The art of the 1-year deal

[JoJoTownsell1]

16 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

The fact is we need players to make plays. The larger part of the FA's that have been brought in on one year deals have not panned out. I understand  we need to fill out the roster but this is just throwing darts. 

Can you name all the free agent playmakers from last years draft class that would have altered the direction of this team? 

Randall Cobb/Emmanuel Sanders/Funchess/R. Anderson/ S. Roberts

Those were all the WRs our GM missed the boat on in last year's free agent class. Only Robby is still an above average player. 

At RB it was Gurley/Gordon/Howard/Barber/Freeman/Miller. 

Which of those washed up RBs do you think JD should have signed that would have transformed this franchise? 

This year, it's MAYBE Golladay that can be a transformative offensive player. That's pretty much it. And he clearly has some baggage. Guys like Juju and even C. Davis are good players. They are not great talents. Signing one of them seems like a prudent move. 

In the end, JD will be judged by the development of Mims/Becton/Perine and the offensive players he drafts this year. 

[Smashmouth]

3 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Also, some of you nee to be way less triggered over things we cannot control.

Ape talking people off the ledge instead of pushing them to their bloody death ..... Ape has changed with the new regime

 

[chad2coles]

8 minutes ago, DoubleDecker said:

Serious question, who from the list of 1 year deals we gave out would anyone have advocated for a multi year deal?  I'm not even talking about hindsight, I mean when they were given those deals, did anyone say to themselves " Man I wish we gave Perriman a 3 year deal."  They accept those deals as a gamble and the team does as well.  The jets need bodies, plain and simple.  Hence why you have a large contingent of fans, media, and former NFL personnel advocating for trading down.  The cupboard is bare.  The focus is hitting on the draft.  Thats where JD will make his money based upon where we are talent wise here.

The cupboard wouldn't be so bare if the free agency approach wasn't signing guys like Feeney and Cole, and keeping guys like Lewis and GVR instead of signing guys like Zeigler, Juju, and Verrett.

How much less of a draft priority is OG if Zeigler, who fits the Jets blocking scheme and has been a top guard in this league, even on the giants garbage o-line?  Verrett was a huge part of Saleh's 4th ranked passing defense last year.  WR isn't a draft priority if Davis/Mims/Juju/Crowder are our top 4 receivers?  Then you get to go BPA with your draft picks, which is why, along with not having to spend draft picks on QBs, is why good teams draft well.

No one is saying Douglas should have given multi year deals to the guys willing to take 1 year deals.  How much less cap space would the Jets have if they cut Lewis and instead of signing Feeney and Cole signed Zeigler, Juju, and Verrett?  By the way, Zeigler is basically on a 2 year deal, Verrett is on a 1 year deal, and Juju is unsigned at only 24 years old.

I've defended Douglas over and over again, but I don't see how people look at those 3 players and think, "Good thing Douglas stayed away from those guys."

[Jethead]

10 minutes ago, SAR I said:

I see it the same way, and on paper its a good strategy.....

....but only for a team like the Ravens or Chiefs that already have a strong foundation of players and playmakers.  Douglas is acting like he has a Mahomes and a Donald on the roster, like he has a bunch of veteran leaders and a veteran coaching staff to get these C players to perform like A's and B's.

The issue is that this type of revolving door of prove-it players need really good players to learn from and feed off of.  Putting Jarrad Davis in a room with Lavonte David, might blossom into a great player.  Put him in a room with Thomas Hennessy, he's on his own.   This is the part that Douglas hasn't addressed.  And every existing veteran leader we've had, he's gotten rid of.  Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, Robbie Anderson, Steve McLendon, Avery Williamson, yeah, they cost more money than they're worth but having those types of Alpha's would have gone a long way to make this thrift-shop strategy work.

SAR I

Fair point. CJ Mosely could fill that savvy veteran role. Also, have heard Richard Sherman's name mentioned. Got the feeling Saleh and his staff will be more actively engaged and less aloof that some coaching staffs.

[TokyoJetsFan]

I think there are a couple of reasons why he does this.  One is he hates long term contracts, but as others said if he lucks out with anyone on a one year contract he will extend them. 

Two I think we can agree from everything we’ve read and seen he values building through the draft and the value of draft picks.  I think he has a set number of what he wants his remaining cap to look like heading into the next season with money carried over and also for in season signings.   What people forget about the salary cap before COVID hit was GMs had a pretty good idea what the cap would be:

Year	Maximum team salary
2021	$182.5 million[15]
2020	$198.2 million[16] + $40 million per team in player benefits[17]
2019	$188.2 million
2018	$177.2 million[18]
2017	$167.00 million

So when the Cap from $198 to 182 that was bad enough, but to most GM’s who plan and budget ahead the real number in their head went from $218mn to $182.  That will effect free agency spending even if you have a lot of money, especially if you are a newish GM on a long term contract with a long term plan. The tv deal will bump it up again, but GMs were expecting a tv deal when they had a hypothetical &218mn cap in their head.  This all sounds better in my head and not as confusing as it looks like after I wrote so I hope you get the general idea I’m trying to communicate lol.

