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JD Needs an OL Upgrade in the Draft, after that he can BAP it the rest of the way


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BAP, its just that simple.

i would hate to force a pick on offense and end up with the next Alex Lewis when 2 picks later the next Richard Sherman went, but we cant pick CB because we must get help for Wilson.

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We're having a lot of conversations about what positions should be picked where, but when I look at it, I think Joe Douglas has himself set up about as well as he could be for the the most impactful d

Would love to see a small move back from 23 and grab Creed in the 26-28 area and best available G at 34.  Might be a reach for a C but I don’t want to risk losing him. 

The OL thing is super complicated. I think if guys are taken at 23/34 you’re actually probably looking at a short-term downgrade for a long-term upgrade. Right now the full line is back from last year

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i'm certainly okay with using the 23 pick for oline as long as the guy will be a starter right out of the gate.  i also think a skill position player(s) can be had at 23 and 35 to help the offense or defense.  they need good players almost everywhere.

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8 hours ago, slats said:

the team will probably most often be in a 4-2-5 formation.

This is exactly right. We have a few players who can help fill he cover LB role in Saleh D. Joyner or Maye comes to mind. 

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7 hours ago, UnknownJetFan said:

Since Jets claimed they liked what they saw of C McGovern in the 2nd half of last seasons, and we have capable backups there, one would think the highest they would spend a pwe're iick on C would be like the 4th round and that player would likely need to have some exp. at G as well.

If the Jets management 'claimed' that they liked the OL last season besides Becton then Wilson is in for a rude awakening.

Fix the OL *THIS*  year and give Wilson a chance. Next season's draft can be used to fill in the premium positions that Idzak and Macc left barren.

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9 hours ago, Jets723 said:

I agree.  I think at 23 and 34 we will go OL and corner depending on who falls where.  Then the rest of the way I have no issue going BPA.  I rounds 3-4 I think you can grab another OL and WR/RB. The later rounds you can swing for the fences on guys who slipped like Bryce Hall did last year 

Agreed,IMO I think late rounds should be guys that had “1st round potential” but slipped bc ig injury. Low risk and high reward 

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48 minutes ago, doitny said:

BAP, its just that simple.

i would hate to force a pick on offense and end up with the next Alex Lewis when 2 picks later the next Richard Sherman went, but we cant pick CB because we must get help for Wilson.

I think that’s a lazy  rationale. 

You're positing with 20-20 hindsight that a Hall of Famer versus a JAG is why we should go BAP. 

What if both the Olineman and defensive player are pro bowlers?

What if they are both busts?

What if....the Olineman is a future HOFer and the defensive player is a complete bust? 

You can go through every draft with hindsight and find BAPs that were much worse than players rated and picked much lower. 

See how that works? 

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I'd like to see heavy investment at OL and WR. This draft should be all about supporting the rookie quarterback and putting him in the best possible situation to develop and succeed in the next few years.

The offensive line has been neglected for so long. Douglas made significant changes in 2020, and the unit started to improve as the year went on last season, but it still needs work. An effective running game and pass protection are two of the biggest keys to developing the quarterback.

The only wide receivers under contract in 2022 are Davis and Mims. The Jets should be looking to add a difference maker at the position early in the draft to develop alongside the rookie quarterback. They should make every attempt to minimize the turnover at the wide receiver position in 2022 and beyond.

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58 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I'd like to see heavy investment at OL and WR. This draft should be all about supporting the rookie quarterback and putting him in the best possible situation to develop and succeed in the next few years.

The offensive line has been neglected for so long. Douglas made significant changes in 2020, and the unit started to improve as the year went on last season, but it still needs work. An effective running game and pass protection are two of the biggest keys to developing the quarterback.

The only wide receivers under contract in 2022 are Davis and Mims. The Jets should be looking to add a difference maker at the position early in the draft to develop alongside the rookie quarterback. They should make every attempt to minimize the turnover at the wide receiver position in 2022 and beyond.

Honestly our WR group is pretty good.  I’m fine with grabbing a WR in the third round but OL and corner is the biggest need

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1 hour ago, Jets723 said:

Honestly our WR group is pretty good.  I’m fine with grabbing a WR in the third round but OL and corner is the biggest need

I think it can be solid in 2021, but Crowder is in the last year of his contract, and Cole was signed for 1 year. The cupboard is bare in 2022 and beyond. They should grab a WR high this year so he can be developed and step into a major role in year 2.

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I’d hardly be shocked if the pick after Wilson is OL, whether it’s at 23 or whether he trades up or down a little. It’s no slam dunk, though.

Here’s the reality: Becton-McGovern-Fant are locked in as starters (provided they’re all healthy, which they’ll all be at least through draft weekend). That leaves 2 theoretically-open positions - either 2 guards or a G and a C - which is what all the uproar is about. So far most agree (other than those who unrealistically think drafting two rookie OLmen is automatically an immediate upgrade).

Further factor in what Douglas has done - and what he hasn’t done - this spring:

  1. He used a mid-round pick on a G just last year, made a point of not cutting either of the veteran guards he just added last year, despite the jokes made here about all 3 of them, and then signed yet another low-priced, starting guard this year. None are high-end starters, of course, but 3 of the 4 are multi-year starters nonetheless (and all under 30 yrs old). 
  2. He made a point of signing another veteran iOLman, but also made a point of not signing a bigger-name one. Someone who sees an urgency here doesn’t do that; 
  3. On the flip-side, despite the roster being thin at CB, with just Hall & Austin penciled in to start outside, and I guess Guidry in the slot, Douglas made zero effort to sign a veteran corner in FA. Zero. And while yes there are a couple out there still (Sherman being the name that gets thrown around most, for obvious reasons), before the draft he’s not covered his bases there in anywhere near the way he has at guard. The corner position is actually thinner than it was when the season ended, seeing how he hasn’t replaced Poole or Desir.

