Joe Douglas Observations and The Kingpin move he may be planning.

[football guy]

2 hours ago, slats said:

I really appreciate @football guy's posts, but I remain of the impression that the #2 pick could command much more than that. I don't believe that there are many teams out there that might have equal grades on more than two or three of these QBs. In fact, I'm certain that there are teams that have fallen in love with specific QBs - because they always do. 

All it would take is one in love, especially with Wilson, to get them to pay the price to move up. And I get that Joe Douglas has not been the perfect GM so far, but his trades have generally been very good. Getting two first rounders for Jamal Adams seeming more incredible today than it did at the time. If he trades the pick, he'll do much better than a second and future first. 

But also, I suspect that they're just taking a QB there. It's going to be a QB going #2 overall, it's just a matter of who's taking him. 

So much is in motion, and the recent lawsuits filed against Deshaun Watson muddy it even more. That was Carolina’s fantasy plan, but he’s not going to get dealt before the draft. So will they pay the premium to move up to #2, or will they sit tight/move up a few spots to keep their options open in future years (maybe a Deshaun trade next season)? Atlanta may draft a QB and even move up to get one, but how about this for next level thinking: monitor the Deshaun situation through 2021, and if the off-the-field stuff gets settled make a run at him next offseason. If he never becomes available or gets suspended, you still have Matt Ryan as a fallback. I don’t think Philadelphia, Detroit, or Denver are in the market to move up to #2, but cannot rule them out to take a QB either. I don’t get the sense the Jets would be comfortable moving out of the top 10, which would eliminate San Francisco and New England but won’t rule it out entirely. Washington is too far back to get up to #2. I don’t think Chicago’s FO will not get the blessing from ownership to mortgage multiple 1st round picks unless it’s a proven star QB, so if they were to draft one it would probably be in the teens.

Ultimately I see the Jets trading down to #8, but not with the level of conviction I had a few weeks ago. Carolina is ultra aggressive and if they fall in love with Wilson, they’ll cave to Joe’s price, but the question becomes whether they’re blowing smoke about liking the other QBs or if there’s a real strategy behind it. Everyone knew they really liked Lance before the process unfolded, but they’ve really sold their love for Mac Jones and how he fits in that offense since the Sr. Bowl. Could easily see them sitting at 8 and taking Jones. 

If negotiations get tense and the Jets get cold feet, I think they’ll trade Darnold to the highest bidder. I don’t think they want to risk sitting there at 2 without getting what they determine to be FMV, because if they took Wilson Darnold’s market would be depressed anyway... they don’t want to do what Arizona did a few years ago (take Murray, then trade Rosen) because they feel that would limit both trade angles. I get the sense that this will go down sooner than later because the organizational “goal” is to make a decision by April 9, but what’s important to note is that doesn’t necessarily make it a hard-line one... ultimately the cards are in Joe’s hands. 

[CanadaSteve]

9 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

I'm glad you have a strawman to make you feel better, but I didn't say that. 

Forgive me,  but it sure sounded like it.

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

I don't mind paying him either if he's the guy.  The problem is, when you pay him you're mostly married to him then...and if he's just mediocre you're stuck in purgatory.

kinda like the raiders or lions have been for so long.  Good enough to stick around, but not good enough to win you anything.  So you're winning 7-9 games every year - until you start over at QB.  

I would rather have sh*tty QB play than mediocre QB play.  sh*tty QB allows you to start over.

If the Lions' had surrounded Stafford with elite talent, they would have been a 10-6 type team every year. So the question is whether, if you surround Darnold with elite talent, could he be a winning QB. I am not even so sure of that. So that is what Joe needs to figure out. 

[FidelioJet]

10 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

If the Lions' had surrounded Stafford with elite talent, they would have been a 10-6 type team every year. So the question is whether, if you surround Darnold with elite talent, could he be a winning QB. I am not even so sure of that. So that is what Joe needs to figure out. 

I agree.  I think at best.  And this is a very big leap - he becomes Mathew Stafford.  Sure, he can win 10 games, maybe even a playoff game or two over the years...

But Matt Stafford, IMO, will never be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.  Maybe I'm wrong - he can do something with the Rams, but I just don't see it.

I want to win a Super Bowl, not a playoff games every 3 or 4 years.  The way to be competitive EVERY year is to find an elite QB.  IMO, gotta keep trying until you find one.

[Big_Slick]

2 hours ago, slats said:

Lol, this fanbase is about as jaded as one can be, and this board is a disgruntled microcosm of that. 