[SAR I]

1 minute ago, Jethead said:

Fair point. CJ Mosely could fill that savvy veteran role. Also, have heard Richard Sherman's name mentioned. Got the feeling Saleh and his staff will be more actively engaged and less aloof that some coaching staffs.

If Saleh confirmed that CJ Mosley is bought-in and returning to the team and signed the likes of Richard Sherman, and then do likewise with the offense, I would withdraw my criticism of Joe Douglas and give him my enthusiastic support.

But the way it stands now, all the quality veterans are off the market, we added young players with potential, and all that's left are very young players in the draft and the very young leftovers who weren't drafted.  It feels like last year.  But tougher since the roster is going to be learning a new playbook.

SAR I

[kevinc855]

45 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

The drafting by previous GMs lead to the 2-14 season. The question is always whether you spend big in free agency to patch holes which can lead to a more "fan friendly" 6-10 season or do you rebuild through the draft with the ultimate goal of building a championship team.

In hindsight, which free agent moves last year would have lead to a playoff team last year?

 

Wrong. Look at the roster of 2020. That was mostly all JD. Tell me where I’m wrong. I concede he did not draft the QB

[PS17]

17 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Can you name all the free agent playmakers from last years draft class that would have altered the direction of this team? 

Randall Cobb/Emmanuel Sanders/Funchess/R. Anderson/ S. Roberts

Those were all the WRs our GM missed the boat on in last year's free agent class. Only Robby is still an above average player. 

At RB it was Gurley/Gordon/Howard/Barber/Freeman/Miller. 

Which of those washed up RBs do you think JD should have signed that would have transformed this franchise? 

This year, it's MAYBE Golladay that can be a transformative offensive player. That's pretty much it. And he clearly has some baggage. Guys like Juju and even C. Davis are good players. They are not great talents. Signing one of them seems like a prudent move. 

In the end, JD will be judged by the development of Mims/Becton/Perine and the offensive players he drafts this year. 

Good post. I saw a stat recently that since 2016, the Jets and Jaguars are 1 and 2 in the league in FA spending and 31 and 32 in the league in wins. Good drafting teams don’t let their premium players hit free agency, so you’re left bargain bin shopping, paying middling or declining talent top talent top dollar.
 

The formula has always been build through the draft and then fill minor holes via free agency. The Jets have been doing the opposite for years and Douglas at least looks like he’s stopping that trend. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

5 minutes ago, chad2coles said:

The cupboard wouldn't be so bare if the free agency approach wasn't signing guys like Feeney and Cole, and keeping guys like Lewis and GVR instead of signing guys like Zeigler, Juju, and Verrett.

 

People also have to take into account that there are 31 other NFL teams. You act like if JD wants a guy he can just sign him. The player has to want to come here over the Chiefs (Thuney) or Ravens (Zeitler). For all any of us know, JD was told by their agents that they have no interest in coming to the Jets, so it was never even a possibility. 

 

[JoJoTownsell1]

5 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Wrong. Look at the roster of 2020. That was mostly all JD. Tell me where I’m wrong. I concede he did not draft the QB

LOL, you don't  get it. The roster in 2020 was filled with 10 guys he drafted. The rest of the roster was a product of poor drafting my Macc and JD being forced to fill holes with guys off the street. 

You have no clue how the NFL works if you think the 2020 roster was mostly all a product of JD's vision. 

[chad2coles]

1 minute ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

People also have to take into account that there are 31 other NFL teams. You act like if JD wants a guy he can just sign him. The player has to want to come here over the Chiefs (Thuney) or Ravens (Zeitler). For all any of us know, JD was told by their agents that they have no interest in coming to the Jets, so it was never even a possibility. 

 

These 2 of these guys specifically had strong ties to the Jets.  Verrett played great in Saleh's defense last year.  Zeitler played for the Giants last year and has a family that said they loved living in NY.  Juju doesn't have a team right now.

Even if Douglas had to pay each of them $1M more/year than they got, the team would be much better off.  You could pay for most of the signings by passing on Feeney and Cole and cutting Lewis.  Juju would have been the best WR on the team last year.  Verrett would have been our best CB.  Zeitler would have been our 2nd best offensive lineman.

Build through the draft doesn't mean avoid signing guys to reasonable deals that fit your system, fill a need, and upgrade your team.

