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Pauline: Jets leaning towards Zach Wilson


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11 hours ago, Mogglez said:

For anyone interested, the last time I was given information (roughly two weeks ago) it was 60/40 in favor of keeping Sam and trading down.  That being said, those are extremely different odds I was told months ago.  

My own personal opinion based on that?  We’ll probably take a QB.  As the process has gone on, the gap in those odds has closed a drastic amount, and I can’t help but feel that they’re just going to decide to hit the reset button.  I don’t know if there are currently any concrete offers on the table, but I wonder if they already know what they can get for Darnold and are comfortable with it.  Lance had a pretty good day today.  I expect Zach Wilson and Justin Fields to do even better.  When push finally comes to shove, I personally believe Darnold will be moved and I think Zach Wilson will be the pick at #2.

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I think the issue is people need to stop evaluating from a marketing/emotional perspective RE: QB. Usually you think "the team needs to be absolutely sold on the QB... the HC needs to be paired with h

In order for any trade scenario to work, other teams have to believe that the Jets are absolutely committed to taking Wilson in the 2 spot. Otherwise, the Texans, etc, could sit back and just cut a de

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11 hours ago, Mogglez said:

For anyone interested, the last time I was given information (roughly two weeks ago) it was 60/40 in favor of keeping Sam and trading down.  That being said, those are extremely different odds I was told months ago.  

My own personal opinion based on that?  We’ll probably take a QB.  As the process has gone on, the gap in those odds has closed a drastic amount, and I can’t help but feel that they’re just going to decide to hit the reset button.  I don’t know if there are currently any concrete offers on the table, but I wonder if they already know what they can get for Darnold and are comfortable with it.  Lance had a pretty good day today.  I expect Zach Wilson and Justin Fields to do even better.  When push finally comes to shove, I personally believe Darnold will be moved and I think Zach Wilson will be the pick at #2.

As always. Thanks for sharing!

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10 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

I honestly have no idea, but the two concerns I have about Wilson and possibly the reasons he didn't turn the ball over are that the level of competition he faced was pretty poor and his protection was practically great.  He won't have clean pockets in the NFL like he did in college, and most of the defenders he faced will never play a NFL game in their lives.  That gives me pause.  It's also the reason I like Fields a little bit better than many other people.  I still don't think Fields is worthy of a Top 3 pick, but that guy showed he's a gamer, he's tough, he has an arm and he can run...and he did a lot of it at the highest levels vs. the best teams in the nation loaded with NFL talent.

 

 

 

You can also say Zach Wilson had no nfl talent on his team. Right??  Goes both ways. 

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48 minutes ago, sec143dmf said:

You can also say Zach Wilson had no nfl talent on his team. Right??  Goes both ways. 

Doesn't he have a few teammates draftable from the oline? One is pretty well thought of, can't remember his name.

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1 hour ago, Jdub03 said:

Doesn't he have a few teammates draftable from the oline? One is pretty well thought of, can't remember his name.

I don't know but he can't be any good.  He didn't play a tough enough schedule.  So no way he can be a quality pro.  

 

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7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Considering this has never happened for the Jets before, and Darnold has been poor independent of any of the massive pile of excuses thrown his way (such as “on target %”, where he ranked 33rd, and QB rating when not under pressure, also dead last), Douglas ought to feel very comfortable absorbing that risk.

What HAS happened to the Jets at least 3-4 times has been passing on a QB that ended up great to instead rely on the failure pile of QBs already on the roster.

The latter risk is the far greater one.

Then it seems like a lock as to what the Jets will do.

 

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4 hours ago, sec143dmf said:

You can also say Zach Wilson had no nfl talent on his team. Right??  Goes both ways. 

BYU Football: Seven Cougars Make PFF's Top 300 NFL Draft Big Board
  • School - No. of prospects in the PFF 300. ...
  • Zach Wilson - #2. ...
  • Brady Christensen - #150. ...
  • Tristen Hoge - #249. ...
  • Khyiris Tonga - #251. ...
  • Dax Milne - #263. ...
  • Chris Wilcox - #282. ...
  • Matt Bushman - #283.
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13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes, trade for Watson. We agree.  😊

I know Watson has his preferred list but since he's a top 5 QB I wonder if the Jags would offer Trever and some picks because no college QB is a sure thing right??

