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The Douglas Decision: Wilson vs this—


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4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Or maybe Carolina sees where the bar has been set and says we'll wait for Watson to be dealt

The bigger point is the 49rs could have offered that trade to the Jets and if the Jets were interested in moving down they'd still be negotiating for the much more valuable #2.  Think its pretty obvious the Jets are standing pat and taking a QB.  

 

 The msg for the past 6 weeks or so has never deviated. Jets want to see prodays, and are still evaluating their options. 

Nothings changed cause SF and MIA jumped the gun. Jets still gonna do prodays. still evaluating options. Still would prefer to stay in top 10. Still gonna listen to CAR

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They could have 50 picks over the next 3 years but if the QB sucks it won’t matter. I rather not pass up on Wilson and just use the same haul the Niners used to move up for a QB next year. 

We have the worst starting QB in football. Go and get the best one.

The 49ers who have on roster a better QB than ours, was supposedly so high on Darnold, passed on Sam, gave up more to get a rookie QB in this draft class where we have the pick of the litter after Law

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3 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

would you do it? cause im all on the wilson hype train and leaning towards no. 

I take that deal before Carolina has a chance to change their mind, but I’m skittish about all of the QBs this year. 

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27 minutes ago, slats said:

What if Wilson doesn’t live up to the hype, though? 
 
Gonna be a tough call for JD if Carolina offers the #8, their second this year, and firsts in 2022 & 2023. Or maybe not. But that’s where the price is about now. 

Everyone says we are going to run the Shanahan system.   Shanahan just gave up 3X what they could have got Sam for to get sloppy seconds.  I don't think there is any doubt if Shananhan likes Lance, Fields and Jones better than Darnold he probably is drooling over Wilson.  

We're running Shanahan's O.  Sam doesn't know it and Shanahan himself doesn't like Sam better than the guys ranked below Wilson.  At this point, taking Wilson is pretty much a no brainer.  He looks great and passing on him would start to look like passing on Marino.

Namath was damaged goods.  He's still the only elite NFL QB we ever drafted.  

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45 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I’d say Fields too, but that will just derail the question. 

What you’re seeing below could be the Jets if they trade back (more or less). Are you all that set on Wilson. Put your GM cap on for a moment and ruminate. 

 

265C3F81-AB96-4C08-8532-DB4BC83C244E.jpeg

This is wrong. They dealt one of those 2022 1st round picks to Philly

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5 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 The msg for the past 6 weeks or so has never deviated. Jets want to see prodays, and are still evaluating their options. 

Nothings changed cause SF and MIA jumped the gun. Jets still gonna do prodays. still evaluating options. Still would prefer to stay in top 10. Still gonna listen to CAR

If they were interested in trading, they wouldnt be in the mix for a QB, would mean they were fine going another year with Darnold.

You know the Jets had to be in the mix for a phone call from Lynch for the 2nd.  I mean this is the criticism I always read here, Macc traded up without a specific QB in mind.  Id assume Lynch would be happy with Fields, elated with Wilson.

I'd assume if he wanted Fields he would have waited for his pro day, if he thought he cold get Wilson, he would made the trade after his pro day.  Im thinking he wants the only QB he saw throw before making the deal.  Lance, unless he shocks the world and picks Jones.

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Eventually you need a QB.  I know it's inconvenient but it's a fact of the sport. 

Passing on ZW now means you'll have to take one next year - and in all likelihood you have to trade up to get one...giving back all the picks you just gained.

 

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1 minute ago, Doggin94it said:

This is wrong. They dealt one of those 2022 1st round picks to Philly

Thank you for the 8899989th time FOR F.S. 

I didn’t draw up the fcking pick and at  one time that was accurate. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Everyone says we are going to run the Shanahan system.   Shanahan just gave up 3X what they could have got Sam for to get sloppy seconds.  I don't think there is any doubt if Shananhan likes Lance, Fields and Jones better than Darnold he probably is drooling over Wilson.  

We're running Shanahan's O.  Sam doesn't know it and Shanahan himself doesn't like Sam better than the guys ranked below Wilson.  At this point, taking Wilson is pretty much a no brainer.  He looks great and passing on him would start to look like passing on Marino.

Namath was damaged goods.  He's still the only elite NFL QB we ever drafted.  

It doesn’t matter what SF decided to do. I don’t blame them for preferring to trade for a QB on a rookie deal over a QB they’d have to start paying next year. For the Jets, they don’t have to give up anything for Darnold - he’s already on the team. It’s only a matter of how much they like their favorite QB in the draft vs. what they can get in a trade for the #2 pick. That didn’t change today. Darnold is kinda inconsequential. If he works out, great! If not -and they make the trade down- the team will have five first round picks over 2022 and 2023 to help them solve the QB issue next season. If Darnold were to suck as much as the snark-fest on this board seems to believe, they probably wouldn’t have to trade up too far. 