Sam Darnold was the #1 QB prospect for a full year and a half before Dorsey shocked the football world and took Mayfield #1. Scouts and executives around the league had very high marks on him then, and I'm sure many still do now. There's no question that the Jets completely ****ed up their handling of Darnold and did absolutely nothing to support him. This is obvious to anyone around the league watching. All it takes is one coach or GM who believes they can resuscitate Sam Darnold's career. 

Like I said, I suspect we'll find out what the best offer for Darnold was. 

Yep, Dorsey did shock the football world taking Baker #1 OA and after that pick I was totally bummed out just knowing that Sam had fallen right into the Giants lap. I was even more shocked when the #2 OA  pick was announced. Gettlemen takes a RB when they obviously needed a QB with Ely on his last legs. A RB at #2 OA has to be one of the worst moves by a GM in the last 20 years.

If - IF JD decides to roll it again with Sam we may never know what was actually offered. GM's may leak supposed offers that were never made and I don't think JD will ever disclose what his actual asking price was. The whole 'we're willing to listen to trade proposals for Sam' that JD announced in the press conference could have been solely intended to drive up the trade value for the #2 OA pick.

[Big_Slick]

30 minutes ago, football guy said:

So much is in motion, and the recent lawsuits filed against Deshaun Watson muddy it even more. That was Carolina’s fantasy plan, but he’s not going to get dealt before the draft. So will they pay the premium to move up to #2, or will they sit tight/move up a few spots to keep their options open in future years (maybe a Deshaun trade next season)? Atlanta may draft a QB and even move up to get one, but how about this for next level thinking: monitor the Deshaun situation through 2021, and if the off-the-field stuff gets settled make a run at him next offseason. If he never becomes available or gets suspended, you still have Matt Ryan as a fallback. I don’t think Philadelphia, Detroit, or Denver are in the market to move up to #2, but cannot rule them out to take a QB either. I don’t get the sense the Jets would be comfortable moving out of the top 10, which would eliminate San Francisco and New England but won’t rule it out entirely. Washington is too far back to get up to #2. I don’t think Chicago’s FO will not get the blessing from ownership to mortgage multiple 1st round picks unless it’s a proven star QB, so if they were to draft one it would probably be in the teens.

Ultimately I see the Jets trading down to #8, but not with the level of conviction I had a few weeks ago. Carolina is ultra aggressive and if they fall in love with Wilson, they’ll cave to Joe’s price, but the question becomes whether they’re blowing smoke about liking the other QBs or if there’s a real strategy behind it. Everyone knew they really liked Lance before the process unfolded, but they’ve really sold their love for Mac Jones and how he fits in that offense since the Sr. Bowl. Could easily see them sitting at 8 and taking Jones. 

If negotiations get tense and the Jets get cold feet, I think they’ll trade Darnold to the highest bidder. I don’t think they want to risk sitting there at 2 without getting what they determine to be FMV, because if they took Wilson Darnold’s market would be depressed anyway... they don’t want to do what Arizona did a few years ago (take Murray, then trade Rosen) because they feel that would limit both trade angles. I get the sense that this will go down sooner than later because the organizational “goal” is to make a decision by April 9, but what’s important to note is that doesn’t necessarily make it a hard-line one... ultimately the cards are in Joe’s hands. 

Are you absolutely ruling out the Jets rolling it again with Sam and taking Sewell at #2 OA if JD doesn't receive what he considers to be a FMV trade offer?

[football guy]

3 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

Are you absolutely ruling out the Jets rolling it again with Sam and taking Sewell at #2 OA if JD doesn't receive what he considers to be a FMV trade offer?

I would put my money on that not happening personally. I think they would take a deal below FMV before sitting at 2 and taking a non-QB if they absolutely felt 100% committed to Darnold

[jeremy2020]

36 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Forgive me,  but it sure sounded like it.

My statement isn't really even about Douglas himself, but the people on this forum who act like things that haven't happened yet.. have happened.

It goes both ways like writing off a rookie class that had an stunted pre-season and was injured or predicting the success/failure of a QB that isn't on a team yet when the best evaluators in the world have shown to be wildly unsuccessful at determining if a QB can play well in the NFL.

[football guy]

38 minutes ago, football guy said:

So much is in motion, and the recent lawsuits filed against Deshaun Watson muddy it even more. That was Carolina’s fantasy plan, but he’s not going to get dealt before the draft. So will they pay the premium to move up to #2, or will they sit tight/move up a few spots to keep their options open in future years (maybe a Deshaun trade next season)? Atlanta may draft a QB and even move up to get one, but how about this for next level thinking: monitor the Deshaun situation through 2021, and if the off-the-field stuff gets settled make a run at him next offseason. If he never becomes available or gets suspended, you still have Matt Ryan as a fallback. I don’t think Philadelphia, Detroit, or Denver are in the market to move up to #2, but cannot rule them out to take a QB either. I don’t get the sense the Jets would be comfortable moving out of the top 10, which would eliminate San Francisco and New England but won’t rule it out entirely. Washington is too far back to get up to #2. I don’t think Chicago’s FO will not get the blessing from ownership to mortgage multiple 1st round picks unless it’s a proven star QB, so if they were to draft one it would probably be in the teens.

