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First, congratulations to JD.  He is an exec of courage and deserves our praise.  Whether he has been wise remains to be seen.

He is obviously skilled as a trader.  A 2020 6th rounder and 2021 2nd and 4th round picks seems a very solid return for Darnold.

But I think he has a 1 in 3-4 chance of coming out of this looking good.  Here are some scenarios to illustrate my point.

Case 1.  Wilson comes in and tears up the League.  Darnold is a bust or marginally better.  Clear win for JD and he starts working on his GM HOF speech.  Deservedly so.

Case 2.  Both Wilson and Darnold excel.  In this case, NYC still loves JD.  But NFL junkies will note that the essence of the deal is the Jets traded the #2 overall pick for a 2020 6th round pick and 2021 2nd and 4th round picks.  Jets also get about $25M in cap space over next 5 years due to Wilson being on his rookie deal.  A draw at best.

Case 3.  Neither Wilson nor Darnold excel.  Bad news for JD.  He gave away the value of the trade down for Wilson and got nothing but fan hatred in return.  A smart owner would fire him outright as soon as it becomes obvious.  It is unclear what the Jets would do.

Case 4.  Wilson is a bust and Darnold salvages his career to become a competent NFL starter.  JD is forced into hiding while gangs of Jets Nation posters show up outside his house with torches and pitchforks.  Jets owners still not clear what to do other than avoiding JD in public.

If you just take the 4 possibilities, it looks to be a 50/50 split.  But if you look at the success rate of the QB’s selected in the first 10 slots of the draft, it is not heartening.

1.      Cam Newton                     1             2011      QBR 47

2.      Andrew Luck                      1             2012      Retired

3.      Jameis Winston                 1             2015      QBR 15.6-NO backup

4.      J Goff                                  1             2016      QBR 58.6-Traded to Detroit

5.      B Mayfield                          1             2018      QBR 71.2

6.      K Murray                             1             2019      QBR 69.1

7.      Joe Burrows                       1             2020      QBR 56

8.      R Griffin III                         2             2012      QBR 25.6-Baltimore backup

9.      M Mariota                          2             2015      QBR 98.1-Las Vegas pay cut on new contract

10.   C Wentz                              2             2016      QBR 49.4-traded to Indianapolis

11.   Trubiskey                            2             2017      QBR 49.5

12.   Blake Bortles                     3             2014      retired

13.   Sam Darnold                      3             2018      QBR 42.2

14.   Tua Tagovailoa                 5             2020      QBR 63.5

15.   Daniel Jones                      6             2019      QBR 63.3

16.   J Herbert                             6             2020      QBR 68.1

17.   Josh Allen                           7             2018      QBR 81.6

18.   J Locker                              8             2011      retired

19.   R Tannehill                         8             2012      QBR 78.3-traded to Tenn

20.   B Gabbert                           10           2011      QBR 43.2-on a 1 year contract

21.   P Mahomes                        10           2017      QBR 82.7

22.   J Rosen                               10           2018      retired

Obviously, there are some guys we are hoping Zack Wilson (presumably) will be like.  I come up with 4-5 and a couple of too soon to judged.  But there are enough dogs in this group to serenade a full moon.  Or more to the case, they can be added to the rioters with the pitchforks and torches.

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

 

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Idk what joewilly is yappin about but I dont agree with the scenarios.

It doesnt matter if darnold get good and/or wilson blows. JD did what had to be done and what ANY gm would have to do: send the last ranked starting qb packing AND taking the highest rated qb available.

Cant kill him for this move no matter what.

Now if that happens AND his other deaft pics are flops AND the coaching is crappy then yea hes toast

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1 minute ago, ncjetman said:

unnecessary response - actually an interesting perspective- you don’t have to agree but rude? why?


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Not meant to be rude at all we have been discussing JD, the Sam Darnold trade since it happened  yesterday here. 

