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Tony Pauline: "Word was in league circles, very likely Sam Darnold is out, they're going to trade him & it'll be Zach Wilson."


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have no idea what to make of Wilson but moving on from Darnold is a no-brainer, regardless of compensation back.

It would seem JD has mastered the ability to mislead the media. The guy may be a keeper.

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1 hour ago, BroadwayRay said:

This is unadulterated horse crap. Take out the word "oftentimes" and replace it with "rarely" and you would be correct.

Current starting QBs taken in top 12:
Patrick Mahomes-outside of top 5-  Good team traded up.
Josh Allen-outside of top 5.  Rising team traded up.,
Joe Burrow-number 1 and on the way to being crippled.
Kyler Murray-number 1-team aggressively building around him.
Matt Ryan-top 5.  
Baker Mayfield-number 1.  Browns building around him aggressively and smartly.
Matthew Stafford-number 1.  One playoff appearance.  
Deshaun Watson-outside of top 10.  Texans had a good roster before they ruined it.
Justin Herbert-outside of top 5.  Chargers had a good roster.  Alot better than the Jets' 2018-2020.
Tua Tagovailoa-top 5.  Jury still out. 
Cam Newton-number 1.  
Daniel Jones-outside of top 5.  He is doing ok.
Ryan Tannehill-outside of top 5.  Gase tried to ruin him.  
Carson Wentz-Eagles traded up for him and developed a team for him.
Sam Darnold-Jets had a terrible roster and tried to ruin him.
Jared Goff-Rams traded up. 

Starting QBs taken later:
Lamar Jackson-Good team made him MVP.
Teddy Bridgewater
Andy Dalton
Drew Lock
Aaron Rodgers-Good team made him MVP.
Derek Carr-Raiders were good for awhile,.  
Kirk Cousins
Jalen Hurts
Jimmy Garappolo-49ers built around him.
Russell Wilson-great pick, Seahawks figured out how to draft.
Tom Brady-o comment.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Dak Prescott-great pick, great roster.  

Thanks, but I'll take the first group. 

I hear you.  See above.   When I said "higher" I meant to top 3-5.  

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2 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

It's very likely Wilson will be the pick at #2.  When you are in position to draft an elite prospect at the most important position in the sport, and the incumbent player has been a disappointment to date, then you have to pull the trigger.  Joe Douglas did not draft Darnold, and it makes sense to start over at the position with a whole new coaching staff in town.

The bigger question is whether Darnold gets traded.  I believe that Douglas has set a price on Darnold, it's relatively high, and he's not going to trade him just for the sake of trading him.  Darnold and the rookie can co-exist on the roster for one year, and in many ways it makes sense to ease the rookie in and not throw him into the fire from day 1.  Darnold can and will be a good bridge quarterback.  He's young, cheap, experienced, and a good soldier.  There is enough upside potential there to not trade him away for peanuts.

This is what a few us have advocated for quite awhile now! @SAR I

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the more i see this stuff the more i dont believe they have inside sources

its really just common sense. what would you do if your JD?

your job is on the line. you dont have Adam Gase to take the blame anymore.

and before you tell my about what poor Sam didnt have, Joe Burrow was running for his life, and looked 10 times better than Sam.

Arizona knew after one year Rosen wasnt there guy. so they draft Murray. and they didnt keep him to compete with Murray like so many of you want to do with Sam and Wilson. 

there was no.......Oh what if Murray gets hurt. .what will we do??? ......maybe Rosen can play well and raise his trade value ...... lets just have them fight it out and we keep the winner.....NO! your all in on the new guy, and the old guy is out. even if you dont get what you want in a trade. 

whats that saying?

fool me once shame on you

fool me twice shame on me

well whats the saying for...

fool me 4 times? .... fire me now cause im a friggin idiot?

guaranteed Sam is gone. no way JD risks his job on a 4th year of Sam...

i wouldnt ....would you?

 

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24 minutes ago, varjet said:

I hear you.  See above.   When I said "higher" I meant to top 3-5.  

