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My theory on JD- You may not like it this year


Wit

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1 hour ago, Wit said:

So it’s pretty obvious to me that JD took a long term deal so he could put the team in the right track. That means he’s going to continue being cheap. Good teams plug and play. They develop a scheme and an ability and a culture of winning. Sure, certain positions need to be superstar level, but otherwise they will develop their own stars or push players to be better.

JD may make a littlE splash but he is going to continue being cheap as balls and looking and praying for diamonds in the rough in free agency. He will build through the draft and let the 30 somethings go to some other sucker team. A team that the Jets were. 
 

JD can be frugal with future cap space by front loading free agent contracts. 

So while JD may not be going all out in free agency this year (or any year) he also didn't create cap space to never use it. 

Will it be another year of Perriman's, Van Roten's and Mcgovern's? Definitely not. 

And let's remember, the Jets have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds (which include 3 picks in the first 34). So JD can both build through the draft and spend some money in free agency at the same time without deviating from his long term game plan. 

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The key to this offseason will be bringing in players to build the culture.  Ex-Saleh players like Sherman and Williams will help in the locker room and guide the younger players.  They could also go after Ricardo Allen or Keanu Neal, Ulbrich's former players, to help change the culture too.  I think they'll go after free agent players that can lead and then draft the talent that will be groomed under a veteran led locker room. 

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40 minutes ago, Maxman said:

The team had no ticket sales last year. Even if ownership doesn't meddle, they would be well within their rights to say:

Hey let's work on not sucking anymore so we can sell a ticket or three.

Never has a team been more lucky they couldn't sell tickets. I was legitimately pissed off they pumped in fan noise that wasn't booing

Edit: We already had to suffer 13 straight losses with Adam Gase and at that point they decided they couldn't even lose right. Dam shame we where robbed from showing up in person to vent this year

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3 hours ago, Aaron Hernandez said:

You saved last year to spend this year with 183 million dollar cap. You will never have an opportunity like this again. The players didn't want to take a haircut last year to ease the pain on the cap. Teams are going to be cutting people they normally wouldn't just to be compliant and we got the cash to burn

I think that saving last year to prepare for this year was the smart play, but so far it isn’t panning out to be the big advantage that I thought it would.  I know that a lot can still happen in the 3-4 days before free agency starts, but the “bloodbath” of big name players being cut that some predicted for this week hasn’t really happened.  Other than JJ Watt (who was released by request), arguably the highest profile player that I can think of off the top of my head who was cut is Kyle Van Noy.  There are a few others (the KC OLinemen, maybe) who might not have been released other years, but it’s generally still been the usual assortment of players who are some combination of older, injured, or coming off of down years.

The teams who were in the worst trouble have been finding the cap space through massive restructuring of contracts, pushing the damage forward from this year to future years when they expect the cap to recover, especially with the new TV contracts soon to hit.  I’m not sure people thought that teams would be so reckless in doing so (I read today that the Bears’ restructuring of Khalil Mack’s contract could put his cap number over 30M in 2022 and 2023).

Given all that, I’m wondering if there won’t be as many bargains this year as previously thought.  All it takes is competition with one other team in good cap shape to push a free agent’s contract to normal levels.  We may also see a lot of one-year contracts so players can hit the market again next year.

 

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I'm very interested in what the market will be this year.  A down year for Cap space with high growth projected in 22 and beyond.  I don't think we'll see JD with the 18m+ signings. However, I can see him grabbing several players in the 10-15m range. I have my favorites, which are all offense, lol. Mostly, because I'm a tired of watching how inept we were these last few years.

Looking at some APY projections on the interwebs, I think a few target I like, and i'm hoping JD likes to are:

Linsley: 11-13m

Jonnu Smith: 8-10m

Corey Davis: 10-13m

Curtis Samuel: 10-13m

I think they'll target Thuney as well, but personally, I like the value proposition of Linsley better.