It leads me to think he’s already got an OL he’s at least content with for week 1. Not that it couldn’t do with improvement, and I still think he’s taking a guard no later than day 2 - and the guess is probably not past 34 - but these actions don’t paint a picture of someone who sees OL as the urgency (i.e. first pick after Wilson) that the fans do. It seems likely a G/T than a C, seeing how McGovern & Feeney are both multi-year starting centers as it is. (Among the 3 veterans, my gut says Feeney is the most likely to end up as the high-paid depth rather than a starter, though.)

Summary: heading into the draft he’s covered his bases on the OL - including adding veteran depth to last year’s group - but hasn’t at corner (on the contrary, he’s let go of two who each saw significant action last year, while making no additions to replace either one, let alone both). That screams early draft pick to me.  

So I still think CB is where he’s going, unless there’s an early run at the position, in which case he’ll probably go OL and then grab a veteran corner. I don’t think that because it’s my personal desire; I think it because that’s what his offseason acquisitions and non-acquisitions point to most.

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7 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

I think that’s a lazy  rationale. 

You're positing with 20-20 hindsight that a Hall of Famer versus a JAG is why we should go BAP. 

What if both the Olineman and defensive player are pro bowlers?

What if they are both busts?

What if....the Olineman is a future HOFer and the defensive player is a complete bust? 

You can go through every draft with hindsight and find BAPs that were much worse than players rated and picked much lower. 

See how that works? 

your right, the draft is a crap shoot.

so if your going with need than the 23 pick is CB. its the only position he really didnt touch.

he got 2 OL and has Clark coming back. 

we have 4 pretty good WRs now, dont think adding a 5th is a need at 23..

nobody drafts TEs in the 1st rd. only been 10 in the history of the NFL and they all have been busts.

maybe a RB if there is a good one there, but Adams and Johnson showed me more than Austin and Hall.

so if we go for the biggest need, its CB

 

 

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4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’d hardly be shocked if the pick after Wilson is OL, whether it’s at 23 or whether he trades up or down a little. It’s no slam dunk, though.

Here’s the reality: Becton-McGovern-Fant are locked in as starters (provided they’re all healthy, which they’ll all be at least through draft weekend). That leaves 2 theoretically-open positions - either 2 guards or a G and a C - which is what all the uproar is about. So far most agree (other than those who unrealistically think drafting two rookie OLmen is automatically an immediate upgrade).

Further factor in what Douglas has done - and what he hasn’t done - this spring:

  1. He used a mid-round pick on a G just last year, made a point of not cutting either of the veteran guards he just added last year, despite the jokes made here about all 3 of them, and then signed yet another low-priced, starting guard this year. None are high-end starters, of course, but 3 of the 4 are multi-year starters nonetheless (and all under 30 yrs old). 
  2. He made a point of signing another veteran iOLman, but also made a point of not signing a bigger-name one. Someone who sees an urgency here doesn’t do that; 
  3. On the flip-side, despite the roster being thin at CB, with just Hall & Austin penciled in to start outside, and I guess Guidry in the slot, Douglas made zero effort to sign a veteran corner in FA. Zero. And while yes there are a couple out there still (Sherman being the name that gets thrown around most, for obvious reasons), before the draft he’s not covered his bases there in anywhere near the way he has at guard. The corner position is actually thinner than it was when the season ended, seeing how he hasn’t replaced Poole or Desir.

It leads me to think he’s already got an OL he’s at least content with for week 1. Not that it couldn’t do with improvement, and I still think he’s taking a guard no later than day 2 - and the guess is probably not past 34 - but these actions don’t paint a picture of someone who sees OL as the urgency (i.e. first pick after Wilson) that the fans do. It seems likely a G/T than a C, seeing how McGovern & Feeney are both multi-year starting centers as it is. (Among the 3 veterans, my gut says Feeney is the most likely to end up as the high-paid depth rather than a starter, though.)

Summary: heading into the draft he’s covered his bases on the OL - including adding veteran depth to last year’s group - but hasn’t at corner (on the contrary, he’s let go of two who each saw significant action last year, while making no additions to replace either one, let alone both). That screams early draft pick to me.  

So I still think CB is where he’s going, unless there’s an early run at the position, in which case he’ll probably go OL and then grab a veteran corner. I don’t think that because it’s my personal desire; I think it because that’s what his offseason acquisitions and non-acquisitions point to most.

We were finalists for William Jackson before he signed for Washington. But that was the extent of our reported interest in any corners. 

I'm not sure our actions, or inactions in free agency is a firm indication of our direction at 23, other than to rule out WR imo. The three bids we had in for players that we couldn't sign were Jackson (CB), Thuney (IOL) and surprisingly Hendricksen (Edge), even after signing Lawson. And those three positions are still the ones that get mocked to the Jets the most at 23. 

For all that, I probably agree with you that JD may feel more comfortable with his options at IOL than we, the fans do. He may look to get one starter from the draft whereas most, myself included, are looking for two. 

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8 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

I think it can be solid in 2021, but Crowder is in the last year of his contract, and Cole was signed for 1 year. The cupboard is bare in 2022 and beyond. They should grab a WR high this year so he can be developed and step into a major role in year 2.

Next year we also have 2 firsts and 2 seconds.  I think OL and corner are the biggest needs and where we will go early 

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Glad you guys are coming around to the building the wall...(trenches). The JETS need at least 2 starting caliber OL from this draft, and then we can talk about if we need more next year.

