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One year wonder


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30 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Two things can be true at once.  He might (and I would hope does) believe strongly in Wilson.  And in doing so it can also be good for his job security.

You're wrong, it is clearly the safe move, as history tends to show, but believe whatever you like.  Not worth arguing about tbqh.

Lol you presented your opinion as fact, but now you feel its “not worth arguing about” and that I am wrong.

priceless

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2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Bingo. None of these simplistic narratives really work. One year wonder? air raid offense QB? Small school QB? There are major exceptions everywhere. 

If there were rules that made this stuff easy to project, there would be very few busts. 

Andy Reid looked at the tape of Mahomes and moved up to get him and unloaded Smith.  It had zero to do with team, team mates, competition.  The kid had a unique talent and the commitment to succeed.  Douglas obviously thinks Zach has unique throwing talent and total commitment.  He's either right or he's not.  

You think Bear Bryant recruited Joe Namath because of the strength of schedule in Beaver Falls.  He watched the film of him throwing and running and thought he was going to be the greatest QB in school history.

If Douglas is right were doing the right thing.  If he's wrong rinse repeat...

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19 minutes ago, Pac said:

You know sometimes you can dismiss an article immediately. Such as this one.

In the first paragraph he states "Operates exclusively out of shotgun formation"

Then says he watched every snap and has a weak arm,  Well of the big prospects he threw the most from under center of any of them.

Also says he is ineffective at play action.

Might be the worst write up ever seen. There is no question he did not really watch Wilson.

Ends with this beautiful nugget:

There is absolutely nothing dominant to his game combined with average arm and accuracy. Classic overhyped player. Manufactured quarterback. Surefire bust.

Look you can dislike Wilson. But when everything you say is literally and completely wrong you just have to figure he watched like 5 mins of Coastal Carolina and created this drivel.

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2 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

You know sometimes you can dismiss an article immediately. Such as this one.

In the first paragraph he states "Operates exclusively out of shotgun formation"

Then says he watched every snap and has a weak arm,  Well of the big prospects he threw the most from under center of any of them.

Also says he is ineffective at play action.

Might be the worst write up ever seen. There is no question he did not really watch Wilson.

Ends with this beautiful nugget:

There is absolutely nothing dominant to his game combined with average arm and accuracy. Classic overhyped player. Manufactured quarterback. Surefire bust.

Look you can dislike Wilson. But when everything you say is literally and completely wrong you just have to figure he watched like 5 mins of Coastal Carolina and created this drivel.

Not entirely disagreeing with you but this a former scout under Parcells.  Willing to admit he knows more than us about evaluations but he does seem overly critical.

Hopefully hes wrong.

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That's pretty much an annual rite of passage.
  • O'Brien vs. Marino
  • Toon vs. Rice
  • Revis vs. Sherman
  • Quinnen vs. Ed Oliver
  • even the grossly misplaced Wilkerson vs. Watt for about 15 minutes
 
 
You forgot Pennington vs Brady
Well, if I'm averaging, I just found my disqualified low value. Plenty of high values though.

That's the worst review of a player I've ever seen.
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48 minutes ago, Warfish said:

He just bought himself three years at least.

As was discussed at length already, this move (toss Darnold, draft a rookie) is the "safe move" for an NFL GM.  He now has at least three years he might not have gotten if he stuck with Sam.

Hopefully he made the move for the right reasons, but unquestionably it's the right move for his own job security.

 

if wilson flops and darnold shines in carolina, it will not have been the right move for his job security.  so i don't think the word unquestionably is apt, even if this represents your personal opinion

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I know some people in Utah.  

We should start hurting Wilson's reputation.   Release statements saying:

1.  He was seen with caffeine on BYU campus.

2.  He received massages with direct skin to skin contact.

 

Maybe we can still avoid this mistake.

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2 hours ago, Paradis said:

This one will be Wilson vs Fields. 

Not sure of that. It seems like it is doubtful that Fields will even be selected 3rd.  But who cares? Let's take a page from Vermeil and

"We will rally around Kurt Warner Zach Wilson and play good football".