Even with that caveat, the statement is inaccurate. When you look at the total the number of QBs selected outside the top 5 over, lets say the past 20 years, and compare it to the actual number good QBs that resulted, the chances of hitting on the picks are extremely low. It's like winning the lottery. 

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Pauline was the first to break the troubles brewing between Big Mac and Gase. Don’t know what else he’s been right on, but he broke that news in the early stages of FA or almost a month before The Mac Attack got canned.

Ill give him the benefit of the doubt and assume this is legit news.

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35 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

Tony Pauline is the anti source. He is basically a message board poster.

But he was spot on about Kyle Wilson being the next Revis and Jace Amaro being the next Gronk

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28 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

There has been a lot of speculation that the Jets would have traded Darnold by now if they were going QB at #2.  As teams headed into FA, signed QBs, made trades and we watched everyone from Goff, Fitzpatrick and Stafford to Trubisky and Dalton move teams the idea was that the Jets were losing possible landing spots for Sam as teams made their QB moves.  While it's true the Jets may have lost some number of potential trade partners I simply think there is no way that Douglas was going to trade Darnold prior to Wilson's full evaluation (Pro Day, measurements, etc.) being completed.  The second he would have traded Darnold he would have pigeon-holed himself into taking a QB at #2.  So what if Wilson flopped in the eval process, what if Douglas doesn't think Fields is a fit for the O and guys like Lance and Jones aren't legit upgrades to Sam???   Douglas would have screwed himself.

If the price of completing a full eval on Wilson and ensuring that he's the guy is something like getting a 3rd instead of a 2nd for Darnold then I'm okay with that.  The difference in value between those two picks is essentially the insurance paid for taking the time to increase your level of conviction about Wilson from say a 70% confidence factor to an 80% confidence factor.

I agree. 

There is also recent precedent for this appraoch. For example, the Cardinals didn't trade Rosen until draft weekend. 

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Pauline continued, “That’s why they signed Corey Davis. Because he’s a good route runner, he knows how to separate. Yards after the catch. When you want yards after the catch, it’s usually because your quarterback can’t throw the ball 55 yards down the field, which Zach Wilson can’t.”

Wait what? If anything this means we're keeping Darnold.

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1 minute ago, Welp said:

Wait what?

There was a debate about this toward the end of the podcast, if you go and watch it. Pauline said he thinks Wilson can actually throw that far, but not with the same velocity as guys like Fields and Lance. He said Wilson's strong points are field vision, decision making and accuracy. In other words, a perfect fit for the West Coast offense.

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Pauline continued, “That’s why they signed Corey Davis. Because he’s a good route runner, he knows how to separate. Yards after the catch. When you want yards after the catch, it’s usually because your quarterback can’t throw the ball 55 yards down the field, which Zach Wilson can’t.”
Wait what? If anything this means we're keeping Darnold.


Zach Wilson has an ok arm when the pocket is clean. He isnt Josh Allen though. You guys really need to get realistic with what this kid is.


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Tony Pauline can be accurately reporting correctly what his sources tell him.

It doesn't mean that his sources are correct.

It could be a smokescreen - either by his sources directly and / or the Jets indirectly.

But we will only know for sure when something actually happens.

 

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7 minutes ago, football guy said:

It's going to be the most anxious few weeks for some Jets fans, but I can assure you, there has been no decision made, and if it has, only one person knows at this point and that's Joe Douglas. 

"League circles" are usually people hearing things from agents. When Zach Wilson was interviewing representation, he had said he expected to get drafted #2 by the Jets... this was on 12/28/2020. His agents have been saying the same since. Couple that with sentiment in scouting circles that he's worthy of going #2, and pro personnel circles who see that Sam Darnold is at the least available (which means they're not committed to him), and they're jumping to a conclusion that Zach Wilson will be drafted by the Jets. Nothing coming from the Jets... just speculation by others outside the organization. 

