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Five Reasons I Believe the Jets are Retaining Sam Darnold


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1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

So, I could see Saleh thinking that if he makes Sam a game manager, he might be able to make it work.

This statment here makes me want to puke. A game manager? Is that really what we're hoping for from Darnold?

#JustDraftJustin(orZach).

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As the title implies these are five quick reasons that I've come to the conclusion the Jets are not going to draft a quarterback (Wilson or Fields) with their top pick. 1. The Jets only have two

1. The Jets are dumb. 2. The Jets do dumb things. 3. Not doing everything to upgrade from Sam Darnold is a dumb thing. 4. ??? 5. ???

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2 hours ago, manuvsteal said:

5.  Last on my list but most important is the report that came out last week that the Jets were split on keeping or trading Sam Darnold.  In the report it stated Joe Douglas wanted to trade, but the coaching staff wanted to keep Sam Darnold.  This one is simple.  If you are the GM, and you just hired a new coach to a multi-year contract. The owner is leaning on you to get it right, and the coach says keep Darnold, the first decision you make is not going to be to go against your head coach and trade the guy he wants to keep.  The owner should defer to the GM's wishes.  The GM in turn should (most of the time) try to keep the coach happy.  We just had warring GM and coach with McCagnan and Gase, and we won't see that re-hashed less than 2 years later.   The most logical guess to me is that although Joe D. has final say, he'll want to form the roster to Robert Salah's expectations.  

This would be your most compelling case, except for the fact that every so-called leak during this free agency period has proven to be bull****. 

And I think the lack of a veteran presence at QB is a surer sign that they're moving on from Darnold than retaining him. It would be completely reckless to head into the season with Darnold and Morgan as your only QBs. 

I suspect the Jets are enjoying being the center of all this intrigue, and that it keeps the interest in both Darnold and the #2 pick high. 

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45 minutes ago, Biggs said:

No I don't think he has any QB not named Lawrence rated as his top pick at 2.  He probably has at lest 4 player rated higher than any QB in this draft not named Lawrence.  He might not have any rated higher than Darnold.

Serious question, the theory is, just take a QB to be your starter just as long as he's the highest rated guy you have on the board at the time?  Regardless of the QB prospect, if you have someone rated higher, you pass on the QB?

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Biggs said:

He's been in the league for 4 years.  He was a 3rd round pick who started 5 games as a rookie.  In year 2 as a full time starter he was a 1000 yard receiver with 15.2 yards per catch and 5TD's.  In year 3 he was a 1000 yard receiver with 18.3 YPC and 11 TD's.  In year 4 he got hurt and started 5 games and got hurt.  He was on pace for another 1000 yard year and he was averaging 16.9 Yards per. 

He's an outright beast when healthy.  He's a big rangy receiver with speed with a huge catch radius.  He's numbers when healthy were terrific.  He's in his absolute prime.  I'm just saying there's a health issue.  You do the due diligence and he passes, he's worth the contract and we have the money.

You are only as good as your availability. Like I said, he isn't terrible. But he isn't some must sign player. 

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2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Well thought out... I disagree with it all.

1. There are plenty of signable QBs out there that can serve as a mentor or backup.

2. Captain Morgan is a complete unknown.

3. I like Pitts .. but see him going around 8.

4. GMs dont make picks just to make there coaches happy... they have meeting that help inform their decisions.

5. If a great prospect is available to you... that is a rare occurence... you cant pass it up.
 

1. They why haven't we signed one?

2. Yes, and he is unknown because, in a 2-14 season he could not get on the field for one snap all year, but he is going to be ready to lead the team if Wilson goes down on his bum shoulder?

3. Maybe JD trades down more than once and winds up around 8. Or maybe JD and Saleh, football professionals, disagree with you on where Pitts should be drafted. I like the Gronk analogy; Brady to Gronk kicked our butts for a decade.

4. GMs don't disregard the wishes of their hand-picked new head coach. A good GM gets the types of players the HC wants.

5. Yes, if a great player is available. We don't have that this year. Wilson had one good year, and one major shoulder surgery. Hardly qualifies as a "great player."

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2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Serious question, the theory is, just take a QB to be your starter just as long as he's the highest rated guy you have on the board at the time?  Regardless of the QB prospect, if you have someone rated higher, you pass on the QB?

 

 

This is a very subjective question.  I'm pretty sure we didn't have Darnold rated No. 1 on our board when we took him.  I would bet that most NFL GM's had Nelson, Barkley and Ward rated higher than Darnold.  They may have been rated higher than Mayfield who I think was the No. 1 QB on our board on draft day.   Granted we passed on two elite NFL QB's the year before because we had Adams rated ahead of both of them.  

I'm not particularly a fan of Daniel Jones but I could see the argument that having Jones and Barkley going forward is a lot better than having Sam Darnold going forward.  

There's no definitive right answer without hindsight when it becomes obvious.  It's sort of like analytics and managing down and distance or when to pull your starting pitcher.  Some guys have a feel for it and others go by the book.  

