Zach Wilson: My Scouting

[JustInFudge]

17 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Because subjectively you don’t actually believe it was good work lol & then you came back here to further express that in what felt like a snide manner. If you thought I was wrong in my analysis, fair, but I would of liked the respect to counter that with my own point. Felt like you found the Wilson thread that supports your own thoughts and said “get a load of those mouth breathers in the rival thread”. So yes, probably should of tried the whole dismantling thing, because I do believe I have a basic understanding of how to play QB & I’ve played this game.

Sigh....it wasnt directed at you.  It was directed at the responses of the masses in your thread vs. the responses in this thread.  I appreciated your effort.  Some takes, I agreed with, other takes, I disagreed with and said so in your thread.  I have found that in my life, people disagree on things and there are ways of handling those disagreements.  I didnt find it appropriate to challenge you in that thread because you obviously put a ton of effort into it and were getting a lot of adoration.  It didnt seem like a respectful thing to do.  So instead, I told you I appreciate your efforts even though I disagreed with it.  I'm sorry that this offended you. I momentarily forgot how sensitive and serious this topic is and I got carried away by saying something that was clearly outrageously offensive. 

 

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

You have a hard time doing that yourself & what’s worse is you act like your opinions are more legitimate than everyone else’s for whatever reason. You hated on Baker this exact same way 3 years ago. Baker is still on his first team, been thru 3 coaches & still made the playoffs.

Dude, you have to be kidding me?  I literally rep'd your posts and told you that I appreciated your work and moved on!  lol  You just got mad I didnt challenge you and now you're complaining about challenging you?!?!?!?!

THERE IS NO PLEASING YOU!!!! lol

[JustInFudge]

[Tranquilo]

3 minutes ago, JiF said:

Dude, you have to be kidding me?  I literally rep'd your posts and told you that I appreciated your work and moved on!  lol  You just got mad I didnt challenge you and now you're complaining about challenging you?!?!?!?!

THERE IS NO PLEASING YOU!!!! lol

Nice deflection 

[Patriot Killa]

4 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

It’s become a complete cluster f**k when someone tries to bring up the fact that Wilson has faults and isn’t this supreme Patrick Mahomes clone.  I’m almost at the point where I hope this kid is a major bust.  

This is simply untrue. way to dramatize it all for us. Nobody has ever said he was a ******* supreme Patrick Mahomes clone lol. Don’t make things up. The majority of us acknowledge his flaws and never try to skip over it.

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

Nice deflection 

[Tranquilo]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

 

5 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

Nice deflection 

 

[Patriot Killa]

13 minutes ago, JiF said:

Sigh....it wasnt directed at you.  It was directed at the responses of the masses in your thread vs. the responses in this thread.  I appreciated your effort.  Some takes, I agreed with, other takes, I disagreed with and said so in your thread.  I have found that in my life, people disagree on things and there are ways of handling those disagreements.  I didnt find it appropriate to challenge you in that thread because you obviously put a ton of effort into it and were getting a lot of adoration.  It didnt seem like a respectful thing to do.  So instead, I told you I appreciate your efforts even though I disagreed with it.  I'm sorry that this offended you. I momentarily forgot how sensitive and serious this topic is and I got carried away by saying something that was clearly outrageously offensive. 

 

Now that you explained it like this, I see where I misinterpreted your post, and I am sorry  for feeling so easily attacked. It is not a sensitive subject, it doesn’t need an emotional input & while it DID seem snide at first, it was not outrageously offensive.(even though I know you were being sarcastic) 

My apologies to you JiF. It’s cool. Moving on now.

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Now that you explained it like this, I see where I misinterpreted your post, and I am sorry  for feeling so easily attacked. It is not a sensitive subject, it doesn’t need an emotional input & while it DID seem snide at first, it was not outrageously offensive.(even though I know you were being sarcastic) 

My apologies to you JiF. It’s cool. Moving on now.

[win4ever]

6 hours ago, CTM said:

Same.. fields is the best of the lot to me. I didnt want to draft Lawrence which is why I was ok with those late season wins. But I'd be 100x more comfortable with him than Wilson, so careful what you wish for 

I think they all have some form of upside, but the reality is that you can technically pick and choose upside with anyone.  Heck, at some point there was at least a hint of optimism about Geno/Hackenberg/Petty and definitely Darnold.  In my view, it's about risk mitigation and Fields on the field (idk if he has off the field issues) combines very high ceiling with a high floor because his athletic ability will keep things afloat.  Like Josh Allen when he couldn't hit passes, but still performed decently because he had the athletic ability to make plays out of nothing.  

6 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Deff not the only. Some of us were posting about it even before the COVID CFB season started!

Same. Was fun watching the meltdowns all over the boards after the Rams game. Now I'm the one having a meltdown that we're essentially going to forgo a guy who I think will be best in class to take the quarterback version of the Ghost at #2 overall because his marketing team was able to woo a bunch of fans. 

That's actually another point about BYU, where it's not even a regular season, but rather a Covid season playing a bunch of guys that have no shot whatsoever at playing in the NFL.  So we have less talented guys with even less preparation than normal in the weirdest year of their generation, but it's taken as normal.  

