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32 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Look, I definitely don't want to go back and forth on this..

But yes, if he continues to throw the ball to 1-on-1's and those passes are getting INT'd and he continues it, that's a problem.

He was throwing a lot of back shoulders and often threw jump balls (part of my concerns as well) his receivers were making those plays.  Should he have stopped because that might not work in the NFL?  

It was clearly working for him.  His guys were winning those battles and he was putting the ball into a position for them to do so.

So if you're criticism is - your worried that a lot of his success was simply because he was throwing the ball into 1-on-1 and without that he's going to have a hard time at the NFL level - I'm good with that concern.  As I stated, I actually share it to some degree.  

But if the point is that he was doing that successfully in college but in the NFL they'll get intercepted and he'll continue to do it anyway is just, IMO, silly.

 

Side note: Davis and Mims are taylor made for those back shoulder,  jump ball - anticipation type plays...the fit is amazing and likely not by accident.

I don’t think it’s a fair concern if you’re talking about the guy anywhere from the mid first round on.

I think it’s reasonable to question how you could have an evaluation that’s concrete enough to take a guy number two overall with those unanswerable questions muddying things. Especially when the roster is...not in the best of shape.

And those guys are okay wide receivers but I don’t think they’re consistently winning those plays against NFL caliber corners.

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Instead of explaining why we shouldn’t trade down ... I’ll just leave this here . U guys will like this @Mogglez @football guy 

Because this thread isn’t the only place where it happens. Post a film review?  It’s a race to see how quickly it can be derailed by children who are upset that the Jets might not get them their

Just say you paid for Matt Waldman’s RSP and be done with it.

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19 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Those of us that have been following the draft for a few years know of Waldman & Schofield.  They are mainstays of the draftnik community and podcast circuit.  

Oh my! Well that changes EVERYTHING!

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2 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Oh my! Well that changes EVERYTHING!

Doesn’t change anything. Do you disagree with their assessment or are you just going to continue to play the “wHo tHe HeLl aRe ThEy?” game?

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7 minutes ago, derp said:

I am in the taking a QB at 2 is stupid camp.

Why do the Wilson fans take questions about him so personally?

I don't take criticisms of him personally. Why do you take it so personally that people criticize some of critics and the "analytics" used against him, i.e. "Der, if that pass was thrown in the NFL it would have been intercepted, yup, yup!" That kind of stuff is worthless and stupid -- as is thinking the Jets shouldn't draft a top rated QB at #2 (yup, yup).

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Just now, BroadwayRay said:

I don't take criticisms of him personally. Why do you take it so personally that people criticize some of critics and the "analytics" used against him, i.e. "Der, if that pass was thrown in the NFL it would have been intercepted, yup, yup!" That kind of stuff is worthless and stupid -- as is thinking the Jets shouldn't draft a top rated QB at #2 (yup, yup).

You’re not taking it personal at all (yup, yup). 

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3 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Doesn’t change anything. Do you disagree with their assessment or are you just going to continue to play the “wHo tHe HeLl aRe ThEy?” game?

II disagree with some of their assessments, yes, and don't dispute others. Pointing out missing reads is valid (although it is some degree cherry picking since you can find that type of thing with all college QBs, as well as NFL QBs. In the final analysis, it doesn't mean much). But I've seen so many "analysts" cherry pick completed passes that they try to argue would be intercepted in the NFL it's hilarious. Making that argument undercuts all credibiliity. Why? Because he wasn't throwing the ******* pass in the NFL! 

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1 minute ago, BroadwayRay said:

II disagree with some of their assessments, yes, and don't dispute others. Pointing out missing reads is valid (although it is some degree cherry picking since you can find that type of thing with all college QBs, as well as NFL QBs. In the final analysis, it doesn't mean much). But I've seen so many "analysts" cherry pick completed passes that they try to argue would be intercepted in the NFL it's hilarious. Making that argument undercuts all credibiliity. Why? Because he wasn't throwing the ******* pass in the NFL! 

JT O’Sullivan has made similar observations/comments so has he lost his credibility too?