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1 minute ago, Mike135 said:

I know some people in Utah.  

We should start hurting Wilson's reputation.   Release statements saying:

1.  He was seen with caffeine on BYU campus.

2.  He received massages with direct skin to skin contact.

 

Maybe we can still avoid this mistake.

Maybe Wilson has a 53 woman roster of Instagram masseuses like Watson does 

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1 minute ago, Jet Life said:

Maybe Wilson has a 53 woman roster of Instagram masseuses like Watson does 

If we go civil...  no one will know for months/years if any of it is true.  We can report hundreds of things.

Then we could prevent the Jets from drafting him.

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11 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

if wilson flops and darnold shines in carolina, it will not have been the right move for his job security.  so i don't think the word unquestionably is apt, even if this represents your personal opinion

Darnold in Carolina is almost irrelevant now to JD.  Someone elses guy, was a bust here, etc.

Wilson flopping (if it happens) will take three years, just like Sam did.  Maybe four.

It's absolutely apt.  There is no scenario where JD lowered his short term job security via this move.  Whereas keeping Darnold, not drafting a QB, and it not working out would have had JD on the hotseat in 2022,

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25 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Lol you presented your opinion as fact, but now you feel its “not worth arguing about” and that I am wrong.

priceless

If you want to keep talking about it, feel free.  No one is stopping you.

Hard to see how this hurts JD's job security, but feel to keep arguing about it if you like.

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25 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

You know sometimes you can dismiss an article immediately. Such as this one.

In the first paragraph he states "Operates exclusively out of shotgun formation"

Then says he watched every snap and has a weak arm,  Well of the big prospects he threw the most from under center of any of them.

Also says he is ineffective at play action.

Might be the worst write up ever seen. There is no question he did not really watch Wilson.

Ends with this beautiful nugget:

There is absolutely nothing dominant to his game combined with average arm and accuracy. Classic overhyped player. Manufactured quarterback. Surefire bust.

Look you can dislike Wilson. But when everything you say is literally and completely wrong you just have to figure he watched like 5 mins of Coastal Carolina and created this drivel.

This write up makes no sense. He states Wilson has excellent pocket poise and presence, smart and processes quickly. Then he states he has a weak arm and he would not even draft him??? We have seen throws on tape 60yds downfield on a line. I have not seen anywhere anybody questioning his arm strength. Maybe he was studying tape from when he had a torn labrum???

He also says Trevor Lawrence will bust BTW

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44 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Randy Moss 1 year wonder at Marshall.  96 receptions, 1820 yards 19 per catch 26 TD's.

NFL rookie Year 80 receptions, 1413 yards 19 per catch 17TD's to lead the league  All pro, offensive rookie of the year.  

Must have been the NFL like competition at Marshall that prepared him for the NFL.  

You do understand how little a single cherry picked example at a different position means, right?

If you did, you'd be aware of how many other one-year-wonder WR's didn't end up being HOF'er Randy Moss, lol.

And you'd see that the odds of a one-year-wonder at a small school vs. weak opposition becoming Randy Moss is quite low when you look at the whole population, not a single example.

But I know you know that, surely.  

Wilson being a small school kid, who played literally no one, isn't all he is.  It's one factor, of many, to evaluate.

 

 

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

That's pretty much an annual rite of passage.

  • O'Brien vs. Marino
  • Toon vs. Rice
  • Revis vs. Sherman
  • Quinnen vs. Ed Oliver
  • even the grossly misplaced Wilkerson vs. Watt for about 15 minutes

 

 

Penny v. Brady was a thing for a hot second back on JI too. Penny vs. Peyton too after 41-0. 

Imagine not only thinking Penny was good, but that he was better than two of the goats. lol. 

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If you want to keep talking about it, feel free.  No one is stopping you.

Hard to see how this hurts JD's job security, but feel to keep arguing about it if you like.

I don't know if you're right here. 

