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My take on the Jets QB situation....


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Guys.. It's over.  They're trading Sam and taking Wilson.   It really is time for the we don't need a good QB  crowd to just get on board with the idea that Zach Wilson will be the pick at 2

How many times can the same thread be open.  My goodness this is painful.

Sam is cheap. We have lots of cap. Sam should be retained for 2021. If we draft Wilson, he should have to earn the #1 job by beating out Sam. IF Wilson is everything folks think, a

1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

If this is the case then you pick up the 5th year option. If he performs well you can go into ‘22 and trade a more valuable Sammy or re-sign him to a new LT deal.

Well, correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't he still have year 4 of Sammys rookie deal to evaluate him on? Meaning, he only has to commit to Sammy on a long term deal after 2021?

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3 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

Well, correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't he still have year 4 of Sammys rookie deal to evaluate him on? Meaning, he only has to commit to Sammy on a long term deal after 2021?

Correct, but if they want to exercise the 5th year option it needs to be done a few days after draft (May 3?) or the fifth year is automatically voided. 

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17 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

Well, correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't he still have year 4 of Sammys rookie deal to evaluate him on? Meaning, he only has to commit to Sammy on a long term deal after 2021?

Yes, but IIRC Sammys 5th year option = $19m. If he becomes FA in ‘22 after playing well will be much more and you lose exclusivity on negotiations 

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14 minutes ago, Rob Moore said:

Correct, but if they want to exercise the 5th year option it needs to be done a few days after draft (May 3?) or the fifth year is automatically voided. 

The 5th year option is only 18M and this years salary is 6M, so you get him for 25M for two years. Not a bad deal if JD and Salah thinks Sam will be good with a decent team around him.

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1 hour ago, NYJ1 said:

As Greenbean recently said on one of his podcasts.... "Nothing escapes One Jets Drive unless Joe Douglas wants it to". Now take into account the article mentioning that Joe Douglas prefers to draft Zach Wilson but the coaching staff prefers keeping Sammy. That's an intentional smokescreen by design. With that said, my belief is JD is trying to build up the asking price for the 2nd overall pick? He's going to do what his HC wants to do. If Saleh wants Sammy JD will oblige because he trusts the guy he puts in his employ. JD will go through all of the theatrics so he can get the best price possible for the 2nd overall pick. 

So draft night, or possibly just prior, JD trades down from 2 and collects a kings ransom in the process. From there he fills a lot of need areas, gives Sammy the supporting cast he's always deserved, and it's the Robert Saleh/Sammy Darnold show in 2021.....

I agree with you except for the timing.  It has to be after the first pick is announced.  He will want to be 100% sure that the Jags take Lawrence.  Then we will know.

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4 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

The 5th year option is only 18M and this years salary is 6M, so you get him for 25M for two years. Not a bad deal if JD and Salah thinks Sam will be good with a decent team around him.

Absolutely.  And a trade down means that in theory many of our impactful players should be on cheap rookie deals...making Sam’s cap numbers (and potential extension numbers if we get that far) even more palatable .

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40 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

As Greenbean recently said on one of his podcasts.... "Nothing escapes One Jets Drive unless Joe Douglas wants it to". Now take into account the article mentioning that Joe Douglas prefers to draft Zach Wilson but the coaching staff prefers keeping Sammy. That's an intentional smokescreen by design. With that said, my belief is JD is trying to build up the asking price for the 2nd overall pick? He's going to do what his HC wants to do. If Saleh wants Sammy JD will oblige because he trusts the guy he puts in his employ. JD will go through all of the theatrics so he can get the best price possible for the 2nd overall pick. 

So draft night, or possibly just prior, JD trades down from 2 and collects a kings ransom in the process. From there he fills a lot of need areas, gives Sammy the supporting cast he's always deserved, and it's the Robert Saleh/Sammy Darnold show in 2021.....

I'd like to give you my take. But I will go and start another thread first.

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5 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Does not really make any sense. Look the 49ers and Jets watched Wilson together. John Lynch,, Shanahan and Saleh are still really close and JD and Howie Roseman are best friends. The Eagles wanted to trade up to 3 but only for Wilson. The 49ers "did not inquire" about #2. Even in the NFL front office executives are not out to screw over their friends so the reality is that the 49ers and Eagles KNOW that Wilson will not be there. JD runs a tighter ship than most but let's face it the Jets do not really have to be coy about taking Wilson, nothing other than JAX taking Wilson can prevent it, and if that happens I think the Jets are happy with Lawrence.

The trades also mysteriously happened shorty after Wilson's measurables were confirmed.

I get there there is a group that hate Wilson and want to cling to any thread of hope Wilson is not the pick but at this point it is just not reality. There is like a 99.99% chance the Jets take Wilson. Only a failed physical would change that.

