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Tony Pauline: "Word was in league circles, very likely Sam Darnold is out, they're going to trade him & it'll be Zach Wilson."


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14 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

My argument is this should not be the logical  pick due to the fact he has the most red flags I can think of compared to Lance, Fields,  and Jones. Jones actually has the least amount but I just think he is a product of a loaded team and played with a WR that beat anyone they lined up in front of him. 

I just don't see how so many are saying it's  Wilson because I spoke to this guy who knows what the Jets are thinking.

Whether or not he's the best pick, or will be the best QB - I have no idea.  But, I do know that the media and talk around "league circles" seems to be that he's the best available after Lawrence.  That's my whole point - nothing to do with what's best.

As for Jones, again, I kind of felt like he had the biggest red flag, which is that he's pretty physically limited, no?

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have no idea what to make of Wilson but moving on from Darnold is a no-brainer, regardless of compensation back.

It would seem JD has mastered the ability to mislead the media. The guy may be a keeper.

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1 hour ago, More Cowbell said:

Ok, the Titanic had only one leak that destroyed  it. Feel better?

 

The sinking of the Titanic was an inside job, perpetrated by the owners as an insurance scam.

#TitanicTruther

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7 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Based on what we've seen of JD's DNA so far, I would argue that unless the trade compensation for Darnold is above fair value, the chalk outcome would be rolling with Sam and trading out of the #2...

Those are the two most likely outcomes, and not surprisingly, the two that are speculated upon the most by "insiders."

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2 hours ago, rayzor said:

These guys just constantly spew rumors to be relevant.  No way they have any clue.  Just guessing like everyone else.  They haven't even watched or spoken to the kid yet.

100%.  He even hedged before his take with "it's very likely" - he might as well as said, "I dont know my ass from my elbow but my guess is the Jets take Wilson"....and then the rest of his take from there was asinine and one sided.  

What if JD trades Sam, who suddenly explodes and Zach Wilson turns out to be a bum?

lol - it's just nauseating at this point but they have to get people to watch so I get it

 

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Oftentimes, the QBs who get picked later in the first round end up being better QBs.  Logically, it is not because they necessarily had the better skills, although the draft overweights physical talent over other factors.  I think it is oftentimes because the better teams develop and support the QBs better, and the effect that the worse teams have on the QBs picked high appears to be often permanent.   The QBs picked higher also do better when teams trade up to pick them-the talent on that team still helps to develop the QB, but as we saw with the Eagles, the effect of no/bad draft picks catches up to them.  That T JD drafted in Phila did not help either.,  

The Browns worked very hard to build a team around Mayfield, as did the Bills with Allen (but they had a better head start).  Let's see how Burrow recovers.  

So, if I am JD/Saleh/LeFleur, I would keep Darnold not as a backup, but as a interim/rehabilitated starter in a good system for him.  I think its best for everyone.   If Wilson gets Burrowed, I think the damage could be permanent.   If Darnold gets hurt, roll out Morgan.  Maybe Wilson starts later.  Darnold would be a tag and trade prospect. 

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10 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

Not really. They have been accepting calls from other teams for Sam. The other teams could be offering this info. Everyone knows that they will either keep Sam or trade him and most likely draft Zach. It's not too hard to figure out and a lot of teams are interested in trading up to grab a QB.

Maybe it's  because I don't  understand why Zach is considered the consensus #2. I'm pretty sure they will trade Sam. If they trade down it is like with Carolina, so at 8 Jones will still be available. We can probably trade down again and still get him. I don't  see him going before 20 but stranger things have happened with QB's. I wouldn't  be unhappy with Jones if we trade down and select him.

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11 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Whether or not he's the best pick, or will be the best QB - I have no idea.  But, I do know that the media and talk around "league circles" seems to be that he's the best available after Lawrence.  That's my whole point - nothing to do with what's best.

As for Jones, again, I kind of felt like he had the biggest red flag, which is that he's pretty physically limited, no?

Agree on Jones. He's  not nearly the Athlete  the others are. Not sure that even works anymore in today's NFL. 

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10 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

So you're saying unless he can 'win' in a trade he will bypass a QB that he most likely has rated higher than Sam? That's a pretty sketchy way to do business for the most important position on your team. 

1. I think it's similar to Jamal.  I think his base case is rolling with Sam unless an offer comes in higher than where he puts fair value

2. I think he has a bias for accumulating draft picks.  Some people are more comfortable being buyers (Trader Mike) and some are more comfortable as sellers (JD).  That's JMO

3. Again JMO, but I think the hiring of Saleh and LaFleur included a bunch of dialog about "fixing Sam" as a base case.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, varjet said:

Oftentimes, the QBs who get picked later in the first round end up being better QBs. 

This is unadulterated horse crap. Take out the word "oftentimes" and replace it with "rarely" and you would be correct.

Current starting QBs taken in top 12:
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Matt Ryan
Baker Mayfield
Matthew Stafford
Deshaun Watson
Justin Herbert
Tua Tagovailoa
Cam Newton
Daniel Jones
Ryan Tannehill
Carson Wentz
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff

Starting QBs taken later:
Lamar Jackson
Teddy Bridgewater
Andy Dalton
Drew Lock
Aaron Rodgers
Derek Carr
Kirk Cousins
Jalen Hurts
Jimmy Garappolo
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Dak Prescott

Thanks, but I'll take the first group. 

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btw what's the confusion over "league circles" he has contacts and every NFL team plays out scenarios for drafts that include the entire league not just their personal wish lists

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4 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

If we actually do select Wilson and trade Sam just as every media talking head is reporting, this would mean the Jets front office has more leaks than the Titanic.  