From a job security standpoint, this one pushes Douglas's GM-ing/QB-picking assessment a year earlier. That's how it could hurt him. He has to not only pick the right QB from a bunch, but also has to bet Darnold still sucks elsewhere. He's got real risk doing this.

  • Darnold was a top 3 pick saddled with bad coaching and a lower-end supporting cast (that this past year was loaded with injuries, too).
  • Douglas could have easily let it be known the new CS wanted to work with Darnold, and thought they could fix him - as Carolina does now - and then drafts his "own" new QB next year instead.
  • Then this 3 year clock of assessing that Douglas-drafted QB begins in 2022 instead of 2021.

So arguably he'd have one extra mulligan year by doing it that way instead.

That is, unless you think he'd actually get fired after just his second draft, with 3 more fully guaranteed seasons left on his contract, when exactly no one faulted him for not selecting a different QB in the first of his 2 drafts -- if anything, he was faulted for taking one as early as he did last year.

Maccagnan went through the same thing, frankly, until Gase got him fired. He was still able to keep his job until his real shot at a FQB flopped. Even whiffing on Hackenberg, after seeing the Eagles & Rams have SB seasons behind (or mostly behind) the QBs he declined to trade up to get. Still didn't get fired, and he didn't have nearly Douglas's long contract of job security to rest upon.

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

You do understand how little a single cherry picked example at a different position means, right?

If you did, you'd be aware of how many other one-year-wonder WR's didn't end up being HOF'er Randy Moss, lol.

And you'd see that the odds of a one-year-wonder at a small school vs. weak opposition becoming Randy Moss is quite low when you look at the whole population, not a single example.

But I know you know that, surely.  

Wilson being a small school kid, who played literally no one, isn't all he is.  It's one factor, of many, to evaluate.

 

 

You do understand that most great college QB's wash out in the NFL.  That's a given.  So yes I do understand the cherry picking and it's the same on the other side.  

The NFL is loaded with small school players who are All pro, HOF players.  The NFL today doesn't have the NCAA running a minor league farm system for them anymore.  Guys are coming out with limited resume's and that's the way it is.   It doesn't matter where they went to school or how good their resume looks.  

If you're making the argument that having a multi year resume vs a 1 year wonder means anything today have at it.  Most QB's who have the goods are playing as 1 or 2 year starters in college.  You're also looking at a handful of guys at the QB position who were recruited highly who won't mature to the NFL and others who will grow past their competition.   You're dealing with limited looks, different points of maturation, etc., etc., etc.  

Guys who have it are going into the draft.  They're not starting for 3 years after sitting as a freshman.  They are coming out getting past their rookie deal and they either have it or they don't.  Guys who stick around today is a red flag.  Mac Jones had to stick around and so did Fields.   Zach Wilson doesn't that's one of the reasons he's going ahead of them. 

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16 minutes ago, Barkus said:

This write up makes no sense. He states Wilson has excellent pocket poise and presence, smart and processes quickly. Then he states he has a weak arm and he would not even draft him??? We have seen throws on tape 60yds downfield on a line. I have not seen anywhere anybody questioning his arm strength. Maybe he was studying tape from when he had a torn labrum???

He also says Trevor Lawrence will bust BTW

Yeah he is just looking for clicks. Trevor is not a perfect QB and does have bust potential but all drafted QBs do.

I think a couple things:

1. This will be the year that is remembered as 1983 Part II. I think all of the Top 5 and maybe even Mills and Mond will be succesfull

2. Despte what this review says, I think Zach has the biggest arm in the draft. He just throws passes at the best speed for the situation so sometimes it's fast sometimes its slower. There was one scout who said that people questioned Rodgers arm for the same reason.

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19 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Darnold in Carolina is almost irrelevant now to JD.  Someone elses guy, was a bust here, etc.

Wilson flopping (if it happens) will take three years, just like Sam did.  Maybe four.

