Pauline: Jets leaning towards Zach Wilson

[GreenFish]

4 hours ago, football guy said:

I think the issue is people need to stop evaluating from a marketing/emotional perspective RE: QB. Usually you think "the team needs to be absolutely sold on the QB... the HC needs to be paired with his QB", but I think they truly look at this as a team sport. They may like some aspects of having Wilson (rookie deal, no NFL warts, clean slate, unique talent), as they like aspects of having Darnold. There's a real possibility that the Jets come away more impressed with Wilson yet still stick with Darnold. Fans would criticize that, especially if it didn't work out, but I think ultimately the Jets want to figure out what builds them the better team... as I've said 10000 times now, which is more valuable: QB Darnold + value of #2, or QB #2 + value of Darnold?

If the Jets finish their evals and come away feeling Zach Wilson is head-and-shoulders above what Darnold can be AND get a good offer for Darnold, I'd think they make that move. But not because of the marketing or the desire to get a "face of the franchise" or to "pair the HC/QB"... hell not even due to Darnold's production, but because they determine that QB Wilson + the value for Darnold in a trade is better than QB Darnold + the value for #2 in a trade. 

Based on rumors, Darnold for a 2nd. A realistic trade back is 2 for 8, 2nd rd and 2022 1st.

So it’s basically 

Darnold + Pitts + 2022 1st OR

Wilson

Depending on how you view those two QBs, that’s a tough decision.

[JetBlue]

4 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

Say that to his face. I dare you.

 

 

What?! What!? You need to back the F**k up...  This is Mehki's house... 

[Wonderboy]

1 hour ago, pointman said:

Statistically speaking, the chances of a shark bite at the beach are significantly lower than one would normally think. Also, trade Becton a known commodity for one that is unknown based on hype, WHILE spending our #2 on a tackle when we have no one to throw the ball? Get outtttttaa heeeere.

 

 

See you at the beach 

[pointman]

20 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

See you at the beach 

 

About the same odds as Sam becoming a top 20 QB in the league.

[JohnnyLV]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'll be quite honest with you, I don't think he's either of those numbers.

 

Why though? He is in pictures towering over Brees and others where he looks the same size as Fields. I just don't get why people are still so insistent he is Doug Flutie sized- it makes zero sense to me.

 

[JohnnyLV]

5 hours ago, slimjasi said:

It's more the fact that he has had multiple surgeries before playing an NFL game. I just think surgeries have a way of compounding. Some guys need surgery after surgery, others don't. 

I'm definitely excited by his potential. 

QBs have labrum work all the time. see: Trevor Lawrence. You don't hear about them because in general they are not difficult to play through. They have off season surgery which goes under the radar. And Zack's was just wear and tear from throwing a football repeatedly faster than his body could support. it was NOT an injury. Plus Brees had a horrific labrum tear and a shoulder separation and has played on it 15 additional years. In fact he has shown to be amazingly resillient in actually not getting injured from contact.

[Greensleeves]

2 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Based on rumors, Darnold for a 2nd. A realistic trade back is 2 for 8, 2nd rd and 2022 1st.

So it’s basically 

Darnold + Pitts + 2022 1st OR

Wilson

Depending on how you view those two QBs, that’s a tough decision.

Wilson plus a second for Sam

[GreenFish]

26 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

Wilson plus a second for Sam

I’m assuming we’d get the panthers 2nd rounder plus a 2022 1st in a trade back to 8. So the 2nd for Darnold washes out.

[Bronxville Jets Fan]

3 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Based on rumors, Darnold for a 2nd. A realistic trade back is 2 for 8, 2nd rd and 2022 1st.

So it’s basically 

Darnold + Pitts + 2022 1st OR

Wilson

Depending on how you view those two QBs, that’s a tough decision.

I wouldn’t say Pitts falling to 8 is realistic at all.  Anything can happen, but my money is on him not making it out of the top 5.  If the Jets were to trade back to 8, I think Slater is a much more realistic selection.

[Bronx]

3 hours ago, JetBlue said:

 

 

What?! What!? You need to back the F**k up...  This is Mehki's house... 

Sewell and Becton together would be nicer.

[Wonderboy]

4 hours ago, JetBlue said:

 

 

What?! What!? You need to back the F**k up...  This is Mehki's house... 

And this is his vacation home

[Mogglez]

For anyone interested, the last time I was given information (roughly two weeks ago) it was 60/40 in favor of keeping Sam and trading down.  That being said, those are extremely different odds I was told months ago.  

