All Page 1 Zach Wilson Threads: MERGED

[AFJF]

Been pulling Wilson clips and thought I'd share some here.  Deep throws, quick reads, pinpoint accuracy, throws from the pocket, throws on the run, throws over the top and throws from different angles to get the ball around oncoming defendrs.

But to make sure we look at the big picture, he wears a headband and is related to somebody who started a successful business which is all super important when evaluating a quarterback.

[AFJF]

Mims and Davis are going to love having this kid under center with their insane wing spans.

[T0mShane]

Jets fans talking themselves into the greatness of a QB prospect who was on the verge of being a college backup six months ago is priceless

[QB1]

Just now, T0mShane said:

Jets fans talking themselves into the greatness of a QB prospect who was on the verge of being a college backup six months ago is priceless

So by that logic Joe Burrow shouldn’t have been drafted 

[freestater]

Holy sh*t, I think YouTube hijacked my phone.

[RedBeardedSavage]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Jets fans talking themselves into the greatness of a QB prospect who was on the verge of being a college backup six months ago is priceless

How many massage therapists would Zack Wilson have to assault for you to support taking him at 2?

[JETSY14]

Look at the competition.  Not quite NFL caliber defenses he is going up against

[BroadwayRay]

An analysis from PFF to go with the vids:

✕

 PFF ›

 Annotations

 

How does BYU's Zach Wilson's 2020 season compare to Joe Burrow's 2019 at LSU? An incredible rise toward the 2021 NFL draft

SETH GALINA DECEMBER 23, 2020

As a part of our partnership with ESPN, this is a part of a story that was originally published on ESPN+ and can be viewed in its entirety here with your ESPN+ subscription –

BYU quarterback Zach Wilson has made a Joe Burrow-like leap from little-known returning starter heading into the 2020 season to surefire first-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft.

Believe it or not, going into the postseason, Wilson sits at a 94.9 Pro Football Focus grade, the same grade Burrow had during his 2019 Heisman campaign at LSU. Burrow ended up being the No. 1 overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals.

The rise to a 90-plus grade was sudden for both quarterbacks. Burrow posted an 80.5 grade in 2018, and Wilson posted a 76.2 in 2019, their first seasons as starters. The jump for both quarterbacks to their superstar seasons was immediate. Burrow didn't post a grade below 80 until Week 8 of 2019; Wilson didn't dip below that number until Week 7 of 2020.

That is where the comparisons end. Their styles of play to get to those gaudy stats couldn't be more different. With former LSU offensive line coach Jeff Grimes calling the plays at BYU, the 2020 version of the Cougars morphed themselves into an outside zone, boot-style offense. In 2019, the outside-zone run accounted for 26% of their running offense. In 2020, they ran it 52% of the time. They also did it often from under center. (BYU plays UCF in the RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN on Tuesday.)

Teams love running outside zone from under center because it helps not only the path for the running back but also the team's ability to use play-action off it. The quarterback who turns his back and stretches to hand the ball to the running back outside will inevitably gain more wide-eyed linebackers following the flow of the offense than one who does so from shotgun.

BYU put Wilson under center for 18% of his total snaps this season. Burrow spent only 2.2% of snaps in 2019 under center. This bodes well for Wilson as the NFL slowly morphs into an under-center, outside-zone league. No NFL team comes close to running outside zone on 52% of its run plays, as BYU does, but 12 teams run it more than 30% of the time. That number could grow in the next few years, as the offensive NFL coaches from those trees seem to be in hot demand.

Coming into the league having already played in a system such as that, in which the play-action game demands you turn your back to the defense and then boot around, could give Wilson a leg up on the quarterbacks who live in the gun and perform only flash fakes to their running backs. Wilson had the fourth-most under-center play-action dropbacks in the country in 2020 and gained a 90.6 passing grade from them, which ranked fourth.

We don't often see high first-round picks fit so nicely in the NFL's offensive meta. Burrow's 2019 season showed his incredible accuracy and decision-making over the middle of the field. Time and time again, he had to drop back and read the defense. Only 27% of Burrow's dropbacks used play-action that season. For Wilson, it was 38%. Both performed at elite levels without the benefit of play-action, Wilson at 92.9 and Burrow at 92.3 in terms of passing grade.