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1 hour ago, Biggs said:

No I don't think he has any QB not named Lawrence rated as his top pick at 2.  He probably has at lest 4 player rated higher than any QB in this draft not named Lawrence.  He might not have any rated higher than Darnold.

Not necessarily.

Perhaps JD knows (and we don't) that ownership has said to him "we're in it for the long haul with you and Saleh, we trust you, we're going to give you time no matter how the first few seasons record out, as long as we're improving".  A distinct possibility this, and in line with talk that ownership isn't meddling and that JD is the boss of Saleh (unlike in the past).

So lets presume that the above might be true, in which case the record in 2021 isn't truly relevant (and will likely show improvement almost no matter what we do, we were that bad in 2020).  Lets presume that even with Darnold, the simple fact of better, healthy WR's and a new, better designed Offense (both I think we'd all agree are facts now), will lead to an improved record vs. 2020.  In which case JD and Saleh are fine, no hot seat for them.

Lets presume further that JD, being JD, thinks we need more picks to fix the roster.  He's shown a penchant for trading down in his brief tenure so far.  Lets presume maybe he isn't as sold on Wilson as some think (big presume, hard to confirm, but for giggles lets presume this).  In that case, he's going to sell that #2 pick for maximum draft asset value, while (we'd hope) staying high enough to snag an elite talent at a skill O position, a Tackle, or an Edge plus more picks in the 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd.

We all presume (it seems) that JD is going QB, but we could have it wrong.  I'm not advocating for this or even arguing it's likely, I'm hypothesizing, but it IS a possibility IMO.  More than I think alot of posters here think tbqh or want to accept.

Comes down to two things:

1. Is JD and Saleh 100% sold on Wilson and 100% done with Darnold?

2. Do JD and Saleh see more value in Wilson than in what that #2 pick can buy it traded down.

I still think it's 80-90% likely we do the expected, "sure thing" and draft Wilson (who I personally think will not be a success, for the record).

But I don't think it's impossible we stick with Darnold, give him more assets to support him, and try him one more time, this time with support (a first) and hopefully a decent offense/coaching staff (would also be a first).

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5 minutes ago, Alentador31 said:

You are only as good as your availability. Like I said, he isn't terrible. But he isn't some must sign player. 

If he isn't terrible we signed a bunch of turds.  We didn't have to do that either. 

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i completely agree with OP - with three number one picks next year we have all ammo we’d need to trade up to take qb of the year if need be - plus if darnold turns around we can complete talent restock- problem for me is all the speculation in the world won’t shed light on what jets really do draft night - gonna be a long m4 weeks


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3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Not necessarily.

Perhaps JD knows (and we don't) that ownership has said to him "we're in it for the long haul with you and Saleh, we trust you, we're going to give you time no matter how the first few seasons record out, as long as we're improving".  A distinct possibility this, and in line with talk that ownership isn't meddling and that JD is the boss of Saleh (unlike in the past).

So lets presume that the above might be true, in which case the record in 2021 isn't truly relevant (and will likely show improvement almost no matter what we do, we were that bad in 2020).  Lets presume that even with Darnold, the simple fact of better, healthy WR's and a new, better designed Offense (both I think we'd all agree are facts now), will lead to an improved record vs. 2020.  In which case JD and Saleh are fine, no hot seat for them.

Lets presume further that JD, being JD, thinks we need more picks to fix the roster.  He's shown a penchant for trading down in his brief tenure so far.  Lets presume maybe he isn't as sold on Wilson as some thing (big presume, hard to confirm, but for giggles lets presume this).  In that case, he's going to sell that #2 pick for maximum draft asset value, while (we'd hope) staying high enough to snag an elite talent at a skill O position, a Tackle, or an Edge plus more picks in the 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd.

We all presume (it seems) that JD is going QB, but we could have it wrong.  I', not advocating for this or even arguing it's likely, but it IS a possibility IMO.  More than I think alot of posters here think tbqh or want to accept.

Comes down to two things:

1. Is JD and Saleh 100% sold on Wilson and 100% done with Darnold?

2. Do JD and Saleh see more value in Wilson than in what that #2 pick can buy it traded down.

I still think it's 80-90% likely we do the expected, "sure thing" and draft Wilson (who I personally think will not be a success, for the record).

But I don't think it's impossible we stick with Darnold, give him more assets to support him, and try him one more time, this time with support (a first) and hopefully a decent offense/coaching staff (would also be a first).

I don't think he is going QB for exactly the reasons you outlined better than I could.  My fear about JD is he's not actually Ozzie.  He's going to go by the value book because it's the easiest surest way to build the roster.  At some point what separates the good from the great is having a feel for when to go off script.  I don't think Douglas is close to at that point yet.

