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Darnold to the Panthers


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Robby Anderson be like   

Best of luck to Sam. I’ll be rooting for him!

The username lives on!!  

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3 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

I thought that Wilson was a sure fire FQB, not just an above average NFL QB, but a top five Franchise Super Bowl winning QB who does it all by himself regardless of the talent or HC he's stuck with.

Is the Wilson crowd starting to hedge their their bets?

You're out of your element. 

I don't even want to draft Wilson at 2. 

 

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7 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I get the hows and whys of this entire thing. Happy they got some return for Darnold given the level of play he's exhibited and I'm even excited for Wilson because the analytics say he's the best prospect they'll be drafting in a very long time. I'm most excited about the fact that finally, just once, the Jets decided to bail on the sh*tty young QB rather than ask everyone to keep waiting an extra year.

All that said, does anyone else get the feeling this is all still going to end terribly? 

With this team how could it not? 

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52 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The captaincies were put up to a vote and Wilson didn’t get enough votes. When one of the other captains went down with injury, the coaches made Wilson a captain. That’s the context!

No, the context is he wasn't a starter at the time of the vote. It's not a coincidence that Wilson and the guy he was battling were both named to the leadership council and not just one. Just bc you use an exclamation point doesn't mean you're right. 

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7 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

I thought that Wilson was a sure fire FQB, not just an above average NFL QB, but a top five Franchise Super Bowl winning QB who does it all by himself regardless of the talent or HC he's stuck with.

Is the Wilson crowd starting to hedge their their bets?

And are you creating strawmen?

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49 minutes ago, CTM said:

How is that better? Not the captain oh yeah well he wasnt even good enough to be the starting QB at BYU 8 months ago so haha on you .. 

 

He was one of the best Qbs in CFB though...

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4 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

Not really, I've seen that there are plenty of posters who rate Wilson that highly.

The potential is there according to the majority of professional evaluators.

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12 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Yeah, well, I don't disagree with you about Wilson. I think there are legit risks and I would probably pick someone else. Wilson feels very boom or bust to me. 

But I'm glad we are trying again at QB. A big thing for me is that I think the "risk" of drafting the wrong QB, given the rookie QB wage scale, is a bit overstated. If the guy sucks and you recognize it early enough, you have the opportunity to move on quickly (e.g. The Cardinals dumping Rosen). Meanwhile, you have a talented guy on a rookie deal, and with our picks, we can put a reasonable roster around him within a season or two.  

I'm ready to move on from Darnold, this isn't about Darnold to me. If this same trade was attached to pre rapey Deshaun I'd be doing cartwheels.  Just feels like the wrong year to take a flyer on a 1 year wonder with injury history. Someone said Jets medical staff could't even do an eval?

 

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34 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You’re advocating drafting a one-year wonder QB whose one year coincided with that “farce of a 2020 college season.”

The next great Jet debacle.  Too bad Beningo was replaced by Jersey Shore Howard Stern his rants this Fall would be gold

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3 hours ago, undertow said:

He smoked some pot in college...same as Warren Sapp. lol

wait, the jets morale squad was alive and well then? probably told management that they cant have a pot head like Dan Marino on there team. what bad things people will say about the Jets.

Miami said.... hey we will take him, thanks Jets... the rest is history.

for you younger guys, pot was a serious offense in 1983

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2 minutes ago, Gramsci said:

I don't really understand this whole "one year wonder" issue, it is a fairly normal thing for athletes to figure out things and to become better. In other sports this debate is almost non-existent when it comes to junior athletes evolve in this manner.

Should Zach Wilson be guilty of improving as a player?

Of course it is.

Burrow did it last year.

 

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6 minutes ago, Gramsci said:

I don't really understand this whole "one year wonder" issue, it is a fairly normal thing for athletes to figure out things and to become better. In other sports this debate is almost non-existent when it comes to junior athletes evolve in this manner.

Should Zach Wilson be guilty of improving as a player?

You would think they would remember it literally happened a year ago with Burrow

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12 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Of course it is.

Burrow did it last year.

 

It does have its Kafkian undertones of someone being criticized because they have improved. Pretty surreal!

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41 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

All that said, does anyone else get the feeling this is all still going to end terribly? 

You think this beast can fail?

