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The Jets Aren't Going to be Good This Year


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-Better Head Coach (Gase was the worst I've ever seen.)

-Better Offensive Coordinator (Did we even have an O-Co under Gase, really?)

-Better QB (We have to presume Wilson won't be dead last in the NFL, otherwise why would we dump Sam and draft Wilson, amirite?)

-Better at RB (No more feeding old Gore.)

-Better #1 WR (Davis over Perriman.)

-Better #2 WR (Mims healthy vs. missed most of season.)

-Not having a depth guy like Berrios be #2 in Catches at WR, lol.

-Better O-line (almost by default, Becton 2nd Year, high Draft Pick presumably)

-Better Edge (Carl Lawson)

-Better LB (Mosely back)

-Better CB (presuming we sign Sherman post-draft and/or draft a CB)

-Better play from JD 2020 Draft Class (Hall at CB fully healthy, Zuninga at Edge second year, Perine at RB, Davis at Safety 2nd year, etc).

-Presumed upgrades at a number of positions (#23 pick, #34 pick at minimum should be upgrades).

Will we win a Super Bowl in 2021?  We gonna be #1 in Offense, #1 in Defense?  Probably not, lol. 🤣  And no one is saying we will or should.

Should we be able to expect a competitive team that is in every game and competes and should be around .500 or better?

Hell yes we should! 👍

 

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Yeah, sorry to break it to you.  Rookie head coach, rookie coordinators installing new systems on both sides of the ball with a rookie QB. There are just too many moving pieces here for everythin

thanks for the update.

Would you call me crazy if I said we're going to start the season 5-0?

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23 hours ago, mrcoops said:

We will certainly be pretty bad early in the season but, hopefully, can start to be competitive later in the year as the system and all the new players settle in - then be ready to be truly competitive from next year onwards.

Sort of like a Browns when they got Mayfield type of deal - bad early, then tough to play the following year.

Please don't  use Mayfield  as the bar. He isn't that good and they basically took the ball put of his hands last season.

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5 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

We had spent years focusing almost exclusively on defense and essentially ignoring offense for the most part and badly ignoring the offensive line.

I've stated many times that the Jets need to find on OL upgrade in the draft. Between #23 & #34, I'd like one of those OTs that could play RG this year and slip over to RT next. That's my ideal. 

With the other pick, though, they need the BAP. If that's a CB or Edge, so be it. Both big needs. You can say that OT is more valuable than Edge, but the NFL disagrees. The franchise tag number for a DE this year is $16M, CB is $15M, and OL is $13.7M. Oh, and RB is $8.6M, and TE is $9.6M. 

I have no problem with them going offense if that's where where the value is. WR is another premium position, and if JD likes a WR that high, he's got my blessing. But not a TE/RB/OG over a similarly graded Edge or CB. That's just a terrible idea. You can find starting caliber players at those positions every year in the middle rounds. You don't burn premium picks on non-premium positions just because the last two GMs drafted a lot of defense high. 

And where is all that defense drafted high? Other than QW, it's gone! It's not like there's a ton of talent on that side of the ball because the Jets drafted defense all the time, it's that the Jets drafted poorly no matter what position they were drafting. They need pieces on both sides of the ball. I'm excited about the new offense, and hope ZW is the ****, if that's who we pick up, but I'm equally excited about an aggressive 4-3 dee singularly focused on getting to the passer. We haven't had that since the Klecko/Gastineau days. Now more than ever, that's as critical a component to winning a championship as QB play, itself. 

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I agree with you, Slats. I don’t get why this is so hard for people to grasp. 
 

In one way, the team’s record doesn’t really mean anything this year. Rookie coach, rookie oc, rookie qb, etc etc. the Jets are six months removed from an almost historically bad season. Anyone expecting 8-10 wins is in for a real frustrating year. They may reach those numbers, but it’s the expectation that’s the issue for me. An above .500 record would be a meteoric rise. I don’t get how that can be anyone’s measuring stick. 
 