I think I asked this before.  What is the difference between Trey Lance at the end of 2019? and Wilson at the end of 2020?  Both one year wonders, both coming off exceptional years with teams that are more talented than their peers.  Lance gets the "Yeah, he may need a year, physical freak" tag, while Wilson gets the "God damn cryogenic Mahomes!!" tag.   

[win4ever]

6 hours ago, JiF said:

True, there were a handful of us, for sure. 

My favorite part of this is whole scenario is this board hated Sam because of his messy mechanics, terrible decisions, terrible footwork, too many yolo balls, pure sandlot QB and yo he sucks, get him off my team!

And then this board is drooling over the same dude, smaller framed, with more pop in the arm, literally doing all the same sh*t you hate Sam for, lol, okay....

I think the hardest transition is that OL.  There are times where the entire receiving core gets to their route stem and there isn't anyone CLOSE to Wilson.  He could sit there all day if he wanted to. 

[JustInFudge]

Just now, win4ever said:

I think the hardest transition is that OL.  There are times where the entire receiving core gets to their route stem and there isn't anyone CLOSE to Wilson.  He could sit there all day if he wanted to. 

Yeah for sure, there is a play out there of him literally sitting in the pocket and after everyone finishes their route, he's pointing to a guy running a post into double coverage to break route and head to the pylon, in the cleanest pocket you've ever seen...it's a highlight play.  It will never happen in the NFL. 

[win4ever]

5 hours ago, QB1 said:

Example 1)

Wilson identifies single coverage and is waiting for the play to develop, its the perfect read and the play that you would hope your QB can make, he trips over the OL so he can't make the play. 

 

Example 2)

 

Again, identifies a 1 on 1 matchup and is hoping to exploit it. Decides the play isn't there and throws it away. A QB is supposed to identify 1 on 1 matchups and take advantage of them. Very rarely is a QB saying "is he open" deep, rather hes saying "is he singled up". In the NFL single coverage = open. This is a good play 

 

Example 3)

He doesn't see the wide open guy in the middle. It's a trick play which makes a full field read more chaotic and difficult.

 

Example 4)

Again, identifies a wide ass open 1 on 1 matchup and makes the throw. That is 100% the right play in that situation.

 

Example 5) 

 

Totally disagree with the assessment. To me its pretty damn clear that his first read is the deep receiver, he correctly sees that he is double covered, then is still able to identify the open man in a 1 on 1 matchup after a scramble. To me this is an AWESOME play. 

 

Example 6)

 

Again, identifies 1 on 1 matchup and exploits it with a perfect throw. This is what quarterback should do. 

 

Example 7)
 

Bad read dangerous throw. 

 

To me this analysis lacks a basic understanding of how a quarterback plays the game. These clips show Wilson's ability to read the defense pre snap and identify mismatches/1 on 1 solo opportunities. In the NFL if you have single coverage on a deep route you need to go to it 100/100 times. This is what Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have made a living doing. 

So you are saying, staring down one on one options is the right thing to do? 100/100? 

I'm working now, so don't have much time, but this is just from Geno's first 10 games or so.  

100/100?  

Look, I understand if you want to defend Wilson but back it up.  The real deep route obsession can be shown with Petty or Darnold too.  Yeah, Mahomes/Rodgers can get away with it at times because they are that good at the NFL level.  Unless we are now anointing Wilson as Mahomes/Rodgers level as fact, it's a concern.  They are also able to read defenses at a much higher level than Wilson, step up in the pocket with defenders around them consistently as well.  

But are you really arguing that staring down one on one option is the 100/100 call?  If you are, more power to you, just wanted to clarify.  

[kdels62]

50 minutes ago, JiF said:

Oh we knew, I think the interesting part is once again, nobody wants to even give credence to the fact he pointed out stuff he liked too ie; throws you cant teach and verifies elite level arm talent and accuracy...but again, this is personal so no no no bad bad about Zachapono. 

 

It’s the framing of what was posted. I don’t think the analysis is wrong but it started off with clear intent to prove something negative about Wilson. That’s a bad way to start analysis.  Win4ever is a great, informed poster and people discrediting his opinion are basically exposing themselves as idiots. 

I’m not sure why you’re downvoting my posts and giving me grief. I’m just having fun with the ridiculous divide between Wilson fans and Wilson doubters. 

[win4ever]

5 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

@win4ever - Between the breakdowns, facts, and staying away from the internet BS - anytime you start a thread I know I'm in for a treat. And that includes even when I disagreed with the Gase breakdowns the month that he was hired ?.

Thanks again!

Lol, thanks.  That's why I'm doing this now and not after the draft.  Because once it happens, my fandom gets in the way, and slowly I start blocking out the bad like Stockholm Syndrome.  I see the positive and then slowly believe it because I just so badly want it to work.  At one point, I did a whole breakdown on Hackenberg where I focused on his mechanics stating that if he could correct it, his accuracy issues would improve.  He never corrected it, but it was a hope I held on for some time lol.  

5 hours ago, JiF said:

@win4ever  thanks again for putting the time into to do this, I truly appreciate your analysis and breakdowns, always have, this was well thought out, very detailed, I love all the different elements you inspected. We knew you were going to heat for going against stream but this was really well done, very well thought out and those of us looking for good content, appreciate this effort, we know you got a sh*t ton going on but did this in large part because many of us asked for it.

Thanks! 