Gocougs Byufootball GIF by BYU Cougars

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18 minutes ago, Cp561 said:

You would think they would remember it literally happened a year ago with Burrow

And the year before that with Kyler Murray

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Lol just found out a couple hours ago. 

For me...this trade becomes the signature point.  The true symbol that represents the legit collaboration between JD-FO and HC-CS.  Their getting their guy for QB NYJ. 

First time in decades...a highly respected candidate becomes the GM NYJ. Who then rids the last vestige of foolishness of ownership and their agenda driven consultants.  That saddled up the Jets with an unnatural NFL hierarchy.   Where both GM and HC separately report to ownership.  So when things go bad...as they often do in JetLand...it invites one party to throw the other party under the bus.  Resulting in minimal collaboration. 

Resulting in doing sh!!t for Darnold...poor soul  And also the same for the Jets offense.  As year after year...Jets were drafting D in the 1st round as the O kept languishing at the bottom of the league.  But that was then...

No mas!

Jets will draft Wilson or Fields.  They will have an additional 21 picks over the next two years to give that shiny brand new QB the protection needed.  And some weapons to play with. 

It's a whole new Era.  The JD-Saleh Jets.

Can't wait!

 

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47 minutes ago, Cp561 said:

You would think they would remember it literally happened a year ago with Burrow

If you go back and look at past threads, a lot of these guys were on record saying that they wouldn’t have drafted Burrow.

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2 hours ago, CTM said:

Hey that's fine. I think WIlson is a bust in the making. Atleast you are acknowleding that the 2 things are related. This means they didn't entertain trade downs because they got thier guy at 2. 

My preference was to trade back and grab whatever qb was left standing (hopefully fields)

Fields will be gone by pick 4/5.  You don't trade back to take a QB you like.  You just take him.  Thus, take Fields at 2 if he's your guy.  

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Most viewed Ewing as a gritty, but flawed player who could never quite break through and when he retired, the Knicks replaced him with Chris Dudley and Eddy Curry,

Ewing is Hall of Fame basketball player.  Darnold is coming off a season where he was the 36th ranked QB.  You lunatic.

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31 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

Lol just found out a couple hours ago. 

For me...this trade becomes the signature point.  The true symbol that represents the legit collaboration between JD-FO and HC-CS.  Their getting their guy for QB NYJ. 

First time in decades...a highly respected candidate becomes the GM NYJ. Who then rids the last vestige of foolishness of ownership and their agenda driven consultants.  That saddled up the Jets with an unnatural NFL hierarchy.   Where both GM and HC separately report to ownership.  So when things go bad...as they often do in JetLand...it invites one party to throw the other party under the bus.  Resulting in minimal collaboration. 

Resulting in doing sh!!t for Darnold...poor soul  And also the same for the Jets offense.  As year after year...Jets were drafting D in the 1st round as the O kept languishing at the bottom of the league.  But that was then...

No mas!

Jets will draft Wilson or Fields.  They will have an additional 21 picks over the next two years to give that shiny brand new QB the protection needed.  And some weapons to play with. 

It's a whole new Era.  The JD-Saleh Jets.

Can't wait!

 

To me it was a no-brainer. Take the QB while you have the chance and don’t have the trade up. 
 

Darnold cost a first and three seconds. Wilson will just cost a first. The Jets will also have three first round picks, three second round picks, and three third round picks to build around him the next two years. 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

You’re advocating drafting a one-year wonder QB whose one year coincided with that “farce of a 2020 college season.”

I most certainly am not.  I am not a Wilson fan.  The only thing I'm advocating is that trading a terrible QB for a 2, 4, and 6 was smart.  

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2 hours ago, CTM said:

There are no rules, there does however exist decades of draft history and player performance which can be used to make projections.

Yeah, and the one organization that uses draft history and player performance to make such projections says that Wilson is only just slightly more risky than Trevor Lawrence. So what's your point again?

Projections for the 2021 Draft Class

Like QBASE, QBASE v2.0 generates projections for the 2021 class and runs 50,000 simulations to calculate a range of possible outcomes. Generally, "Bust" is a backup or out of the league, "Adequate Starter" is a starter but not a franchise quarterback, "Upper Tier" is a franchise quarterback, and "Elite" is Hall of Fame-worthy. Also like QBASE, QBASE v2.0 shows no projection is a certainty: every quarterback has a chance to become elite, and even Trevor Lawrence has a 25.4% chance of becoming a bust. As stated earlier, to project each quarterback's draft position, we use Scouts Inc's 2021 Player Rankings.