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6 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

I don't take criticisms of him personally. Why do you take it so personally that people criticize some of critics and the "analytics" used against him, i.e. "Der, if that pass was thrown in the NFL it would have been intercepted, yup, yup!" That kind of stuff is worthless and stupid -- as is thinking the Jets shouldn't draft a top rated QB at #2 (yup, yup).

I don’t take it personally. I think the criticisms of the criticisms are flawed and calling them worthless and stupid shows a lack of understanding of how projecting prospects works.

And the recent track record of taking highly rated QB’s at #2 is terrible. So there’s that, too.

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1 hour ago, Jetsbb said:

Interestingly enough that stop shop in NJ seems to be the reason why Zach followed Quinnen and Perrine specifically. Looking at mutual followers of the stopshop page and look at that Perrine and Quinnen come up.

He already put an order in 🤫🤫🤫 lol 

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3 hours ago, Morrissey said:

“Relatively respect youtube evaluators” LOL 

According to who? The video you posted has just over 800 views. The QB School guys last Zach Wilson video has 140k+

 

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Terrible critisism.

First off, who are these guys?

Second, it's clear one of them came in with an agenda

 

Take this as earnest constructive Feedback... It's not a good look to be "championing" the intricacies/naunces of Wilson's game and at the same time not have a clue who someone like Matt Waldman is. Unless you got here by way of coaching QBs in highschool or something, then at least appreciate that a guy like Matt has likely forgotten more about the position than you know/will know.

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23 minutes ago, Paradis said:

 

Take this as earnest constructive Feedback... It's not a good look (being polite) for someone to be "championing" the intricacies/naunces of Wilson's game and at the same time not have a clue who someone like Matt Waldman is. Unless you got here by way coaching QBs in highschool or something, then at least appreciate that a guy like Matt has likely forgotten more about the position than you know/will know.

Look. I hear ya.  I really don’t who he is and he has every right to his opinion.  I’m sure he’s a smart man and knowledgeable.  I’ll certainly take your word for it that he truly knows what he’s talking about.

With that said, it doesn’t change the fact that it was a dumb criticism.

and to take it a step further, if a man that knowledgeable has to go to this length to justify his opinion - I think that’s quite good news for ZW.  

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3 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Look. I hear ya.  I really don’t who he is and he has every right to his opinion.  I’m sure he’s smart man and knowledgeable.  I’ll certainly take your word for it that’s he truly knows what he’s talking about.

With that said, it doesn’t change the fact that it was a dumb criticism.

and to take it a step further, if a man that knowledgeable has to go to this length to justify his opinion - I think that’s quite good news for ZW.  

That’s quite the Dance Dancing GIF by AFV Pets

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7 minutes ago, legler82 said:

JT O’Sullivan has made similar observations/comments so has he lost his credibility too?

For that particular video, yes. It was a joke. He put a few passes under the microscope, most of them completed, and tried to suggest NFL defenders would have intercepted or defended them in some parallel universe.  Fantasy-based analytics -- gotta love it. And I've seen most of his QB videos. I'm not saying Wilson is perfect, but this happens whenever media hype starts building for a particular candidate -- the Youtubers, podcasters, etc., go hunting for flaws so they can stand out among the crowd. Fact is, Wilson had the best passer rating in college football for tight-window throws last season. If these geniuses are trying to argue that this was merely because of the competition he faced, fine, run with it. I happen to think their evidence is contrived and idiotic. In any case, we'll find out who's right soon enough.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, derp said:

And the recent track record of taking highly rated QB’s at #2 is terrible. So there’s that, too.

People who embrace this type of outlook need to take a lesson from the world of investing. In the U.S., all brokers and investment are required to provide their clients with the following disclaimer when selling products:

Please  remember  that  past  performance  may  not  be  indicative  of  future  results.

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10 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

For that particular video, yes. It was a joke. He put a few passes under the microscope, most of them completed, and tried to suggest NFL defenders would have intercepted or defended them in some parallel universe.  Fantasy-based analytics -- gotta love it. And I've seen most of his QB videos. I'm not saying Wilson is perfect, but this happens whenever media hype starts building for a particular candidate -- the Youtubers, podcasters, etc., go hunting for flaws so they can stand out among the crowd. Fact is, Wilson had the best passer rating in college football for tight-window throws last season. If these geniuses are trying to argue that this was merely because of the competition he faced, fine, run with it. I happen to think their evidence is contrived and idiotic. In any case, we'll find out who's right soon enough.