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Nice write up. Here's what I'll say: I think the media is jumping the gun on suggesting it's absolutely going to be Wilson. I think the pro-day is a huge piece because it's the first time the team's brass will get up close with him, and they'll be able to get some medical stuff done which is probably the most important factor in all of this. Privately, the Jets stance on the situation is no different than what it's been made out to be publicly. They remain open to sticking with Darnold and trading #2, I think the Jets remain open to trading Darnold and drafting Wilson at #2. The tune that's changed is perceived market for each asset. 

Jets have received some criticism because it looks like that less demand will mean a weaker market if Darnold were to become available, but people with the team don't think that's the case. They feel teams will still line up to trade for him if made available, whether it be as a competition to their current starter or as a 1-year backup with the sights set on taking over next year. There are enough teams still interested to ensure they get a reasonable return for Sam, and they know a market exists for the #2 pick. However, the amount of suitors for Sam is greater than that for the #2 because the depth at QB in this draft class.

Since there are so many "top" QBs in this class, there's less confidence that the Jets can get a Rams/Browns-like haul for #2. It's no secret that option 1A for Carolina is to trade for Deshaun Watson, and if that fails, trade up for a QB. As much as they would likely take Wilson, they reportedly love Trey Lance and Mac Jones. Whether that's just them playing poker or legitimate is hard to say, but if they feel the price to pay for #2 is too big, they probably feel confident that they can move up a few spots to land a QB if they deem the price for #2 too expensive. The Falcons can move up, but I don't think they would bid what the Jets want to move down. I don't think the Eagles move up. So really you're hoping Denver drives up the market for #2. I don't think the Jets want to move outside the top 10, making a trade with San Francisco tough, and I don't think San Fran is hellbent on moving up for a QB. 

So assuming Wilson's medicals check out, the Jets will have to decide what makes the most sense: #2 for something like #8, #39, and a 2022 1st, or Darnold for something like a 2nd and 4th round pick. 

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10 minutes ago, football guy said:

Nice write up. Here's what I'll say: I think the media is jumping the gun on suggesting it's absolutely going to be Wilson. I think the pro-day is a huge piece because it's the first time the team's brass will get up close with him, and they'll be able to get some medical stuff done which is probably the most important factor in all of this. Privately, the Jets stance on the situation is no different than what it's been made out to be publicly. They remain open to sticking with Darnold and trading #2, I think the Jets remain open to trading Darnold and drafting Wilson at #2. The tune that's changed is perceived market for each asset. 

Jets have received some criticism because it looks like that less demand will mean a weaker market if Darnold were to become available, but people with the team don't think that's the case. They feel teams will still line up to trade for him if made available, whether it be as a competition to their current starter or as a 1-year backup with the sights set on taking over next year. There are enough teams still interested to ensure they get a reasonable return for Sam, and they know a market exists for the #2 pick. However, the amount of suitors for Sam is greater than that for the #2 because the depth at QB in this draft class.

Since there are so many "top" QBs in this class, there's less confidence that the Jets can get a Rams/Browns-like haul for #2. It's no secret that option 1A for Carolina is to trade for Deshaun Watson, and if that fails, trade up for a QB. As much as they would likely take Wilson, they reportedly love Trey Lance and Mac Jones. Whether that's just them playing poker or legitimate is hard to say, but if they feel the price to pay for #2 is too big, they probably feel confident that they can move up a few spots to land a QB if they deem the price for #2 too expensive. The Falcons can move up, but I don't think they would bid what the Jets want to move down. I don't think the Eagles move up. So really you're hoping Denver drives up the market for #2. I don't think the Jets want to move outside the top 10, making a trade with San Francisco tough, and I don't think San Fran is hellbent on moving up for a QB. 

So assuming Wilson's medicals check out, the Jets will have to decide what makes the most sense: #2 for something like #8, #39, and a 2022 1st, or Darnold for something like a 2nd and 4th round pick. 

the interesting take here, is that many here always assumed that if the jets put the 2 pick up for sale there would automatically be multiple suitors willing to dole out major draft capital to get there.  but if carolina doesn't want to fork up that much, then the jets would pretty much be relying on atlanta wanting to move from 4 to 2 if the jets wanted to trade out of 2.  so in other words, while part of the decision will be how much they can get for darnold, ultimately the decision may rest on how much they can get for this 2 pick, which may not be enough to entice them to trade out of 2.

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13 minutes ago, football guy said:

So assuming Wilson's medicals check out, the Jets will have to decide what makes the most sense: #2 for something like #8, #39, and a 2022 1st, or Darnold for something like a 2nd and 4th round pick. 

I feel like this is a good summation of the state of things.

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2 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Darnold will be on a different  team most likely. It just doesn't make sense to keep him.  Not a knock on his ability,  it's  just the clock has run out on him. 

This is kinda what I think as well. There are some who just believe he isn't any good. Which is fair and hard to argue based on his overall body of work.

I lost faith in him early in the 2020 season, but I don't know for sure if he isn't a starting caliber QB at the NFL level. The problem is what you said, the clock has just run out on him in my opinion.

Jets have the number 2 pick in what is considered a good QB draft class on paper. 