I think a failure of a season is 0-3 wins with most being uncompetitive and a successful season looks something like this: 6 wins, 6 competitive losses, 5 uncompetitive losses. That would be an improvement from last year and go a long way towards knowing that Saleh and his staff can get it done. Anything between is varying degrees of suck and good, and anything better is gravy. 
 

Any expectation of a top 10 defense and top 15 offense is silly, imo. Especially considering how many people want to draft nothing but offense this year. 
 

Super Bowl or you’ve-got-a-loser’s-mentality guys can go fly a kite. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, freestater said:

Just remember tho...there's no room for expecting improvement or competitiveness. We cant expect this team to win, not even after a decade of losing. Wave banners and cheer loudly for our next version of 4-12 scrubs! Yay!

Joe Douglas is the best.  Who needs wins when we have draft capital?

SAR I

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45 minutes ago, Biggs said:

With nothing more than slightly better coaching decisions on the defensive side of the ball we win 4 games last year.   The Oakland game and the New England game were defensive abominations by the coaching staff not the players.   There's another game this year.   We play the Jags, Eagles, Texans, Bengals, Carolina and New England twice next year.   We added starting edge and receiver talent in FA.  

Even though we are likely starting a rookie QB or a vet jag, it's hard to imagine getting worse QB play than what we got out of Darnold last year.  

I have no idea how this coaching staff is going to be.  I thought the Giants made a huge step last year simply on coaching and it's clear they had to make a move on their coaching staff during the season when Judge basically fired his OL coach.   Coaching is huge in the NFL.  We may actually have a top 10 NFL coaching staff.  That's a huge change if it's the case.  

I'm excited about the coaching staff, but they're all in new jobs. Has Mike LaFluer ever called the plays in a game? Will Saleh let Ulbrich run the defense and just be the head coach? I just think there's going to be a lot of growing into their new jobs. Throw in a rookie QB, and a lot of bumps in the road that first year look to be unavoidable. 

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10 hours ago, HighPitch said:

SAR hates Rush.

He thinks their lyrics are too mainstream and quite childish.

But if we all post how much we HATE rush for six straight months, there will be an old dude with a fly by night sticker on his leased BMW 

I don't even remember who Rush is.  It's true.

I'm an Apple Music streaming subscriber and years ago I told Siri that I hated Rush and from that moment forward no matter what playlist or streaming radio station I'm listening to not a single Rush song has played.  Gotta love technology.

SAR I

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28 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

So in other words, we will be seeing Zach is a bust threads shortly. 

No doubt in my mind. 

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14 minutes ago, slats said:

I'm excited about the coaching staff, but they're all in new jobs. Has Mike LaFluer ever called the plays in a game? Will Saleh let Ulbrich run the defense and just be the head coach? I just think there's going to be a lot of growing into their new jobs. Throw in a rookie QB, and a lot of bumps in the road that first year look to be unavoidable. 

All true but I like the look and I used Judge as an example of a rookie HC who made a difference in year 1.  

Warfish's post above had a great point.  We all pretty much discount Mosley and believe he adds nothing.  If Mosley comes back to the level he was at, he and Lawson could make a very significant difference in our D.   That idea is completely discounted but could be a very significant upgrade.

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7 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Once again I disagree with every word. 

We only need to look at our own history to see how wrong you are.

In normal situations I would agree that building a roster requires balance in drafting. I do not agree that EDGE is the second most important position in football. OT is more important and that has been shown over and over. 

This not a normal situation or a normal draft for the Jets

3 years ago we drafted our potential franchise QB in Sam. We had spent years focusing almost exclusively on defense and essentially ignoring offense for the most part and badly ignoring the offensive line. We had a mediocre OL at best, literally no playmakers (an UDFA being our best in RA) and on offense our highest drafted player was Brian Winters a 3rd round pick and JAG at best . But on defense we had 3 #1 Jets picks a #2 and a #3.

