Popular Post redlichtie Posted March 20, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted March 20, 2021 Those of you long time draft watchers have probably been aware of the work of Bob McGinn down the years, for my money one of the best and most well connected beat writers who clearly has earned the trust of scouts and front office personnel down the years. McGinn was a long time contributor for the Milwaukee Journal-Semtinel and therefor spoke mostly with regard to the Green Bay Packers but every year he would release a very interesting series of articles on upcoming prospects with actual scouts unvarnished opinions delivered anonymously. The first would usually be published post draft and pre-season with a sort of ‘early take’ I’ve been keeping an eye out for it but this year it didn’t appear as normal until a couple of days ago and as he has since left the MJS and contributes mainly for ‘TheAthletic’ these observations are now behind a paywall. an example of an early general take prior to the 2017 draft including new Jet Corey Davis: https://eu.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/03/04/2016-nfl-draft-outlook/98698342/ McGinn will almost certainly publish a much fuller series of scouts takes in the week leading up to the draft where he will go through each position group in depth analysing the views on players in groups from ‘as good as gone in the top 20’ to ‘best of the rest’ it’s also very interesting to go back retrospectively and look at how these pro scouts opinions on players play out with the benefit of hindsight (see end of post) I’m not sure if I can post the link or think it would be right to copy and paste the whole article but I personally would recommend subscribing for their coverage as Dane Brugler is a decent draft contributor in his own right and McGinn’s pre-draft stuff is worth a look. In the last couple of days McGinn has published his top 30 prospects for both sides of the ball and it makes for interesting reading. I would add that it’s very interesting how opinions vary on literally every single player and it’s extremely rare to get a unanimous take on any prospect. Some of these scouts sound like throwbacks to the 1950’s as well so as with everything you have to take this as you find it and filter out as required but it’s very intriguing stuff and an insight into how professional scouts are viewing these players. And how badly wrong some of them are. NB: apologies for the lack of formatting, if anyone can help out please feel free to amend or edit so that it’s easier to read. I’ve posted some 2021 highlights below and at the end for some historical context what the scouts had to say about the op QB’s of 2018....again apologies for formatting issues. some obvious highlights that jump out: QUARTERBACKS Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (6-foot-6, 220 pounds): In three seasons, he passed for 90 touchdowns and ran for another 18. “Rare arm talent,” said one scout. “He’s humble, a faith-based guy. He’ll handle anything being the franchise quarterback. There are a lot of people who say he’s the best quarterback to come out since Andrew Luck. Is he a product of the system? Everything that comes out of there says he really is smart. This year, he started getting his touch back. His accuracy was better.” Lawrence went through an individual workout Feb. 12, four days before undergoing surgery to repair labrum damage in his non-throwing shoulder. Expected to be ready by mid-July. “He is a great athlete and has a strong arm,” a second scout said. “The guy has a chance to be great. But you break him down, game after game, he’s not an accurate passer. Where he has problems is inside the numbers. Inconsistent touch. Is he Josh Allen or Blake Bortles? Bortles was a big-time athlete, but he wasn’t accurate. People were all excited about size and the way Bortles could run. … The ACC is not a good league, OK? The only real competition they (Clemson) get every year is in the playoffs. He didn’t play well. Even when they beat Ohio State, he beat them running, not passing. They totally shut the guy down.” Finished second in Heisman Trophy voting in 2020, seventh in ’19. “I’d take Joe Burrow over Trevor Lawrence,” said a third scout. “He was a better player. More of a playmaker. The ACC stinks. Everything is so easy for him. This was for three years. Now when he played LSU, Ohio State this year, Miami, Virginia Tech, there were times he had to speed up and he looked average. When you put him against other elite competition, he has not stepped up. When Deshaun Watson was there and he played Alabama two years in a row, that guy was by far the best player on the field. A superstar. I never saw that with Trevor Lawrence. On designed things he can run, but if he has to quickly get out of trouble, he does not do that well. If he threw for 300 yards in a game, 250 of it would be just the quick design of the offense. Their coordinator (Tony Elliott) is amazing.” Zach Wilson, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 210 pounds): Three-star recruit. “He will not be the first pick in the draft, but he should be,” one scout said. “Love him. He’s just a natural. He just has the movement, the looseness, the throwing from all angles, the jumping around in the pocket. His release is quick as hell. He can throw the ball. He is a nifty, elusive type in the pocket. He can run a little bit.” Battled injuries as the starter in 2018 and ’19, and underwent surgeries to repair a labrum and hand. Vastly improved in 2020 with an NFL passer rating of 138.2, up from 84.9 in 2019. Some scouts worry that his slight frame might lead to durability issues. “How big is he?” asked one. “He’s only going to be like 205 (pounds). He may be only 6-(foot)-1. He’s been spoiled a little bit, too.” A fourth scout described him as a combination of Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Retorted another scout: “There’s a vast difference (to Mahomes). The physical skills of throwing the football, he’s not even close to humming the ball like Patrick. I don’t know if he’s innately competitive and tough as Patrick. Patrick’s probably smarter, too.” Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-foot-3, 228 pounds): Spent his freshman season at Georgia before transferring and becoming a two-year starter. “He’s a modern-day RPO quarterback,” said one scout. “He’s a naturally accurate ball thrower and the ball gets out of his hands, too. He’s not a runner like Lamar (Jackson), but he’s way better than Jalen Hurts was. He will have to learn progressions. Very athletic. Very cool demeanor. Plus, he’s sturdy.” Led the Buckeyes to a 1-2 record in the College Football Playoff. “Love his makeup, the playmaking, his competitiveness, the movement,” a second scout said. “He’s poised. He stepped up in the big games. He’s just not a quick processor in the pocket. He’s more methodical. That’s a worry. He had the streak in the Indiana game: ‘What is this guy doing?’” Passed for 67 TDs and ran for another 19. “He is one of the top athletes (at quarterback) of all time,” a third scout said. “Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see. I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play, and on the next play, I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom (of the round).” Passer rating was 127.6. “He played his worst game in the Big Ten Championship (game) against Northwestern, yet they still found a way to win,” said a fourth scout. “People are saying they don’t even belong there (in the playoff), and he plays a damn near perfect game against Clemson. In the national championship, he carried them. What would be ideal for him would be to go somewhere and not have to play the first year. But the physical talent is so wow, they’re going to see that in practice and say, ‘This guy has to play.’ There needs to be a tremendous amount of growth, which I think he is capable of.” RUNNING BACKS Najee Harris, Alabama (6-foot-2, 232 pounds): According to one scout, he’s the best player in the draft, and another said he would be a strong candidate for No. 1. “Full-time player,” said one scout. “Reminds me of Derrick Henry. I have a feeling he’ll run in the 4.5 (in the 40) because he runs away from people in that league (the SEC), and that league I know has speed. Only negative I had was he absorbs punishment because he likes to run through tacklers instead of going around them.” Led the nation in yards from scrimmage (1,891) and rushing touchdowns (26) in 2020. “He’s what you want,” said a second scout. “He’s quick. Got natural run vision and feel. Hands are good. Maximizes his runs. He’s a better Matt Forte is what I described him as. He doesn’t get hit (hard). He slip-slides.” One of 11 children from Antioch, Calif. “He does have a little bit of ‘I’m more important,’ and that could hold him back a little bit,” said a third scout. “You need to stroke him a little bit. He’s a little bit selfish. He doesn’t seem interested in pass (protection). He’s going to have to learn to do it. But he’s got exceptional hands coming out of the backfield and can move in space for a big man.” TACKLES Penei Sewell, Oregon (6-foot-6, 330 pounds): Started 20 games at left tackle in 2018 and 2019 before opting out in 2020. “I compared him to (Tony) Boselli but with quicker feet,” one scout said. “Dominant run and pass blocker. It’s very seldom you find a big-time athlete that is nasty, too. Anthony Munoz and Boselli, guys like that, they really liked to put guys on their tail. But, he didn’t play this year.” Won’t turn 21 until mid-October. “His deal will be character,” a second scout said. “It’s been easy for him. I don’t know that he’s 100 percent pro right now. He has to deal with some growing pains in terms of professionalism. But the guy is tough and passionate on the field.” Comes from a football family. “Every time I circle back and watch him, I just don’t see it,” said a third scout. “He’s not that gifted with his feet. He doesn’t really play that physical or strong. He can get in the way with things, but he’s not a really good finisher and his balance isn’t that great. His technique is off. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done.” Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (6-foot-4, 304 pounds): The Wildcats’ best offensive-line prospect since Chris Hinton, the No. 4 pick in 1983 who made the Pro Bowl seven times. “I see him as Zack Martin,” said one scout. “He may not be as good, but Zack could play tackle. I see Slater more as a right tackle, but I think he’d be a special guard and a good left tackle. He’s not going to disappoint.” Started at right tackle in 2017 and ’18 and at left tackle in ’19 before opting out. “Very smart, fast processor,” a second scout said. “Got really good hands. Understands angles. There are very few issues in pass (protection). He held up pretty well against Chase Young (in 2019). He opted out because he was thinking about coming out last year. He’ll be way better inside.” TIGHT END Kyle Pitts, Florida (6-foot-6, 250 pounds): Maybe the least nit-picked player in the draft. “The question was, could he block better in 2020 than he did in ’19?” said one scout. “In ’19, he blocked like crap. This year, he defied all the odds, gained some weight and blocked his ass off. Low-maintenance. Loves football. He’s a difference-maker. I think he had zero drops this year. More fluid than Vernon Davis.” Averaged 17.9 yards per catch in final season. “He’s better than the two guys from Iowa two years ago (T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant) combined,” a second scout said. “He has Hall of Fame potential as a receiver. Just unique.” Regarded by one team as the second-best player in the draft. “You look at (Travis) Kelce and (George) Kittle, the success they’ve had, there’s no comparison as far as athletic ability to this guy,” a third scout said. “I usually don’t go for that position that high, but I would take him in the top 10. He even tries to block. Played hurt, too. For a young quarterback, I’d like to have this guy on my team.” And for historical context, the 2017 QB’s SAM DARNOLD*, QB, Southern California: 6-3 ½, 221. Only one of the top quarterbacks that elected not to throw at the NFL combine Saturday in Indianapolis. Third-year sophomore gave up final two seasons of eligibility. “There was no need for him to stay,” said one scout. “Off the field is all there. The guy’s a winner. He’s a playmaker. He’s got a lot that you look for. You’ve got to take a chance with him.” Compared by another scout to Andrew Luck. “Luck went back for another year (at Stanford in 2011) and improved so much,” he said. “He needed to do what Luck did. The more I watched Darnold I see the same guy. Luck was a big-time athlete with a big-time arm. I didn’t like Darnold’s motion. He fumbles a lot because he drops his arm. Once he brings his arm up he’s really quick. Thing that impressed me the most about him is his eyes. Things don’t seem to bother him. If you watch the Ohio State game (in the Cotton Bowl) he got the crap kicked out of him in the first half but came back and had a great second half.” His 40-yard time was 4.85 seconds. “Quickest release of the bunch,” said a third scout. “He can move, too.” JOSH ROSEN*, QB, UCLA: 6-4, 226. Third-year junior with three seasons as the starter. “He may be the best pure passer of the bunch,” said one scout. “It all depends on his personality. Aaron Rodgers was a cocky (bleep) when he came out, too.” Another scout called Rosen the best pure thrower since Drew Brees. “He throws effortlessly,” he said. “His mechanics are excellent. Only thing that worries me about him is his body. He’s slightly built … he’s been banged up a lot. He also has not improved since his freshman year.” Noel Mazzone served as the Bruins’ offensive coordinator during Rosen’s freshman season before departing for Texas A&M. “The second year was a total disaster,” the scout said of 2016 when Kennedy Polamalu served as the Bruins’ coordinator. “This year (Rosen) came back a little bit.” Completed just 60.9% in his 30-game career. “He looks the part when he throws the ball but he lacks the rest of the assets you need to be a winning quarterback up here,” a third scout said. “Off the field he doesn’t have that profile you want for someone leading your team. He’s a talented pocket passer when things are clean but things aren’t clean in the NFL, you know?” Clocked 4.85. BAKER MAYFIELD, QB, Oklahoma: 6-0 ½, 215. In mid-October, former 49ers GM/Packers personnel man Scot McCloughan didn’t hesitate in anointing Mayfield as the No. 1 QB in the draft. “He reminds me of a shorter version of Brett Favre,” McCloughan, who went to work for the Browns last month as a consultant, told Fox sports radio. “Tough guy. He can throw it. He’s very confident, and he’s not afraid whatsoever … whatsoever. He’s a battler. I know saying Brett Favre’s a big name, and I was around him for a while, but this guy has talent.” McCloughan predicted three quarterbacks would land in the top 10 and five would be selected in the first round. “He’s got an arm, he’s got vision, he’s got toughness, he’s got poise, he’s got leadership, he wins,” said another scout. “If he was 6-2 there wouldn’t even be a question he’d be the No. 1 (overall pick). Russell Wilson is very much a comparison.” In December, he became the first walk-on to win the Heisman Trophy. “The coaches there (Oklahoma) say he’s not (Johnny) Manziel but I see Manziel,” said a third scout. “He’s bigger and stronger but not as fast or as quick. He’s short, his game’s outside the pocket and he’s not Drew Brees or Russell Wilson. He holds the ball. I think he has some problems seeing in the pocket. When he runs he doesn’t slide. In the NFL, when you play the game outside the pocket, eventually you’re going to get hurt.” Ran a 4.81 40. JOSH ALLEN*, QB, Wyoming: 6-5, 237. Farm boy from California who had zero offers out of high school and played one season in junior college. “He’s got incredible arm talent,” said one scout. “He had subpar talent around