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Cimini: 'Smart Money' Is On Darnold Being Traded


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13 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Did you know? This is one for the "draft-a-quarterback" crowd. Darnold has posted a Total QBR of 46, 46 and 40 in his first three seasons. Since QBR began in 2006, Eli Manning (2016-18) is the only other quarterback to post three consecutive seasons with a sub-50 QBR (min. 300 attempts).

But but Darnold is as good as Jimmy Garoppolo if he had all them weapons. /sarcasm 

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22 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

Yea except 3 weeks ago Cimini was saying it was "unlikely Jets stay at 2 and pick a QB."

Comical when you really think about it, Cimini has been around toooo long to not see this happening earlier regardless of what he was hearing from his early sources. It’s a small percentage of us here who seen this months ago, with no sources.
 

Smfh 

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The Jets early 2nd round pick has "Trade Me" written all over it, but not to trade up, but rather to trade down for an additional pick or two. After day one of the draft, there will be teams spending the night looking at guys on their boards who fell out of the first round and are eager to move up, and Trade Joe could make something of that.

Maybe a team like Washington could be interested in their #19 pick for Darnold and a Jets 3rd? Ah, wishful thinking!

 

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Journalism 101 nowadays is to hedge on both sides when you have zero sources. "If you ask me, he's staying", "Actually I think things are leaning towards a trade"

 

The Jets beat are clueless since Big Mac got sent to exile

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Cimini doesn’t know. Nobody knows anything. 

I don't think - for all his past accomplishments - Wilson is necessarily the #1 best move the Jets can make. 

Still, how delicious would it be to pay them with their own picks. Like if the Jets got Watson, in effect, for Jamal Adams (demanding a contract) + Sam Darnold (on an expiring contract) + a day 2 pick or something like that?

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I'd sop that up with a biscuit.

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2 hours ago, playtowinthegame said:

But but Darnold is as good as Jimmy Garoppolo if he had all them weapons. /sarcasm 

It's a team sport.i could be the best guitarist in the world, but if the bassist is playing out of tune, it would sound like shi And so would i. 

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I'm not sure why the Jets would trade Darnold before the draft.  Why tip your hand?  Wait till the draft, if things fall as you expect and you take  QB at #2 then make the trade.

I guess the only reason for doing it early would be if the team with the best offer forced our hand with a time deadline.

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2 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

Plenty of potential suitors if (when?) Jets opt to trade Sam Darnold

MARCH 14, 2021

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- A look at what's happening around the New York Jets:

1. Days numbered? Sam Darnold's chances of returning in 2021 seemed to improve with the hiring of coach Robert Saleh, who spoke of the quarterback in glowing terms (privately to friends as well). Now, 46 days before the 2021 NFL draft, those chances appear to be fading.

General manager Joe Douglas all but posted a "For Sale" sign when he recently admitted he is open to fielding trade inquiries. Since then, nothing has changed with regard to Darnold. The Jets are listening. This month, Douglas will be a fixture on the QB/pro day circuit. It kicked off Friday at North Dakota State, where he scouted Trey Lance, a likely top-10 pick.

The smart money is on Darnold, 23, being traded, assuming BYU's Zach Wilson -- widely regarded as the draft's QB2 -- checks the important boxes during the pre-draft process. (The medical check on Wilson bears watching because of his surgically repaired throwing shoulder.)

There is a market for Darnold, based on supply and demand. Here are potential trading partners, including each team's premium draft capital:

Russell Wilson has three years left on the four-year, $140 million extension he signed in April 2019. AP Photo/Chris Szagola

  • Washington Football Team: They're desperate for a starter, and they have picks 19, 51, 74 and 82.

  • Chicago Bears: They're reportedly hot for Russell Wilson. Failing that, they could turn to Darnold. They have picks 20, 52 and 83.

  • Seattle Seahawks: The idea of trading Wilson is just plain dumb, but the rumblings persist. Carroll, who coached at USC long before Darnold arrived there, is a fan of the quarterback. Before the Jets-Seahawks game in December, Carroll said Darnold is "really talented. ... It's just a matter of time. Sam's going to be a really big-time QB." It's worth noting the Jets and Seahawks have a history of trades. Problem is, the Seahawks' highest pick is 56. Their first-rounder (23) belongs to the Jets from the Jamal Adams trade.