It's absolutely apt.  There is no scenario where JD lowered his short term job security via this move.  Whereas keeping Darnold, not drafting a QB, and it not working out would have had JD on the hotseat in 2022,

 

JD has plenty of job security at this juncture.  the decisions he makes this off-season will impact how much job security he has in the future.  this includes his decision to stick with or move on from darnold (and yes, darnold theoretically succeeding in another uniform after JD shipped him off will definitely impact JD's job security), and now that he has made that decision, who he drafts to replace sam will impact his future.  all decisions he makes impact his future job security.  it's the nature of the beast.  granted some decisions have a larger impact than others.  but you are being naive if you think his bosses will just shrug off any success sam has elsewhere (hypothetically) after JD made the call to move on from sam, especially if JD's hand-picked successor flops (also hypotehetically).

perhaps i am reading you incorrectly, but it seems to me you are phrasing it this way in part to make it like JD made this move to enhance his own job security.  i think a better reading is JD made this move because he thinks it is in the best long-term interest of the jets.  JD has a 6-year contract.  he's getting paid the full amount regardless of what happens from here on.  but his long-term future is linked to the jets' long-term success.  unless he is a complete moron, he is making moves he thinks best benefit the jets chances to win on the field, rather than making moves that buy him another year under a contract that already guarantees him payment.  if his plan works and he builds a sustainable winner (however his bosses define that), he will get an extension/raise.  if it doesn't, they will part ways somewhere down the line, another GM in the jets' trash bin.

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11 minutes ago, Biggs said:

You do understand that most great college QB's wash out in the NFL.  That's a given.  So yes I do understand the cherry picking and it's the same on the other side.  

The NFL is loaded with small school players who are All pro, HOF players.  The NFL today doesn't have the NCAA running a minor league farm system for them anymore.  Guys are coming out with limited resume's and that's the way it is.   It doesn't matter where they went to school or how good their resume looks.  

If you're making the argument that having a multi year resume vs a 1 year wonder means anything today have at it.  Most QB's who have the goods are playing as 1 or 2 year starters in college.  You're also looking at a handful of guys at the QB position who were recruited highly who won't mature to the NFL and others who will grow past their competition.   You're dealing with limited looks, different points of maturation, etc., etc., etc.  

Guys who have it are going into the draft.  They're not starting for 3 years after sitting as a freshman.  They are coming out getting past their rookie deal and they either have it or they don't.  Guys who stick around today is a red flag.  Mac Jones had to stick around and so did Fields.   Zach Wilson doesn't that's one of the reasons he's going ahead of them. 

I'm arguing the Wilsons's weak opposition is a factor.  Not the only factor.

I'm not arguing about him being a one-year wonder (others have that issue), he had one great year, but he at least played two other years which we can also evaluate and judge.

If his only resume of play was 2020, then yes, I'd argue limited resume.  The fact he wasn't all-world in his first two years is also a factor to consider.

How much weight one chooses to put on these factors is up to them.  But they are factors regardless.

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8 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

perhaps i am reading you incorrectly, but it seems to me you are phrasing it this way in part to make it like JD made this move to enhance his own job security. 

That is incorrect.

I think JD made this move because he doesn't believe in Darnold, and he does believe in Wilson, period endstop.  

I ALSO believe it happens to be the best move for JD's job security for the long(er) term.

With Darnold, the Jets must compete in 2021.

Without Darnold, pressure is off, we suck....oh well, rookie QB, what did we expect.  

Already we have posters excusing 2021 as a lost/wins-don't-matter season.

Had we retained Darnold, wins would have mattered.

It's really that simple IMO.

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14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'm arguing the Wilsons's weak opposition is a factor.  Not the only factor.

I'm not arguing about him being a one-year wonder (others have that issue), he had one great year, but he at least played two other years which we can also evaluate and judge.

If his only resume of play was 2020, then yes, I'd argue limited resume.  The fact he wasn't all-world in his first two years is also a factor to consider.

How much weight one chooses to put on these factors is up to them.  But they are factors regardless.