We draft Darnold. What do we do next? We follow your plan and draft "BAP". BTW Polian has many times debunked the concept of picking purely BAP in a draft. So we draft a DL at #2, a pass catching TE at 3, then back to defense for CB and DL and a throwaway pick on a RB at 6. We did nothing to address OL and got 1 mediocre playmaker.

So in the season Darnold has nobody really to throw to, suffers through a bad OL with Spencer Long at C, maybe the worst center in football. 

But surely we will help Sam in 2019, right. Well not even a little bit. Nope we do "BAP" again and of course once again "BAP" leads us to follow ignoring the offense with yet another DT in Q  at #1, then EDGE with Jachai Polite, a single project OT in the third and a overdrafted blocking TE in Wesco in the 4th then back to defense for linebacker

Sam has no no new weapons from the draft  and we go UDFA with Jonatthan Harrison at C (who was actually a big upgrade. the previous end of season with ) but not before we sign Kalil who fails horribly. We did sign Crowder at slot in FA which was good and way overpaid for Bell.

We proceed to have the worst OL in football history arguably and once again no weapons for Sam to throw to.

By 2020, everything falls apart. We even try to fix the OL drafting Becton and Clark, and Mims in the 2nd. But the OL is still horrible, Mims is injured all season and Darnold still has no weapons and basically collapses. We finish 2-14.

So now we draft a QB and still have one of the worst OL in the NFL. 

And your solution is to draft Wilson and then go back to drafting defense with our high picks like we did with Sam. It is madness. We HAVE to fix the OL and our higher picks need to be used to do that. We cannot ruin Zach like we did with Sam. Defense is completely secondary to fixing the offense and protecting Wilson,.

Meh, I think you're taking @slats saying draft BAP down the line too literally. He goes out of his way to say you don't take a TE over an EDGE (equally rated prospects), so position obviously takes precedence, and frankly, factors into what makes someone the BAP. 

You don't build an instant turnaround with draft picks all playing elite together as rookies. Nobody does. Nobody has. Let alone all on one side of the ball while fully ignoring the other because of some fantasy about that being the "right" way despite the lack of successful evidence.

The problem with Polite isn't that he was an EDGE prospect; it's that he sucked, and sucked so badly - and had such a poor attitude to go along with it - that it was easy to justify not including him on the final roster right after drafting him at the top of round 3. Not even as a reserve.

The point is, the Polite selection at #68 wouldn't have been any wiser if it was Josh Oliver, the TE that Jacksonville took at pick #69.

A round later, Arizona - with their shiny new #1 pick QB - took a mismatch-nightmare body WR, Hakeem Butler. Is there even one Cardinals fan who stills applaud the wisdom of drafting him over Maxx Crosby (3 picks later) because at least he was a pick on offense, and therefore that makes it smart. They waived this waste of a roster spot after his rookie year, while Oakland got 10 sacks & 4 FFs & 4 PDs from their rookie edge rusher. Since then Butler's been bouncing on & off practice squads as a TE-convert and Crosby is a dirt-cheap edge that'd cost $16MM/year to replace with a FA.

You're proceeding from the presumption of fact that multiple rookie OL is a given to be an immediate upgrade -- on a team with a rookie QB a first-year HC, a first-year OC, installing a new system, and ignoring that zb that takes time to mesh even for apt-fit veterans who've started elsewhere in such schemes for years. You're building on and extrapolating beyond an idea that's a false premise from the get-go, so the cliché is you're building a house of cards.

Just because they are more innately talented individually doesn't therefore mean they'll perform better individually - or as part of a group - as new-incoming rookies over every returning veteran. 

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9 minutes ago, freestater said:

Or cap space?

Cap Space is the devil.  No one wants to come here.  We can't spend the money because no one will take it.

It's why overpaying players we already developed like Jamal Adams or Robbie Anderson or Leonard Williams was actually the smarter move. 

