How did JD do?

[k-met57]

1 hour ago, kevinc855 said:

Thats why i dont get this move. He coulda fix this team so easily with the fleece of a QB needy team with picks. We are more competitive next year by trading 2 then we are dealing with Wilson and his "rookie year" issues. 

I think JD overplayed his hand here BUT if Wilson does turn out to be Rodgers then all is moot and he is a genius. I just look at the odds and its a long shot based on historical analysis. 

Smart move was trading 2. He took a HUGE Atlantic City type bet here. High risk high reward tho. But if he doesn't hit his color hes driving back to Staten Island in his honda civic rejected. 

The truth is that hitting on a big time franchise QB is a decision that can create organizational stability for 10-15 years....i understand taking the shot. That being said, you better believe that Zack Wilson is the second coming of Rodgers or Mahomes to say no to franchise changing draft capital to take him. We shall see.

[CanadienJetsFan]

Analytics, analytics, analytics.

it’s the ruin of all sports.

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, k-met57 said:

What???? This is crazy talk!! His job is to make the team better!! It’s not Wilson or Darnold....or Wilson or Darnold and a sh*t ton of picks to build a team. Somehow the colts didnt draft their QB of the future and managed to be competitive!!

Whats crazy talk?

That jd did what 90% of other gms would have done: get rid of darnold and take a blue chip qb prospect at #2?

OMG your right thats craZY!!

[derp]

I do agree with your premise and find it concerning. Also worrying that if you threw a dart at the quarterbacks drafted 1-5 and another at those drafted 6-10 you’ve got a better shot of hitting a good quarterback 6-10.

The past results aren’t predictive of future outcomes narrative is lazy IMO. This isn’t rolling dice or flipping coins where we know each event is independent. Is it so ridiculous that NFL teams value the wrong traits at the top of the draft, teams that are drafting high or giving up capital to draft high don’t have enough around the QB to help him succeed, or some combination?

We don’t know a QB will be bad because he’s been drafted at 2 or 3 or whatever, but the hit rate is really low, teams didn’t expect those guys to bust, and that has to be a factor. Seems we know situation matters too. I’ll be happier if they commit to benching whoever they draft for a year. Make him learn the offense, work on mechanics, let the line gel, take time to add a couple weapons, then let him get loose year 2.

[More Cowbell]

4 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Not meant to be rude at all we have been discussing JD, the Sam Darnold trade since it happened  yesterday here. 

Lighten up. 

 

 

He should lighten up?

[More Cowbell]

4 hours ago, addage said:

First, congratulations to JD.  He is an exec of courage and deserves our praise.  Whether he has been wise remains to be seen.

He is obviously skilled as a trader.  A 2020 6^th rounder and 2021 2^nd and 4^th round picks seems a very solid return for Darnold.

But I think he has a 1 in 3-4 chance of coming out of this looking good.  Here are some scenarios to illustrate my point.

Case 1.  Wilson comes in and tears up the League.  Darnold is a bust or marginally better.  Clear win for JD and he starts working on his GM HOF speech.  Deservedly so.

Case 2.  Both Wilson and Darnold excel.  In this case, NYC still loves JD.  But NFL junkies will note that the essence of the deal is the Jets traded the #2 overall pick for a 2020 6^th round pick and 2021 2^nd and 4^th round picks.  Jets also get about $25M in cap space over next 5 years due to Wilson being on his rookie deal.  A draw at best.

Case 3.  Neither Wilson nor Darnold excel.  Bad news for JD.  He gave away the value of the trade down for Wilson and got nothing but fan hatred in return.  A smart owner would fire him outright as soon as it becomes obvious.  It is unclear what the Jets would do.

Case 4.  Wilson is a bust and Darnold salvages his career to become a competent NFL starter.  JD is forced into hiding while gangs of Jets Nation posters show up outside his house with torches and pitchforks.  Jets owners still not clear what to do other than avoiding JD in public.

If you just take the 4 possibilities, it looks to be a 50/50 split.  But if you look at the success rate of the QB’s selected in the first 10 slots of the draft, it is not heartening.

1.      Cam Newton                     1             2011      QBR 47

2.      Andrew Luck                      1             2012      Retired

3.      Jameis Winston                 1             2015      QBR 15.6-NO backup

4.      J Goff                                  1             2016      QBR 58.6-Traded to Detroit

5.      B Mayfield                          1             2018      QBR 71.2

6.      K Murray                             1             2019      QBR 69.1

7.      Joe Burrows                       1             2020      QBR 56

8.      R Griffin III                         2             2012      QBR 25.6-Baltimore backup

9.      M Mariota                          2             2015      QBR 98.1-Las Vegas pay cut on new contract

10.   C Wentz                              2             2016      QBR 49.4-traded to Indianapolis

11.   Trubiskey                            2             2017      QBR 49.5

12.   Blake Bortles                     3             2014      retired

13.   Sam Darnold                      3             2018      QBR 42.2

14.   Tua Tagovailoa                 5             2020      QBR 63.5

15.   Daniel Jones                      6             2019      QBR 63.3

16.   J Herbert                             6             2020      QBR 68.1

17.   Josh Allen                           7             2018      QBR 81.6

18.   J Locker                              8             2011      retired

19.   R Tannehill                         8             2012      QBR 78.3-traded to Tenn

20.   B Gabbert                           10           2011      QBR 43.2-on a 1 year contract

21.   P Mahomes                        10           2017      QBR 82.7

22.   J Rosen                               10           2018      retired

Obviously, there are some guys we are hoping Zack Wilson (presumably) will be like.  I come up with 4-5 and a couple of too soon to judged.  But there are enough dogs in this group to serenade a full moon.  Or more to the case, they can be added to the rioters with the pitchforks and torches.

 

I don't think ut matters what Darn9ld does. If the QB we draft is legit, JD is a hero, if not, he will be burned in effigy.  

[k-met57]

8 hours ago, HighPitch said:

Whats crazy talk?

That jd did what 90% of other gms would have done: get rid of darnold and take a blue chip qb prospect at #2?

OMG your right thats craZY!!

Accountability...it’s what’s for dinner.