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like i said in the other post, i'm tired of the jets bargain shopping.  they have the 2nd most cap space in the nfl with A LOT of very good players out there.  time to spend. get the best OL, WR, EDGE guy out there, then add to it with the draft.  this off season should be opposite the "supplement through the draft" strategy for a multitude of reasons ; money, availabilty, HC hype - time to do it.

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I think the OP is correct, it will be about culture building if this franchise has any chance to turn it around. 

The problem is JD has egg on his face from last year. With last year's pre-season plan of a modest spend in 2020 to prep for growth in 2021, he had no idea that he would strike out on most of his free agents. Use injury as an excuse if you like, I wouldn't.  He was even quoted at the beginning of the season as saying The Jets were ticked off by the pre-season prognosis of the press and that they would surprise a few people.

He was right they did surprise a few people with their two win season of excuses.

The right course of action was and is to ignore the outside noise. I hope he does but the pressure while small is slowly beginning to show on that gauge. Despite Douglas's long term job security he likely understands the time is approaching for some modest success in terms of free agents.

We all hope his group-think collaboration with Robert Saleh on the current roster, draftees and free agents (Douglas believes in a collaborative effort) is more successful than with Adam Gase.   With last years mess who was to blame? Was it all on Douglas or did he listen to Gase too much? Here's hoping Douglas the ex-lineman can sign a decent centre or guard this year.

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While in a normal offseason I would agree, this year is different. Normally, top Free agents get overpaid. This year I expect better value across the board. More of these top free agents will sign within a range that’s considered reasonable and not an overpay.

Im not expecting he goes all Macc on us. But our offseason will appear more aggressive because JD has more leverage.

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3 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Has JD proven anything yet????   I like his resume but let’s remember we were/are amongst the worst teams in sports.  

Every time some initial attempts fall flat there are those who want to believe initial failure was all part of the master plan. One would think the well-circulated, in-game booth shots of Douglas putting his head in his hands dispell that idea. He looked absolutely miserable, and I doubt it was all an act since he hardly figured to get caught on camera doing so.

And for the record, Douglas took a 6 year deal because he was able to get it — it pays more money and gives him better job security because a guy with 3-4 more guaranteed seasons is unlikely to get canned no matter the early results. No GM chooses a shorter contract if provided with a longer one as an alternative, regardless of whether they’re a playing long or short game in rebuilding upon arrival. He got and took a longer deal because he had a prior relationship with the HC who was instrumental in getting the last GM fired after the draft; he’d built up a good reputation for himself; Chris Johnson freely admitted he didn’t know what he was doing; and the Jets were as desperate as a team gets for a replacement.

Talk about making events fit a narrative after the fact.

As though it was only the singular, shrewd wisdom that would lead to veteran contracts acquisitions & re-signings & extensions for almost exclusively below-average performers in Fant, Lewis, GVR, Perriman, Griffin, McDougald, Desir, Kalil, and more. What is that, like $45MM Douglas spent on that lot of names alone? And I mean cash he paid out so far; not the even-larger contract amounts with future fluff the players will never see. 

His intent was to find good-or-better starters while being frugal: lower veteran contracts, and trading down to accumulate additional lower picks instead of fewer higher picks. But that strategy only works if you don’t whiff on all of them anyway. Just ask John Idzik.

Truth is as much as he’s been applauded for trading down & still getting Mims, for which I’m happy to give credit as well, the net gain was still just Mims alone. So he risked losing a player he liked, at a desperate-need position, and ultimately gained nothing as reward for incurring this risk.

My tone aside, I’m not totally down on him. It’s just that he has much to prove and is vastly over-credited for delivering very little. 

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9 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

JD has no choice but to upgrade this roster. 

2nd most available cap money and plenty of draft picks. 

Woody Johnson is back in town. 

Next year other teams will be flush with TV money. You have to sign FA OL, WR & Edge this year to establish a top 20 team. Your draft picks (especially QB) will be the determining factor if you get into the top 10. Need to have some pieces in place prior to camp. After last year’s draft we need explosive players…. Not a fingers crossed draft. 
 