Here is the timeline as I understand it: 

  • Jets will attend Zach Wilson's pro-day. His performance will help confirm their evaluation of him, and allow them to finalize his on-the-field grade. 
  • They will send Dr. Brad DeWeese and Dave Zuffelato to LA for Zach Wilson's in-person medical exam (among others) the week after. 
  • While they await final medical info, the front office and scouts will shift towards finalizing the board and strategizing for the draft. They will also begin putting out feelers to teams on what they can get for Sam Darnold and what they can get for #2 to crystalize their markets. 
  • After receiving all info on Wilson, they will compare his evaluation to their evaluation of Darnold, and will aim to come to a consensus what direction they are favoring. 
  • If the offers are right, they'll look to execute a trade before the draft, whether it be trading #2 or Sam. 

So they’re just skipping Fields all together next week?

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2 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

It's very likely Wilson will be the pick at #2.  When you are in position to draft an elite prospect at the most important position in the sport, and the incumbent player has been a disappointment to date, then you have to pull the trigger.  Joe Douglas did not draft Darnold, and it makes sense to start over at the position with a whole new coaching staff in town.

The bigger question is whether Darnold gets traded.  I believe that Douglas has set a price on Darnold, it's relatively high, and he's not going to trade him just for the sake of trading him.  Darnold and the rookie can co-exist on the roster for one year, and in many ways it makes sense to ease the rookie in and not throw him into the fire from day 1.  Darnold can and will be a good bridge quarterback.  He's young, cheap, experienced, and a good soldier.  There is enough upside potential there to not trade him away for peanuts.

how are you not throwing Zach in the fire when you have him competing with Sam for the starting job? 

Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Murray, Burrow....all had bridges....but they weren't a threat to their getting the team somewhere during the season. everybody knew who the QB of the future was.

even Jax is going to trade Minshew cause they dont want any headaches if Trevor starts out slow and Minshew outplays him. 

nobody drafts a QB in the top 5 or 10 and keeps there other top 5 or 10 QB from 3 years ago on the roster. there must be a reason nobody does this? they always have a vet to be a mentor or a young guy who doesnt have a chance to start. they dont keep there FQB from 6 months ago to compete.

 if Sam stays. half this fan base want to keep him, think hes good enough. 

what if Sam plays well? you got to bench him to see what Wilson got. no controversy there? 

what a headache it will be when the media gets involved. they will torture Saleh from day 1 of training camp with questions about who the QB is. and the players too. 

if you want a bridge bring in a nobody like Mullins or something. somebody that everyone knows when Zach is ready its his team. just like everyone else did. you cant guarantee Zach the job if Sam is here. if Mullins plays well he still knows its Zachs team sometime during the season.

your right, Sam is a good guy. but its not him whos going to start sh*t. from day 1 this will be the biggest local sports story in the media capital in the world. and nobody knows how this will affect Zach. well the NFL knows since no team does this. 

but dont worry, if JD drafts Zach, that will be HIS QB. he wont care about Sam. he will do anything to make sure HIS QB succeeds. if Sam stays he could make JDs QB LOOK BAD.  

 

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2 minutes ago, football guy said:

I don't think they'll skip. They'll certainly have a presence there. I've heard Joe Douglas will be at the Florida pro-day. Either way they'll have some sort of presence there, and that honestly may be the place where guys in the FO start getting some real face-to-face time with opposing execs to start discussing market for #2/Sam.  

Rather see Pitts up close and personal then Fields. Makes sense.
Trade down, Pitts, lock it in. 

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1 hour ago, doitny said:

what would you do if your JD?

your job is on the line. you dont have Adam Gase to take the blame anymore.

 

There is no way that JD's job is on the line no matter what he does or how it turns out next year.

His biggest risk is trading Sam and taking a QB at #2 OA and having that QB bust and have Sam go on to have success with another team.

Even with the worst case senario JD's here for at least another three years. Woody will not fire him with more than three years left on his six year contract. 

