Joe Douglas and draft trends

[maury77]

At the outset, it seems funny to say Douglas has trends when he has only had 1 draft (its a small sample size), but we definitely noticed 2 trends which we should keep an eye on.

1) Athleticism

I don't think Douglas refers to https://relativeathleticscores.com/, but look at their results from the last draft. 

                                                                   

3 of the Jets first 4 selections scored a 9.74 or above on their RAS. The only pick that didn't (Ashtyn Davis) was a competitive NCAA hurdler who couldn't workout due to injury but was widely believed to be an elite athlete. 

Now let's look at what this year's numbers look like so far

What sticks out to me are the number of offensive lineman (especially guys that should be available after round 1) that scored through the roof on their testing. Seeing how passive Douglas was about chasing lineman in free agency makes me suspect he really likes the OL class and we are going to see multiple selections there before the end of the second day of the draft (especially if he trades back). 

2) Team captains

In 2020, Douglas drafted 5 former team captains: https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/26/jets-joe-douglas-former-college-captains-2020-nfl-draft/

Unfortunately, I cannot find a list of what prospects are team captains, but it is something to keep an eye on. 

[Augustiniak]

Don’t sleep on Nico Collins, he sat out the year but he’s good.  

[maury77]

Don’t sleep on Nico Collins, he sat out the year but he’s good.  

I was surprised by his 3 cone, but I don’t see the Jets going WR before round 3


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[Jets Voice of Reason]

Good points. I hope the athleticism trend continues so we continue to avoid the lorenzo mauldins and trever reillys of the world. 

Would be interested to see if we go receiver this draft and what size they are if he does. 

[Lith]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

What sticks out to me are the number of offensive lineman (especially guys that should be available after round 1) that scored through the roof on their testing. Seeing how passive Douglas was about chasing lineman in free agency makes me suspect he really likes the OL class and we are going to see multiple selections there before the end of the second day of the draft (especially if he trades back). 

Hope you are right.  I will be disappointed if we have not added at least two OL by the end of day 2.  

The other thing I think about with the OL is. are they really as bad as some think.  There is so much talk on the main board about poor Sam, playing behind this awful swiss cheese OL.  Couldn't the reverse be true.  Is an OL going to look good with a QB who can't read defenses or set protections.  Does not see where the rush is coming from, holds the ball too long and does not see the field well.  The popular narrative seems to be how can you judge Sam playing behind this OL.  I sometimes wonder if you can judge this OL playing in front of Sam.  FWIW, Flacco was sacked on 5% of his dropbacks, about 15th in the league.  Sam was sacked on 8.8% of his dropbacks, 34th in the league.  And two of Flacco's starts were without his starting LT -- the two games Becton missed were Flacco starts.

That said, we need to improve at both the QB and OL positions and have the draft capital to do both this offseason.  It should not, IMO, be a choice of one or the other.

[derp]

Good stuff, very interesting.

Was Zach Wilson actually a team captain? I joke. Mostly.

The OL within RAS are interesting. I always think smaller, quicker guys in the outside zone like Kendrick Green who tested really well. All those iOL are big boys. Makes sense within the context of what I think RAS is, they’re just not the types I’d focused on at all. But also, Becton.

It’ll be fun to see what he does. I do think he can significantly upgrade at guard day 2 (perhaps also by taking a center and moving McGovern to guard). I also think this is a pretty ideal tackle class to draft someone day two who fits the scheme and can best case push Fant this year and worst case take the job and provide depth next year.

[derp]

3 minutes ago, Lith said:

Hope you are right.  I will be disappointed if we have not added at least two OL by the end of day 2.  

The other thing I think about with the OL is. are they really as bad as some think.  There is so much talk on the main board about poor Sam, playing behind this awful swiss cheese OL.  Couldn't the reverse be true.  Is an OL going to look good with a QB who can't read defenses or set protections.  Does not see where the rush is coming from, holds the ball too long and does not see the field well.  The popular narrative seems to be how can you judge Sam playing behind this OL.  I sometimes wonder if you can judge this OL playing in front of Sam.  FWIW, Flacco was sacked on 5% of his dropbacks, about 15th in the league.  Sam was sacked on 8.8% of his dropbacks, 34th in the league.  And two of Flacco's starts were without his starting LT -- the two games Becton missed were Flacco starts.

That said, we need to improve at both the QB and OL positions and have the draft capital to do both this offseason.  It should not, IMO, be a choice of one or the other.

I do think this is a very fair point on the OL, plus continuity on the OL is good and they’ve got everyone back and signed another year too.

