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I strongly believe Zach Wilson is being drastically overrated because of the Mahomes effect.


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49 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

Thank God Joe is in charge and not  you!

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I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control. Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bi

Big thank you to the OP. At last. Theres finally a thread to discuss the drafting of Zach Wilson. 

Welcome to the board! I thought I'd have the honor of giving you your first thumbs down.

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8 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Correction -- he was being massively overhyped and overrated. 

Now that it's clear he's going to the Jets everyone in the media is saying he's going to bust.

Yep, it's already happening

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10 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I haven't seen one.

People get so worked up over any positive words that they begin to create strawmen.

"IF YOU LOVE ZACH WILSON SO MUCH WHY DONT YOU MARRY HIM"

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35 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I think Wilson is being overrated by some and underrated by some.  I'm probably in the party that underrates him.

Scouting QBs is hard. The thing is, for ever super "toolsy" QB like Mahomes that pans out, there is at least 1 that hasn't.  Also, there are plenty of QBs who have succeed without eye popping "arm talent" or "escapability" etc 

In my opinion people get too caught up in the physical tools.  Any QB selected in the 1st round of the draft has the physical tools to be great.  Patrick Mahomes isn't great because of his physical tools alone.  He's great because he's got the mental intangibles that you really can't measure.  For example, lots of talk about Justin Fieldss "processing" speed being an issue.  That's one of those intangibles things that make QBs good, but I don't think people can really measure accurately based off college tape.  I don't recall exactly, but I would bet my bottom dollar a big part about the Mahomes evaluation back then was the mental part of the equation.

Zach Wilson has the physical tools to be a superstar.  So did Sam Darnold.  So did Johnny Manziel.  So did lots of guys.  There will be 3 things more important to his success than any physical traits he possesses.  1).  Mental acumen for the position.  2).  Coaching development.  3.). Supporting talent.

 

Good post, the biggest knock on Mahomes iirc was largely about the offense he was playing in and how so few QB’s in those systems ever succeeded as pro’s (not too dissimilar to the knocks on Allen but for totally different reasons). Those guys with the video game numbers that played for Houston or Texas Tech(or even Geno playing for Dana Holgersen at WVU) weren’t playing in “pro concepts” or “pro-style” offenses, or at least that was the argument often cited....think Andre Ware, David Klingler etc

Before Mahomes that was largely true but more and more the NFL seems to be shifting away from the traditional “pro-style” offense and increasingly towards those hybrid ‘spread’ systems that college coaches have been running for years that rack up huge numbers but somewhat mask the true ability of a QB(or indeed any other player in that system, it works for WR’s and OL too)

I realise I am oversimplifying here but that shift towards those systems in the NFL (Kingsbury at AZ) has probably helped but it also doesn’t help in the evaluation process because just because you played in a ‘spread’ or ‘air raid’ or ‘RPO’ doesn’t mean you don’t have the mental ability to process once you get to the NFL.

It’s so hard to tell with these guys because what they are running somewhat masks their true skill set and ability to translate to the NFL. Just seeing a QB take snaps under centre and dropping back or executing a traditional play action pass comes as a shock, and I personally like that about Wilson, but realise that alone doesn’t indicate whether or not he has what it takes to translate his success to Sunday’s.

This all comes back to the overriding principle for sustained success in the NFL that no QB alone, no matter how great, can win in the NFL (see Watson). It remains a team game, the QB is clearly the pivotal position and needs to able to elevate the talent around them, and finding a great one clearly helps....but if your OL can’t block, your WR can’t catch and your D can’t stop the opposing team from scoring then you are just another 4-12 also ran.

To paraphrase Lance Armstrong(sort of)....it’s not just about the QB

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If a guy is said to have similar talents to the two best QB's in the NFL, I don't see how that's overrated. There's a clear correlation between guys who play like that and widespread NFL success. 

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It doesn't matter if he is been over hyped because of the mahomes effect anymore, all that matters now is that Wilson is give the same opportunities to succeed that Mahomes got like great coaching, good offensive pieces, a reliable defence. 

I'm not a Wilson fan but I believe most level headed QBs can be successful in the NFL if they are put in the right situation do do so.

It's up to Douglas to make Wilson a good QB.

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1 hour ago, HamBilly said:

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Except it is

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I dont believe the offense will be a carbon copy of Shannahan's offense but obviously there will a lot of similar concepts. It works best with a QB who can get outside the pocket and throw and a guy who can step up and throw deep. He fits the mold of what makes the offense works so they are picking the best system fit for them while resetting the QB contract clock.

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My wife kind of devastated me a while back when she asked me “so you know no matter how much you think you won’t control the outcome of what the team does or how it performs, right?” 
 

sad day. 

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48 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

The best parts of Mahomes and Allen's game isn't even their arm strength or mobility. Mahomes and last season Allen are able to read defenses and have total command of the field pre and post snap. Watch both of them in the pocket and how they just slide over. Pressure doesn't matter to them. Watch how they look guys off on their throws, make pre-snap adjustments, communicate and watch them move laterally then reset when they throw.

This is the stuff that has people hopeful that Wilson will be great. Yes, they both have cannon arms which is nice, but Wilson's arm is not a noodle so so it shouldn't be a problem. 

Now I'll give you that Mahomes and Allen had a lot of 'dropped ints' (regardless of the validity of that stat) which may have been helped by the strength of their arms which their own receivers say that it takes some time to get used to catching those balls. Maybe Wilson's arm isn't strong enough for that, but I'd say it's a secondary concern and not a reason to bail out on drafting him. 