But, shhh, don't say that.  No one wants to hear that.  It's all sunshine and flowers with Joe Douglas' amazing "negotiating skills".

SAR I

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5 minutes ago, Jet Life said:

How many wins is dumping that loser Adam Gase worth? At least 3 or 4?

I agree with this `100%!!!!

I mean this with all due respect, but two years ago when Darnold went down for awhile, that was the worst NFL football team I have ever seen!  Ever!

Far worse as posted out here than when Kotite was at the helm.

It is not just the wins in the ledger line that matters but the fans and organizational mental health that already are better......

So yea 3-4 wins more seems just about right to me.....  

 

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19 hours ago, SAR I said:

This is Year 3!  What's with you guys?  2017 and 2018 happened, they were announced rebuilding years.

 

With a different regime.

Quote

2019 happened too, Douglas was here the whole season, cut players, brought in players. 

No, he wasn't here for the whole season. He had nothing to do with the draft or free agency period.

This is his second off-season with the team and arguing otherwise is, at best, intellectually dishonest.

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18 minutes ago, Jet Life said:

How many wins is dumping that loser Adam Gase worth? At least 3 or 4?

Adam Gase.  HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHA.  Absolute clown.

Dumping Gase and that scrub Darnold in 1 offseason make it one of the top all time offseasons in jets history.

Thank you Joe Douglas!  Thank you!

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Given all the other changes going on, one higher-pick rookie starter to replace the weakest iOL link is plenty influx for week 1 starting. That is, if the goal is actually instant-improvement on the field rather than just theoretical instant-improvement on paper. If you want more than that for instant-improvement, then the solution is to grab a better upgrade in FA, not to start more OL rookies in a new system to block for a rookie QB (let alone with a rookie RB also left to pick up blitzes).

I think a lot of the things that caused last year's OL to be as bad as it was (particularly in the first parts of the season) are being glossed over as though they're insignificant. 

  • ZB OL with 5 new faces (4 new faces = 5 new faces, since they're all new to each other).
  • Limited training camp with distancing and other TC inefficiencies that covid brought (however understandable given the circumstances).
  • A bad QB with bad pocket presence (it's unknown whether Wilson's bad college habits will die quickly, or at all, but Darnold was terrible last year).
  • Missing WRs that made an already hesitant Darnold even more so, and while there were plenty of examples of them being wide open without a throw (or without a good throw), in Darnold's defense nobody likes having none of one's WR starters active for a couple games.
  • The offense being more complex in general last year.
  • The offense having a pittance of designed plays to the TEs and backs. Factor in those designed quick plays when looking up stats like percentage of dropbacks with a QB facing pressure; pressure that wouldn't be there if the ball was out of the QB's hands after <2 seconds on a designed toss to the flat or a short/quick route to the TE. The only one who saw regular targets, with a ybc/r under 11+ yards, was Crowder, and that wasn't nearly enough for that OL. Never mind how many more deep routes they ran when Darnold didn't throw it due to lack of time or his own hesitation. Even Herndon's targets were misleading, as they came in relative bunches early & late. But for a 10-game stretch from week 4-14 he saw 12 cumulative pass attempts go his way. Half those games without a single one, plus just 1 target (on Darnold's first pass attempt) vs Seattle.
  • A lot of pre-snap predictability based on personnel: if Gore was on the field, little worry about a pass going his way.
  • And more, but this is already long enough.

These will all be different this year, which would see OL improvement even if they made no OL starter changes. The most likely thing that'd get in the way Wilson being undisciplined in the pocket as a rookie.

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1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

No, he wasn't here for the whole season. He had nothing to do with the draft or free agency period.

This is his second off-season with the team and arguing otherwise is, at best, intellectually dishonest.

Douglas signed a few bust kickers and a few bust linemen in 2019, no?

And then he was given $4M and a clipboard to study the Jets roster, the other NFL rosters, and the NCAA rosters.  11 months to do nothing but prepare for 2020, 9 more months than any other NFL GM has ever gotten to prepare.  And.....<poof> 7-9 turns into 2-14.  To date, Joe Douglas' greatest deal was his own contract.

