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I strongly believe Zach Wilson is being drastically overrated because of the Mahomes effect.


HamBilly
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I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

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The best parts of Mahomes and Allen's game isn't even their arm strength or mobility. Mahomes and last season Allen are able to read defenses and have total command of the field pre and post snap. Watch both of them in the pocket and how they just slide over. Pressure doesn't matter to them. Watch how they look guys off on their throws, make pre-snap adjustments, communicate and watch them move laterally then reset when they throw.

This is the stuff that has people hopeful that Wilson will be great. Yes, they both have cannon arms which is nice, but Wilson's arm is not a noodle so so it shouldn't be a problem. 

Now I'll give you that Mahomes and Allen had a lot of 'dropped ints' (regardless of the validity of that stat) which may have been helped by the strength of their arms which their own receivers say that it takes some time to get used to catching those balls. Maybe Wilson's arm isn't strong enough for that, but I'd say it's a secondary concern and not a reason to bail out on drafting him. 

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11 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

I can't make heads or tails of the logic of this post. A lot of straw men being propped up to be knocked down. In any case, what are Wilson's "clear flaws?"

He struggles with processing his reads. He often misses the right read, and ends up making a riskier play because he missed the right read. He got away with this because his O-line was just dominant so it gave him time even when he missed his reads.

He underthrows a lot of deep balls turning them into 50/50 balls.

He is a 1 year wonder

Many of his highlight throws would be considered bad decisions at the next level.

He struggled to play within structure at times but wasn't punished because his teams were vastly more talented.

He didn't face NFL style pressure often because of his dominant line.

 

Missing easy reads and little exposure to pressure is a recipe for trouble in the NFL.

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