The Jets can't pick up his fifth year option based on his play in his first 3 years. So he'd basically be playing on the final year of his contract if the Jets did keep him.

Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh didn't draft him. 

There's just a lot working against Darnold coming back for a fourth year. 

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6 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

the interesting take here, is that many here always assumed that if the jets put the 2 pick up for sale there would automatically be multiple suitors willing to dole out major draft capital to get there.  but if carolina doesn't want to fork up that much, then the jets would pretty much be relying on atlanta wanting to move from 4 to 2 if the jets wanted to trade out of 2.  so in other words, while part of the decision will be how much they can get for darnold, ultimately the decision may rest on how much they can get for this 2 pick, which may not be enough to entice them to trade out of 2.

Carolina has always been interested and still is, but as the process has crystalized I think they too are approaching it as flexible as possible. What the Jets have always valued about the position they're in is flexibility: while fans saw them losing out on the #1 pick as something that would set the franchise back, the Jets saw it as an opportunity. You can't have #1 and not take the QB. At #2, they have so many options at their disposal whether it be Deshaun, Sam, or Zach. And while the Jets felt they were in a better position than any team needing a QB in the NFL given said flexibility, I don't think they truly appreciated that other teams (like Carolina and Denver) have that same flexibility playing to their benefit as well.

If the Jets were to trade #2, they'd want it done before the draft. Like weeks before. And while that was thought as the likely outcome, Watson potentially becoming available has changed team's strategies. What happens if the Panthers traded with the Jets on 4/9 only for Houston to do a 180 and make Deshaun available a week later? If other teams aren't actively plotting to trade for #2, why would Carolina bid against themselves?

I think Carolina's priority is as follows: 

  1. Trade for Deshaun Watson 
  2. Trade up to #2, select Zach Wilson 
  3. Trade up a few spots for Trey Lance 
  4. Stay put and select Mac Jones or Justin Fields 
  5. Trade for QB Sam Darnold 

It does not behoove them as much as it once did to trade up to #2 early unless the Jets are giving a discount. Likewise, it does not behoove the Jets to give a discount when they can extract FMV other ways and still sit at #2 to take a QB. So while I wasn't given percentages on what they expect to happen this past weekend, what it ultimately comes down to is value. If the Jets don't get what they perceive to be FMV for #2 but are getting it for Sam, they'll probably make the trade. If they're getting what they feel is FMV for #2, then I think they trade it and keep Sam. But the date to watch out for is April 9. They think the Jets will have resolved this by then

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I'm honestly starting to lean this way as much as it pains me to say it.  However, I'd go out and sign Teddy Bridgewater and let them battle it out for the starting role in TC.   This team is so miserable and so many huge questions marks, bringing a rookie in is going to be a disaster.  Wilson/Fields/Lance need time and sh*tty part is, we dont know how much time this roster needs.  You basically punted on all roster evaluations so we really dont know how far they are, it could easily still be 3-4 years away from having adequate enough talent to compete with how good the AFC is right now.

That is unless, they trade back and get a massive haul.  They could hypothetically rebuild entire units with proper execution.  I think there is talent at positions of need going all the way in the 4th round.  

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29 minutes ago, football guy said:

Nice write up. Here's what I'll say: I think the media is jumping the gun on suggesting it's absolutely going to be Wilson. I think the pro-day is a huge piece because it's the first time the team's brass will get up close with him, and they'll be able to get some medical stuff done which is probably the most important factor in all of this. Privately, the Jets stance on the situation is no different than what it's been made out to be publicly. They remain open to sticking with Darnold and trading #2, I think the Jets remain open to trading Darnold and drafting Wilson at #2. The tune that's changed is perceived market for each asset. 

Jets have received some criticism because it looks like that less demand will mean a weaker market if Darnold were to become available, but people with the team don't think that's the case. They feel teams will still line up to trade for him if made available, whether it be as a competition to their current starter or as a 1-year backup with the sights set on taking over next year. There are enough teams still interested to ensure they get a reasonable return for Sam, and they know a market exists for the #2 pick. However, the amount of suitors for Sam is greater than that for the #2 because the depth at QB in this draft class.

Since there are so many "top" QBs in this class, there's less confidence that the Jets can get a Rams/Browns-like haul for #2. It's no secret that option 1A for Carolina is to trade for Deshaun Watson, and if that fails, trade up for a QB. As much as they would likely take Wilson, they reportedly love Trey Lance and Mac Jones. Whether that's just them playing poker or legitimate is hard to say, but if they feel the price to pay for #2 is too big, they probably feel confident that they can move up a few spots to land a QB if they deem the price for #2 too expensive. The Falcons can move up, but I don't think they would bid what the Jets want to move down. I don't think the Eagles move up. So really you're hoping Denver drives up the market for #2. I don't think the Jets want to move outside the top 10, making a trade with San Francisco tough, and I don't think San Fran is hellbent on moving up for a QB. 

So assuming Wilson's medicals check out, the Jets will have to decide what makes the most sense: #2 for something like #8, #39, and a 2022 1st, or Darnold for something like a 2nd and 4th round pick. 

