I strongly believe Zach Wilson is being drastically overrated because of the Mahomes effect.

[HamBilly]

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

[sec101row23]

This should go well. 

[Peace Frog]

Good thing our GM is a real GM and isn’t looking at draft guides written by hacks. 

How draft gurus or internet GM-posers or fans rate players...does...not...matter. 

[Zachtomims47]

Thanks. I'll let Douglas know.

[BroadwayRay]

Welcome to the board! I thought I'd have the honor of giving you your first thumbs down.

[RVAJet815]

So much confirmation bias here. And the same old narrative that's been brought up time and time again.

[Joe W. Namath]

I strongly believe Zach Wilson is NOT being drastically overrated because of the Mahomes effect.

[The Crusher]

11 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

Well said HAMbilly. Now say it again, just slower. 

[slats]

I mildly believe it. I guess we’ll find out. 

[freestater]

Just now, The Crusher said:

Well said HAMbilly. Now say it again, just slower. 

...and dont break eye contact 

[Jackie Treehorn]

The gif that keeps on giving...

[freestater]

Big thank you to the OP. At last. Theres finally a thread to discuss the drafting of Zach Wilson. 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

I can't make heads or tails of the logic of this post. A lot of straw men being propped up to be knocked down. In any case, what are Wilson's "clear flaws?"

[Sperm Edwards]

Could very well be. 

Truth is we don't need him to be the best QB or even top 5 (however much I'd welcome it). 

He just needs to be good enough to occasionally lift the team, and not crap the bed regularly between those lifts, for a QB to be good enough for a team to be champions.

I will say a significant part of the Mahomes cast in KC - like his OL - is insanely overlooked and overrated. Most of KC's offensive linemen suck ass. 4/5 of their line were backup-level guys most of the year. Last year it was 3/5 that way, and his back(s) were nothing special themselves. 

This "Mahomes Effect" has happened plenty, with guys getting hyped after wow'ing at the combine. Most of the time it doesn't work out, but then most of the time the rest - the ones whose stock didn't suddenly skyrocket - don't work out either. Basically most QBs don't work out, and with the added caveat that it's harder to predict long term success when the body of work in college is more limited. 

Hopefully he works out, because it sure looks like we're drafting him. 

[The Crusher]

5 minutes ago, freestater said:

...and dont break eye contact 

Oh, so good!

[JetsFanShawn]

3 minutes ago, freestater said:

Big thank you to the OP. At last. Theres finally a thread to discuss the drafting of Zach Wilson. 

we have to see im with you man hes probley not all that probley in his 2nd yeaer he will show something they need so help on d and around the qb.

[jeremy2020]

The best parts of Mahomes and Allen's game isn't even their arm strength or mobility. Mahomes and last season Allen are able to read defenses and have total command of the field pre and post snap. Watch both of them in the pocket and how they just slide over. Pressure doesn't matter to them. Watch how they look guys off on their throws, make pre-snap adjustments, communicate and watch them move laterally then reset when they throw.

This is the stuff that has people hopeful that Wilson will be great. Yes, they both have cannon arms which is nice, but Wilson's arm is not a noodle so so it shouldn't be a problem. 

Now I'll give you that Mahomes and Allen had a lot of 'dropped ints' (regardless of the validity of that stat) which may have been helped by the strength of their arms which their own receivers say that it takes some time to get used to catching those balls. Maybe Wilson's arm isn't strong enough for that, but I'd say it's a secondary concern and not a reason to bail out on drafting him. 

[Morrissey]

People strongly believe a lot of odd things.. such is life

[BROOKLYN JET]

Thanks Ham, The 98 reference was a good one. That team definitely overachieved big time.

[IndianaJet]

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

@JetsFanShawn 

I need your take on this topic. 

[HawkeyeJet]

I think Wilson is being overrated by some and underrated by some.  I'm probably in the party that underrates him.

Scouting QBs is hard. The thing is, for ever super "toolsy" QB like Mahomes that pans out, there is at least 1 that hasn't.  Also, there are plenty of QBs who have succeed without eye popping "arm talent" or "escapability" etc 

In my opinion people get too caught up in the physical tools.  Any QB selected in the 1st round of the draft has the physical tools to be great.  Patrick Mahomes isn't great because of his physical tools alone.  He's great because he's got the mental intangibles that you really can't measure.  For example, lots of talk about Justin Fieldss "processing" speed being an issue.  That's one of those intangibles things that make QBs good, but I don't think people can really measure accurately based off college tape.  I don't recall exactly, but I would bet my bottom dollar a big part about the Mahomes evaluation back then was the mental part of the equation.

