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11 minutes ago, bitonti said:

It's maybe on the low side but closer to reality than this hype driven Zach machine. 

note it's not a prediction of where he will be drafted it's a prediction of production in the league. In Zach Wilson's case a borderline starter in the Drew Lock neighborhood 

This is an opinion.  One that goes heavily against the grain.

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Instead of explaining why we shouldn’t trade down ... I’ll just leave this here . U guys will like this @Mogglez @football guy 

Because this thread isn’t the only place where it happens. Post a film review?  It’s a race to see how quickly it can be derailed by children who are upset that the Jets might not get them their

Just say you paid for Matt Waldman’s RSP and be done with it.

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6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Wait until I tell you what paleontologists do for a living sir

So if time travel existed and there were people who actually saw live dinosaurs you’d still listen to a paleontologist over them? 

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5 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Not really closer to reality. Since PFF, Daniel Jeremiah, Chris Simms, QBase and a bunch more have Wilson closer to Lawrence than outside of the top 5 overall. The one bastion of analysis you agree with is not more correct than the consensus. 

what you say is probably true (has QBase come out yet for 2021?)

but like they say in the stock market past performance doesn't guarantee future returns 

side note if we are taking PFF as gospel, they never recorded a lineman better than Penei Sewell 19 season. Quenton Nelson is their all time #2 and Ryan Ramcyzk their all time #3 

according to PFF, Sewell is an instant All Pro 

 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

what you say is probably true (has QBase come out yet for 2021?)

but like they say in the stock market past performance doesn't guarantee future returns 

side note if we are taking PFF as gospel, they never recorded a lineman better than Penei Sewell 19 season. Quenton Nelson is their all time #2 and Ryan Ramcyzk their all time #3 

according to PFF, Sewell is an instant All Pro 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20

It even says that Wilson and Lawrence would be equals depending on if Wilson is taken at 2 (guess that's their way of adjusting for what the NFL thinks of these guys.

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4 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

This is an opinion.  One that goes heavily against the grain.

The grain has been really wrong recently.

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15 minutes ago, bitonti said:

It's maybe on the low side but closer to reality than this hype driven Zach machine. 

note it's not a prediction of where he will be drafted it's a prediction of production in the league. In Zach Wilson's case a borderline starter in the Drew Lock neighborhood 

 

he was higher on Tua than Herbert 

here's his report on Herbert fwiw (found it for free) 

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-rsp-excerpt-oregon-quarterback-justin-herbert

once upon a time he had a 1st rd grade on Russell Wilson 

like anyone else he has his good years and bad but doing anything for 10-20 years adds at least experience if not hard earned lessons 

Closer to reality? Really? You are literally neck and neck with the worst posters on this board. Completely idiotic. And that is definitely very close to reality

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3 minutes ago, QB1 said:

So if time travel existed and there were people who actually saw live dinosaurs you’d still listen to a paleontologist over them? 

I would only heed the first-person testimony of actual dinosaurs.

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

The grain has been really wrong recently.

That depends on who you go against.

QBase, for example, has been pretty on target.  So has Chris Simms.

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

The grain has been really wrong recently.

I have no idea if Wilson will be good and I don’t know that anyone does. The whole system is jacked at this point

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5 minutes ago, QB1 said:

So what’s the gist of why Wilson sucks, he appears to be immensely talented 

Reading the Herbert overview, he seems to be exceedingly specific (like overboard anal) on having the exact mechanics the thinks QBs should have on every throw.

As an example:

Herbert’s wide stance causes him to spray the ball high or lose velocity on targets that need it. His front leg also has a straight knee during his release that bends inward at the end. With his height and flaws with his release form, he may have difficulty correcting this issue and it means teams will have to live with high throws.

Herbert follows through with his legs during his release, but that awkward straight leg may also contribute to him powering through his release with his arm and that unbalanced motion can lead to accuracy flaws.

Even after his initial setup with his short drops, Herbert’s stance is too wide. This is exacerbated further when throwing the late-perimeter routes—patterns where the quarterback makes a late turn to the sideline by design after baiting the defense elsewhere.

So my guess would be in his mind that Zack's motion and mechanics are so fundamentally flawed that he cannot be succesful in the NFL since a large number of his throws are off platform, from odd angles. without set feet, even completely in the air, etc... Jeremiah thinks it is his biggest strength and can make incredibly accurate throws this way, I would think in this guy's mind it is just completely unacceptable. The more rigid a model of throwing mechanics the less likely this guy is to like someone that deviates from it.

Me personally I just look at incredibly fast release, and insanely accurate throws one after another and think there is no issue with his mechanics. One of the coaches I saw said that Wilson has the best hip and upper body throwing mechanics ever, which makes his feet completely irrelevant. Of course Simms also thinks he has the best footwork in the draft.