Appreciate the post. 

Do you believe we could trade down and take Lance/Fields? Most of the scenarios so far on here and elsewhere, seem to be either draft Wilson v keep Darnold, trade down. 

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4 minutes ago, football guy said:

Carolina has always been interested and still is, but as the process has crystalized I think they too are approaching it as flexible as possible. What the Jets have always valued about the position they're in is flexibility: while fans saw them losing out on the #1 pick as something that would set the franchise back, the Jets saw it as an opportunity. You can't have #1 and not take the QB. At #2, they have so many options at their disposal whether it be Deshaun, Sam, or Zach. And while the Jets felt they were in a better position than any team needing a QB in the NFL given said flexibility, I don't think they truly appreciated that other teams (like Carolina and Denver) have that same flexibility playing to their benefit as well.

If the Jets were to trade #2, they'd want it done before the draft. Like weeks before. And while that was thought as the likely outcome, Watson potentially becoming available has changed team's strategies. What happens if the Panthers traded with the Jets on 4/9 only for Houston to do a 180 and make Deshaun available a week later? If other teams aren't actively plotting to trade for #2, why would Carolina bid against themselves?

I think Carolina's priority is as follows: 

  1. Trade for Deshaun Watson 
  2. Trade up to #2, select Zach Wilson 
  3. Trade up a few spots for Trey Lance 
  4. Stay put and select Mac Jones or Justin Fields 
  5. Trade for QB Sam Darnold 

It does not behoove them as much as it once did to trade up to #2 early unless the Jets are giving a discount. Likewise, it does not behoove the Jets to give a discount when they can extract FMV other ways and still sit at #2 to take a QB. So while I wasn't given percentages on what they expect to happen this past weekend, what it ultimately comes down to is value. If the Jets don't get what they perceive to be FMV for #2 but are getting it for Sam, they'll probably make the trade. If they're getting what they feel is FMV for #2, then I think they trade it and keep Sam. But the date to watch out for is April 9. They think the Jets will have resolved this by then

I don’t see The Godfather offer being given to the Jets fo the 2nd pick. I just think, as you said, other teams looking to trade up have flexibility.

It doesn’t help our trade value for #2 either that Miami is sitting there at 3 as a possible trade partner. This is a good QB class and I don’t see JD getting the value offer it will require to trade down.

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2 hours ago, Biggs said:

He's not a high risk GM.  That's the point.  Look at what he's done so far last year and this year.  Low risk value picks in both FA and the draft.  Contracts that allow the team to move on quickly.  There is nothing that says "no risk it no biscuit".  The philosophy of the current team that holds the SB trophy. 

Aren't you the guy who said "Sam is the greatest prospect since Luck"  Granted he wasn't the top prospect on the board of the two team ahead of us in the draft but that's besides the point.  Why move on from Sam for sloppy seconds again?

I think its a little odd to call JD not a "high risk GM". He gambled on Becton, reached on Morgan and took Zuniga who was a real risk, and hasnt seemed to pan out. In FA he looks like low producers with high potential to maximize on contract money. 

Hard to see JD as a low risk GM. 

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Solid piece by OP....

I do think Sam can be a better QB then he was last year, how much better is the question. There is no dispute we need to fill alot of holes and extra picks help do that. However, it has to be a haul, not just another 1st rounder in 22 and a 3rd rounder now. 

It would also sting very much if Wilson becomes the real deal.

The decision is truly the toughest I seen in years. 

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11 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

Appreciate the post. 

Do you believe we could trade down and take Lance/Fields? Most of the scenarios so far on here and elsewhere, seem to be either draft Wilson v keep Darnold, trade down. 

No 

7 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

I don’t see The Godfather offer being given to the Jets fo the 2nd pick. I just think, as you said, other teams looking to trade up have flexibility.

It doesn’t help our trade value for #2 either that Miami is sitting there at 3 as a possible trade partner. This is a good QB class and I don’t see JD getting the value offer it will require to trade down.

I still think it may come, but it may not come when the Jets would want it to. And I don't think Miami has any impact. At the end of the day the Jets have all the leverage they need: if they're trying to get Carolina to make the trade, they can play hardball and give off signals that they're taking Wilson/trading Darnold, even if their intent is to get the highest offer for #2. If Carolina (or another team) really loves Wilson, that could be enough to make them cave. And if they don't, the Jets can take Wilson/trade Sam. Either scenario I don't think the Jets would feel like they "lost"... Jets truly aren't looking at the situation emotionally 

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23 minutes ago, football guy said:

No 

I still think it may come, but it may not come when the Jets would want it to. And I don't think Miami has any impact. At the end of the day the Jets have all the leverage they need: if they're trying to get Carolina to make the trade, they can play hardball and give off signals that they're taking Wilson/trading Darnold, even if their intent is to get the highest offer for #2. If Carolina (or another team) really loves Wilson, that could be enough to make them cave. And if they don't, the Jets can take Wilson/trade Sam. Either scenario I don't think the Jets would feel like they "lost"... Jets truly aren't looking at the situation emotionally 

Sounds good/encouraging that they’re thinking so methodically. Breath of fresh air at One Jets Drive.