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

It doesn’t matter what SF decided to do. I don’t blame them for preferring to trade for a QB on a rookie deal over a QB they’d have to start paying next year. For the Jets, they don’t have to give up anything for Darnold - he’s already on the team. It’s only a matter of how much they like their favorite QB in the draft vs. what they can get in a trade for the #2 pick. That didn’t change today. Darnold is kinda inconsequential. If he works out, great! If not -and they make the trade down- the team will have five first round picks over 2022 and 2023 to help them solve the QB issue next season. If Darnold were to suck as much as the snark-fest on this board seems to believe, they probably wouldn’t have to trade up too far. 

Don't have to start paying Darnold to the year after next and based on what Winston and Trubisky signed for he's probably not going to break the bank.

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40 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I don’t see that. I see a team that doesn’t feel any pressure to do anything. Zero. They have the pick. They know their options. It’s the fans who are impatient. What’s the absolute worst case scenario? You have no trade partners and you have take Wilson at 2. ...hardly a reason to rush through the process. 

Well then you also see a team that passed on 3 ones and a third for a prayer between now and the draft minus one team who was willing to trade.  I cant see how if the Jets were approached, and damn sure they were, that they turned the solid trade offer.  They do know their options, and now theres one less option out there.  Theres plenty of incentive to make the deal today.  

And pretty much no reason to wait

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23 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

There are no routes that have no risk. Eventually he's got to draft a QB.

If he does it this year, and it doesn't pan out, Douglas gets this swing & a miss out of the way. Just from a job longevity standpoint, Douglas has a long enough contract. So if he takes a swing now, then even if he misses (just say it's Wilson) I'd say there's a strong chance he gets a second swing at it 2-3 years later. Outside of this #2 pick he's still got enough draft pick resources to show he's a good drafter. 

If he waits another year - or if Darnold or Darnold's backup look barely good enough to return in 2022 and then flop, putting this off 2 years - while 2 or more QBs he passed on are now top 5-10 passers, he may never get that opportunity to draft his own QB. Or at best, he only gets one crack at something that certainly doesn't carry a 100% success rate. Then someone else comes in to replace him, promising Woody he'll correct this grave GM error, and says he'll save the day using extra 1st round picks Douglas accumulated & cap space he hoarded. 

If trading down, sure Douglas may be building up a good young core, assuming these picks mostly pan out, but they're unlikely to reach their peaks as rookies or 2nd year players & the team could still stink on ice, while the team still is in last place in the division yet again. Then the QB he takes later may be a worse prospect than any he's got access to this year and that's who he bets his career on instead. 

In the end it'll just depend on guessing right at QB more than what other picks he could've had. If he guesses right on Wilson (or Fields or whomever) then come contract extension time no one's going to remind Woody about maybe the extra pick #24 he didn't get in 2022 (a year when he already had 2 #1 picks as it is). 

another great post. i didnt even think about if JD picks a QB now he could get another swing in 2-3 years. 

good point.

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the jets need to worry about the jets.  sure it looks like the doltfins will have quite a bit of draft firepower in the next few drafts but they still have to make good picks and hope the niners fall on their faces.

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I respect what Miami has done, but here is the counterargument:
 

If Wilson ends up being considerably better than Tua, I’d still rather be us. And regardless of what Wilson becomes, if Tua doesn’t pan out, the Dolphins will be moving a number of those picks to draft a QB anyway. 
 

If Tua ends up being good, it’s obviously a home run for Miami. 

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56 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I’d say Fields too, but that will just derail the question. 

What you’re seeing below could be the Jets if they trade back (more or less). Are you all that set on Wilson. Put your GM cap on for a moment and ruminate. 

 

265C3F81-AB96-4C08-8532-DB4BC83C244E.jpeg

Paradis

With all due respect, JD himself has told you what he was likely to do. He said in his very first press conference that QB is the most important thing on a football team. The Jets realistically do not have a QB.

But here is the thing: The Jets could have done that. With the relationships between the teams it is almost certain that the Jets were offered that and maybe other trades already.

And they chose Wilson. A true franchise QB is worth more than the extra picks and it is not like the Jets are pick starved.

In fact if you look at your chart the Jets still have 1 1s. and 2nd and 2 3rds this year, so they are essentially just like a low 4th more than the Jets this year and next year the Jets are slightly better.

