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The art of the 1-year deal


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I’ve been looking real close at how these one year deals might fit into a larger strategy. Here are some of my thoughts, and I’d love to hear other thinking on it: 1. Fills immediate need wi

OG Josh Andrews Indianapolis Colts April 2[21] 1 year, $1.048 million CB Pierre Desir Indianapolis Colts

Last year the art of the 1-year deal lead to the fart of a 2-win season. Let’s see if the results are any better in 2021.

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i think its pretty clear, fill gaps until you can draft well enough to get players on the rookie scale to fill those positions. its in line with JD saying he wants to build through the draft.

this year specifically i think the 1 year deals are more abundant because players know the cap is shrunk, and will go back up. i am actually surprised that more big time players didnt ask for 1 year deals, then again who knows how they are structured.

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6. Allows drafting a player at that position and gives time to develop (build through the draft). 

Don't forget that the player's still in a contract year and will be motivated. 

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Just now, jetstream23 said:

Last year the art of the 1-year deal lead to the fart of a 2-win season. Let’s see if the results are any better in 2021.

 

Just now, QB1 said:

6. Throw low level no impact jags into starting roles ensuring our cycle of suck never ends 

lol

Your points are spot on. I’m trying to separate the model from the choices made using the model, a bit.

Process is extremely valuable... if you can execute.

 

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4 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:
OG Josh Andrews Indianapolis Colts April 2[21] 1 year, $1.048 million
CB Pierre Desir Indianapolis Colts April 2[22] 1 year, $3.750 million
         
         
ILB Patrick Onwuasor Baltimore Ravens April 6[25] 1 year, $2.000 million
WR Breshad Perriman Tampa Bay Buccaneers April 1[26] 1 year, $6.500 million
         
RB Frank Gore Buffalo Bills May 5[28] 1 year, $1.050 million
QB Joe Flacco Denver Broncos May 22[29] 1 year, $1.500 million

Way to strike gold. Ryan Kalil from the previous season too. Another gem.

Bad signings are bad signings no matter how long they are. Douglas has been awful and his cheapskate short term policy is at the heart of it. But people defended the above group at the time and now they're desperately trying to rationalise this. Can't possible consider that maybe Joe Douglas just isn't all that good at this. 

he has said he wants to build through the draft, i dont think thats changed. he had 1 draft so far, and i am not calling any of those guys busts. the list above is pretty horrible, but i think a guy like Onwuasor would have been good here, just got hurt.

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Has JD signed some lousy players, sure, every GM has.  I just don't think you should look at our W/L records to say JD has blown it.  Gase, his scheme, and almost his entire CS made/makes roster evaluation impossibly hard. 

I think the OP is right.  Further bringing in a whole new/revamped physical fitness department is another long overdue DJ move.  So can we please wait the usual 3 years to evaluate a draft class?  Can we at least see the glass as half full till PROVEN otherwise?    

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20 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Last year the art of the 1-year deal lead to the fart of a 2-win season. Let’s see if the results are any better in 2021.

Well if we keep Sam hopefully we only win 2 games again. 

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Counter to that - a 2 year voidable deal allows you control if the player plays well so you can retain or trade the player.

If any of these 1 years exceeds expectations, you have nothing. And with all of the 1 year deals throughout the league, who's to say if you'll get one of the 32 available compensatory picks?

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1 hour ago, Integrity28 said:

Also, some of you nee to be way less triggered over things we cannot control.

Today I willed my wife to make me breakfast without asking.  "When I sit I do not stand" Master Po in conversation with Kwai Chang Caine

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joe tried this last year-about ten guys he brought in and they mostly all sucked -it is not a bargain if you get nothing for your money

you dont win games with bad players that nobody wants.

If these players were good two things would happpen, Joe would take advantage of the low price and lock them up for longer term and two if these players were good they would not be stuck signing one year deals at low prices with the second worst team in football

An actual rebuild is not just bringing and end getting rid of one year rental guys-you get young stud players however you can (through FA and the draft or trades) and build a foundation around a core group of guys.

Last year Joe should have signed Conklin but he did not -he signed guys on the cheap and they sucked-this year he is doing the same thing hoping for different results

This is year three joe is getting paid he needs to have a team that can actually compete .   

Even with all my negativity Joe still can right the ship with a couple key moves-he MUST nail the draft though and the team must be a much better team on the field next year.

