Joe Douglas Observations and The Kingpin move he may be planning.

[addage]

I think JD is in read and react mode.  He has done most of his evaluations but has no idea what other teams are going to do.

Where are we right now?  We're reading headlines from a media all to happy to pump out "sensational" stories.  And we have a bunch of GM's feeding them with misinformation and disinformation.  Even though the draft is always a crap shoot, we know less about the current crop of players because of the Covid restrictions on colleges' seasons and on the NFL pre-draft process.

One thing we do know about JD is that he respects value.  He has his view of a player and cap value.  If he can match those things, he is a buyer.  If he can't, he walks away.  Short term, it's frustrating; long term it might work.

So now we wait for the draft.  JD may be locked in on Wilson.  Or he may like Wilson but not think he's worth the #2 pick.  He might even think Wilson will be  a bust.  He will listen to offers either way.  If there is an offer that he likes, he'll take it.

But I don't think it's a plan.  I think he is waiting for the market to come to him.  It is what he did with Jamal.

[Big_Slick]

18 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

You put a lot of thought into this, so I’m not doing to disparage your theory. But I don’t see it. Here’s why:

That’s a quote from Douglas’s introductory press conference. He has repeated it often since then. He sees the QB as the keystone to the whole team. He learned under Ozzie Newsome, who drafted Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson in the first round, and in the latter case traded up to do so. 

Douglas is not going to stockpile picks for the sake of stockpiling picks. If he’s sees an opportunity to get a franchise QB, he’s going to take it. I have no doubts about that. 

The only problem is that there is only one FQB in this draft and TL will be the #1 OA pick. That's why he tries to trade down, which is very easy to say but much much harder to accomplish without being on the losing end of the trade and I don't see that happening.

Going back to his statement on team-building philosophy from his introductory press conference, "After that (QB being most important), offensive and defensive lines. JD: "Football is a game of wills."

Failing a trade down I believe that Sewell will be the Jets pick at #2 OA.

[GreenReaper]

I'm fine with resetting the QB position with whoever JD-Saleh want to take.  An it's possible this is what they intend to do at #2. 

Yet...in my heart of hearts, I can also see them trading down to #8 spot for a huge haul of picks.  Jets could end up with 2021 2nd and 3rd round picks.  A 2022 1st and 2nd.  And a 2023 1st rounder.  A boatload of picks indeed!  

Does he take a Trey Lance at #8 if he's still there?  Why not!  I think they could do this.  But at the same time you would have to be willing to roll with Darnold...if a Lance or Fields isn't there.   IMO...I don't see the other QBs as viable candidates to be drafted.

I would expect JD-Saleh would be in agreement on whatever move is decided. 

If a trade down happens.  It would mean they agree to live with a worse case scenario of Darnold being a bridge QB.  If he doesn't move the W-L needle enough this upcoming season.  And probably eat the 5th year option too.  As it being the cost you have to accept...if you want to acquire more picks and fast track the rebuild, by stock piling talent throughout the 53 man roster.  Putting the team just a QB away from being a perennial playoff contender for the Supe.  

Look...JD has three shiny Supe rings...compliments from three game managing QBs named Trent Dilfer, Joe Flacco, and Nick Foles.  Saleh and  LaFleur almost got one with Jimmy Garoppolo.   They all know it can be done...with less then a top 10 FQB...if you have a loaded team with enough offensive and defensive players that can dominate.   And of course a HC-CS that knows how to utilize them. 

And...there's no guarantee a team is going to multiple Supes simply because you have a FQB.  Brees only been there once.  So far Rodgers...the consensus best QB until Mahomes came along...only one appearance so far.  Rivers never got there...probably thanks to Schotty Sr.  Dan Marino got there in his 2nd year, and never got back again!  You need a quality team behind you and probably some good fortune along the way...get there multiple times.  It ain't a given that Mahomes gets back to the Supe a third year in a row.  Or Rodgers gets to a third NFCCG either.  With Brady...you never say never.       

So...if they don't stay at #2...or have a QB that they like to take at #8.  They could take as value picks Kyle Pitts (my choice); Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith as receiver weapons.  Possibly Patrick Surtain or Caleb Farley to solidify CB. 

At #23...if they don't trade back for even more picks...Rashon Slater or Vera-Tucker for IOL.   

Again...I'd be fine with resetting the QB position. 

But...

JD-Saleh-LaFleur-Ulbrich may want to use this first year of collaboration to utilize this opportunity they have...sitting in the catbird seat at #2.  For a trade down...and a king's ransom of premium picks. To jump start the rebuild and fill massive holes at starting positions.  For depth and future starters...all on cheap rookie contracts.  And let Darnold run the team an try to solidify himself as QB NYJ.  And if he fails...live with him for that 1-2 years. And secure either via draft-trade-FA...the QB that can consistently take a talent loaded team to the playoffs.  And give the Jets a chance at the Supe. 