Thanks, I appreciate it.  Yeah, I know it's not going to be popular because the hype is just way too high right now.  I'd love to see how things turn out, and really hope we pick the right person.  I don't care if I'm completely wrong, I hope Wilson is a HOF level QB if we pick him.  

Hopefully I get some time to do a few more of these before the draft.  Have about 4 more that are done, that I'll probably post tonight.  After that, need to start writing more.  I want to get to his 2019 games, and see how he does against decent competition.  

[QB1]

13 minutes ago, win4ever said:

So you are saying, staring down one on one options is the right thing to do? 100/100? 

I'm working now, so don't have much time, but this is just from Geno's first 10 games or so.  

100/100?  

Look, I understand if you want to defend Wilson but back it up.  The real deep route obsession can be shown with Petty or Darnold too.  Yeah, Mahomes/Rodgers can get away with it at times because they are that good at the NFL level.  Unless we are now anointing Wilson as Mahomes/Rodgers level as fact, it's a concern.  They are also able to read defenses at a much higher level than Wilson, step up in the pocket with defenders around them consistently as well.  

But are you really arguing that staring down one on one option is the 100/100 call?  If you are, more power to you, just wanted to clarify.  

Not sure what your point is with those examples, half of them have safety help and the other half are terrible throws 

[win4ever]

5 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

It’s become a complete cluster f**k when someone tries to bring up the fact that Wilson has faults and isn’t this supreme Patrick Mahomes clone.  I’m almost at the point where I hope this kid is a major bust.  

Yeah, I don't know how the hype became this strong.  It started out like "Hey, I know Lawrence and Fields as top guys" but check out this Wilson kid to like "Screw Lawrence and Fields", every team disappointed they can't get to Wilson.  

2 hours ago, CTM said:

WHere is level of competition on here?

The X axis on the graph, rates supporting cast in line with competition.  For example, Alabama's supporting cast would blow the lid of anyone else, but it's compared to the defenses they faced in the SEC.  So the further right on the chart, the better cast you had to your competition.  The further left you go, the worse your cast vs. competition.  The further up you go, the better you did, and the further down you go, the worse you did.  

Fields' production is more impressive because his production was very high, while not having the advantages that Jones/Wilson did.  It's impacted by facing Clemson/Alabama as well, which pulls him back towards neutral.  

The other one that stood out to me was Howell.  

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

It’s the framing of what was posted. I don’t think the analysis is wrong but it started off with clear intent to prove something negative about Wilson. That’s a bad way to start analysis.  Win4ever is a great, informed poster and people discrediting his opinion are basically exposing themselves as idiots. 

I’m not sure why you’re downvoting my posts and giving me grief. I’m just having fun with the ridiculous divide between Wilson fans and Wilson doubters. 

Yeah but I think you of all posters should know that it was in response to some of us saying hold up, we see something different while looking at all these guys...and confused by how this dude all of a sudden is QB1.  It's not like you havent been around to see us asking him to do this because we appreciate his work. 

Seemed like you were taking a shot at me without quoting me.

[win4ever]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

I think fans get hung up in the "experts" opinions, despite the overwhelming evidence of how often they're wrong.  And then when that opinion fits their narrative, they just take it to the extreme and dont let go ie; Fields slow processor vs Watson MPH.  You even admitted to falling victim of the MPH sh*t.  It's understandable and obviously Sims (along with others) stance on Wilson is feeding the extreme reactions.  As he did last the year he said "Mahomes was the most intriguing" and rated Trubisky QB1.  He said in an interview this year, after making the Wilson QB1 take, that gun to head he'd take Lawrence #1 overall if he was a GM.  All that said, I get it and have been guilty too.

In 18, I bought into Rosen being the "processor" and bought into Darnold being the "special" talent even though I was the guy fighting the crowd who wanted to pass on QB's in 17 for the 18 class.  I hate/d Mayfield but even him, found myself in a spot where I could accept the pick.  Then we landed Sam and the off schedule stuff is ridiculous, so I just hoped he could develop and obviously wanted it as a fan, I overlooked all the obvious flaws with his fundamentals.  Well, now I'm really scared we're about to do it again.  There are so many similarities it's crazy.  Yes, Wilson's arm talent and accuracy is better, for sure but all the other stuff...whoa...terrifying but guess what, I'll probably convince myself on him too because I desperately want to be wrong.  lol

 

Yeah, I really wanted to dispel the Fields slow processor one because you can clearly see plays where it's an option route, and the subsequent routes rely on that option route to dictate their own option route.  I'll do it if we pick him, but can't afford to do it if we don't.  

Yeah, I fell victim to the MPH one because it made me wonder if it was like a situation where he couldn't make NFL throws.  Yeah, the whole media does it, hype up a bunch of guys with "In this right situation, or if someone can develop him correctly.....watch out" takes.  If the guy doesn't develop, well not the right situation, not the right coaching.  If they do, oh boy, I knew the moment I saw his tape. 

Last year, I remember being perplexed Jake Fromm had all these people saying he was a cerebral QB.  Watched his film and he was quite possibly one of the worst QBs at a major program.  Elite OL, elite running game, good receivers and he looked like 2011 Sanchez out there.  

