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Joe Douglas Observations and The Kingpin move he may be planning.


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2 hours ago, maury77 said:

So about this scenario, the teams most likely to draft a QB would be Atlanta at 4 and Philadelphia at 6. 

I'm not sure Atlanta is going QB. Matt Ryan can still play and cutting him before 2024 would result in a significant cap hit: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/matt-ryan-3983/

Falcons could easily draft Pitts. Ryan's targets next year would then be Julio Jones, Pitts and Calvin Ridley (that's a hell of a set of weapons). 

Eagles are picking a QB no matter what they say at 6. If Carolina is going to jump up for Wilson at 2 and the Jets would still want to grab Fields, the Jets would have to trade up to 5.

I don't think Eagles are taking a qb I think they go receiver. 

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Not much time to post but Douglas certainly is interesting so far from what we know so far. The thoughts below are from the moves he has made so far in his time here.  Things we know.  Joe D

Well it's good to know we aren't getting ahead of ourselves and being super hyperbolic about a dude that threw a 2-14 team out on the field last year and whiffed on almost all of his mid-rounders.

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3 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Not much time to post but Douglas certainly is interesting so far from what we know so far. The thoughts below are from the moves he has made so far in his time here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas does not leak. 

First and foremost we are all looking for rumors and the Jets direction right now. With the utmost confidence I can tell you that whatever you are hearing from whatever "Sources" are either :

A) just hypothetical guesses that are simply correct a random % of the time. 

B ) Leaks that Joe Douglas wants you to hear. For Example the CJ Mosley news should just tell you that Joe Douglas wants someone to call him to trade for CJ. which is just super intelligent looking at that contract/age. His opt out last year left us in this situation that he has a very low salary this year before his contract goes back to sucking next year. Look for us to deal him before the draft. 

If you go over the Corey Davis or Carl Lawson signings who projected them? No one. Most of our moves are just air tight until they happen and you really have to give Joe Douglas credit for this. 

Yet all we are hearing is how we how many people "Know" the jets will be taking Zach Wilson. Yet if this was the case shouldn't he have traded Sam Darnold by now? His actions and "The Leaks" are telling two different stories here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas has a pre set value system that he stands by. Likely from his Baltimore Days. 

You all have seen it in Free Agency as well as the draft last year. He sticks to his tiers and rankings and he is picking the next man up. Certainly this could lead to a "Move Up" for the last player in a tier however I don't think you're going to see Joe fall in love with any one player ever. The First time we were on the Clock with Denzel Mims on the Board we traded down. With that being said I just don't see Joe sitting there and saying he "Loves" and must have "Zach Wilson" bc I don't think he is going to say that about anyone. He will simply get value and get guys that fit the system. 

Last years Kingpin move. 

We went into last year needing WR more than anything. It was the biggest WR in a long time they all said. With Denzel Mims on the board and the entire Jets nation slamming the table to draft him he traded pick 48 for picks 59 and 101 from seattle. . Pick 101 was then traded to NE for 125, 129 and a 6th round pick this year. 

So instead of just taking Dezel Mims we ended up with Denzel Mims, Two Fourth rounders and 6th round pick this year. Badass Move. 

 

So Lets Put it all together and make a prediction for this years Kingpin Move Prediction. 

  • The Leaks you hearing about Zach Wilson are by design. 
  • Joe Douglas gets excited about trading for 6th round picks. You really think hes going to pass on a RGIII type return for this pick? 
  • Are these FA moves convincing you Joe Douglas is acting like we will be competing for the playoffs this year? No. This is a long build. 
  • We are trading this pick to wherever that first tier of players ends. With 8 Elite Players, Carolina wanting to overpay for a QB and Watson staying in Houston its looking like we will be trading down to the 8th pick in the next few weeks. 

So who are we taking?

  • Joe Douglas seems extremely comfortable with 1 year deals and the Time to trade Sam Darnold has passed. We are going into the draft with the 8th pick and telling the world Sam Darnold is our QB this year. 
  • The Jets will be absolutely fine actually going into next year with Sam Darnold. Perhaps we even go grab Marcus Mariotta as his backup too just incase. We will all talk about grabbing Patrick Surtain or Kyle Pitts which would be great moves.
  • But whats the Kingpin move? The kind of move Baltimore makes every year?