Their differences in arm strength forced Burrow to throw shorter into areas with more defenders. Wilson's average depth of target on such throws was a yard and a half longer than Burrow's. Burrow did thrive in this environment, with a minuscule turnover-worthy play rate of 1.5%. The lack of arm strength relative to that of his peers forced Burrow to become an elite processor to compensate.

Sep 26, 2020; Provo, UT, USA; BYU quarterback Zach Wilson (1) warms up before the start of their NCAA college football game against Troy Saturday, Sept. 26, 2020, in Provo, Utah. Credit: Rick Bowmer/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports

Wilson's arm strength affords him different amenities. Not that Wilson cannot process quickly enough at an NFL level, but he can throw to places that most defenses don't think worthy of stationing a defender on patrol. When the ball was set on the right hash, Wilson threw 29 times to within 10 yards of the left sideline from the pocket, with a passing grade of 90.5. Burrow in 15 games did that only 14 times in 2019, with a 71.8 grade. From the left hash to the right sideline, he threw 38 times with a 96.4 grade, compared to Burrow's 21 attempts and 63.7 grade.

This becomes the crux for all general managers when comparing quarterback talents. Do you take the incredible arm who threw outside the numbers to open receivers or the guy who showed that he can make NFL reads between the numbers but might not have an elite arm?

Wilson will need to get better in the intermediate part of the field, the 10-to-19-yard range. Only 43.5% of his throws to that level of the field were charted as accurate this season. Burrow was at 62.8% last season and has carried his accuracy to the NFL, as he ranked fifth in the league before his injury. But while Burrow threw the ball deep at an exceptional level in college, his deep-ball accuracy in the NFL was lacking. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 passes beyond 20 yards, he was 40th in the percentage of throws charted as accurate.

With Wilson, that's not going to happen. He showed off a great ability to throw deep down the sideline into zone windows. A throw on BYU's last drive against Coastal Carolina showed this off.

Inside his own 10-yard line and facing a second-and-20, Wilson connected with Gunner Romney down the sideline. Coastal showed a two-high safety look pre-snap but rotated into Cover 3 on the snap, with the two-high safeties sitting at the sticks. BYU was running a 3-verts concept on which the two outside receivers run vertical routes outside and a slot receiver finds a hole deep between the safeties. Against two-high safeties, Wilson will look to his first vertical receiver in the hole created by the low corner and the half-field safety and move to the slot receiver if the safety has widened too far to the sideline. Because of the rotation to Cover 3, Coastal covered his first two reads in the progression. Without hesitating, Wilson moved his eyes all the way to his backside vertical receiver, climbed the pocket and made a throw in the hole created between the deep cornerback who had drifted infield a bit and the low flat defender who had started to get depth.

This is the arm strength NFL teams covet. Wilson has it. Now we'll see if he can transition as smoothly to the league as Burrow seemingly did before his injury cut short his rookie season.

 

https://outline.com/TH9asZ

[kdels62]

8 minutes ago, JETSY14 said:

Look at the competition.  Not quite NFL caliber defenses he is going up against

When I watch Justin Fields throw TDs against Rutgers and Trevor Lawrence beats up Wake Forest I always think “wow look at that NFL defense”

[section314]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

When I watch Justin Fields throw TDs against Rutgers and Trevor Lawrence beats up Wake Forest I always think “wow look at that NFL defense”

Throw in Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska and it will even things out.😃

[The Crusher]

23 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Jets fans talking themselves into the greatness of a QB prospect who was on the verge of being a college backup six months ago is priceless

Is it better or worse than trying to convince themselves that the worst QB statistically last year will be our FQB going forward with better weapons and competent coaching? I’m honestly asking because I just don’t know. 

[JETSY14]

5 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

When I watch Justin Fields throw TDs against Rutgers and Trevor Lawrence beats up Wake Forest I always think “wow look at that NFL defense”

What kind of statement is that... Byu's best opponent was coastal Carolina. Look at who Clemson and Ohio State played

[kdels62]

13 minutes ago, JETSY14 said:

What kind of statement is that... Byu's best opponent was coastal Carolina. Look at who Clemson and Ohio State played

Yes. Look at them. Any of them close to Clemson or OSU talent wise? 

