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JD Needs an OL Upgrade in the Draft, after that he can BAP it the rest of the way


slats

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11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Kind of how I feel. 99% of the time, all I'm reflexively seeing is a TE and I wouldn't take one in the top 10 (let alone effectively trade a 1st this year and next year, and probably a 3rd this year or a 2nd next year, to move up to take one). I'll miss out on a great one every once in a while, but I'll also miss out on the 2 of 3 that range from not-as-good-as-advertised to outright bust. In 2017 the guy I heard we had to draft was an elite playmaker future all-pro named OJ Howard. Yeah, exactly. 

It's unusual, though, to have someone this heralded alone, and Pitts is getting more love than Howard got back then. Only one who was in this ballpark was probably Vernon Davis after he ran the 40 in 4.38. 

But then on top of his hype - which seems justified - add to it that

  • the Jets' TE is on a 3-year run as a huge letdown, and is a UFA after the season anyway.
  • Further add that the team already has its 3 WRs, with two of them still very young & locked up for at least 3 more seasons.
  • Further beyond that, how much the TE position was featured in Saleh-LaFleur's last gig. 
  • Then on top of all that, that the Jets would not only still have more than a regular arsenal of picks after round 1 this year, but all our picks next year, too. 

I was discussing with @derp and agree even if we were talking an identically-rated WR vs Pitts, on the Jets they'd probably realize a greater net gain with the TE, even though WR is an innately premium position and TE isn't.

So it's unusual. Given the unique talent, the need, and the wealth of picks the team would still have anyway, I could go for this despite his nominal position. 

Yeah, I think it’s absolutely a gamble to slats’ point - the fit is just absolutely perfect as you outlined. Personnel this year and future years, scheme, an elite tight end just fits this roster like a glove. It’s the big piece that doesn’t bump anybody important off the field, let’s the other passing game weapons fall into line, supports a young quarterback, fills a need next year...

I also very much get the tight end skepticism and it’s probably not a big risk to pass. Also part of why I think he could slide. I honestly don’t think he makes a lot of sense for an Atlanta team with an aging roster that had a terrible record last year despite lots of weapons. They go quarterback and all of a sudden guys on the board don’t make it crazy for teams like Cincy and Miami to pass, not sure he moves the needle for Detroit...it’s certainly hopeful and Atlanta is very much in play but if other teams have that attitude he could certainly tumble. Not to mention how much easier it gets for him to fall if there’s a surprise pick like Parsons at 6.

I do think the league has been really bad at drafting tight ends. They have overrated physical tools and blocking at the top of the draft. Hockenson was always going to be solid and him being a quality blocker pushed him up but he wasn’t an obvious high ceiling guy. Everyone knew Ebron had inconsistent hands in college - athleticism is great but inconsistent hands will always be a problem. Howard couldn’t jump - a move tight end with in line size who got drafted like he could do everything when he was never a contested ball guy in college and that leaping ability was probably a big part of why. Davis was rocked up but not flexible or really developed at all - had some big plays in college but you were drafting on tools. I don’t think those guys really produced huge numbers in college.

Not only does Pitts have awesome hands and the ability to catch balls outside his frame, which is really important and why I posted on here almost a year ago before the breakout year that he was my favorite TE prospect in the draft. But he’s a fluid mover and outstanding athlete who produced in college.  We haven’t seen outstanding hands + athleticism + production from a TE prospect. Most of the time it’s not even two. None of those guys touch him as an out of frame catcher and maybe two are on her level athletically.

The injuries are a concern, you don’t really know what the testing numbers are since there was no combine, and he could probably stand to get a little bigger...but he’s as clean a prospect as I’ve seen at the position. He’s in the Calvin Johnson, Von Miller, Sean Taylor kind of prospect tier where I’m just not even sure what you really nitpick. Except, in his case, the position.

And really the poor track record of taking TE’s early argument can easily be translated to top 3 picks on QB’s (with less consistency but a much larger sample ) and they’re doing that anyway.

