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Hotter Commodity: Sam Darnold or Jimmy Garoppolo


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The guy has played at a high level when healthy, but has not been able to stay on the field.  Missed most of this last season with a high ankle injury.  I just wonder if there is more to the injruy than we know that would lead the Niners to make this move.

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40 minutes ago, Lith said:

The guy has played at a high level when healthy, but has not been able to stay on the field.  Missed most of this last season with a high ankle injury.  I just wonder if there is more to the injruy than we know that would lead the Niners to make this move.

He kind of sucks and it's the system. So much so They traded up with 3 firsts to most likely take a QB that should have been there at 12, cause they think he can be plugged in and not suck. They just need somebody smart and accurate

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I take the 49ers at their word that they’re not trading Garoppolo anytime soon. Breer mentioned how they considered Darnold internally, but I think they did so under the presumption that Jimmy G would be the starter this year. I think they made this deal as opposed to trading for Darnold for 2 reasons:

  1. As of last week Darnold or #2 hadn’t been made available. I think it’s a poor strategy personally unless they already have a wink-wink agreement in place. I don’t think the 49ers were prepared to wait any longer being that they had been negotiating with 3-4-5 for a few weeks. 
  2. Essentially the 49ers are paying the premium to get a QB without any developed bad habits they can groom and surround with talent on a cheap contract for 3 years. I kind of understand that. They have a lot of talented players up for new contracts, whereas you’d likely be stuck paying Darnold $15m APY+ starting next season. 

Using that logic, follow the money. Jimmy G has 1 suitor who is willing to make him the starting QB: the Patriots, and they don’t have enough money. 

The Steelers, Panthers, Patriots, Broncos, and Seahawks are the teams who are on the outside looking in for rookie QBs, can use a QB to compete with an incumbent now/potentially start in the future, and should be able to afford him next year without disrupting their roster construction. 

I think Jets will get more for Sam than fans think because teams believe in his talent and view him as a long-term starting QB who can be groomed into it, but can also win outright. Personally, I see Denver as the team that makes most sense, and they have money to spend if they need to bring Darnold back on the option next year. But there will be competition, and I won’t rule out Seattle forming some sort of creative deal for him... I think there’s a chance they’ll try to acquire him with an understanding that 2021 may be Russell’s last year with the team. I don’t know how they’d structure it, but I think the interest there is real 

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21 minutes ago, football guy said:

Essentially the 49ers are paying the premium to get a QB without any developed bad habits they can groom and surround with talent on a cheap contract for 3 years.

This right here is one of the biggest components for the trade Sam crowd.

The “is it Sam or the Jet’s fault?” debate is irrelevant. Regardless of who owns the lion’s share, the bad habits are present and harder to break than building up a rookie from scratch.

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36 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

This right here is one of the biggest components for the trade Sam crowd.

The “is it Sam or the Jet’s fault?” debate is irrelevant. Regardless of who owns the lion’s share, the bad habits are present and harder to break than building up a rookie from scratch.

He's young, he's got talent, but the ship has sailed. I blame us mainly for what happened and really hope he gets a chance to go on and do good things(unless he ends up in the AFC East). 

He's not a bad kid. I don't know if he's a bad player, but it's over here. Sometimes the breakup is best for everyone 

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49 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

This right here is one of the biggest components for the trade Sam crowd.

The “is it Sam or the Jet’s fault?” debate is irrelevant. Regardless of who owns the lion’s share, the bad habits are present and harder to break than building up a rookie from scratch.

Yeah but I don't want to overstate it because rookies come into the NFL with bad habits too. With Sam there aren't any deal breaker habits that will be difficult to break and he's only 23-24 years old, but I think these elite run organizations that look at Sam as a potential long-term option need to consider that the best-case scenario would be to let him sit and develop a bit before planning on him starting in 2022 and weigh that against the need to either pick up his option for $18+ million or get creative with an extension, and then determine how much they're willing to pay for that.

 

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19 minutes ago, Icer said:

Teams are starting Fitzpatrick & Dalton next year when they could get either. Probably tells you what you need to know

Its like you guys refuse to believe JD hasn't made his decision yet despite everything pointing to that simple fact.