Maybe he is right and the overwhelming majority of evaluations are wrong. But when Simms, Greg Cossell, Gil Brandt all think Wilson is terrific (and all did not like Sam very much) I am confident that Wilson is an elite prospect.

 

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Just now, Grandy said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20

It even says that Wilson and Lawrence would be equals depending on if Wilson is taken at 2 (guess that's their way of adjusting for what the NFL thinks of these guys.

That adjustment boggles my mind. I get the intent but it almost should be the other way around. Whichever of the 3-5 guys slides and ends up in a good situation has a real chance to be the most productive QB in this class. At least that’s what we’ve been seeing recently.

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Just now, bitonti said:

what you say is probably true (has QBase come out yet for 2021?)

but like they say in the stock market past performance doesn't guarantee future returns 

side note if we are taking PFF as gospel, they never recorded a lineman better than Penei Sewell 19 season. Quenton Nelson is their all time #2 and Ryan Ramcyzk their all time #3 

according to PFF, Sewell is an instant All Pro 

 

Not instant. Since PFF always states that OL tend to struggle for their first season. PFF is a resource and a good one. Wilson put up a historic PFF season   , 2nd highest of all time. That’s worth the pick. 

QBase was posted here. Basically, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are high end/ safe prospects.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20

 

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12 minutes ago, QB1 said:

So what’s the gist of why Wilson sucks, he appears to be immensely talented 

Wilson's short accuracy is great but his intermediate and long accuracy are not as pinpoint as people say. Aspects like off platform throwing abilities and mobile throwing accuracy doesn't match the reputation and he uses like every throw in CFB to back it up. like he's got tables and tables of all the different types of throws etc.  He quantifies good throws as pinpoint accurate 

he does say Wilson excels at back shoulder type throws and has other nice things to say about him. But again, I'm not going to rip the dude off for months worth of work. 

 

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5 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Not instant. Since PFF always states that OL tend to struggle for their first season. PFF is a resource and a good one. Wilson put up a historic PFF season   , 2nd highest of all time. That’s worth the pick. 

QBase was posted here. Basically, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are high end/ safe prospects.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20

 

well, pretty much instant because Quenton Nelson had their best season ever until Sewell and he was an instant All pro, the only one for like the last 20 years 

Ryan Ramcyzk made all pro his 2nd-4th years but only made all rookie as a 1st year 

PFF is saying Sewell's tape is better than Quenton Nelson 

Sewell is also the only true sophomore to ever win the Outland Trophy. 

 

this is the last line of Zach Wilson's Qbase blurb (thanks for the link BTW) 

 

Quote

 Having said that, in addition to one-year wonder and schedule concerns, which we have accounted for, there are also durability concerns with Wilson that are harder to quantify but are still worth taking into consideration.

 

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32 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Again, I don’t care about the opinion of a borderline troll of a poster who stole another person’s username to hide from the mods/circumvent a ban.  Since my past track record gets brought up quite a bit, I’ll remind everyone of yours (from your other account), once again:

D1B86C1F-5DAA-4194-9A5B-244BD7F7A90D.thumb.jpeg.8ba982af29b814a8ef96b15cb13e03d7.jpegEBB75F5D-6A66-4082-B98C-4A6DF715387A.jpeg.8beee662e594f9a722bed2cd5412e474.jpeg751A5D28-C1F7-4E50-9920-899951A82DB3.jpeg.779bc5513ff0f796924d64d1c598726a.jpegE74C2DE4-18BB-4CEC-9D9F-4A3BA0C74812.thumb.jpeg.ee592f6bc07f776e84b8c41a7df0fd2a.jpeg
 

Wilson will be a stud confirmed.

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

well, pretty much instant because Quenton Nelson had their best season ever until Sewell and he was an instant All pro, the only one for like the last 20 years 

Ryan Ramcyzk made all pro his 2nd-4th years but only made all rookie as a 1st year 

PFF is saying Sewell's tape is better than Quenton Nelson 

Sewell is also the only true sophomore to ever win the Outland Trophy. 

No one is debating whether Sewell is good or not but you can’t say “has higher score is instantly better” since most of the rest of the company at the top has had a learning curve. Plus there’s a variable that Sewell hasn’t played in a year. The debate is whether a historically productive QB prospect is worth more than a historically unprecedented OL prospect. It’s not really up for debate especially since the LT we already have is one of the high end performance outliers in the pros. Becton’s rookie year PFF grade is a good indicator that he’s gonna have a very good career.

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7 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

QBase, for example, has been pretty on target.  

