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What’s the price?


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So now that we are through the Zach WIlson pro day, the likelihood of the Jets picking him has gone way up.  But everyone has a price.  And I keep thinking that guys like Parcells always preferred vets at the QB positions.  Error-free football was more important to him.  So even as we might think it is 90% likely now that they are taking Wilson, I believe the certainty will be had in the next couple of weeks.  And the Jets will continue to listen to offers for both Darnold and Wilson.  And that the moves may be somewhat linked, but somewhat not.  For example, if they take Wilson, but don’t like the offers for Darnold, I see now reason why he is not the bridge for the first half of the season.  The Jets do not have a back-up qb right now, and depending on the trade scenarios that needs to be part of the solution.  So let’s discuss what the price would be given the thought that it just went up for Zach. 

As I see it, there are three suitors,  Atlanta, Carolina, and Denver.  That’s it.

1) Atlanta: for Zach:  Starts with 2021, 2022, first round picks, and then additional picks and/or players.  Intrigued by Matt Ryan coming back in that trade to back up or compete against Darnold.  Also intrigued by Chris Lindstrom.  That’s about it.  2 spots allows them to take the tackle or Pitts.  For Darnold, assuming we are taking Zach, 2nd round pick might do it.  But it leaves us without QB2.  

2) Carolina: Steeper price:  Starts with 2021, 2022, 2023, first round picks, and additional picks and/or players.  Players to come back include Bridgewater who we might resign for QB 2 money, how about McCaffery?  For Darnold, best package would be a swap of 23rd and 8th pick for Darnold; alternative, 2nd round pick, maybe a later pick as well.  2nd and 4th.  Or next year’s conditional 3rd that rises to a 2 if he plays well or if they resign him.  We also might need to figure out a way to get Bridgewater in the Darnold trade.  

3) For Denver at 9:  this is the furthest we would go:  Starts again with 1st round picks in 2021, 2022, and 2023;  on that roster, guys like Chubb, Justin Simmons, and Dalton Risner are interesting.  Chubb in particular.  Also possible other picks as well.  For Darnold, similar package to Carolina.  Swap of 23rd and 9th works.   But it leaves us without a QB2 that can actually win games.  No QB on that roster that we want.  

So, what’s the price?  Everyone’s got a price.  Think about 3 1st round picks next year, and 2 the following year, if we need to maneuver for a QB because Darnold is not resurrected.  And at 24, think if LaFleur’s systems unlocks him, how his QB salary alongside the draft picks leads us to stack it up.  It all comes down to the offers that are made.  But if someone blows us away with an offer for 2, I see a clearer path to the playoffs and further than if we take Zach.  Even with the risk that Darnold blows this year.  And I happen to think that risk is lower than people suspect.  

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3 minutes ago, choon328 said:

There is no price to pass up on a franchise QB, JD said it himself. He also said he wouldn't answer calls on franchise caliber QBs yet said this off-season he would answer calls about Darnold. What does that tell you?

I think that’s a fair opinion... and may be the one JD has... but I’ve learned enough about him that he is going to listen to the offers.  For a couple of weeks at least.  I am impressed with Wilson... but that shoulder and the level of competition stands out.  Is he a generational talent that you listen to no offers for?  That said, the Coastal Carolina game is worth watching... you could see his potential in a dirty pocket.   They were all over Wilson and he was unbelievable in that game.I’d be fine if he’s that convinced.

Then, it becomes whether and if he trades Darnold.  Think Carolina is the best suitor, because I can see Bridgewater coming back in a trade.  We still need a QB2.  Not just a seat holder, but someone who can actually win games if QB1 goes out.  

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8 minutes ago, choon328 said:

There is no price to pass up on a franchise QB, JD said it himself. He also said he wouldn't answer calls on franchise caliber QBs yet said this off-season he would answer calls about Darnold. What does that tell you?