Ultimately I see the Jets trading down to #8, but not with the level of conviction I had a few weeks ago. Carolina is ultra aggressive and if they fall in love with Wilson, they’ll cave to Joe’s price, but the question becomes whether they’re blowing smoke about liking the other QBs or if there’s a real strategy behind it. Everyone knew they really liked Lance before the process unfolded, but they’ve really sold their love for Mac Jones and how he fits in that offense since the Sr. Bowl. Could easily see them sitting at 8 and taking Jones. 

If negotiations get tense and the Jets get cold feet, I think they’ll trade Darnold to the highest bidder. I don’t think they want to risk sitting there at 2 without getting what they determine to be FMV, because if they took Wilson Darnold’s market would be depressed anyway... they don’t want to do what Arizona did a few years ago (take Murray, then trade Rosen) because they feel that would limit both trade angles. I get the sense that this will go down sooner than later because the organizational “goal” is to make a decision by April 9, but what’s important to note is that doesn’t necessarily make it a hard-line one... ultimately the cards are in Joe’s hands. 

Just to elaborate on this a little further, here's the way the trade market was described to me: 

Teams use "comps" for trades the same way real estate agents use them for leases/purchases. They rely on this historical data, plus draft charts and analytical data to determine what they feel is FMV. If a team has a high grade on a player that is clearly going to go #2, they'll add a premium to it. If I own a home and I toy with the idea of selling it at my price, even if that price seems high, there may be a buyer for it, right? It all comes down to how much the buyer values that particular asset. 

So for the Jets, they want a return scaled something in between what the 2016 Titans (#1), 2016 Browns (#2), 2017 49ers (#2), and 2018 Colts (#3), and the 2012 Rams (#2). I think most in the industry throw out the 2012 trade because that was an over-aggressive owner making the deal more-so than the football administration, but I think the Jets feel David Tepper could be that guy this time around. Chances are they'll probably need to settle for less---closer to the Wentz deal. 

On the flip side, the Panthers football operations see the Wentz deal as more than what's FMV and may not behoove them as much as other options are. The owner wants a big splash, but they have their football analytics team working to figure out what makes sense. They don't want to overpay, and they are considering that it's possible not to make a major trade and still come out as winners (see LAC-Justin Herbert). When the Jets and Panthers start talking again (likely after the pro-days, if not at them), the Panthers will probably balk at the Jets initially for the very fact that the past precedent on what is "fair" does not meet the present definition of "fair" because (1) the teams that made those big trade ups got worked in the end; and (2) this QB class is deeper with Round 1 talent than any of those classes, minus the 2018 class. Why pay the premium to go to #2 when they can possibly swap with the Eagles for much less? 

Where discussions go from there will be fascinating. If Carolina's bluffing about liking other QBs enough to take them at #8/trade up for them and in reality are infatuated with Wilson, then I think they'll get a deal done. The deal may not be quite what the Eagles paid, but would probably be more in the short-term (a 2nd + a future 1st, but no future 2nd and mid-round picks). If they're not bluffing, then the Jets are in a pickle, at which point I would think the chances of them trading Darnold increase for the sole reason of getting the most value out of the 2 assets (QB Darnold + value of #2 vs. QB #2 + value of Darnold). 

[Shockwave]

4 minutes ago, football guy said:

Where discussions go from there will be fascinating. If Carolina's bluffing about liking other QBs enough to take them at #8/trade up for them and in reality are infatuated with Wilson, then I think they'll get a deal done. The deal may not be quite what the Eagles paid, but would probably be more in the short-term (a 2nd + a future 1st, but no future 2nd and mid-round picks). If they're not bluffing, then the Jets are in a pickle, at which point I would think the chances of them trading Darnold increase for the sole reason of getting the most value out of the 2 assets (QB Darnold + value of #2 vs. QB #2 + value of Darnold). 

Obviously don't have your insight or connections but this is interesting part here I was thinking about earlier. 

The Decision may come down to 

Moving down to 8  and getting hopefully 1.8, 2.8 and a future first.

vs 

Trading Darnold for 2.13 or later. To me the Niners are frankly the only team that makes sense as they have not added a QB, have a injured QB and will miss out on the top guys. Denver/Carolina can just draft a QB. 