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

There has been a lot of speculation that the Jets would have traded Darnold by now if they were going QB at #2.  As teams headed into FA, signed QBs, made trades and we watched everyone from Goff, Fitzpatrick and Stafford to Trubisky and Dalton move teams the idea was that the Jets were losing possible landing spots for Sam as teams made their QB moves.  While it's true the Jets may have lost some number of potential trade partners I simply think there is no way that Douglas was going to trade Darnold prior to Wilson's full evaluation (Pro Day, measurements, etc.) being completed.  The second he would have traded Darnold he would have pigeon-holed himself into taking a QB at #2.  So what if Wilson flopped in the eval process, what if Douglas doesn't think Fields is a fit for the O and guys like Lance and Jones aren't legit upgrades to Sam???   Douglas would have screwed himself.

If the price of completing a full eval on Wilson and ensuring that he's the guy is something like getting a 3rd instead of a 2nd for Darnold then I'm okay with that.  The difference in value between those two picks is essentially the insurance paid for taking the time to increase your level of conviction about Wilson from say a 70% confidence factor to an 80% confidence factor.

Which is why I'd been advocating for bringing in an actual, competent veteran QB.  Honestly, if you don't like Wilson, bring in Alex Smith, trade out of two AND trade Darnold.

This year alone, you probably are getting a high first, and two 2nds (if Darnold gets you a 2), plus another 1 next year.

Build a strong roster around a veteran who you know what you're getting from, and then revisit QB next year.

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18 minutes ago, football guy said:

I don't think they'll skip. They'll certainly have a presence there. I've heard Joe Douglas will be at the Florida pro-day. Either way they'll have some sort of presence there, and that honestly may be the place where guys in the FO start getting some real face-to-face time with opposing execs to start discussing market for #2/Sam.  

Arent they on different days?  I think it's like the 30th/31st, accordingly so idk, maybe he doesnt want to travel like that but I find it bizarre if he's considering QB at #2 that he's going to let someone else go on his behalf.  I would say that puts the nail in the coffin he's not interested in Fields which is concerning but also just thinking about the decision and where you need to make confirmation and it's just weird he wouldnt want to see the QB.  Like, what do the Gators have that you need in person confirmation?

 

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11 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Which is why I'd been advocating for bringing in an actual, competent veteran QB.  Honestly, if you don't like Wilson, bring in Alex Smith, trade out of two AND trade Darnold.

This year alone, you probably are getting a high first, and two 2nds (if Darnold gets you a 2), plus another 1 next year.

Build a strong roster around a veteran who you know what you're getting from, and then revisit QB next year.

I'd be fine with that too....Bridgewater would be my preference though.

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27 minutes ago, football guy said:

I don't think they'll skip. They'll certainly have a presence there. I've heard Joe Douglas will be at the Florida pro-day. Either way they'll have some sort of presence there, and that honestly may be the place where guys in the FO start getting some real face-to-face time with opposing execs to start discussing market for #2/Sam.  

I just need the decision to be made soon so everyone can settle down  . Not going to lie ... I’ll be extremely disappointed if they roll with Sam over Wilson .

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

 I simply think there is no way that Douglas was going to trade Darnold prior to Wilson's full evaluation (Pro Day, measurements, etc.) being completed. 

 

I think JD's evaluation is already complete and it's based on Wilson's performance through out his career. He's watched film and broken down Wilson's every play in college and even HS.

A carefully scripted pro day can only alter Wilson's evaluation if he bombs it. A top level QB prospect is expected to nail these practice workout sessions. Same goes for the white board questions, these guys are going to be coached up and know what to expect. 

JD attending Wilson's pro day is more about upping the trade package for the #2 OA pick than deciding whether to draft him and trade Sam.

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18 minutes ago, JiF said:

Arent they on different days?  I think it's like the 30th/31st, accordingly so idk, maybe he doesnt want to travel like that but I find it bizarre if he's considering QB at #2 that he's going to let someone else go on his behalf.  I would say that puts the nail in the coffin he's not interested in Fields which is concerning but also just thinking about the decision and where you need to make confirmation and it's just weird he wouldnt want to see the QB.  Like, what do the Gators have that you need in person confirmation?

 

Joe Douglas could me lose me entirely within this conversation. Going with Wilson/over trading back, not even giving Fields the time of day because he went to Florida to watch Toney whom he wants to take at 23, or even 34. 

I would cash out on Joe Douglas at the exact moment. 

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