Their arm strength allows them to get away with the throws they attempt that mere mortal QB don’t even think about. Without that arm strength you are looking at Darnold/Baker type QBs.

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39 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

He struggles with processing his reads. He often misses the right read, and ends up making a riskier play because he missed the right read. He got away with this because his O-line was just dominant so it gave him time even when he missed his reads.

He underthrows a lot of deep balls turning them into 50/50 balls.

He is a 1 year wonder

Many of his highlight throws would be considered bad decisions at the next level.

He struggled to play within structure at times but wasn't punished because his teams were vastly more talented.

He didn't face NFL style pressure often because of his dominant line.

 

Missing easy reads and little exposure to pressure is a recipe for trouble in the NFL.

Which book of cliches did you read before posting this.

Or did you confuse it with the Justin Fields breakdown, because other than the 1 year wonder throw away line, this is exactly what is said about Fields, not Wilson.

So, answer this, which banned bills fan are you trying stirring it up?

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10 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

That “ functional franchise “ is dying to get their hands on Wilson.  They would trade anything to get to number 2

Define what is a functional franchise please I'm doing a report on sh*tty NFL teams over the past 50 years.

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3 minutes ago, Wit said:

My wife kind of devastated me a while back when she asked me “so you know no matter how much you think you won’t control the outcome of what the team does or how it performs, right?” 
 

sad day. 

Smart woman

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58 minutes ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

I can't make heads or tails of the logic of this post. A lot of straw men being propped up to be knocked down. In any case, what are Wilson's "clear flaws?"

He doesn't have a good swim technique to rush the passer? Other than that, nada. He is going to bring us golden championship statues. 

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6 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Their arm strength allows them to get away with the throws they attempt that mere mortal QB don’t even think about. Without that arm strength you are looking at Darnold/Baker type QBs.

Accuracy is more important. That's why Josh Allen sucked the first two years. He improved his accuracy dramatically last year.

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28 minutes ago, fullblast said:

This entire QB class is being overrated because of the Trevor Lawrence effect. Every QB needy team that doesn’t have the #1 pick wants to believe their own Trevor Lawrence is also waiting for them on Thursday.

Yes and at the same time it’s likely he ends up not being the best QB in the draft. Somebody gets lucky the rest don’t. 

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8 minutes ago, Wit said:

My wife kind of devastated me a while back when she asked me “so you know no matter how much you think you won’t control the outcome of what the team does or how it performs, right?” 
 

sad day. 

Wrong.  Do you know how many FGs I've made miss wide because I'm at home blowing at the TV?

Fans do control the outome of games.  

Also, bad fans cause losing.

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8 minutes ago, ToonforPrez said:

Define what is a functional franchise please I'm doing a report on sh*tty NFL teams over the past 50 years.

No disrespect. Without punctuation, I’m not good at interpretation 

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Just now, HamBilly said:

Wilson's arm is not is the same tier as any of those QB.

 

In terms of ball placement from any angle and any part of the field, it's there. I don't think brute arm strength matters as much as you think because Josh Allen stunk until he improved his accuracy. 

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There is no "Mahomes effect." People are always comparing QB prospects to NFL QBs. The reason Wilson vaulted up the draft boards is because he lit it up in 2020. Some view it as an aberration. Others view it as a sign of growth and better things to come. He's the #2 QB on a majority of NFL draft boards because the latter is the prevailing opinion.

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20 minutes ago, Grandy said:

If a guy is said to have similar talents to the two best QB's in the NFL, I don't see how that's overrated. There's a clear correlation between guys who play like that and widespread NFL success. 

His talent is similar but lesser. Lesser doesn't always translate. Wilson does everything worse than Mahomes as a college prospect, but because Mahomes was so successful, WIlson is being looked upon higher than Mahomes ever was as a prospect.

It's not like the Justin Fields/Cam Newton comparison. Fields is slightly smaller, but he is also faster, which makes him unique.

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19 minutes ago, Bay Ridge Jet said:

I dont believe the offense will be a carbon copy of Shannahan's offense but obviously there will a lot of similar concepts. It works best with a QB who can get outside the pocket and throw and a guy who can step up and throw deep. He fits the mold of what makes the offense works so they are picking the best system fit for them while resetting the QB contract clock.

People keep on repeating this, but when is the last time Shannahan had a mobile QB? Kirk, Ryan, and Garrapolo were his last 3 QBs. Also all the rumors suggest they want Mac Jones, who is not very mobile either.

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39 minutes ago, fullblast said:

This entire QB class is being overrated because of the Trevor Lawrence effect. Every QB needy team that doesn’t have the #1 pick wants to believe their own Trevor Lawrence is also waiting for them on Thursday.

It has nothing to do with Trevor Lawrence. 

It has more to do with NFL teams realizing that hitting on a QB is FAR more valuable than hitting on a DT. So even if Wilson/Fields have only a 20pct chance of being great, they are still far more worth the top pick over a sure thing at Safety or DT. 

So when you have QBs like Fields and Wilson that "look the part" teams will take them at 2/3. It's why guys like Herbert and Tua went high last year. Herbert was EXTREMELEY inconsistent in college. You would have hated  him also. 

So for every Daniel  Jones and Josh Rosen, there are a handful of Herbert's and Josh Allens. Teams will take those chances. 

 

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Honestly, I have some serious reservations about Wilson, but if the Jets pick him, I will be behind him 100%.  I hold enthusiasm because most of us thought Darnold was our franchise QB that would bring us to the promise land for many many years.

Biggest reason I’m more optimistic than normal is the coaching staff.  I do believe we have the best staff in a long time.

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1 hour ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

You are right .... and you are about to get roasted. 

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