 What JD is doing in FA doesn't look to me like an aggressive attempt to stack as much talent on the team as possible.  For a young rookie QB to operate behind and have success next year.  It looks more like a slow methodical rebuild with only value signings in FA.  And I expect JD to be very aggressive in the draft...with possibly multiple trade downs...as the main method for the rebuild of this roster.

Then go for a QB if Darnold fails...as many here think he will.  

Like it or not...I don't think there's a easy way out for ending the NYJ losing miseries.  

I'm sure JD...in collaboration with Saleh-CS...have a plan.  I don't know if anybody knows what it is for sure.  We may not know until the day of the draft.

Can't wait!

   

 

[Shockwave]

8 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

Yet...in my heart of hearts, I can also see them trading down to #8 spot for a huge haul of picks.  Jets could end up with 2021 2nd and 3rd round picks.  A 2022 1st and 2nd.  And a 2023 1st rounder.  A boatload of picks indeed!  

Every Day that Sam Darnold is on this team the chances of this happening get higher and higher. 

If Sam is on this team in 2 weeks expect a trade down announced any day. 

[FidelioJet]

Sam will be traded and the Jets will take Wilson at #2.

 

[FidelioJet]

19 hours ago, Big_Slick said:

The only problem is that there is only one FQB in this draft and TL will be the #1 OA pick. That's why he tries to trade down, which is very easy to say but much much harder to accomplish without being on the losing end of the trade and I don't see that happening.

Going back to his statement on team-building philosophy from his introductory press conference, "After that (QB being most important), offensive and defensive lines. JD: "Football is a game of wills."

Failing a trade down I believe that Sewell will be the Jets pick at #2 OA.

Wouldn't you think, if he believes QB as the most important position, and the Jets not having one means he's going to take a QB?

Not sure how you come to - he's taking another LT when we already have a good one.

[Shockwave]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Sam will be traded and the Jets will take Wilson at #2.

 

Fun Fact: 

Joe Douglas has been in NFL Front Offices for over 20 years now. He has never been part of any Franchise that just stay put and selected a QB in the First Round. 

Another Fun Fact: 

Joe Douglas has won Superbowls with Trent Dilfer, and Nick Foles as QB. 

Saleh went to a Superbowl with Jimmy G. With the 2nd pick SF went Bosa - Not a QB. 

 

Last Fact: 

Douglas watched both his former team take QB's in the 2nd spot (Wentz and Tribisky that got people fired and are no longer on their respective teams. we draft 2nd. 

I don't hate Wilson and it's not an anti Wilson thread in anyway. But when you look at JD's history(Saleh too), remove the noise and realize Sam Darnold is still on this team - It all points to a trade down. 

 

 

 

 

 

[FidelioJet]

21 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Fun Fact: 

Joe Douglas has been in NFL Front Offices for over 20 years now. He has never been part of any Franchise that just stay put and selected a QB in the First Round. 

Another Fun Fact: 

Joe Douglas has won Superbowls with Trent Dilfer, and Nick Foles as QB. 

Saleh went to a Superbowl with Jimmy G. With the 2nd pick SF went Bosa - Not a QB. 

 

Last Fact: 

Douglas watched both his former team take QB's in the 2nd spot (Wentz and Tribisky that got people fired and are no longer on their respective teams. we draft 2nd. 

I don't hate Wilson and it's not an anti Wilson thread in anyway. But when you look at JD's history(Saleh too), remove the noise and realize Sam Darnold is still on this team - It all points to a trade down. 

 

 

 

 

 

It really isn't worth debating anyway, at least for me, what I think JD will do.  

All of your fun facts prove nothing.  Every situation is different. 

The Eagles traded up to 2 to get Wentz, are you suggesting, if the Jet were sitting at 6 or 8, then they would be more likely to trade up to get Wilson? But because they're sitting at 2 they won't take him?

I'll say it for the last time, right here and right now - in reference to what JD is going to do.  

The Jets will trade Sam Darnold and the Jets will draft Zach Wilson with the number two pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Going forward I will only give my opinion on what I WANT them to do.  No more fighting over guessing what JD will do.

[slats]

21 hours ago, Big_Slick said:

The only problem is that there is only one FQB in this draft and TL will be the #1 OA pick. That's why he tries to trade down, which is very easy to say but much much harder to accomplish without being on the losing end of the trade and I don't see that happening.

Going back to his statement on team-building philosophy from his introductory press conference, "After that (QB being most important), offensive and defensive lines. JD: "Football is a game of wills."

Failing a trade down I believe that Sewell will be the Jets pick at #2 OA.

The only way he's on the losing end of the trade is if he squanders the picks he gets and the guy who went #2 overall is a superstar. He's going to have zero trouble moving that pick for more than what the draft pick trade charts say its worth if that's what he chooses to do. Teams move up for QBs every year, and this year there's a ton of hype around Wilson. Either the Jets take him at #2 or somebody else does. They will not draft Sewell. 