 

 

So based on your evaluation that PFF stat gives you confidence that Wilson will be able to complete the same tight window passes in the NFL that he did against the likes of North Alabama, Navy, University of Texas San Antonio and the like?

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5 minutes ago, legler82 said:

So based on your evaluation that PFF stat gives you confidence that Wilson will be able to complete the same tight window passes in the NFL that he did against the likes of North Alabama, Navy, University of Texas San Antonio and the like?

If everything with you boils down to "All the good things Wilson did in college are invalid because it was against small schools," then it's a waste of time carrying on this debate. 

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12 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

People who embrace this type of outlook need to take a lesson from the world of investing. In the U.S., all brokers and investment are required to provide their clients with the following disclaimer when selling products:

Please  remember  that  past  performance  may  not  be  indicative  of  future  results.

Yes, and the way NFL teams evaluate and develop quarterbacks is just like investing.

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Side note. Can we stop pretending like nfl CBS are some different species than what you see in college? CB play in the NFL is putrid, historically bad. These guys make it sound like you like up against all pro secondaries every week. WRs are better too by the way,,. 

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3 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

If everything with you boils down to "All the good things Wilson did in college are invalid because it was against small schools," then it's a waste of time carrying on this debate. 

Not everything just some of those cross boundary and/or double coverage highly contested/50/50/jump balls.  I don’t know of any QB in the NFL that’s successful with a steady diet of those kind of throws.  Not even Mahomes but then again Mahomes wasn’t good enough to be the consensus #2 overall.

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50 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t think it’s a fair concern if you’re talking about the guy anywhere from the mid first round on.

I think it’s reasonable to question how you could have an evaluation that’s concrete enough to take a guy number two overall with those unanswerable questions muddying things. Especially when the roster is...not in the best of shape.

And those guys are okay wide receivers but I don’t think they’re consistently winning those plays against NFL caliber corners.

All of these guys have concerns. There’s no perfect prospect.  There are real concerns with Lawrence and even more with Fields. 

I think as a GM you have to evaluate these prospect with film, interviews, judge there knowledge, commitment to game etc. and make a determination of his value.  
ZW clearly had tremendous upside, his skill is ideally suited for today’s NFL.  
 

As knowledgeable as the guy from the video is, I have to believe JD is more knowledgeable and certainly has access to MUCH more information.  

Can ZW be a failure, absolutely - does he have the talent to be a top 5 QB, IMO, absolutely. If you believe the latter than he is absolutely worthy of the #1 let pick alone #2.  
 

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41 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Look. I hear ya.  I really don’t who he is and he has every right to his opinion.  I’m sure he’s a smart man and knowledgeable.  I’ll certainly take your word for it that he truly knows what he’s talking about.

With that said, it doesn’t change the fact that it was a dumb criticism.

and to take it a step further, if a man that knowledgeable has to go to this length to justify his opinion - I think that’s quite good news for ZW.  

I didn't watch the video - don't even know what the conversation is tbh.... just saying to be cognizant of who you're calling out like that. Matt runs the RSP (rookie scouting portfolio) and is true worshipper of the craft. 

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4 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Side note. Can we stop pretending like nfl CBS are some different species than what you see in college? CB play in the NFL is putrid, historically bad. These guys make it sound like you like up against all pro secondaries every week. WRs are better too by the way,,. 

It’s more than just the CBs.  It’s also NFL caliber defensive linemen rushing, NFL the defensive coordinators and the coverages.  Tim Jenkins, a big Wilson supporter, is the only person I’ve seen point out how Zach faced pretty much nothing but stagnant coverages all season.  Meaning what he saw pre-snap stayed the same post.  The other top QBs not named Trey Lance didn’t have that luxury.  The rare times he did get some changing coverages post snap he struggled.  So it’s a combination of things.

