The Stick with Darnold Thread

[TuscanyTile2]

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

"Good a candidate as any." Yes I agree.  This is exactly what @Jetsfan80 and I have been arguing for almost a year:

He has exactly the same chance as any bust QB to turn it around -- and that percentage is very, very low (low single-digits).

But all people heard were that were we "hate" him or have "an agenda" against him. It was never personal about Sam; it was statistical. 

I don't think he has exactly the same chance as any bust QB to turn it around.  I think he has a much better chance than almost any (and maybe all) of them.  Sam has talent.

 

7 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Even if I agreed with the bolded, what you are essentially saying is "I think this one guy has as good a shot as anyone at pulling off this uncommon, statistically unlikely feat." 

In other words, he's still not a sound investment. 

In retrospect, it was a bad investment by the Panthers to sign Sam for the 5th year option.  I'm just saying that, going forward, he'd be a great backup QB at the right price.  

 

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

If he had a good season and was a legit starter, Panthers would've signed him to a new deal in off season with new money anyway. What else you got?

And would've had to pay a lot more money to do so.  

[jgb]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't think he has exactly the same chance as any bust QB to turn it around.  I think he has a much better chance than any of them.  Sam has talent.

I amended to say any "highly-drafted QB bust." Those guys always get more chances than a late rounder.

Quote

 

In retrospect, it was a bad investment by the Panthers to sign Sam for the 5th year option.  I'm just saying that, going forward, he'd be a great backup QB at the right price.  

Respectfully, the big thing to do would be to hat tip those of us who called it without the benefit of hindsight.

Quote

 

And would've had to pay a lot more money to do so.  And they still might 

No they would not have. They would've come up with an agreement on APY and structured the signing bonus to make that happen over the life of the new deal. The only way he was ever going to be paid that $19M under the option is if he doesn't earn a new deal with his play. Which is looking like a given at this point.

Now let's say he had a nigh-unprecedented turnaround in '21 and refused to sign a long term deal/played hardball. Well guess what? In that case, the option still doesn't save them money. The Panthers could just bring Darnold to the table with the threat of the franchise tag. And they would hold the tag right until after getting a good look at Sam up close for a season, dramatically reducing their risk.

And finally in the extremely unlikely case that even that didn't work and the Panthers were left with no choice but to tag him, at best, the Panthers bet $19M against the extremely unlikely possibility of "saving" $6M below the franchise tag if all of the above comes to pass. They took this "gamble" without odds. That's not a gamble. That's being a sucker.

In fact, there is no justifiable economic reason for them to make this decision. Honestly the only way it can possibly be justified -- and poorly, at that -- is that picking up the option was designed to boost Darnold's confidence via a show of support. Of course, common sense tells us that if a player needs such a grandiose gesture to play well, he's not the guy anyway. But I sure do wish someone would pay me $19M just to feel better about myself.

 

[slimjasi]

14 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't think he has exactly the same chance as any bust QB to turn it around.  I think he has a much better chance than almost any (and maybe all) of them.  Sam has talent.

Ok, so I am fascinated by the bolded. Why does he have a "much better" chance than Geno Smith, Mark Sanchez, David Carr, Josh Rosen, etc. at turning his career around? 

FYI, all these guys have talent. Talent isn't the issue. 

If Wilson busts, people will be saying the same thing about him (but, but, but he has talent!!!). 

[TuscanyTile2]

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

I amended to say any "highly-drafted QB bust." Those guys always get more chances than a late rounder.

Respectfully, the big thing to do would be to hat tip those of us who called it without the benefit of hindsight.

You get a hat tip from me.  And I'll admit I was wrong on Sam.  I thought he was going to be better for the Panthers.

Fwiw, I still believe he's a guy that might be a journeyman for a couple of years and then, out-of-the-blue, turn it around somewhere.  It would be fascinating to see him in New Orleans working with Sean Payton.  (I realize that's a great situation for any QB, btw).

I still would take Sam over Geno Smith or Taylor Heinicke btw.  Maybe others who are currently starting too.

[TuscanyTile2]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ok, so I am fascinated by the bolded. Why does he have a "much better" chance than Geno Smith, Mark Sanchez, David Carr, Josh Rosen, etc. at turning his career around? 

FYI, all these guys have talent. Talent isn't the issue. 

If Wilson busts, people will be saying the same thing about him (but, but, but he has talent!!!). 

Maybe I'm way off on this.  I've seen Sam make plays that I haven't seen those others make (well, I haven't seen much David Carr so hard for me to compare).  Sanchez and Rosen have very limited ceilings imo.  And Rosen I think just flat-out stinks (doesn't have the physical ability).

IMO, Sam has the tools to be a darn good QB (maybe 10-15 in the NFL).  He might never get there.  And I'll admit that I'm surprised at how poorly he's performed so far in his career.  So far I'm definitely wrong about him.  But I still think there's a lot to work with.