If Carolina or ATL step up the trade will happen..  if not Sams likely gone (for more than you think) and he'll likely take the twink.

This isn't that complicated.

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2 hours ago, football guy said:

I take the 49ers at their word that they’re not trading Garoppolo anytime soon. Breer mentioned how they considered Darnold internally, but I think they did so under the presumption that Jimmy G would be the starter this year. I think they made this deal as opposed to trading for Darnold for 2 reasons:

  1. As of last week Darnold or #2 hadn’t been made available. I think it’s a poor strategy personally unless they already have a wink-wink agreement in place. I don’t think the 49ers were prepared to wait any longer being that they had been negotiating with 3-4-5 for a few weeks. 
  2. Essentially the 49ers are paying the premium to get a QB without any developed bad habits they can groom and surround with talent on a cheap contract for 3 years. I kind of understand that. They have a lot of talented players up for new contracts, whereas you’d likely be stuck paying Darnold $15m APY+ starting next season. 

Using that logic, follow the money. Jimmy G has 1 suitor who is willing to make him the starting QB: the Patriots, and they don’t have enough money. 

The Steelers, Panthers, Patriots, Broncos, and Seahawks are the teams who are on the outside looking in for rookie QBs, can use a QB to compete with an incumbent now/potentially start in the future, and should be able to afford him next year without disrupting their roster construction. 

I think Jets will get more for Sam than fans think because teams believe in his talent and view him as a long-term starting QB who can be groomed into it, but can also win outright. Personally, I see Denver as the team that makes most sense, and they have money to spend if they need to bring Darnold back on the option next year. But there will be competition, and I won’t rule out Seattle forming some sort of creative deal for him... I think there’s a chance they’ll try to acquire him with an understanding that 2021 may be Russell’s last year with the team. I don’t know how they’d structure it, but I think the interest there is real 

Any new inside info on what they do at #2?

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

Any new inside info on what they do at #2?

Nothing really. I’m trying not to harass too much because I’ve literally gone out with these people the past 3 weekends. It’s weird; you don’t want to seem too interested/don’t want to give off the impression all you care about is the scoops so have to be a little coy. 

They flip-flopped for the first time 2 weeks ago saying they didn’t think there would be the kind of market they expected for #2 simply because not enough teams in the top 10 willing to pay the premium... since then we’ve gotten the reviews from ZW’s pro-day, Carolina’s apparent reluctance/holding out for Watson, and the price for #3 having been established, I find it highly unlikely they’ll find someone willing to pay what #2 would cost (I’m guessing 3 first-round picks and at least an additional second). It’ll be much easier to trade Darnold for close to FMV than #2, but I won’t rule out a trade entirely. If Carolina gets crazy and makes an official offer within the next week or 2, I think Joe would at least consider it.

One thing that was pretty cool to hear was how they were all zoned in on the pro day last Friday. They had it on the TVs in their office and the people who were there were all zoned in. Said it almost felt like a summer Friday; people were cheering at some of the late throws 

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2 hours ago, football guy said:

Yeah but I don't want to overstate it because rookies come into the NFL with bad habits too. With Sam there aren't any deal breaker habits that will be difficult to break and he's only 23-24 years old, but I think these elite run organizations that look at Sam as a potential long-term option need to consider that the best-case scenario would be to let him sit and develop a bit before planning on him starting in 2022 and weigh that against the need to either pick up his option for $18+ million or get creative with an extension, and then determine how much they're willing to pay for that.

 

Can you elaborate on what exactly a deal breaker habit is, if Darnold doesn't have any?

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1 hour ago, Pac said:

Its like you guys refuse to believe JD hasn't made his decision yet despite everything pointing to that simple fact.

If Carolina or ATL step up the trade will happen..  if not Sams likely gone (for more than you think) and he'll likely take the twink.

This isn't that complicated.

Yeah, it's not. Teams aren't lining up for either of these guys over journeyman vets

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8 hours ago, Grandy said:

Can you elaborate on what exactly a deal breaker habit is, if Darnold doesn't have any?