The Difference at that point between Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold in equity is simply a future first from Carolina that could be in the teens. If the difference is that small is it really worth it to pass on Wilson who will clearly be much cheaper with no contract needed for years?

 

 

[section314]

9 minutes ago, football guy said:

Just to elaborate on this a little further, here's the way the trade market was described to me: 

Teams use "comps" for trades the same way real estate agents use them for leases/purchases. They rely on this historical data, plus draft charts and analytical data to determine what they feel is FMV. If a team has a high grade on a player that is clearly going to go #2, they'll add a premium to it. If I own a home and I toy with the idea of selling it at my price, even if that price seems high, there may be a buyer for it, right? It all comes down to how much the buyer values that particular asset. 

So for the Jets, they want a return scaled something in between what the 2016 Titans (#1), 2016 Browns (#2), 2017 49ers (#2), and 2018 Colts (#3), and the 2012 Rams (#2). I think most in the industry throw out the 2012 trade because that was an over-aggressive owner making the deal more-so than the football administration, but I think the Jets feel David Tepper could be that guy this time around. Chances are they'll probably need to settle for less---closer to the Wentz deal. 

On the flip side, the Panthers football operations see the Wentz deal as more than what's FMV and may not behoove them as much as other options are. The owner wants a big splash, but they have their football analytics team working to figure out what makes sense. They don't want to overpay, and they are considering that it's possible not to make a major trade and still come out as winners (see LAC-Justin Herbert). When the Jets and Panthers start talking again (likely after the pro-days, if not at them), the Panthers will probably balk at the Jets initially for the very fact that the past precedent on what is "fair" does not meet the present definition of "fair" because (1) the teams that made those big trade ups got worked in the end; and (2) this QB class is deeper with Round 1 talent than any of those classes, minus the 2018 class. Why pay the premium to go to #2 when they can possibly swap with the Eagles for much less? 

Where discussions go from there will be fascinating. If Carolina's bluffing about liking other QBs enough to take them at #8/trade up for them and in reality are infatuated with Wilson, then I think they'll get a deal done. The deal may not be quite what the Eagles paid, but would probably be more in the short-term (a 2nd + a future 1st, but no future 2nd and mid-round picks). If they're not bluffing, then the Jets are in a pickle, at which point I would think the chances of them trading Darnold increase for the sole reason of getting the most value out of the 2 assets (QB Darnold + value of #2 vs. QB #2 + value of Darnold). 

Two questions....1) April9th...obviously the Sam trade date decision?  2) any word from your guys if Morgan is a part of any of this at all?

[football guy]

8 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Obviously don't have your insight or connections but this is interesting part here I was thinking about earlier. 

The Decision may come down to 

Moving down to 8  and getting hopefully 1.8, 2.8 and a future first.

vs 

Trading Darnold for 2.13 or later. To me the Niners are frankly the only team that makes sense as they have not added a QB, have a injured QB and will miss out on the top guys. Denver/Carolina can just draft a QB. 

The Difference at that point between Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold in equity is simply a future first from Carolina that could be in the teens. If the difference is that small is it really worth it to pass on Wilson who will clearly be much cheaper with no contract needed for years?

Pretty much this, but I think the red is where you may be off. If the difference is close, the Jets will favor Darnold because it opens them up to take an elite positional player in the top 10 and get a few elite picks back, even if they don't get what they felt was "FMV". Have to look at it from a team prospective... what roster is better? I'm just using it as an example, but just look at it in the short-term: Darnold + Kyle Pitts (#8) or Wilson + Freiermuth (#43 for Darnold)?

If they grade Wilson much higher than Darnold, factoring in that Darnold is entering his 4th year and Wilson is younger on a rookie contract, then they'll say it's not worth haggling over future draft capital when they have a guy they feel really confident in on a rookie deal. 

[section314]

7 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Obviously don't have your insight or connections but this is interesting part here I was thinking about earlier. 

The Decision may come down to 

Moving down to 8  and getting hopefully 1.8, 2.8 and a future first.

vs 

Trading Darnold for 2.13 or later. To me the Niners are frankly the only team that makes sense as they have not added a QB, have a injured QB and will miss out on the top guys. Denver/Carolina can just draft a QB. 

The Difference at that point between Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold in equity is simply a future first from Carolina that could be in the teens. If the difference is that small is it really worth it to pass on Wilson who will clearly be much cheaper with no contract needed for years?

 

 

I have Denver in our JN mock and I have started doing my studying and due diligence on them....reading their team site, local writers, and their fan boards. After what they've done in FA, the consensus now is that the Broncos will attempt to move up from #9 to try to get a QB, obviously depending on how the board falls. May even be able to stay put, who knows? That said, if they can't get one on day 1, the idea of trading for Sam before rd2 starts is a possibility. Wouldn't count them out.