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16 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The only thing more risky for a GM than passing on a QB at #2 who turns out to be very good is getting rid of a QB you already have and watching that QB be more successful someplace else than the player who you replaced him with.

Not really. Because one goes with conventional wisdom and the other doesn't -- and one re-starts the clock and the other doesn't. That doesn't even account for the fact that sticking with Sam is much riskier as the odds of one of the QBs taken after Lawrence (because you'll be second guessed on all three of them) being great is much, much higher than the odds of Darnold being great at this point, regardless of what team he's on.

16 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The essential question the Jets have to ask themselves is this - What is the probability that Zach Wilson becomes AT LEAST as good as Sam Darnold?  

Pretty close to 100%, honestly. I'd say 90-95% -- unless you think he's truly a lazy headcase or just doesn't have the tools to play, neither of which seems to be the case. Darnold has simply been bad enough that it would be difficult for Wilson not to eclipse his three year performance without being a monumental bust.

 

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2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Not really. Because one goes with conventional wisdom and the other doesn't -- and one re-starts the clock and the other doesn't. That doesn't even account for the fact that sticking with Sam is much riskier as the odds of one of the QBs taken after Lawrence (because you'll be second guessed on all three of them) being great is much, much higher than the odds of Darnold being great at this point, regardless of what team he's on.

Fair point.

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Pretty close to 100%, honestly. I'd say 90-95% -- unless you think he's truly a lazy headcase or just doesn't have the tools to play, neither of which seems to be the case. Darnold has simply been bad enough that it would be difficult for Wilson not to eclipse his three year performance without being a monumental bust.

 

Every draft has its Josh Allen taken a bit too late and a Josh Rosen taken 6 rounds too early.

I hope it's a slam dunk that Wilson is better than Darnold if we take him, but nothing is a slam dunk.

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2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Pretty close to 100%, honestly. I'd say 90-95% -- unless you think he's truly a lazy headcase or just doesn't have the tools to play, neither of which seems to be the case. Darnold has simply been bad enough that it would be difficult for Wilson not to eclipse his three year performance without being a monumental bust.

 

I truly believe this^.   Even though Sam looks linebacker sturdier and has a bigger frame, I have not seen him work out like Zach Wilson, and its not like he has not gotten hurt either.   

If I am Woody and JD and want to have fun next year, draft Wilson, keep Darnold, have them compete.  Trade Darnold at the end of the season (with Tag) or mid-season.  

Look at the Titans, Bucs and Jaguars.  They had their high pick QBs and kept them around for 5 years because they were not picking to have a choice.  Honestly, if the Jets were picking 8th instead of 2nd, the call would be to pick up Darnold's 5th year option or sign another QB-maybe Trubisky, while trying to draft someone (Maybe Jones).  

Draft Wilson, draft CB, WR, LB, OL and RB, sign edge, OL and WR, and compete this season!  

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5 hours ago, Jdub03 said:

Doesn't he have a few teammates draftable from the oline? One is pretty well thought of, can't remember his name.

Brady Christensen.  He is a pretty good LT for the level he's playing at, and is entering the draft.  Don't know if he'll be drafted, but probably in round 6-7.

He was owned in the Coastal Carolina game (as most of BYU's OL was) by #94 Jeffrey Gunther.   Gunther hit or hurried Wilson around 50% of the throws.  As I recall he had 2 roughing the passer calls against him.  If it were the NFL he would have had 4-5 calls against him.  

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4 hours ago, Savage69 said:
BYU Football: Seven Cougars Make PFF's Top 300 NFL Draft Big Board
  • School - No. of prospects in the PFF 300. ...
  • Zach Wilson - #2. ...
  • Brady Christensen - #150. ...
  • Tristen Hoge - #249. ...
  • Khyiris Tonga - #251. ...
  • Dax Milne - #263. ...
  • Chris Wilcox - #282. ...
  • Matt Bushman - #283.

If we go by these rankings Zach Wilson is clearly the pic that should be made by the Jets

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15 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Very insightful post especially 2 after an insider says that at least 6 NFL HC/OC combos think Wilson is better than Lawrence. So your scouting is based on how manly he looks. Got it

Let’s see how much of a World beater he is. Plus Football is still a mans game.

Low level of competition, and he’s a skinny kid. It’s going to work out well, I’m sure. Plus I could have out drafted a lot of franchises it’s a crap shot.