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, I think it’s absolutely a gamble to slats’ point - the fit is just absolutely perfect as you outlined. Personnel this year and future years, scheme, an elite tight end just fits this roster like a glove. It’s the big piece that doesn’t bump anybody important off the field, let’s the other passing game weapons fall into line, supports a young quarterback, fills a need next year...

I also very much get the tight end skepticism and it’s probably not a big risk to pass. Also part of why I think he could slide. I honestly don’t think he makes a lot of sense for an Atlanta team with an aging roster that had a terrible record last year despite lots of weapons. They go quarterback and all of a sudden guys on the board don’t make it crazy for teams like Cincy and Miami to pass, not sure he moves the needle for Detroit...it’s certainly hopeful and Atlanta is very much in play but if other teams have that attitude he could certainly tumble. Not to mention how much easier it gets for him to fall if there’s a surprise pick like Parsons at 6.

I do think the league has been really bad at drafting tight ends. They have overrated physical tools and blocking at the top of the draft. Hockenson was always going to be solid and him being a quality blocker pushed him up but he wasn’t an obvious high ceiling guy. Everyone knew Ebron had inconsistent hands in college - athleticism is great but inconsistent hands will always be a problem. Howard couldn’t jump - a move tight end with in line size who got drafted like he could do everything when he was never a contested ball guy in college and that leaping ability was probably a big part of why. Davis was rocked up but not flexible or really developed at all - had some big plays in college but you were drafting on tools. I don’t think those guys really produced huge numbers in college.

Not only does Pitts have awesome hands and the ability to catch balls outside his frame, which is really important and why I posted on here almost a year ago before the breakout year that he was my favorite TE prospect in the draft. But he’s a fluid mover and outstanding athlete who produced in college.  We haven’t seen outstanding hands + athleticism + production from a TE prospect. Most of the time it’s not even two. None of those guys touch him as an out of frame catcher and maybe two are on her level athletically.

The injuries are a concern, you don’t really know what the testing numbers are since there was no combine, and he could probably stand to get a little bigger...but he’s as clean a prospect as I’ve seen at the position. He’s in the Calvin Johnson, Von Miller, Sean Taylor kind of prospect tier where I’m just not even sure what you really nitpick. Except, in his case, the position.

And really the poor track record of taking TE’s early argument can easily be translated to top 3 picks on QB’s (with less consistency but a much larger sample ) and they’re doing that anyway.

My thinking was that not only has Detroit still got Hockenson, but after Ebron #10 in 2014 and Hockenson #8 in 2019, I think their fanbase has as much appetite for another top 10 pick TE at #7 as the Jets' fanbase has for another DT. If they took Pitts at #7, Holmes (their GM) had better nail way more picks than expected later on to make up for it; and if that was so easy then no one would ever trade up on days 1-2. 

But for me? Yeah it's just position. He's obviously an elite prospect and a fit for the perfect storm of reasons already enumerated.

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10 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

My thinking was that not only has Detroit still got Hockenson, but after Ebron #10 in 2014 and Hockenson #8 in 2019, I think their fanbase has as much appetite for another top 10 pick TE at #7 as the Jets' fanbase has for another DT. If they took Pitts at #7, Holmes (their GM) had better nail way more picks than expected later on to make up for it; and if that was so easy then no one would ever trade up on days 1-2. 

But for me? Yeah it's just position. He's obviously an elite prospect and a fit for the perfect storm of reasons already enumerated.

Totally agree re the Lions.

I think the fun thing is Detroit is where I’d try to get to, but I would’ve taken Mims instead of trading down. Maybe Douglas has a good feel that Carolina passes. Or Detroit and Denver flip for the fifth QB, Carolina passes, and Detroit drops down again. Or he’s comfortable rolling the dice but when Philly comes up the price gets cheap enough.

All that said he’ll go at 4. I think not only is Pitts a great fit but he’s the only guy in this draft who really checks all the boxes and you can’t get someone who can do 90% of what’s needed if not more in the third round. Next closest thing is probably an edge rusher but this class is so meh production wise I’d let Vinny Curry do his thing this year and roll with the two first round picks in next year’s class.

