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The Draft Wilson/Keep Darnold, too, Hypothesis Thread


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6 hours ago, Warfish said:

No, it realy doesn't.  There will be a difference-making Offensive prospect available and appropriate for the #23 pick at the #23 pick.

We have to WANT to pick Defense over Offense for that to happen.  It will not in any way be a "well, shucks, we just had to" situation.

I’m taking Patrick Surtain over Teven Jenkins or Alex Leatherwood.  I’d come back later for a RT like Radunz or Eichenberg.

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If no serious offers for Sam, start him and let Wilson learn.   This has been done everywhere... mahomes, herbert, tua, mayfield, lamar.      

This idea has been kicked around a little bit but it seems to be getting more legs lately.  Some points being made in the linked video below... If the Jets keep Darnold and he departs after ne

IMO if we take Wilson it would be wise to move on from Sam. If the best offer we are getting is a late 3rd round pick then I'd try to do #23 + Sam for #19 (Washington) or #20 (Bears), value is about a

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2 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

You don't get "nothing." You get one year of a cheap, young quarterback with potential upside in a new system. He will likely start some games while the rookie is groomed. At worst, you get a backup quarterback with starting experience on a cheap contract.

Joe Douglas and many others around the league value Darnold higher than many of the fans on this forum.  Admittedly, Darnold had a poor season last year. In my opinion, that is not grounds for making a rash decision and trading him at his lowest value in his career thus far. A mid round pick doesn't move the needle for this team. Having a quarterback on a cheap contract who has shown flashes in the past and can be used strategically to ease a rookie into action is more valuable.

so you dont care about the draft picks, you just want a cheap backup with an upside?

why not just sign Nick Mullins?

he made 2 mil last year. thats 7 mil less than sam will get this year. cant get cheaper than that. and he has starting experience.

but most importantly, he knows the new system there running. he could be a tremendous help to Wilson. and that should be our #1 priority. doing whatever we can to help Wilson. sure Mullins probably isnt as good as sam, but so what. whats more important, having our bridge QB win games or helping get our future QB on the field faster.

you keep talking about sams upside, how does that benefit us?

Wilson will be the QB, come hell or high water. so if sam plays well then what? hes gone at the end of the year. so we just helped resurrect sams career on our dime. unless you want to franchise tag sam for 22 mil and keep Wilson on the bench for a 2nd year. 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Agreed. 

The upside in keeping Darnold is that he "figures it out", he carries us to the playoffs, we trade Wilson and I don't have to burn my Darnold Jersey. But that is a very unlikely scenario. 

It is far more likely, he plays just well in camp to create a QB controversy between him and Wilson which creates friction in the lockerroom/Organization between those that prefer Darnold and those that want Wilson. Remember, beating out Wilson shouldn't be too hard even if you think Darnold isn't great. He is still a vet with a decent amount of talent. That is a huge edge over a rookie. 

That is why you always see teams that draft rookies sign guys like Fitz/Tyrod/Mccoy. 

exactly. and thats why JD will never keep him.

and what are you getting for a trade of Wilson? nowhere near what the 2OA pick is worth. so he just blew that pick. he might as well hand in his resignation. 

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8 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Yeah, what I think, what people are talking about puts us in la la land.  

Warner was on his way out, just like Sam.  Its all about developing a new QB and if they want the option of not forcing him to start whether hes ready or not, youre in la la land if you think he'll be forced to line up and play.  Because your plan worked so well with the development of Sanchez, Geno and Sam.  

Why does Sam have to play all year?  Who says?  Just people who are opposed to starting the year with Sam?  Because Sam playing well will get the Jets a 1st for Sam in trade?  Yeah, that would put is in la la land.  The Jets cant do exactly what the Giants and the fins did with Fitz and throw in their rookie QB while their respective teams were in playoff contention?  

Nowhere did Greg Cosell say that if the Jets draft Wilson, if they think Wilson is the way their long term plan will go, did he say Sam has to be traded before camp.

Ok this won’t go anywhere. It’s not happening, silly to think it will.