I ended up listening to the Simms scouting on Wilson (because I was looking for hope lol) and he disregards the competition and then focuses more on the wow throws.  It kind of reminds me of Jordan Love the year before he came out.  Had about 3 or 4 WOW throws a game, where you just go "Damn, maybeee 5 or 6 NFL guys can make that throw".  For him, he played one more year after that, and people noticed the downside as well.  

It's one of the reasons why I like a bunch of these film review channels because they at least back up their opinion with what they see on film.  I completely bought into Rosen's "NFL processor" skills and then backed off because it just seemed off.  

Yeah, it's hard not to get suckered in once your team has that player because there is just inner optimism.  I've found myself holding onto glimmers of hope for Geno/Hackenberg/Petty/Darnold and you know what, I could probably talk myself into some crazy Rudy situation for James Morgan too.   That's why I'm getting all of this out now, because after we pick him, I'll probably repeat the Simms report while I try to sleep at night and believe lol. 

2 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

I made sure to check yours even if you didn’t check mine. Good work as usual. Our opinions differ by a wide margin, but I definitely made sure I came to read your work anyway.

Thanks, it actually doesn't have anything to do with you.  I'm just avoiding the main board because it gets toxic.  Probably the biggest reason why it wasn't published at JN as well, because it gets posted there and then there is such negativity that it wasn't worth it,  That's why I put it here.  I'm sorry if it came off as me disparaging your work, I didn't meant to do so, it's just me avoiding the main board with my dislike of Wilson.  

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Who knew that a film study based around the premise of “proving that Zach Wilson is bad” would have backlash about being biased. I appreciate the effort put forth tho and being able to see different views and all-22 tape has value. 

I read the other response later, but part of it is my fault.  It actually deals with the way I wrote it, so some of the negative aspects came first.  

So I got a bunch of film on him, so I ended up watching them back to back as much as possible.  And for each play of note, I put them into different categories, like bad read good throw, or improvisation, stare down, etc.  So with the categories, I timestamped them vs whomever.

When I went to write, I looked at the categories first, and then the timestamps.  So I happened to write stare down first, improvisation second and whatnot in that order.  Unfortunately, because I suck at writing, the flow of my writing piggybacks of the previous article, so I'll reference the floating in the pocket that I harp on in the previous article, etc,  So when I was done with the first 10, got into a tough spot because the positives one was written in the middle, but I reference the previous ones I wrote within the article.  Thus if I put that out first, part of what I'm referencing would be lost because the other articles technically come after for someone reading it, but before for me writing it.  So I just published it in the order that I wrote it.  But this isn't complete yet, there's more coming.  At least 4 more are done, and I'll write at least 3 more maybe this weekend, with a final scouting report.  The biggest one (I think it has 19 or 20 examples) is his elite level throws one (albeit I might break that into 3 separate posts because I'm not sure if the cheapest server could handle it) so I do delve into the positives.  The other two are good and bad (like good read/bad throw vice versa) and then interceptions/close encounters one which is negative.  

But yeah, part of it is my fault, it's just the way I wrote it, and then it was too late to format it back because I'd need to change too many paragraphs.  The positive one is coming.  

[kdels62]

7 minutes ago, win4ever said:

Yeah, I really wanted to dispel the Fields slow processor one because you can clearly see plays where it's an option route, and the subsequent routes rely on that option route to dictate their own option route.  I'll do it if we pick him, but can't afford to do it if we don't.  

Yeah, I fell victim to the MPH one because it made me wonder if it was like a situation where he couldn't make NFL throws.  Yeah, the whole media does it, hype up a bunch of guys with "In this right situation, or if someone can develop him correctly.....watch out" takes.  If the guy doesn't develop, well not the right situation, not the right coaching.  If they do, oh boy, I knew the moment I saw his tape. 

Last year, I remember being perplexed Jake Fromm had all these people saying he was a cerebral QB.  Watched his film and he was quite possibly one of the worst QBs at a major program.  Elite OL, elite running game, good receivers and he looked like 2011 Sanchez out there.  

I ended up listening to the Simms scouting on Wilson (because I was looking for hope lol) and he disregards the competition and then focuses more on the wow throws.  It kind of reminds me of Jordan Love the year before he came out.  Had about 3 or 4 WOW throws a game, where you just go "Damn, maybeee 5 or 6 NFL guys can make that throw".  For him, he played one more year after that, and people noticed the downside as well.  

It's one of the reasons why I like a bunch of these film review channels because they at least back up their opinion with what they see on film.  I completely bought into Rosen's "NFL processor" skills and then backed off because it just seemed off.  

Yeah, it's hard not to get suckered in once your team has that player because there is just inner optimism.  I've found myself holding onto glimmers of hope for Geno/Hackenberg/Petty/Darnold and you know what, I could probably talk myself into some crazy Rudy situation for James Morgan too.   That's why I'm getting all of this out now, because after we pick him, I'll probably repeat the Simms report while I try to sleep at night and believe lol. 

Thanks, it actually doesn't have anything to do with you.  I'm just avoiding the main board because it gets toxic.  Probably the biggest reason why it wasn't published at JN as well, because it gets posted there and then there is such negativity that it wasn't worth it,  That's why I put it here.  I'm sorry if it came off as me disparaging your work, I didn't meant to do so, it's just me avoiding the main board with my dislike of Wilson.  

I read the other response later, but part of it is my fault.  It actually deals with the way I wrote it, so some of the negative aspects came first.  