Question for you, as you mentioned the Jets would like to trade down weeks before the draft (if that’s the direction they go)....

  • The closer we get to the draft, if no trade has been made will that indicate that Wilson is more likely the pick?
  • Any chance they keep Sam and still draft Wilson?
  • If they decide to trade Sam, will that also be of the same timeline (weeks before the draft)? Or that can happen at anytime?
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The 49ers did not pass on Sam or Allen, they picked 9th that year and drafted OL McGlinchey.

Gase and his convoluted offense destroyed Sam. Will the Shanahan offense be better suited for Darnold, I have no idea.

 

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To me you can't ignore the Johnsons being the Johnsons, even if JD is supposedly in charge.

What have we seen the Johnsons do over the past 20 years?

They really don't like to pay players large single year sums of money, particularly for some odd reason their own players.  Other stars-ok-but not the guys they drafted.  They are really not going to want to offer Darnold a long-term contract and will likely choke on the fifth year option.

The Johnsons are also very focused on getting compensated for their former first round picks.   Where other teams would just let go and let them walk and get the comp pick, the Johnsons seek extra compensation.  

Adding to this is how the Jets managed Darnold.   The Jets did not do enough to show the NFL last year that Darnold could be a functioning NFL QB.  Why would a team pay a 2nd round or better pick for a QB that looked like Darnold last year?  If a team does not trade for Darnold, the Jets are stuck with his guaranteed salary.  How much would another backup cost?

So, to me, the best option would be for the coaches to fix up Darnold, like a fix and flip, and try and trade him later.  That could require a bet on the fifth year option next year.  If Wilson measures like an NFL QB this week, you draft him, because if he turns out good JD never lives it down.   Roll with the two QBs for a combined $10mm+ less than what Garoppolo costs.  Trade Darnold at the end of the season, or mid-season if you are feeling adventurous.  

In trading Darnold, the Jets could eat some of the fifth year option salary in return for draft picks.

If the coaches have confidence that they can make Darnold look better than he did last year, that is what I would do. 

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2 hours ago, AFerg726 said:

We will see how all of this plays out internally, but considering the lack of trade interest in Sam I am more convinced than ever that we need to move on. One of the main arguments for Sam is that he has been held back and/or screwed up by Gase; a problem that would not exist for an acquiring team. There has been incredible QB turnover this offseason, and yet we see QB needy teams deciding that players like Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick are better bets for the short-term than Sam are striking. Quarterback is the most important position in the league and if teams that need one have decided that a second round pick is not worth it for this player, they are saying he isn't good. If the league doesn't want Sam, why should we be banking our hopes on him?

Based on what? Do you have JD's phone tapped? How do you know what interest there is or isn't in Sam? Unless JD had already decided he was definitely going to trade Sam, there is no way to know how much interest there was or is in Sam. Just because JD said he would take calls does not mean he would be willing to trade Sam. Think about Jamal. It took a ridiculous offer to get JD to trade him. Without the two first round picks from Seattle there is a good chance Jamal would have been playing for us last year.

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2 hours ago, slats said:

This would be your most compelling case, except for the fact that every so-called leak during this free agency period has proven to be bull****. 

And I think the lack of a veteran presence at QB is a surer sign that they're moving on from Darnold than retaining him. It would be completely reckless to head into the season with Darnold and Morgan as your only QBs

I suspect the Jets are enjoying being the center of all this intrigue, and that it keeps the interest in both Darnold and the #2 pick high. 

And it would be even more reckless to head into the season with a rookie with one good college year and Morgan as your only QBs.

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

Carolina has always been interested and still is, but as the process has crystalized I think they too are approaching it as flexible as possible. What the Jets have always valued about the position they're in is flexibility: while fans saw them losing out on the #1 pick as something that would set the franchise back, the Jets saw it as an opportunity. You can't have #1 and not take the QB. At #2, they have so many options at their disposal whether it be Deshaun, Sam, or Zach. And while the Jets felt they were in a better position than any team needing a QB in the NFL given said flexibility, I don't think they truly appreciated that other teams (like Carolina and Denver) have that same flexibility playing to their benefit as well.

If the Jets were to trade #2, they'd want it done before the draft. Like weeks before. And while that was thought as the likely outcome, Watson potentially becoming available has changed team's strategies. What happens if the Panthers traded with the Jets on 4/9 only for Houston to do a 180 and make Deshaun available a week later? If other teams aren't actively plotting to trade for #2, why would Carolina bid against themselves?