  • Houston Texans: No matter what they say publicly, the Texans will trade Deshaun Watson. Bet on it. If the Jets make a bid, they could try to include Darnold in a package.

  • San Francisco 49ers: They own picks 12, 43 and 102. There are plenty of ways the Jets could work a trade if the 49ers decide to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo, although that seems unlikely as this point. Cam Newton's return to the New England Patriots could have an indirect impact; the Patriots were thought to be a potential landing spot for Garoppolo.

NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, who believes the Jets would be better off in the long run by dealing Darnold and drafting Zach Wilson, raised an interesting possibility. He said the Jets could package Darnold and their second-round pick (34) to acquire a pick in the top half of the first round. He mentioned the Carolina Panthers (8), Denver Broncos (9) and 49ers (12) as potential partners.

"Now you're the Jets and you're dancing up there with those picks," Jeremiah said.

In his scenario, the Jets would have three first-round picks.

2. Potential Wilson fallout: Jets fans have a keen interest in Seattle's Wilson drama. If the Seahawks trade him, they figure to take a step backward. And that means their 2022 first-round pick, which belongs to the Jets (Adams trade), would be higher than expected.

3. Recruiting problem: A potential downside to the quarterback uncertainty is how it might affect the Jets' ability to attract free agents, specifically wide receivers and tight ends.

One agent who represents a free-agent wide receiver called it "a concern." Another agent said the QB question would come into play "only after the economics factor," adding it could be a tiebreaker. A third agent said it's important for a free agent to pick a team with a supporting cast that will allow him to thrive, pointing to Le'Veon Bell's decision to sign with the Jets in 2019 as an example of what not to do.

"Careers get killed," the agent said.

In 2019, the Jets used Darnold as a selling point for potential head coaches and free agents. Two years later, they can't even tell their own players whether Darnold will be their quarterback. If they go shopping for a high-end receiver or tight end, they can sell the new coaching staff and the new system, but those are intangibles -- and intangibles can't throw a back-shoulder pass in the end zone.

4. Perfect match? The 49ers' Kyle Juszczyk grew up in Ohio and played college ball at Harvard, but he was a Jets fan and had an "obsession" with Wayne Chrebet, he once said. Maybe, just maybe, Juszczyk will get a chance to finish his career with his idol's former team. The Jets need a fullback and Juszczyk is a pending free agent. There's also this connection to the area: He married a woman from Long Island and lives on Long Island during the offseason.

Juszczyk and the Jets seem like an ideal match, especially with Saleh and several assistants having spent the past four years in Frisco. Juszczyk, who has made five straight Pro Bowls, won't come cheaply. Would they spend decent money for an almost-30 fullback?

5. Saleh targets: Most of the attention has focused on cornerback Richard Sherman, but he's not the only 49ers free agent worth tracking. Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, defensive end Kerry Hyder Jr. and slot corner K'Waun Williams also are thought to be on the Jets' radar. Williams and Hyder were Saleh favorites in San Francisco and could step into immediate roles. All coaches like to be surrounded by "their guys." Defensive end Ronald Blair III, released Friday (failed physical), is another. Look for Saleh to bring a few with him. Heck, he's turning the Jets into San Francisco East.

6. Think big: The Jets need to address the interior of the offensive line. The free agents to watch are Green Bay Packers center Corey Linsley and New England Patriots guard Joe Thuney, ranked 10th and 12th, respectively, on ESPN's top-100 list. Both would be significant upgrades, but it's fantasy football to expect the Jets to land both.

Thuney alone is projected to score a $15 million-per-year contract. Linsley, coming off his first All-Pro season, might be a better scheme fit because he has played in a system similar to that of the Jets. He could be the subject of a LaFleur brothers recruiting battle -- Matt (Packers coach) versus Mike (Jets offensive coordinator). If the Jets sign Linsley, they can move center Connor McGovern to right guard, where he played at the start of his career.