[JoJoTownsell1]

Just now, chad2coles said:

These 2 of these guys specifically had strong ties to the Jets.  Verrett played great in Saleh's defense last year.  Zeitler played for the Giants last year and has a family that said they loved living in NY.  Juju doesn't have a team right now.

Even if Douglas had to pay each of them $1M more/year than they got, the team would be much better off.  You could pay for most of the signings by passing on Feeney and Cole and cutting Lewis.  Juju would have been the best WR on the team last year.  Verrett would have been our best CB.  Zeitler would have been our 2nd best offensive lineman.

Build through the draft doesn't mean avoid signing guys to reasonable deals that fit your system, fill a need, and upgrade your team.

They signed with the Ravens and Chiefs. They seem to have stronger ties to winning. If they had signed with the Bengals and Bears then you would have a point. 

[kevinc855]

3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

LOL, you don't  get it. The roster in 2020 was filled with 10 guys he drafted. The rest of the roster was a product of poor drafting my Macc and JD being forced to fill holes with guys off the street. 

You have no clue how the NFL works if you think the 2020 roster was mostly all a product of JD's vision. 

No tell me the names of all the players?  There are some but a lot of it was JD FA and draft. You are totally glossing over the facts and just making things up to fit your narrative 

[joewilly12]

1 hour ago, isired said:

This is Joe's second Free Agency and Draft. He wasn't around for those periods in 2019.

He was helping turning the Eagles into the mess they are today. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 minute ago, kevinc855 said:

No tell me the names of all the players?  There are some but a lot of it was JD FA and draft. You are totally glossing over the facts and just making things up to fit your narrative 

Again, only 10 players were drafted by JD. Yeah, many were FAs signed by JD but you are acting like he chose Perriman over Julio Jones and GVR over Quenton Nelson. 

[kevinc855]

3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Again, only 10 players were drafted by JD. Yeah, many were FAs signed by JD but you are acting like he chose Perriman over Julio Jones and GVR over Quenton Nelson. 

Well this FA is all him like it was last year...again you gotta start winning games or you aren’t building a roster effectively 

[chad2coles]

20 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

They signed with the Ravens and Chiefs. They seem to have stronger ties to winning. If they had signed with the Bengals and Bears then you would have a point. 

I'm not talking about anyone that signed with the Chiefs.  Verrett resigned with the 49ers.  Zeitler signed with the Ravens.  I think Douglas could have outbid them.  Juju is still available.

[More Cowbell]

54 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Can you name all the free agent playmakers from last years draft class that would have altered the direction of this team? 

Randall Cobb/Emmanuel Sanders/Funchess/R. Anderson/ S. Roberts

Those were all the WRs our GM missed the boat on in last year's free agent class. Only Robby is still an above average player. 

At RB it was Gurley/Gordon/Howard/Barber/Freeman/Miller. 

Which of those washed up RBs do you think JD should have signed that would have transformed this franchise? 

This year, it's MAYBE Golladay that can be a transformative offensive player. That's pretty much it. And he clearly has some baggage. Guys like Juju and even C. Davis are good players. They are not great talents. Signing one of them seems like a prudent move. 

In the end, JD will be judged by the development of Mims/Becton/Perine and the offensive players he drafts this year. 

So what is your point? I know JD is building through the draft, he has made that abundantly clear but signing players like Feeney who just from a statistical  point of reference  probably makes the talent on the OL lower than it was last season  has a higher likelihood of not working  out. 

And BTW, I would  take Gurley, Howard, or Gordon over the trash we put out at RB in a heart beat. 

[LIJetsFan]

I want a better team so I'm going to cry and stomp my feet!   

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, GREENBEAN said:

This is excellent. I'm actually putting a JN vid together about the one year deal thing right now. Filming tomorrow. Mind if I use this post and your name in it?  

 

Credit me as Nostra-damn-ape.

[isired]

Don't confuse process, which is what the OP is talking about, with results.  The process is clear, build thru the draft and use short term FA deals to fill in the holes.  The results are driven by how well JD drafts.  In Year #1, his results were mixed at best.

Great point.

I see it the same way, and on paper its a good strategy.....
....but only for a team like the Ravens or Chiefs that already have a strong foundation of players and playmakers.  Douglas is acting like he has a Mahomes and a Donald on the roster, like he has a bunch of veteran leaders and a veteran coaching staff to get these C players to perform like A's and B's.
The issue is that this type of revolving door of prove-it players need really good players to learn from and feed off of.  Putting Jarrad Davis in a room with Lavonte David, might blossom into a great player.  Put him in a room with Thomas Hennessy, he's on his own.   This is the part that Douglas hasn't addressed.  And every existing veteran leader we've had, he's gotten rid of.  Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, Robbie Anderson, Steve McLendon, Avery Williamson, yeah, they cost more money than they're worth but having those types of Alpha's would have gone a long way to make this thrift-shop strategy work.
SAR I

It's kind of the opposite - when you only need a few players, you go after the Thuney's and you have to give them all-pro contracts, not 1 year deals.