Couple other things: Jeremiah is good friends with JD. If you listen to the way he discusses the 2nd pick and the Jets it really seems he knows what we are going to do. Also, Saleh and JD had gigantic goofy smiles after the pro day.

Literally everything points to Wilson and nothing but delusion points to anything else.  

Yep, just posted the same..agree

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20 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Does not really make any sense. Look the 49ers and Jets watched Wilson together. John Lynch,, Shanahan and Saleh are still really close and JD and Howie Roseman are best friends. The Eagles wanted to trade up to 3 but only for Wilson. The 49ers "did not inquire" about #2. Even in the NFL front office executives are not out to screw over their friends so the reality is that the 49ers and Eagles KNOW that Wilson will not be there. JD runs a tighter ship than most but let's face it the Jets do not really have to be coy about taking Wilson, nothing other than JAX taking Wilson can prevent it, and if that happens I think the Jets are happy with Lawrence.

The trades also mysteriously happened shorty after Wilson's measurables were confirmed.

I get there there is a group that hate Wilson and want to cling to any thread of hope Wilson is not the pick but at this point it is just not reality. There is like a 99.99% chance the Jets take Wilson. Only a failed physical would change that.

Couple other things: Jeremiah is good friends with JD. If you listen to the way he discusses the 2nd pick and the Jets it really seems he knows what we are going to do. Also, Saleh and JD had gigantic goofy smiles after the pro day.

Literally everything points to Wilson and nothing but delusion points to anything else.  

This is such an interesting point and I hadn't thought of it....Makes complete sense.

Basically JD saw the measurable, which was the last box he needed to check...And then let those guys know he was locked in.

 

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18 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Sam is cheap.

We have lots of cap.

Sam should be retained for 2021.

If we draft Wilson, he should have to earn the #1 job by beating out Sam.

IF Wilson is everything folks think, and Sam sucks like most of us think, it'll work itself out, and we get a decent enough backup for one year.

Sam isn't worth much in trade, no one is trading for him to start for them, no one.

Sam may not even be expensive to resign, because no one is signing him to start either.  

There is little loss to retaining Sam, and making Wilson beat him out.

If you don't think Wilson can beat out Sam......you don't really want Wilson, do you?

This may play out this way, but it will be less about Sam competing with Wilson, and more about not being able to get enough value for Sam. We would still need a backup qb for yr, and at 4.5 mill, wouldn’t be the worse thing...anyone else decent would likely cost similar $$

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1 hour ago, Rob Moore said:

Correct, but if they want to exercise the 5th year option it needs to be done a few days after draft (May 3?) or the fifth year is automatically voided. 

If we keep Sam w/o exercising the option and he plays well enough to earn a larger contact then it's a win-win.  It's the 2nd best case scenario (the 1st being we extend him and he plays well) which is fine with me since I doubt he does play that well if we keep him.  

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46 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

The 5th year option is only 18M and this years salary is 6M, so you get him for 25M for two years. Not a bad deal if JD and Salah thinks Sam will be good with a decent team around him.

Why waste the 18M?  Let Sam prove it, then sign him for the 25M franchise price.

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1 hour ago, NYJ1 said:

As Greenbean recently said on one of his podcasts.... "Nothing escapes One Jets Drive unless Joe Douglas wants it to". Now take into account the article mentioning that Joe Douglas prefers to draft Zach Wilson but the coaching staff prefers keeping Sammy. That's an intentional smokescreen by design. With that said, my belief is JD is trying to build up the asking price for the 2nd overall pick? He's going to do what his HC wants to do. If Saleh wants Sammy JD will oblige because he trusts the guy he puts in his employ. JD will go through all of the theatrics so he can get the best price possible for the 2nd overall pick. 

So draft night, or possibly just prior, JD trades down from 2 and collects a kings ransom in the process. From there he fills a lot of need areas, gives Sammy the supporting cast he's always deserved, and it's the Robert Saleh/Sammy Darnold show in 2021.....

I will say this, after the 9ers, Fins deal, the price of the 2nd overall pick is going to be really steep. JD can't  take less than that deal. 

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1 hour ago, NYJ1 said:

Well, correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't he still have year 4 of Sammys rookie deal to evaluate him on? Meaning, he only has to commit to Sammy on a long term deal after 2021?

Sam will be a FA if he isn't  signed to the 5ht year deal once next season is over. 

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1 hour ago, NYJ1 said:

As Greenbean recently said on one of his podcasts.... "Nothing escapes One Jets Drive unless Joe Douglas wants it to". Now take into account the article mentioning that Joe Douglas prefers to draft Zach Wilson but the coaching staff prefers keeping Sammy. That's an intentional smokescreen by design. With that said, my belief is JD is trying to build up the asking price for the 2nd overall pick? He's going to do what his HC wants to do. If Saleh wants Sammy JD will oblige because he trusts the guy he puts in his employ. JD will go through all of the theatrics so he can get the best price possible for the 2nd overall pick. 