All the more reason to grab DW. He alone could provide cover if JD pulls another bottom half draft ranking. 

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5 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Next year teams will be flush with TV money. You have to sign FA OL, WR & Edge this year to establish a top 20 team. Your draft picks (especially QB) will be the determining factor if you get into the top 10. Need to have some pieces in place prior to camp. After last year’s draft we need explosive players…. Not a fingers crossed draft. 
 

All the more reason to grab DW. He alone could provide cover if JD pulls another bottom half draft ranking. 

I really really really love this take:

At this time of year it's all...draft well and we'll be top 10.  During the season it's....well these guys are all rookies, you have to give them time to get up to NFL speed.  

I wear green colored glasses but I just wish I didn't have to read this ad infinitum.  

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1 minute ago, LIJetsFan said:

I really really really love this take.  At this time of year it's all...draft well and we'll be top 10.  During the season it's..........well these guys are rookies, you have to give them time to get up to NFL speed.  

I wear green colored glasses but I just wish I didn't have to read this ad infinitum.  

If after having drafted at least 18 players these last 2 drafts (with a minimum of 9 top 100 picks) and have been top 3 in available CAP space for 2 year’s straight & you can’t be close to  the top 10 teams then you are not performing well as a GM. 

Excuses stop this year. I recommend JD not fart around with SD and nail the QB either in draft, FA or trade. 
 

 

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18 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Every time some initial attempts fall flat there are those who want to believe initial failure was all part of the master plan. One would think the well-circulated, in-game booth shots of Douglas putting his head in his hands dispell that idea. He looked absolutely miserable, and doubt it was all an act, since he hardly figured to get caught on camera doing so.

And for the record, Douglas took a 6 year deal because he was able to get it — it pays more money and gives him better job security because a guy with 3-4 more guaranteed seasons is unlikely to get canned no matter the early results. No GM chooses a shorter contract if provided with a longer one as an alternative, regardless of whether they’re a playing long or short game in rebuilding upon arrival. He got and took a longer deal because he had a prior relationship with the HC who was instrumental in getting the last GM fired after the draft; he’d built up a good reputation for himself; Chris Johnson freely admitted he didn’t know what he was doing; and the Jets were as desperate as a team gets for a replacement.

Talk about making the facts fit a narrative after the fact.

As though it was only the singular, shrewd wisdom that would lead to veteran contracts acquisitions & re-signings & extensions for almost exclusively below-average performers in Fant, Lewis, GVR, Perriman, Griffin, McDougald, Desir, Kalil, and more. What is that, like $45MM Douglas spent on that lot of names alone? And I mean cash he paid out so far; not the even-larger contract amounts with future fluff the players will never see. 

His intent was to find good-or-better starters while being frugal: lower veteran contracts, and trading down to accumulate additional lower picks instead of fewer higher picks. But that strategy only works if you don’t whiff on all of them anyway. Just ask John Idzik.

Truth is as much as he’s been applauded for trading down & still getting Mims, for which I’m happy to give credit as well, the net gain was still just Mims alone. So he risked losing a player he liked, at a desperate-need position, and ultimately gained nothing as reward for incurring this risk.

My tone aside, I’m not totally down on him. It’s just that he has much to prove and is vastly over-credited for delivering very little. 

i think it's fair to criticise some of the players he signed through free agency but at the same time all of those deals are easily escaped and they're in the past.  the only way they hurt the jets is if he signed those players instead of those that could be effective in future seasons.  this assumes those types of players were available. and i don't claim to know how to assess players but both fant and gvr played well enough.  had the whole season not been so weird with the virus the oline would've looked a lot better.

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1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

If after having drafted at least 18 players these last 2 drafts (with a minimum of 9 top 100 picks) and have been top 3 in available CAP space for 2 year’s straight & you can’t be close to  the top 10 teams then you are not performing well as a GM. 

Excuses stop this year. I recommend JD not fart around with SD and nail the QB either in draft, FA or trade. 
 

 

douglas has only been responsible for one draft.  but you are right, he does have some accountability just not until after this season.

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