He’s got room to upgrade it but flexibility to keep guys as is I think. It’s a good spot.

I think it’s a great time to draft guys who can push Fant and the guards and potentially take those jobs this year or next without drafting someone crazy high.

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

At the outset, it seems funny to say Douglas has trends when he has only had 1 draft (its a small sample size), but we definitely noticed 2 trends which we should keep an eye on.

1) Athleticism

I don't think Douglas refers to https://relativeathleticscores.com/, but look at their results from the last draft. 

                                                                   

3 of the Jets first 4 selections scored a 9.74 or above on their RAS. The only pick that didn't (Ashtyn Davis) was a competitive NCAA hurdler who couldn't workout due to injury but was widely believed to be an elite athlete. 

Now let's look at what this year's numbers look like so far

What sticks out to me are the number of offensive lineman (especially guys that should be available after round 1) that scored through the roof on their testing. Seeing how passive Douglas was about chasing lineman in free agency makes me suspect he really likes the OL class and we are going to see multiple selections there before the end of the second day of the draft (especially if he trades back). 

2) Team captains

In 2020, Douglas drafted 5 former team captains: https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/26/jets-joe-douglas-former-college-captains-2020-nfl-draft/

Unfortunately, I cannot find a list of what prospects are team captains, but it is something to keep an eye on. 

Great find and observation.

I know the sample size is small (one draft), but this is a reasonably good metric to predict how we'll draft this year.

I'll be watching if Baron Browning ranks high on this list after his pro day. Maybe Brevin Jordan too after his.

We need a true space LB'er and a dangerous TE for the new systems on either side of the ball, and both will require premier athleticism.

[Jets723]

36 minutes ago, derp said:

I do think this is a very fair point on the OL, plus continuity on the OL is good and they’ve got everyone back and signed another year too.

He’s got room to upgrade it but flexibility to keep guys as is I think. It’s a good spot.

I think it’s a great time to draft guys who can push Fant and the guards and potentially take those jobs this year or next without drafting someone crazy high.

I’m very confident we will asked a couple more OL given JD’s backround.  In fact I expect one at 23

[jetstream23]

Good detective work, @maury77

 

Where does Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State) fall on the list or did he not participate because of his injury?

I think we're getting to the point where we really need to focus on the specifics of the OLinemen this year.  Athleticism, as you pointed out, seems to be important.  But guys who also played in zone-blocking schemes (or seem like a fit for it) instead of "phone booth" guys or man/power blocking linemen will be favored as well, right?

If the Jets are waiting until #34 for OL I think guys like Creed Humphrey and Wyatt Davis will be serious considerations.  If the Jets want to go OT instead of IOL there could it be a guy like Cosmi?

[maury77]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Good detective work, @maury77

 

Where does Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State) fall on the list or did he not participate because of his injury?

I think we're getting to the point where we really need to focus on the specifics of the OLinemen this year.  Athleticism, as you pointed out, seems to be important.  But guys who also played in zone-blocking schemes (or seem like a fit for it) instead of "phone booth" guys or man/power blocking linemen will be favored as well, right?

If the Jets are waiting until #34 for OL I think guys like Creed Humphrey and Wyatt Davis will be serious considerations.  If the Jets want to go OT instead of IOL there could it be a guy like Cosmi?

LOL, thanks. Re Wyatt Davis, we don't know yet, his pro day is next Tuesday. 

[maury77]

So for sh*ts and giggles, I did a 3 round mock (no trades and yes, I picked Kyle Pitts 1st because I don't want to get into the QB debate) and tried to stick to only guys that scored above a 9.5 RAS. 

[section314]

Didn't Cam Clark have a pretty good RAS also? 

[Lith]

31 minutes ago, section314 said:

Didn't Cam Clark have a pretty good RAS also? 

Nope.

[section314]

1 minute ago, Lith said:

Nope.

Wow. It can't just have been his game against Clemson. Wonder what he saw that made him take him there. Although I do remember Kiper praising the pick. Not that it really matters, but hasn't been the Jets biggest fan.

[Lith]

3 minutes ago, section314 said:

Wow. It can't just have been his game against Clemson. Wonder what he saw that made him take him there. Although I do remember Kiper praising the pick. Not that it really matters, but hasn't been the Jets biggest fan.

Regardless of the athletic score, he saw soemthing in him.  Didn't he have a big Shrine Bowl week - maybe that is what sold JD on him.  Hope to see him on the field this year.

