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interesting article on Top College Deep Ball Passers - Jones??

rayzor

By rayzor
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rayzor

rayzor

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After all the top QB prospects have completed their Pro Days, it's hard not to compare how these guys threw.  It was diificult to ignore how well Fields threw the deep ball today so i wanted to find some stats for the season.  So i dug this article up.  Oddly, Fields doesn't appear in any of the top lists.  They conclude by proclaiming Jones may be the best deep passer but i feel Wilson is based on his place on the lists.

 

Top College Deep Ball Passers in 2020

By KYLE RODEMANN

Completing a deep pass is great for any offense. Not only do these plays flip the field, but they also increase the likelihood of scoring during the drive. Chunk plays lead to momentum shifts, and long touchdowns can often be the turning point a team needs to complete a comeback. This article will look to find out which college QBs were the best at throwing downfield during the 2020 season. Leaderboards found here will include draft-eligible players as well as underclassmen.

For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated. Minimum 30 deep attempts unless otherwise noted (62 QBs). Only regular season data is included in this article.

Most Deep Balls Attempted

Finding a QB that can make all the necessary throws can be hard for a college organization; but once they find one, it opens up so much for a football team’s offense. Not only does it allow for more deep passes, but it also allows for more explosive plays and chunk gains. These QBs are the leaders in deep throw attempts for the 2020 season:

Quarterback School Number of Throws
Dillon Gabriel UCF 69
D’Eriq King Miami FL 63
Layne Hatcher Arkansas State 62
Kyle Trask Florida 60
Sam Ehlinger Texas 59
Levi Lewis Louisiana Lafayette 58
Carson Strong Nevada 56
Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh 56

Dillon Gabriel leads the list of most deep pass attempts. This isn’t surprising given UCF’s high-powered offense and quick playing style. Florida’s Kyle Trask is near the top and worth noting. His most successful week throwing deep was against Alabama, where he completed 6 deep passes for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns. Trask is a Heisman finalist and has a chance to be the first Gator Heisman winner since Tim Tebow won the award in 2007.

Highest On-Target Percentage

On-Target Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that hit the receiver in stride. The quarterbacks that make up this list were the most accurate on throws downfield, giving their guys the best chance at coming down with the ball. Here are the most accurate college quarterbacks on deep passes:

Quarterback School On-Target % (Attempts)
Zach Wilson BYU 72% (50)
Trevor Lawrence Clemson 70% (40)
Spencer Rattler Oklahoma 69% (49)
Kyle Trask Florida 68% (60)
Mac Jones Alabama 67% (47)
Dillon Gabriel UCF 66% (69)
Jake Haener Fresno State 64% (34)

A lot of big names make this list, with Zach Wilson leading the group with a 74% on-target throw rate. Trevor Lawrence is the potential No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. He has been incredible throwing the deep ball, returning an accurate pass on 28 of 40 long balls. He has shown massive improvement in this aspect of his game. Last season, Lawrence’s on-target percentage on deep balls was 48%, 22 percentage points lower than this year’s rate.

Highest Touchdown Percentage

Touchdown percentage tells you the rate in which a quarterback threw for a touchdown on deep passes. This can show you not only the accuracy of these throws, but also which receiving cores are finishing these plays with scores. Here are the QBs with the highest touchdown percentages for the 2020 season:

Quarterback School TD% (TDs Thrown)
Mac Jones                     Alabama 30% (14)
Malik Willis Liberty 21% (9)
Spencer Rattler Oklahoma 20% (10)
Dillon Gabriel UCF 20% (14)
Carson Strong Nevada 19% (11)
Grant Wells Marshall 19% (9)
Kedon Slovis USC 18% (7)

Mac Jones has dominated this season, including on deep passes, where he has a 30% touchdown rate. For comparison, last year’s No. 1 pick, Joe Burrow, threw a touchdown on 28% of his deep passes during his historic senior season.

Highest IQR

IQR is SIS’ proprietary stat for quarterbacks. It works like QB Rating but factors out things outside of the QB’s control. This includes dropped passes (which they receive positive credit for) and dropped interceptions (which they receive negative credit for).