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7 hours ago, doitny said:

if the GM is smart sam is gone.

Wilson if drafted will be JDs man. HIS pick. why would he keep sam? all sam could do is beat out Wilson and make JD look like an idiot for drafting Wilson. 

if Wilson beats sam you got nothing, nada, zilch, zero..... thats a hell of a lot less then peanuts. a 3rd rd pick isnt peanuts. even a 4th rd pick is better then nothing.

 

 

 

 

so your argument against keeping sam is that he may be better than wilson? 

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Welp, with the Bears locking up Dalton and naming him the starter, strike the Bears. 

Who is really left for a trade with Sam, maybe the Broncos? Broncos don't seem to be offering above a 4th so it makes sense to pass on that deal and agree with JD on that. 

Personally, I'm kinda hyped about seeing two young QB's battling it out and it may even step up Darnolds game. Heres the catch tho, if Darnold does earn the job and do well, what do you do about the extension? Did you just pass on multiple extra first round picks with trading out of 2 for drafting Wilson and playing Darnold anyway? 

I'm good with the decision to roll with 2 young QB's but I wish the GM and coach get on the same page about WHO THEY THINK CAN START in September because you cant truly approach the draft smartly till that happens. Something just feels like "winging it' to me. 

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For the 15,000th time you don’t pick a QB at 2 and have competition. If you are not sure Wilson can beat out Darnold, why the hell are you taking him at 2???

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Just now, JetsFanatic said:

For the 15,000th time you don’t pick a QB at 2 and have competition. If you are not sure Wilson can beat out Darnold, why the hell are you taking him at 2???

I agree with this, hypothetically if Darnold beats out Wilson initially (quite possible as he has the experience) but goes on to do really really well in the new system, what do you do then? Still trade Sam because of the contact situation knowing you are trading away a good qb just because you picked someone who has potential at #2.

If we pick wilson we must get Sam a new home.

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I've been thinking about this possibility and my first thought was there's no 
way Douglas would do it.  But with the way Douglas places "hard values" on
free agents, draft picks and contracts I'm thinking he may not move Darnold
unless he gets exactly what he wants for him.  If Douglas allows Darnold to
stay and battle it out with Wilson in camp the best scenario would be:

- Darnold winning the job
- Darnold truly improving and living up to his draft status
- Then Douglas could tag him in the off-season and deal him for his full value

Off the top of my head "double QB's" on the same team has worked a couple of 
times:

- Brees & Rivers in SD
- Favre & Rodgers in GB
- Smith & Kaepernick in SF
- Smith & Mahomes in KC

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10 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

And if no one makes an offer?  Are you cutting him?  Deal with this, you might be better off keeping Sam and waiting for a team to become desperate in season for a QB and get a better offer.

 

That’s hilarious, of course someone will offer something . But it won’t be anything impressive. I’d be happy with a 2022 3rd rounder.

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Fix and Flip.  
I think Darnold can be good enough, but Wilson is fundamentally better.

Double down on Darnold.  Bet you can fix him, take his 5th year option and trade him mid-season or after the season.

Trade Wilson if Darnold really turns it around. 

 

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2 minutes ago, varjet said:

Fix and Flip.  
I think Darnold can be good enough, but Wilson is fundamentally better.

Double down on Darnold.  Bet you can fix him, take his 5th year option and trade him mid-season or after the season.

Trade Wilson if Darnold really turns it around. 

 

And what would you expect to get for Wilson after spending the number 2 overall pick on and could not beat out Darnold. 

 

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11 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

I agree with this, hypothetically if Darnold beats out Wilson initially (quite possible as he has the experience) but goes on to do really really well in the new system, what do you do then?

Ride my magical unicorn to the moon!

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17 minutes ago, JetsFanatic said:

For the 15,000th time you don’t pick a QB at 2 and have competition. If you are not sure Wilson can beat out Darnold, why the hell are you taking him at 2???

Insurance 

If Darnold enters week 9  stinking it uP you make the change. JD can tell the press he addressed QB but wanted to give sam another shot 

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5 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

That’s hilarious, of course someone will offer something . But it won’t be anything impressive. I’d be happy with a 2022 3rd rounder.