So in essence you are saying you would pass on Wilson for a 1st in 2023 and a fourth this year. Not going to happen. Because of Adams the Jets already have a lot of draft capital outside of #2. And they can likely get a 3rd for Sam at minimum. So even right now the situations are not that much different.

Wilson silenced all the knocks on him today. He is not small. He does not have small hands. He is in great shape and solid. And he showed that the skills he has matches his tape.

The Jets may have made that trade today instead of Mia if they had not decided on Wilson. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Don't have to start paying Darnold to the year after next and based on what Winston and Trubisky signed for he's probably not going to break the bank.

Next year will be $18.8M for anyone who picks up the option. Inexpensive for a starting QB, but not rookie contract cheap. 

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10 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Don't have to start paying Darnold to the year after next and based on what Winston and Trubisky signed for he's probably not going to break the bank.

And if you dont pay him this May, he can walk

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

Next year will be $18.8M for anyone who picks up the option. Inexpensive for a starting QB, but not rookie contract cheap. 

That's only partial true.  If your rookie turns into a bust they carry dead cap hits around 25 million in year 2 and 18 in year 3.   If you trade for Darnold you can pick up the option and yes you're paying more but his sunk cost is much less if he bombs out.  Plus you haven't traded away your future picks and his cost up front in terms of value is way less. 

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4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And if you dont pay him this May, he can walk

No you make a deal with him short term or exercise the option for a 5th year.  

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2 minutes ago, Biggs said:

That's only partial true.  If your rookie turns into a bust they carry dead cap hits around 25 million in year 2 and 18 in year 3.   If you trade for Darnold you can pick up the option and yes you're paying more but his sunk cost is much less if he bombs out.  Plus you haven't traded away your future picks and his cost up front in terms of value is way less. 

Lol, so now you’re making the case to hold onto Darnold rather than take a QB #2? Cool! 

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1 hour ago, Tranquilo said:

They could have 50 picks over the next 3 years but if the QB sucks it won’t matter. I rather not pass up on Wilson and just use the same haul the Niners used to move up for a QB next year. 

Yeah lets load up on pics. Idzik proved it isn't necessarily a winning strategy. PASS!

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

I’d say Fields too, but that will just derail the question. 

What you’re seeing below could be the Jets if they trade back (more or less). Are you all that set on Wilson. Put your GM cap on for a moment and ruminate. 

 

265C3F81-AB96-4C08-8532-DB4BC83C244E.jpeg

They traded a 2022 first rder to move up to 6    Id think that leaves them with one.

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Paradis

Different way to look at it:

San Francisco with a better QB than Sam, thought that the #3 QB behind Lawrence and Wilson was so good that they trade 2 future firsts and a third to get that QB. They are not doing that trade unless they are convinced he can be a franchise guy, so what does that say about Wilson and Lawrence?  I mean seriously. You don't like Wilson, fine. But at this point it is not hive mentality and hype. The NFL believes these QBs are just that good.

They could all suck. It is the way of the NFL and Mond could win up a HOF'er. But you have to evaluate and act,

 

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Just now, Tranquilo said:

It seems like the Niners knew we settled on Wilson so no real trade offers 

Thanks, there's so much to read here.

So it's a done deal, Wilson?   Go Jets.

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Just now, slats said:

Lol, so now you’re making the case to hold onto Darnold rather than take a QB #2? Cool! 

No I think it's clear Shanahan thinks he sucks and we want to run Shanahan's system.   I think Sam's value is lower today than it was before the SF trade.  I think we should take Wilson and I'm not convinced Douglas will because of how valuable the 2 pick is and how low Sams value is.  We don't have to give up anything to keep Sam.  Douglas probably likes that a lot.  

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3 minutes ago, Ken Schroy said:

Yeah lets load up on pics. Idzik proved it isn't necessarily a winning strategy. PASS!

The only thing Idzik proved was that he was a doddering dotard. 

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22 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Don't have to start paying Darnold to the year after next and based on what Winston and Trubisky signed for he's probably not going to break the bank.

no

Darnold has at least one more year remaining on his contract

With the 2021 offseason kicking into gear, the Jets have a tough decision to make regarding Sam Darnold and his contract. As part of all rookie contracts, teams have the option to exercise a fifth-year. The deadline for that decision with Darnold is May 3rd, 2021.

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1 minute ago, dcJet said:

Thanks, there's so much to read here.

So it's a done deal, Wilson?   Go Jets.

Nothing confirmed for sure but what we do know according to Schefter is that the Niners spoke to every other team in the top 5 except the Jags and Jets. So just a bit speculation and inference. 

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