[Peace Frog]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Sam will be traded and the Jets will take Wilson at #2.

 

I'm a Sam fan but I've moved on and this is what I want.  

I want to see Zach throwing the ball around the field.

[Big_Slick]

6 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Wouldn't you think, if he believes QB as the most important position, and the Jets not having one means he's going to take a QB?

Not sure how you come to - he's taking another LT when we already have a good one.

Yes. JD did say that QB is the most important position. But, that doesn't mean you draft a QB that's not; 

#1 - worth the #2 OA pick

#2 - has a greater than 50 % chance of busting

#3 - take Wilson who has only had one good year playing against low level college teams

#4 - doesn't improve the QB situation we're in now. Yes - I can hear the Sam is terrible crowd wincing right now but the fact remains that running it back with Sam, with good coaching, a system that fits his skill set and surrounded by much improved talent is the smart move.

#5 - If Sam craps the bed we can draft or trade for a QB next season and the available QB's will be every bit as good and most likely much better prospects than Wilson or Fields.

Not taking a QB at #2 OA means we can take Sewell, who's the second best player in the draft. Right or left tackle doesn't matter. Teams need both and Sewell fits the style of offensive the Jets are expected to run with the new coaching staff.

[FidelioJet]

6 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

Yes. JD did say that QB is the most important position. But, that doesn't mean you draft a QB that's not; 

#1 - worth the #2 OA pick

#2 - has a greater than 50 % chance of busting

#3 - take Wilson who has only had one good year playing against low level college teams

#4 - doesn't improve the QB situation we're in now. Yes - I can hear the Sam is terrible crowd wincing right now but the fact remains that running it back with Sam, with good coaching, a system that fits his skill set and surrounded by much improved talent is the smart move.

#5 - If Sam craps the bed we can draft or trade for a QB next season and the available QB's will be every bit as good and most likely much better prospects than Wilson or Fields.

Not taking a QB at #2 OA means we can take Sewell, who's the second best player in the draft. Right or left tackle doesn't matter. Teams need both and Sewell fits the style of offensive the Jets are expected to run with the new coaching staff.

All of that's well and good...but the only thing you're saying is you don't like Zach Wilson. 

It really has NOTHING to do with JD, anything he said or anything else for that matter.. 

All of that writing and all of those points comes down to the fact this...because.you don't like Zach Wilson, JD can't possibly like Zach Wilson.

 

 

[Big_Slick]

5 hours ago, slats said:

The only way he's on the losing end of the trade is if he squanders the picks he gets and the guy who went #2 overall is a superstar. He's going to have zero trouble moving that pick for more than what the draft pick trade charts say its worth if that's what he chooses to do. Teams move up for QBs every year, and this year there's a ton of hype around Wilson. Either the Jets take him at #2 or somebody else does. They will not draft Sewell. 

I think JD is going to want more than a swap of #1's, a 2nd this year and a 1st next year. I'm hoping for a trade down and having JD use a *massive* haul to hasten the rebuild. At this point I trust whatever decision JD makes.

It's also possible that the #2 OL pick who turns into a superstar is Sewell. Not in the sense of a Watson or Russel Wilson type superstar but a HOF tackle like Orlando Pace (and I'll never forgive Parcells for trading down and getting James Farrior instead of taking the zero chance of a bust HOF OT).

[Big_Slick]

3 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

All of that's well and good...but the only thing you're saying is you don't like Zach Wilson. 

It really has NOTHING to do with JD, anything he said or anything else for that matter.. 

All of that writing and all of those points comes down to the fact this...because.you don't like Zach Wilson, JD can't possibly like Zach Wilson.

 

 

Hey, it's all good. It's not that I don't like Zack, it's just that he hasn't proven anything against top level competition. I don't feel like he's worth the gamble a #2 OA. I'd rate him as a low 1st round prospect and that's based solely on the talent level he's played against and his one year of success.

If we didn't blow the #1 OA pick I'd be all in on taking TL and trading Sam.

[Sperm Edwards]

On 3/20/2021 at 5:26 PM, Shockwave said:

Not much time to post but Douglas certainly is interesting so far from what we know so far. The thoughts below are from the moves he has made so far in his time here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas does not leak. 

First and foremost we are all looking for rumors and the Jets direction right now. With the utmost confidence I can tell you that whatever you are hearing from whatever "Sources" are either :

A) just hypothetical guesses that are simply correct a random % of the time. 

B ) Leaks that Joe Douglas wants you to hear. For Example the CJ Mosley news should just tell you that Joe Douglas wants someone to call him to trade for CJ. which is just super intelligent looking at that contract/age. His opt out last year left us in this situation that he has a very low salary this year before his contract goes back to sucking next year. Look for us to deal him before the draft. 

