How far do you think we could move up if we trade 23 and 34?

[bitonti]

Just now, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Ereck Flowers is currently a pro bowl snub left guard 

That's the thing about premium OT prospects: worst case they are a good guard 

What's Sam Darnolds value? A qb is either a franchise or a bust there's no soft landing there 

[bitonti]

3 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Double 

 

[Philc1]

13 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Absolutely.

The greatest OG of all time was a mid-2nd round pick.

Even all but one of the top current IOL out there were drafted outside the top 10.

Zack Martin - pick #16

David Decastro - pick #24

Joe Thuney - pick #78

In fact, the last OGs drafted in the top-10 before Nelson were Cooper and Warmack back in 2013.  And both effectively busted.

Drafting OL late has worked wonders for the jets

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Ereck Flowers is currently a pro bowl snub left guard 

That's the thing about premium OT prospects: worst case they are a good guard 

What's Sam Darnolds value? A qb is either a franchise or a bust there's no soft landing there 

Just going back to 2015. It doesn't seem that the rule is that premium OT are found in the top 10.

Last one.

[Bowles Movement]

22 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Projected premium players go early, but you can find pro-bowl caliber OL in the late first round, second round, and even the third. Orlando Brown was drafted in round three. Michael Onwenu went at pick 182 in the sixth round and he turned out to be an absolute steal. 

Tom Brady went in the 6 th rd and I guess you could say he was a steal too

Does that mean we should wait till then to pick a QB?   

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

1 minute ago, Bowles Movement said:

Tom Brady went in the 6 th rd and I guess you could say he was a steal too

Does that mean we should wait till then to pick a QB?   

Is that what you think?

[Bowles Movement]

1 minute ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Is that what you think?

That would be an extension of your thinking that good players are often found in later rounds, not what I think.

[Alka]

4 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Projected premium players go early, but you can find pro-bowl caliber OL in the late first round, second round, and even the third. Orlando Brown was drafted in round three. Michael Onwenu went at pick 182 in the sixth round and he turned out to be an absolute steal. 

I have a serious question for you.  When was the last time that the Jets had a  player in which they drafted after the 1st round, become a pro-bowl caliber OL?

The answer:  1981.  40 years ago!  There were 3.   We have gotten (3) players of pro-bowl caliber OL in the first round, but 3 times after the 1st round.  D'Brick, Mangold, Chris Ward, Marvin Powell, were all picked in the first round, and all made the pro-bowl with the exception of Chris Ward.  I personally felt that Chris Ward was good enough to make it though.

Brandon Moore, Winston Hill and Joe Fields.  Brandon Moore made the pro-bowl 10 years ago, but he was an undrafted free agent.  He doesn't count as a draftee. Joe Fields was drafted by the Jets and made the prowl in 1981.  And by the way, Joe Fields was 250 pounds when the Jets drafted him in the 14th round. He made the pro-bowl, but what is really the likelihood?  A shot in the dark is what it is.

Although you certainly can find those great players after the 1st round, the chances of greatness are greatly diminished.  You're better off getting them in the 1st round, IMO.

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

5 minutes ago, Alka said:

I have a serious question for you.  When was the last time that the Jets had a  player in which they drafted after the 1st round, become a pro-bowl caliber OL?

The answer:  1981.  40 years ago!  There were 3.   We have gotten (3) players of pro-bowl caliber OL in the first round, but 3 times after the 1st round.  D'Brick, Mangold, Chris Ward, Marvin Powell, were all picked in the first round, and all made the pro-bowl with the exception of Chris Ward.  I personally felt that Chris Ward was good enough to make it though.

Brandon Moore, Winston Hill and Joe Fields.  Brandon Moore made the pro-bowl 10 years ago, but he was an undrafted free agent.  He doesn't count as a draftee. Joe Fields was drafted by the Jets and made the prowl in 1981.  And by the way, Joe Fields was 250 pounds when the Jets drafted him in the 14th round. He made the pro-bowl, but what is really the likelihood?  A shot in the dark is what it is.

Although you certainly can find those great players after the 1st round, the chances of greatness are greatly diminished.  You're better off getting them in the 1st round, IMO.

Do you understand what logical fallacies are?

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

8 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

That would be an extension of your thinking that good players are often found in later rounds, not what I think.

You'd be very wrong if you thought that I thought that. That is NOT AT ALL what I think.

[bitonti]

25 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Just going back to 2015. It doesn't seem that the rule is that premium OT are found in the top 10.

Last one.

Going all the way back to 2015 ya say? 

Look at the quarterbacks picked at 2 overall in the same Era 

Heck look at the 1 overall qb as well while you're there 

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

Going all the way back to 2015 ya say? 

Look at the quarterbacks picked at 2 overall in the same Era 

Heck look at the 1 overall qb as well while you're there 

Would you like for me to go back further? My point is that you can find a premium OL anywhere in the draft and top 10-15 picks are not necessarily where you can find a premium OL. What pick was Mangold again? I forgot.

I know a QB who was picked at three if that means anything. 