When the jets come asking for my season ticket payments for all of my psls I will say-it is a process I am in a rebuild and like Joe I want bargains not full price so cut my tickets in half. 

 

 

 

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I think it's good business; borderline backups/reclamation projects at one-year deals for most of free agency. 

We tried fo Thuney, but he went to the Chiefs for a market reset contract... not much we can do about that. 

Anyways, Lawson is a f***ing home run and he's not a one-year deal. I was anxious and upset for about half-a-day when FA opened. After that signing I have been stuck like this for 4 days:

Vegetta Super Saiyan GIF - Vegetta SuperSaiyan Green - Discover & Share GIFs

 

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2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I’ve been looking real close at how these one year deals might fit into a larger strategy.

Here are some of my thoughts, and I’d love to hear other thinking on it:

1. Fills immediate need with starters and depth, a result of bad drafting for 10+ years

2. Sets us up every year to lose the 4-5 guys with 1-year contracts in FA, thereby helping the comp pick formula

3. Uses cap space for the current year, but is off the books the following years, thereby setting us up to always be well-positioned with cap space 

4. Releases us from drafting for need

5. Gives us a trial run with players that we can always extend if you strike gold

I get the disappointment many have with the modest moves we’re making, but it is nice to see there’s a clear philosophy/strategy driving these decisions. Agree with it or not, fine. I just don’t believe we’ve ever had that. 

4 and 5 are key.  I agree with this post.

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24 minutes ago, kmnj said:

joe tried this last year-about ten guys he brought in and they mostly all sucked -it is not a bargain if you get nothing for your money

you dont win games with bad players that nobody wants.

If these players were good two things would happpen, Joe would take advantage of the low price and lock them up for longer term and two if these players were good they would not be stuck signing one year deals at low prices with the second worst team in football

An actual rebuild is not just bringing and end getting rid of one year rental guys-you get young stud players however you can (through FA and the draft or trades) and build a foundation around a core group of guys.

Last year Joe should have signed Conklin but he did not -he signed guys on the cheap and they sucked-this year he is doing the same thing hoping for different results

This is year three joe is getting paid he needs to have a team that can actually compete .   

Even with all my negativity Joe still can right the ship with a couple key moves-he MUST nail the draft though and the team must be a much better team on the field next year.

When the jets come asking for my season ticket payments for all of my psls I will say-it is a process I am in a rebuild and like Joe I want bargains not full price so cut my tickets in half. 

 

 

 

I never talked about bargains. I don’t see that as part of the strategy. I think he knows he’s getting mediocre players. Role players. Which are necessary on every team, but usually a result of past drafts. Mac whiffed on almost every player he drafted in 6 years? Idzik, Rex and Tanny were no better before that.

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16 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

The 1 year deal theory led to 2-14 this year

Love your optimism though

Thanks. I’m not saying it will lead us to immediate improvement. I think it’s about a long-term reset thru the draft. Using FA this was enable that. It doesn’t give you immediacy though.

Just have to hope the drafting execution delivers, otherwise it’s a lost cause.

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2 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Your points are spot on. I’m trying to separate the model from the choices made using the model, a bit.

Process is extremely valuable... if you can execute.

It almost worked...No. 2 overall is not too shabby. 

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20 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

The 1 year deal theory led to 2-14 this year

Love your optimism though

i say Adam Gase lead to as 2-14 season

any other coach win 6-7 games 

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2 hours ago, Ghost420 said:

Well if we keep Sam hopefully we only win 2 games again. 

Well, I'd take something like 2 or 12... but in between is the problem.  The 8-8 no man's land doesn't help this team much.

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How quickly we forget that a major factor in the team going 2-14 was an impossibly terrible head coach who had a history of being impossibly terrible and was justly dumped this offseason. Maybe all of JDs signings were bad the past two seasons. Maybe all of his draft picks suck donkey balls. Maybe his one year contracts are a terrible idea. When you’re trying to fix something with numerous parts, you change one part at a time. Start with the most likely culprit and work your way down from there. I’m certainly not thrilled with the outcome of last season, but it was glaringly apparent to me that Gase was awful. Hopefully some of those “jags” will flash when put in a better situation. Especially now that they will have an actual preseason.
 

The bottom line is that none of us are in control. JD seems to have a plan that he’s actually sticking to. That’s already an improvement. 

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This is year three joe is getting paid he needs to have a team that can actually compete.
This is Joe's second Free Agency and Draft. He wasn't around for those periods in 2019.