 

Instead of Taking Zach Wilson at 2 The Jets are going to drop back and grab Two extra first, Two extra seconds and an extra mid round pick from Carolina and grab Justin Fields when he drops to the 8th pick. Same thing like Mim's last year. They will then trade Sam Darnold that night before day 2 and go into next year with Fields and Mariotta at QB. Just like Baltimore every year they will look brilliant. Kingpin. 

Don't think this could happen?

In the 2008 Draft the Ravens had the 8th pick. They traded Down to 26 and scored extra picks and then came up for Flacco. "They didn't just take their guy". 

Look at the 2018 draft. They passed on Lamar Jackson before coming back up in a trade up to take him later on. Again - They didn't just take their guy. 

Ozzie is the guy that Douglas was trained by. We are taking the value all day and not falling in love with anyone. Perhaps we land Fields and are the talk of the town for looking brilliant. But whats the worse case? We end up loaded in the draft the next few years and end up with Darnold, Pitts or Surtain? Forget all other rationale in your head and just focus on Douglas's moves so far and the way Ozzie made his moves and this situation is as clear as day.

Douglas is not falling in love with anyone. So before this becomes a Wilson vs Fields thread or Sam thread - Its not about that. This is about value. We are not getting anyone we individually love. Joe is making that tier of elite players and we are grabbing the last one in that tier. He is not designing this team with an intention to make the playoffs. This is about building a team and culture. Prepare for a long ride. 

 

 

 

 

Good post.

Everything you say makes sense based on JD’s past and that of his mentor.

But, possibly not with the #2 pick . if there’s a guy there who he thinks can change the direction of this franchise around, I’m hoping that his talent- evaluating skills will win out and take the pick rather than trading out.

So that’s the only wildcard. If he doesn’t think that Wilson’s “ the guy”, no doubt he’ll trade down. He shouldn’t pick him if he doesn’t think he’ll be a success in the bigs. And all the other QBs don’t warrant being picked at 2, from the looks of it.

we’ll see

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I don't get the people who are down on Joe, things don't happen instantly. It takes time to build a franchise that consistently challenge for playoffs and eventually superbowls.

I hear complaints about handing out one year deals to players in free agency, these one year deals eventually lead to draft picks trough the compensatory process (the cowboys and ravens both got two 4th round picks this year because of one year deals)

Perhaps we are not used to seeing how a franchise is run properly and how to build a successful roster, it's not all about picking a QB high in the draft and expecting him to turn around years of misery, we have done that it doesn't work.

People like to criticize joes draft last year but fail to see that rookies missed out on mini camps and pre season and may take time to develop, if they zuniga, clark ect are still crap in two years time come back to me.

I will not judge joe until at least year 5 of his contract because by then he will have implemented his plan to make us one of the most respected team in the league and not the laughing stock we have been for 50 years.

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2 hours ago, maury77 said:

So about this scenario, the teams most likely to draft a QB would be Atlanta at 4 and Philadelphia at 6. 

I'm not sure Atlanta is going QB. Matt Ryan can still play and cutting him before 2024 would result in a significant cap hit: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/matt-ryan-3983/

Falcons could easily draft Pitts. Ryan's targets next year would then be Julio Jones, Pitts and Calvin Ridley (that's a hell of a set of weapons). 

Eagles are picking a QB no matter what they say at 6. If Carolina is going to jump up for Wilson at 2 and the Jets would still want to grab Fields, the Jets would have to trade up to 5.

The upcoming pro days for Wilson and Fields will be telling. Best case scenario is after evaluating JD is enamored with both of them equally. On draft night trade back to 5 and gain some draft capital while taking a QB.

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11 minutes ago, long time suffering Jets f said:

The upcoming pro days for Wilson and Fields will be telling. Best case scenario is after evaluating JD is enamored with both of them equally. On draft night trade back to 5 and gain some draft capital while taking a QB.

The most important thing is not at what # he picks, The most important thing is that he gets the pick the right.

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3 hours ago, adobolo2 said:

Great post and Very well tought out and something similar to what I've been thinking (except the fields part)

If sam was been traded he'd be gone by now and not for one second do I believe we are waiting on pro days to make the decision.