[football guy]

12 minutes ago, section314 said:

Two questions....1) April9th...obviously the Sam trade date decision?  2) any word from your guys if Morgan is a part of any of this at all?

Apparently the FO goal was to have a consensus which direction they are favoring come that date. I don't think that's a "drop-dead date", but it gives you an idea that the Jets want to know what path they're favoring soon. 

No. Please stop asking about Morgan. He's purely viewed as a developmental backup, and I refuse to ask questions about him lol (sorry if I come off as a douche responding this way, but lets stop fantasizing about Morgan) 

[THE BARON]

On 3/20/2021 at 5:26 PM, Shockwave said:

Not much time to post but Douglas certainly is interesting so far from what we know so far. The thoughts below are from the moves he has made so far in his time here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas does not leak. 

First and foremost we are all looking for rumors and the Jets direction right now. With the utmost confidence I can tell you that whatever you are hearing from whatever "Sources" are either :

A) just hypothetical guesses that are simply correct a random % of the time. 

B ) Leaks that Joe Douglas wants you to hear. For Example the CJ Mosley news should just tell you that Joe Douglas wants someone to call him to trade for CJ. which is just super intelligent looking at that contract/age. His opt out last year left us in this situation that he has a very low salary this year before his contract goes back to sucking next year. Look for us to deal him before the draft. 

If you go over the Corey Davis or Carl Lawson signings who projected them? No one. Most of our moves are just air tight until they happen and you really have to give Joe Douglas credit for this. 

Yet all we are hearing is how we how many people "Know" the jets will be taking Zach Wilson. Yet if this was the case shouldn't he have traded Sam Darnold by now? His actions and "The Leaks" are telling two different stories here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas has a pre set value system that he stands by. Likely from his Baltimore Days. 

You all have seen it in Free Agency as well as the draft last year. He sticks to his tiers and rankings and he is picking the next man up. Certainly this could lead to a "Move Up" for the last player in a tier however I don't think you're going to see Joe fall in love with any one player ever. The First time we were on the Clock with Denzel Mims on the Board we traded down. With that being said I just don't see Joe sitting there and saying he "Loves" and must have "Zach Wilson" bc I don't think he is going to say that about anyone. He will simply get value and get guys that fit the system. 

Last years Kingpin move. 

We went into last year needing WR more than anything. It was the biggest WR in a long time they all said. With Denzel Mims on the board and the entire Jets nation slamming the table to draft him he traded pick 48 for picks 59 and 101 from seattle. . Pick 101 was then traded to NE for 125, 129 and a 6th round pick this year. 

So instead of just taking Dezel Mims we ended up with Denzel Mims, Two Fourth rounders and 6th round pick this year. Badass Move. 

 

So Lets Put it all together and make a prediction for this years Kingpin Move Prediction. 

• The Leaks you hearing about Zach Wilson are by design. 
• Joe Douglas gets excited about trading for 6th round picks. You really think hes going to pass on a RGIII type return for this pick? 
• Are these FA moves convincing you Joe Douglas is acting like we will be competing for the playoffs this year? No. This is a long build. 
• We are trading this pick to wherever that first tier of players ends. With 8 Elite Players, Carolina wanting to overpay for a QB and Watson staying in Houston its looking like we will be trading down to the 8th pick in the next few weeks. 

So who are we taking?

• Joe Douglas seems extremely comfortable with 1 year deals and the Time to trade Sam Darnold has passed. We are going into the draft with the 8th pick and telling the world Sam Darnold is our QB this year. 
• The Jets will be absolutely fine actually going into next year with Sam Darnold. Perhaps we even go grab Marcus Mariotta as his backup too just incase. We will all talk about grabbing Patrick Surtain or Kyle Pitts which would be great moves.
• But whats the Kingpin move? The kind of move Baltimore makes every year?

 

Instead of Taking Zach Wilson at 2 The Jets are going to drop back and grab Two extra first, Two extra seconds and an extra mid round pick from Carolina and grab Justin Fields when he drops to the 8th pick. Same thing like Mim's last year. They will then trade Sam Darnold that night before day 2 and go into next year with Fields and Mariotta at QB. Just like Baltimore every year they will look brilliant. Kingpin. 

Don't think this could happen?

In the 2008 Draft the Ravens had the 8th pick. They traded Down to 26 and scored extra picks and then came up for Flacco. "They didn't just take their guy". 

Look at the 2018 draft. They passed on Lamar Jackson before coming back up in a trade up to take him later on. Again - They didn't just take their guy. 