My own personal opinion based on that?  We’ll probably take a QB.  As the process has gone on, the gap in those odds has closed a drastic amount, and I can’t help but feel that they’re just going to decide to hit the reset button.  I don’t know if there are currently any concrete offers on the table, but I wonder if they already know what they can get for Darnold and are comfortable with it.  Lance had a pretty good day today.  I expect Zach Wilson and Justin Fields to do even better.  When push finally comes to shove, I personally believe Darnold will be moved and I think Zach Wilson will be the pick at #2.

[JoJoTownsell1]

Do we really need pauline to tell us the obvious?

Jets need a QB

Wilson is widely regarded as best QB after Lawrence and worthy of the 2nd pick

Stands to reason the Jets are "leaning"that way.

Would be impressed if he told us what Jets will do at 23. 

[Jets Things]

4 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Do we really need pauline to tell us the obvious?

Jets need a QB

Wilson is widely regarded as best QB after Lawrence and worthy of the 2nd pick

Stands to reason the Jets are "leaning"that way.

Would be impressed if he told us what Jets will do at 23. 

Hopefully the pick will be used on someone who can block or catch passes from Watson. 

[jetstream23]

The only thing more risky for a GM than passing on a QB at #2 who turns out to be very good is getting rid of a QB you already have and watching that QB be more successful someplace else than the player who you replaced him with.

The Jets really need to do their homework here.  Can the Jets put Sam Darnold, the guy who was on a good trajectory at the end of his rookie year playing in a Shanahan-like system under Jeremy Bates, back on that same path after royally screwing him up by degrading the offensive line, hiring a HC that essentially played him the wrong way in the wrong type of system, never hiring a QB coach, and having him fake hand-offs to 63 year old Frank Gore in order to hit Braxton Berrios on slant routes? Can the Jets un-f*ck what they f*cked up?

The essential question the Jets have to ask themselves is this - What is the probability that Zach Wilson becomes AT LEAST as good as Sam Darnold?  The bar is pretty low given how Sam has played these past two years.  But if you can say with 80-90% confidence that Zach Wilson won't be any worse than Sam by his second season then you take him, especially considering the financial aspects of the decision.

[Cbucco19]

31 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

For anyone interested, the last time I was given information (roughly two weeks ago) it was 60/40 in favor of keeping Sam and trading down.  That being said, those are extremely different odds I was told months ago.  

My own personal opinion based on that?  We’ll probably take a QB.  As the process has gone on, the gap in those odds has closed a drastic amount, and I can’t help but feel that they’re just going to decide to hit the reset button.  I don’t know if there are currently any concrete offers on the table, but I wonder if they already know what they can get for Darnold and are comfortable with it.  Lance had a pretty good day today.  I expect Zach Wilson and Justin Fields to do even better.  When push finally comes to shove, I personally believe Darnold will be moved and I think Zach Wilson will be the pick at #2.

100% agree with you . Jets will be drafting Wilson

[JohnnyLV]

9 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

The only thing more risky for a GM than passing on a QB at #2 who turns out to be very good is getting rid of a QB you already have and watching that QB be more successful someplace else than than the player who you replaced him with.

The Jets really need to do their homework here.  Can the Jets put Sam Darnold, the guy who was on a good trajectory at the end of his rookie year playing in a Shanahan-like system under Jeremy Bate, back on that same path after royally screwing him up by degrading the offensive line, hiring a HC that essentially played him the wrong way in the wrong type of system, never hiring a QB coach, and having him fake hand-offs to 63 year old Frank Gore in order to hit Braxton Berrios on slant routes? Can the Jets un-f*ck what they f*cked up?

The essential question the Jets have to ask themselves is this - What is the probability that Zach Wilson becomes AT LEAST as good as Sam Darnold?  The bar is pretty low given how Sam has played these past two years.  But if you can say with 80-90% confidence that Zach Wilson won't be any worse than Sam by his second season then you take him, especially considering the financial aspects of the decision.

Wilson to me seems to be better as a prospect than Sam in all areas. Sam had accuracy and turnover issues in college that you just do not see with Wlson. I just cannot imagine Wilson not being very good in the NFL. Every talent you want is there. I agree with the passing on a QB option, but even if Sam develops somewhere else it will reflect on Gase not JD.

[jetstream23]

14 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Wilson to me seems to be better as a prospect than Sam in all areas. Sam had accuracy and turnover issues in college that you just do not see with Wlson. I just cannot imagine Wilson not being very good in the NFL. Every talent you want is there. I agree with the passing on a QB option, but even if Sam develops somewhere else it will reflect on Gase not JD.

I honestly have no idea, but the two concerns I have about Wilson and possibly the reasons he didn't turn the ball over are that the level of competition he faced was pretty poor and his protection was practically great.  He won't have clean pockets in the NFL like he did in college, and most of the defenders he faced will never play a NFL game in their lives.  That gives me pause.  It's also the reason I like Fields a little bit better than many other people.  I still don't think Fields is worthy of a Top 3 pick, but that guy showed he's a gamer, he's tough, he has an arm and he can run...and he did a lot of it at the highest levels vs. the best teams in the nation loaded with NFL talent.

