Jump to content

The Draft Wilson/Keep Darnold, too, Hypothesis Thread


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 231
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

If no serious offers for Sam, start him and let Wilson learn.   This has been done everywhere... mahomes, herbert, tua, mayfield, lamar.      

This idea has been kicked around a little bit but it seems to be getting more legs lately.  Some points being made in the linked video below... If the Jets keep Darnold and he departs after ne

IMO if we take Wilson it would be wise to move on from Sam. If the best offer we are getting is a late 3rd round pick then I'd try to do #23 + Sam for #19 (Washington) or #20 (Bears), value is about a

Posted Images

 

15 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Most anti-Sam fans just want him gone, but unless JD sees a trade that HE considers to be at or better than fair value, keeping Sam and drafting a QB at 2 is very likely IMO.  I don't think JD's worried about a QB controversy.

I'd think the last thing JD would want is to stick a first time head coach with a QB controversy right out of the gate.  Saleh will have enough things to worry about.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

This idea has been kicked around a little bit but it seems to be getting more legs lately.  Some points being made in the linked video below...

  • If the Jets keep Darnold and he departs after next year they'd likely get a compensatory 3rd rounder
  • If the current market isn't yielding offers much higher than a 3rd there's no compelling reason to trade Darnold
  • Even picking up the 5th year option given the Jets cap space and situation wouldn't be a problem and would still likely be a discount to what teams would be paying low-end starters in 2022
  • Trading Darnold after the Draft in the Summer or the Fall could yield better offers.

 

ESPN: Why the Jets aren't rushing to trade Sam Darnold

1321027480_ScreenShot2021-04-02at6_10_10PM.png.fd9cdb8a69c674afd0a6910f1d9a32a7.png

 

My question - What would be the expected Cap cost in 2021 of drafting Wilson and keeping Darnold?  What would that cost be in 2022 if Darnold was on a 5th year option and still kept (similar to Brett Favre starting in GB for two years while Aaron Rodgers waited)?

Is the reason the Jets haven't signed any other QB like CJ Beathard an indication the Jets could be serious about rolling with both Darnold and Wilson in 2021?

he makes 9 mil this year and 18 mil if we pick up his option. and that 18 mil is all guaranteed so i think it all goes on the cap.

and this is a big reason you cant keep him unless its just for 2021. if he has another bad year in 2021 how can you keep him. plus making 18 mil. most backups make 9-10 mil a year. if Alex Smith starts Sam will be the highest paid backup by 10 mil .

Rodgers sat because Favre was a HOF QB. Sam is not. no way any QB picked 2OA sits behind Sam. yeah maybe a few games at the start. but by game 3-4 Wilson will be the starter no matter what sam does.

plus i doubt Rodgers was making anywhere near 18 mil when he sat behind Favre.

and JD is a value guy. we never overpays. no way he values sam anywhere near 18 mil

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

1% chance Sam pulls a Josh Allen next year -  We resign him or franchise him and have a nice problem.

If Sam stays Sam, we re-sign him for backup money.   Trubisky got 2.5M a year.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, dcJet said:

If no serious offers for Sam, start him and let Wilson learn.  

This has been done everywhere... mahomes, herbert, tua, mayfield, lamar.  

 

 

yes but they brought in nobodys. not there prized top 3 QB from 3 years ago. 

and Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith. he was a very good player at the time. and Jackson sat behind Flacco. and Tua behind Fritz.

Herbert sat 1 game, Mayfield 2 games behind nobodys. you only sit if there is a really good QB in front of you. and Sams not that

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

We have 80 million in cap room next year .. don’t think we’re getting a comp for Sam 

I’ve been saying this for days, but you keep seeing “we are getting a 3rd round comp pick for Sam” in post after post 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

We have 80 million in cap room next year .. don’t think we’re getting a comp for Sam 

How do we have a ton of cap space every year and still suck??