Could a super team made up of Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State players match up to Ohio State? 

Clemson is light years ahead of the ACC except Notre Dame. 

There’s a reason why Wilson threw more passes in tight coverage than the other QBs.

[T0mShane]

30 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

How many massage therapists would Zack Wilson have to assault for you to support taking him at 2?

What are the chances that Wilson will put up Watson’s numbers? 

[JetBlue]

26 minutes ago, JETSY14 said:

Look at the competition.  Not quite NFL caliber defenses he is going up against

Did you actually watch some of the passes he made in those videos?  I mean seriously, did you watch them?  Because if you did you would stop with that line of reasoning because there are not too many quarterbacks who can make those throws.  I don't care who he is playing against.  Also the counter argument is wait until he has some real NFL receivers to work with.  I mean really don't know what some of you guys are looking at.  This kid could be a bust because nothing is guaranteed, there also things he will need to work on because it is true that comp on the next level will be a lot tougher.  Having said all of that, his arm talent, decision making, mobility and accuracy IS next level.   Joe Flacco, Ben Rothlisberger, Josh Allen and countless other quarterbacks came from schools who played against "inferior competition" compared to many other quarterbacks but that didn't stop them from becoming top quarterbacks in the league and it won't stop Wilson either. 

[AFJF]

44 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Jets fans talking themselves into the greatness of a QB prospect who was on the verge of being a college backup six months ago is priceless

What exactly does Joe Burrow have to do with any of this?

[Sonny Werblin]

I have no idea whether Wilson will be great, average or bad as an NFL QB. My only hope is that JD makes the right call. 
 

As a lifelong jet fan, it is easy to see the Jets taking Wilson and hearing JD, Saleh, and LaFleur all say they wanted him and they see great things in his future. Flash Foward... after 3 seasons and repeat 4-12 seasons featuring a lot of bad QBing by an often injured Wilson, the entire coaching staff and front office are fired..... its what the jets do.

[Jethead]

30 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

An analysis from PFF to go with the vids:

✕

 PFF ›

 Annotations

 

How does BYU's Zach Wilson's 2020 season compare to Joe Burrow's 2019 at LSU? An incredible rise toward the 2021 NFL draft

SETH GALINA DECEMBER 23, 2020

As a part of our partnership with ESPN, this is a part of a story that was originally published on ESPN+ and can be viewed in its entirety here with your ESPN+ subscription –

BYU quarterback Zach Wilson has made a Joe Burrow-like leap from little-known returning starter heading into the 2020 season to surefire first-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft.

Believe it or not, going into the postseason, Wilson sits at a 94.9 Pro Football Focus grade, the same grade Burrow had during his 2019 Heisman campaign at LSU. Burrow ended up being the No. 1 overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals.

The rise to a 90-plus grade was sudden for both quarterbacks. Burrow posted an 80.5 grade in 2018, and Wilson posted a 76.2 in 2019, their first seasons as starters. The jump for both quarterbacks to their superstar seasons was immediate. Burrow didn't post a grade below 80 until Week 8 of 2019; Wilson didn't dip below that number until Week 7 of 2020.

That is where the comparisons end. Their styles of play to get to those gaudy stats couldn't be more different. With former LSU offensive line coach Jeff Grimes calling the plays at BYU, the 2020 version of the Cougars morphed themselves into an outside zone, boot-style offense. In 2019, the outside-zone run accounted for 26% of their running offense. In 2020, they ran it 52% of the time. They also did it often from under center. (BYU plays UCF in the RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN on Tuesday.)

Teams love running outside zone from under center because it helps not only the path for the running back but also the team's ability to use play-action off it. The quarterback who turns his back and stretches to hand the ball to the running back outside will inevitably gain more wide-eyed linebackers following the flow of the offense than one who does so from shotgun.