It's very hard to recover a QB who drops their eyes. Usually a QB does this when they are fearful of the rush. It will happen to good QBs in individual games, but when it becomes a habit the QB is done. For a long time people confused this with developing "happy feet", but that's not necessarily a bad thing for some players (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady). Having happy feet, or even other footwork issues, isn't detrimental to a QB; footwork is a fickle thing in that it affects some QBs more than most (i.e. inconsistent throwing platforms/not setting his feet doesn't effect Zach Wilson's ability to throw at all, which is one thing that makes him so special), but when a QB sho                                                                          90lpo;;;
i.ws signs of thinking too much about the pass rush and habitually dropping his eyes rather than allowing feel/instinct/peripheral vision be your guide while keeping your eyes down field, it's going to become very difficult to come back from. Another aspect of this is forcing the ball to the first read without fully evaluating the field - this also often originates out of fear of getting hit. 

 

 

Sam's primary bad habits:

  • sloppy footwork and lower body mechanics that result poor weight transfer/too willing to throw off his back foot (both result in him under throwing balls) 
  • inconsistent decision-making and persistently throwing into coverages he knows (or should know) not to do, mostly due to overconfidence in his abilities and trying to do too much. What's most frustrating about this is that if he just got his footwork under control, he can probably get away with some of these throws, but footwork has been ignored the past 2 years. He seems like he's trying to do too much, which results in him passing up (or not looking for) the wide open 'outlet receiver
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7 minutes ago, football guy said:

It's very hard to recover a QB who drops their eyes. Usually a QB does this when they are fearful of the rush. It will happen to good QBs in individual games, but when it becomes a habit the QB is done. For a long time people confused this with developing "happy feet", but that's not necessarily a bad thing for some players (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady). Having happy feet, or even other footwork issues, isn't detrimental to a QB; footwork is a fickle thing in that it affects some QBs more than most (i.e. inconsistent throwing platforms/not setting his feet doesn't effect Zach Wilson's ability to throw at all, which is one thing that makes him so special), but when a QB sho                                                                          90lpo;;;
i.ws signs of thinking too much about the pass rush and habitually dropping his eyes rather than allowing feel/instinct/peripheral vision be your guide while keeping your eyes down field, it's going to become very difficult to come back from. Another aspect of this is forcing the ball to the first read without fully evaluating the field - this also often originates out of fear of getting hit. 

 

 

Sam's primary bad habits:

  • sloppy footwork and lower body mechanics that result poor weight transfer/too willing to throw off his back foot (both result in him under throwing balls) 
  • inconsistent decision-making and persistently throwing into coverages he knows (or should know) not to do, mostly due to overconfidence in his abilities and trying to do too much. What's most frustrating about this is that if he just got his footwork under control, he can probably get away with some of these throws, but footwork has been ignored the past 2 years. He seems like he's trying to do too much, which results in him passing up (or not looking for) the wide open 'outlet receiver

Any sense for how the jets view Wilson vs Sam as pure talents? IE who has the higher ceiling 

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8 hours ago, football guy said:

Nothing really. I’m trying not to harass too much because I’ve literally gone out with these people the past 3 weekends. It’s weird; you don’t want to seem too interested/don’t want to give off the impression all you care about is the scoops so have to be a little coy. 

They flip-flopped for the first time 2 weeks ago saying they didn’t think there would be the kind of market they expected for #2 simply because not enough teams in the top 10 willing to pay the premium... since then we’ve gotten the reviews from ZW’s pro-day, Carolina’s apparent reluctance/holding out for Watson, and the price for #3 having been established, I find it highly unlikely they’ll find someone willing to pay what #2 would cost (I’m guessing 3 first-round picks and at least an additional second). It’ll be much easier to trade Darnold for close to FMV than #2, but I won’t rule out a trade entirely. If Carolina gets crazy and makes an official offer within the next week or 2, I think Joe would at least consider it.