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17 hours ago, Rob Moore said:

Now let me preface this by saying we absolutely need to draft some oline early and/or often in this draft.  But Ryan Kalil’s comments that were posted over the last few days regarding Gase’s system being a poor scheme fit to personnel and his overall scheme rigidity as well got me thinking.  
We made a lot of oline moves last year that turned out ok.  The line was improved overall but players that were expected to shine (Fant, GVR, McGovern) ended up being serviceable but not great.  These guys were all good/very good players with previous teams.  Did they suddenly just start to stink?

So how much did scheme fit/rigidity contribute to poor oline play?  Perhaps a reason why JD hasn’t been more aggressive for oline is because they expect a bounce back year from these guys?

The OL suffered last year because the jets didnt have a single offensive player that you needed to scheme to defend, not a single one.  Any team they played could play whatever defense they were comfortable, blitz at will, and play with zero concern that they were going to get beat.  Think about what a disadvantage that is for an OL when the defense doesnt have to roll coverage or focus on putting multiple resources towards stopping a player.  

Ideally Id like to see us use 23 on an OL like Teven Jenkins to slot in at Guard where he would be an absolute monster.  After that JD needs to find a swing tackle because Becton seems to get a little banged up and I dont see Edoga as a long-term backup.

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13 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

I'd like to see heavy investment at OL and WR. This draft should be all about supporting the rookie quarterback and putting him in the best possible situation to develop and succeed in the next few years.

The offensive line has been neglected for so long. Douglas made significant changes in 2020, and the unit started to improve as the year went on last season, but it still needs work. An effective running game and pass protection are two of the biggest keys to developing the quarterback.

The only wide receivers under contract in 2022 are Davis and Mims. The Jets should be looking to add a difference maker at the position early in the draft to develop alongside the rookie quarterback. They should make every attempt to minimize the turnover at the wide receiver position in 2022 and beyond.

He went offense with his first two picks last year, and is clearly going offense with his first pick this year. Joe Douglas isn't every other Jets GM taking the best defensive player on the board in the first round. I mentioned in the OP that the one position I'd like to see them target -other than OL- is the slot. This draft is supposed to be deep there, leading me to believe he can get a good one well into the third round (or beyond). That player would sit behind Crowder for most of this year and take over next year. The other option would be for them to extend Cole to be the slot next year, but I prefer drafting one. 

With a rookie QB (and rookie head coach and offensive coordinator), how many rookies do you want to see also starting on offense? Ideally -for me- not many. If they grab a starting caliber G/T and slot him in at RG this year, that's plenty. People are looking for a rookie center, and I just think that would be a mistake hiking to a rookie QB. 

7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’d hardly be shocked if the pick after Wilson is OL, whether it’s at 23 or whether he trades up or down a little. It’s no slam dunk, though.

Here’s the reality: Becton-McGovern-Fant are locked in as starters (provided they’re all healthy, which they’ll all be at least through draft weekend). That leaves 2 theoretically-open positions - either 2 guards or a G and a C - which is what all the uproar is about. So far most agree (other than those who unrealistically think drafting two rookie OLmen is automatically an immediate upgrade).

Further factor in what Douglas has done - and what he hasn’t done - this spring:

  1. He used a mid-round pick on a G just last year, made a point of not cutting either of the veteran guards he just added last year, despite the jokes made here about all 3 of them, and then signed yet another low-priced, starting guard this year. None are high-end starters, of course, but 3 of the 4 are multi-year starters nonetheless (and all under 30 yrs old). 
  2. He made a point of signing another veteran iOLman, but also made a point of not signing a bigger-name one. Someone who sees an urgency here doesn’t do that; 
  3. On the flip-side, despite the roster being thin at CB, with just Hall & Austin penciled in to start outside, and I guess Guidry in the slot, Douglas made zero effort to sign a veteran corner in FA. Zero. And while yes there are a couple out there still (Sherman being the name that gets thrown around most, for obvious reasons), before the draft he’s not covered his bases there in anywhere near the way he has at guard. The corner position is actually thinner than it was when the season ended, seeing how he hasn’t replaced Poole or Desir.

It leads me to think he’s already got an OL he’s at least content with for week 1. Not that it couldn’t do with improvement, and I still think he’s taking a guard no later than day 2 - and the guess is probably not past 34 - but these actions don’t paint a picture of someone who sees OL as the urgency (i.e. first pick after Wilson) that the fans do. It seems likely a G/T than a C, seeing how McGovern & Feeney are both multi-year starting centers as it is. (Among the 3 veterans, my gut says Feeney is the most likely to end up as the high-paid depth rather than a starter, though.)

Summary: heading into the draft he’s covered his bases on the OL - including adding veteran depth to last year’s group - but hasn’t at corner (on the contrary, he’s let go of two who each saw significant action last year, while making no additions to replace either one, let alone both). That screams early draft pick to me.  

So I still think CB is where he’s going, unless there’s an early run at the position, in which case he’ll probably go OL and then grab a veteran corner. I don’t think that because it’s my personal desire; I think it because that’s what his offseason acquisitions and non-acquisitions point to most.

It's going to be interesting to see what he does at CB. I think with the young guys he has and the zone scheme being implemented that he and the staff don't put a huge priority on the position. It's also a position that I could see them signing after -or even during- the draft in free agency. My guess is that he's in touch with one or two CBs still available out there. This is a big year for Ashtyn Davis, who's supposed to have some CB-level skills. Ideally, he'll thrive in the centerfield spot. I could be way off base, but I just think that if you're looking for zone corners, you're not necessarily looking in the early rounds. 