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Maybe I'm way off on this.  I've seen Sam make plays that I haven't seen those others make (well, I haven't seen much David Carr so hard for me to compare).  Sanchez and Rosen have very limited ceilings imo.  And Rosen I think just flat-out stinks (doesn't have the physical ability).

IMO, Sam has the tools to be a darn good QB (maybe 10-15 in the NFL).  He might never get there.  And I'll admit that I'm surprised at how poorly he's performed so far in his career.  So far I'm definitely wrong about him.  But I still think there's a lot to work with.

I'm never surprised when a QB busts. Ever. It's the most difficult position in sport to evaluate and extrapolate prior performance into the pros because talent is not the differentiator at this level. They all have talent. They all can "flash" the "wow" except for the occasional Hackenberg or Luke Falk who is quickly ushered out of the league without ceremony. What separates Tom Brady from Jamarcus Russell cannot be measured with a stopwatch or a radar gun -- if that were the case, Russell would be the HOFer and Brady a backup at best. Rather, it's about what's between the ears. This is why I infamously called Rosen "undraftable" a couple years ago. I believe it remains my most butt fumbled post. I knew nothing about his game and didn't need to. I didn't care if he could Uncle Rico a football over them mountains. He didn't have the mental constitution, makeup, or maturity to make it. 

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

I'm never surprised when a QB busts. Ever. It's the most difficult position in sport to evaluate and extrapolate prior performance into the pros because talent is not the differentiator at this level. They all have talent. They all can "flash" the "wow" except for the occasional Hackenberg or Luke Falk who is quickly ushered out of the league without ceremony. What separates Tom Brady from Jamarcus Russell cannot be measured with a stopwatch or a radar gun -- if that were the case, Russell would be the HOFer and Brady a backup at best. Rather, it's about what's between the ears. 

Jamarcus is a bad example.  He didn't care about football.  There's a famous story about when the coaches told him they made a tape of plays for him to review and tell them which ones he wanted to run.  The next day he came back and said they were all good.  The problem was that the tape was blank.

Sam is nothing like that.  And Sam has way more ability than a lot of QBs who busted.  

[jgb]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Jamarcus is a bad example.  He didn't care about football.  There's a famous story about when the coaches told him they made a tape of plays for him to review and tell them which ones he wanted to run.  The next day he came back and said they were all good.  The problem was that the tape was blank.

Sam is nothing like that.  And Sam has way more ability than a lot of QBs who busted.  

If you don't like the Jamarcus example there are 1,000 others. Don't lose the forest from the trees.

[slimjasi]

 

 

12 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Maybe I'm way off on this.  I've seen Sam make plays that I haven't seen those others make (well, I haven't seen much David Carr so hard for me to compare).  Sanchez and Rosen have very limited ceilings imo.  And Rosen I think just flat-out stinks (doesn't have the physical ability).

IMO, Sam has the tools to be a darn good QB (maybe 10-15 in the NFL).  He might never get there.  And I'll admit that I'm surprised at how poorly he's performed so far in his career.  So far I'm definitely wrong about him.  But I still think there's a lot to work with.

I think you are underestimating the mental aspect of things. Most of these guys have the physical talent to be good, but very few have the "intestinal fortitude" (as Vince McMahon might say) or mental/emotional maturity to play the toughest position in sports. Sam doesn't have it between the ears, unfortunately. 

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Sam doesn't have it between the ears, unfortunately. 

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I think you are underestimating the mental aspect of things. Most of these guys have the physical talent to be good, but very few have the "intestinal fortitude" (as Vince McMahon might say) or mental/emotional maturity to play the toughest position in sports. Sam doesn't have it between the ears, unfortunately. 

I do get it.  My point is that I could see Sam "figuring it out" at some point down the line.  He has the talent.

[TuscanyTile2]

12 minutes ago, jgb said:

If you don't like the Jamarcus example there are 1,000 others. Don't lose the forest from the trees.

Many of those 1000 others either didn't have the same athletic gifts Sam has or they had a crappy attitude (or both).

[jgb]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Many of those 1000 others either didn't have the same athletic gifts Sam has or they had a crappy attitude (or both).

OK man, good talk. Don't let that torch burn too long for Sammy. It's a dark road, my friend.

[TuscanyTile2]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

OK man, good talk. Don't let that torch burn too long for Sammy. It's a dark road, my friend.

Haha, thanks for the tip.  My entire NFL fandom (being a Jet fan) has been a dark road.  

I will admit that Sam's career doesn't add up to me (based on what I think his ability and attitude are).  I will keep an eye on him wherever he ends up though.

[Jetsfan80]

31 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I do get it.  My point is that I could see Sam "figuring it out" at some point down the line.  He has the talent.

What does Sam Darnold do that other QB's can't?  

For a guy who supposedly is really good at the off-script stuff, he doesn't have an elite arm.  His deep ball accuracy is the worst of any NFL starter and several backups.  Hence why Robby Anderson's productivity has been terrible when paired with Darnold.  