One thing that was pretty cool to hear was how they were all zoned in on the pro day last Friday. They had it on the TVs in their office and the people who were there were all zoned in. Said it almost felt like a summer Friday; people were cheering at some of the late throws 

Thanks! I was just thinking a couple things about the Jets and this draft:

1. I think Wilson's pro day was one of the most important Pro Days ever. Because of Covid, there were some real questions that needed to be answered about Zack. I think that there were very real concerns about just how he would measure. Jeremiah said he discussed with someone (maybe even JD) the picture of Zack with Brees for like an hour trying to figure out his height. And there were concerns about his hand size. So getting those boxes checked was super important in his Pro Day. Also, I think it was important to see the velocity of his balls. There is a lot of tape where he zips the ball in there, but a good amount as well where he uses touch, so seeing him be able to drive the ball was important. And he passed that with flying colors obviously. Conversely I don't think anyone really learned anything new in NFL circles from Fields' Pro Day. He was much more a known quantity in measurables and his arm strength was never in doubt. I have not seen this mentioned but I thought Fields came across really poorly in interviews. I always thought he was softs spoken but he came across as smug and gave some really defensive and concerning answers.

2. I think that one connection people are missing in the trades that went down on Friday is that if Philly was willing to go to 3 they were willing to go to 2 and the Jets would have still been in the Top 10 with the likelihood that they could have all but 1 of their top positional ranked players and quite possibly their first. So that is a huge sign they are taking Wilson. (As they should in my opinion)

3. You have been talking about evaluating the complete packages for the Jets such as Zack Wilson vs. Sam and Pitts/Chase/Sewell and 2 or 3 additional picks. Well the Jets have to know that the trades created sort of an inverse set of comparisons for Carolina. which almost eliminates the chance to trade down. 

If SF chooses Jones, then several things happen. First, it great increases the chance that Fields or Lance actually slip to 8. But now Carolina can focus on Cincinatti and Detroit as potential draft draft partners. It is quite possible that for example Carolina could trade to Cincinatti for something like 8, their 2nd and maybe a future 3rd (higher value than chart) 

So the choice becomes Zack Wilson and losing at least 2 ones a 2nd this year and likely another 2nd or 3rd next year versus Lance/Fields and only losing a 2nd and possibly 3rd/4th next year. Wilson is better IMO but Carolina also needs to build around whatever QB they get so they will have to decide if Wilson is worth 2 additional ones and likely another pick. Tough call. I don't think the Jets get an offer for 2 except maybe by Atlanta if they decide they want a QB but with the 49ers trade they likely have a similar choice to Carolina to just get Lance or Fields with any additional draft capital.

4. The other thing I was thinking is this: We know Carolina covets Watson. Realistically I think Watson sits out this year and is traded next season. Philly and Miami might be building up draft capital for that potential trade, but what if Carolina wants the same thing. 

Maybe the Jets consider trading for #8 either in a swap or outright

Swap: Darnold #23 #66 and next years 2nd for 8 and a 4th next year. At 8, even if only 4 QBs go in top 7, that means that only 3 of the Top positional players are gone  they can still get an elite Top 5 level playmaker or OT. If we say that the top playmakers for the Jets would be Chase, Waddle, Deontay (we need a first YAC guy) Pitts Sewell, it is guaranteed that 1 of them are there. To me that is definitely worth essentially a 3rd and a 2nd next year. to move up 15 spots. And lets face it, there could be two trade ups ahead of us and all 5 QBs are gone meaning 2 additional fall to use. Carolina gets Darnold to audition for a year and additional 2nd for Watson trade next year and 23 which they can take a player or even trade into the 2nd for as much as another first next year,

Outright: I might even consider trading for 8 outright: Darnold, Seatlle first and next years 2nd and 66. I would be willing to do this because we could go corner/guard at 23 and maybe another guard at #34 and have an elite OL and an elite playmaker for Zack this year. Think about adding Wilson, DeOntay, Vera Tucker and Landon Dickerson. We could compete next year.