I think that's an honest assessment.

SAR I

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Adam Gase.  HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHA.  Absolute clown.

Dumping Gase and that scrub Darnold in 1 offseason make it one of the top all time offseasons in jets history.

Thank you Joe Douglas!  Thank you!

Gase and Darnold go 7-9.

Douglas gets rid of Jamal Adams, Robbie Anderson, Kelvin Beachum, Brian Winters, Steve McLendon, and Leonard Williams.  Replaces them with a single offensive lineman who seemingly can't stay healthy.

Gase and Darnold go 2-14.

Thank you Joe Douglas!  Thank you!

SAR I

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On 4/20/2021 at 6:16 AM, slats said:

Yeah, sorry to break it to you. 

Rookie head coach, rookie coordinators installing new systems on both sides of the ball with a rookie QB. There are just too many moving pieces here for everything to fall into place in the perfect way in their first year together. Hopefully Joe Douglas is the guy, Saleh turns out to be his watershed hire and Mike LaFluer is the first offensive coordinator the Jets ever had that isn't universally hated by the fanbase, and Zach Wilson (presumably) isn't just a franchise QB but a star - but it's just not going to come together that quickly.  None of this has to happen for the Jets to be a pretty good team. A team that is on the rise and a team other team don't nec. look forward to playing. Everyithing doen't have to fall in place right away. Zach doesn't have to come out of the gate as a 'star'. 

These expectations of 7 or more wins, top half offensive rankings... these are pipe dreams. I don't think its that crazy to think the Jets can win 7 games if JD hit on his draft picks and the coaching staff dramatically improves the play from last year (which is 100% the expectation on both sides of the ball). Not sure about the offense but I don't think its that crazy to think this defensive group can be in the top half of the NFL. Are you kidding me? With this roster and coaching- top half is the expectation. Lest we forget how awful every aspect of this team was under Gase. 

Also looking to upgrade everywhere on offense in this draft while ignoring the defense is not going to happen - and it shouldn't. You already have the rookie QB, very possibly one rookie OL, and if some fans here had their way a rookie RB, WR, TE, and a second OL, too. All in the name of supporting the rookie QB - but that's not support, that's instability! The rookie offensive coordinator already has way more than enough on his hands trying to establish a new offense while simultaneously getting a rookie QB prepared to start the season. Those are two huge jobs that, preferably, would've been done in separate years. I'm sure that was part of the idea of rolling it back with Sam, if that's what it came to. I don't really get this reasoning. Teams do this ALL THE TIME. Of course the Jets won't draft ALL offense. But if they DID go heavy on offense in the draft, a lot of those guys would not be starters. They would be role players or depth. It's not like everything on offense would hinge on a bunch of rookies. Even if we assume Zach ends up starting and they draft a plug and play O-lineman. After that, a WR, RB, TE- these would all be role players or depth pieces. 

Jets fans have become irrationally biased against the defense. It's still a team sport. I get all the defensive first round picks, the DTs and the safeties, I was there! But when Joe Douglas takes a QB at #2 this year, his first two first rounder's will've been offensive players, and the Jets will have gone offense in the first round three out of the last four years. This isn't year 49 of the rebuild, it's year two of JD's build and year one of the Saleh era. They're switching to an aggressive 4-3 zone defense that needs players, too. While Lafluer and the rookie QB are getting the offensive foundation built, wouldn't it be nice to see a nasty pass rush being developed on the other side of the ball? When's the last time we had that. Doesn't anyone realize that a defense that can stop the other team and get off the field helps the QB? Do you really want ZW throwing 40-50 times a game playing catch-up all day? If they take an Edge at #23, try just looking over the ledge instead of actually jumping. I don't claim to know a ton about X's and O's but there is no position thats just called Edge. You're either plaining the strong side DE or weak side DE, without getting into the LB position. The Jets have Lawson, Curry, JFM, Huff, Phillips, Zuniga as their DE's or 'Edge players'. Is it the best edge group in the NFL. Not really. But considering they have Q, Fat, Rankins, Shepherd- its pretty darn good. I mean its one of the biggest reasons (along with Saleh coming on board) to think this defense can be in the top half of the NFL.  Now, will they take an Edge? Will they take a defensive player early? They very well might. JD ha shown he will go after value when its there. The Jets also have a need at the LB position. Zaven Collins is a real potential pick at 23 if the O-linemen the Jets like start flying off the board really early. And frankly, I would not mind that one bit. But JD NEEDS to target O-line early- if not at 23 then at 34, if not at 34 then definitely at 66. 