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12 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Not everything just some of those cross boundary and/or double coverage highly contested/50/50/jump balls.  I don’t know of any QB in the NFL that’s successful with a steady diet of those kind of throws.  Not even Mahomes but then again Mahomes wasn’t good enough to be the consensus #2 overall.

Oh man, show the consistency at which he makes those throws. Seriously, like show them to me. Zach Wilson highlights are some insane throws but they make up a small amount of what he throws in a game. Show me the 50/50s.

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5 minutes ago, legler82 said:

It’s more than just the CBs.  It’s also NFL caliber defensive linemen rushing, NFL the defensive coordinators and the coverages.  Tim Jenkins, a big Wilson supporter, is the only person I’ve seen point out how Zach faced pretty much nothing but stagnant coverages all season.  Meaning what he saw pre-snap stayed the same post.  The other top QBs not named Trey Lance didn’t have that luxury.  The rare times he did get some changing coverages post snap he struggled.  So it’s a combination of things.

Sure, but that has nothing to do with the hypothetical criticism of 1 on 1 “jump balls” and out routes being picked in the NFL

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Just now, Paradis said:

I didn't watch the video - don't even know what the conversation is tbh.... just saying to be cognizant of you're calling out like that. Matt runs the RSP (rookie scouting portfolio) and is true worshipper of the craft. 

You did note. I initially referenced I didn’t know him.  
And I was simply pointing out his criticism is that video. IMO, It was weak - at least from the plays he chose to highlight.  

I honestly think if you watched the video you would come away with a similar sentiment- if you were being fair.

 I don’t doubt that he doesn’t love ZW as much as many and I don’t doubt he has legitimate reasons for it, just would have preferred they were highlighted in a better way. 
 

I’ll leave it alone from here. 
 

 

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12 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Not everything just some of those cross boundary and/or double coverage highly contested/50/50/jump balls.  I don’t know of any QB in the NFL that’s successful with a steady diet of those kind of throws.  Not even Mahomes but then again Mahomes wasn’t good enough to be the consensus #2 overall.

Contested 50/50 jump balls are what they are, whether they be in pee wee leagues, college or the NFL. If Zach Wilson was throwing a steady diet of those types of passes, then half of them would have been intercepted or batted down. It’s not like he had an all-star cast of receivers to tilt his completion odds.  

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6 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I didn't watch the video - don't even know what the conversation is tbh.... just saying to be cognizant of who you're calling out like that. Matt runs the RSP (rookie scouting portfolio) and is true worshipper of the craft. 

I just started listening to his stuff and it’s good, I like him. My friend used to work at football guys and he tells me he’s by far the smartest guy they have. That doesn’t mean he’s always right, I believe he missed badly on Herbert last year.

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5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

All of these guys have concerns. There’s no perfect prospect.  There are real concerns with Lawrence and even more with Fields. 

I think as a GM you have to evaluate these prospect with film, interviews, judge there knowledge, commitment to game etc. and make a determination of his value.  
ZW clearly had tremendous upside, his skill is ideally suited for today’s NFL.  
 

As knowledgeable as the guy from the video is, I have to believe JD is more knowledgeable and certainly has access to MUCH more information.  

Can ZW be a failure, absolutely - does he have the talent to be a top 5 QB, IMO, absolutely. If you believe the latter than he is absolutely worthy of the #1 let pick alone #2.  
 

I agree with most of your first and second paragraphs and all of your third. Just not your conclusion.  

I think it’s hard to project Fields and Lawrence - all quarterbacks are hard to project - but harder to project Wilson.

And I don’t think it’s prudent for a team that doesn’t have a good infrastructure in place to develop a quarterback to spend premium draft capital on a guy who’s as complicated to evaluate as Wilson.

I would even feel significantly better should they decide he’s going to sit for a year (like the superstars he gets compared to did) while they get things in order, but I doubt that’s going to happen.

I would love to be wrong.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

Yes, and the way NFL teams evaluate and develop quarterbacks is just like investing.