If you go over the Corey Davis or Carl Lawson signings who projected them? No one. Most of our moves are just air tight until they happen and you really have to give Joe Douglas credit for this. 

Yet all we are hearing is how we how many people "Know" the jets will be taking Zach Wilson. Yet if this was the case shouldn't he have traded Sam Darnold by now? His actions and "The Leaks" are telling two different stories here. 

Things we know. 

Joe Douglas has a pre set value system that he stands by. Likely from his Baltimore Days. 

You all have seen it in Free Agency as well as the draft last year. He sticks to his tiers and rankings and he is picking the next man up. Certainly this could lead to a "Move Up" for the last player in a tier however I don't think you're going to see Joe fall in love with any one player ever. The First time we were on the Clock with Denzel Mims on the Board we traded down. With that being said I just don't see Joe sitting there and saying he "Loves" and must have "Zach Wilson" bc I don't think he is going to say that about anyone. He will simply get value and get guys that fit the system. 

Last years Kingpin move. 

We went into last year needing WR more than anything. It was the biggest WR in a long time they all said. With Denzel Mims on the board and the entire Jets nation slamming the table to draft him he traded pick 48 for picks 59 and 101 from seattle. . Pick 101 was then traded to NE for 125, 129 and a 6th round pick this year. 

So instead of just taking Dezel Mims we ended up with Denzel Mims, Two Fourth rounders and 6th round pick this year. Badass Move. 

 

So Lets Put it all together and make a prediction for this years Kingpin Move Prediction. 

• The Leaks you hearing about Zach Wilson are by design. 
• Joe Douglas gets excited about trading for 6th round picks. You really think hes going to pass on a RGIII type return for this pick? 
• Are these FA moves convincing you Joe Douglas is acting like we will be competing for the playoffs this year? No. This is a long build. 
• We are trading this pick to wherever that first tier of players ends. With 8 Elite Players, Carolina wanting to overpay for a QB and Watson staying in Houston its looking like we will be trading down to the 8th pick in the next few weeks. 

So who are we taking?

• Joe Douglas seems extremely comfortable with 1 year deals and the Time to trade Sam Darnold has passed. We are going into the draft with the 8th pick and telling the world Sam Darnold is our QB this year. 
• The Jets will be absolutely fine actually going into next year with Sam Darnold. Perhaps we even go grab Marcus Mariotta as his backup too just incase. We will all talk about grabbing Patrick Surtain or Kyle Pitts which would be great moves.
• But whats the Kingpin move? The kind of move Baltimore makes every year?

 

Instead of Taking Zach Wilson at 2 The Jets are going to drop back and grab Two extra first, Two extra seconds and an extra mid round pick from Carolina and grab Justin Fields when he drops to the 8th pick. Same thing like Mim's last year. They will then trade Sam Darnold that night before day 2 and go into next year with Fields and Mariotta at QB. Just like Baltimore every year they will look brilliant. Kingpin. 

Don't think this could happen?

In the 2008 Draft the Ravens had the 8th pick. They traded Down to 26 and scored extra picks and then came up for Flacco. "They didn't just take their guy". 

Look at the 2018 draft. They passed on Lamar Jackson before coming back up in a trade up to take him later on. Again - They didn't just take their guy. 

Ozzie is the guy that Douglas was trained by. We are taking the value all day and not falling in love with anyone. Perhaps we land Fields and are the talk of the town for looking brilliant. But whats the worse case? We end up loaded in the draft the next few years and end up with Darnold, Pitts or Surtain? Forget all other rationale in your head and just focus on Douglas's moves so far and the way Ozzie made his moves and this situation is as clear as day.

Douglas is not falling in love with anyone. So before this becomes a Wilson vs Fields thread or Sam thread - Its not about that. This is about value. We are not getting anyone we individually love. Joe is making that tier of elite players and we are grabbing the last one in that tier. He is not designing this team with an intention to make the playoffs. This is about building a team and culture. Prepare for a long ride. 

 

 

 

 

Trading down for Mims gets way too much credit. Let's see him turn into a reliable starter before jerking off Douglas here (plus they passed on Claypool). The reality is that trade down netted Mims and...two wasted roster spots so far. He traded down with his extra pick so Mims turned into Mims + Morgan + Clark. Or, Mims plus two guys who never made the active gameday roster once even as backup depth, on a team that barely had maybe 5 decent starters on it. 

Ditto the trade-down for Flacco when Baltimore did it, I might add.

The net results of those trades down was nothing. I'm sure that history is also not lost on Douglas. Or I hope.

If he's got 8 players ranked about evenly (factoring in positional need & value), then trading down makes sense. Meanwhile he also did not trade down from #11 even though he could have gotten much more for that pick. I think you're squeezing acts into fitting into making a greater point about a general philosophy. It's likely most teams operate this same way; the difference is more in how good they are at grading players than an idea of what to do with the grades once they're made.