Thissssssssssssssssss
 

Also Kyle is clearly high on this QB class, you can’t tell me the feeling isn’t mutual with our staff from SF. 

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13 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Thissssssssssssssssss
 

Also Kyle is clearly high on this QB class, you can’t tell me the feeling isn’t mutual with our staff from SF. 

I think for certain if JD thinks he is a bonafide franchise QB, slam dunk, he doesn’t listen to offers for Zach.  I understand that.  In which case you pivot to whether to trade or keep Darnold.  This is more complicated than people think.  We have NO QB2 on the roster.  Do you feel comfortable with QB depth chart being Beatherd/Mullens and Morgan?  Forgive me if I don’t.  Only way you trade Darnold in that case is if you get a ridiculous offer or bring back Bridgewater from Carolina.  Otherwise you keep Darnold as bridge/QB2 for this year.  You don’t just unload him to be nice to him for a mid 2nd round pick.

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I did find it interesting that the Falcons were the only other team, bar the Jets, that had their GM-HC-OC combo at Wilson's pro day. They obviously love Wilson, but I wouldn't see them doing a trade when their options are:

1. Give up multiple picks for Wilson. 

2. Trade down and accumulate multiple picks with Matt Ryan. 

It's one thing Jets fans comparing Wilson v Darnold + picks. The Falcons would be comparing Wilson - picks v Ryan + picks. 

I also don't see the Jets moving down to 4. Our options at 4 would be:

1. Take QB4. 

2. Non QB, but less draft capital than we could have aquired from Philly/SF. 

 

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If in fact JD trades the #2 pick, I think it will be b/c he's decided to sort of "punt" on the QB question for a year. It would not necessarily mean that he's committed to Darnold, just that he gets blown away by an offer and sees the chance to move up and draft a new QB in 2022. A situation where the Jets have three firsts and two seconds next year (plus maybe two more firsts in 2023) might tempt him if he has any reservations at all about Wilson. 

He could take that deal, bolster the OL in the draft, and see if Darnold suddenly turns it around.  If not (If Darnold sucks again the Jets would likely have another very early 1st next year), get a new guy in 2022 with an improved OL and receivers.

FWIW, I think JD will take Wilson.

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3 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

Drop to 8 and pick up the next two years of the Carolina Panthers first round picks, plus Christian McCaffrey. 

With the 8th pick draft an offensive lineman OR how 'bout a pass catching weapon to go along with Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, and Christian McCaffrey. Dreaming of Pitts. 

The more I think of it, it would seem that Carolina is really the most realistic... Not just for Wilson, but also for Darnold... it could be that the Jets and Carolina are playing chess right now between Wilson and Darnold. And it’s quite possible that no trade commences.  One clue is that the Jets have not signed QB2 yet... why?  Beatherd and Mullens are out there and obvious, and would have been necessary either way if they took Zach or kept Darnold (assuming they were trading Darnold).  Makes me think they are staring down Carolina to see what their offers are for Wilson and for Darnold, and where Bridgewater fits into those equations.  Makes the most sense.  Unless the Falcons are dangling Matt Ryan as part of a broader trade from 4, it’s hard to see that happening.  And Denver doesn’t have the ammo, unless they move some special players.

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Panthers owner David Tepper is known to be ulta-aggresive and was said to be desperate to land Watson. That seems unlikely now, which I think only will increase his desperation to land a franchise QB, or at least a QB with the potential to become one. I would be surprised if GM Scott Fitterer did not make a ridiculous offer to the Jets.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

I think for certain if JD thinks he is a bonafide franchise QB, slam dunk, he doesn’t listen to offers for Zach.  I understand that.  In which case you pivot to whether to trade or keep Darnold.  This is more complicated than people think.  We have NO QB2 on the roster.  Do you feel comfortable with QB depth chart being Beatherd/Mullens and Morgan?  Forgive me if I don’t.  Only way you trade Darnold in that case is if you get a ridiculous offer or bring back Bridgewater from Carolina.  Otherwise you keep Darnold as bridge/QB2 for this year.  You don’t just unload him to be nice to him for a mid 2nd round pick.