Lighten up. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ncjetman said:

unnecessary response - actually an interesting perspective- you don’t have to agree but rude? why?

Don't pay him any mind.  Someone is grumpy.  They served warm oatmeal and berries at The Villages again.  

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Don't pay him any mind.  Someone is grumpy.  They served warm oatmeal and berries at The Villages again.  

Yes that's it and you are live from your parents basement. 

You are so smart no one else needs to say anything we can all sit back and read what you post and nod our heads. 

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2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The success of Joe Douglas and thus the Jets is not based on QB.  It will be based on him building a good team and then QB.

So if he builds a good roster but drafts a bad QB he shouldn't be held responsible for that?

Or is it impossible for a QB to be bad if his roster is good?

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Just now, joewilly12 said:

Yes that's it and you are live from your parents basement. 

You are so smart no one else needs to say anything we can all sit back and read what you post and nod our heads. 

They're called my roommates, Joe.  My roommates.  

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The opening post is crazy good, not because I was opposed to moving Sam--I trusted whatever way JD came down in making the decision--- but because (1) Wilson does have to outplay Sam by more than a marginal amount--though not necessarily ZW being a star and SD a dud-- to make JD's choice a winner and (2) the statement of the four outcomes, featuring prominently the considerations given and received, is awesome and comprehensive. The past-is-prologue listing of QBs is not vey relevant, but who cares in view of the overall analysis.

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14 minutes ago, addage said:

But if you look at the success rate of the QB’s selected in the first 10 slots of the draft, it is not heartening.

 

Past history is not predictive of future outcomes.

It's a lazy narrative.

Quite frankly, I'm tired of it.

 

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Case 2 is certainly not a draw. If Zach performs well, you can't discount the $25M in savings and pushing the time to resign him 4 years into the future. Any scenario where Zach Wilson performs well will be a major win for JD, regardless of what Sam does in CAR. 

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7 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Past history is not predictive of future outcomes.

It's a lazy narrative.

Quite frankly, I'm tired of it.

 

And besides, there's a bunch of QB's on that list I'd be happy to have.  Mahomes, Herbert, Murray, Burrow, Josh Allen for starters. 

Luck's career got destroyed by injuries but would any of us have turned down the 3 straight 11-5 seasons he put up to begin his career, including a 40-TD season, 3 Pro Bowls and 3 playoff wins?

Cam Newton was one of the game's most exciting players in his prime, took home MVP honors and went to a Super Bowl.   Goff has been to a Super Bowl too.

Tannehill has had a very nice career, albeit as basically a rich man's game manager. 

I hate Baker Mayfield's stupid face but 2 of his 3 seasons n the pros have been impressive.  Winston has been meh overall but also had a 5,000+ yard season with 33 TD's.  At least he puts points on the board along with all his INT's.  Trubisky is hated by Bears fans because he's not Mahomes or Watson, and rightfully so, but I see him as a future Tannehill.  

I look at that list as an encouraging one, not a reason to avoid taking a QB high.  

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28 minutes ago, addage said:

22.   J Rosen                               10           2018      retired

       

 

 

One quibble:  Josh Rosen isn't retired (yet) although it may seem that way, lol.  He's under contract with the 49ers.

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23 minutes ago, addage said:

First, congratulations to JD.  He is an exec of courage and deserves our praise.  Whether he has been wise remains to be seen.

He is obviously skilled as a trader.  A 2020 6th rounder and 2021 2nd and 4th round picks seems a very solid return for Darnold.

But I think he has a 1 in 3-4 chance of coming out of this looking good.  Here are some scenarios to illustrate my point.

Case 1.  Wilson comes in and tears up the League.  Darnold is a bust or marginally better.  Clear win for JD and he starts working on his GM HOF speech.  Deservedly so.