So draft night, or possibly just prior, JD trades down from 2 and collects a kings ransom in the process. From there he fills a lot of need areas, gives Sammy the supporting cast he's always deserved, and it's the Robert Saleh/Sammy Darnold show in 2021.....

This assumes the info on JD and Saleh having the disagreement on the QB is true. That may just be a smokescreen to drive up Darnold's trade value to get a 2nd rounder or more since teams may think the Jets want to keep him.

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

How many times can the same thread be open.  My goodness this is painful.

Well the QB decision is like us buying a house or getting married, so there cannot be too much discussion on an event that has that much of an effect on the future.

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The news that the Eagles wanted to trade up for Wilson is the end of this narrative. If the Jets had any thoughts of trading down they would have entertained a bidding war between the Panthers, Eagles and Falcons. Mike Tannebaum put is succinctly. It is 100% certain Jets are not trading down and are taking Wilson.

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43 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

The San Francisco 49ers told us yesterday, what they think of Darnold's suitability to run the same offence the Jets will use in 2021. 

Sadly that’s a great point.  There’s no reason for the 49ers to burn that much draft capital when they could have had darnold for a 2nd rounder if they wanted him.  

If you can forget for a moment where darnold was drafted and forget the hype, we’re talking about a guy who isn’t much better than Bryce petty. 

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56 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Does not really make any sense. Look the 49ers and Jets watched Wilson together. John Lynch,, Shanahan and Saleh are still really close and JD and Howie Roseman are best friends. The Eagles wanted to trade up to 3 but only for Wilson. The 49ers "did not inquire" about #2. Even in the NFL front office executives are not out to screw over their friends so the reality is that the 49ers and Eagles KNOW that Wilson will not be there. JD runs a tighter ship than most but let's face it the Jets do not really have to be coy about taking Wilson, nothing other than JAX taking Wilson can prevent it, and if that happens I think the Jets are happy with Lawrence.

The trades also mysteriously happened shorty after Wilson's measurables were confirmed.

I get there there is a group that hate Wilson and want to cling to any thread of hope Wilson is not the pick but at this point it is just not reality. There is like a 99.99% chance the Jets take Wilson. Only a failed physical would change that.

Couple other things: Jeremiah is good friends with JD. If you listen to the way he discusses the 2nd pick and the Jets it really seems he knows what we are going to do. Also, Saleh and JD had gigantic goofy smiles after the pro day.

Literally everything points to Wilson and nothing but delusion points to anything else.  

Only monkey wrench could be if the Jags trade down to a team that wants Wilson and then the Jets would take Lawrence. But, most trade partners would be slots where the Jags could not get a QB and they badly need one.

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4 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

The news that the Eagles wanted to trade up for Wilson is the end of this narrative. If the Jets had any thoughts of trading down they would have entertained a bidding war between the Panthers, Eagles and Falcons. Mike Tannebaum put is succinctly. It is 100% certain Jets are not trading down and are taking Wilson.

Douglas is very methodical and in a year where there was no combine, he wasn’t going to do anything until he got to see wilson in person and have his staff meet with him.  It’s no coincidence that those trades went down yesterday, since the 49ers and eagles brass likely spoke with douglas and quickly shifted to plan B after wilson became unavailable to them.  

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43 minutes ago, riggy001 said:

This may play out this way, but it will be less about Sam competing with Wilson, and more about not being able to get enough value for Sam. We would still need a backup qb for yr, and at 4.5 mill, wouldn’t be the worse thing...anyone else decent would likely cost similar $$

I agree, if we can't get decent value for Sam, keep him as a backup and see if we can get more for him if another QB goes down during the season.

On the flip slide, if Sam beat out Wilson for the starting role it would be a diaster waste of the #2 overall pick. They may not want to take that chance.

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Don’t we already know that Joe Douglas doesn’t believe in Darnold?  If he did, he would have walked into Chris Johnson’s office after the team was 0-6 (or 0-7 or 0-8) last season and said, “Chris, Adam is ruining my QB.  I need to make a change immediately and begin the process of building him back up.”

Looking at it logically, if JD does still have faith in Sam as some claim, he must then believe that Gase and the OC were historically bad at their jobs, causing Sam’s terrible performance.  But if that’s the case, why did he let a bad coach and OC continue to damage his franchise QB by playing out the string last year?  It doesn’t make any sense.  If you had a young pitcher who was the future of your team and you thought the manager and pitching coach were doing a terrible job with him, possibly damaging him beyond repair, wouldn’t you as the GM fire them ASAP?  

It just seems like JD has already made the decision based on what he’s seen on the field the last two years.

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