8. Did you know? This is one for the "draft-a-quarterback" crowd. Darnold has posted a Total QBR of 46, 46 and 40 in his first three seasons. Since QBR began in 2006, Eli Manning (2016-18) is the only other quarterback to post three consecutive seasons with a sub-50 QBR (min. 300 attempts).

9. Important news: At the end of the 2019 season, Douglas promised a deep dive into the rash of injuries. That year, the Jets had a league-high 28 players on injured reserve, per Spotrac. It was more of the same in 2020 -- 36 IR cases, tied for fifth. This week, they took decisive action, replacing most of the strength-and-conditioning staff and creating an Athletic Care and Performance Department. All told, they made five hires, four of whom have doctorate degrees.

In recent years, players had begun to lose trust in the organization with regard to injuries and treatment. There were a few public disputes that made the Jets look bad, most notably the Kelechi Osemele controversy in 2019. Kudos to them for addressing the problem.

10. Jonesing: Former NFL head coach June Jones, who studies college quarterbacks closely, is a big fan of BYU's Wilson and Alabama's Mac Jones. He likes them better than Clemson's Trevor Lawrence because of their deep-ball accuracy. Jones told ESPN, "I've graded quarterbacks every year since I got to the pros and I think of all the guys I've watched since 1983, I think [Mac Jones is] the most accurate down the field of any that I've graded."

Jones, who offers a certification course on the run-and-shoot offense on CoachTube.com, has seen plenty of quarterbacks. The stats are telling. On passes of at least 20 air yards, Wilson (62.3%), Ohio State's Justin Fields (61.3%) and Jones (61.2%) were 1-2-3 in the country in completion percentage, per ESPN Stats & Information.

I would just like to take a moment to display the new feature of collapsing long quotes. Just a few days ago the scrolling would have been insane just to get to my totally meaningless post. Well done JN team! 

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56 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I'm not sure why the Jets would trade Darnold before the draft.  Why tip your hand?  Wait till the draft, if things fall as you expect and you take  QB at #2 then make the trade.

I guess the only reason for doing it early would be if the team with the best offer forced our hand with a time deadline.

Completely agree.  The Jets have played this very well thus far not tipping their hand.  Truth be told, I’m a little skeptical of the “Jets leaning towards trading Sam” rumors suddenly being reported by mainstream guys.  Smells like a Jets leak to me...but I’m wrong a lot so...

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The Jets making it seem like they want a qb at 2 only increases the value of the number 2 pick. It is very possible they are legitimately considering taking a qb at 2 but it wouldn’t surprise me either if this is a tactic to up the value of the pick to trade it. 

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6 hours ago, David Harris said:

Fun read- basically a recap of everything we know.  I’m just Jonesing for FA to start.

 

what time tomorrow should we expect to start hearing about handshake deals in place? What time does legal tampering begin?

In theory could start after midnight tonight since that is the 15th and legal tampering period.

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10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I'm not sure why the Jets would trade Darnold before the draft.  Why tip your hand?  Wait till the draft, if things fall as you expect and you take  QB at #2 then make the trade.

I guess the only reason for doing it early would be if the team with the best offer forced our hand with a time deadline.

Or if they just don’t want him anymore, whether they take a QB at #2 or trade down. I’m not envisioning a plan of:

a) see what they can get for the #2 pick, and if it isn’t enough then draft a QB there.

b) if they can trade down to their liking, and particularly if they trade down pretty far, then the QB is Darnold rather than the merely 4th-5th best QB prospect this year that they can now get.

It’s possible but you really think that’s what they have in mind? I have a tough time buying the idea that there’s a QB they like enough to draft at #2 instead of returning with Darnold, but then will pass on that QB to return with Darnold anyway. I guess yeah every GM likes extra high picks, but the Jets already have extra 1st round picks.

I guess there could be a choice (c) that they’re not looking at a QB at #2 at all. Rather, there’s someone they like but only if they can get him 4-10 picks later after scooping up another 1st rounder or more, and want to maximize a trade-down to get the guy they want at the lowest possible slot. THEN if someone unexpectedly swoops in ahead of them to ruin it at the last-minute, then they just go with Darnold for another year. 