I can guarantee you that LaFleur would be more than comfortable with Mullens as his back up in this scenario than Darnold. Mullens has already played to a 2:1 TD:Int ratio with a 65% comp in this system. He just doesn't come with all of the hype and top 5 pick status that Darnold does. 

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3 minutes ago, choon328 said:

I can guarantee you that LaFleur would be more than comfortable with Mullens as his back up in this scenario than Darnold. Mullens has already played to a 2:1 TD:Int ratio with a 65% comp in this system. He just doesn't come with all of the hype and top 5 pick status that Darnold does. 

Fair enough, but why haven’t they signed him yet?  Tells me that Darnold at QB2 remains a viable option if they take Wilson, unless they get an offer that is worthy enough to move him.  If you are right that Wilson is locked in at 2 to the Jets, it would seem the Jets value Darnold for 1 year better than Mullens and a low-second, or that deal would have been done by now.  Maybe they are waiting to see if they can package 23 to move up to 8, 9, or 12 (Philly) before making a decision on Mullens.  If they can’t, they may just keep Darnold.

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2 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Fair enough, but why haven’t they signed him yet?  Tells me that Darnold at QB2 remains a viable option if they take Wilson, unless they get an offer that is worthy enough to move him.  If you are right that Wilson is locked in at 2 to the Jets, it would seem the Jets value Darnold for 1 year better than Mullens and a low-second, or that deal would have been done by now.  Maybe they are waiting to see if they can package 23 to move up to 8, 9, or 12 (Philly) before making a decision on Mullens.  If they can’t, they may just keep Darnold.

I've said this before. Signing Mullens signals Darnold is gone. It takes away any of the leverage the Jets may have had in trade talks. Although, Wilson's pro day already did that in my opinion. 

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1 hour ago, Adoni Beast said:

After Wilson’s pro day and SF’s trade up,

The price is at a minimum:

• 2021 1st

• 2021 2nd

• 2022 1st

• 2022 2nd

• 2023 1st

I say what if SanFran gave us Fred Warner!

He is considered the best MLB in the entire NFL!!!

 

I truly think that this was the essence of San Fran’s bold move up to three!

Introducing Fred Warner......

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SackExchangeNYJ said:

The part of the argument that confuses me is how trading out of #2 can offer you more picks next year or in 2023 to move up the board for a QB.

Well, why not stay in the #2 spot now, then? What is the point to trade out, only to have to try to get back in at some later point?

The logic of this move is two fold.

1. Hope Darnold lives up to his draft status.

2. More resources to build out a competitive roster.

If the Jet's stay with Sam this year, I think he would have to be on a 2 year deal. I'd want the financial flexibility for 2 years before commiting big money if he has a good year next year. I'd want him to back it up again in 2022. That said, I think a change of scenery is needed for him to be successful, and thus don't see him working out here. He has the skill though, if he can get his confidence back.

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It all comes down to timing.  Douglas can pick Wilson and get a good QBs.  This assumes he’s blown away by the guy.  He can also trade the two pick for a whole bunch of future and present consideration. This means he can solidify the team before bringing in the QBs. And with all the draft capital probably have his pick of next seasons draft or the season after or even pull in a vet.  As they say build it and they will come.  And if the team is that kick azz then they can afford a lower tier QBs.

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6 hours ago, Jdub03 said:

The logic of this move is two fold.

1. Hope Darnold lives up to his draft status.

2. More resources to build out a competitive roster.

If the Jet's stay with Sam this year, I think he would have to be on a 2 year deal. I'd want the financial flexibility for 2 years before commiting big money if he has a good year next year. I'd want him to back it up again in 2022. That said, I think a change of scenery is needed for him to be successful, and thus don't see him working out here. He has the skill though, if he can get his confidence back.