Here are the QBs with the highest IQR on deep passes for the 2020 season:

Quarterback School IQR
Zach Wilson BYU 133.8
Spencer Rattler Oklahoma 126.1
Dillon Gabriel UCF 125.6
Kyle Trask Florida 122.9
Carson Strong Nevada 122.0
Devin Leary NC State 121.5
Jake Haener Fresno State 116.5

A lot of names on this list also made other lists. This makes sense given the nature of IQR. Zach Wilson has had a meteoric rise this year in the eyes of NFL scouts. His efficiency on the deep ball has put his hat in the ring with the other first round QBs. Trask is another name to keep in mind, as he joins Wilson in that same ring as a potential first-round draft pick.

Conclusion

Last season, Burrow wowed the country with his historic rise. The deep ball factored into his success, as he led college quarterbacks in deep ball touchdown percentage, and was top 5 in on-target percentage, lowest interception percentage, yards, and touchdowns. If the deep ball is any indication, this year’s draft class has considerable talent at the QB position. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Kyle Trask all excelled throwing deep but Mac Jones may be the best deep passer in this class.

 

 

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Gangrene

Gangrene

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There are so many variables, that's why the argument over who's the right pick never ends.

Take Josh Allen's transformation from 'barely good enough' to 'great' in year three. Was it all on Stefon Diggs? Did his oline improve? What about the strength of schedule? Meditation classes over Zoom, eye laser surgery ?

It's not just stats. We know Josh Allen can take a hit and keep going, availability matters.

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SayNoToDMC

SayNoToDMC

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

 

Exactly.  Not calling that out makes this analysis look childish.

Yup, but he's a perfect fit for Shanahan and his offense. I can't believe they gave the ******* Dolphins 3 firsts to move up for the guy though. At least they kept him from the Pats though. I'm not sure who else they needed to worry about jumping them at 12

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rayzor

rayzor

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13 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Not sure how you get Jones from those stats, would seem to be clearly Wilson. I guess maybe they downvote him for less touchdowns but that seems really arbitrary

I agree.  I don't feel the TD's is that important a number here.  That comes down to play calling and having those 1st round WR's certainly helps.  I think their "IQR" number is most important and Wilson takes top honors there by far.  The fact that none of the other "top" QB's makes the top 7 on that list is amazing.  Their offensive style must be the reason.  At least you know, Wilson is an accurate deep passer.

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Peace Frog

Peace Frog

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Holy misleading thread title. 

TDs are not dependent on the QB. Lots of factors go into whether a deep accurate pass results in a TD. 

Looks like some other QB we are considering was tops in the more important “stat”. 

Maybe thread title should be changed to “Top College Deep Ball Passers-Wilson?!?”

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Peace Frog

Peace Frog

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Here is the only "stat" in that article that matters.  Not number of deep balls thrown (why that's even in the article is perplexing), not number of TDs (TDs are not dependant on anything the QB does once the ball leaves his/her/theys hand) and not IQBRLMGT (seems like a dumb subjective made up stat--especially when they call it "proprietary").

Highest On-Target Percentage

On-Target Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that hit the receiver in stride. The quarterbacks that make up this list were the most accurate on throws downfield, giving their guys the best chance at coming down with the ball. Here are the most accurate college quarterbacks on deep passes:

Quarterback School On-Target % (Attempts)
Zach Wilson BYU 72% (50)
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rayzor

rayzor

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27 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Here is the only "stat" in that article that matters.  Not number of deep balls thrown (why that's even in the article is perplexing), not number of TDs (TDs are not dependant on anything the QB does once the ball leaves his/her/theys hand) and not IQBRLMGT (seems like a dumb subjective made up stat--especially when they call it "proprietary").

Highest On-Target Percentage

On-Target Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that hit the receiver in stride. The quarterbacks that make up this list were the most accurate on throws downfield, giving their guys the best chance at coming down with the ball. Here are the most accurate college quarterbacks on deep passes:

Quarterback School On-Target % (Attempts)
Zach Wilson BYU 72% (50)

True, but i do like how the IQR factors in dropped passes and dropped interceptions.

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Peace Frog

Peace Frog

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5 minutes ago, rayzor said:

True, but i do like how the IQR factors in dropped passes and dropped interceptions.

Sure but Wilson is also highest in that metric too-I always felt some of those "stats" were subjective, but even still, it's Wilson.

The only metric that Jones is higher in is TDs which, again, isn't the most telling stat.

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