Zach Wilson has the physical tools to be a superstar.  So did Sam Darnold.  So did Johnny Manziel.  So did lots of guys.  There will be 3 things more important to his success than any physical traits he possesses.  1).  Mental acumen for the position.  2).  Coaching development.  3.). Supporting talent.

 

[Skeet Ulrich]

K.

[pdxgreen]

I strongly believe that it's around seven days till the draft.  

[freestater]

10 minutes ago, JetsFanShawn said:

we have to see im with you man hes probley not all that probley in his 2nd yeaer he will show something they need so help on d and around the qb.

Couldn't have said that better myself. 

[HamBilly]

11 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

I can't make heads or tails of the logic of this post. A lot of straw men being propped up to be knocked down. In any case, what are Wilson's "clear flaws?"

He struggles with processing his reads. He often misses the right read, and ends up making a riskier play because he missed the right read. He got away with this because his O-line was just dominant so it gave him time even when he missed his reads.

He underthrows a lot of deep balls turning them into 50/50 balls.

He is a 1 year wonder

Many of his highlight throws would be considered bad decisions at the next level.

He struggled to play within structure at times but wasn't punished because his teams were vastly more talented.

He didn't face NFL style pressure often because of his dominant line.

 

Missing easy reads and little exposure to pressure is a recipe for trouble in the NFL.

[Beerfish]

The fancy schmancy throw at all arm angles, sidearm stuff is wow stuff from guys like mahoomes or rogers but it is not what whats them good overall and that kind of thing is not going to be what makes or breaks zach wilson.

[ToonforPrez]

20 minutes ago, freestater said:

Big thank you to the OP. At last. Theres finally a thread to discuss the drafting of Zach Wilson. 

Didn't it just make the rest of the day fantastic @freestater !! I mean what is this the 400th thread on Wilson and how he is too short and looks like a beta male haha. 

[JiFapono]

[kdels62]

I’m fairly sure this is JiF.

[freestater]

7 minutes ago, ToonforPrez said:

Didn't it just make the rest of the day fantastic @freestater !! I mean what is this the 400th thread on Wilson and how he is too short and looks like a beta male haha. 

 

3 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

[Tranquilo]

1 minute ago, freestater said:

 

[jetstream23]

11 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I think Wilson is being overrated by some and underrated by some.  I'm probably in the party that underrates him.

Scouting QBs is hard. The thing is, for ever super "toolsy" QB like Mahomes that pans out, there is at least 1 that hasn't.  Also, there are plenty of QBs who have succeed without eye popping "arm talent" or "escapability" etc 

In my opinion people get too caught up in the physical tools.  Any QB selected in the 1st round of the draft has the physical tools to be great.  Patrick Mahomes isn't great because of his physical tools alone.  He's great because he's got the mental intangibles that you really can't measure.  For example, lots of talk about Justin Fieldss "processing" speed being an issue.  That's one of those intangibles things that make QBs good, but I don't think people can really measure accurately based off college tape.  I don't recall exactly, but I would bet my bottom dollar a big part about the Mahomes evaluation back then was the mental part of the equation.

Zach Wilson has the physical tools to be a superstar.  So did Sam Darnold.  So did Johnny Manziel.  So did lots of guys.  There will be 3 things more important to his success than any physical traits he possesses.  1).  Mental acumen for the position.  2).  Coaching development.  3.). Supporting talent.

 

IMO the single most important trait that evaluators have a hard time with is the QB's ability between the ears.  Can he understand and quickly diagnose what is happening so that he makes the right decision?  Arm strength, running ability, arm talent, etc. is fairly easy to assess and compare.  And, we see all both during the college season and at Pro Days the kinds of physical throws the prospect can make.  What we don't and can't see is whether (and how well) that prospect can adapt to the kinds of defensive schemes he'll see from Bill Belichick, the kind of coverage he'll see from Jalen Ramsey, the kind of pressure and speed he'll feel from Nick Bosa.  The only way to test for that is in Week 1 of the NFL season unfortunately.  Understand, decide, execute... in about 2.5 seconds.

[Tranquilo]

[fullblast]

This entire QB class is being overrated because of the Trevor Lawrence effect. Every QB needy team that doesn’t have the #1 pick wants to believe their own Trevor Lawrence is also waiting for them on Thursday.