Ozzie is the guy that Douglas was trained by. We are taking the value all day and not falling in love with anyone. Perhaps we land Fields and are the talk of the town for looking brilliant. But whats the worse case? We end up loaded in the draft the next few years and end up with Darnold, Pitts or Surtain? Forget all other rationale in your head and just focus on Douglas's moves so far and the way Ozzie made his moves and this situation is as clear as day.

Douglas is not falling in love with anyone. So before this becomes a Wilson vs Fields thread or Sam thread - Its not about that. This is about value. We are not getting anyone we individually love. Joe is making that tier of elite players and we are grabbing the last one in that tier. He is not designing this team with an intention to make the playoffs. This is about building a team and culture. Prepare for a long ride. 

 

 

 

 

I would not take Fields with a compensatory pick after round 7.  He's a bust.   So is Wilson, btw...

[section314]

2 minutes ago, football guy said:

Apparently the FO goal was to have a consensus which direction they are favoring come that date. I don't think that's a "drop-dead date", but it gives you an idea that the Jets want to know what path they're favoring soon. 

No. Please stop asking about Morgan. He's purely viewed as a developmental backup, and I refuse to ask questions about him lol (sorry if I come off as a douche responding this way, but lets stop fantasizing about Morgan) 

Okay, but I still think Jessica Biel is gonna return my call.?

[peebag]

On 3/20/2021 at 4:37 PM, oatmeal said:

Hey as long as the redhead is jettisoned idc which QB they draft. Can’t stomach another season of terrible QB play and the excuses for that terrible play. I can already hear the “Sam needs time this is his 3rd coach, this is a new system, etc 

Just wait until you hear that about the "new" qb 3 years down the road.

[Sperm Edwards]

On 3/23/2021 at 11:12 AM, football guy said:

So much is in motion, and the recent lawsuits filed against Deshaun Watson muddy it even more. That was Carolina’s fantasy plan, but he’s not going to get dealt before the draft. So will they pay the premium to move up to #2, or will they sit tight/move up a few spots to keep their options open in future years (maybe a Deshaun trade next season)? Atlanta may draft a QB and even move up to get one, but how about this for next level thinking: monitor the Deshaun situation through 2021, and if the off-the-field stuff gets settled make a run at him next offseason. If he never becomes available or gets suspended, you still have Matt Ryan as a fallback. I don’t think Philadelphia, Detroit, or Denver are in the market to move up to #2, but cannot rule them out to take a QB either. I don’t get the sense the Jets would be comfortable moving out of the top 10, which would eliminate San Francisco and New England but won’t rule it out entirely. Washington is too far back to get up to #2. I don’t think Chicago’s FO will not get the blessing from ownership to mortgage multiple 1st round picks unless it’s a proven star QB, so if they were to draft one it would probably be in the teens.

Ultimately I see the Jets trading down to #8, but not with the level of conviction I had a few weeks ago. Carolina is ultra aggressive and if they fall in love with Wilson, they’ll cave to Joe’s price, but the question becomes whether they’re blowing smoke about liking the other QBs or if there’s a real strategy behind it. Everyone knew they really liked Lance before the process unfolded, but they’ve really sold their love for Mac Jones and how he fits in that offense since the Sr. Bowl. Could easily see them sitting at 8 and taking Jones. 

If negotiations get tense and the Jets get cold feet, I think they’ll trade Darnold to the highest bidder. I don’t think they want to risk sitting there at 2 without getting what they determine to be FMV, because if they took Wilson Darnold’s market would be depressed anyway... they don’t want to do what Arizona did a few years ago (take Murray, then trade Rosen) because they feel that would limit both trade angles. I get the sense that this will go down sooner than later because the organizational “goal” is to make a decision by April 9, but what’s important to note is that doesn’t necessarily make it a hard-line one... ultimately the cards are in Joe’s hands. 

Perhaps, but I'd think whether the Jets draft another QB first or not, another team realizes they are no longer interested in keeping him. His trade value really only plummets if all but one team backs out, or based upon what other options are available to those interested teams, not so much whether or not they've already drafted someone else. JMO. 

Not on the same scale, of course, but the Jets had already drafted Davis with a day 2 pick before getting a huge package (hey now!) for Adams. 

I think if Darnold's salary was much higher it might be a factor but the Jets won't be in a position where they just can't make him fit in there (hey now again!). 

That's all if they draft another QB and aren't just returning with Darnold in the first place, of course.

[football guy]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Perhaps, but I'd think whether the Jets draft another QB first or not, another team realizes they are no longer interested in keeping him. His trade value really only plummets if all but one team backs out, or based upon what other options are available to those interested teams, not so much whether or not they've already drafted someone else. JMO. 