Also in neither of those situations - 2008 and 2020 - were those teams sitting on 4 first round picks in the upcoming 2 seasons (with #33 overall and an extra 3rd and an extra 5th this year), so trade-downs would have been a much greater proportional increase on draft capital for the 2020 Jets and 2008 Ravens than the 2021 Jets. 

The part you get right IMO is no one really knows what he's going to do.

Honestly I don't think he knows what he's going to do either, before Wilson's pro day. He & Saleh & LaFleur may get over-enamored with him. They may shrug their shoulders at him while someone else gets smitten and oh-so-badly wants our #2 overall pick. Eye of the beholder & all that.

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The part you get right IMO is no one really knows what he's going to do.

Honestly I don't think he knows what he's going to do either, before Wilson's pro day. He & Saleh & LaFleur may get over-enamored with him. They may shrug their shoulders at him while someone else gets smitten and oh-so-badly wants our #2 overall pick. Eye of the beholder & all that.

This is the salient point to me. Nobody knows what Douglas will do because it's not clear that he even knows what the hell he's going to do. A lot can still change before the draft. 

[SouthernJet]

or they might just keep peddling the pick down to teams wanting the top5 QBs..

trade to teams in order so we always have the pick needed to get next of the 5 QBs. trade w/atlanta, phi, det, carolina, denver, sf..........

keep moving pick for extra capital,,worst we end up with is 12th pick (unless at #12 only a few teams traded with us and a team from lower wants to vove up)..we will accumulated a bonanza of picks,,it couldnt have worked out better if jets strategy was accumulate picks..

 

Jets could get 2021 or may puch for out year picks as well so in case Darnold flops they have enpugh draft capital to put together a package in 2022 for QB Sam Darnold, who is better than Darnold or Wilson.

[CanadaSteve]

On 3/20/2021 at 5:38 PM, jeremy2020 said:

No one gets attributed more success than Joe Douglas

You're right...we should just sh++T on him like good SOJ fans.  That is FAR more exciting than talking about it from a positive perspective.

[Shockwave]

While I’m making predictions:

The Jets FA moves so far totally align with:

Keeping Sam. Potential QB depending who falls. 

Drafting Pitts. (Do we have any TE's signed for next year?)

Drafting Multiple Olineman. Slater perhaps early and mid round interior guys. (Last years JAG's are cuts after this year + no pickups this year outside of mullet)

Drafting CB High. Farley is going to totally be on our radar in round 2 now. We love hurt guys. (NO CB Signed)

Midround Slot and RB. (Crowder leaving)

Edge @23. (Contract wise were going to need someone cheap on that line)
 

A Perfect Start:

Take Pitts/Fields at 8. Maybe Slater if we move again. 

Take Jaelen Phillips at 23. 

Take Caleb Farley with 2.2. 

Take  _________ with 2.8. 

 

 

[greengeek]

Anyone know if Morgan played in a Shanahan type system in college or has the attributes to succeed in said system? 
It would be short sighted of JD to draft Morgan thinking he fit Gase system. I hope he already envisioned Gase being let go and a Shanahan system coach being hired. Also was Zuninga projected as a 4-3 edge or 3-4 DL coming out of college? ‘20 draft may be a waste due to coaching/system change.

Am I incorrect in stating that the only QB who fit the Gase system was Peyton (and that it wasn’t the system).

[jeremy2020]

5 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

You're right...we should just sh++T on him like good SOJ fans.  That is FAR more exciting than talking about it from a positive perspective.

I'm glad you have a strawman to make you feel better, but I didn't say that. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

Taking pitts is a terrible idea. So is getting rid of sam

[slats]

16 hours ago, Big_Slick said:

I think JD is going to want more than a swap of #1's, a 2nd this year and a 1st next year. I'm hoping for a trade down and having JD use a *massive* haul to hasten the rebuild. At this point I trust whatever decision JD makes.

It's also possible that the #2 OL pick who turns into a superstar is Sewell. Not in the sense of a Watson or Russel Wilson type superstar but a HOF tackle like Orlando Pace (and I'll never forgive Parcells for trading down and getting James Farrior instead of taking the zero chance of a bust HOF OT).

I really appreciate @football guy's posts, but I remain of the impression that the #2 pick could command much more than that. I don't believe that there are many teams out there that might have equal grades on more than two or three of these QBs. In fact, I'm certain that there are teams that have fallen in love with specific QBs - because they always do. 

All it would take is one in love, especially with Wilson, to get them to pay the price to move up. And I get that Joe Douglas has not been the perfect GM so far, but his trades have generally been very good. Getting two first rounders for Jamal Adams seeming more incredible today than it did at the time. If he trades the pick, he'll do much better than a second and future first. 

But also, I suspect that they're just taking a QB there. It's going to be a QB going #2 overall, it's just a matter of who's taking him. 