The trade up from 23 for a fields/trask/jones is a high possibility that most are not considering.

I agree....

To me why the Bolded part is probably true is the fact that JD has yet to put an ex-Jet in a bad situation.

Every player including Jamal Adams was placed in places where they were a good fit and on teams with a chance to win!  Do we really believe that the Jets are waiting to trade Darnold to a weak team?  I don't think so and I think the Jets would trade Darnold without question,  but it will have to be for a real trade amount that like Jamal "blows" me away type.  And no team is going to trade for Sam based on a maybe at a kings ransom amount.

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3 hours ago, oatmeal said:

This kinda shuts down the entire theory that JD values “more picks“ over the chance to get a franchise QB. He said this from the door so if you’re to believe anything JD has said to date, wouldn’t it be this? 

Agreed but what will he value more? Wilson, Fields? Or Lance, Darnold and a boat load of picks? That's the million dollar question. His spending this year tells me he isn't married to the #2 pick or that he's necessarily gonna putting all of eggs into one basket. Its a hell of a hand he has. None of us know where it's going to go.  The Jets are the great mystery of the draft this year but we should be open to all possible options. 

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4 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Not much time to post but Douglas certainly is interesting so far from what we know so far. The thoughts below are from the moves he has made so far in his time here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas does not leak. 

First and foremost we are all looking for rumors and the Jets direction right now. With the utmost confidence I can tell you that whatever you are hearing from whatever "Sources" are either :

A) just hypothetical guesses that are simply correct a random % of the time. 

B ) Leaks that Joe Douglas wants you to hear. For Example the CJ Mosley news should just tell you that Joe Douglas wants someone to call him to trade for CJ. which is just super intelligent looking at that contract/age. His opt out last year left us in this situation that he has a very low salary this year before his contract goes back to sucking next year. Look for us to deal him before the draft. 

If you go over the Corey Davis or Carl Lawson signings who projected them? No one. Most of our moves are just air tight until they happen and you really have to give Joe Douglas credit for this. 

Yet all we are hearing is how we how many people "Know" the jets will be taking Zach Wilson. Yet if this was the case shouldn't he have traded Sam Darnold by now? His actions and "The Leaks" are telling two different stories here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas has a pre set value system that he stands by. Likely from his Baltimore Days. 

You all have seen it in Free Agency as well as the draft last year. He sticks to his tiers and rankings and he is picking the next man up. Certainly this could lead to a "Move Up" for the last player in a tier however I don't think you're going to see Joe fall in love with any one player ever. The First time we were on the Clock with Denzel Mims on the Board we traded down. With that being said I just don't see Joe sitting there and saying he "Loves" and must have "Zach Wilson" bc I don't think he is going to say that about anyone. He will simply get value and get guys that fit the system. 

Last years Kingpin move. 

We went into last year needing WR more than anything. It was the biggest WR in a long time they all said. With Denzel Mims on the board and the entire Jets nation slamming the table to draft him he traded pick 48 for picks 59 and 101 from seattle. . Pick 101 was then traded to NE for 125, 129 and a 6th round pick this year. 

So instead of just taking Dezel Mims we ended up with Denzel Mims, Two Fourth rounders and 6th round pick this year. Badass Move. 

 

So Lets Put it all together and make a prediction for this years Kingpin Move Prediction. 

  • The Leaks you hearing about Zach Wilson are by design. 
  • Joe Douglas gets excited about trading for 6th round picks. You really think hes going to pass on a RGIII type return for this pick? 
  • Are these FA moves convincing you Joe Douglas is acting like we will be competing for the playoffs this year? No. This is a long build. 
  • We are trading this pick to wherever that first tier of players ends. With 8 Elite Players, Carolina wanting to overpay for a QB and Watson staying in Houston its looking like we will be trading down to the 8th pick in the next few weeks. 

So who are we taking?

  • Joe Douglas seems extremely comfortable with 1 year deals and the Time to trade Sam Darnold has passed. We are going into the draft with the 8th pick and telling the world Sam Darnold is our QB this year. 
  • The Jets will be absolutely fine actually going into next year with Sam Darnold. Perhaps we even go grab Marcus Mariotta as his backup too just incase. We will all talk about grabbing Patrick Surtain or Kyle Pitts which would be great moves.
  • But whats the Kingpin move? The kind of move Baltimore makes every year?