We’ve also seen them do weird things. Taking Ojulari, slimming him down to play linebacker, and then putting his hand in the dirt on third downs is something that we’re not really taking about but probably vibes with the scheme and needs and lets Saleh put his own weird touch on this style of defense. Then maybe that strongside end is the less important role you’re okay kicking off the field on third down rather than the DT’s.

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6 hours ago, Embrace the Suck said:

You will find no complaints from me if they go oline at both 23 and 34. RT and C need long term guys stat.

Yep I would love Creed at 34 but I'm leaning Najee (if available) at 23. I know that's not popular but I want him to take some of the pressure off Zack also his blocking is superior as well

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13 hours ago, rangerous said:

agree. the team's needs have to be considered but just as important is the relative grade of the player. and position.  get good players and the coaches will put them in the right place.  interesting that in saleh's press conference last week he wasn't so concerned about getting 3-4 or 4-3 dlinemen.  if they can play football they'll learn the position.  a know team is strictly one thing or another these days.

You have just described how 100% of NFL GMs approach the draft -- the difference between the good GMs and the bad ones is how well they evaluate players. Not that they blindly go need or blindly go "best available player." Those extremes do not exist in real life.

This topic is a case of "violently agreeing."

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On 4/27/2021 at 4:19 PM, Sonny Werblin said:

Not that time. The draft just didn't fall that way, but I normally don't spend a high pick on a WR because the O line and running game are more of an urgent need.

While I like the idea of taking a guy like Dazz Newsome in the later rounds because he is a return guy who had only 1 fair catch in 2 seasons (because I can not stand another season of watching Berrios fair catch 98% of the punts) or Trevon Grimes as a Red Zone target, I do not like the idea of drafting a WR with a high pick because a rookie QB needs veteran WRs to lean on rather than a rookie WR who is just as inexperienced as the rookie QB.

 

they need to not rush zach wilson and let him learn  

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Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker on the left side is going to be lethal. The RG spot is going to be open for competition, and it won't shock me to see one of the undrafted OL (Hoge, Ferguson, Saltes, Hermanns) really put Lewis, Van Roten, Clark, Feeney, and McDermott to the test. 

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1 minute ago, football guy said:

Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker on the left side is going to be lethal. The RG spot is going to be open for competition, and it won't shock me to see one of the undrafted OL (Hoge, Ferguson, Saltes, Hermanns) really put Lewis, Van Roten, Clark, Feeney, and McDermott to the test. 

I like the look of Hoge and Saltes.

Hoge can be a C or G and seems quite well suited for the outside zone.

Saltes is a big unit, seems like he has a mean streak, and has good mobility for his size.

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47 minutes ago, football guy said:

Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker on the left side is going to be lethal. The RG spot is going to be open for competition, and it won't shock me to see one of the undrafted OL (Hoge, Ferguson, Saltes, Hermanns) really put Lewis, Van Roten, Clark, Feeney, and McDermott to the test. 

I'd actually be pretty shocked if all 3 veteran starters, plus Clark, all get shown up by any of the UDFAs and it's even in contention that there'll be an UDFA starter week 1.

I'm sure they'll leave the opportunity there with an open competition, but in terms of it happening honestly I don't even give it 1 in 10. If it happens it happens, but I can't imagine any coach truly wants 2 rookies on their OL in the first place. All 3 veterans (and Clark) would have to be injured, look like total garbage all summer, or both. Right or wrong I'm not even counting McDermott. I don't know if they'd also give Edoga a shot at starting at guard, too. That position move has saved more than one failed tackle prospect over the years.

I don't know which of the returning veterans has the edge, but whichever it is I doubt has enough of an edge for it to matter on day one. It isn't anybody's job to lose. 

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Having an ehhhh right guard is not really a good idea. You want the right side to have at least 1 standout guy and right now the Jets dont have that. Might be a good idea to pick up a good RG if he becomes available by trade or June 1st cuts.

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