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21 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

The 1 year deal theory led to 2-14 this year

Love your optimism though

The drafting by previous GMs lead to the 2-14 season. The question is always whether you spend big in free agency to patch holes which can lead to a more "fan friendly" 6-10 season or do you rebuild through the draft with the ultimate goal of building a championship team.

In hindsight, which free agent moves last year would have lead to a playoff team last year?

 

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Good thread post!  I suspect a lot of 1 year deals are because of the lowered cap space.  Players are taking what they can get for the opportunity to hit FA again when there is more cap space.  Of course because of the limited space teams are offering less so it's decidedly a two way street.

 
The Pats are one of the teams using their cap space to upgrade their roster.  Since they are a divisional rival we will be able to judge Joe D's approach on a comparative basis going forward.  There is no longer a Brady factor and BB has had most of his staff turn over.   They had an equally crappy roster last year and we both have a ton of draft choices but we are drafting ahead of them.  

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The fact is we need players to make plays. The larger part of the FA's that have been brought in on one year deals have not panned out. I understand  we need to fill out the roster but this is just throwing darts. 

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Don't confuse process, which is what the OP is talking about, with results.  The process is clear, build thru the draft and use short term FA deals to fill in the holes.  The results are driven by how well JD drafts.  In Year #1, his results were mixed at best.

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None of these guys would take a 1 year deal if any team thought they were worth investing in.  Every other team looks at these guys as players that won't improve their chances of winning.  Does anyone really think that signing Feeney, or not cutting Lewis or GVR is a better move than signing Zeigler?

I was fine with it last year when it seemed like he was looking to sign place holders with little guaranteed money after the first year in case he hit on a guy like Fant or GVR, he'd have a position locked up on a below market contract.  I don't think any Jets fan is expecting Fant, Lewis, or GVR to be a difference maker on this team next year.

I also give Douglas a pass on the Khalil signing.  There were no other centers available and he became the GM at the end of the offseason.

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Serious question, who from the list of 1 year deals we gave out would anyone have advocated for a multi year deal?  I'm not even talking about hindsight, I mean when they were given those deals, did anyone say to themselves " Man I wish we gave Perriman a 3 year deal."  They accept those deals as a gamble and the team does as well.  The jets need bodies, plain and simple.  Hence why you have a large contingent of fans, media, and former NFL personnel advocating for trading down.  The cupboard is bare.  The focus is hitting on the draft.  Thats where JD will make his money based upon where we are talent wise here.

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3 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I’ve been looking real close at how these one year deals might fit into a larger strategy.

Here are some of my thoughts, and I’d love to hear other thinking on it:

I see it the same way, and on paper its a good strategy.....

....but only for a team like the Ravens or Chiefs that already have a strong foundation of players and playmakers.  Douglas is acting like he has a Mahomes and a Donald on the roster, like he has a bunch of veteran leaders and a veteran coaching staff to get these C players to perform like A's and B's.

The issue is that this type of revolving door of prove-it players need really good players to learn from and feed off of.  Putting Jarrad Davis in a room with Lavonte David, might blossom into a great player.  Put him in a room with Thomas Hennessy, he's on his own.   This is the part that Douglas hasn't addressed.  And every existing veteran leader we've had, he's gotten rid of.  Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, Robbie Anderson, Steve McLendon, Avery Williamson, yeah, they cost more money than they're worth but having those types of Alpha's would have gone a long way to make this thrift-shop strategy work.

SAR I

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3 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I’ve been looking real close at how these one year deals might fit into a larger strategy.

Here are some of my thoughts, and I’d love to hear other thinking on it:

1. Fills immediate need with starters and depth, a result of bad drafting for 10+ years

2. Sets us up every year to lose the 4-5 guys with 1-year contracts in FA, thereby helping the comp pick formula

3. Uses cap space for the current year, but is off the books the following years, thereby setting us up to always be well-positioned with cap space 

4. Releases us from drafting for need

5. Gives us a trial run with players that we can always extend if you strike gold

I get the disappointment many have with the modest moves we’re making, but it is nice to see there’s a clear philosophy/strategy driving these decisions. Agree with it or not, fine. I just don’t believe we’ve ever had that. 

This is excellent. I'm actually putting a JN vid together about the one year deal thing right now. Filming tomorrow. Mind if I use this post and your name in it?  

 

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