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Saleh, from most reports,  loves Darnold. If Wilson was not an option, we would be trading down.  Unless they get a  2nd , Sam will be on this roster for training camp. I’d bet substantially on that. DM me, if you want that bet 

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, JETSY14 said:

How do we have a ton of cap space every year and still suck??

We sucked when MacDaddy was giving out huge deals. We sucked last year because of Gase and a turnover roster. Moving forward the plan is to not suck and have cap space. JD is building through the draft, smart FA deals and one year deals 

  • Upvote 1
  • Thumb Down 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

We sucked when MacDaddy was giving out huge deals. We sucked last year because of Gase and a turnover roster. Moving forward the plan is to not suck and have cap space. JD is building through the draft, smart FA deals and one year deals 

Ok your saying JD who brought us from a 7 win team to a  2 win team will bring us to greatness thru the draft. 

How about blaming JD for sucking last year because he did nothing to solve our offensive line problems [ranked 29 th last year]

  • Upvote 4
  • Thumb Down 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Without understanding the cap implications and such - if you wind getting more in a comp pick than you’re offered in a trade - then on paper having Darnold as your veteran to be that the rookie has to unseat isn’t a bad thing. The worst case scenario is he wins the starting job. 

from a culture/PR/lockerroom standpoint though... be a tough sell 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TokyoJetsFan said:

 

I'd think the last thing JD would want is to stick a first time head coach with a QB controversy right out of the gate.  Saleh will have enough things to worry about.

Understand that point but I'm not sure it would be a "controversy."  This is the big boy league and these guys are getting paid millions of dollars to compete.  If a QB competition over the summer shatters the confidence of one of these guys then they're not mentally tough enough to be starting NFL QBs.  Similarly, if Saleh can't manage a depth chart where a backup is gunning for the job of the starter then he's not the right guy either.  Saleh seems like exactly the kind of guy who would find a way to build both of these guys up and create an environment for a healthy, intense competition.  We don't know a ton about Wilson, but we seem to know some things about Sam.  We've seen him on a depth with McCown, with Bridgewater, etc.  He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would become a douche or a distraction if he came into Camp under a new HC and was told he needs to earn the starting job.

Let's also not forget that a QB competition is exactly what Zach Wilson was put into last year following his injury.  He wasn't guaranteed to even be the starter this year at BYU, hand to earn it, and will now be a Top 3 pick in the NFL Draft.  I kinda like that.

If the Jets aren't getting great offers I'd prefer to hold onto Sam and possibly showcase him to start the season while Wilson learns from the bench.  Then maybe we try to trade Sam in October to a team that loses its starter to injury or something.  Having two potential QBs is better than one.  It would also relieve the Jets of having to sign a true backup to start the season if James Morgan isn't quite that guy yet.

Just my take.

  • Upvote 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, doitny said:

he makes 9 mil this year and 18 mil if we pick up his option. and that 18 mil is all guaranteed so i think it all goes on the cap.

and this is a big reason you cant keep him unless its just for 2021. if he has another bad year in 2021 how can you keep him. plus making 18 mil. most backups make 9-10 mil a year. if Alex Smith starts Sam will be the highest paid backup by 10 mil .

Rodgers sat because Favre was a HOF QB. Sam is not. no way any QB picked 2OA sits behind Sam. yeah maybe a few games at the start. but by game 3-4 Wilson will be the starter no matter what sam does.

plus i doubt Rodgers was making anywhere near 18 mil when he sat behind Favre.

and JD is a value guy. we never overpays. no way he values sam anywhere near 18 mil

 

Then do you not exercise the option, you keep Sam, try to trade him in the Fall?  If you can't then you let him walk and possibly get the 3rd round compensatory pick?  The other possibility (which many here seem to place at 1%) is.... what if Sam actually looks good?  What if the plan is to start Sam for a month or two before trading him and he turns out to be a great fit in the LaFleur offense throwing to Corey Davis instead of Chris Hogan, handing off to Tevin Coleman instead of Frank Gore, etc.?  Or, what if Wilson doesn't look ready?  I'm just throwing out what-if's... we have no idea how this will play out, but if Darnold starts to look like Ryan Tannehill after escaping Adam Gase then we have a whole new problem (a good problem actually!).