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Scouts Inc. Ranking: 1)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.73 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 25.4%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 25.5%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 24.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 24.2%

Lawrence is widely seen as a generational prospect, on par with such quarterbacks as John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck. QBASE v2.0 says that while there's no guarantee Lawrence will live up to the hype, if anyone deserves it, he's the one. While he had quality receivers at Clemson, such as Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell, he put up elite numbers three years in a row, and he checks all the accuracy, mobility, and arm strength boxes. The Jacksonville Jaguars picked the right year to go 1-15.

2. Zach Wilson, BYU (5)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.60 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 29.0%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 26.6%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 24.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 20.2%

Because of Wilson's status as a one-year wonder, there are doubts about how reflective 2020 was of his true ability. And it doesn't help that 2020 comes with questions about BYU's weak, cobbled-together schedule as a result of the pandemic. However, even with the one-year wonder penalty (which isn't too harsh because Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson were also one-year wonders), Wilson earns a high projection. Aside from carrying BYU to an 11-1 record, he completed 73.5% of his passes while regularly showing off his arm strength and putting up solid rushing numbers. Moreover, if he is taken second overall as many expect, his projection will be neck-and-neck with Lawrence's at 0.72. Having said that, in addition to one-year wonder and schedule concerns, which we have accounted for, there are also durability concerns with Wilson that are harder to quantify but are still worth taking into consideration.

3. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (12)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.18 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 43.4%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 18.6%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 11.7%

Lance put together one of the most statistically impressive seasons ever in 2019, rushing for a Lamar Jackson-esque 6.5 yards per attempt and throwing zero interceptions. Even though he played for an FCS school, had he duplicated that performance in 2020, he may well have been in the running for the first overall pick. However, due to the pandemic, his season was cancelled, making him a one-year starter a year removed from competitive football, aside from one game in fall 2020 against Central Arkansas. As a result, even though his potential remains sky-high, QBASE v2.0 can't put him in the top tier. Still, if the San Francisco 49ers take him with the third overall pick after their big trade with Miami, then his projection will jump all the way up to 0.44.

4. Justin Fields, Ohio State (13)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.26 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 40.8%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 26.8%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 19.8%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 12.5%

Fields' grade may be closer to Lance's than Wilson's, but that's more a testament to the strength of this class than anything wrong with Fields. He had a 70.2% completion rate in 2020 and ran for more yards per attempt than anyone except Lance. Despite that, his numbers weren't as impressive overall as Wilson's, and compared to Wilson and Lawrence, he had a lot of help from talented receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and linemen in Wyatt Davis and Josh Myers. However, if Fields is the 49ers' pick at 3, then his projection will be 0.53, higher than Lance's but not as high as Lawrence's or Wilson's.

5. Mac Jones, Alabama (28)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -0.14 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 54.8%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 24.1%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 13.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 7.1%

Unlike the four prospects above him, Jones is not mobile: he rushed for just 0.4 yards per attempt in 2020. However, his completion rate was an insane 77.4%, edging out Joe Burrow for the highest of any quarterback we have ever analyzed. Then again, Jones had a lot of help. In this year's draft alone, Scouts Inc. projects two of his receivers—DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle—as top-11 picks. And next year, tackle Evan Neal could go that high as well. Couple that with Jones being a one- to two-year starter who also gets a partial one-year wonder penalty for the difference between his 2019 and 2020 seasons, and QBASE v2.0 sees him as a cut below the top four, albeit still with a decent chance of NFL success. That said, if rumors are true and he goes to the 49ers at No. 3, Jones' projection will be 0.38. That's high, but lower than Lance or Fields would be if taken at No. 3.

6. Kyle Trask, Florida (71)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -0.98 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 80.9%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 13.0%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 4.8%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 1.4%

Like Jones, Trask is a pocket passer who played on a loaded offense, led by elite tight end Kyle Pitts. And while his 68.9% completion rate was almost as high as Lawrence's, it wasn't Jones-ian enough to make up for his other weaknesses. Throw in a lower projected draft position and a partial one-year wonder penalty and Trask earns a low grade. However, there is some consolation to Trask's status. NFL teams are more aware of the value of mobile quarterbacks, meaning a top-100 scouting grade for a pocket passer may have more weight than one for a quarterback who runs well. Therefore, if teams are now undervaluing pocket passers instead of the other way around, they may be undervaluing Trask too.

7. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (82)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -0.66 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 72.8%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 17.4%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 7.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 2.5%

While many scouts view Trask more favorably than Mond, and Trask has the higher completion percentage of the two, QBASE v2.0 gives Mond the higher grade (as would QBASE). First of all, he's more mobile than Trask; second, his team wasn't as stacked; and third, he was a four-year starter. Especially these days, there are plenty of successful NFL quarterbacks who weren't four-year starters, but sometimes having that extra experience can be helpful, as in the case of Justin Herbert last year.

8. Jamie Newman, Georgia (94)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -1.44 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 90.1%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 7.2%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 2.1%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 0.5%

Finally, Newman is an unusual case. He gets the seventh-lowest projection since 2004, and given that he's a borderline one- to two-year starter with a 60.9% completion rate, this result isn't surprising. But under normal circumstances, one- to two-year starters with low completion percentages don't usually go in the top 100 picks, so they wouldn't be part of QBASE v2.0. However, due to the pandemic, Newman, who had just transferred from Wake Forest to Georgia, decided to skip 2020 and declare for the draft. If he had played instead, he would likely have either raised his completion percentage and earned a much higher grade, or not raised it and not be in this model. As such, his projection may not fully reflect his ability.

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While I’m glad and relieved that the Jets have decided to move on from Sam, I am profoundly disappointed that it didn’t work out. I was all in on him and thought he would be great here. He deserved better than the Jets gave him and deserves a fresh start elsewhere. His failures were a combination of his own shortcomings and the direct and collateral damage from having the worst GM and HC tandem in the history of the sport.

I religiously root for the laundry and never care about players who move on from the team, but I will be rooting hard for Sam’s success with the Panthers.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

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7 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Yeah, and the one organization that uses draft history and player performance to make such projections says that Wilson is only just slightly more risky than Trevor Lawrence. So what's your point again?

Projections for the 2021 Draft Class

Like QBASE, QBASE v2.0 generates projections for the 2021 class and runs 50,000 simulations to calculate a range of possible outcomes. Generally, "Bust" is a backup or out of the league, "Adequate Starter" is a starter but not a franchise quarterback, "Upper Tier" is a franchise quarterback, and "Elite" is Hall of Fame-worthy. Also like QBASE, QBASE v2.0 shows no projection is a certainty: every quarterback has a chance to become elite, and even Trevor Lawrence has a 25.4% chance of becoming a bust. As stated earlier, to project each quarterback's draft position, we use Scouts Inc's 2021 Player Rankings.

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Scouts Inc. Ranking: 1)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.73 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 25.4%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 25.5%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 24.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 24.2%

Lawrence is widely seen as a generational prospect, on par with such quarterbacks as John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck. QBASE v2.0 says that while there's no guarantee Lawrence will live up to the hype, if anyone deserves it, he's the one. While he had quality receivers at Clemson, such as Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell, he put up elite numbers three years in a row, and he checks all the accuracy, mobility, and arm strength boxes. The Jacksonville Jaguars picked the right year to go 1-15.

2. Zach Wilson, BYU (5)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.60 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 29.0%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 26.6%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 24.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 20.2%

Because of Wilson's status as a one-year wonder, there are doubts about how reflective 2020 was of his true ability. And it doesn't help that 2020 comes with questions about BYU's weak, cobbled-together schedule as a result of the pandemic. However, even with the one-year wonder penalty (which isn't too harsh because Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson were also one-year wonders), Wilson earns a high projection. Aside from carrying BYU to an 11-1 record, he completed 73.5% of his passes while regularly showing off his arm strength and putting up solid rushing numbers. Moreover, if he is taken second overall as many expect, his projection will be neck-and-neck with Lawrence's at 0.72. Having said that, in addition to one-year wonder and schedule concerns, which we have accounted for, there are also durability concerns with Wilson that are harder to quantify but are still worth taking into consideration.

3. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (12)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.18 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 43.4%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 18.6%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 11.7%

Lance put together one of the most statistically impressive seasons ever in 2019, rushing for a Lamar Jackson-esque 6.5 yards per attempt and throwing zero interceptions. Even though he played for an FCS school, had he duplicated that performance in 2020, he may well have been in the running for the first overall pick. However, due to the pandemic, his season was cancelled, making him a one-year starter a year removed from competitive football, aside from one game in fall 2020 against Central Arkansas. As a result, even though his potential remains sky-high, QBASE v2.0 can't put him in the top tier. Still, if the San Francisco 49ers take him with the third overall pick after their big trade with Miami, then his projection will jump all the way up to 0.44.

4. Justin Fields, Ohio State (13)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 0.26 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 40.8%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 26.8%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 19.8%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 12.5%

Fields' grade may be closer to Lance's than Wilson's, but that's more a testament to the strength of this class than anything wrong with Fields. He had a 70.2% completion rate in 2020 and ran for more yards per attempt than anyone except Lance. Despite that, his numbers weren't as impressive overall as Wilson's, and compared to Wilson and Lawrence, he had a lot of help from talented receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and linemen in Wyatt Davis and Josh Myers. However, if Fields is the 49ers' pick at 3, then his projection will be 0.53, higher than Lance's but not as high as Lawrence's or Wilson's.

5. Mac Jones, Alabama (28)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -0.14 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 54.8%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 24.1%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 13.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 7.1%

Unlike the four prospects above him, Jones is not mobile: he rushed for just 0.4 yards per attempt in 2020. However, his completion rate was an insane 77.4%, edging out Joe Burrow for the highest of any quarterback we have ever analyzed. Then again, Jones had a lot of help. In this year's draft alone, Scouts Inc. projects two of his receivers—DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle—as top-11 picks. And next year, tackle Evan Neal could go that high as well. Couple that with Jones being a one- to two-year starter who also gets a partial one-year wonder penalty for the difference between his 2019 and 2020 seasons, and QBASE v2.0 sees him as a cut below the top four, albeit still with a decent chance of NFL success. That said, if rumors are true and he goes to the 49ers at No. 3, Jones' projection will be 0.38. That's high, but lower than Lance or Fields would be if taken at No. 3.

6. Kyle Trask, Florida (71)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -0.98 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 80.9%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 13.0%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 4.8%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 1.4%

Like Jones, Trask is a pocket passer who played on a loaded offense, led by elite tight end Kyle Pitts. And while his 68.9% completion rate was almost as high as Lawrence's, it wasn't Jones-ian enough to make up for his other weaknesses. Throw in a lower projected draft position and a partial one-year wonder penalty and Trask earns a low grade. However, there is some consolation to Trask's status. NFL teams are more aware of the value of mobile quarterbacks, meaning a top-100 scouting grade for a pocket passer may have more weight than one for a quarterback who runs well. Therefore, if teams are now undervaluing pocket passers instead of the other way around, they may be undervaluing Trask too.

7. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (82)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -0.66 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 72.8%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 17.4%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 7.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 2.5%

While many scouts view Trask more favorably than Mond, and Trask has the higher completion percentage of the two, QBASE v2.0 gives Mond the higher grade (as would QBASE). First of all, he's more mobile than Trask; second, his team wasn't as stacked; and third, he was a four-year starter. Especially these days, there are plenty of successful NFL quarterbacks who weren't four-year starters, but sometimes having that extra experience can be helpful, as in the case of Justin Herbert last year.

8. Jamie Newman, Georgia (94)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -1.44 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A) 90.1%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A) 7.2%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A) 2.1%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 0.5%

Finally, Newman is an unusual case. He gets the seventh-lowest projection since 2004, and given that he's a borderline one- to two-year starter with a 60.9% completion rate, this result isn't surprising. But under normal circumstances, one- to two-year starters with low completion percentages don't usually go in the top 100 picks, so they wouldn't be part of QBASE v2.0. However, due to the pandemic, Newman, who had just transferred from Wake Forest to Georgia, decided to skip 2020 and declare for the draft. If he had played instead, he would likely have either raised his completion percentage and earned a much higher grade, or not raised it and not be in this model. As such, his projection may not fully reflect his ability.

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dont know if you guys seen this, didnt feel like reading 31 pages...

just had to post this for all those sam fans i argued with these past few weeks who told me there will be no QB controversy, no distraction.

 

 

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