[LIJetsFan]

Joe Douglas Creating Long-Term Window for Success in Free Agency

By: Mason Smoller | March 23, 2021

If there is one thing New York Jets fans have learned over the past decade, it is that wins cannot be bought in free agency. Past general managers for gang green have tried and failed, most recently being Mike Maccagnan. He dealt out massive contracts to players such as Trumaine Johnson in order to fill out needs created by poor drafting. Maccagnan tried to change the way the game is won, except the fact of the matter is that free agency is for building around what is accomplished in the NFL Draft. Luckily, currently General Manager Joe Douglas is aware of this fact, and is rebuilding the organization the right way.

Now in his second full off-season with the team, Douglas finally has a chance to execute his true vision. He has emphasized the importance of piecing the team together in the draft and is sticking to it. As NFL teams stand pat or spend like crazy in a COVID-19 free agency frenzy, Douglas has played his cards his way. And it is quietly creating a long-term window for the Jets to regularly win football games.

Joe Douglas Creating A Sustainable Winner

Prioritizing Youth

From the moment free agency started, it appeared there would be two kinds of teams – the aggressive and the conservative. The New England Patriots went on a spending spree to reload and chase after the Buffalo Bills. At the same time, the New Orleans Saints have been scrambling to create cap space in order to remain in contention post-Drew Brees.

Meanwhile, Douglas has been waiting for the right time to strike. Currently, the Jets have signed four players to multi-year deals. Two came to an agreement within hours of the tampering period, in receiver Corey Davis and pass rusher Carl Lawson. Both would go on to sign three-year deals with the team. Additionally, the Jets signed defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins to a two-year deal and defensive back Justin Hardee to a three-year deal.

While none of them are the splashy signings fans were demanding prior to free agency starting, what they do bring is high upside. Davis is a former fifth overall pick and is only 26-years-old as he comes off of a career-year in 2020. He also has seen his best play come from a play-action offense, which will be run often under offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. As for Lawson and Rankins, both are young, high-upside defensive lineman who will have a field day rushing the passer alongside Quinnen Williams. Even Hardee, who is primarily a special teams player, is one of the best gunners in the game.

No, these are not the splashy signings often seen from the Jets in free agency. They are smart signings that open a window for their own development, but for the Jets to become a competitive football team.

Maintaining Flexibility

One of Joe Douglas’ biggest values in a player is their versatility and maintaining that flexibility to move them around. The same can be said about his approach to free agency when it comes to contracts. Last off-season, he brought in many players on one-year deals not only to create more competition on the field but to have cap flexibility moving forward. And he is back at it again.

Outside of high-upside, young signings in the four previously mentioned, all additions have been one-year deals. To this point, Douglas has added wide receiver Keelan Cole, tight end Tyler Kroft, offensive lineman Dan Feeney, linebacker Jarrad Davis, and safety LaMarcus Joyner through the 2021 season. It is also worth noting that Joyner is the only player age 30 or above.

Again, none of these signings will guarantee more wins. They will be rotational or depth pieces that create a winning culture. Pieces that will complement those who are selected in the draft to be the future of the franchise. Speaking of which…

All Eyes on the Draft

All the talk of New York’s off-season has been and will continue to be what happens at quarterback. Do the Jets trade Sam Darnold and pick his replacement second overall? Do they give him one more shot at starting and trade down from second overall? Can the Jets swing a trade for Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson?

Well, nobody knows the answer to these questions, with the exception of maybe Joe Douglas. Since coming to New York during the Adam Gase mayhem, it has seemed as if he has always had a plan. One that was to form a winning roster the right way he learned from his time with the Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, and Baltimore Ravens – through the draft.

The Jets have five picks within the first 100 in the 2021 NFL Draft, highlighted by the second overall pick. With this capital, Douglas is going to draft talent and have new head coach Robert Saleh develop his players. Something that no general manager-head coach tandem for the Jets has done successfully for years.

When the 2021 NFL off-season is over, chances are the Jets are not going to be a playoff team. Rather, a young, scrappy team that plays their heart out and competes week in and week out. And because of the flexibility, Douglas is creating, the Jets are creating a long-term window for success based on developing through the draft.

[FidelioJet]

The trade down "haul of pick" fallacy.

You guy way over-rate the value of trading down.  Forget about losing out on the player, just the value in general...

Let's take a look...

1) You lose the #2 pick you get for Darnold

2) Next year you're going to have to take a QB anyway.  So either you're bad enough to take a QB high (which you're in the same position again - you're using one of those picks you got for trading down on a QB - which is a wash) , and half of you guys will be screaming to trade down - so we have another sh*tty year) or you have to trade up to get a guy you like.  By trading down now you may very well end up with a lesser QB prospect and don't net any additional picks....

Just take the QB when you're in a position to take one you like.