So I got a bunch of film on him, so I ended up watching them back to back as much as possible.  And for each play of note, I put them into different categories, like bad read good throw, or improvisation, stare down, etc.  So with the categories, I timestamped them vs whomever.

When I went to write, I looked at the categories first, and then the timestamps.  So I happened to write stare down first, improvisation second and whatnot in that order.  Unfortunately, because I suck at writing, the flow of my writing piggybacks of the previous article, so I'll reference the floating in the pocket that I harp on in the previous article, etc,  So when I was done with the first 10, got into a tough spot because the positives one was written in the middle, but I reference the previous ones I wrote within the article.  Thus if I put that out first, part of what I'm referencing would be lost because the other articles technically come after for someone reading it, but before for me writing it.  So I just published it in the order that I wrote it.  But this isn't complete yet, there's more coming.  At least 4 more are done, and I'll write at least 3 more maybe this weekend, with a final scouting report.  The biggest one (I think it has 19 or 20 examples) is his elite level throws one (albeit I might break that into 3 separate posts because I'm not sure if the cheapest server could handle it) so I do delve into the positives.  The other two are good and bad (like good read/bad throw vice versa) and then interceptions/close encounters one which is negative.  

But yeah, part of it is my fault, it's just the way I wrote it, and then it was too late to format it back because I'd need to change too many paragraphs.  The positive one is coming.  

Hey man, you don’t have to apologize to me. I like Wilson but I also like analysis. We can nitpick somethings you wrote and that I disagree with but you picked compelling clips and put in a lot of effort. Wilson isn’t perfect, a lot of posters have gone on homer protection  with him already and that’s super frustrating.

On my end, I really like Wilson, I see more from him than I saw from Darnold who I didn’t like as a prospect so I’m happy to be moving on. He misses some reads, he makes some plays harder on himself, but the talent and consistency of performance eye popping.

48 minutes ago, JiF said:

Yeah but I think you of all posters should know that it was in response to some of us saying hold up, we see something different while looking at all these guys...and confused by how this dude all of a sudden is QB1.  It's not like you havent been around to see us asking him to do this because we appreciate his work. 

Seemed like you were taking a shot at me without quoting me.

You gotta chill. I actually hated Darnold and love Wilson. I was making fun of everyone pretending like they knew more than anybody else. If I wanted to target you, I’d quote you. 

I’m glad @win4ever posted this, it helps me find blind spots in my analysis. However, the hype around this was that it’d validate the Anti-Wilson view point, that’s inviting the opposite, majority viewpoint to react. Trust me, I’d rather side with you, Win and Maury than @QB1 but here I am with the worst bedfellows.

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Hey man, you don’t have to apologize to me. I like Wilson but I also like analysis. We can nitpick somethings you wrote and that I disagree with but you picked compelling clips and put in a lot of effort. Wilson isn’t perfect, a lot of posters have gone on homer protection  with him already and that’s super frustrating.

On my end, I really like Wilson, I see more from him than I saw from Darnold who I didn’t like as a prospect so I’m happy to be moving on. He misses some reads, he makes some plays harder on himself, but the talent and consistency of performance eye popping.

You gotta chill. I actually hated Darnold and love Wilson. I was making fun of everyone pretending like they knew more than anybody else. If I wanted to target you, I’d quote you. 

I’m glad @win4ever posted this, it helps me find blind spots in my analysis. However, the hype around this was that it’d validate the Anti-Wilson view point, that’s inviting the opposite, majority viewpoint to react. Trust me, I’d rather side with you, Win and Maury than @QB1 but here I am with the worst bedfellows.

I'm very chill.

[QB1]

No one is a Wilson “homer”. He hasn’t played a down for the jets yet. Forgive us for focusing on what makes him a good prospect vs negative analysis paralysis 

[win4ever]

3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

With Fields there was the Orlovosky thing on work ethic for Fields but he backed off of it.

I have actually been reading the the 49ers boards and some videos on YT by 49ers fans and it is interesting. Some are convinced that we are picking Fields and they are getting Wilson.  Their rationale is that the 49ers would never trade up for Jones. Others though think, despite having worked with RG3, that Shanahan wants a guy that will not look to run but just stay in the pocket and execute the offense. They are in general sort of losing their minds, because it seems none of them want Jones. Simms is 100% insistent it is Jones but he claims to not have inside info. Will be first interesting thing about the draft though they will use the full 20 minutes for the Lawrence and Wilson picks.

In the NFL it seems like a lot of QBs identify the 1 on 1 matchup and then focus on that receiver, and I have seen Wilson be excellent at looking off safeties as well as getting to his 3rd or 4th read really fast. I watched all of his games in order and when you do that I saw so much that was so much faster and improved by the UCF game as opposed the the early games.

Like I said I think they all will be successful, but I have to admit I am uncomfortable with a QB that was not asked to do so many NFL QB type things such as reading defenses, setting protections, audibling. Wilson did all of that. Also when I watch Fields he just seems very spatially unaware and that is a bad trait to have.

I am not saying this but I have seen some analysis of Wilson that sort of concludes that he sort of consistently gets "lucky" on his throws and that he is just throwing up jump balls and counting on lesser CBs to not make a play. I do not see that. Seem like you might.