 

Instead of Taking Zach Wilson at 2 The Jets are going to drop back and grab Two extra first, Two extra seconds and an extra mid round pick from Carolina and grab Justin Fields when he drops to the 8th pick. Same thing like Mim's last year. They will then trade Sam Darnold that night before day 2 and go into next year with Fields and Mariotta at QB. Just like Baltimore every year they will look brilliant. Kingpin. 

Don't think this could happen?

In the 2008 Draft the Ravens had the 8th pick. They traded Down to 26 and scored extra picks and then came up for Flacco. "They didn't just take their guy". 

Look at the 2018 draft. They passed on Lamar Jackson before coming back up in a trade up to take him later on. Again - They didn't just take their guy. 

Ozzie is the guy that Douglas was trained by. We are taking the value all day and not falling in love with anyone. Perhaps we land Fields and are the talk of the town for looking brilliant. But whats the worse case? We end up loaded in the draft the next few years and end up with Darnold, Pitts or Surtain? Forget all other rationale in your head and just focus on Douglas's moves so far and the way Ozzie made his moves and this situation is as clear as day.

Douglas is not falling in love with anyone. So before this becomes a Wilson vs Fields thread or Sam thread - Its not about that. This is about value. We are not getting anyone we individually love. Joe is making that tier of elite players and we are grabbing the last one in that tier. He is not designing this team with an intention to make the playoffs. This is about building a team and culture. Prepare for a long ride. 

 

 

 

 

He will picK up three firsts and play Morgan. Book it. 

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9 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Well it's good to know we aren't getting ahead of ourselves and being super hyperbolic about a dude that threw a 2-14 team out on the field last year and whiffed on almost all of his mid-rounders.

Whiffed.  I love the jump-to-itivenesss.  

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5 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

Whiffed.  I love the jump-to-itivenesss.  

Would you put money on Davis, Zuniga, Perrine, or Morgan being anything other than irrelevant?

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ok but the extra picks he got by waiting with mims amount to nothing.

This isnt about whoever winds up with the most picks wins.

If Joe trades the 2 hes an idiot. we need a qb, not 14, 28, 44, 78 and 110 or whatever he is good at.

No need to get cute

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12 hours ago, adobolo2 said:

Fields doesn't have to last till 8th, joe can always trade back up to get who ever he thinks is his man which could be fields and come out with a profit of draft picks

It would be the boldest move of a gm I can think of but who knows what joe is thinking.

This is actually what happened in both the Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson moves for Balitmore. They traded down then moved up when a "opportunistic" situation presented itself. 

 

Side Note - The Forum is 100x better with the long post condensed until clicked. It was super hard to read long post on a phone the old way. Big improvement. 

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14 hours ago, oatmeal said:

This kinda shuts down the entire theory that JD values “more picks“ over the chance to get a franchise QB. He said this from the door so if you’re to believe anything JD has said to date, wouldn’t it be this? 

 

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13 hours ago, maury77 said:

I know they came out in defense of Hurts the other day, but do you really buy them passing on a QB at 6? I don't, but I'm not a fan of Hurts so that may be tainting my analysis. 

I'm not a Hurts guy either. There are some rumors of the eagles trading for Foles. Lets hope that happens. 

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I’m not holding any credence on the notion that “since JD was mentored by Ozzie = JD can operate that way” …. I’ve lost count of how many coaches have spun out of successful organizations and completely flopped and I’m sure it’s no different in management. So far the only thing he did right was for himself in booking himself 6 guaranteed years with the dumbest, wealthiest set of brother owners in the game. 

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14 hours ago, adobolo2 said:

Great post and Very well tought out and something similar to what I've been thinking (except the fields part)

If sam was been traded he'd be gone by now and not for one second do I believe we are waiting on pro days to make the decision.

The trade up from 23 for a fields/trask/jones is a high possibility that most are not considering.

This kind is the whole point of the thread. 

You look at Baltimores past moves. You look at what Douglas has done. You strip away all the noise and what do you see ? 

The Jets are likely heading into the Draft with Sam Darnold on a 1 year deal. People could make their own assumptions on what that means. In my mind that means we will be trading down with the flexibility of taking a QB if the situation presents itself OR whatever Elite player falls. But to each their own. 