 

 

[Jetsfan666]

agree what pretty every thing u said no way fields last to 8 

[Shockwave]

14 minutes ago, slats said:

I really appreciate @football guy's posts, but I remain of the impression that the #2 pick could command much more than that. I don't believe that there are many teams out there that might have equal grades on more than two or three of these QBs. In fact, I'm certain that there are teams that have fallen in love with specific QBs - because they always do. 

All it would take is one in love, especially with Wilson, to get them to pay the price to move up. And I get that Joe Douglas has not been the perfect GM so far, but his trades have generally been very good. Getting two first rounders for Jamal Adams seeming more incredible today than it did at the time. If he trades the pick, he'll do much better than a second and future first. 

But also, I suspect that they're just taking a QB there. It's going to be a QB going #2 overall, it's just a matter of who's taking him. 

 

Just looked back at the Wentz trade. If I am Carolina this is exactly what I want to pay as it seems like a bargain. 

 

Quote

Second trade: Eagles and Browns

• Eagles receive: 2016 No. 2 overall pick
• Browns receive: 2016 No. 8 overall pick, 2016 third-round pick, 2016 fourth-round pick, 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick

It would totally suck not getting the Panthers 2nd round pick this year. As the Jets have made it clear they want a "High" 2 for Sam paired together with many draft people saying the grade of players of 25-45 or so are similar this may be a sticking point in trade talks for both teams. 

I guess my question to other fans is would they be happy getting the exact same deal as the Browns got in 2016? 

Personally with our gaping holes everywhere I would be unhappy with any trade that doesn't include the Panthers 2 this year and first next year. 

 

 

[slats]

7 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

 

Just looked back at the Wentz trade. If I am Carolina this is exactly what I want to pay as it seems like a bargain. 

 

It would totally suck not getting the Panthers 2nd round pick this year. As the Jets have made it clear they want a "High" 2 for Sam paired together with many draft people saying the grade of players of 25-45 or so are similar this may be a sticking point in trade talks for both teams. 

I guess my question to other fans is would they be happy getting the exact same deal as the Browns got in 2016? 

Personally with our gaping holes everywhere I would be unhappy with any trade that doesn't include the Panthers 2 this year and first next year. 

 

 

I think they'd have to get either a second round pick this year or a starting caliber player at a position of need as part of the deal instead of that fourth rounder. If the only extras he was being offered for this year were 3rd & 4th round picks, I think JD turns that offer down. He would need to be in position to add at least two starters as a part of any trade down. 

I suspect we're gonna find out what Darnold is worth in a trade, though, not the #2 pick. 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

I think they'd have to get either a second round pick this year or a starting caliber player at a position of need as part of the deal instead of that fourth rounder. If the only extras he was being offered for this year were 3rd & 4th round picks, I think JD turns that offer down. He would need to be in position to add at least two starters as a part of any trade down. 

I suspect we're gonna find out what Darnold is worth in a trade, though, not the #2 pick. 

how pissed would this board be if the jets traded a good 2nd round pick for darnold?  that's how other teams see it.  i think douglas can get a 3rd this year and a conditional next year, that's probably the best package.  some teams that would trade for him wouldn't even consider him a starter this season.  

increasingly it seems that the jets probably won't get that much for darnold, and i suspect other teams won't fork over the farm to move up to 2, so the jets will ultimately have to decide how much they like wilson and this pro day should hopefully crystalize their plans.  

[adobolo2]

13 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

The trade down "haul of pick" fallacy.

You guy way over-rate the value of trading down.  Forget about losing out on the player, just the value in general...

Let's take a look...

1) You lose the #2 pick you get for Darnold

2) Next year you're going to have to take a QB anyway.  So either you're bad enough to take a QB high (which you're in the same position again - you're using one of those picks you got for trading down on a QB - which is a wash) , and half of you guys will be screaming to trade down - so we have another sh*tty year) or you have to trade up to get a guy you like.  By trading down now you may very well end up with a lesser QB prospect and don't net any additional picks....

Just take the QB when you're in a position to take one you like.

 

 

Firstly if they decide to stick with Darnold the plan is surely not to be picking a qb in 2022 and he is the guy for the future otherwise pick wilson/fields at #2

Secondly if they decide to trade and Darnold is the guy for the future here is the difference (traded Darnold to 49ers for 2nd)

Trade pick               Trade sam

#2 Darnold.           #2 wilson

#8 Pitts.                 #8 

#23 darrisaw         #23 darrisaw 

#34 Basham.         #34 Basham

#39 samuel jnr.     #43 leatherwood

the jets will also have an extra 2022 first round from the trade down

So yes the trade down will net two extra first round players in the next two drafts once they believe in Darnold and that's Joe's decision no matter how you or I feel about him.

So you are talking about 3 first round talent players (Darnold, Pitts and 2022 1st) as apposed to just 1 with picking wilson

*The mock draft above is only an example of players that could be selected in those position and not an indication of what I think we will do.