I think the best we can hope for is a team that is clearly showing signs of getting better as the year goes on, but that zone blocking OL and zone coverage secondary are gonna take some time to gel. But then at the end of the year, maybe we can have some of the usual grumbling about "meaningless wins destroying our draft position," even though in a new administration's first year, those late season wins would not be meaningless at all. They would be program building. 

I'm optimistic about the future, looking forward to seeing some signs of life, but the growing pains -I suspect- are going to be visibly ugly for much of the year.   

Theres been a ton of replies so I'm sure I'm repeating a lot of peoples thoughts but frankly I disagree. See some of my notes above. We ARE going to be good this year. And it really depends on what you define as 'good'. Are we going to contend for the SB? No. Are we going to have a legit shot to make the playoffs? Probably not. Are we going to be significantly better than last year? Yes. Are teams going to look forward to playing us? Probably not. Are we going to improve our offense, defense, special teams? Most likely all three. Are we going to be a 7 or 8 win team. I could definitely see that. 

Depends a lot on health. Depends a lot on how we do in the draft. Depends a lot on how quickly guys gel and get used to the new system. But yes, assuming the team stays fairly healthy, guys eventually pick up the system/gel and at least the high draft picks contribute/make an impact- this team could very well be 'good'. Not great, not very good. But no longer a 'bad' team that gets blown out by backups. A team that is descent to 'good' depending on the day. Will we put up a few stinkers? Sure. But I look at this roster with the potential draft and FA additions after the draft and this team is looking pretty good for 2021.  

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3 hours ago, Leftylarry said:

Talent- wise, we still look to be a little behind the rest of the East this season, I think 2-4 against NE, Bills and Fins would be a victory, as long as we see continued development by the guys brought in last draft and potential from the guys we are bringing in.

Frankly, to add what we need to go on a 4-5 year run, wouldn’t be terrible to finish with another top 5 pick next draft , while we root for Seattle and Carolina to sheet the bed also.

we’ve waited so long, we can wait until 2022 and then be loaded for bear over the next 4-5 seasons with emerging talent and an inexpensive young QB.

i thought about this too. with all those picks if were going to have a not so good season thats it. then i hope we never pick under 20-25 again.

maybe JD thinks the same. hes loaded for 2022. after that i think we go back to having the normal amount of picks, thought i wouldn't be surprised if he trade someone like a QW down the road if he doesn't think he can sign him. 

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6 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Theres been a ton of replies so I'm sure I'm repeating a lot of peoples thoughts but frankly I disagree. See some of my notes above. We ARE going to be good this year. And it really depends on what you define as 'good'. Are we going to contend for the SB? No. Are we going to have a legit shot to make the playoffs? Probably not. Are we going to be significantly better than last year? Yes. Are teams going to look forward to playing us? Probably not. Are we going to improve our offense, defense, special teams? Most likely all three. Are we going to be a 7 or 8 win team. I could definitely see that. 