The Titanic had one leak.

Now, it was one gigantic f*cking leak, but really just one leak nonetheless.

(If this is the one leak from the Jets then it also is a big one.)

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2 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

 

Tony Pauline doesn't know crap. The word in 'league circles' is laughable. The only guy who knows if Sam will be traded is JD and possibly Salah and they're not leaking any information.

If you want to make an educated guess about Sam's future figure in the fact that has not been traded by now. That's the biggest indication that he'll be the Jets QB for 2021.

These talking heads and internet twits have zero real sources and are just looking for clicks and viewers during the next month.

Their speculation should be focused on the trade package a team will give to move up to the #2 OA pick.

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2 hours ago, King P said:

With all this Wilson talk, I'm definitely sensing a swerve coming

Yup.  It's like last year.  All the rumors were that the Jets liked LTs like Thomas, Becton and Wills..... and they fooled everyone.... by doing exactly that! lol

 

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34 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Based on what we've seen of JD's DNA so far, I would argue that unless the trade compensation for Darnold is above fair value, the chalk outcome would be rolling with Sam and trading out of the #2...

Maybe, but do not assume the value he has on that pick.   It may be be astronomical.  Which means,  you have to have a  partner wiling to pony up

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5 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

Maybe, but do not assume the value he has on that pick.   It may be be astronomical.  Which means,  you have to have a  partner wiling to pony up

if they love wilson but can't get a great deal for darnold, i still highly doubt they would keep darnold and not draft wilson b/c they won't get the trade compensation in a deal for darnold.  they'll get the best deal they can and move on.

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2 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

He’s the first guy who reported Mac was getting fired and Joe Douglas was replacing him...months before it happened.

He called Fant last year and has had a lot of Jets sources for years.

When a guy like Pauline makes those kind of calls at the very top of the food chain about changes at the GM level it means he's not just a hack who knows a couple guys on the coaching staff or maybe has a front office relationship with an underling like Phil Savage, etc.  It could mean he's plugged in a the HIGHEST levels and I'll just leave it at that.

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1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

In this case, I'm not sure we're ignoring the red flags.  They're out there and everyone's talking about them - size, injury, competition, general douchebaggery. 

 

My god.

He's perfect for us.

 

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If JD has decided to keep Darnold and his plan is to try to get max offers for the 2nd overall pick, wouldn’t it be smart for him to let “league circles” think that he’s ready (and even planning) to use that #2 pick on Wilson?

My point is that Pauline might be right about what the league thinks, AND that this is a result of JD’s plan.

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1 hour ago, DoubleDown said:

It's very likely Wilson will be the pick at #2.  When you are in position to draft an elite prospect at the most important position in the sport, and the incumbent player has been a disappointment to date, then you have to pull the trigger.  Joe Douglas did not draft Darnold, and it makes sense to start over at the position with a whole new coaching staff in town.

 

The problem with that statement is there aren't any elite QB prospects in this draft with the exception of TL. All the others have a high bust probability and should go mid to low in the 1st round.

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1 minute ago, Big_Slick said:

The problem with that statement is there aren't any elite QB prospects in this draft with the exception of TL. All the others have a high bust probability and should go mid to low in the 1st round.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

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47 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

This is unadulterated horse crap. Take out the word "oftentimes" and replace it with "rarely" and you would be correct.

Current starting QBs taken in top 12:
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Matt Ryan
Baker Mayfield
Matthew Stafford
Deshaun Watson
Justin Herbert
Tua Tagovailoa
Cam Newton
Daniel Jones
Ryan Tannehill
Carson Wentz
Sam Darnold
Jared Goff

Starting QBs taken later:
Lamar Jackson
Teddy Bridgewater
Andy Dalton
Drew Lock
Aaron Rodgers
Derek Carr
Kirk Cousins
Jalen Hurts
Jimmy Garappolo
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Dak Prescott

Thanks, but I'll take the first group. 

Narrow the first list down to QBs taken in the top 5 of the draft and not one superbowl, in fact in the last 20 years only I QB taken in the top 5 has won a superbowl. I know Tom Brady has made it difficult for anyone else to win a superbowl but it's still some statistic.

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1 hour ago, Nixhead said:

So why risk losing Mullens and get him signed now. The only reason they wouldn’t have him signed already is because they are considering keeping Darnold and drafting a QB early. 

This is a solid observation.

Signing Mullens now means the Jets essentially take the idea of drafting Wilson AND keeping Darnold off the table.  They wouldn't go into the season with Darnold, Wilson, Mullens, and Morgan.  And, if they draft Wilson AFTER having signed Mullens then that practically locks Douglas into trading Darnold for whatever he can get.  Newsflash.... Douglas doesn't trade guys for "whatever he can get."  He got more for Leo Williams than some thought, he got more for Jamal Adams than almost everyone thought he would.  If he drafts Wilson he will leave open the possibility of retaining Darnold if the offers aren't great.  In the fourth year of a rookie contract there's no significant financial incentive to let Darnold go for a lowball offer.  The Jets don't have to trade him if they take a QB at #2.

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4 hours ago, rayzor said:

These guys just constantly spew rumors to be relevant.  No way they have any clue.  Just guessing like everyone else.  They haven't even watched or spoken to the kid yet.

You are 100% correct!!!

While it might be totally true and logical that the Jets draft Zach Wilson -- the idea that "league circles" knowing anything more than the folks on this board is laughable!  

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