If you're going to be good at the off-script stuff, you need the arm to make it work.  He doesn't.  At least Wilson seems to have THAT.  And he's only a rookie, so maybe he'll get better at the other stuff.  Darnold is in year 4.  He's an NFL veteran.  He is what he is, and he just got benched for PJ friggin Walker.  He's on an almost exact same path as Mark Sanchez was.  Sanchez got put in great situations and was benched for the likes of Trevor Siemian time and time again.  

And if that's the only thing he does that makes him "talented", well that's not enough.  To be a franchise QB in this league you have to get really good at the "boring" stuff.  The "flashes" only allow you to have about 3-4 good games a year and only about 2 quarters of good play in each of those games.  That's exactly what we've seen out of Darnold for 4 straight years:  A few good games/quarters to make you believe and dogsh*t at all other times.  

He's going to be out of the league no later than his 28th birthday.

[Jetsfan80]

44 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Many of those 1000 others either didn't have the same athletic gifts Sam has or they had a crappy attitude (or both).

People always talk about Darnold's attitude along with this supposed elite athletic ability as reasons to believe in him.  The dude mopes when things go poorly, and they tend to go from bad to worse, both within games and within seasons.  That's not a great attitude or attribute for a supposed secret franchise QB to have.  You need to have a short memory in this league and bounce back quickly from your mistakes in order to succeed as a QB. 

Eli Manning mostly sucked and threw INT after INT in this league.  But he didn't listen to the criticism, mope over his mistakes, or demonstrate to his teammates that he isn't "the guy".  Hence why he's a well-respected, 2x SB winner and borderline HOFer despite his many shortcomings as a QB.  The dude just kept grinding his whole career.  Darnold isn't a grinder.  He's a boogie boarder.  Nice kid, but absolutely not a franchise QB.  

[jgb]

35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What does Sam Darnold do that other QB's can't?  

For a guy who supposedly is really good at the off-script stuff, he doesn't have an elite arm.  His deep ball accuracy is the worst of any NFL starter and several backups.  Hence why Robby Anderson's productivity has been terrible when paired with Darnold.  

If you're going to be good at the off-script stuff, you need the arm to make it work.  He doesn't.  At least Wilson seems to have THAT.  And he's only a rookie, so maybe he'll get better at the other stuff.  Darnold is in year 4.  He's an NFL veteran.  He is what he is, and he just got benched for PJ friggin Walker.  He's on an almost exact same path as Mark Sanchez was.  Sanchez got put in great situations and was benched for the likes of Trevor Siemian time and time again.  

And if that's the only thing he does that makes him "talented", well that's not enough.  To be a franchise QB in this league you have to get really good at the "boring" stuff.  The "flashes" only allow you to have about 3-4 good games a year and only about 2 quarters of good play in each of those games.  That's exactly what we've seen out of Darnold for 4 straight years:  A few good games/quarters to make you believe and dogsh*t at all other times.  

He's going to be out of the league no later than his 28th birthday.

He might not be out of the league before 30 but he's close to the end of the road where he's a starter. As we have both said several times, he's not even a good backup. Who wants a turnover machine gunslinger who doesn't score points in bunches as QB2? That said, QB2 is an utter wasteland (there aren't even 32 guys who play QB well to go around) that he'll be able to cling around if he really wants that life after banking 50 million between the Jets and Panthers.

I said last off season that the much-maligned on JN Baker Mayfield very possibly had more wins through his first 3 years (23) than Darnold will ever accumulate before his career is done. He's currently at 16. He keeps playing like he is he'll never enter a season as presumptive starter ever again and would need to win games as an injury fill-in to get to 23. 

29 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

People always talk about Darnold's attitude along with this supposed elite athletic ability as reasons to believe in him.  The dude mopes when things go poorly, and they tend to go from bad to worse, both within games and within seasons.  That's not a great attitude or attribute for a supposed secret franchise QB to have.  You need to have a short memory in this league and bounce back quickly from your mistakes in order to succeed as a QB. 

Eli Manning mostly sucked and threw INT after INT in this league.  But he didn't listen to the criticism, mope over his mistakes, or demonstrate to his teammates that he isn't "the guy".  Hence why he's a well-respected, 2x SB winner and borderline HOFer despite his many shortcomings as a QB.  The dude just kept grinding his whole career.  Darnold isn't a grinder.  He's a boogie boarder.  Nice kid, but absolutely not a franchise QB.  

The boogie board thing. I know it seems unscientific and ridiculous and I sound like the dinosaur scouts in "Moneyball" but that was a huge red flag. A guy born in Dana Point, CA who has been a stud jock since he was a kid chooses boogie boarding over surfing? Not exactly alpha dog material.

[The Crusher]

Panthers Nation just contacted me and requested We move this thread to their board. 

[Icer]

Tough week I bet @genot