[section314]

Just now, Lith said:

Regardless of the athletic score, he saw soemthing in him.  Didn't he have a big Shrine Bowl week - maybe that is what sold JD on him.  Hope to see him on the field this year.

Yes. I remember reading/ hearing that some were projecting him as a C in the NFL. Either way, as you said, get on the field.

[Lith]

2 minutes ago, section314 said:

Yes. I remember reading/ hearing that some were projecting him as a C in the NFL. Either way, as you said, get on the field.

Hopefully there will be a preseason this year so we can get a look at some of these guys, as well as the new rookie class.  It is so frustrating that we have not seen a single snap of guys like Morgan and Clark.

[derp]

Is RAS position specific and would Clark’s have been better as a guard?

I feel like Spencer Brown, Walker Little, or Dillon Radunz would make a ton of sense in the third round as a tackle. Lots of guards too. And I wonder if he loves Meinerz.

[Lith]

37 minutes ago, derp said:

Is RAS position specific and would Clark’s have been better as a guard?

I feel like Spencer Brown, Walker Little, or Dillon Radunz would make a ton of sense in the third round as a tackle. Lots of guards too. And I wonder if he loves Meinerz.

Yes, it is position specific, so his numbers would have looked better as a guard.  

There is a ton of depth to double dip at OL.  Humphrey or Vera-Tucker at 23 and one of the guys you mention in R3 and I will feel alot better about this OL, regardless of who plays behind them.

[varjet]

i really hope that JDs 3rd ad 4th round draft picks look better.  Could have had him:

[Beerfish]

Can't believe you guys are buying into the Tom shane, our oline was bad due to Darnold schtick.

Did you gents watch the games?  He was running for his life off the get go very often.

Becton is good but needs to be more durable and consistent,  Most of the rest suck or are medicore.  We need to build a great oline not a oh we can get by oline.

When have the Jets been good in the past?  When we had a great oline.

QBs like Sanchez and Dak look good due to a great oline.

Don;t fall for the shiny toys fellows, build a great foundation.

[maury77]

Didn't Cam Clark have a pretty good RAS also? 

I should specify that it was the day 1 and 2 picks that scored high, the trend did not continue in day 3 (team captain trend did continue in day 3)


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[Lith]

29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Can't believe you guys are buying into the Tom shane, our oline was bad due to Darnold schtick.

Did you gents watch the games?  He was running for his life off the get go very often.

Becton is good but needs to be more durable and consistent,  Most of the rest suck or are medicore.  We need to build a great oline not a oh we can get by oline.

When have the Jets been good in the past?  When we had a great oline.

QBs like Sanchez and Dak look good due to a great oline.

Don;t fall for the shiny toys fellows, build a great foundation.

I think our OL is below average and needs to be improved.  I believe Sam Darnold is below average and the QB position needs to be improved.  The hyperbole around Darnold's time to throw and the worst OL in history and the Mahomes SB comparisons are ridiculous.  Sam may have had the occasional game where he was constantly harassed, but its not like he played 16 games under the type of duress Mahomes faced in the Super Bowl.

When I watched Darnold play this past season, I saw a guy who was lost.  He had no idea what the defense was trying to do, did not see the rush, did not use his checkdowns, held the ball too long, failed to throw to open receivers, and when he did, he missed them too often.  I am not saying a QB elevates a bad OL, but a bad QB makes everything look worse on offense.

When Joe Flacco played behind the same OL (minus Becton in 2 1/2 games), he was sacked around league average.  5% of dropbacks.  Darnold was the 34th worst sack percentage in the league behind the same OL, actually a better OL because he had Becton most of the time.  Yes, I think a bad QB can drag down a below average OL.

We need to upgrade both and we can this offseason.  It is not an either/or.

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

I think our OL is below average and needs to be improved.  I believe Sam Darnold is below average and the QB position needs to be improved.  The hyperbole around Darnold's time to throw and the worst OL in history and the Mahomes SB comparisons are ridiculous.  Sam may have had the occasional game where he was constantly harassed, but its not like he played 16 games under the type of duress Mahomes faced in the Super Bowl.

When I watched Darnold play this past season, I saw a guy who was lost.  He had no idea what the defense was trying to do, did not see the rush, did not use his checkdowns, held the ball too long, failed to throw to open receivers, and when he did, he missed them too often.  I am not saying a QB elevates a bad OL, but a bad QB makes everything look worse on offense.

When Joe Flacco played behind the same OL (minus Becton in 2 1/2 games), he was sacked around league average.  5% of dropbacks.  Darnold was the 34th worst sack percentage in the league behind the same OL, actually a better OL because he had Becton most of the time.  Yes, I think a bad QB can drag down a below average OL.