I think Carolina's priority is as follows: 

  1. Trade for Deshaun Watson 
  2. Trade up to #2, select Zach Wilson 
  3. Trade up a few spots for Trey Lance 
  4. Stay put and select Mac Jones or Justin Fields 
  5. Trade for QB Sam Darnold 

It does not behoove them as much as it once did to trade up to #2 early unless the Jets are giving a discount. Likewise, it does not behoove the Jets to give a discount when they can extract FMV other ways and still sit at #2 to take a QB. So while I wasn't given percentages on what they expect to happen this past weekend, what it ultimately comes down to is value. If the Jets don't get what they perceive to be FMV for #2 but are getting it for Sam, they'll probably make the trade. If they're getting what they feel is FMV for #2, then I think they trade it and keep Sam. But the date to watch out for is April 9. They think the Jets will have resolved this by then

What’s so special about April 9?

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1 minute ago, viffer said:

And it would be even more reckless to head into the season with a rookie with one good college year and Morgan as your only QBs.

In the case of the rookie, though, you can go with the Josh McCown/mentor type backup. Everyone expects growing pains with a rookie. If they're running it back with Darnold, though, they need to have a QB capable of starting if he isn't a lot better than he has been in short order. 

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1 hour ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

...

The Jets can't pick up his fifth year option based on his play in his first 3 years. So he'd basically be playing on the final year of his contract if the Jets did keep him.

Actually they can. It's only $18m, which is dirt-cheap for a starting QB these days. If Darnold were to be traded, I'm sure the acquiring team would immediately opt for the fifth year.

I think not opting for the fifth year would limit his trade value.

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5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

What’s so special about April 9?

Not sure anything other than it being 3 weeks before the draft. The Jets will have conducted their pro-days, meetings, reviewed the medicals by then and internally that has been the soft deadline for the organization to make a decision whether they will stick with Darnold or not. So if they make that decision around that date, I would think a trade (whether it be of Darnold or #2) would happen around the same time. 

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People are really overthinking this.

As bad as the team is the #1 need by a distance is QB. Sam Darnold was the worst player on the offence last season and was quite comfortably outplayed by an over the hill Joe Flacco. You cannot possibly sell him as the starter for another year. Douglas didn't pick him and will not want to tie his fate to a previous GM's pick who's shown to be nothing but a resounding failure. If he goes with Darnold again and it predictably goes wrong he would absolutely have to be out as well, especially if Wilson performs. 

I do think the Jets f*cked Darnold. I do think he had some physical talent and that he could have played in this league but he's beyond that now. Mentally he's all over the place and plays like a genuine simpleton. He will conspire to find the wrong decision when it's the most difficult option. He's completely broken. 

Zach Wilson is the guy. He's not perfect but we had the elite of the elite prospect in our midst and threw it away to Jacksonville because Jets. Douglas can at least get his own guy and the fans get some hope again. 

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2 hours ago, RichardTodd27 said:

This statment here makes me want to puke. A game manager? Is that really what we're hoping for from Darnold?

#JustDraftJustin(orZach).

Game managers are typically QBs who are physically limited but accurate with high football IQs.  There's no game manager to be made.  There's a gunslinger with a mediocre at best arm.

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I personally don't think Sam Darnold is a bad quarterback or the clock has run out.  People, and fans in general are fairly short sited.  To put this into perspective, in 2019 when Sam Darnold had Robby Anderson he threw 19 TD's in 13 games and had roughly 3,000 yards.  Josh Allen had less/worse stats in 16 games played.  If Darnold had played a 16 game season he would have thrown 23 or 24 TD's.  This is actually better than Josh Allen who many on this blog have mentioned as a guy they "clamored" over.  Darnold in year 2 was better than Josh Allen.  Josh Allen got to throw to Steph Diggs, and he became a pro bowler, while Darnold got to throw to Chris Hogan who is now a lacrosse player and Braxton Berrios who is probably a 5th receiver on a good team.  Somehow, the consesus among Jets fan is that one season of 2020 has sealed the deal on Sam Darnold.

I don't think Darnold is the best. I don't think he's broken either.  I think he is a legitimate 65% passer with 25 TD's per year annually and 3,500 yards based on what he did his sophomore season.  That's not my opinion either, that is just statistics.  This would put him in the same category of QB as guys like Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr annually which I think is sufficient to be the starting QB.  It's really just a matter of if you can look at 2019 where he outplayed Josh Allen or look at 2020 where Allen had the advantages Darnold didn't, in which you think Darnold needs to be replaced. 

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5 hours ago, manuvsteal said:

As the title implies these are five quick reasons that I've come to the conclusion the Jets are not going to draft a quarterback (Wilson or Fields) with their top pick.