I learned my lesson to overproject with Darnold, and like I said have been completely been wrong before, but I think it will be quickly become obvious Wilson is the best QB in the draft, though as said before all will be successful.

Have you watched any of the interviews where he breaks down the tape of previous games? He comes across as amazingly detailed and specific in exactly what he was doing on all of his throws. He does like second window slants and I have seen analysis by JT O Sullivan and others suggesting  he was late on those.

 

I think there are concerns about all of them to an extent.  

I don't think Wilson made the progression reads as much as the others though, because I think he played outside of the system more often than not.  I disagree on the setting the protections as well because there are a few examples I point out (or will in one - not sure where I did) where you are going to see the running back move to block, and Wilson is trying to execute a play action to thin air.  

But ALL of them need to work on their progressions, including Lawrence, so there is a chance that Wilson is QB1 here.  I'm saying the chances that Fields ends up better is higher in my eyes, than the chances that Wilson ends up better, but that's completely subjective.  

I don't mean lucky on those throws because there are some damn wow throws, my issue is that I don't think it translates well if he's throwing basic jump balls in college.  To me, it indicates that he's not reading them as being open, he's throwing them with the knowledge that the receiver is just that much better than the defender.  In deep ball situations, I like to pause at the moment of decision and see what Wilson sees (or Fields or Lawrence) and then see what happens.  Is there separation down the field? Or is it essentially a jump ball?  

There's a throw from Darnold to Robby Anderson against Denver in one of the years, where Anderson at the point of decision is actually not past his defender.  But the momentum was on his side much so he could create separation down the field,  With Wilson a lot of times on these deeper throws, he doesn't seem to be reading it as "Well this guy will run open" but rather, I'm going to throw it up there because my guy will catch it better.  Now, that can happen in the NFL if we have a Hopkins/Evans etc, but I don't like that trait in him.  I wish there were more instances where he found guys breaking open because in the NFL those defensive backs (save for Kyle Wilson) will turn around and try to find the ball. 

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Yeah for sure, there is a play out there of him literally sitting in the pocket and after everyone finishes their route, he's pointing to a guy running a post into double coverage to break route and head to the pylon, in the cleanest pocket you've ever seen...it's a highlight play.  It will never happen in the NFL. 

Yeah there are a bunch of them where he's not even bothered.  Could do like an EL Duque windup and no one would touch him.  I actually did break down that play, because I loved the throw positioning, but yeah the OL advantage is ridiculous. 

1 hour ago, QB1 said:

Not sure what your point is with those examples, half of them have safety help and the other half are terrible throws 

Kinda my point, if you stare down guys on deep routes from the start, the safety gets in on the play, much more than Northern Alabama.  Or that interception on the back shoulder that gets intercepted for Geno, that's staring down a 1 on 1 and the CB just turned around.  

You said staring down 1 on 1 was 100/100 NFL protocol, and I wanted to show the side effects. 

23 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Hey man, you don’t have to apologize to me. I like Wilson but I also like analysis. We can nitpick somethings you wrote and that I disagree with but you picked compelling clips and put in a lot of effort. Wilson isn’t perfect, a lot of posters have gone on homer protection  with him already and that’s super frustrating.

On my end, I really like Wilson, I see more from him than I saw from Darnold who I didn’t like as a prospect so I’m happy to be moving on. He misses some reads, he makes some plays harder on himself, but the talent and consistency of performance eye popping.

You gotta chill. I actually hated Darnold and love Wilson. I was making fun of everyone pretending like they knew more than anybody else. If I wanted to target you, I’d quote you. 

I’m glad @win4ever posted this, it helps me find blind spots in my analysis. However, the hype around this was that it’d validate the Anti-Wilson view point, that’s inviting the opposite, majority viewpoint to react. Trust me, I’d rather side with you, Win and Maury than @QB1 but here I am with the worst bedfellows.

Yeah, there's some clips coming where I say, that throw is QB1 throw.  Fields, Lawrence nor anyone else is beating that throw, because Wilson does have WOW throws on tape, more than the others.  If one pure arm talent, I pick him as 1, which is basically my hope if we do pick him, that the coaching staff instills just a completely new mentality into him.   

I agree to an extent.  He shows more arm potential than Darnold, because Sam didn't have this many throws where you instinctively went back to the tape to watch again.  However, that mental processing (and eventually Darnold's downfall in the NFL) is worrisome because he's not reading through his progressions, which is very worrisome.  To me, he's a physical scouting pick, where you pick him for his physical skills (much like Lance, much like Allen before him, but also like Jordan Love, also Paxton Lynch) where you think the mental aspect will catch up to the physical skills.  If it does, then you have franchise QB.  My theory is that if we are going on physical scouting, I think the much safer bet without sacrificing much in terms of ceiling is Fields.  It's just risk mitigation because we can take out competition and one year wonder out as concerns.  

It's not done yet because I think there are about 8 more articles really before I could write the final scouting report.  I just need to find time because I'm super busy with work at times that I don't have much time I can plan on.  Like today, I'm posting here because a client had to cancel at the last minute because the house they wanted went under contract this morning, so there was no point in checking it out.  

19 minutes ago, JiF said:

I'm very chill.