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Just now, BurnleyJet said:

Let’s see how much of a World beater he is. Plus Football is still a mans game.

Low level of competition, and he’s a skinny kid. It’s going to work out well, I’m sure. Plus I could have out drafted a lot of franchises it’s a crap shot.

Walking into an NFL locker room looking like a moist weenie punter.

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1 minute ago, BurnleyJet said:

He’s got a pot belly too, I don’t see this “special” B.S.

Roughneck Bills d-linemen are gonna go all French Revolution on his rich-boy boujie ass

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4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Roughneck Bills d-linemen are gonna go all French Revolution on his rich-boy boujie ass

I’ve dated girls that aren’t as feminine as this guy. If he comes here he’s getting broken by week 3.

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22 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

If we go by these rankings Zach Wilson is clearly the pic that should be made by the Jets

That's great but it's only relevant if you compare it to how many of PFF's top 300 include players Zack played against this season. Is there many of utha's performing arts college defensive backs ranked high on their board for example?

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14 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

I don't get it -----the issue concerning Zack Wilson and weak competition is not that he played weak competition but he stunk while playing weak competition!

Indeed at the beginning of this last season BYU essentially stripped Wilson of his starting position because was was so awful! He then won the QB starting position on a weak team against competition no one on this board can name, and had a GREAT season!  Than is what worries me about Zack Wilson!

Again Wilson essentially had one good year, in an aborted season against weak teams whom he did not play well against previously. This is concerning... why is this so hard for people to fathom.

The idea that Wilson is some kind of can't miss prospect based on that record is mind boggling to me and I am not AGAINST the Jets drafting him but folks have to be realistic!!!

Exaggerate much? He wasn’t “awful” in 2019, but yeah, he didn’t play well enough to be handed the starting position in 2020. 2019 was also a season in which he was recovering from preseason shoulder surgery and a season in which he suffered a fractured thumb.  If you want to ignore those factors, be my guest. But with what I saw from him in 2020, I’m not bothered by his 2019season at all. 

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15 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Like Zach Morris’s head on Screech’s body

You've stepped over tougher guys than Zach on the way to a fight ehhh R3xxy?

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13 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

I don't get it -----the issue concerning Zack Wilson and weak competition is not that he played weak competition but he stunk while playing weak competition!

Indeed at the beginning of this last season BYU essentially stripped Wilson of his starting position because was was so awful! He then won the QB starting position on a weak team against competition no one on this board can name, and had a GREAT season!  Than is what worries me about Zack Wilson!

Again Wilson essentially had one good year, in an aborted season against weak teams whom he did not play well against previously. This is concerning... why is this so hard for people to fathom.

The idea that Wilson is some kind of can't miss prospect based on that record is mind boggling to me and I am not AGAINST the Jets drafting him but folks have to be realistic!!!

Exactly, I’d sooner take Fields or trade down for Trey Lance.

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20 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

I don't get it -----the issue concerning Zack Wilson and weak competition is not that he played weak competition but he stunk while playing weak competition!

Indeed at the beginning of this last season BYU essentially stripped Wilson of his starting position because was was so awful! He then won the QB starting position on a weak team against competition no one on this board can name, and had a GREAT season!  Than is what worries me about Zack Wilson!

Again Wilson essentially had one good year, in an aborted season against weak teams whom he did not play well against previously. This is concerning... why is this so hard for people to fathom.

The idea that Wilson is some kind of can't miss prospect based on that record is mind boggling to me and I am not AGAINST the Jets drafting him but folks have to be realistic!!!

This 

 

Great points 

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36 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

why is this so hard for people to fathom.

Maybe because you made up virtually everything you just said? 

- He was never stripped of his starting position, "essentially" is not "actually". It didnt happen, it was simply a run of the mill college camp battle that happens every year with 95% of college teams. 

- He only played the same team once from 2019-2020, so he couldn't have "sucked previously against all the same weak teams", and that was San Diego state, and he obliterated them the second time he faced them. 

- He didnt stink against said awful competition. He accounted for 14 TDs and 1 turnover in his first 4 games alone in 2020. 

- The season wasnt "aborted", they played 11 games, double the amount Justin Fields did, and even volunteered along with his entire team to play an extra game on short notice. One of the few teams in college football to play an entire season with just 1 aborted game. 

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