I agree with you that he has a huge competition set up on the OL, for what may eventually be just one OG opening. I still think that one highly drafted rookie starter on the OL should be the plan, and that that would be the only rookie starter on offense besides the QB. 

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46 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Nice to see the OP finally come around on O-line being a priority need.

Meh. 

The OP has always understood the importance of the OL, he's just not at the reactionary extremist level that some other folks here find themselves at...

21 hours ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

So, we have all heard the term "it all starts up front"...and that goes for both sides of the ball.  We've pretty well setup our D line.  Our O line needs the attention.  After Wilson/Fields, why not just use our picks on O linemen?  I know that sounds nutso, but IT ALL STARTS UP FRONT and everyone behind it should benefit from it.  And if we can't assemble a top 5 (or better) O line with all those picks, we don't deserve to be in the football business.  QB, RB, TE and WR's should all be better for having a monster O line.

Yes, that is 100% nutso. 

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44 minutes ago, slats said:

I agree with you that he has a huge competition set up on the OL, for what may eventually be just one OG opening. I still think that one highly drafted rookie starter on the OL should be the plan, and that that would be the only rookie starter on offense besides the QB. 

Big year for Edoga to show something if he expects a new contract.
Clark, Edoga, Feeney, Lewis, McDermott all competing for 2 spots on the line. Also, someone may shake loose from other teams or JD trades a lower rd. pick for a starting G

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1 hour ago, slats said:

Meh. 

The OP has always understood the importance of the OL, he's just not at the reactionary extremist level that some other folks here find themselves at...

Whatever you say slats.  Good to have you on the pro-prioritize-the-OL side one way or the other.

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8 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’d hardly be shocked if the pick after Wilson is OL, whether it’s at 23 or whether he trades up or down a little. It’s no slam dunk, though.

Here’s the reality: Becton-McGovern-Fant are locked in as starters (provided they’re all healthy, which they’ll all be at least through draft weekend). That leaves 2 theoretically-open positions - either 2 guards or a G and a C - which is what all the uproar is about. So far most agree (other than those who unrealistically think drafting two rookie OLmen is automatically an immediate upgrade).

Further factor in what Douglas has done - and what he hasn’t done - this spring:

  1. He used a mid-round pick on a G just last year, made a point of not cutting either of the veteran guards he just added last year, despite the jokes made here about all 3 of them, and then signed yet another low-priced, starting guard this year. None are high-end starters, of course, but 3 of the 4 are multi-year starters nonetheless (and all under 30 yrs old). 
  2. He made a point of signing another veteran iOLman, but also made a point of not signing a bigger-name one. Someone who sees an urgency here doesn’t do that; 
  3. On the flip-side, despite the roster being thin at CB, with just Hall & Austin penciled in to start outside, and I guess Guidry in the slot, Douglas made zero effort to sign a veteran corner in FA. Zero. And while yes there are a couple out there still (Sherman being the name that gets thrown around most, for obvious reasons), before the draft he’s not covered his bases there in anywhere near the way he has at guard. The corner position is actually thinner than it was when the season ended, seeing how he hasn’t replaced Poole or Desir.

It leads me to think he’s already got an OL he’s at least content with for week 1. Not that it couldn’t do with improvement, and I still think he’s taking a guard no later than day 2 - and the guess is probably not past 34 - but these actions don’t paint a picture of someone who sees OL as the urgency (i.e. first pick after Wilson) that the fans do. It seems likely a G/T than a C, seeing how McGovern & Feeney are both multi-year starting centers as it is. (Among the 3 veterans, my gut says Feeney is the most likely to end up as the high-paid depth rather than a starter, though.)

Summary: heading into the draft he’s covered his bases on the OL - including adding veteran depth to last year’s group - but hasn’t at corner (on the contrary, he’s let go of two who each saw significant action last year, while making no additions to replace either one, let alone both). That screams early draft pick to me.  

So I still think CB is where he’s going, unless there’s an early run at the position, in which case he’ll probably go OL and then grab a veteran corner. I don’t think that because it’s my personal desire; I think it because that’s what his offseason acquisitions and non-acquisitions point to most.

It’s funny, I don’t think of corner as thin or a likely position for him to address early. They have Austin and Hall as presumptive starters in a zone based scheme that doesn’t really prioritize corner play. Both guys fell in the draft not because they weren’t talented, but because of injury, both are healthy now, and both fit the zone scheme better than man. San Francisco had reclamation projects at corner just in a different way - they had older guys. The scheme’s philosophy is getting pressure with four which means really prioritizing those guys IMO. I actually think safeties with good cover skills are prioritized more because they’re harder to find, you’re not looking for corners who can run and mirror like a Revis in this scheme. They need to be big, press, and tackle, but guys are going to get passed off to other players.

I also think Lamar Jackson and Corey Ballentine to a lesser extent fit the zone, Justin Hardee is a corner when he’s not an elite special teams player and got run there for the Saints, and Guidry was the nickel at the end of last season.

On top of that, all of those guys are cheap and all but Jackson and Guidry are signed next year. All things considered with a non-premium position that has a lot of young players signed, several for for multiple years, I think it’s way more prudent to see what you’ve got there and address it next year than make a serious investment at the position like the 23rd pick would require. There are lots of zone fits who will be available later, too, it’s guys with man cover skills who go early. This isn’t a win-now team, the philosophy is to build inside-out, and I just don’t think bad corner play for one year - which isn’t even a guarantee - has any impact on the trajectory of the franchise’s development. See what you’ve got there, and if it needs to be addressed they’ll have plenty of premium selections next year to take care of that.

Just my $.02.