We need to upgrade both and we can this offseason.  It is not an either/or.

Flacco won no games and scored a whopping total of 10 points in his 1st two games, another lousy narrative that the jets were awesome behind Flacco.

Darnold was lousy last year and is most likely done here.

The oline, receivers and coaching were pure garbage.

The next thing we will hear is that it was Darnolds fault Herndon dropped every thing the 1st half of the season.

[JohnnyLV]

13 hours ago, maury77 said:

At the outset, it seems funny to say Douglas has trends when he has only had 1 draft (its a small sample size), but we definitely noticed 2 trends which we should keep an eye on.

1) Athleticism

I don't think Douglas refers to https://relativeathleticscores.com/, but look at their results from the last draft. 

                                                                   

3 of the Jets first 4 selections scored a 9.74 or above on their RAS. The only pick that didn't (Ashtyn Davis) was a competitive NCAA hurdler who couldn't workout due to injury but was widely believed to be an elite athlete. 

Now let's look at what this year's numbers look like so far

What sticks out to me are the number of offensive lineman (especially guys that should be available after round 1) that scored through the roof on their testing. Seeing how passive Douglas was about chasing lineman in free agency makes me suspect he really likes the OL class and we are going to see multiple selections there before the end of the second day of the draft (especially if he trades back). 

2) Team captains

In 2020, Douglas drafted 5 former team captains: https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/26/jets-joe-douglas-former-college-captains-2020-nfl-draft/

Unfortunately, I cannot find a list of what prospects are team captains, but it is something to keep an eye on. 

Good post. I have noticed this as well. Good to see concrete data that somewhat confirms it.  I hope you are right because as it is I do not want to start any QB behind our OL. It has to be a priority. But I thought that last year too and we passed on more OL an WR help for Ashtyn and Morgan.

I also hate the #23 spot. I really want to see them try and get back into the Top 10 even if they overpay a slight bit and get a playmaker. I mean 5 of the Top 10 might be QB so anywhere in the Top 10 and we walk away with an elite play maker. The pick itself, Sam, bext years Seattle#1 and even Moseley could be used to get there.

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, Lith said:

I think our OL is below average and needs to be improved.  I believe Sam Darnold is below average and the QB position needs to be improved.  The hyperbole around Darnold's time to throw and the worst OL in history and the Mahomes SB comparisons are ridiculous.  Sam may have had the occasional game where he was constantly harassed, but its not like he played 16 games under the type of duress Mahomes faced in the Super Bowl.

When I watched Darnold play this past season, I saw a guy who was lost.  He had no idea what the defense was trying to do, did not see the rush, did not use his checkdowns, held the ball too long, failed to throw to open receivers, and when he did, he missed them too often.  I am not saying a QB elevates a bad OL, but a bad QB makes everything look worse on offense.

When Joe Flacco played behind the same OL (minus Becton in 2 1/2 games), he was sacked around league average.  5% of dropbacks.  Darnold was the 34th worst sack percentage in the league behind the same OL, actually a better OL because he had Becton most of the time.  Yes, I think a bad QB can drag down a below average OL.

We need to upgrade both and we can this offseason.  It is not an either/or.

The odd thing about the Flacco games, and not saying this is the reason but those are two games that Loggains actually called before Gase started calling plays again and denying he was. Serious question: Could a head coach be worse than Gase? We have had a lot of mediocre head coaches but Gase makes them look like Paul Brown.

But I totally agree that Sam was completely lost. He is no better reading defenses today than he was on his first day. I was SOO excited when we picked him and I was a absolute he could do no wrong nothing was his fault fanboy for so long.

[Augustiniak]

11 hours ago, Lith said:

I think our OL is below average and needs to be improved.  I believe Sam Darnold is below average and the QB position needs to be improved.  The hyperbole around Darnold's time to throw and the worst OL in history and the Mahomes SB comparisons are ridiculous.  Sam may have had the occasional game where he was constantly harassed, but its not like he played 16 games under the type of duress Mahomes faced in the Super Bowl.

When I watched Darnold play this past season, I saw a guy who was lost.  He had no idea what the defense was trying to do, did not see the rush, did not use his checkdowns, held the ball too long, failed to throw to open receivers, and when he did, he missed them too often.  I am not saying a QB elevates a bad OL, but a bad QB makes everything look worse on offense.

