Sperm Edwards Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 5 hours ago, bitonti said: Warfish the Vegas total is 6 You're comfortable walking in the William Hill and putting a couple of hundred on over? Gfto bud they are going to be crap as usual Vegas lines are based on expected incoming betting, not expected outcome. The goal is to get 50% of the bets on either side, not predict the exact win total. When they can get half the bets going in each direction without having to move the lines, it's a perfect business with no risk. In our division, Miami's over/under was 6 last year, too. Bills at 8.5 was off by even more. Every year betting odds significantly underestimate a couple teams' win totals. Especially on the extremes (very low and very high expected win totals). If they truly believed a team would win 2-3 games, they're not setting the O/U at 3 unless they want to be gamblers themselves, seeing how nobody'd bet the under. Likewise if they really felt a few teams will win 13 games; no betting line is going to have multiple teams - probably not even one team - winning 13 or 14 games. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Warfish said: You're entitled to your opinion regarding gambling, my friend. ? It's not my opinion it's immanuel kant's 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 2 hours ago, RVAJet815 said: If they don't draft OL and give him some more talent, yes I agree. But If they do that, there's no reason why he can't be out there year one (notice I didn't say week one...). Again the negativity is well founded if and only if they do all the stupid stuff the previous administrations did. If they build around the QB, there's every reason to believe this kid can succeed. They already missed the window to improve their line Rookie linemen do not play great as rookies. Unless they are Quenton Nelson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAJet815 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, bitonti said: They already missed the window to improve their line Rookie linemen do not play great as rookies. Unless they are Quenton Nelson I disagree. And that's demonstrably false that only Nelson has done it, even in recent past. There were a handful in last year's class alone. There are several IOL that can walk in and upgrade GVR and Lewis right now. It's a matter of drafting them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Just now, RVAJet815 said: I disagree. And that's demonstrably false that only Nelson has done it, even in recent past. There were a handful in last year's class alone. There are several IOL that can walk in and upgrade GVR and Lewis right now. It's a matter of drafting them. Those players who can make the line better right away are on the board at 2 not 23 It's not as deep a class as it seems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, bitonti said: It's not my opinion it's immanuel kant's I hope you get the help you need, old friend. You can beat this gambling addiction. I believe in you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAJet815 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, bitonti said: Those players who can make the line better right away are on the board at 2 not 23 It's not as deep a class as it seems If you say so....I see 5 guys on the board who could start and be an upgrade right now. And quite a few others that are solid depth options. And we have a guy in Douglas who should know the difference. But If you'd prefer gloom and doom, be my guest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Warfish said: I hope you get the help you need, old friend. You can beat this gambling addiction. I believe in you. Betting against the Jets has become my lucrative coping mechanism 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Just now, RVAJet815 said: If you say so....I see 5 guys on the board who could start and be an upgrade right now. And quite a few others that are depth options. Names? Avt and Jenkins will be gone by 23 Depth options don't stop ZW from getting whamboozled The line needs impact players. The whole team does... Not depth options behind George Fant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAJet815 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, bitonti said: Names? Avt and Jenkins will be gone by 23 Depth options don't stop ZW from getting whamboozled The line needs impact players. The whole team does... Not depth options behind George Fant Avt may or may not. Same for Jenkins. Really like both of them and very good chance one or both will be around. Slater,Darrisaw could be gone...small chance they're not. Those guys are worthy of a small trade up. Huge fan of Leatherwood. And he'll absolutely be there. Maybe include Davis and Humphrey whuch could be R2 selections. Plus quite a few depth options for down the road (agree these should be in addition to *not instead of* the above) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Fleming Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 On 4/21/2021 at 9:21 AM, Warfish said: -Better Head Coach (Gase was the worst I've ever seen.) -Better Offensive Coordinator (Did we even have an O-Co under Gase, really?) -Better Offensive System (Shanny-style WCO > Gase Insanity) -Better QB (We have to presume Wilson won't be dead last in the NFL, otherwise why would we dump Sam and draft Wilson, amirite?) -Better at RB (No more feeding old Gore.) -Better #1 WR (Davis over Perriman.) -Better #2 WR (Mims healthy vs. missed most of season.) -Not having a depth guy like Berrios be #2 in Catches at WR, lol. -Better O-line (almost by default, Becton 2nd Year, high Draft Pick presumably) -Better Edge (Carl Lawson) -Better LB (Mosely back) -Better CB (presuming we sign Sherman post-draft and/or draft a CB) -Better play from JD 2020 Draft Class (Hall at CB fully healthy, Zuninga at Edge second year, Perine at RB, Davis at Safety 2nd year, etc). -Presumed upgrades at a number of positions (#23 pick, #34 pick at minimum should be upgrades). Will we win a Super Bowl in 2021? We gonna be #1 in Offense, #1 in Defense? Probably not, lol. ? And no one is saying we will or should. Should we be able to expect a competitive team that is in every game and competes and should be around .500 or better? Hell yes we should! ? Promise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, bitonti said: Betting against the Jets has become my lucrative coping mechanism Mine is Alcoholism. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 hour ago, RVAJet815 said: Avt may or may not. Same for Jenkins. Really like both of them and very good chance one or both will be around. Slater,Darrisaw could be gone...small chance they're not. Those guys are worthy of a small trade up. Huge fan of Leatherwood. And he'll absolutely be there. Maybe include Davis and Humphrey whuch could be R2 selections. Plus quite a few depth options for down the road (agree these should be in addition to *not instead of* the above) Leatherwood is a puss Wyatt Davis sux I like creed Humphrey tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 45 minutes ago, Warfish said: Mine is Alcoholism. How about this I won't try to solve your vice if you don't try to solve mine ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 hour ago, bitonti said: Not depth options behind George Fant I just remembered Chuma Edoga is still in the NFL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, T0mShane said: I just remembered Chuma Edoga is still in the NFL Look closely at the schedule. Jags, Bengals, Saints, Eagles, and one against a division foe are expected home wins. That's 5. Broncos, Texans, Panthers, and one against a division foe are expected road wins. That's 4. That's 9 games we should be able to win. Last year we pulled some big upsets against playoff teams, perhaps we can take a team like the Bills or Colts too. Saleh needs to get to 8 wins to better Gase and his "2019 was an easy schedule" season. That's not an unreasonable expectation. Gase sucked so bad. SAR I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 hour ago, bitonti said: How about this I won't try to solve your vice if you don't try to solve mine ? Lets talk about it over some drinks? ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 52 minutes ago, SAR I said: Gase sucked so bad. SAR I Saving for posterity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Warfish said: Lets talk about it over some drinks? ? You bet ?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc1 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 On 4/22/2021 at 11:13 PM, T0mShane said: I just remembered Chuma Edoga is still in the NFL Stop insulting the guy who will be our starting Left Tackle for 4-5 games next season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc1 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 On 4/22/2021 at 9:25 PM, bitonti said: Names? Avt and Jenkins will be gone by 23 Depth options don't stop ZW from getting whamboozled The line needs impact players. The whole team does... Not depth options behind George Fant The people who know everything are saying Wilson is already better than Aaron Rodgers so we don’t need an offensive line or receivers 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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