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On 4/17/2021 at 7:40 AM, derp said:

The OL thing is super complicated. I think if guys are taken at 23/34 you’re actually probably looking at a short-term downgrade for a long-term upgrade. Right now the full line is back from last year and continuity is really important.

This is also a really deep OL class. So theoretically, Douglas could wait on it, draft some really solid guys in the round 3-5 range (where he’s got 5 picks before trades) who can step in as starters next year. That particularly is the case since the big need is iOL which goes later anyway. Then they can benefit from the current line continuity and do more of a pipeline thing.

The flip side is, obviously they love the quarterback they’re taking at two, but it’s a huge risk. What position has the highest hit rate in the first round? Center. Guard and tackle are way up there too. If you’re going to gamble at the top of the draft, you kind of need to hit somewhere. So safe picks that help support that gamble make a lot of sense to me.

We also saw the athleticism thing early and the captain thing late last year. Creed Humphrey is an insane athlete who was a team captain. Dude seems like a legitimate leader and a freak athlete at a long-term need position that helps support the quarterback and has a high hit rate. He makes so much sense. The flip side there is this draft has a bunch of centers who are better zone fits than gap and most of them were team captains so they could do that later (Meinerz and Dalman are the big two). But I kind of think a safe hit in the 23/34 range is smart.

A sneaky pick is Samuel Cosmi who is also a freak athlete team captain zone fit. He’s not a super natural fit as a traditional road grader RT or a guard but I’m not sure how important that is in the zone scheme, he’s supposedly comfortable at all non-center spots and tested out elite athletically after being a three year starter with one year on the right side and two on the left. I also think having LT versatility is valuable a) with Becton showing a propensity to miss snaps and b) from a trade standpoint if he works out but doesn’t fit into the team’s long-term plans value wise. Teams offer serious draft capital for left tackles. But again, they can draft Walker Little or Samuel Brown in the third round and be good with a backup for Fant who takes over.

Kendrick Green is an elite outside zone guard who seems to be on the day two/three fringe and has some center experience too.

The other interesting thing team building wise is while we perceive the needs are on the interior there are a lot of bodies there right now. McGovern can’t be cut (but can be moved to guard), I kind of doubt Feeney is cut based on his contract structure (minimal savings on a one year deal), Clark seems like a long shot to be cut as last years fourth round pick with really minimal cap savings...and the penciled in starters at guard are Lewis and Van Roten. Those two can be cut easily.

So while they could fit a developmental center, I don’t think they can really do that at guard. They need to cut a starter to fit the draft pick, so interior guys need to be a day one starter. Part of why I think Humphrey makes sense (day one starter, McGovern to guard, cut Lewis/Van Roten) and Cosmi would too (cut Lewis/Van Roten if he wins a spot, he fits as tackle depth if he doesn’t and can take over for Fant.

Anyway, it’s going to be interesting there. Couple really different potential approaches. It’s highly possible that it gets addressed way less than fans want if they don’t do it early - I think it’s prudent early but also didn’t think the QB at two was prudent - and I only think he’s got roster room to draft two guys, maybe three if they stretch.

The thing nobody is talking about is that the linebacker room desperately needs help.

Good post.  I pretty much agree. There are a ton of options and scenarios you can go through. It looks like the Jets are scouting both early, mid and late round O-line prospects closely. I think they definitely intent to take someone early- whether thats at 23, after a move down from 23, or at 34. The draft may not fall their way and it may not happen, but I think the intend to bring in a plug and play starter. You can argue that continuity is important on the o-line and I agree, but this will be a new system and guys at the G position rotated a lot due to injury and Lewis being in the 'dog house' last year. I.E. they won't have much continuity to lose. 

I also don't see is as a short term downgrade if they take someone early. The Guard play was really poor. For example,  I can't imagine a guy like Teven Jenkins or C.Humphrey coming in and playing much worse than GVR or Lewis at G. You never know, but I doubt it. I know they are starters but I guarantee they will be on the chopping block unless the draft falls horribly wrong for the Jets at 23 and/or 34 and they miss out on their o-lineman.    

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4 hours ago, slats said:

It's going to be interesting to see what he does at CB. I think with the young guys he has and the zone scheme being implemented that he and the staff don't put a huge priority on the position. It's also a position that I could see them signing after -or even during- the draft in free agency. My guess is that he's in touch with one or two CBs still available out there. This is a big year for Ashtyn Davis, who's supposed to have some CB-level skills. Ideally, he'll thrive in the centerfield spot. I could be way off base, but I just think that if you're looking for zone corners, you're not necessarily looking in the early rounds. 

I agree with you that he has a huge competition set up on the OL, for what may eventually be just one OG opening. I still think that one highly drafted rookie starter on the OL should be the plan, and that that would be the only rookie starter on offense besides the QB. 

I think that is the plan, but he's gone out of his way to have 3 returning guards from last year and then adding a 4th G/C (not counting last year's reserves who are still on the roster, including Edoga fwiw). 

I'm not saying he's going to certainly go with a non-OL pick at 23; I don't think that at all. But I think if he's looking at a board where he can grab the draft's #2 corner (Surtain?), or say it's the 5th-rated OL prospect with the top 3 tackles plus Tucker already gone (when at worst, the 6th-7th will still be on the board at his next pick, and anyway the difference between the prospects' relative rankings is really subjective once you get outside the top 2-3 guys). In that case, I think - absent a trade-down offer he can't refuse - he's running to the podium to take a corner at 23.

The draft is also just way deep at OL in general, and his line's biggest need position G is the easiest of them all to fill an instant-starter via the draft: he can go with a college guard, a college center, or a college tackle. He's less pigeon-holed than if he had just a placeholder at tackle or center.