QBase's highest score of all time was Marcus Mariota 

They also gave Baker Mayfield an astronomically high score and gave Josh Allen a grade in the Jimmy Clausen tier 

 

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2 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Did JD promise to Zach’s parents to take care of and protect Zach like he did with Sam’s parents?  

Of course. It’s called recruiting   
 

you think Clemson keeps all of the living room promises?  lol

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IMO, the biggest concern for Wilson is inconsistency on short throws. It's weird.

His intermediate and deep passing are very advanced, however when throwing short it gets inconsistent. Going through tape, he sailed wayyyy more passes under 5 yards out compared to 35 yards out in which is was practically always on point.

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9 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yes:

BC17DB25-8F66-4D2E-853E-682F84BFCCF6.jpeg.39d88f21175740ec91e03420f4aafacb.jpegE9FEE849-921E-40B9-BD15-513DA2F3A3F0.jpeg.352ff0cf15940fba0163f8aeb45dede3.jpeg8AE5F2E8-CD7B-4EE8-A253-2C078440B732.jpeg.e7add7ec46b2b9f42d27fd4041aa605e.jpeg7A85DD3F-A777-4D83-9BD4-1B79F244C00F.jpeg.15b78114382e8ffe10ba604d8c8fac16.jpeg2FAF752C-3F86-4D07-AC43-C9D22327BEA8.jpeg.3dce83130c1d688fb9e03acb462792c0.jpeg

I am not a huge fan of the DVAR concept as it tends to be somewhat circular, however, QBASE has been very good at predicting busts. Its about 50/50 on elite but very good on busts. If I were the Jets, this statistic would give me a slightly more comfortable feeling about the pick. I wouldn't use it as a deciding factor but his low failure projection is a good check box to have. As is the PFF, Sims, Cossell nods especially since these were the main evaluations that were not super high on Sam last time. Simms liked Sam but saw potential issues, Cossell hated  Sam.

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Just now, kdels62 said:

No one is debating whether Sewell is good or not but you can’t say “has higher score is instantly better” since most of the rest of the company at the top has had a learning curve. Plus there’s a variable that Sewell hasn’t played in a year. The debate is whether a historically productive QB prospect is worth more than a historically unprecedented OL prospect. It’s not really up for debate especially since the LT we already have is one of the high end performance outliers in the pros. Becton’s rookie year PFF grade is a good indicator that he’s gonna have a very good career.

Im pretty sure Becton's rookie PFF grade was mediocre, had him about 32nd out of 64th (i don't have a PFF sub) 

Becton is a high quality run blocker who gets beat in pass protection and was hampered by injury for about a quarter of the season (missed two games, played hurt two others) His PFF score is like in the 70's i believe. 

Yes they gave Zach Wilson their highest score of all time like a 95, what I'm saying is they gave Sewell the highest OL score of all time as well a 92. If PFF is gospel then yes a 95 < 92  again that's Zach over Sewell i'm just pointing out how ridiculously elite Sewell is and how not just the Jets but the rest of the league probably won't have another shot at an OL this good for another generation 

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12 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yes:

BC17DB25-8F66-4D2E-853E-682F84BFCCF6.jpeg.39d88f21175740ec91e03420f4aafacb.jpegE9FEE849-921E-40B9-BD15-513DA2F3A3F0.jpeg.352ff0cf15940fba0163f8aeb45dede3.jpeg8AE5F2E8-CD7B-4EE8-A253-2C078440B732.jpeg.e7add7ec46b2b9f42d27fd4041aa605e.jpeg7A85DD3F-A777-4D83-9BD4-1B79F244C00F.jpeg.15b78114382e8ffe10ba604d8c8fac16.jpeg2FAF752C-3F86-4D07-AC43-C9D22327BEA8.jpeg.3dce83130c1d688fb9e03acb462792c0.jpeg

Hey where does Miles Davis or whatever his name is rank? That is the qb ranked 5 AHEAD of Wilson according some goofy “expert”

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Just now, bitonti said:

Im pretty sure Becton's rookie PFF grade was mediocre, had him about 32nd out of 64th (i don't have a PFF sub) 

Becton is a high quality run blocker who gets beat in pass protection and was hampered by injury for about a quarter of the season (missed two games, played hurt two others) His PFF score is like in the 70's i believe. 

Yes they gave Zach Wilson their highest score of all time like a 95, what I'm saying is they gave Sewell the highest OL score of all time as well a 92. If PFF is gospel then yes a 95 < 92  again that's Zach over Sewell i'm just pointing out how ridiculously elite Sewell is and how not just the Jets but the rest of the league probably won't have another shot at an OL this good for another generation 

Unless they somehow draft Slater first. 

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1 minute ago, Mogglez said:

That depends on who you go against.

QBase, for example, has been pretty on target.  So has Chris Simms.