I consider it to be a factor.  He matured, he took care of an injury and he worked his ass off and improved.  Men in their early 20's are at all different points of maturity.  An early bloomer might well over influence you if you put to much on it.  It works both ways.

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14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

That is incorrect.

I think JD made this move because he doesn't believe in Darnold, and he does believe in Wilson, period endstop.  

I ALSO believe it happens to be the best move for JD's job security for the long(er) term.

With Darnold, the Jets must compete in 2021.

Without Darnold, pressure is off, we suck....oh well, rookie QB, what did we expect.  

Already we have posters excusing 2021 as a lost/wins-don't-matter season.

Had we retained Darnold, wins would have mattered.

It's really that simple IMO.

 

being in only year 3 of a 6 year contract, i don't think there was any way in hades that JD would be fired after the 2021 season.  he may have been on the proverbial hot seat, with the press and fans leading the pitchfork and lantern brigade.  but i don't think that rolling it back with same (assumedly while also trading back and adding more draft picks), would have potentially led to JD's firing after next year.  he's under contract through 2024 and i can't see the johnson's (or any owner) dumping a GM in year 3 of a 6 year contract.

so in the end, JD's long-term job security is tied to getting his NEXT contract (he's already getting paid through 2024).  this decision, probably more than anything else JD has or will make, likely will have a greater impact on that job security.  

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12 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

being in only year 3 of a 6 year contract, i don't think there was any way in hades that JD would be fired after the 2021 season.  he may have been on the proverbial hot seat, with the press and fans leading the pitchfork and lantern brigade.  but i don't think that rolling it back with same (assumedly while also trading back and adding more draft picks), would have potentially led to JD's firing after next year.  he's under contract through 2024 and i can't see the johnson's (or any owner) dumping a GM in year 3 of a 6 year contract.

so in the end, JD's long-term job security is tied to getting his NEXT contract (he's already getting paid through 2024).  this decision, probably more than anything else JD has or will make, likely will have a greater impact on that job security.  

Small correction.  Douglas was hired in June, 2019 on a six-year deal.  He will be payed through 2025.  His seat isn't hot.  It's not even warm. 

 

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You do understand that most great college QB's wash out in the NFL. That's a given.  So yes I do understand the cherry picking and it's the same on the other side.  
The NFL is loaded with small school players who are All pro, HOF players.  The NFL today doesn't have the NCAA running a minor league farm system for them anymore.  Guys are coming out with limited resume's and that's the way it is.   It doesn't matter where they went to school or how good their resume looks.
Neither of those statements are true of QBs.

Data on QB bust rates is popular. Here's one - from 2000 to 2017, 71% of top 10 drafted QBs have lasted 5+ years. Half have thrown for 4000+ yds, 75% for 3200+ yds at least once.

Now I wouldn't say that's makes the greatest argument for top 10 QBs, but it also isn't in line with "most great college QB's wash out in the NFL."

Here's a list of small school drafted QBs, how many are in the HOF? How many were All-Pro?

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Best-FCS-small-school-quarterbacks-in-NFL-college-football-history-Trey-Lance-Carson-Wentz-Phil-Simms-Joe-Flacco-146757472/#146757472_9

I think no HOF and one, Rich Gannon, All-Pro.
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11 hours ago, isired said:


 

Neither of those statements are true of QBs.

Data on QB bust rates is popular. Here's one - from 2000 to 2017, 71% of top 10 drafted QBs have lasted 5+ years. Half have thrown for 4000+ yds, 75% for 3200+ yds at least once.

Now I wouldn't say that's makes the greatest argument for top 10 QBs, but it also isn't in line with "most great college QB's wash out in the NFL."

Here's a list of small school drafted QBs, how many are in the HOF? How many were All-Pro?

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Best-FCS-small-school-quarterbacks-in-NFL-college-football-history-Trey-Lance-Carson-Wentz-Phil-Simms-Joe-Flacco-146757472/#146757472_9

I think no HOF and one, Rich Gannon, All-Pro.

Good enlightening post!  Nice counter point.