No tell me the names of all the players?  There are some but a lot of it was JD FA and draft. You are totally glossing over the facts and just making things up to fit your narrative 

Look at the Jets transactions in 2019, pre-June 19th (BJD) and post-June 19th (AJD) and you'll see why the problem lingers.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/2019/new-york-jets/

[isired]

One of the things about the Patriots in particular and early Free Agency in general is that starters who are not All-Pros get All-Pro money, which is OK short term but hurts you a year out, especially if you don't have your FQB on a rookie deal.

I think the salary cap situation (from the owners side) and the TV deal situation (from the players side) conspiring to allow these 1 year deals to be more desirable from both sides helps the owners more. Salaries were always going to go up when tge cap goes up from the TV deal, but the teams get to borrow more players than ever without committing.

[GREENBEAN]

10 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Credit me as Nostra-damn-ape.

I'm sorry. I just can't do that. 

[Integrity28]

21 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

I'm sorry. I just can't do that. 

lol I wasn’t serious 

[Jet_Engine1]

15 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I’ve been looking real close at how these one year deals might fit into a larger strategy.

Here are some of my thoughts, and I’d love to hear other thinking on it:

1. Fills immediate need with starters and depth, a result of bad drafting for 10+ years

2. Sets us up every year to lose the 4-5 guys with 1-year contracts in FA, thereby helping the comp pick formula

3. Uses cap space for the current year, but is off the books the following years, thereby setting us up to always be well-positioned with cap space 

4. Releases us from drafting for need

5. Gives us a trial run with players that we can always extend if you strike gold

I get the disappointment many have with the modest moves we’re making, but it is nice to see there’s a clear philosophy/strategy driving these decisions. Agree with it or not, fine. I just don’t believe we’ve ever had that. 

This is a level headed, rational, well thought out position on Free Agency and Contract strategy.  There is no place for witchcraft such as this. We will have Kevin see you out.

 

Good day, sir.

[Jet Life]

13 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

The 1 year deal theory led to 2-14 this year

Love your optimism though

I’d say a decade of poor drafting paired with Gase led to 2-14

[BROOKLYN JET]

15 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Also, some of you nee to be way less triggered over things we cannot control.

Orange Ape Bad

[BROOKLYN JET]

[GREENBEAN]

1 hour ago, Integrity28 said:

lol I wasn’t serious 

Come on, you have to give me more credit than that lol   I get it.  

[Integrity28]

6 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

Come on, you have to give me more credit than that lol   I get it.  

I thought maybe since it’s part of JN’s social media content??? I dunno. Hahaha

[kevinc855]

13 hours ago, Jet Life said:

I’d say a decade of poor drafting paired with Gase led to 2-14

Totally glossing over the fact those picks weren’t on the field are we 

[SAR I]

Just now, kevinc855 said:

Totally glossing over the fact those picks weren’t on the field are we 

The Maccagnan Jets finish 6-2, have a 7-9 season.

Douglas trades or releases all known playmakers and replaces them.

The Douglas Jets open 0-8, have a 2-14 season.

That's what happened.  Don't let them re-write history.

SAR I

[chad2coles]

The reason teams backload deals is because they know the cap goes up every year.  Frontloading deals like Douglas is doing gives you flexibility if the signing doesn't work out, but it also doesn't take full advantage of the cap space we have.  A dollar committed to a future higher cap is worth less than a dollar committed to the current lower cap.  If you're confident in the players you're signing, you can maximize cap value.  Who are the guys Douglas is saving '22 cap room for?  They aren't on the roster.  There's definitely no one at guard or cornerback that should be taking up cap space that could be used to improve those positions this offseason.

Maybe Douglas is concerned that Jarad Davis is going to turn into Fred Warner and command a huge contract.  If only the NFL allowed teams to sign players for more than 1 year...

[isired]

Totally glossing over the fact those picks weren’t on the field are we 

That's kind of the point though - you want your draft picks, at least in the top 4-5 rounds on the field, or at least on the roster.

Or I guess on a roster, somewhere in the league, if you're the guy that drafted them but not the guy that released them.

The Hackenbergs and Polites etc. are a bad look, and have a negative effect on the team for a few years.

[Hael]

A lot of people here are assuming that Douglas is the one pushing for these one year contracts.   Maybe true, and maybe that’s what he wants.
However, I think that’s a somewhat suspect assumption.

 I see a lot of teams and FA contracts this year that are just like ours, which implies to me that it’s the players and their agents banking on the fact that the cap will explode.