 

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

I’ve been saying this for days, but you keep seeing “we are getting a 3rd round comp pick for Sam” in post after post 

Dan Graziano is the guy spouting it in the video.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I listened to an interview with one of Wilson’s coaches and he said that Wilson thrives on competition and never rests till he is the man. Can’t make him the man automatically. Competition is good. Make him earn it. Competition competition competition! Yes keep old man Darnold till Wilson shows that he is better. Simple as that! It’s not rocket science - It’s the way you build a winner! 

  • Post of the Week 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, peekskill68 said:

Most anti-Sam fans just want him gone, but unless JD sees a trade that HE considers to be at or better than fair value, keeping Sam and drafting a QB at 2 is very likely IMO.  I don't think JD's worried about a QB controversy.

There's a reason teams don't do it. If Sam is on the team after draft day then it's a failure because any value you could get is gone. The 2nd or 3rd that's being offered is gone. While that may or may not be 'fair' compensation, just tossing it away is a waste. 

..and if you think sam is "competition" for Wilson then, Wow.. Wilson is the wrong guy to pick. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dcJet said:

If no serious offers for Sam, start him and let Wilson learn.  

This has been done everywhere... mahomes, herbert, tua, mayfield, lamar.  

 

 

Sam is the last QB besides Geno that I want mentoring a younger QB.

  • Upvote 1
  • Thumb Down 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Didn't we trade Leo Williams for like two picks a few months before he'd be a free agent?  Didn't the Jets take his replacement at #3 in Quinnen Williams telegraphing to everyone that they had little leverage in a trade?
At the most important position on the football field I honestly have no problem losing a bit of value or overpaying a bit somehow if it serves as an insurance policy on getting the Quarterback right for this snake bitten franchise.  If we'd only get a 3rd for Sam on Draft day this year, then decide to keep him and we watch Wilson beat him out so that the Jets only end up trading Sam for a 4th or 5th in early November then so be it.  Kirk Cousins turned out being the right QB in Washington even though RGIII was the top guy drafted there.  The WFT ended up franchising Cousins twice because they weren't sure about him.  Weird things happen but I like having options.  We could do a lot worse than rolling into 2021 with Darnold, Wilson and Morgan.
Several good points in this post

Sent from the NY Jets Draft Suicide Watch desk.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Lot K Tailgaters said:

I think the Jets might want to see what they are offered for Darnold vs what they are offered for the second pick in the draft.  
 

Carolina is desperate either for Darnold or to move up.  

The #23 and Darnold for the #8 would be a fantastic trade.  Perhaps the Jets need to throw in another late round pick (e.g. #107)... I'm not looking at the value chart right now.  But that almost seems like a win-win that gets the Panthers a starting QB (who Rhule seemed to like when he interviewed here) and still keeps Carolina in the 1st round, and it puts the Jets in striking distance for a true playmaker at #8 or one of the top 2 offensive linemen.  At #8 we're looking at WRs like Chase, Waddle, or Smith, an OL like Sewell or Slater, or the wet dream of TE Kyle Pitts dropping there.  With at least 3 QBs going in the Top 8 (probably more) we're likely looking at more than just one or two of those guys being available at #8.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Then do you not exercise the option, you keep Sam, try to trade him in the Fall?  If you can't then you let him walk and possibly get the 3rd round compensatory pick?  The other possibility (which many here seem to place at 1%) is.... what if Sam actually looks good?  What if the plan is to start Sam for a month or two before trading him and he turns out to be a great fit in the LaFleur offense throwing to Corey Davis instead of Chris Hogan, handing off to Tevin Coleman instead of Frank Gore, etc.?  Or, what if Wilson doesn't look ready?  I'm just throwing out what-if's... we have no idea how this will play out, but if Darnold starts to look like Ryan Tannehill after escaping Adam Gase then we have a whole new problem (a good problem actually!).