 

 

 

[JoJoTownsell1]

21 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I honestly have no idea, but the two concerns I have about Wilson and possibly the reasons he didn't turn the ball over are that the level of competition he faced was pretty poor and his protection was practically great.  He won't have clean pockets in the NFL like he did in college, and most of the defenders he faced will never play a NFL game in their lives.  That gives me pause.  It's also the reason I like Fields a little bit better than many other people.  I still don't think Fields is worthy of a Top 3 pick, but that guy showed he's a gamer, he's tough, he has an arm and he can run...and he did a lot of it at the highest levels vs. the best teams in the nation loaded with NFL talent.

 

 

 

What was Tua's grade vs power 5 competition as opposed to Justin Herbert?

Pretty sure Tua had much better numbers. Pretty sure Tua looked way better against good schools than Josh allen. 

AJ mccarron and Greg mcleroy also looked great at bama.

How much seperation are BYU or Wyoming WRs getting against power 5 DBs?

I'm not saying jones isn't good or that Wilson is great, but I could care less about these numbers when they ignore the talent level of the supporting cast for each QB.

[GreekJet]

30 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I honestly have no idea, but the two concerns I have about Wilson and possibly the reasons he didn't turn the ball over are that the level of competition he faced was pretty poor and his protection was practically great.  He won't have clean pockets in the NFL like he did in college, and most of the defenders he faced will never play a NFL game in their lives.  That gives me pause.  It's also the reason I like Fields a little bit better than many other people.  I still don't think Fields is worthy of a Top 3 pick, but that guy showed he's a gamer, he's tough, he has an arm and he can run...and he did a lot of it at the highest levels vs. the best teams in the nation loaded with NFL talent.

 

 

 

Ohio St 

Clemson

Alabama 

BYU

 

[JohnnyLV]

26 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I honestly have no idea, but the two concerns I have about Wilson and possibly the reasons he didn't turn the ball over are that the level of competition he faced was pretty poor and his protection was practically great.  He won't have clean pockets in the NFL like he did in college, and most of the defenders he faced will never play a NFL game in their lives.  That gives me pause.  It's also the reason I like Fields a little bit better than many other people.  I still don't think Fields is worthy of a Top 3 pick, but that guy showed he's a gamer, he's tough, he has an arm and he can run...and he did a lot of it at the highest levels vs. the best teams in the nation loaded with NFL talent.

My view is the same as Simms on competition. A throw is a throw. If you hit an open receiver perfectly in stride it is the same as in the NFL. If you throw a tight window throw accurately it would be the same in the NFL.

Second he wasn't very good against lesser competition he was ALL TIME good, Easily best player on the field good,

It makes me think of Dwight Gooden in baseball. He was completely dominant in A ball -I think he had like 300 strike outs in 191 innings or something like that. But he was facing inferior hitters. How would he fare in the Majors? Well his throws were so good that the major leaguers couldnt hit them either. Same thing with Wilson- his throws are so accurate with so much timing placement and velocity that they will be effective anywhere.

Also there are some misconceptions about Wilson. His time to release was faster than the other QBs and on par with the NFL while Lawrence and Fields were well behind . Also (not 100% on this) I believe that Fields had longer to throw on average than Wilson. People want to use all these reasons to explain away Zack's success yet no one else has ever done what he did against similar competition and he was on one of the least talented team in college football.

[GreenFish]

2 hours ago, Bronxville Jets Fan said:

I wouldn’t say Pitts falling to 8 is realistic at all.  Anything can happen, but my money is on him not making it out of the top 5.  If the Jets were to trade back to 8, I think Slater is a much more realistic selection.

That’s true. I could see Slater being the pick. He’d either make a great book end tackle or pair with Becton to make one hell of a left side of our oline.

[BroadwayBen]

14 hours ago, Jdub03 said:

I wonder if these are planned leaks to get either Cincinnati to come up for Sewell, or QB hungry team to come for Zack.

It really is awesome how valuable the #2 pick still is

[FidelioJet]

4 minutes ago, BroadwayBen said:

It really is awesome how valuable the #2 pick still is

It's valuable to a QB needy team.

The Jets may very well be the MOST QB needy team in the NFL. Jets will take a QB at 2.