I'm going to move the needle a little which is not an attack on your very good points.    For me, if you draft a QB in the top 10 and they aren't starting for your team and playing at a high level by year 4 while not a washout they have certainly underperformed expectations.  Every team carries 3 QB's so you would expect a top 10 pick to hang around.  If you draft a QB in the top 10 the expectation is high quality starter by year 3.  Reality is there have been 34 QB's taken in the top 10 since 2000.  Here are a few of the names which I would call disappointing and essentially washouts or busts as high caliber starting NFL QB's.

Jamarcus Russell, Jake Locker, Josh Rosen, Matt Leinart, Blaine Gabbert, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Robert Griffin, Blake Bortles, Bryon Leftwich, Vince Young, Marcus Marriotta, Jamies Winston, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Mitch Trubisky.  That's 16 out of 34 QB's drafted in the top 10 since 2000.   I view all of them as busts for the team that drafted them in the top 10.  Granted some are because of injury so I admit up front that's not really fair to the drafting process.  In that group I would probably take out Bradford and you can make an argument that Griffin would have been great although he's injury was related to his style of play so I'm not sure there isn't some risk analysis that falls on the drafting team.  (good potential debate topic)  I also left off Sam Darnold, we can add him after next season. (Tongue in cheek)

QB is also a slightly different animal.  There's only 32 starters and there are 96 spots on most NFL rosters.  If you go in the top 10 and can't get into the top 96 in which 2/3 of the carry a clip board for a majority of their careers I don't think that's a good standard to judge a top 10 pick.  Neither is a year with 4,000 passing yards once or twice.  

FYI Lamar Jackson hasn't passed for 3200 yards and was all pro and MVP already.   There are a lot of crappy QB's who have had 3200 and even 4,000 yard season.  There are Jets fans on this board that think Namath sucked who was the first to do it and Bob Griese who never passed for 2500 yards was awesome.  

 

 

 

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Stats are fun but traits are what matters.  Wilson's accuracy at multiple levels of the field is outstanding and he consistently puts his receivers in position to get to a ball that a defender has no chance at.

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18 hours ago, johnnysd said:

You know sometimes you can dismiss an article immediately. Such as this one.

In the first paragraph he states "Operates exclusively out of shotgun formation"

Then says he watched every snap and has a weak arm,  Well of the big prospects he threw the most from under center of any of them.

Also says he is ineffective at play action.

Might be the worst write up ever seen. There is no question he did not really watch Wilson.

Ends with this beautiful nugget:

There is absolutely nothing dominant to his game combined with average arm and accuracy. Classic overhyped player. Manufactured quarterback. Surefire bust.

Look you can dislike Wilson. But when everything you say is literally and completely wrong you just have to figure he watched like 5 mins of Coastal Carolina and created this drivel.

  1. Lack of instincts for the position of quarterback. He looks like a “manufactured QB,” In other words, he looks like a good athlete who was trained and well-coached to be a quarterback. He does not at all look like someone who was born to be a quarterback.

Amazing!

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Randy Moss 1 year wonder at Marshall.  96 receptions, 1820 yards 19 per catch 26 TD's.
NFL rookie Year 80 receptions, 1413 yards 19 per catch 17TD's to lead the league  All pro, offensive rookie of the year.  
Must have been the NFL like competition at Marshall that prepared him for the NFL.  
Randy Moss played Notre Dame and Florida St. prior to arriving at Marshall...

Sent from my SM-G930VL using JetNation.com mobile app

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19 hours ago, Pac said:

Not entirely disagreeing with you but this a former scout under Parcells.  Willing to admit he knows more than us about evaluations but he does seem overly critical.

Hopefully hes wrong.

Dementia is a thing 

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21 hours ago, nycdan said:

If we are comparing them for 10 years, it means both teams did well.  I think I'd be content with that.

On the flip side, if this doesn’t work out I expect we’ll still be comparing Adams to Mahomes in six years. So perhaps it wouldn’t mean both teams did well.

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