Anyway, putting aside anyone's desire of immediately going OL for the sake of immediately going OL, JD's offseason points to the opposite. I agree he doesn't need Revis II in zone coverage, but the existing starters & immediate depth are just too thin, and require much more finger-crossing, to go 16 games than having an OL with 4-5 returning starters plus the #34 pick in the draft. 

And yes, I think the idea of drafting and starting 2 rookies is beyond naive, almost to the point of being unrealistically silly. No OC or OLC wants 2 rookie starters on his zbl (or even mbl), let alone with a rookie QB and less-than-elite RBs. While that might yield a better line long-term, that very idea still flies in the face of the fans' stated goal: to immediately better protect Wilson(?) this season. 

Douglas's actions (and inactions) demonstrate that he does not see the OL as the extreme level weakness that the fans do. FFS cap-wise even an all-pro like Linsley wouldn't have even cost much, or Zeitler would've been an outright savings, by swapping his cap$ for Lewis plus just one of GVR/Feeney. Clearly Douglas doesn't see this as an area of desperation for this season. So I think he's only going OL at 23 if the draft unfolds in a way where that's the BAP value pick over corner (or depending who's there, potentially edge or LB).

 

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2 hours ago, derp said:

It’s funny, I don’t think of corner as thin or a likely position for him to address early. They have Austin and Hall as presumptive starters in a zone based scheme that doesn’t really prioritize corner play. Both guys fell in the draft not because they weren’t talented, but because of injury, both are healthy now, and both fit the zone scheme better than man. San Francisco had reclamation projects at corner just in a different way - they had older guys. The scheme’s philosophy is getting pressure with four which means really prioritizing those guys IMO. I actually think safeties with good cover skills are prioritized more because they’re harder to find, you’re not looking for corners who can run and mirror like a Revis in this scheme. They need to be big, press, and tackle, but guys are going to get passed off to other players.

I also think Lamar Jackson and Corey Ballentine to a lesser extent fit the zone, Justin Hardee is a corner when he’s not an elite special teams player and got run there for the Saints, and Guidry was the nickel at the end of last season.

On top of that, all of those guys are cheap and all but Jackson and Guidry are signed next year. All things considered with a non-premium position that has a lot of young players signed, several for for multiple years, I think it’s way more prudent to see what you’ve got there and address it next year than make a serious investment at the position like the 23rd pick would require. There are lots of zone fits who will be available later, too, it’s guys with man cover skills who go early. This isn’t a win-now team, the philosophy is to build inside-out, and I just don’t think bad corner play for one year - which isn’t even a guarantee - has any impact on the trajectory of the franchise’s development. See what you’ve got there, and if it needs to be addressed they’ll have plenty of premium selections next year to take care of that.

Just my $.02.

I think Austin + Hall + Guidry = a lot thinner than the current OL. Even more so with both Austin's and Hall's injury histories, even though I like the potential each has individually.

Jackson? Meh, he might have some potential but I'm not at all impressed yet, even aside from the end of the Oakland game. He's not been demonstrably any better than any other team's young backups, let alone that he should be in the discussion to be a starter (outside of desperation after injuries to at least 2 actual starters).

That zone scheme prioritized corner enough for SF to sign Sherman instead of just going with their few mid-round pick prospects or drafting someone else in round 2 or 3 in 2018. They just didn't take them in round 1 as they often found themselves picking in Jets-pick territory in the top 10 and there weren't any corners rated highly enough. In the mindset on those draft days, what corner was anyone taking over #3 Solomon Thomas or #9 Mike McGlinchey (with ward already gone at #4) or #2 Nick Bosa? Or with the hopes that the 90+ graded Foster would be their next Willis/Bowman. Then in 2020 they had their returning corners from their #1-ranked pass D, so it wasn't nearly the priority of DT to replace Buckner nor WR to replace Sanders. 

Teams with zone defenses still draft corners in round 1. I disagree corner isn't a premium position; perceived need this year aside, overall corner's certainly a more premium position than guard.

Right now the Jets have zero corners on the roster who've started more than 10 games in a season, and none who's done so twice. This stuff's all subjective, but imo it doesn't get much thinner than that. 

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think Austin + Hall + Guidry = a lot thinner than the current OL. Even more so with both Austin's and Hall's injury histories, even though I like the potential each has individually.

Jackson? Meh, he might have some potential but I'm not at all impressed yet, even aside from the end of the Oakland game. He's not been demonstrably any better than any other team's young backups, let alone that he should be in the discussion to be a starter (outside of desperation after injuries to at least 2 actual starters).

That zone scheme prioritized corner enough for SF to sign Sherman instead of just going with their few mid-round pick prospects or drafting someone else in round 2 or 3 in 2018. They just didn't take them in round 1 as they often found themselves picking in Jets-pick territory in the top 10 and there weren't any corners rated highly enough. In the mindset on those draft days, what corner was anyone taking over #3 Solomon Thomas or #9 Mike McGlinchey (with ward already gone at #4) or #2 Nick Bosa? Or with the hopes that the 90+ graded Foster would be their next Willis/Bowman. Then in 2020 they had their returning corners from their #1-ranked pass D, so it wasn't nearly the priority of DT to replace Buckner nor WR to replace Sanders. 

Teams with zone defenses still draft corners in round 1. I disagree corner isn't a premium position; perceived need this year aside, overall corner's certainly a more premium position than guard.

Right now the Jets have zero corners on the roster who've started more than 10 games in a season, and none who's done so twice. This stuff's all subjective, but imo it doesn't get much thinner than that. 