Maybe, but that’d be pretty convoluted planning. Most GMs are willing to forgo the type of value that only hindsight can truly yield, rather than risk the guy they envision QBing the team for the next decade or more. 

Anyway they’d have to truly believe in Darnold to go that route, because they may not be in a position to get anyone good in next year’s draft. Meanwhile they do risk losing the best offer(s) for Darnold if those teams simply don’t want to wait for Douglas and instead make other arrangements.

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20 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Cimini doesn’t know. Nobody knows anything. 

100%.  The idea that JD and company have tipped their hand to anyone about anything is moronic.  If they have any sense its spread disinformation, not real information.

That said, the idea of San Fran being interested in Darnold is bizarre to me, especially considering we are inheriting half their coaching staff.  If Kyle Shanahan was their mentors, wouldnt they see the same sh*t that apparently he does?  Like how do coaches from the same school of thought, who run the same system, see a players value so differently? 

 

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6 minutes ago, JiF said:

100%.  The idea that JD and company have tipped their hand to anyone about anything is moronic.  If they have any sense its spread disinformation, not real information.

That said, the idea of San Fran being interested in Darnold is bizarre to me, especially considering we are inheriting half their coaching staff.  If Kyle Shanahan was their mentors, wouldnt they see the same sh*t that apparently he does?  Like how do coaches from the same school of thought, who run the same system, see a players value so differently? 

 

Exactly, I just can’t imagine that 49ers, who have a legit Super Bowl caliber roster, would want to trade away a fairly high draft pick for Sam and make him their starting Qb.  I don’t see it.  

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8 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Exactly, I just can’t imagine that 49ers, who have a legit Super Bowl caliber roster, would want to trade away a fairly high draft pick for Sam and make him their starting Qb.  I don’t see it.  

Yeah, that's the other factor.  You're going to jam Sam Darnold in with Stafford, Wilson and Murrary and vs. those D's and think you're going to win?  lmfao.

Here's a hot take, Sam Darnold sucks and nobody wants him.

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

Yeah, that's the other factor.  You're going to jam Sam Darnold in with Stafford, Wilson and Murrary and vs. those D's and think you're going to win?  lmfao.

Here's a hot take, Sam Darnold sucks and nobody wants him.

I could see trading a 4th round pick and having Sam be Jimmy’s back up, but the notion that the 49ers go “all in” with Sam is ridiculous.  

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the jets are playing their hand well. they have done everything to drive the QB at 2 narrative, which means if you trade to 3...you will only get the "third best" QB in the draft...assuming there is some consensus there. second spot is the one to be in....either for the Texans, or for the Falcons/Panthers/Broncos, etc...

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18 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I'm not sure why the Jets would trade Darnold before the draft.  Why tip your hand?  Wait till the draft, if things fall as you expect and you take  QB at #2 then make the trade.

I guess the only reason for doing it early would be if the team with the best offer forced our hand with a time deadline.

The Jets have the #2 pick, and there's no mystery at #1 -it's going to be Trevor Lawrence- so what would they be waiting for to "fall as they expect?" Nothing. No, if they know for certain that they plan on taking a QB at #2, there's no reason to delay trading Darnold. His trade value is only going to drop as teams fill their QB vacancies around the league. By the time the draft rolls around, there might not be any suitors left. 

I think, ideally, they'd like to get thru Zach Wilson's pro day at the end of the month before making any final decisions, but I could see them trading Darnold even before that if they get a good enough offer. 

If Darnold's still on the roster when the draft rolls around, it's probably pretty likely that he'll still be on the roster to start the season. It would be a pretty sure sign (to me, anyway) that they've put the #2 pick up for bid and are just waiting to pull the trigger. And if that's the plan, there's really no reason to wait until the draft to trade the pick, either, because -again- there's no mystery at #1! The Jets would know what they were trading out of, and the team trading would know who they were picking. 

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21 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

 

In 2019, the Jets used Darnold as a selling point for potential head coaches and free agents. Two years later, they can't even tell their own players whether Darnold will be their quarterback. If they go shopping for a high-end receiver or tight end, they can sell the new coaching staff and the new system, but those are intangibles -- and intangibles can't throw a back-shoulder pass in the end zone.

 

Can Sam? :D 

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