That does make sense, but as you said, the Jets would have to make a decision on picking up the fifth year option before knowing whether he turns it around. 

It seems far more likely that they reset the clock with a fresh five years of Wilson. And I believe a change of scenery may be best for all sides when it comes to Sam and the Jets.

As for the point about more resources, sure, the Jets would have more resources if they traded the #2 pick. But wouldn't that be negated if they had to use resources to trade back up to a top draft pick in a year or two? 

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7 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

After Wilson’s pro day and SF’s trade up,

The price is at a minimum:

• 2021 1st

• 2021 2nd

• 2022 1st

• 2022 2nd

• 2023 1st

You could get the rub and tug kid for less then that as soon as Houston cools down a bit.. 

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50 minutes ago, SackExchangeNYJ said:

 For the point about more resources, sure, the Jets would have more resources if they traded the #2 pick. But wouldn't that be negated if they had to use resources to trade back up to a top draft pick in a year or two? 

That is true, but the hope there is the team is already better constructed to support a young QB. Picks this year and next would have a year or two of development prior to the QB selection.

 

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8 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

So now that we are through the Zach WIlson pro day, the likelihood of the Jets picking him has gone way up.  But everyone has a price.  And I keep thinking that guys like Parcells always preferred vets at the QB positions.  Error-free football was more important to him.  So even as we might think it is 90% likely now that they are taking Wilson, I believe the certainty will be had in the next couple of weeks.  And the Jets will continue to listen to offers for both Darnold and Wilson.  And that the moves may be somewhat linked, but somewhat not.  For example, if they take Wilson, but don’t like the offers for Darnold, I see now reason why he is not the bridge for the first half of the season.  The Jets do not have a back-up qb right now, and depending on the trade scenarios that needs to be part of the solution.  So let’s discuss what the price would be given the thought that it just went up for Zach. 

As I see it, there are three suitors,  Atlanta, Carolina, and Denver.  That’s it.

1) Atlanta: for Zach:  Starts with 2021, 2022, first round picks, and then additional picks and/or players.  Intrigued by Matt Ryan coming back in that trade to back up or compete against Darnold.  Also intrigued by Chris Lindstrom.  That’s about it.  2 spots allows them to take the tackle or Pitts.  For Darnold, assuming we are taking Zach, 2nd round pick might do it.  But it leaves us without QB2.  

2) Carolina: Steeper price:  Starts with 2021, 2022, 2023, first round picks, and additional picks and/or players.  Players to come back include Bridgewater who we might resign for QB 2 money, how about McCaffery?  For Darnold, best package would be a swap of 23rd and 8th pick for Darnold; alternative, 2nd round pick, maybe a later pick as well.  2nd and 4th.  Or next year’s conditional 3rd that rises to a 2 if he plays well or if they resign him.  We also might need to figure out a way to get Bridgewater in the Darnold trade.  

3) For Denver at 9:  this is the furthest we would go:  Starts again with 1st round picks in 2021, 2022, and 2023;  on that roster, guys like Chubb, Justin Simmons, and Dalton Risner are interesting.  Chubb in particular.  Also possible other picks as well.  For Darnold, similar package to Carolina.  Swap of 23rd and 9th works.   But it leaves us without a QB2 that can actually win games.  No QB on that roster that we want.  

So, what’s the price?  Everyone’s got a price.  Think about 3 1st round picks next year, and 2 the following year, if we need to maneuver for a QB because Darnold is not resurrected.  And at 24, think if LaFleur’s systems unlocks him, how his QB salary alongside the draft picks leads us to stack it up.  It all comes down to the offers that are made.  But if someone blows us away with an offer for 2, I see a clearer path to the playoffs and further than if we take Zach.  Even with the risk that Darnold blows this year.  And I happen to think that risk is lower than people suspect.  

I stopped reading with the Matt Ryan nonsense. Atlanta has a 60m cap hit if they trade him + he is under contract for 3 more years at like 20mil per year in base alone.

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