I guess that’s the other side of it too, I think if he was worried at all about corner he would’ve signed a band aid. That’s his MO. I don’t think he cares about the position this year. Offensive line is all band aids and a few young guys. Corner is all young guys. I think he’s just going to let them play it out.

Lewis’ injury history is gross, too. The linemen are expensive, mediocre, and potential cuts. They lack long term answers at 3-4 of 5 positions if we count Clark as a potential long-term answer. I don’t think any offensive lineman they’d draft in round one is a long-term starter at guard. 

The corners are cheap, talented, unproven, and signed multiple years. They lack *certain* long term answers, but multiple potential long-term answers. To me that’s not something you draft early, it’s something you draft in the mid rounds, which is usually the earliest pick teams spend on zone guys anyway. Or sign Nelson post-draft if they’re concerned.

Maybe teams that already have a lot of their roster in place draft zone corners round one? It’s a waste IMO. Corner is a traits > production position and stuff like sub 4.4 speed and great agility that lead to that skill set you need to be successful in man coverage is what gets guys drafted early. The 6’+ guys with long arms and stiff hips who run 4.5+ are perfect zone fits and they go in round 3 or later.

All of the guys people are talking about drafting in round one this year are going to get drafted there because their traits lead them to being good fits in a man scheme.

I just really don’t think Douglas is drafting for this roster year to year, he’s building the team. Potential answers are more valuable than answers IMO, and he’s got several at corner. Doesn’t hurt anyone else if a couple of those guys don’t play well this year, and again he’s got a lot of premium picks to address it later if he wants.

I also don’t think it has to be offensive line, by any stretch. Corner is just really low on the list of what I’d expect he’ll take in that area of the draft. Center, tackle, or edge seems most likely, then tight end, then linebacker, then receiver, then running back, then safety, then guard, then corner, then defensive tackle would be my guess. I could be quite, quite wrong. We’ll certainly see. 

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4 hours ago, slats said:

Meh. 

The OP has always understood the importance of the OL, he's just not at the reactionary extremist level that some other folks here find themselves at...

Yes, that is 100% nutso. 

 

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At 23 and 34 I don’t see JD veering too far off BPA.  That is now how good GMs work.

If I had to guess, the likely, preferred BPA at 23 is Jenkins, and the likely preferred BPA at 34 is Humphrey.  I think there is a greater chance of Teven being there at 23 than Creed at 34.

If you looked at the good teams drafting at 23 and see what their needs are, a lot are OL.  Bills, Packers, Chiefs.   The Packers just lost their Center.   The top OL are not lasting until 34.  Good CBs could fall though.  

If in the third round the view is that the OL needs to be upgraded, a good G picked there would be highly likely to improve the line and push one of Lewis, GVR, Feeney for a roster spot.  

But I could easily see no suitable OL being available at 23 or 34, and walking away with a CB, WR or maybe even LB. 

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On 4/17/2021 at 1:44 PM, TheClashFan said:

The benefit of drafting a new starting C early in the draft is that the Jets improve two spots on the line at once.  McGovern slides out to one of the G spots.  So, you have a young, stud C and a better G.  Also, lots of versatility b/c McGovern can always slide back to C if the young guy gets injured.  The Jets will probably be able to draft their #1 ranked center, if they want, at pick 23.  It is possible that their #1 guy is still there at 34, but he may not. They might think they are fine at C right now, but I hope they don't think that.

They also need to take an OT early as well.  Fant is mediocre at best at RT, and he'll probably have to play some LT when Becton needs a "breather."  He needed several last year, so whoever the Jets third OT is will likely get to start some this year.  Again, at 23 there will likely be some good prospects, but maybe 34 is a better value slot for an OT.

At any rate, I hope JD takes an OL of some sort at 23 (OT or C), and then another either in the 2nd or 3rd round.  He needs to jump start a new OL build right now. With Becton, a new C, and a new RT, he'll have done so.

I'd love to see #2 Wilson, #23 best C on the board, and #34 best OT on the board.

After that, BAP.

 

This is exactly where I'm at too.

2- Wilson

23-Humphrey

34-Jenkins/Leatherwood/Eichenberg 

Fant can start until the kid is ready and then he becomes a very valuable swing tackle. 

 

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On 4/17/2021 at 7:40 AM, derp said:

The OL thing is super complicated. I think if guys are taken at 23/34 you’re actually probably looking at a short-term downgrade for a long-term upgrade. Right now the full line is back from last year and continuity is really important.

This is also a really deep OL class. So theoretically, Douglas could wait on it, draft some really solid guys in the round 3-5 range (where he’s got 5 picks before trades) who can step in as starters next year. That particularly is the case since the big need is iOL which goes later anyway. Then they can benefit from the current line continuity and do more of a pipeline thing.

The flip side is, obviously they love the quarterback they’re taking at two, but it’s a huge risk. What position has the highest hit rate in the first round? Center. Guard and tackle are way up there too. If you’re going to gamble at the top of the draft, you kind of need to hit somewhere. So safe picks that help support that gamble make a lot of sense to me.

We also saw the athleticism thing early and the captain thing late last year. Creed Humphrey is an insane athlete who was a team captain. Dude seems like a legitimate leader and a freak athlete at a long-term need position that helps support the quarterback and has a high hit rate. He makes so much sense. The flip side there is this draft has a bunch of centers who are better zone fits than gap and most of them were team captains so they could do that later (Meinerz and Dalman are the big two). But I kind of think a safe hit in the 23/34 range is smart.