Case 2.  Both Wilson and Darnold excel.  In this case, NYC still loves JD.  But NFL junkies will note that the essence of the deal is the Jets traded the #2 overall pick for a 2020 6th round pick and 2021 2nd and 4th round picks.  Jets also get about $25M in cap space over next 5 years due to Wilson being on his rookie deal.  A draw at best.

Case 3.  Neither Wilson nor Darnold excel.  Bad news for JD.  He gave away the value of the trade down for Wilson and got nothing but fan hatred in return.  A smart owner would fire him outright as soon as it becomes obvious.  It is unclear what the Jets would do.

Case 4.  Wilson is a bust and Darnold salvages his career to become a competent NFL starter.  JD is forced into hiding while gangs of Jets Nation posters show up outside his house with torches and pitchforks.  Jets owners still not clear what to do other than avoiding JD in public.

If you just take the 4 possibilities, it looks to be a 50/50 split.  But if you look at the success rate of the QB’s selected in the first 10 slots of the draft, it is not heartening.

1.      Cam Newton                     1             2011      QBR 47

2.      Andrew Luck                      1             2012      Retired

3.      Jameis Winston                 1             2015      QBR 15.6-NO backup

4.      J Goff                                  1             2016      QBR 58.6-Traded to Detroit

5.      B Mayfield                          1             2018      QBR 71.2

6.      K Murray                             1             2019      QBR 69.1

7.      Joe Burrows                       1             2020      QBR 56

8.      R Griffin III                         2             2012      QBR 25.6-Baltimore backup

9.      M Mariota                          2             2015      QBR 98.1-Las Vegas pay cut on new contract

10.   C Wentz                              2             2016      QBR 49.4-traded to Indianapolis

11.   Trubiskey                            2             2017      QBR 49.5

12.   Blake Bortles                     3             2014      retired

13.   Sam Darnold                      3             2018      QBR 42.2

14.   Tua Tagovailoa                 5             2020      QBR 63.5

15.   Daniel Jones                      6             2019      QBR 63.3

16.   J Herbert                             6             2020      QBR 68.1

17.   Josh Allen                           7             2018      QBR 81.6

18.   J Locker                              8             2011      retired

19.   R Tannehill                         8             2012      QBR 78.3-traded to Tenn

20.   B Gabbert                           10           2011      QBR 43.2-on a 1 year contract

21.   P Mahomes                        10           2017      QBR 82.7

22.   J Rosen                               10           2018      retired

Obviously, there are some guys we are hoping Zack Wilson (presumably) will be like.  I come up with 4-5 and a couple of too soon to judged.  But there are enough dogs in this group to serenade a full moon.  Or more to the case, they can be added to the rioters with the pitchforks and torches.

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

 

What are you some sort of drama queen? This thread is exaggerated garbage. All Joe Douglas had to do is continue drafting well and he'll NEVER lose his job. People mis s on QB's all the time. NONE of those reactions are even remotely possible.

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5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The success of Joe Douglas and thus the Jets is not based on QB.  It will be based on him building a good team and then QB.

We like to toss around that franchisee Qb thing like crazy as if you get just one player you are set.  Far from it.

As far as the QB thing the only true disaster would be Darnold lighting it up soon and for years to come and Wilson getting hurt or failing.

Pretty much. Out of the gate Philip Rivers was wiping the floor with Eli Manning stats-wise, with AJ Smith racking up the extra draft picks. Won more games once Rivers was named the starter, too. Then the dust settled with the Eli Giants winning 2 SBs over New England, and Rivers retiring with one championship game appearance where he shouldered a huge part of that loss despite the D holding the #1 offense in check as well as anyone did, threw away other playoff games (including against the Jets), and more. One of the better QBs of the last 20 years - an 8x pro bowler who made over 250 consecutive starts, including the playoffs - and it wasn't enough.

It's a QB-driven league, yes. Not a QB-only league. 