BYU put Wilson under center for 18% of his total snaps this season. Burrow spent only 2.2% of snaps in 2019 under center. This bodes well for Wilson as the NFL slowly morphs into an under-center, outside-zone league. No NFL team comes close to running outside zone on 52% of its run plays, as BYU does, but 12 teams run it more than 30% of the time. That number could grow in the next few years, as the offensive NFL coaches from those trees seem to be in hot demand.

Coming into the league having already played in a system such as that, in which the play-action game demands you turn your back to the defense and then boot around, could give Wilson a leg up on the quarterbacks who live in the gun and perform only flash fakes to their running backs. Wilson had the fourth-most under-center play-action dropbacks in the country in 2020 and gained a 90.6 passing grade from them, which ranked fourth.

We don't often see high first-round picks fit so nicely in the NFL's offensive meta. Burrow's 2019 season showed his incredible accuracy and decision-making over the middle of the field. Time and time again, he had to drop back and read the defense. Only 27% of Burrow's dropbacks used play-action that season. For Wilson, it was 38%. Both performed at elite levels without the benefit of play-action, Wilson at 92.9 and Burrow at 92.3 in terms of passing grade.

Their differences in arm strength forced Burrow to throw shorter into areas with more defenders. Wilson's average depth of target on such throws was a yard and a half longer than Burrow's. Burrow did thrive in this environment, with a minuscule turnover-worthy play rate of 1.5%. The lack of arm strength relative to that of his peers forced Burrow to become an elite processor to compensate.

Sep 26, 2020; Provo, UT, USA; BYU quarterback Zach Wilson (1) warms up before the start of their NCAA college football game against Troy Saturday, Sept. 26, 2020, in Provo, Utah. Credit: Rick Bowmer/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports

Wilson's arm strength affords him different amenities. Not that Wilson cannot process quickly enough at an NFL level, but he can throw to places that most defenses don't think worthy of stationing a defender on patrol. When the ball was set on the right hash, Wilson threw 29 times to within 10 yards of the left sideline from the pocket, with a passing grade of 90.5. Burrow in 15 games did that only 14 times in 2019, with a 71.8 grade. From the left hash to the right sideline, he threw 38 times with a 96.4 grade, compared to Burrow's 21 attempts and 63.7 grade.

This becomes the crux for all general managers when comparing quarterback talents. Do you take the incredible arm who threw outside the numbers to open receivers or the guy who showed that he can make NFL reads between the numbers but might not have an elite arm?

Wilson will need to get better in the intermediate part of the field, the 10-to-19-yard range. Only 43.5% of his throws to that level of the field were charted as accurate this season. Burrow was at 62.8% last season and has carried his accuracy to the NFL, as he ranked fifth in the league before his injury. But while Burrow threw the ball deep at an exceptional level in college, his deep-ball accuracy in the NFL was lacking. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 passes beyond 20 yards, he was 40th in the percentage of throws charted as accurate.

With Wilson, that's not going to happen. He showed off a great ability to throw deep down the sideline into zone windows. A throw on BYU's last drive against Coastal Carolina showed this off.

Inside his own 10-yard line and facing a second-and-20, Wilson connected with Gunner Romney down the sideline. Coastal showed a two-high safety look pre-snap but rotated into Cover 3 on the snap, with the two-high safeties sitting at the sticks. BYU was running a 3-verts concept on which the two outside receivers run vertical routes outside and a slot receiver finds a hole deep between the safeties. Against two-high safeties, Wilson will look to his first vertical receiver in the hole created by the low corner and the half-field safety and move to the slot receiver if the safety has widened too far to the sideline. Because of the rotation to Cover 3, Coastal covered his first two reads in the progression. Without hesitating, Wilson moved his eyes all the way to his backside vertical receiver, climbed the pocket and made a throw in the hole created between the deep cornerback who had drifted infield a bit and the low flat defender who had started to get depth.

This is the arm strength NFL teams covet. Wilson has it. Now we'll see if he can transition as smoothly to the league as Burrow seemingly did before his injury cut short his rookie season.

 

https://outline.com/TH9asZ

This is the most compelling case for Wilson I have read to date. Exciting stuff!