Depends a lot on health. Depends a lot on how we do in the draft. Depends a lot on how quickly guys gel and get used to the new system. But yes, assuming the team stays fairly healthy, guys eventually pick up the system/gel and at least the high draft picks contribute/make an impact- this team could very well be 'good'. Not great, not very good. But no longer a 'bad' team that gets blown out by backups. A team that is descent to 'good' depending on the day. Will we put up a few stinkers? Sure. But I look at this roster with the potential draft and FA additions after the draft and this team is looking pretty good for 2021.  

I expect the Jets to be better as the season goes on and hope that by the end of the year I've seen solid evidence that the team is clearly on the right track. They can do that and also finish in last place, once again, in the AFCe, and I suspect that that's exactly what they're going to do. 

I like that Joe Douglas has made a couple special teams signings. With Boyer as the only returning coordinator, they're going to be critical. 

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Meh, I think you're taking @slats saying draft BAP down the line too literally. He goes out of his way to say you don't take a TE over an EDGE (equally rated prospects), so position obviously takes precedence, and frankly, factors into what makes someone the BAP. 

You don't build an instant turnaround with draft picks all playing elite together as rookies. Nobody does. Nobody has. Let alone all on one side of the ball while fully ignoring the other because of some fantasy about that being the "right" way despite the lack of successful evidence.

The problem with Polite isn't that he was an EDGE prospect; it's that he sucked, and sucked so badly - and had such a poor attitude to go along with it - that it was easy to justify not including him on the final roster right after drafting him at the top of round 3. Not even as a reserve.

The point is, the Polite selection at #68 wouldn't have been any wiser if it was Josh Oliver, the TE that Jacksonville took at pick #69.

A round later, Arizona - with their shiny new #1 pick QB - took a mismatch-nightmare body WR, Hakeem Butler. Is there even one Cardinals fan who stills applaud the wisdom of drafting him over Maxx Crosby (3 picks later) because at least he was a pick on offense, and therefore that makes it smart. They waived this waste of a roster spot after his rookie year, while Oakland got 10 sacks & 4 FFs & 4 PDs from their rookie edge rusher. Since then Butler's been bouncing on & off practice squads as a TE-convert and Crosby is a dirt-cheap edge that'd cost $16MM/year to replace with a FA.

You're proceeding from the presumption of fact that multiple rookie OL is a given to be an immediate upgrade -- on a team with a rookie QB a first-year HC, a first-year OC, installing a new system, and ignoring that zb that takes time to mesh even for apt-fit veterans who've started elsewhere in such schemes for years. You're building on and extrapolating beyond an idea that's a false premise from the get-go, so the cliché is you're building a house of cards.

Just because they are more innately talented individually doesn't therefore mean they'll perform better individually - or as part of a group - as new-incoming rookies over every returning veteran. 

You guys actually both make solid points. Its not black and white. Clearly, just drafting offense won't magically fix your offense. You need to draft the right guys and you need to hit on your picks. Clearly you have to look at position as well as value (along with a slew of other things when considering a prospect- including fit and needs). 

BUT the fact remains. When you invest a high draft pick in a certain player, the assumption is he will make an impact. The assumption is he is at the top of your board and therefore is the most talented, best fitting, most needed, etc. player. So you have to wonder when a GM does not address the O-line/offense by drafting an O-lineman early when the O-line is CLEARLY a massive need. The fact is, the best/surest players still go early in the draft and the worst/riskiest/developmental players go late. 

JD has done a lot to try and turn this O-line around. He drafted Becton EARLY last year which is a major building block for this o-line. We will see if Clark pans out. I think Fant is underrated and has been noting but solid on the right side. McGovern has been underwhelming but we will if he is better in year 2. There are some veteran JAGs who can fight for the Guard spots but I guarantee you JD will target a plug and play O-lineman early in the draft to potentially take up one of those spots (Jenkins/W.Davis/C.Humphrey, etc.).  

I think when talking about the failures of addressing the O-line in the draft we really have to look at Macc more so than JD. He had a policy of finding good o-linemen later in draft and he failed. He simply wasn't able to produce. 

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

-Better Head Coach (Gase was the worst I've ever seen.)