Not on the same scale, of course, but the Jets had already drafted Davis with a day 2 pick before getting a huge package (hey now!) for Adams. 

I think if Darnold's salary was much higher it might be a factor but the Jets won't be in a position where they just can't make him fit in there (hey now again!). 

That's all if they draft another QB and aren't just returning with Darnold in the first place, of course.

Sure and I think it's plausible to say that there could be a few teams that lose out on musical chairs who would turn their attention to Darnold, but I'd think his market would be depressed unless the Jets held onto him through training camp and someone were to lose their starting QB or something. Selecting Davis really didn't change anything with regards to Adams because there are 2 starting S's in a lineup, a 3rd round pick isn't necessarily viewed as a "replacement" (would be different if they drafted a S in round 1, pick 11), and with Maye due to hit FA in 2021 it seemed as though Davis would be given an opportunity to replace him (or Adams had he been traded)

[32EBoozer]

On 3/23/2021 at 12:30 PM, football guy said:

Apparently the FO goal was to have a consensus which direction they are favoring come that date. I don't think that's a "drop-dead date", but it gives you an idea that the Jets want to know what path they're favoring soon. 

No. Please stop asking about Morgan. He's purely viewed as a developmental backup, and I refuse to ask questions about him lol (sorry if I come off as a douche responding this way, but lets stop fantasizing about Morgan) 

Dak, Brady, Cousins & a dozen others say hi. There is no reason Morgan can be more than a backup if given a fair chance

[JohnnyLV]

On 3/22/2021 at 12:33 PM, Big_Slick said:

Hey, it's all good. It's not that I don't like Zack, it's just that he hasn't proven anything against top level competition. I don't feel like he's worth the gamble a #2 OA. I'd rate him as a low 1st round prospect and that's based solely on the talent level he's played against and his one year of success.

If we didn't blow the #1 OA pick I'd be all in on taking TL and trading Sam.

There is zero correlation between level of competition and success in the NFL. Literally zero. A high prospect from a small school has the same likelihood of success as a big school QB. Look it is simple. The only thing that matters is this: If Saleh/LaFleur/JD think there is a good chance for Wilson to be a FQB and he passes his physical they will take him. Everything else is complete white noise. 2-14 teams with the worst QB in the NFL do not pass on QBs. Usually they trade up. The mental gymanastics people are doing to justify not taking Wilson is fairly amazing.

 

[JohnnyLV]

On 3/23/2021 at 9:28 AM, football guy said:

Pretty much this, but I think the red is where you may be off. If the difference is close, the Jets will favor Darnold because it opens them up to take an elite positional player in the top 10 and get a few elite picks back, even if they don't get what they felt was "FMV". Have to look at it from a team prospective... what roster is better? I'm just using it as an example, but just look at it in the short-term: Darnold + Kyle Pitts (#8) or Wilson + Freiermuth (#43 for Darnold)?

If they grade Wilson much higher than Darnold, factoring in that Darnold is entering his 4th year and Wilson is younger on a rookie contract, then they'll say it's not worth haggling over future draft capital when they have a guy they feel really confident in on a rookie deal. 

Here's the thing I cant get my head around. There is literally nothing at all to suggest that Sam will somehow be good. Why does anyone think that they won't rate Wilson as a much better prospect? He is plus he does not cost draft capital and he plays on a rookie contract.

I mean seriously? Has a team ever in desparate need of QB at the top of the draft NOT taking a QB. Maybe there are a couple but they are exceedingly unlikely. It is also FAR more likely for someone to try and get to 3 than 2 because they know the Jets need a QB.

[JohnnyLV]

On 3/21/2021 at 9:50 AM, Big_Slick said:

The only problem is that there is only one FQB in this draft and TL will be the #1 OA pick. That's why he tries to trade down, which is very easy to say but much much harder to accomplish without being on the losing end of the trade and I don't see that happening.

Going back to his statement on team-building philosophy from his introductory press conference, "After that (QB being most important), offensive and defensive lines. JD: "Football is a game of wills."

Failing a trade down I believe that Sewell will be the Jets pick at #2 OA.

I think the Jets taking Sewell is the least likely of all scenarios. It would never happen. Either they pick Wilson or trade down. The only player they are taking at #2 is a QB. Taking Sewell would be idiotic.

[doitny]

On 3/20/2021 at 5:58 PM, adobolo2 said:

Great post and Very well tought out and something similar to what I've been thinking (except the fields part)

If sam was been traded he'd be gone by now and not for one second do I believe we are waiting on pro days to make the decision.