[Grandy]

According to people, he was throwing to guys wide open by 10 yards against Florida community college and is totally not a fantastic tight window thrower.

Also according to people, massive improvement and development is actually a bad thing and it's not like the most important thing for a young QB is development. We have a guy who hasn't developed since his redshirt freshman year, and just look at all of our winz.

[FTL Jet Fan]

These are all well and good but can he handle the pressure of playing in NY and being under constant scrutiny. If not none of these arguments matter.

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

What are the chances that Wilson will put up Watson’s numbers? 

If we're talking about Watson's 2020 numbers?

Low.

But the situation on the ground changed, and we have to be able to adapt, no? 

[AFJF]

1 minute ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

These are all well and good but can he handle the pressure of playing in NY and being under constant scrutiny. If not none of these arguments matter.

 

And they apply to whichever QB they take at 2.

[Zachtomims47]

I’m excited to see what he can do but he’s def gonna have a lot of turnovers, thinking he can get away with a lot. 

That second play is so bad, from movement in pocket to throwing it up for grabs. 

[NYJ1]

1 hour ago, AFJF said:

Mims and Davis are going to love having this kid under center with their insane wing spans.

The Jets are going to retain Sammy and trade down out of 2....

[AFJF]

5 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

The Jets are going to retain Sammy and trade down out of 2....

Nope.

[The Crusher]

6 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

The Jets are going to retain Sammy and trade down out of 2....

So why didn’t they take the deal Miami took? Do you think Sam Fran was fine with the third best QB? Have to think they at least asked the Jets first. 

[AFJF]

8 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

I’m excited to see what he can do but he’s def gonna have a lot of turnovers, thinking he can get away with a lot. 

That second play is so bad, from movement in pocket to throwing it up for grabs. 

Funny thing is, every time he throws it "up for grabs", one of his receivers grabs it.  Could it be that he's putting the ball in a spot where only his guy can get it?  A trait Jets fans been screaming for their quarterback to have for years now?

[ryu79]

If we decide to pick Wilson - it is absolutely imperative we address the OL a few times in the early stages of this draft.

His downfield accuracy will be useless if he is on his behind everytime we try to go deep or injured running around behind the kind of protection we've put out there in recent years. 

[dbatesman]

I like that the Jets haven’t even drafted this guy yet but JN already has a camp who hates his guts and a camp who shamelessly capes for him 

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I like that the Jets haven’t even drafted this guy yet but JN already has a camp who hates his guts and a camp who shamelessly capes for him 

Should we see if we can accurately list which posters are going to be in which camps for the next 3 years?

[fullblast]

27 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I have no idea whether Wilson will be great, average or bad as an NFL QB. My only hope is that JD makes the right call. 
 

As a lifelong jet fan, it is easy to see the Jets taking Wilson and hearing JD, Saleh, and LaFleur all say they wanted him and they see great things in his future. Flash Foward... after 3 seasons and repeat 4-12 seasons featuring a lot of bad QBing by an often injured Wilson, the entire coaching staff and front office are fired..... its what the jets do.

Yeah, maybe I’ve just been traumatized by this franchise, but all of this just seems very familiar and it scares the hell out of me.

I think Wilson is a great prospect, it’s the Jets that I’m iffy on.

[Zachtomims47]

7 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Funny thing is, every time he throws it "up for grabs", one of his receivers grabs it.  Could it be that he's putting the ball in a spot where only his guy can get it?  A trait Jets fans been screaming for their quarterback to have for years now?

Hey I’m all for giving your guy a chance. Especially with the rules. Bound to get PI. 
But there’s giving a chance and being stupid. We’ll see. 

[TommyT]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Jets fans talking themselves into the greatness of a QB prospect who was on the verge of being a college backup six months ago is priceless

Please ban TOmShane. His ability to evaluate talent has left the building. Please expedite this request.

[HawkeyeJet]

We've reached the point of the process were there simply no longer be original takes on Wilson.  It's just repackaging the hits.

[BROOKLYN JET]

53 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

What are the chances that Wilson will put up Watson’s numbers? 

He's not going to even come close to 26 masseuses.