I had interpreted the grain to be popular opinion i.e. who goes high. Best guys have gone outside the top 5.

Big meh to QBase. The best QB’s in the league have middling projections and the guys with the best projections aren’t elite. The new model still hates Allen too so while they say the big value is projecting busts, not so sure I agree.

Simms seems to flip flop some and doesn’t have a particularly long track record. It’ll be more interesting when he’s got more data.

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16 minutes ago, The Engineer said:

Closer to reality? Really? You are literally neck and neck with the worst posters on this board. Completely idiotic. And that is definitely very close to reality

"You are without a doubt the worst pirate I have ever heard of" 

 

"but you have heard of me." 

johnny depp GIF

 

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4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Im pretty sure Becton's rookie PFF grade was mediocre, had him about 32nd out of 64th (i don't have a PFF sub) 

Becton is a high quality run blocker who gets beat in pass protection and was hampered by injury for about a quarter of the season (missed two games, played hurt two others) His PFF score is like in the 70's i believe. 

Yes they gave Zach Wilson their highest score of all time like a 95, what I'm saying is they gave Sewell the highest OL score of all time as well a 92. If PFF is gospel then yes a 95 < 92  again that's Zach over Sewell i'm just pointing out how ridiculously elite Sewell is and how not just the Jets but the rest of the league probably won't have another shot at an OL this good for another generation 

Yes, but you also need to factor in positional value.  The value of a high end QB trump's that of a High end or All Pro tackle.  Only 1 QB can play at a time, there are 4 other lineman and a TE that can help support pass and run blocking.

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Damn what a kick in the nuts for 9er fans for your team to trade up to 3 overall, just for you’re “smarter than everyone in the room” HC to sit there and select Mac freaking Jones

Omg I would be livid If I was a 9er fan rn.  No wonder Kittle wants to keep Jimmy G  🤣🤣🤣🤣

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4 hours ago, slats said:

He was never offered SF's package, and likely didn't want it, anyway. If we're to believe @football guy's posts, JD does not want to drop out of the top ten. 

What I think is that they like Zach Wilson, but are still eying the trade down possibility. If they don't get what they want for the pick, they'll take the QB and adjust accordingly. But if Carolina blinks and gives Douglas what he wants, the Jets are probably choosing between Slater and Waddle (I'd take the WR because I believe the falloff is greater at that position) at #8, and then have #23, 34 & 39 to complete the OL and maybe draft an Edge, too. And that's all before picking twice in the third round. 

My unpopular opinion is that it would be better for Saleh and LaFluer to install their program with Darnold rather than having all that focus on a rookie QB. I think Darnold could be at least a middle of the pack QB in this offense with those kinds of pieces around him. Jets would then have five first round picks over 2022 & 2023 and comfortable cap room to decide whether they want to resign Sam or swing for another QB. If Darnold sucks, they'll have a high pick to work with. 

To add to this, Cimini basically said that the Jets were unwilling to negotiate a trade at the time the 49ers were looking to. Would listen, but not engage in counter offers. Which has been Douglas’s stance with Darnold as well. 

Come April 9-12, I believe the will make an internal decision which they prefer to go whether it be put #2 on the block, put Darnold on the block, or both. I think they already know the market for #2 is limited, with *likely* SF and CAR as the only shoppers. Darnold on the other hand should have more suitors despite all being quiet on that front

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19 minutes ago, bitonti said:

QBase's highest score of all time was Marcus Mariota 

They also gave Baker Mayfield an astronomically high score and gave Josh Allen a grade in the Jimmy Clausen tier 

 

I’m not saying they are flawless by any means, I’m just saying they have a pretty good hit rate.

Also, and this is just my opinion, I think Mariota can be an adequate starter in this league and Baker is a pretty good QB.  The reason I like QBASE is that they give percentages of what they think the prospect can be.

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27 minutes ago, derp said:

I had interpreted the grain to be popular opinion i.e. who goes high. Best guys have gone outside the top 5.

Big meh to QBase. The best QB’s in the league have middling projections and the guys with the best projections aren’t elite. The new model still hates Allen too so while they say the big value is projecting busts, not so sure I agree.

Simms seems to flip flop some and doesn’t have a particularly long track record. It’ll be more interesting when he’s got more data.

A predictive measure isn’t gonna change because something improbably happened. He’s an outlier. Those exist. Altering the metric to correct for the outlier is not more accurate.

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7 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

A predictive measure isn’t gonna change because something improbably happened. He’s an outlier. Those exist. Altering the metric to correct for the outlier is not more accurate.

Overall, Qbase seems the best at picking out busts as opposed to picking out stars. Though there have been some money shots like Russell Wilson. However it is true that everybody and every model misfires at times.

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