 

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Just now, Samtorobby47 said:

Lol If his move is to trade to 8 and wait for Fields to fall to his lap..oh boy. 
 

He’s gonna get caught with his pants down and Morgan at starting QB. 

Or trade there and start Morgan intentionally. 

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12 hours ago, varjet said:

Lawrence, Fields and Wilson together will go somewhere between picks 3-6.  

Mac Jones will go higher than we think.

If we were to trade down and Mac Jones or Lance go before our pick were literally landing Pitts at 8 which would be brilliant. 

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14 hours ago, win4ever said:

This is actually a very interesting theory, especially because having Darnold and leaking their love affair for him provides them an easy chance to trade down.  A team like the Panthers (as you mentioned) could be the target because that team is fully set up to be a vertical passing team, as both Moore and Anderson can be vertical threats.  Add a speed guy in the draft, and that's a dangerous offense.  

The big issue would be the value of the trade, because I don't think Fields makes it to 8.  I think Atlanta pounces on him, or Denver trades up from 9.  So the only way this would work is:

1) They legitimately feel Darnold at QB is perfectly fine

2) They have Wilson/Fields/Lance/Jones and whoever else ranked in similar areas.  

Although, this is pretty interesting, makes me wonder about their options.  Draft can't get here fast enough

The Panthers Link is just too easy. Its been leaked everywhere that they want to overpay for a Franchise QB this offseason. 

Atlanta converted Matt Ryan's contract to SB which ensures he will be there atleast 2 years. I can't see them grabbing a QB this year at 4 and having him sit 2 years behind Ryan. As Maury mentioned perhaps they love Pitts. Perhaps they move down for defense for another team that wants a QB. 4 certainly is the first spot to worry about Fields going. 

Your Points

They Feel Darnold is Fine. 

If Darnold was going to be traded before Draft Day it would have happened already. Chicago was in major cap trouble and had to sign Dalton for twice the amount of Sam's contract. Perhaps they could have kept Fuller with that deal. Washington signed Fitz. If you wanted to trade Sam he would have been moved before FA. Chances are he is here until Draft Day.

They rank the QB's similarly.  

I have seen no indication that Douglas has fallen in love with any one player in his time here. If he loved Wilson or Fields then Darnold would be gone already. Each day that passes that Darnold is still on the team the chances of a trade down increase. The day that the Rams traded up for Goff is only a few weeks away. We have passed the time to trade for starting QB - We are entering draft season. 

Our next clue to look for is if the Panthers GM and Owner etc are at Wilson's Pro Day. The Jets trading down could happen a few weeks from now. A point I wanted to make here is that even if the Jets were to trade down it doesn't mean we are not taking a QB. 

All it means is Sam + value of moving down is > then Wilson/Fields. But once we are at the 8th pick for example the decision then becomes stick there for Pitts/Surtain + Sam or Trade Up for Fields a few spots and trade Sam later that night for whatever you could get which in itself should pay for the Fields trade up. 

 

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Lol you guys and the man behind the curtain narrative is cute but has totally shown to be wrong. 2 seasons under JD and the team Has gotten worse, not better. 
 

Wins and losses support that 

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1 hour ago, Lizard King said:

Or trade there and start Morgan intentionally. 

Anyone know if Morgan played in a Shanahan type system in college or has the attributes to succeed in said system? 
It would be short sighted of JD to draft Morgan thinking he fit Gase system. I hope he already envisioned Gase being let go and a Shanahan system coach being hired. Also was Zuninga projected as a 4-3 edge or 3-4 DL coming out of college? ‘20 draft may be a waste due to coaching/system change.

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14 hours ago, SAR I said:

Here comes the Pin King.  
— The Beatles 

I’ll always be the king of pin. 
— The Police

SAR I

It seems since his boy Gaze is gone, SORE I has completely lost his marbles.

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2 minutes ago, BettyBoop said:

It seems since his boy Gaze is gone, SORE I has completely lost his marbles.

He's in recovery and healing slowly give the guy a break. 

He's a diehard dedicated NY Jets fan like the rest of us. 

Pray for @SAR I

joewilly12

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