[Big_Slick]

33 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

 

Just looked back at the Wentz trade. If I am Carolina this is exactly what I want to pay as it seems like a bargain. 

 

It would totally suck not getting the Panthers 2nd round pick this year. As the Jets have made it clear they want a "High" 2 for Sam paired together with many draft people saying the grade of players of 25-45 or so are similar this may be a sticking point in trade talks for both teams. 

I guess my question to other fans is would they be happy getting the exact same deal as the Browns got in 2016? 

Personally with our gaping holes everywhere I would be unhappy with any trade that doesn't include the Panthers 2 this year and first next year. 

 

 

Not enough value for me. For a swap all the down to #8 I want their 2021 2nd and 3rd, 2022 1st and 2nd.

[FidelioJet]

6 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

Firstly if they decide to stick with Darnold the plan is surely not to be picking a qb in 2022 and he is the guy for the future otherwise pick wilson/fields at #2

Secondly if they decide to trade and Darnold is the guy for the future here is the difference (traded Darnold to 49ers for 2nd)

Trade pick               Trade sam

#2 Darnold.           #2 wilson

#8 Pitts.                 #8 

#23 darrisaw         #23 darrisaw 

#34 Basham.         #34 Basham

#39 samuel jnr.     #43 leatherwood

the jets will also have an extra 2022 first round from the trade down

So yes the trade down will net two extra first round players in the next two drafts once they believe in Darnold and that's Joe's decision no matter how you or I feel about him.

So you are talking about 3 first round talent players (Darnold, Pitts and 2022 1st) as apposed to just 1 with picking wilson

*The mock draft above is only an example of players that could be selected in those position and not an indication of what I think we will do.

This is all assuming Darnold is a keeper.  Which he, almost certainly, is not.  Sure, if Darnold is a legitimate FQB then trading down would be ideal. That's a huge leap though.

If he's not you have to use at least one of those picks for a QB next year (so same difference) and in all likelihood have to use both of the extra 1's to move up to get your QB - and that QB will likely be a lesser prospect. 

Honestly, unless you end up signing Sam to a long term contract, the net value over a two year window is just not that much.

[slats]

46 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

how pissed would this board be if the jets traded a good 2nd round pick for darnold?  that's how other teams see it.  i think douglas can get a 3rd this year and a conditional next year, that's probably the best package.  some teams that would trade for him wouldn't even consider him a starter this season.  

increasingly it seems that the jets probably won't get that much for darnold, and i suspect other teams won't fork over the farm to move up to 2, so the jets will ultimately have to decide how much they like wilson and this pro day should hopefully crystalize their plans.  

Lol, this fanbase is about as jaded as one can be, and this board is a disgruntled microcosm of that. 

Sam Darnold was the #1 QB prospect for a full year and a half before Dorsey shocked the football world and took Mayfield #1. Scouts and executives around the league had very high marks on him then, and I'm sure many still do now. There's no question that the Jets completely ****ed up their handling of Darnold and did absolutely nothing to support him. This is obvious to anyone around the league watching. All it takes is one coach or GM who believes they can resuscitate Sam Darnold's career. 

Like I said, I suspect we'll find out what the best offer for Darnold was. 

[adobolo2]

20 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is all assuming Darnold is a keeper.  Which he, almost certainly, is not.  Sure, if Darnold is a legitimate FQB then trading down would be ideal. That's a huge leap though.

If he's not you have to use at least one of those picks for a QB next year (so same difference) and in all likelihood have to use both of the extra 1's to move up to get your QB - and that QB will likely be a lesser prospect. 

Honestly, unless you end up signing Sam to a long term contract, the net value over a two year window is just not that much.

As I say who's going to be the qb of the future is Joes decision but if there is any doubt in his mind about Darnold then use the #2 on drafting a qb in this draft because as you say using draft picks trading on one next year is a waste.

As for the monetary implications of keeping Sam it doesn't really bother me like it does others. If he is your franchise QB pay him because we will have $80m cap space next year and the only player that MUST be paid in the next three years is Q Williams.

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

As I say who's going to be the qb of the future is Joes decision but if there is any doubt in his mind about Darnold then use the #2 on drafting a qb in this draft because as you say using draft picks trading on one next year is a waste.

As for the monetary implications of keeping Sam it doesn't really bother me like it does others. If he is your franchise QB pay him because we will have $80m cap space next year and the only player that MUST be paid in the next three years is Q Williams.

I don't mind paying him either if he's the guy.  The problem is, when you pay him you're mostly married to him then...and if he's just mediocre you're stuck in purgatory.

kinda like the raiders or lions have been for so long.  Good enough to stick around, but not good enough to win you anything.  So you're winning 7-9 games every year - until you start over at QB.  

I would rather have sh*tty QB play than mediocre QB play.  sh*tty QB allows you to start over.