him. His accuracy issues aren’t that bad. He’s going in the top 10.” Fine athlete with good speed (4.75) and a 33 ½-inch vertical jump. “He reminds me of (Blake) Bortles,” a second scout said. “Bortles lacked consistent accuracy and I see the same thing with Allen. Big-time athlete but really an inconsistent passer. I don’t see (Carson) Wentz. Some people do because they had the same coach (Craig Bohl). Wentz was a very mature, confident person.” Two-year starter. “He looks the part and a good athlete,” a third scout said. “But you talk about lacking in being a winning quarterback. He has a lot of bad tape (even) at that level. Somebody will still take him high. Are we going on what the tape is and the production and the winning? Or are we going on this guy looks like he should be an NFL quarterback and how he throws the ball?” LAMAR JACKSON*, QB, Louisville: 6-2, 216. Finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2017 after winning it in 2016. “He’s overlooked,” one scout said. “I think people are just kind of taking the easy way out trying to evaluate him instead of actually looking at what he does and the offense he plays in and the throws he makes from the pocket. He’s come a long way from last year to (2017). He’s just not running around when he doesn’t have to … all you hear is Lamar runs all the time. It’s not the case. He takes care of the ball.” Third-year junior with 4,132 yards rushing (50 TDs) and a 57% completion mark. “He’s a lesser Robert Griffin,” another scout said. “He’s stronger physically than Griffin. I don’t know if he’s as fast but he’s close. Big-time athlete, but those guys don’t last long.” Added a third scout: “He’ll go in the second round. He’s got incredible athletic ability. I think he projects to receiver as opposed to a quarterback.” 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section314 Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Great post, thanks for sharing. Three things stand out to me......1) about TL.....when he played the elite competition, he was never the best player on the field. Damning. 2) Pennel sounds way over rated, especially for a LT. 3) Pitts....almost saying pass on him and you'll never forgive yourself. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redlichtie Posted March 21, 2021 Author Share Posted March 21, 2021 10 hours ago, section314 said: Great post, thanks for sharing. Three things stand out to me......1) about TL.....when he played the elite competition, he was never the best player on the field. Damning. 2) Pennel sounds way over rated, especially for a LT. 3) Pitts....almost saying pass on him and you'll never forgive yourself. Yep all 3 stood out to me too....that and first scout saying he’d take Wilson No1 overall. Right now I want no part of Sewell and if it’s not going to be QB at 2 and we can’t trade down then I’d just take Pitts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C Mart Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 What always stands out with McGinn’s takes are the various opinions of the scouts. Some are night and day apart. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxville Jets Fan Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 3 hours ago, C Mart said: What always stands out with McGinn’s takes are the various opinions of the scouts. Some are night and day apart. Exactly - I’ve been reading his draft articles for many years. There always seems to be at least one very negative opinion about all of them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redlichtie Posted March 21, 2021 Author Share Posted March 21, 2021 7 hours ago, Bronxville Jets Fan said: Exactly - I’ve been reading his draft articles for many years. There always seems to be at least one very negative opinion about all of them. I often wonder if that one negative dude is the same guy, just one angry miserable old school grump who hates everything....including the world!! it’s very interesting to go back and look at how those opinions stack up after 2 -3 years 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycdan Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 When Fidelio sees they listed Zach Wilson at 6'2" and one scout said he's 6'1" he's going to have a stroke. But it is interesting to see that scouts are very split on him (and some of the others). This board tends to get extreme on some of these guys (like Sewell as well). The only guy that seems to have unanimous scout-love is Pitts although Harris was almost right with him. Just a mental whimsy here, but imagine trading down a bit, putting Pitts and Harris on the offense with Sam. How does that compare to our current offense with Fields or Wilson? Many will jump to an immediate conclusion but they shouldn't. It would be a fascinating experiment and answer a lot of questions. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetstream23 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Man would I love for the Jets to find a way to land Rashawn Slater in this Draft! Assuming the Jets take Wilson at #2, find a team in the Top 12 or so (maybe a bit higher) who would take Darnold, the #23, and maybe another later pick (ex. #146) for the Jets to come up and get Slater. Maybe Denver at 9, Carolina at 8? Slater starts Day 1 at RG between McGovern and Fant. By next year he's the starting RT. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 On 3/20/2021 at 5:39 PM, C Mart said: What always stands out with McGinn’s takes are the various opinions of the scouts. Some are night and day apart. Gil Brandt said that people in the NFL have Fields anywhere from Top 10 to fourth round. Some people love Wilson some hate him. Interesting thing with Lawrence is that I think he is dropping in rating after scrutiny by a lot of people, but he is so entrenched as the "guy" that people are not willing to move off him. I have been all in on Wilson but was gently reminded today I hated Deshaun Watson. I did, I thought he was going to be completely awful in the NFL. I have spent a lot of time, much more than I ever have in analyzing the QBs and not two people see the same thing. Maybe that is why even first rounders are 50/50. I saw Brady at the combine and doing drills and he absolutely looked like a 6th rounder in every way. If you go back and look at the 2018 draft thread a LOT of people completely loved Rosen. Not an exact science. Really interesting to see that scouts are divided as we are. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section314 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 2 hours ago, johnnysd said: Gil Brandt said that people in the NFL have Fields anywhere from Top 10 to fourth round. Some people love Wilson some hate him. Interesting thing with Lawrence is that I think he is dropping in rating after scrutiny by a lot of people, but he is so entrenched as the "guy" that people are not willing to move off him. I have been all in on Wilson but was gently reminded today I hated Deshaun Watson. I did, I thought he was going to be completely awful in the NFL. I have spent a lot of time, much more than I ever have in analyzing the QBs and not two people see the same thing. Maybe that is why even first rounders are 50/50. I saw Brady at the combine and doing drills and he absolutely looked like a 6th rounder in every way. If you go back and look at the 2018 draft thread a LOT of people completely loved Rosen. Not an exact science. Really interesting to see that scouts are divided as we are. Guilty as charged.? I actually was shocked and disappointed that draft night when we didn't take him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redlichtie Posted April 9, 2021 Author Share Posted April 9, 2021 On 3/28/2021 at 1:12 PM, section314 said: Guilty as charged.? I actually was shocked and disappointed that draft night when we didn't take him. Same, I really did not want Darnold at all, saw all of the things we have subsequently understood to be his failings but really thought Rosen would be one of the successful guys from that class..it just goes to show how this process is so hard to gauge....the only thing that can be said with certainty is that nobody knows who will succeed and who will fail. Worth keeping an eye on the Athletic in the next few days as McGinn will probably begin his individual position group draft preview, again very much based on those scouts takes. if I can I will post some highlights or players of most interest to the Jets. Dane Brugler has also posted up his draft preview which is pretty interesting 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chirorob Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 54 minutes ago, redlichtie said: Same, I really did not want Darnold at all, saw all of the things we have subsequently understood to be his failings but really thought Rosen would be one of the successful guys from that class..it just goes to show how this process is so hard to gauge....the only thing that can be said with certainty is that nobody knows who will succeed and who will fail. Worth keeping an eye on the Athletic in the next few days as McGinn will probably begin his individual position group draft preview, again very much based on those scouts takes. if I can I will post some highlights or players of most interest to the Jets. Dane Brugler has also posted up his draft preview which is pretty interesting I liked Rosen, I did not like Darnold all that much. I figured guys that turn it over in college will turn it over in the NFL. I also figured guys who aren't accurate in college aren't accurate in the NFL. Josh Allen has made me rethink that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redlichtie Posted April 9, 2021 Author Share Posted April 9, 2021 7 hours ago, chirorob said: I liked Rosen, I did not like Darnold all that much. I figured guys that turn it over in college will turn it over in the NFL. I also figured guys who aren't accurate in college aren't accurate in the NFL. Josh Allen has made me rethink that one. Yep agree, I actually love that Josh Allen has been so successful for that reason, because guys like him force us all to constantly question and reevaluate everything we think we know and to never be complacent.....and to never ever assume that only those who follow a pattern or conform to a stereotype can ever be successful in the league....that’s a good thing IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 Gee the things a few of us said all year about Lawrence and this 'generational' nonsense and praying for us to lose to the likes of the pats suddenly start showing up 'by those in the know' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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