1. The Jets only have two quarterbacks on the roster right now.  Sam Darnold and Captain James Morgan.  If the Jets were to trade Darnold, and draft a quarterback one of the first things they would have done would be to secure a  veteran quarterback that knows the system.  Using the 2021 free agency tracker I notice that both CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens are still on the free agency market.  It would make sense that if the Jets were to trade Darnold, go down to one quarterback, and then draft a rookie, the first thing they would do, even prior to signing Corey Davis or Carl Lawson, would be to sign a QB that would know the probable playbook that the Jets would likely run, and a veteran that they could play if a guy like Zach WIlson gets injured.  The fact that only 7 of a possible 30 QB's have been signed speaks to the fact that they will probably run with Darnold and not look for a backup QB that could support a rookie.  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/quarterback/

2.  Defense, defense, defense.  The head coach Robert Salah has made his bones on defense.  Add to this the fact that the Jets are switching from a 3 man front to a 4 man front, and it goes without saying the Jets may prioritize the components they don't have for a 4-3 defense.  Those things include a DE that is more suited to a 4-3 as well as more speed at linebacker.  Just a logical guess here, but it would make sense that the Jets would look to target in their first 3 or 4 picks a high ceiling DE like Greg Rouseau, Kwity Paye, or Jaelan Phillips.  Although none of these guys are worth the #2 pick, it is worth noting that Rouseau who opted out of the 2020 season was ranked as a potential #1 pick at the start of 2021 after logging 15 sacks from DE in 2019. I believe he may be rated a lot higher than people think, and the Jets may look to grab some speed at linebacker in round 2 or 3.

https://247sports.com/college/miami/Article/Miami-Hurricanes-Football-2021-NFL-Draft-DE-Gregory-Rousseau-a-top-five-pick-in-another-2021-mock-draft-147182083/

3. Nick Bosa. This goes along with my second point, but Nick Bosa was the second pick in the 2019 draft and the 49ers defense was based around prioritizing getting to the QB with a consistent pass rush.  It's also logical to think that Robert Salah would want to reproduce what the 49ers did when they went tot the Super Bowl in the 2019 season.  They passed on Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in that draft and rolled with an average QB like Jimmy Garoppolo, because they knew their running game, defense, and offensive system were more important than any rookie QB.  Sam Darnold is equivalent to Jimmy G. where he is better in some areas including footwork, scrambling, throwing on the run, and worse in others like processing information.  My personal opinion, but I think it all evens out, and that Salah may view Darnold as comparable to or better than a QB that he saw get the 49ers to the Super Bowl just 2 short years ago.  

4.  George Kittle.  Logically speaking, it's not expected that the Jets copy the entire 49ers offensive and defensive scheme.  It is logical that the Jets coaching staff would want to immitate the components of San Francisco that were most successful.  That being said, George Kittle is arguably the 49ers most valuable player.  It's not just Kittle either, as players like Travis Kelse, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez have made their quarterbacks and their teams offense click for the last 20 years.  If the Jets want to prioritize getting a lot of production from the tight end position as they did with Kittle, they may be looking to trade down a pick or two and draft Kyle Pitts from Florida.  Jets fans might boo this on draft day, but when you consider Kittle's trajectory, getting a player like Pitts to do to the AFC East what Rob Gronkowski did to the Jets for a decade might help to win some games.  I'm personally a fan of Pat Freiermuth of Penn State, but would not be upset with Pitts.

https://www.ninersnation.com/2020/6/20/21296457/49ers-can-anyone-unseat-kittle-for-team-mvp-in-2020

5.  Last on my list but most important is the report that came out last week that the Jets were split on keeping or trading Sam Darnold.  In the report it stated Joe Douglas wanted to trade, but the coaching staff wanted to keep Sam Darnold.  This one is simple.  If you are the GM, and you just hired a new coach to a multi-year contract. The owner is leaning on you to get it right, and the coach says keep Darnold, the first decision you make is not going to be to go against your head coach and trade the guy he wants to keep.  The owner should defer to the GM's wishes.  The GM in turn should (most of the time) try to keep the coach happy.  We just had warring GM and coach with McCagnan and Gase, and we won't see that re-hashed less than 2 years later.   The most logical guess to me is that although Joe D. has final say, he'll want to form the roster to Robert Salah's expectations.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/new-york-jets-organization-reportedly-split-on-sam-darnold-trade-in-2021/ar-BB1eBXaD

These are my five reasons that I think the Jets won't draft a QB.  It's still early on some of these and they might still sign a free agent QB, but it seems that Joe is just playing this up to get as much trade capital for the number two pick.  Looking at past history, especially as it relates to success is a good indicator to predict future behavior.  The 49ers had a lot of success, as you can't get more successful than getting to a Super Bowl, and it stands to reason they will copy the major components that brought them that success.  Also, if they trade the 2nd pick to a team that wasn't very good such as the Falcons, it's reasonable to think that in 2022 the Falcons will still fall behind teams like the Bucs, Saints, and even Panthers in the NFC south.  If the Jets were to trade with them, and pick up a 1st rounder next year, it could be in the top 10 picks again.  For those of you that don't like Sam Darnold, there will be other top tier QB's available with the Falcons early pick should Darnold not pan out, so it's really a win- win in reality.  My guess is the #2 pick goes to the Falcons for an extra third round pick in 2021, and a 1st round pick in 2022.

Sam darnold was just rushed in no teacher he was just gettin in no watch just they thew em into the starting QB

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