Except with the NFL draft QB evaluations there’s not much projecting.  It’s all about who’s “most ready” (air quotes) as if most of these QBs are ever really ready.  Peyton Manning was arguably the most mentally prepared QB prospect ever and he set the INT record his first year.  Rich Eisen several times has told the story of how Marshall Faulk told him that in the film sessions following every game Peyton threw 1 or more INTs he would say “I didn’t think DB could get there”.   At some point a fed Marshall Faulk screamed at Peyton “THIS IS THE NFL; THEY CAN ALL GET THERE!”.

Interestingly enough in recent draft history it’s been the guys perceived as needing time to develop the mental part of the game that have ended up fairing better (see Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Herbert...etc.).  The old school slow to change NFL still haven’t noticed the trend that it’s the guys that can rely of their physical gifts (arm strength, mobility...etc.) as they develop that are making it.  It’s still about who is “most ready” when no one ever is.

.

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20 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Contested 50/50 jump balls are what they are, whether they be in pee wee leagues, college or the NFL. If Zach Wilson was throwing a steady diet of those types of passes, then half of them would have been intercepted or batted down. It’s not like he had an all-star cast of receivers to tilt his completion odds.  

He will find out soon enough what he can and can not get away with in the NFL.  Everyone short of having the Mahomes type of arm talent goes through that.  I told the Peyton story in an earlier post.  The question will be what he does when he finds out.  Darnold found out and kept on trying the same sh*t.

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18 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Except with the NFL draft QB evaluations there’s not much projecting.  It’s all about who’s “most ready” (air quotes) as if most of these QBs are every ready.  Peyton Manning was arguably the most mentally prepared QB prospect ever and he set the INT record his first year.  Rich Eisen several times has told the story of how Marshall Faulk told him that in the film sessions after every Peyton threw 1 or more INT, he would say “I didn’t the DB could get there”.   At some point a fed Marshall Faulk screamed at Peyton “THIS IS THE NFL; THEY CAN ALL GET THERE!”.

Interestingly enough in recent draft history it’s been the guys perceived as needing time to develop the mental part of the game that have ended up fairing better (see Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Herbert...etc.).  The old school slow to change NFL still haven’t noticed the trend that it’s the guys that can rely of there physical gifts (arm strength, mobility...etc.) as they develop that are making it.  It’s still about who is “most ready” when no one ever is really.

I largely agree with this post, was being sarcastic in the one you quoted. Particularly agree with the end. Doesn’t guarantee they’ll make it but allows them to be productive along the way.

Still think teams should sit guys more.

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25 minutes ago, derp said:

I agree with most of your first and second paragraphs and all of your third. Just not your conclusion.  

I think it’s hard to project Fields and Lawrence - all quarterbacks are hard to project - but harder to project Wilson.

And I don’t think it’s prudent for a team that doesn’t have a good infrastructure in place to develop a quarterback to spend premium draft capital on a guy who’s as complicated to evaluate as Wilson.

I would even feel significantly better should they decide he’s going to sit for a year (like the superstars he gets compared to did) while they get things in order, but I doubt that’s going to happen.

I would love to be wrong.

I disagree.  I think Wilson is an easy evaluation as is Mac Jones then Trevor Lawrence to a lesser degree.  Hence why their pre-draft mock slots are less volatile.  Fields and Lance for more valid reasons (i.e., 1 game last season, 1 full season, level of competition...etc.) some projecting.  NFL evaluators are scared to death of projecting which is weird as I always thought that was part of the evaluation process.  They couldn’t see beyond Mahomes air raid system, Allen’s CMP%, Herbert’s lack of refinement.  

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Don't understand this argument on the jump balls. He threw three pics (and one of those was a throw away hail mary play at the end of a half). 

Even controlling for caliber of opposition, with the amount the kid threw the ball downfield he must have developed excellent chemistry with his receivers and throw to a good spot in order for his guys to come down with it that frequently (given that his completion percentage was also exceptional). 

This argument comes to the same as the Field's doesn't get past first read one to me - you can't fault people for doing something that works for them, unless you don't think they can do the thing required if the d took that option away. 

Wilson was accurate at all distances and has plenty of arm for tight quarters. 

If he fails here will have more to do with how we coach and support (honestly, same as if we went Fields, these are talented kids). 

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