing tackle who sees action in 1-3 games.

The big problem with him is JD guaranteed half of his $ for this year on the 5th day of the season (less than 2 weeks from now) so the more likely situation is they find a replacement FA for RT this year, and cut Fant to lessen that hit by $9MM. Absent that he's more or less locked in as the starter in 2021 in which case don't expect to see them take a tackle earlier than round 3. Douglas wouldn't like the optics of a guy he's paying $9MM - whom he chose over an all-pro - getting relegated to backup. 

Minimum one major iOL FA.

Elflein is fine to add as depth, so long as it's for depth money since injuries are the only acceptable reason to see him starting again. But I'm sensing  - from his bargain shopping last year - JD likes the idea of at least one of his linemen being such a bargain investment (not big money and not a high draft pick). That points to a competition this summer between Elflein, van Roten, Clark, possibly Lewis, and a 2021 pick after round 1 (and probably after pick #33), with the hope that the winner isn't merely King of the Dipshits. Lewis and/or van Roten would have to outright win a starting job to keep their roster spots or they get cut by the end of the summer.

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12 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

I wouldn’t cut any more players unless we sign or draft a replacement.

We’re in good shape cap wise. So no need to cut those guys unless we’re able to upgrade said player.

And they don't need to while they have so much space. The only reason to cut someone in March is after already signing a replacement and/or if there's bonus money or a guarantee that kicks in well before the draft. 

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

Yes, I think all eyes are on NO with Lattimore and Ramzcyk.  They have already done a lot of restructuring but they're just pushing the trouble down the road to 2022 and 2023.  Something has to give.  As they ponder some tough choices, I wonder if a well-timed offer wouldn't convince them to go a certain way.  The problem is, they would be all but guaranteed to get a 3rd rounder for Ramczyk if he leaves, so I'm not sure what it would take to pry him loose but it will probably start with a 2nd rounder.

Update on this.  NO inexplicably used their tag on Safety Marcus Williams.  They are now $58.7M over the cap.

This means that, after a bunch of restructurings, they are in deep doodoo because their options to get back under are severely limited.  If Ramczyk and Lattirmore don't extend their deals, I don't think there's any way they can keep both, and now they can't tag and trade one of them. 

Loomis is either going to earn GM of the year in March/April, or he's going to see that team utterly dismantled.  

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2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Update on this.  NO inexplicably used their tag on Safety Marcus Williams.  They are now $58.7M over the cap.

This means that, after a bunch of restructurings, they are in deep doodoo because their options to get back under are severely limited.  If Ramczyk and Lattirmore don't extend their deals, I don't think there's any way they can keep both, and now they can't tag and trade one of them. 

Loomis is either going to earn GM of the year in March/April, or he's going to see that team utterly dismantled.  

Maybe because it's cheaper to tag a safety, and they feel they have a better chance of carrying him while working out an extension.

The safety tag is $4MM lower (see Maye getting tagged at $11M) because top CB money has been high for years whereas an elite safety made $10MM until 2 seasons ago, and the tag number is (roughly) the average of the last 5 years' top-5-average numbers. 

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Does this reflect the Trent Brown trade?

I don’t think Crowder gets cut - I feel like Douglas flips him for a late round pick though. He’s good and semi reasonably priced but I really really don’t think he’s a scheme fit and I think it’s better to move on before there’s a schematic mismatch and let someone fill that kind of a role than after and have him have a bad year and then waste a chance to develop someone.

By bad scheme fit I mean as opposed to Gase who was always in three wide or more the Shanahan style system that was run in SF and what the new OC’s brother ran in GB had two wide about half the time. I just don’t think a slot only like Crowder really fits. Better to have an explosive rookie who can make plays with the ball in his hands with a TBD long term role and development plan as the slot guy and actually let him play the third receiver role IMO.

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1 hour ago, kmnj said:

fair enough. I think we will end up getting nobody of substance which irks me because of the money I spend and have spend on my tickets for many many years.

I watched folks defend izadick and macs "plans" for years. As a fan I endured maybe the worst team ever last year(thankfully it did not cost me my money this time) but I believe we are heading down the same path.

I hope with all of my heart I am wrong and Joe has the best draft ever

What do you consider substance?  Substance in March isn't necessarily substance in November and December.  Even the Jets lamest GMs signed "substance" in Mosley, Bell, Trumaine Johnson.  I don't care if we sign big guys or lesser guys.  I only care if they can play.  I agree that Douglas ability as GM is still in question, but there is as little reason to blast him as to crown him.  

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47 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Maybe because it's cheaper to tag a safety, and they feel they have a better chance of carrying him while working out an extension.

The safety tag is $4MM lower (see Maye getting tagged at $11M) because top CB money has been high for years whereas an elite safety made $10MM until 2 seasons ago, and the tag number is (roughly) the average of the last 5 years' top-5-average numbers. 

Yes.  Safety tags are cheap this year, although if Jamal signs a monster deal, it will pump that number up (I forget when the deadline is to have it count this year).

But the problem for them is that if he doesn't agree to a deal that lowers the cap hit this year, they are in a pickle.

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17 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Yes.  Safety tags are cheap this year, although if Jamal signs a monster deal, it will pump that number up (I forget when the deadline is to have it count this year).

But the problem for them is that if he doesn't agree to a deal that lowers the cap hit this year, they are in a pickle.

lol better them than us

I thought the deadline was for the prior season, so in theory then it'd have to be before March 17th if the 16th and prior are still the 2020 season.

But even then, since it's too late for them to tear up his 2020 amount already paid, then just his signing bonus money would get added to his 2020 number. I don't think they could even do it, since they have no cap space left for 2020 to put any amount of an Adams extension (i.e. one amortized year of signing bonus) onto their 2020 cap. 

He's in his 5th year option at $10MM, so there's little incentive for Seattle to bust their nut on extending him with a huge bonus before they've done anything in free agency anyhow. 

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

lol better them than us

I thought the deadline was for the prior season, so in theory then it'd have to be before March 17th if the 16th and prior are still the 2020 season.

But even then, since it's too late for them to tear up his 2020 amount already paid, then just his signing bonus money would get added to his 2020 number. I don't think they could even do it, since they have no cap space left for 2020 to put any amount of an Adams extension (i.e. one amortized year of signing bonus) onto their 2020 cap. 

He's in his 5th year option at $10MM, so there's little incentive for Seattle to bust their nut on extending him with a huge bonus before they've done anything in free agency anyhow. 

Jamal Adams getting paid $10M for one season watching Marcus Maye sign a 4-year deal.

Priceless.

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