-Better Offensive Coordinator (Did we even have an O-Co under Gase, really?)

-Better QB (We have to presume Wilson won't be dead last in the NFL, otherwise why would we dump Sam and draft Wilson, amirite?)

-Better at RB (No more feeding old Gore.)

-Better #1 WR (Davis over Perriman.)

-Better #2 WR (Mims healthy vs. missed most of season.)

-Not having a depth guy like Berrios be #2 in Catches at WR, lol.

-Better O-line (almost by default, Becton 2nd Year, high Draft Pick presumably)

-Better Edge (Carl Lawson)

-Better LB (Mosely back)

-Better CB (presuming we sign Sherman post-draft and/or draft a CB)

-Better play from JD 2020 Draft Class (Hall at CB fully healthy, Zuninga at Edge second year, Perine at RB, Davis at Safety 2nd year, etc).

-Presumed upgrades at a number of positions (#23 pick, #34 pick at minimum should be upgrades).

Will we win a Super Bowl in 2021?  We gonna be #1 in Offense, #1 in Defense?  Probably not, lol. 🤣  And no one is saying we will or should.

Should we be able to expect a competitive team that is in every game and competes and should be around .500 or better?

Hell yes we should! 👍

 

Yeah I'm not expecting a SB  - or even playoffs 1 & done - but with all that went wrong in 2019 with Darnold, Gase, etc. it shouldn't require a 2-year span to flop our way to a mere 8 wins (+/-1). There are some pretty lousy teams, with bad QBs and more, that still win 7-8 games (e.g. 2013 Jets). 

A lot of it will hinge on how Wilson plays out of the gate (ok, big duh), because as much as that's a long list of net improvements you made above, it's also a long list of new stuff all at once. 

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On 4/20/2021 at 9:53 AM, Philc1 said:

After 2 years.  And Mims was injured first half of the season. And almost all the free agent signings outside of Crowder were unmitigated disasters (Bell, Kalil, Perriman)

Douglas signed Bell?

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah I'm not expecting a SB  - or even playoffs 1 & done - but with all that went wrong in 2019 with Darnold, Gase, etc. it shouldn't require a 2-year span to flop our way to a mere 8 wins (+/-1). There are some pretty lousy teams, with bad QBs and more, that still win 7-8 games (e.g. 2013 Jets). 

A lot of it will hinge on how Wilson plays out of the gate (ok, big duh), because as much as that's a long list of net improvements you made above, it's also a long list of new stuff all at once. 

Lol, the majority of that list is basically, "it was so bad last year, it can't be worse. Right?" 

I've been a fan of this team for far too long to fall for that nonsense. 

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24 minutes ago, slats said:

Lol, the majority of that list is basically, "it was so bad last year, it can't be worse. Right?" 

I've been a fan of this team for far too long to fall for that nonsense. 

haha, fair enough

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3 hours ago, the Claw said:

I agree with you, Slats. I don’t get why this is so hard for people to grasp. 
 

In one way, the team’s record doesn’t really mean anything this year. Rookie coach, rookie oc, rookie qb, etc etc. the Jets are six months removed from an almost historically bad season. Anyone expecting 8-10 wins is in for a real frustrating year. They may reach those numbers, but it’s the expectation that’s the issue for me. An above .500 record would be a meteoric rise. I don’t get how that can be anyone’s measuring stick. 
 

I think a failure of a season is 0-3 wins with most being uncompetitive and a successful season looks something like this: 6 wins, 6 competitive losses, 5 uncompetitive losses. That would be an improvement from last year and go a long way towards knowing that Saleh and his staff can get it done. Anything between is varying degrees of suck and good, and anything better is gravy. 
 

Any expectation of a top 10 defense and top 15 offense is silly, imo. Especially considering how many people want to draft nothing but offense this year. 
 

Super Bowl or you’ve-got-a-loser’s-mentality guys can go fly a kite. 
 

 

Some times rookies are game changers.  

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