And if thats the case why would you trade him for a 3rd round pick?

If he weren't tradable and we had him for a year and then he walks we would get a 3rd road comp.  Why would JD trade him for that or less? 

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22 hours ago, neckdemon said:

honestly if we draft wilson, keeping darnold makes a lot of sense, imo. just handing the starting gig to a one year wonder doesn't sound like the best idea. and i like wilson, even want the jets to draft him, but even mahomes wasn't just handed the job and he was behind alex smith, who is no world beater

Mahomes supposedly looked totally lost/useless in his rookie camp, and the Chiefs were serious contenders. In such a scenario it’s a lot harder to sacrifice the rest of the team for the greater good of a very raw rookie QB getting his lumps in. Smith may have been no world beater but he was a legit probowl QB putting up better passing numbers than any QB we’ve ever had. Two of their losses (one against the Jets) came despite the offense scoring 30+ points; in the playoffs they had a 21-10 lead in the 4th quarter and lost (don’t forget until the SB season Reid had a history of getting way too conservative in the playoffs, coaching his teams to 7 losses in his last 9 playoff games).

Anyway because Mahomes has been so great I think it’s easy to forget what a big controversy it was to trade Smith and hand the team to Mahomes. Easy to say in hindsight but you don’t fully know what a player really is until he’s out there.

Ultimately they’re different people; Mahomes is not the blueprint for Wilson any more than Russell Wilson is the blueprint for Zach Wilson. If (Zach) Wilson looks lost in camp like Mahomes did at that time, then he should absolutely sit initially. If not, I don’t think we need to sit someone just for the sake of sitting him, as though it’s some cookie-cutter decision that is the best-spent time for every rookie. Further, sitting week 1 doesn’t therefore mean he needs to sit the next 16 after that.

There is something to a narrative where Darnold sucks and Wilson takes the job from him. It’s a nice setting-up for the rookie in the team’s eyes. Except it’s not like that’s imperative or he won’t have team support without it, plus it can lead to a divided locker room, plus yeah it’d be nice to not give away a day 2 pick if it isn’t necessary. 

But then, isn’t that just handing Darnold the job anyway? It’s not like he’s earned it either. 

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4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And if thats the case why would you trade him for a 3rd round pick?

If he weren't tradable and we had him for a year and then he walks we would get a 3rd road comp.  Why would JD trade him for that or less? 

The Jets aren't getting a third round comp pick for him. Just stop. The best you could hope for is probably a fifth round pick that would arrive in 2023. A third in this April's draft would be substantially more valuable. 

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On 4/2/2021 at 10:46 PM, TokyoJetsFan said:

 

I'd think the last thing JD would want is to stick a first time head coach with a QB controversy right out of the gate.  Saleh will have enough things to worry about.

I dont buy into the qb controversy thing here in this case.

Darnold has earned nothing and is not aggressive or delusional about his position. Wilson is the rook and knows he needs to ear the job.

I see it as darnold and wilson getting along and supporting one another

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7 minutes ago, slats said:

The Jets aren't getting a third round comp pick for him. Just stop. The best you could hope for is probably a fifth round pick that would arrive in 2023. A third in this April's draft would be substantially more valuable. 

Well more than one talking head have been passing this on.

 

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1 minute ago, slats said:

The Jets aren't getting a third round comp pick for him. Just stop. The best you could hope for is probably a fifth round pick that would arrive in 2023. A third in this April's draft would be substantially more valuable. 

If he was a UFA right now I don’t even think we’d get a 6th round comp pick. Two years from now. On paper, today, such a low comp pick has virtually no value. 

Even if the comp pick recovered was a 5th rounder, which would require major on-field improvement from Darnold to get a Mariota-level FA contract, that’d have the trade value of a late 7th rounder in 2021. Even if the top offer we get for Darnold is a major letdown, it’ll be higher than a late 7th rounder. It’ll be higher than a late 5th rounder this year, never mind 2 full years later.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Well more than one talking head have been passing this on.