 

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1 hour ago, QB1 said:

Any sense for how the jets view Wilson vs Sam as pure talents? IE who has the higher ceiling 

I don’t know what the Jets scouts think about Wilson compared to Darnold yet other than what we’ve read RE: Douglas “loving” him and that the FO is impressed with him. I’m guessing that they will have a higher grade on him than Darnold coming out because while both guys have the playmaker gene, Wilson takes it to another level with his downfield passing and more consistent accuracy off-platform. As I’ve said in other posts dating back to October, I think Wilson has the most upside of any QB prospect in recent memory—right up there with Mahomes. But like Mahomes, there is a lot of risk associated with him... injury risk, not being able to evaluate him against a rush, not knowing how he’ll adjust to the speed of the game, whether he can control his “yolo” throws/“hospital balls”, what are the leadership traits, how is he going to react to getting hit? All these things are pretty major, and the Jets need to make sure they prepare him for it... he’s not going to get the benefit of sitting his rookie year the way Mahomes/Rodgers did; they’ll have to make a diligent effort to keep him clean and emphasize playing within the offense, expose him to pressure reps without them being detrimental. 

I know that Darnold has produced pretty poorly, but I think just breaking down the tape and identifying why he’s had issues and then projecting him in a new scheme with an average coaching staff and average talent, I’d feel safer with Darnold becoming a solid QB than Wilson. But if both are provided great coaching and great talent, WiLson can be special. They have similar-but-different playing styles in terms of natural athleticism and ability to throw off-platform, but what makes Wilson’s upside greater is his downfield passing ability, which Sam doesn’t possess, and that he’s been more consistently accurate throwing off-platform than Sam has been even dating back to his college days. I think Sam’s escapability is superior, and I think while the stats don’t support it he’s more of a natural feeling the rush while keeping his eyes downfield... we don’t really know how Wilson will be against a pass rush because he didn’t face it often. Sam’s more of a passer who is going to hit guys in-stride and make these wonky plays evading the rush, whereas Wilson is going to throw guys open and make insane, explosive throws downfield that are not coachable. 

So my guess? If they were coming out of college and both in this draft class, the narrative would be that Darnold is the safer prospect but Wilson has more upside. All that being said, I was always told that there’s a possibility they’d have a higher grade on Wilson yet still trade #2 for the sole reason that they really like Darnold and the price a team may pay for #2 would be too hard to pass up, but again, the price of #2 wouldn’t be finalized until they completed their evaluation of the QBs. For all we know Douglas may view Wilson so highly that he ultimately decides against even vetting offers officially, or unofficially tells people the only way you get #2 is for a haul like 3 firsts- and 3-seconds, knowing no one will trade that. But I know going into the offseason the plan was to evaluate what is more valuable to the team; QB Darnold + trade value of #2, or QB #2 + trade value of Darnold 

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

Thanks! I was just thinking a couple things about the Jets and this draft:

1. I think Wilson's pro day was one of the most important Pro Days ever. Because of Covid, there were some real questions that needed to be answered about Zack. I think that there were very real concerns about just how he would measure. Jeremiah said he discussed with someone (maybe even JD) the picture of Zack with Brees for like an hour trying to figure out his height. And there were concerns about his hand size. So getting those boxes checked was super important in his Pro Day. Also, I think it was important to see the velocity of his balls. There is a lot of tape where he zips the ball in there, but a good amount as well where he uses touch, so seeing him be able to drive the ball was important. And he passed that with flying colors obviously. Conversely I don't think anyone really learned anything new in NFL circles from Fields' Pro Day. He was much more a known quantity in measurables and his arm strength was never in doubt. I have not seen this mentioned but I thought Fields came across really poorly in interviews. I always thought he was softs spoken but he came across as smug and gave some really defensive and concerning answers. 

I agree with this in some ways, and Zach is like Sam in the sense that he's bigger than he looks. I don't want to overstate the pro day because at the end of the day that's what it is - a pro day - but I agree that it was more important for Zach than others because teams needed to confirm their evaluations of him and "check the boxes" so to speak. You don't need that as much at the big programs with an NFL pipeline, you do at smaller, private programs like BYU. Also in regards to seeing him throw, you can see his throws on tape and second-guess how much velocity and whether he's throwing guys open or if the level of competition is just not that good; when you go to a pro-day and see his arm live, it's totally different. 