[bitonti]

48 minutes ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Would you like for me to go back further? My point is that you can find a premium OL anywhere in the draft and top 10-15 picks are not necessarily where you can find a premium OL. What pick was Mangold again? I forgot.

I know a QB who was picked at three if that means anything. 

Every time I see Sam Darnold I see Quenton Nelson putting on a golden jacket. What a terrible pick. 

[HighPitch]

Like warfish said, if we take zach at 2 and there is a willing partner around 10 and one of the 3 top wrs or pitt is there i do this in a heartbeat.

joes problem is he wants more picks. Kinda like youre at Tads steakhouse and that 9.99 siloin is right in front of you and you trade it for 3 mcdonalds cheesburgers and a pack of gum. 

More doesnt mean better

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

I said premium players 

Not guards /s

By the way the best guard in nfl history went 6 in the Sam Darnold draft 

No.  Just no.

Nelson is a great OG.  He isn't close enough to Larry Allen to sniff his jock downwind.  And it will take a decade of dominance before he can do that.  If you're trying to claim differently then you should give up watching football because you are bad at it.

[playtowinthegame]

Joe Douglas needs more at bats, not less. 

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

Every time I see Sam Darnold I see Quenton Nelson putting on a golden jacket. What a terrible pick. 

90% of what Macc touched turned to trash. We would have been better off if he WAY overpaid for Cousins and we drafted Nelson and kept three 2nd round picks. Even Macc would have accidentally drafted someone good from the three 2nds. 

I'm a Penei Sewell guy, so you don't have to convince me that we need to take OL early in the draft, 

[isired]

Just going back to 2015. It doesn't seem that the rule is that premium OT are found in the top 10.
Last one.

In order to make that case, you've got to look at all OT taken outside of the top 10 and see what % hit, and look at their careers vs. those taken in the top ten. You might be right, but cherry picking a handful of premium OT doesn't prove it.

[Mike135]

14 hours ago, Maxman said:

If the Jets don't take an offensive linemen in the first or 2nd round this year, Joe Douglas should be forced to play offensive line next year.

Possibly better, make him play QB and get destroyed back there.

"See how he likes it." - Sam

[isired]

Some of the data - but doesn't really help your case because it doesn't say what happened outside the top 10. BTW they put all OL together for this set because so few C & G got drafted in the top 10.

Top 10
25-year trends
But let's focus in now on only the top-10 selections, starting with a 25-year sample from—again—1986 to 2010. However, few guards, centers and tight ends are ever drafted that early. And because the study results were fairly similar between sister positions in both cases, we've bunched tackles, guards and centers together (OL), and we've done the same thing with wide receivers and tight ends. Also, because the onus is larger, we've changed the criteria a bit. Now, we're only counting players who have been first-team All-Pros at least twice. Same rule applies to the Pro Bowl in a moment. 

All-Pro rates among top-10 picks, 25-year sample
Position / Drafted / Multiple All-Pros / All-Pro rate
OL 37 8 21.6%
CB 23 4 17.4%
RB 29 5 17.2%
WR/TE 34 4 11.8%
DL 55 6 10.9%
LB 28 3 10.7%
QB 33 1 3.0%
S 11 0 0.0%

Pass-catchers have fared a lot better when drafted early, and we're seeing stronger early returns for cornerbacks and running backs. But with guys such as Jonathan Ogden, Willie Roaf, Walter Jones, Joe Thomas, Orlando Pace and Tony Boselli, offensive linemen really kick ass here. Again, quarterbacks don't really count here because it's an uneven playing field. But it's hard to believe that not a single safety drafted in the top 10 during this 25-year stretch has been a two-time first-team All-Pro. Only Roy Williams, Eric Berry and Eric Turner have accomplished that feat once. (Keep in mind that Rod Woodson wasn't drafted as a safety.)

Bust rates among top-10 picks, 25-year sample
Position / Drafted / Busts / Bust rate
RB 29 16 55.2%
DL55 22 40.0%
WR/TE 34 13 38.2%
QB 33 12 36.4%
LB 28 8 28.6%
OL 37 10 27.0%
CB 23 5 21.7%
S 11 2 18.2%

We didn't learn from Alonzo Highsmith or Brent Fullwood? Or Ki-Jana Carter or Lawrence Phillips? Or Darren McFadden or Cadillac Williams or Cedric Benson? It seems that once again, the DBs, the offensive linemen and the linebackers are safe picks early, while running backs are toxic and defensive linemen pose huge risks.

[Defense Wins Championships]

We need 3 impact player's, not just two. 

As much as I'd hate to pass up on Sewell/Fields/Wilson?

I think we should trade out of #2 for a kings random. 

Maybe have 4 1st round picks next year. 

[Jets723]

12 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

We need 3 impact player's, not just two. 

As much as I'd hate to pass up on Sewell/Fields/Wilson?

I think we should trade out of #2 for a kings random. 

Maybe have 4 1st round picks next year. 