 

Lazy ones, I guess. What's their premise? That no one is willing to give the Jets a third round pick for Darnold, but as soon as he hits free agency he's gonna sign somewhere for $25M? That's preposterous. He'd likely sign an incentive heavy contract that would barely budge the comp pick formula needle. 

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Just now, Jet Nut said:

Well more than one talking head have been passing this on.

 

Nah, he’s right. Not that I don’t believe you, but what talking head has suggested the Jets are getting even a 4th round comp pick for Darnold, never mind a 3rd round one. 

He’d need to get at least a $20MM/year contract - with more than 1 year fully guaranteed - as a FA in 2022 for the Jets to get a 3rd round comp pick in 2023.

If he’s worth that, based on his 2021 play, then why would the Jets let him become a FA without even tagging him?

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3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Nah, he’s right. Not that I don’t believe you, but what talking head has suggested the Jets are getting even a 4th round comp pick for Darnold, never mind a 3rd round one. 

He’d need to get at least a $20MM/year contract - with more than 1 year fully guaranteed - as a FA in 2022 for the Jets to get a 3rd round comp pick in 2023.

If he’s worth that, based on his 2021 play, then why would the Jets let him become a FA without even tagging him?

Good points by both you and @slats

Get what youre saying

 

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32 minutes ago, varjet said:

Fix and Flip.  
I think Darnold can be good enough, but Wilson is fundamentally better.

Double down on Darnold.  Bet you can fix him, take his 5th year option and trade him mid-season or after the season.

Trade Wilson if Darnold really turns it around. 

 

30 million dollar cap hit if you trade Wilson after his rookie year.  

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9 minutes ago, slats said:

The Jets aren't getting a third round comp pick for him. Just stop. The best you could hope for is probably a fifth round pick that would arrive in 2023. A third in this April's draft would be substantially more valuable. 

BS. Listen, I'm not pretending to know more about this situation than you but it is 100% nonsense to say they will not get a 3rd rounder compensatory pick for Sammy Darnold. Some team is going to go all in with Sammy whether that team is the Jets or no. There are too many teams that believe that Sammys career has gone awry due to the Jets complete lack of willingness to surround Sammy with a complimentary cast.

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Are you kidding me! Why in the world would Douglas/Jets ownership, take QB Wilson say, then retain Darnold for what reasons? Douglas is holding onto Darnold way TOO long, and will get nothing for him. Cut bait and move on.........start fresh with the new coaching staff and new QB! C'mon Jets........get your act together!

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The list of teams to be able to trade Sam Darnold has already diminished to next to nobody. 

JD needed  to make a decision sooner than he has. 

If we are keeping Sam Darnold so be it build a team around him. 

#2 draft pick gives the best player at many positions in the draft besides QB. 

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But Joewilly12, why would you want to keep Darnold? We have seen him these past 3 years accomplish what? I don't want to hear about not having players around him, or that dope Adam Gase! Darnold never ever made himself or other players around him better! NONE! Move on............................

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1 hour ago, Sim said:

Are you kidding me! Why in the world would Douglas/Jets ownership, take QB Wilson say, then retain Darnold for what reasons? Douglas is holding onto Darnold way TOO long, and will get nothing for him. Cut bait and move on.........start fresh with the new coaching staff and new QB! C'mon Jets........get your act together!

Because if they hold on to him the Jets will get a compensatory 3rd round pick when he is cut.  Maybe that is the best they can get for him.

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Just now, Sim said:

But Joewilly12, why would you want to keep Darnold? We have seen him these past 3 years accomplish what? I don't want to hear about not having players around him, or that dope Adam Gase! Darnold never ever made himself or other players around him better! NONE! Move on............................

I agree i'm just responding to those who want to keep him and think he is going to miraculously turn it around after 3 bad seasons. 

Again also we can't control what JD does. 

Always prepare for the worst. 

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Good point GKnight83; but, let the new QB, again Wilson, thrive without having a noose around his neck with knowing Darnold is still on the team. Plus the distraction from the media etc.........let Wilson get comfortable and confident without having to worry about these other outside disturbances!

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