2. I think that one connection people are missing in the trades that went down on Friday is that if Philly was willing to go to 3 they were willing to go to 2 and the Jets would have still been in the Top 10 with the likelihood that they could have all but 1 of their top positional ranked players and quite possibly their first. So that is a huge sign they are taking Wilson. (As they should in my opinion)

I don't really think Philadelphia was serious about moving up, hence why Rap deleted the tweet (people are theorizing it's because he's tipping the Jets pick... I don't buy that). You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what Philadelphia is doing: trying to balance the budget by replacing expensive veterans with cheap talent. Sure, maybe they would have moved up for Zach Wilson because they liked him so much, but no, they were not going to pay the price required to do so, knowing that he'd go #2 whether it be the Jets or someone else. Lets say somehow Zach didn't go #2, the Eagles probably would've called PHI and offered a 2nd round pick to move up 3 spots, nothing more, and they knew that wasn't possible. That's what I think Rap meant. 

3. You have been talking about evaluating the complete packages for the Jets such as Zack Wilson vs. Sam and Pitts/Chase/Sewell and 2 or 3 additional picks. Well the Jets have to know that the trades created sort of an inverse set of comparisons for Carolina. which almost eliminates the chance to trade down. 

If SF chooses Jones, then several things happen. First, it great increases the chance that Fields or Lance actually slip to 8. But now Carolina can focus on Cincinatti and Detroit as potential draft draft partners. It is quite possible that for example Carolina could trade to Cincinatti for something like 8, their 2nd and maybe a future 3rd (higher value than chart) 

So the choice becomes Zack Wilson and losing at least 2 ones a 2nd this year and likely another 2nd or 3rd next year versus Lance/Fields and only losing a 2nd and possibly 3rd/4th next year. Wilson is better IMO but Carolina also needs to build around whatever QB they get so they will have to decide if Wilson is worth 2 additional ones and likely another pick. Tough call. I don't think the Jets get an offer for 2 except maybe by Atlanta if they decide they want a QB but with the 49ers trade they likely have a similar choice to Carolina to just get Lance or Fields with any additional draft capital.

I agree with all of this. Even before went down, Jets people and agents flipped their stance. They cited a lot of reasons between the price and the limited market (only 2 real teams in the top 10 who could pay for such a move), but the second reason is that there are so many more options this year than traditional years (5 legit 1st round prospects) that a team may do exactly what the Jets have done - a cost-benefit analysis to determine what makes more sense: a godfather offer for #2 or taking the next best guy and keeping those assets. SF is interesting in that Kyle Shanahan does what he wants; he doesn't care what others think and he has established himself in that organization enough to be given free reign. I don't think others with QB needs have that same power. 

4. The other thing I was thinking is this: We know Carolina covets Watson. Realistically I think Watson sits out this year and is traded next season. Philly and Miami might be building up draft capital for that potential trade, but what if Carolina wants the same thing. 

Maybe the Jets consider trading for #8 either in a swap or outright

Swap: Darnold #23 #66 and next years 2nd for 8 and a 4th next year. At 8, even if only 4 QBs go in top 7, that means that only 3 of the Top positional players are gone  they can still get an elite Top 5 level playmaker or OT. If we say that the top playmakers for the Jets would be Chase, Waddle, Deontay (we need a first YAC guy) Pitts Sewell, it is guaranteed that 1 of them are there. To me that is definitely worth essentially a 3rd and a 2nd next year. to move up 15 spots. And lets face it, there could be two trade ups ahead of us and all 5 QBs are gone meaning 2 additional fall to use. Carolina gets Darnold to audition for a year and additional 2nd for Watson trade next year and 23 which they can take a player or even trade into the 2nd for as much as another first next year,

Outright: I might even consider trading for 8 outright: Darnold, Seatlle first and next years 2nd and 66. I would be willing to do this because we could go corner/guard at 23 and maybe another guard at #34 and have an elite OL and an elite playmaker for Zack this year. Think about adding Wilson, DeOntay, Vera Tucker and Landon Dickerson. We could compete next year.

This is something to keep an eye on too. I know the Jets view the top 10 as a cut-off in some ways; I think they think there is a drop-off from there. Carolina can add QB talent by trading for Darnold, and if he works out great. If not, they can gear up for a Watson trade if he becomes available, or worst case scenario have future draft capital to position themselves for another QB. 

Great write up. My few comments are above in red 

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