A sneaky pick is Samuel Cosmi who is also a freak athlete team captain zone fit. He’s not a super natural fit as a traditional road grader RT or a guard but I’m not sure how important that is in the zone scheme, he’s supposedly comfortable at all non-center spots and tested out elite athletically after being a three year starter with one year on the right side and two on the left. I also think having LT versatility is valuable a) with Becton showing a propensity to miss snaps and b) from a trade standpoint if he works out but doesn’t fit into the team’s long-term plans value wise. Teams offer serious draft capital for left tackles. But again, they can draft Walker Little or Samuel Brown in the third round and be good with a backup for Fant who takes over.

Kendrick Green is an elite outside zone guard who seems to be on the day two/three fringe and has some center experience too.

The other interesting thing team building wise is while we perceive the needs are on the interior there are a lot of bodies there right now. McGovern can’t be cut (but can be moved to guard), I kind of doubt Feeney is cut based on his contract structure (minimal savings on a one year deal), Clark seems like a long shot to be cut as last years fourth round pick with really minimal cap savings...and the penciled in starters at guard are Lewis and Van Roten. Those two can be cut easily.

So while they could fit a developmental center, I don’t think they can really do that at guard. They need to cut a starter to fit the draft pick, so interior guys need to be a day one starter. Part of why I think Humphrey makes sense (day one starter, McGovern to guard, cut Lewis/Van Roten) and Cosmi would too (cut Lewis/Van Roten if he wins a spot, he fits as tackle depth if he doesn’t and can take over for Fant.

Anyway, it’s going to be interesting there. Couple really different potential approaches. It’s highly possible that it gets addressed way less than fans want if they don’t do it early - I think it’s prudent early but also didn’t think the QB at two was prudent - and I only think he’s got roster room to draft two guys, maybe three if they stretch.

The thing nobody is talking about is that the linebacker room desperately needs help.

Good post.  The one thing I cringed at was your saying that continuity is important on the OLine.  It is, but only once you have good OLinemen.  If JD thought the continuity was most important he wouldn't have plugged three new FA starters into the line last offseason (McGovern, GVR, Fant).  This was the 29th ranked offensive line in the NFL last year.  We don't want that kind of continuity.  There's a new coaching staff coming in as well so the scheme and plays will be new for practically everyone on that OLine be it a veteran or a rookie.  No better time than now to get a young guy in there to benefit from Day 1 of this new regime.

We need at least one bonafide OL upgrade (either at 23 or 34).  A guy who can immediately compete to start at either OG or RT would be perfect.  If it's a Guard who can push out to RT next year, great.  With such a deep OL draft class I'd look to get the second OLinemen later in the 2nd round, maybe by trading up from #66 which will be less expensive than trading up from 23 or 34.  How about an Alijah Vera-Tucker or Tevin Jenkins at 23 and then move up into the 50's or 40's for a solid RT prospect like Eichenberg or Radunz?  There are also lots of rumors that the Jets like guys such as Walker Little, Spencer Brown, etc.  We're not taking those guys at 23 or 34.  I think we'll see QB, OL, WR/Edge, OL in terms of the first 4 picks.

 

 

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3 hours ago, derp said:

I guess that’s the other side of it too, I think if he was worried at all about corner he would’ve signed a band aid. That’s his MO. I don’t think he cares about the position this year. Offensive line is all band aids and a few young guys. Corner is all young guys. I think he’s just going to let them play it out.

Lewis’ injury history is gross, too. The linemen are expensive, mediocre, and potential cuts. They lack long term answers at 3-4 of 5 positions if we count Clark as a potential long-term answer. I don’t think any offensive lineman they’d draft in round one is a long-term starter at guard. 

The corners are cheap, talented, unproven, and signed multiple years. They lack *certain* long term answers, but multiple potential long-term answers. To me that’s not something you draft early, it’s something you draft in the mid rounds, which is usually the earliest pick teams spend on zone guys anyway. Or sign Nelson post-draft if they’re concerned.

Maybe teams that already have a lot of their roster in place draft zone corners round one? It’s a waste IMO. Corner is a traits > production position and stuff like sub 4.4 speed and great agility that lead to that skill set you need to be successful in man coverage is what gets guys drafted early. The 6’+ guys with long arms and stiff hips who run 4.5+ are perfect zone fits and they go in round 3 or later.

All of the guys people are talking about drafting in round one this year are going to get drafted there because their traits lead them to being good fits in a man scheme.

I just really don’t think Douglas is drafting for this roster year to year, he’s building the team. Potential answers are more valuable than answers IMO, and he’s got several at corner. Doesn’t hurt anyone else if a couple of those guys don’t play well this year, and again he’s got a lot of premium picks to address it later if he wants.

I also don’t think it has to be offensive line, by any stretch. Corner is just really low on the list of what I’d expect he’ll take in that area of the draft. Center, tackle, or edge seems most likely, then tight end, then linebacker, then receiver, then running back, then safety, then guard, then corner, then defensive tackle would be my guess. I could be quite, quite wrong. We’ll certainly see. 

Yeah maybe. I don’t think he’s seeing the OL as the need the fans are. He’s got his starters and has depth. They all have multiple years starting experience except Becton. That’s the opposite of the CB position group.

Plus I think he’s trying to play Moneyball, and a rookie corner/edge is way bigger proportional savings for a high end starter than it is for guards. It’s also a lot easier to hit on a guard later than it is for a corner, and bet he knows it.

Further the position group is deeper and literally and individual OL prospects can play guard. Not so in the secondary, where only corners play corner, and slot guys don’t fit/play outside.

I don’t think his actions are those of someone who’s going OL as early. I won’t be at all shocked to see it, but only if it’s a value pick he couldn’t get at another position. I’d only be shocked at something like if he took the 5th rated OLman over the 2nd rated CB.

 

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