When Joe Flacco played behind the same OL (minus Becton in 2 1/2 games), he was sacked around league average.  5% of dropbacks.  Darnold was the 34th worst sack percentage in the league behind the same OL, actually a better OL because he had Becton most of the time.  Yes, I think a bad QB can drag down a below average OL.

We need to upgrade both and we can this offseason.  It is not an either/or.

This.  Darnold has no idea how to use check downs and continually held onto the ball too long hoping to make a big play when he should have been throwing more to the rbs. Defensive players are faster each year and it’s hard for even very good OL to keep these guys away from the qb for more than a few seconds.  You can draft Sewell and spend major FA dollars on OL but if you have a qb like darnold you’re not going to see the qb improvement you think.  Qbs can become great if they have good players around them but if the qb stinks, a great OL can’t make him look good.  

Also the run blocking wasn’t bad and would have appeared much better if gase used the faster rbs instead of gore.  

[Lith]

12 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Flacco won no games and scored a whopping total of 10 points in his 1st two games, another lousy narrative that the jets were awesome behind Flacco.

Darnold was lousy last year and is most likely done here.

The oline, receivers and coaching were pure garbage.

The next thing we will hear is that it was Darnolds fault Herndon dropped every thing the 1st half of the season.

I never said Flacco is better than Sam, or that the Jets were awesome behind Flacco.  Just pointing out that Flacco was not running for his life behind the same OL than Sam had.

Sam was put in a terrible position.  Bad coaching, poor supporting cast.  You won't get an argument from me.  Better situation and he may have had a much better start to his career.  It just seems that there are so many who are willing to absolve Sam from blame for any of his poor play.  He is a bad QB on a bad team.  We need to upgrade both.

[RedBeardedSavage]

If you look @ the thread, there are tweets for every position group.

Don't know the sources, though.

[maury77]

7 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

If you look @ the thread, there are tweets for every position group.

Don't know the sources, though.

Putting Trey Smith next to Becton on the left side should be illegal. 

[peebag]

On 3/28/2021 at 8:41 AM, maury77 said:

At the outset, it seems funny to say Douglas has trends when he has only had 1 draft (its a small sample size), but we definitely noticed 2 trends which we should keep an eye on.

1) Athleticism

I don't think Douglas refers to https://relativeathleticscores.com/, but look at their results from the last draft. 

                                                                   

3 of the Jets first 4 selections scored a 9.74 or above on their RAS. The only pick that didn't (Ashtyn Davis) was a competitive NCAA hurdler who couldn't workout due to injury but was widely believed to be an elite athlete. 

Now let's look at what this year's numbers look like so far

What sticks out to me are the number of offensive lineman (especially guys that should be available after round 1) that scored through the roof on their testing. Seeing how passive Douglas was about chasing lineman in free agency makes me suspect he really likes the OL class and we are going to see multiple selections there before the end of the second day of the draft (especially if he trades back). 

2) Team captains

In 2020, Douglas drafted 5 former team captains: https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/26/jets-joe-douglas-former-college-captains-2020-nfl-draft/

Unfortunately, I cannot find a list of what prospects are team captains, but it is something to keep an eye on. 

Nice topic!

[RedBeardedSavage]

 

[Jdub03]

I find it very interesting that of all years, this is the year that we are seeing all of these ridiculous RAS scores.  Would have been great to have a combine this year. Although, it probably means more in the running tests as opposed to the lifting and jumping tests.

[peekskill68]

On 3/28/2021 at 11:19 AM, Lith said:

Hope you are right.  I will be disappointed if we have not added at least two OL by the end of day 2.  

The other thing I think about with the OL is. are they really as bad as some think.  There is so much talk on the main board about poor Sam, playing behind this awful swiss cheese OL.  Couldn't the reverse be true.  Is an OL going to look good with a QB who can't read defenses or set protections.  Does not see where the rush is coming from, holds the ball too long and does not see the field well.  The popular narrative seems to be how can you judge Sam playing behind this OL.  I sometimes wonder if you can judge this OL playing in front of Sam.  FWIW, Flacco was sacked on 5% of his dropbacks, about 15th in the league.  Sam was sacked on 8.8% of his dropbacks, 34th in the league.  And two of Flacco's starts were without his starting LT -- the two games Becton missed were Flacco starts.

That said, we need to improve at both the QB and OL positions and have the draft capital to do both this offseason.  It should not, IMO, be a choice of one or the other.

All good points, and I know it's a chicken and egg thing, but we also had the 25th ranked rushing offense which makes it harder on a QB.  Now how much of that was Gore, or Gase, or Sam not being able to audible vs. the OL was just bad?