 

it wont be good for JD if sam outplays wilson. and thats another big reason to get rid of sam.

yeah we would be happy with a Tannehill, but JD take a serious hit for not seeing Sam was better than Wilson. wasting 2OA. and what kind of trade do you get for Wilson? even if sam is Tannehill, Wilson is suppose to be better than that, and he couldnt beat sam out.

JD will do whats better for the team, but not at his own expense. 

if sam becomes the FQB it wont be anything JD did, in fact it would be in spite of him because he drafted his replacement with the 2nd pick in the draft. we would have to really think about whether or not we still trust him in making decisions for the team. 

thats why i think if Wilson is drafted sam is gone. there is no good that can come out of sam being on this team for JD.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

Most anti-Sam fans just want him gone, but unless JD sees a trade that HE considers to be at or better than fair value, keeping Sam and drafting a QB at 2 is very likely IMO.  I don't think JD's worried about a QB controversy.

If Sam plays marginally better than Wilson in camp you've now created a QB controversy going into the season. Not exactly ideal for a first year head coach in NY. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

The #23 and Darnold for the #8 would be a fantastic trade.  Perhaps the Jets need to throw in another late round pick (e.g. #107)... I'm not looking at the value chart right now.  But that almost seems like a win-win that gets the Panthers a starting QB (who Rhule seemed to like when he interviewed here) and still keeps Carolina in the 1st round, and it puts the Jets in striking distance for a true playmaker at #8 or one of the top 2 offensive linemen.  At #8 we're looking at WRs like Chase, Waddle, or Smith, an OL like Sewell or Slater, or the wet dream of TE Kyle Pitts dropping there.  With at least 3 QBs going in the Top 8 (probably more) we're likely looking at more than just one or two of those guys being available at #8.

or if im, Carolina i could just stay at 8 and take Mac Jones as most mocks have him going to.

or

just give JD the 2nd rd pick he wants for Sam and keep #8. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, doitny said:

or if im, Carolina i could just stay at 8 and take Mac Jones as most mocks have him going to.

or

just give JD the 2nd rd pick he wants for Sam and keep #8. 

Seems like the 49ers traded up to #3 to take Mac Jones. The Panthers would have to make do with Lance or Fields, assuming that Denver doesn't jump them to take one of them.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, doitny said:

it wont be good for JD if sam outplays wilson. and thats another big reason to get rid of sam.

yeah we would be happy with a Tannehill, but JD take a serious hit for not seeing Sam was better than Wilson. wasting 2OA. and what kind of trade do you get for Wilson? even if sam is Tannehill, Wilson is suppose to be better than that, and he couldnt beat sam out.

JD will do whats better for the team, but not at his own expense. 

if sam becomes the FQB it wont be anything JD did, in fact it would be in spite of him because he drafted his replacement with the 2nd pick in the draft. we would have to really think about whether or not we still trust him in making decisions for the team. 

thats why i think if Wilson is drafted sam is gone. there is no good that can come out of sam being on this team for JD.

I totally get this.  But imagine a scenario where JD is telling ownership and Saleh, "I think with this new offensive system LaFleur is going to run and the weapons and protection we're adding on offense Sam really has a chance to make progress.  But, it's not guaranteed.  We HAVE to use this opportunity of the #2 pick to take a guy like Wilson who is absolutely worthy of the #2 overall, but we shouldn't be trading Sam for pennies on the dollar.  Let's give ourselves some optionality here.  The market for Sam is tough right now... we may not get more than a 3rd during the Draft, and even if we're only able to move him in October for a 4th or a 5th it might be worth it on the chance that he truly excels in the new system and we're getting offered something like a 2nd or a conditional 1st/2nd this Fall."

If Joe Douglas looks bad because Sam excels and ownership thinks Joe should have known Sam would be good and not drafted a QB at #2, then how bad would JD look if he trades Sam for a 3rd and he ends up taking Washington, Carolina or Denver to a Wild Card berth?

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...