Douglas has to do more than hit on a QB. He can end up with the 2nd or 3rd best QB of this draft, and Wilson is worse than Darnold. If he builds a championship team here anyway, we won't care. We may comment negatively on that part of it - some more than others, I'm sure - but in the end a Jets title will trump any individual QB accomplishments. Just ask Philip Rivers...and AJ Smith. 

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He will go as this draft goes.

Wilson is going to be his guy. He has to be at least a quality starter in the NFL. The other 20 picks over these two drafts will have a huge impact on how Wilson performs, on how  soon the Jets compete but it Wilson fails it’s likely Douglas will be out alongside him. He can make every other good/bad move meaningless 

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20 minutes ago, addage said:

First, congratulations to JD.  He is an exec of courage and deserves our praise.  Whether he has been wise remains to be seen.

He is obviously skilled as a trader.  A 2020 6th rounder and 2021 2nd and 4th round picks seems a very solid return for Darnold.

But I think he has a 1 in 3-4 chance of coming out of this looking good.  Here are some scenarios to illustrate my point.

Case 1.  Wilson comes in and tears up the League.  Darnold is a bust or marginally better.  Clear win for JD and he starts working on his GM HOF speech.  Deservedly so.

Case 2.  Both Wilson and Darnold excel.  In this case, NYC still loves JD.  But NFL junkies will note that the essence of the deal is the Jets traded the #2 overall pick for a 2020 6th round pick and 2021 2nd and 4th round picks.  Jets also get about $25M in cap space over next 5 years due to Wilson being on his rookie deal.  A draw at best.

Case 3.  Neither Wilson nor Darnold excel.  Bad news for JD.  He gave away the value of the trade down for Wilson and got nothing but fan hatred in return.  A smart owner would fire him outright as soon as it becomes obvious.  It is unclear what the Jets would do.

Case 4.  Wilson is a bust and Darnold salvages his career to become a competent NFL starter.  JD is forced into hiding while gangs of Jets Nation posters show up outside his house with torches and pitchforks.  Jets owners still not clear what to do other than avoiding JD in public.

If you just take the 4 possibilities, it looks to be a 50/50 split.  But if you look at the success rate of the QB’s selected in the first 10 slots of the draft, it is not heartening.

1.      Cam Newton                     1             2011      QBR 47

2.      Andrew Luck                      1             2012      Retired

3.      Jameis Winston                 1             2015      QBR 15.6-NO backup

4.      J Goff                                  1             2016      QBR 58.6-Traded to Detroit

5.      B Mayfield                          1             2018      QBR 71.2

6.      K Murray                             1             2019      QBR 69.1

7.      Joe Burrows                       1             2020      QBR 56

8.      R Griffin III                         2             2012      QBR 25.6-Baltimore backup

9.      M Mariota                          2             2015      QBR 98.1-Las Vegas pay cut on new contract

10.   C Wentz                              2             2016      QBR 49.4-traded to Indianapolis

11.   Trubiskey                            2             2017      QBR 49.5

12.   Blake Bortles                     3             2014      retired

13.   Sam Darnold                      3             2018      QBR 42.2

14.   Tua Tagovailoa                 5             2020      QBR 63.5

15.   Daniel Jones                      6             2019      QBR 63.3

16.   J Herbert                             6             2020      QBR 68.1

17.   Josh Allen                           7             2018      QBR 81.6

18.   J Locker                              8             2011      retired

19.   R Tannehill                         8             2012      QBR 78.3-traded to Tenn

20.   B Gabbert                           10           2011      QBR 43.2-on a 1 year contract

21.   P Mahomes                        10           2017      QBR 82.7

22.   J Rosen                               10           2018      retired

Obviously, there are some guys we are hoping Zack Wilson (presumably) will be like.  I come up with 4-5 and a couple of too soon to judged.  But there are enough dogs in this group to serenade a full moon.  Or more to the case, they can be added to the rioters with the pitchforks and torches.

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

 

Solid post but some issues, and conclusion IMO is totally wrong.