I wanted to add something, but I forgot in one of the responses because you mentioned Tribusky.  One of the biggest knocks against him at the time was "Why did he sit behind some loser for 2 years if he was a top 2 pick" because he was the backup to some guy I don't remember.  Well, Wilson was in a QB competition for the job at BYU, which raises similar concerns.  If he was thought of so highly, why did he have to compete for a job?  I even heard some speak about how competing for the job pissed him off and made him really work harder or something. 

Edit:  Forgot to respond to the half I was quoting. 

[kdels62]

2 minutes ago, win4ever said:

 

 

 

Yeah, there's some clips coming where I say, that throw is QB1 throw.  Fields, Lawrence nor anyone else is beating that throw, because Wilson does have WOW throws on tape, more than the others.  If one pure arm talent, I pick him as 1, which is basically my hope if we do pick him, that the coaching staff instills just a completely new mentality into him.   

I agree to an extent.  He shows more arm potential than Darnold, because Sam didn't have this many throws where you instinctively went back to the tape to watch again.  However, that mental processing (and eventually Darnold's downfall in the NFL) is worrisome because he's not reading through his progressions, which is very worrisome.  To me, he's a physical scouting pick, where you pick him for his physical skills (much like Lance, much like Allen before him, but also like Jordan Love, also Paxton Lynch) where you think the mental aspect will catch up to the physical skills.  If it does, then you have franchise QB.  My theory is that if we are going on physical scouting, I think the much safer bet without sacrificing much in terms of ceiling is Fields.  It's just risk mitigation because we can take out competition and one year wonder out as concerns.  

It's not done yet because I think there are about 8 more articles really before I could write the final scouting report.  I just need to find time because I'm super busy with work at times that I don't have much time I can plan on.  Like today, I'm posting here because a client had to cancel at the last minute because the house they wanted went under contract this morning, so there was no point in checking it out.  

I wanted to add something, but I forgot in one of the responses because you mentioned Tribusky.  One of the biggest knocks against him at the time was "Why did he sit behind some loser for 2 years if he was a top 2 pick" because he was the backup to some guy I don't remember.  Well, Wilson was in a QB competition for the job at BYU, which raises similar concerns.  If he was thought of so highly, why did he have to compete for a job?  I even heard some speak about how competing for the job pissed him off and made him really work harder or something.  

The Trubisky point rings hollow. Wilson took over the job as a freshman, he was the first true freshman to start for BYU in like 20 years or something (I might’ve made that up) and he was good. He had a bad sophomore season for whatever reason and he ended that season with his worst game (if you can find it, watch the 2019 BYU vs Hawaii Bowl Game,he looks undraftable). Boosters and coaches had to have doubts after that season and gifting him the job would’ve been questionable. He won the job and regained the form of that freshman. Imagine he’d sat behind a 5th round pick and transferred schools?

[win4ever]

2 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

The Trubisky point rings hollow. Wilson took over the job as a freshman, he was the first true freshman to start for BYU in like 20 years or something (I might’ve made that up) and he was good. He had a bad sophomore season for whatever reason and he ended that season with his worst game (if you can find it, watch the 2019 BYU vs Hawaii Bowl Game,he looks undraftable). Boosters and coaches had to have doubts after that season and gifting him the job would’ve been questionable. He won the job and regained the form of that freshman. Imagine he’d sat behind a 5th round pick and transferred schools?

Fields sat as a freshman for a coach that picked the 3rd worst QB on the roster as the starter, and never had his job in doubt after he was the starter in OSU.  

Wilson looks bad in a few games, and it's going to do a lot more with his mental processing than with his injuries.  I really wish they played a normal schedule this year.  

Anyway, I'll try to post the 2019 ones maybe next week or the week after if I get a chance.  Until then, the scouting is incomplete in terms of posting here.  

Wish I had some trust fund so I could focus on this lol.  

[QB1]

33 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I think there are concerns about all of them to an extent.  

I don't think Wilson made the progression reads as much as the others though, because I think he played outside of the system more often than not.  I disagree on the setting the protections as well because there are a few examples I point out (or will in one - not sure where I did) where you are going to see the running back move to block, and Wilson is trying to execute a play action to thin air.  

But ALL of them need to work on their progressions, including Lawrence, so there is a chance that Wilson is QB1 here.  I'm saying the chances that Fields ends up better is higher in my eyes, than the chances that Wilson ends up better, but that's completely subjective.  

I don't mean lucky on those throws because there are some damn wow throws, my issue is that I don't think it translates well if he's throwing basic jump balls in college.  To me, it indicates that he's not reading them as being open, he's throwing them with the knowledge that the receiver is just that much better than the defender.  In deep ball situations, I like to pause at the moment of decision and see what Wilson sees (or Fields or Lawrence) and then see what happens.  Is there separation down the field? Or is it essentially a jump ball?  

There's a throw from Darnold to Robby Anderson against Denver in one of the years, where Anderson at the point of decision is actually not past his defender.  But the momentum was on his side much so he could create separation down the field,  With Wilson a lot of times on these deeper throws, he doesn't seem to be reading it as "Well this guy will run open" but rather, I'm going to throw it up there because my guy will catch it better.  Now, that can happen in the NFL if we have a Hopkins/Evans etc, but I don't like that trait in him.  I wish there were more instances where he found guys breaking open because in the NFL those defensive backs (save for Kyle Wilson) will turn around and try to find the ball. 