The trade up from 23 for a fields/trask/jones is a high possibility that most are not considering.

what is the rush to trade Sam. we have 45 days before the draft.

JD is playing chicken. seeing who going to blink first. 

a million things can happen in these 45 days. a QB could be suspended....a QB could get hurt playing golf. then maybe a team calls JD and gives in to what he wants for Sam.

hell 2 weeks ago Watson was still going to be Houstons QB, now there going to need one. who know who else might need one in the next 2 weeks.

we could wait for draft day.

we pick Wilson at 2 and teams just like you, thought because Sam was still on the roster we were keeping him and not drafting a QB.

now theres one less QB on the board then they planned and they call JD an give in to his demands.

Sam will be traded. JD has 45 days to get his price, it not he will be forced to take less.

[adobolo2]

16 minutes ago, doitny said:

what is the rush to trade Sam. we have 45 days before the draft.

JD is playing chicken. seeing who going to blink first. 

a million things can happen in these 45 days. a QB could be suspended....a QB could get hurt playing golf. then maybe a team calls JD and gives in to what he wants for Sam.

hell 2 weeks ago Watson was still going to be Houstons QB, now there going to need one. who know who else might need one in the next 2 weeks.

we could wait for draft day.

we pick Wilson at 2 and teams just like you, thought because Sam was still on the roster we were keeping him and not drafting a QB.

now theres one less QB on the board then they planned and they call JD an give in to his demands.

Sam will be traded. JD has 45 days to get his price, it not he will be forced to take less.

That's what's great about this situation, everyone has a different take and interpreting every little bit of news/leaks differently depending on which side of the Darnold fence your are on.

As I've said in other posts Darnold has a price as do 90% of players in the NFL and if someone pays that price he will be traded.

I believe Joe has set that price high because he knows sam is a good QB and lucky enough joe doesn't read this message board or he'd start to think Sam is the worst QB ever to pick up a pigskin.

I think the chances of Sam been traded are slim and he will be our QB next year and successful.

I'm not a Wilson fan but I am also not a QB evaluator so I could be 100% wrong about him but I've watched a lot of his 2019 games and most of his 2020 games and a lot of it is extremely exciting and big play after big play but there is a lot I don't like and doesn't sit well with me but it's a personal decision and not one that is in line with the national media so I'm most likely wrong but only time will tell that.

 

[Lizard King]

On 3/23/2021 at 12:05 PM, football guy said:

Just to elaborate on this a little further, here's the way the trade market was described to me: 

Teams use "comps" for trades the same way real estate agents use them for leases/purchases. They rely on this historical data, plus draft charts and analytical data to determine what they feel is FMV. If a team has a high grade on a player that is clearly going to go #2, they'll add a premium to it. If I own a home and I toy with the idea of selling it at my price, even if that price seems high, there may be a buyer for it, right? It all comes down to how much the buyer values that particular asset. 

So for the Jets, they want a return scaled something in between what the 2016 Titans (#1), 2016 Browns (#2), 2017 49ers (#2), and 2018 Colts (#3), and the 2012 Rams (#2). I think most in the industry throw out the 2012 trade because that was an over-aggressive owner making the deal more-so than the football administration, but I think the Jets feel David Tepper could be that guy this time around. Chances are they'll probably need to settle for less---closer to the Wentz deal. 

On the flip side, the Panthers football operations see the Wentz deal as more than what's FMV and may not behoove them as much as other options are. The owner wants a big splash, but they have their football analytics team working to figure out what makes sense. They don't want to overpay, and they are considering that it's possible not to make a major trade and still come out as winners (see LAC-Justin Herbert). When the Jets and Panthers start talking again (likely after the pro-days, if not at them), the Panthers will probably balk at the Jets initially for the very fact that the past precedent on what is "fair" does not meet the present definition of "fair" because (1) the teams that made those big trade ups got worked in the end; and (2) this QB class is deeper with Round 1 talent than any of those classes, minus the 2018 class. Why pay the premium to go to #2 when they can possibly swap with the Eagles for much less? 

Where discussions go from there will be fascinating. If Carolina's bluffing about liking other QBs enough to take them at #8/trade up for them and in reality are infatuated with Wilson, then I think they'll get a deal done. The deal may not be quite what the Eagles paid, but would probably be more in the short-term (a 2nd + a future 1st, but no future 2nd and mid-round picks). If they're not bluffing, then the Jets are in a pickle, at which point I would think the chances of them trading Darnold increase for the sole reason of getting the most value out of the 2 assets (QB Darnold + value of #2 vs. QB #2 + value of Darnold). 

I stopped reading at “Tepper may be the guy”… he is one of the smartest relative value investors that has ever lived. Don’t underestimate him.