1. Past results on QBs have no connection in any way to the possible success or failure of Wilson, especially when your data is just empirical. A better way to look at it would be to use QBASE which has proven to have a solid attach rate to predicting QB busts. The QBASE stat is very strong on Wilson with only around a 25% bust potential.

2. Case 2 is NOT a draw it is far far in our favor. First of all, you cannot assume that Darnold would have excelled here. Maybe the coaching and offense in Carolina is a great fit, or the weather is better, or he meets a local girl to be his wife and that creates extra motivation. A thousand little things add up. Second in your scenario the savings is FAR greater than $25 million. If Same performs well Sam will make like$9M, $18M $30M+ $30M+ $30M+ Assume the 5th year option for Zach is franchise tag. Then savings are like -$1M. $8M, $20M, $20M so like $50 million savings but cap savings are players so the Jets have like 3-4 additional plyers for 4 years over if we kept Darnold. And that is huge. PFF actually counts a first rounder for QB as the value of the pick plus 3 to 4 players.

3. 3 is also tilted to Wilson because we have those extra players from cap which is slightly more valuable than draft picks.

4. Who cares? Still right decision by JD

The Jets made not only the right move but the only move at #2. There was like a 95% chance that the Jets would stay at 2 and pick a QB after we finished 2-14 and brought in a new QB

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23 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So if he builds a good roster but drafts a bad QB he shouldn't be held responsible for that?

Or is it impossible for a QB to be bad if his roster is good?

You don;t win either way.

If you build a roster a new Qb has a chance.

the number of young new Qbs that walk into an awful awful team and make them good early is a very very short list.

The game has changed if you do not win quick in this league teams pass on QBs.

Your fav Watson, good Qb bad roster, 4 wins

Guys like Mahommes, russel wilson, etc walk into teams built or at least mostly built and have success.

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Thats why i dont get this move. He coulda fix this team so easily with the fleece of a QB needy team with picks. We are more competitive next year by trading 2 then we are dealing with Wilson and his "rookie year" issues. 

I think JD overplayed his hand here BUT if Wilson does turn out to be Rodgers then all is moot and he is a genius. I just look at the odds and its a long shot based on historical analysis. 

Smart move was trading 2. He took a HUGE Atlantic City type bet here. High risk high reward tho. But if he doesn't hit his color hes driving back to Staten Island in his honda civic rejected. 

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34 minutes ago, St Louie Jet Fan said:

What if the Jags take Wilson?

I'd be pissed and probably pass on TL for one of the other guys. The one game I saw of TL set off a bad vibe. My first thoughts seeing TL was that guy is going to bust hard. One game observation but the football gods provided me with a moment of clarity. I'd go with Lance or Justin.

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

The success of Joe Douglas and thus the Jets is not based on QB.  It will be based on him building a good team and then QB.

We like to toss around that franchisee Qb thing like crazy as if you get just one player you are set.  Far from it.

As far as the QB thing the only true disaster would be Darnold lighting it up soon and for years to come and Wilson getting hurt or failing.

right.  douglas has the set the team up for the next two seasons, draft wise.  saleh/lafleur get this team on the same page and we can all expect better things to come.  and if by chance wilson doesn't pan out there are other ways to get a good qb so right now it's all good.

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2 hours ago, HighPitch said:

Idk what joewilly is yappin about but I dont agree with the scenarios.

It doesnt matter if darnold get good and/or wilson blows. JD did what had to be done and what ANY gm would have to do: send the last ranked starting qb packing AND taking the highest rated qb available.

Cant kill him for this move no matter what.

Now if that happens AND his other deaft pics are flops AND the coaching is crappy then yea hes toast

What???? This is crazy talk!! His job is to make the team better!! It’s not Wilson or Darnold....or Wilson or Darnold and a sh*t ton of picks to build a team. Somehow the colts didnt draft their QB of the future and managed to be competitive!!

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