Yeah there are a bunch of them where he's not even bothered.  Could do like an EL Duque windup and no one would touch him.  I actually did break down that play, because I loved the throw positioning, but yeah the OL advantage is ridiculous. 

Kinda my point, if you stare down guys on deep routes from the start, the safety gets in on the play, much more than Northern Alabama.  Or that interception on the back shoulder that gets intercepted for Geno, that's staring down a 1 on 1 and the CB just turned around.  

You said staring down 1 on 1 was 100/100 NFL protocol, and I wanted to show the side effects. 

Yeah, there's some clips coming where I say, that throw is QB1 throw.  Fields, Lawrence nor anyone else is beating that throw, because Wilson does have WOW throws on tape, more than the others.  If one pure arm talent, I pick him as 1, which is basically my hope if we do pick him, that the coaching staff instills just a completely new mentality into him.   

I agree to an extent.  He shows more arm potential than Darnold, because Sam didn't have this many throws where you instinctively went back to the tape to watch again.  However, that mental processing (and eventually Darnold's downfall in the NFL) is worrisome because he's not reading through his progressions, which is very worrisome.  To me, he's a physical scouting pick, where you pick him for his physical skills (much like Lance, much like Allen before him, but also like Jordan Love, also Paxton Lynch) where you think the mental aspect will catch up to the physical skills.  If it does, then you have franchise QB.  My theory is that if we are going on physical scouting, I think the much safer bet without sacrificing much in terms of ceiling is Fields.  It's just risk mitigation because we can take out competition and one year wonder out as concerns.  

It's not done yet because I think there are about 8 more articles really before I could write the final scouting report.  I just need to find time because I'm super busy with work at times that I don't have much time I can plan on.  Like today, I'm posting here because a client had to cancel at the last minute because the house they wanted went under contract this morning, so there was no point in checking it out.  

I wanted to add something, but I forgot in one of the responses because you mentioned Tribusky.  One of the biggest knocks against him at the time was "Why did he sit behind some loser for 2 years if he was a top 2 pick" because he was the backup to some guy I don't remember.  Well, Wilson was in a QB competition for the job at BYU, which raises similar concerns.  If he was thought of so highly, why did he have to compete for a job?  I even heard some speak about how competing for the job pissed him off and made him really work harder or something. 

Edit:  Forgot to respond to the half I was quoting. 

Staring down a receiver when there is a safety is bad, however in every example that you provided for Wilson there was no safety help

[kdels62]

7 minutes ago, win4ever said:

Fields sat as a freshman for a coach that picked the 3rd worst QB on the roster as the starter, and never had his job in doubt after he was the starter in OSU.  

Wilson looks bad in a few games, and it's going to do a lot more with his mental processing than with his injuries.  I really wish they played a normal schedule this year.  

Anyway, I'll try to post the 2019 ones maybe next week or the week after if I get a chance.  Until then, the scouting is incomplete in terms of posting here.  

Wish I had some trust fund so I could focus on this lol.  

Hey man, I think we’d do a better job than a lot teams. My point is that there’s no point in evaluating what coaches and decision makers are thinking especially when the end result is what Wilson and Fields have become. 

I put stock into Wilson’s improvement because it’s not like he sucked against good opponents in 2019, he struggled a lot regardless of opponent. We could argue the importance of off season programs for a rehabbing 19 year old but we can’t really know what happened. 

Wilson’s improvement against San Diego State is worth discussing.

[win4ever]

5 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Staring down a receiver when there is a safety is bad, however in every example that you provided for Wilson there was no safety help

Example 5 has safety help.  Example 1 he's actually staring down the safety defending.  

How is Example 4 different than Geno Smith interception 3?  

[QB1]

1 minute ago, win4ever said:

Example 5 has safety help.  Example 1 he's actually staring down the safety defending.  

How is Example 4 different than Geno Smith interception 3?  

Yes and he gets off the read to make a special throw to the open guy underneath. I agreed with you on 7

[win4ever]

4 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Hey man, I think we’d do a better job than a lot teams. My point is that there’s no point in evaluating what coaches and decision makers are thinking especially when the end result is what Wilson and Fields have become. 

I put stock into Wilson’s improvement because it’s not like he sucked against good opponents in 2019, he struggled a lot regardless of opponent. We could argue the importance of off season programs for a rehabbing 19 year old but we can’t really know what happened. 

Wilson’s improvement against San Diego State is worth discussing.

He beat up on Massachusetts basically.  He struggled against good opponents.  I'll post something about Utah, Tennessee, USC and San Diego State if I get a chance.  I really wanted Washington but couldn't get film.  If he improved vs San Diego state I'll point it out.  

[win4ever]

6 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Yes and he gets off the read to make a special throw to the open guy underneath. I agreed with you on 7

On 4?

[QB1]

3 minutes ago, win4ever said:

On 4?

No safety within 20 yards?

[win4ever]

5 hours ago, QB1 said:

No safety within 20 yards?

The back shoulder pass that gets knocked down?

[QB1]

2 minutes ago, win4ever said:

The back shoulder pass that gets knocked down?

Huh? That was a stone cold drop by the WR, what do you mean?

[win4ever]

3 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Huh? That was a stone cold drop by the WR, what do you mean?

I'm not asking about the play (when you mentioned the safety, I got confused), I'm asking what is the difference between that play and interception 3 from Geno?