I’m totally cool with that.  I’m fine with drafting a QB at 2 but if JD isn’t in love with Wilson or Fields  then trading back will give us a ton of high picks to build the team quickly 

[BurnleyJet]

8 hours ago, bitonti said:

Premium ol don't go 23 and 34

Decent Starters are there. The premium players go top 10

Tackles go top 10, you can pick a premium Center or Guard later.

[BurnleyJet]

I can see us trading out of 23 to gain more #2, 3# rounders, and 2022 picks.

[Jets723]

8 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

I can see us trading out of 23 to gain more #2, 3# rounders, and 2022 picks.

Yeah I see Joe trading down a couple of times

[HighPitch]

12 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

I can see us trading out of 23 to gain more #2, 3# rounders, and 2022 picks.

I hope not. Just take the bpa in a position of need. We dont need more zunigas and morgans

[football guy]

I wouldn't rule out a move into the top 10 depending how far Kyle Pitts fell

[isired]

I hope not. Just take the bpa in a position of need. We dont need more zunigas and morgans

Zuniga might be OK in Saleh's D.

[HighPitch]

Im surprised how many people are ok with trading down non stop. So the 34 traded for, in the end, amounts to a 4, two 5ths and 2 6ths is ok????

rather take a swing and a miss for an early second (34) than hope 1 of 5 bums in the later rounds pans out....

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

7 hours ago, isired said:

11 hours ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Just going back to 2015. It doesn't seem that the rule is that premium OT are found in the top 10.
Last one.

In order to make that case, you've got to look at all OT taken outside of the top 10 and see what % hit, and look at their careers vs. those taken in the top ten. You might be right, but cherry picking a handful of premium OT doesn't prove it.

Not at all. This isn't an argument over which picks hit with a greater frequency. It not cherry picking when a significant amount of OT picked in the top 10 are busts. It's more than a cherry picked few. 

[Bruce Harper]

On 3/20/2021 at 11:29 PM, HighPitch said:

Just wondering...

lets say we draft zach at 2. The 34 and 23 together are worth around 9 - 11 range according to the chart.

that would be a real blue chip player. Worth it? Would anybody do it?

ps yes, i know we have a lot of holes to fill but we would have zack plus one of these guys like:

slater, jaycee horn, pitts, chase, who knows....

Would rather have two players.

[fullblast]

I wouldn't exactly be against this if all it took was throwing in the second rounder. That's 2 blue chippers, and we still have our 2 picks in the third.

Wouldn't be my preferred route, but if they could get within spitting distance of the top 10 that would be tempting.

[bitonti]

20 hours ago, nycdan said:

No.  Just no.

Nelson is a great OG.  He isn't close enough to Larry Allen to sniff his jock downwind.  And it will take a decade of dominance before he can do that.  If you're trying to claim differently then you should give up watching football because you are bad at it.

Quenton Nelson is having a Larry Allen type career

Meanwhile we are trying to wring a second Rd pick out of darnold

A guy they used 3 overall and 3 2nd Rd picks on 

I'll say it again

What a terrible pick 

[nycdan]

20 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Quenton Nelson is having a Larry Allen type career

Meanwhile we are trying to wring a second Rd pick out of darnold

A guy they used 3 overall and 3 2nd Rd picks on 

I'll say it again

What a terrible pick 

You are conflating the decision to move up to 3 and take Darnold with a comparison between Nelson and Allen.  You are usually much better than that.  These are completely different.  

Nelson is having a great career.  In no way can any objective person compare him to Larry Allen yet.  Being one of the best of your generation isn't the same thing as being so dominant that teams and players game plan around a Guard.  The equivalent would be saying TJ Watt is the best Linebacker of all time.  You can say it.  You'll sound foolish.

Get back to us in another 3 years and maybe, if Nelson continues what he does, he starts getting HoF discussion.  But best all time? Now? Nobody who isn't trying to be controversial on a football message board is saying that.

[bitonti]

5 minutes ago, nycdan said:

You are conflating the decision to move up to 3 and take Darnold with a comparison between Nelson and Allen.  You are usually much better than that.  These are completely different.  

Nelson is having a great career.  In no way can any objective person compare him to Larry Allen yet.  Being one of the best of your generation isn't the same thing as being so dominant that teams and players game plan around a Guard.  The equivalent would be saying TJ Watt is the best Linebacker of all time.  You can say it.  You'll sound foolish.

Get back to us in another 3 years and maybe, if Nelson continues what he does, he starts getting HoF discussion.  But best all time? Now? Nobody who isn't trying to be controversial on a football message board is saying that.

You're mistaken, friend. 

Larry Allen is a 7x All pro over 14 years 

Quenton Nelson is a 3x All pro in 3 years 

Nelson needs to make 4 more all Pros in 11 potential years to reach Larry Allen

Larry Allen was also arrested for a bunch of crap 

Shoot man, Nelson might be better than Allen, hence the best guard of all time. He is going to Canton. 

You want to bet on it? I'll be here in 15 years, God willing. It's not a fact it's a prediction I'm willing to bet money on 

meanwhile 

Darnold's going to the Circle K in Capistrano Beach

 

how can the decision to move up for Darnold NOT take into account passing on Nelson? 

 

WHAT A TERRIBLE A PICK