[Bruce Harper]

My view is the same as Simms on competition. A throw is a throw. If you hit an open receiver perfectly in stride it is the same as in the NFL. If you throw a tight window throw accurately it would be the same in the NFL.
Second he wasn't very good against lesser competition he was ALL TIME good, Easily best player on the field good,
It makes me think of Dwight Gooden in baseball. He was completely dominant in A ball -I think he had like 300 strike outs in 191 innings or something like that. But he was facing inferior hitters. How would he fare in the Majors? Well his throws were so good that the major leaguers couldnt hit them either. Same thing with Wilson- his throws are so accurate with so much timing placement and velocity that they will be effective anywhere.
Also there are some misconceptions about Wilson. His time to release was faster than the other QBs and on par with the NFL while Lawrence and Fields were well behind . Also (not 100% on this) I believe that Fields had longer to throw on average than Wilson. People want to use all these reasons to explain away Zack's success yet no one else has ever done what he did against similar competition and he was on one of the least talented team in college football.

I mostly agree with you but he had some talent around him. The OL was pretty good and he had some solid receivers.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[BroadwayBen]

58 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

It's valuable to a QB needy team.

The Jets may very well be the MOST QB needy team in the NFL. Jets will take a QB at 2.

And i'm more than okay with that. I honestly am the most optimistic i've ever been. There is NO way it gets worse than last year. Whatever decision we choose I truthfully feel like we can only go up

[BroadwayRay]

 

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

I honestly have no idea, but the two concerns I have about Wilson and possibly the reasons he didn't turn the ball over are that the level of competition he faced was pretty poor and his protection was practically great.  He won't have clean pockets in the NFL like he did in college, and most of the defenders he faced will never play a NFL game in their lives.  That gives me pause.  It's also the reason I like Fields a little bit better than many other people.  I still don't think Fields is worthy of a Top 3 pick, but that guy showed he's a gamer, he's tough, he has an arm and he can run...and he did a lot of it at the highest levels vs. the best teams in the nation loaded with NFL talent.

 

 

 

I don’t get the competition argument. Can someone help me here? 

Yes, he played against crappy defensive linemen, linebackers, safeties, and corners. BUT he also threw to crappy WRs, handed off to crappy running backs, and was protected by crappy offensive linemen, right? The logic cuts both ways . . . doesn’t it? 
 

That’s why we have seen great NFL players come out of small programs for as long as the draft has existed and why we will continue to . . . 
 

and btw, Wilson isn’t even the QB that I want at 2.  I just don’t get the “He faced poor competition” argument. 

[BurnleyJet]

The drop off from Trevor Lawrence to the next QB is sickening. I’d take Fields he’s big athletic, played at a high level with a cannon. Wilson looks like a little boy and will get murdered behind our line.  

[JohnnyLV]

12 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

The drop off from Trevor Lawrence to the next QB is sickening. I’d take Fields he’s big athletic, played at a high level with a cannon. Wilson looks like a little boy and will get murdered behind our line.  

Very insightful post especially 2 after an insider says that at least 6 NFL HC/OC combos think Wilson is better than Lawrence. So your scouting is based on how manly he looks. Got it

[Jetsfan80]

7 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The only thing more risky for a GM than passing on a QB at #2 who turns out to be very good is getting rid of a QB you already have and watching that QB be more successful someplace else than than the player who you replaced him with.

Considering this has never happened for the Jets before, and Darnold has been poor independent of any of the massive pile of excuses thrown his way (such as “on target %”, where he ranked 33rd, and QB rating when not under pressure, also dead last), Douglas ought to feel very comfortable absorbing that risk.

What HAS happened to the Jets at least 3-4 times has been passing on a QB that ended up great to instead rely on the failure pile of QBs already on the roster.

The latter risk is the far greater one.

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

I honestly have no idea, but the two concerns I have about Wilson and possibly the reasons he didn't turn the ball over are that the level of competition he faced was pretty poor and his protection was practically great.  He won't have clean pockets in the NFL like he did in college, and most of the defenders he faced will never play a NFL game in their lives.  That gives me pause.  It's also the reason I like Fields a little bit better than many other people.  I still don't think Fields is worthy of a Top 3 pick, but that guy showed he's a gamer, he's tough, he has an arm and he can run...and he did a lot of it at the highest levels vs. the best teams in the nation loaded with NFL talent.

 

 

 

But Wilson was “good” facing Coastal Carolina?

[CrazyCarl40]

If Joe D. wants to anchor his career to Wilson, so be it. It’s a make or break move for him and he knows it. It’ll be more important the tile am he puts around the young QB though. And I haven’t been that impressed with that aspect but there is still a full offseason or two to change my mind. 

[DetroitRed]

21 hours ago, HighPitch said:

Actually a good idea if they bit

You are guaranteed one positive reaction on this post

[HighPitch]

So to sum this up:

zach will not to successful in the nfl because he played with the lowest level of competition

And....

 

Mac jones will not to successful in the nfl because he played with the highest level of competition