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I strongly believe Zach Wilson is being drastically overrated because of the Mahomes effect.


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I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control. Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bi

Big thank you to the OP. At last. Theres finally a thread to discuss the drafting of Zach Wilson. 

Welcome to the board! I thought I'd have the honor of giving you your first thumbs down.

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1 hour ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

how about...

"I strongly believe Josh Allen is being drastically overrated because of the Wentz effect."

i can provide more examples. means nothing.

there are a lot of smart football people making these evaluations. "effect" has nothing to do with it.

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28 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Which book of cliches did you read before posting this.

Or did you confuse it with the Justin Fields breakdown, because other than the 1 year wonder throw away line, this is exactly what is said about Fields, not Wilson.

So, answer this, which banned bills fan are you trying stirring it up?

I've actually watched film analysis on him unlike many on here who just watched the highlights.

His O-line was statistically amazing.

His strength of schedule was bad.

The film shows that he often threw 50/50 balls.

The film shows he would miss easy reads often.

 

Zach Wilson and Justin Fields feels like Mitch Trubisky/Watson all over again. 

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10 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

The film shows that he often threw 50/50 balls.

Do you even know what a 50/50 ball is? It means he threw it up for grabs and the defender and receiver each had an equal chance of catching it. Yet he had a season completion percentage of over 70%. And his receivers were nothing special. So you're saying he was the most incredibly lucky QB in the universe?

10 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

The film shows he would miss easy reads often.

I get it. You saw some YouTube videos that showed some clips of Wilson missing easy reads. So to you that means he did it "often." Great analysis. Fact is, all the top QBs in this draft missed reads last year. That's what young QBs do.

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39 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

Wilson's arm is not is the same tier as any of those QB.

 

Yes it is.

Sorry

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

I will say a significant part of the Mahomes cast in KC - like his OL - is insanely overlooked and overrated. Most of KC's offensive linemen suck ass. 4/5 of their line were backup-level guys most of the year. Last year it was 3/5 that way, and his back(s) were nothing special themselves. 

When the KC chiefs had 1 overall pick Eric fisher and all pro Schwartz at tackle they win a super bowl 

When they had Mike remmers and Andrew Wylie at tackle they got smoked 

The chiefs are an example of a team that got unlucky with injury not a team that did not need linemen

They lost the super bowl due to a lack of lineman 

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20 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

I've actually watched film analysis on him unlike many on here who just watched the highlights.

His O-line was statistically amazing.

His strength of schedule was bad.

The film shows that he often threw 50/50 balls.

The film shows he would miss easy reads often.

 

Zach Wilson and Justin Fields feels like Mitch Trubisky/Watson all over again. 

The OL was what every top college QB had

His arm strength and arm talent is elite

These so called 50/50 balls were somehow completed to 2nd level WRs

Film shows he passes on easy reads for the homer ball, hes got a gunslinger attitude

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, HamBilly said:

His talent is similar but lesser. Lesser doesn't always translate. Wilson does everything worse than Mahomes as a college prospect, but because Mahomes was so successful, WIlson is being looked upon higher than Mahomes ever was as a prospect.

It's not like the Justin Fields/Cam Newton comparison. Fields is slightly smaller, but he is also faster, which makes him unique.

And Cam broke down after 5 or so years.

While being bigger.  Like Dante Culpepper.  Both at 265 lbs

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5 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The OL was what every top college QB had

His arm strength and arm talent is elite

These so called 50/50 balls were somehow completed to 2nd level WRs

Film shows he passes on easy reads for the homer ball, hes got a gunslinger attitude

 

 

 

I think you’re understating the quality of his OL. There’s some insane stat about his first maybe four games or so, he wasn’t touched. Much easier to hunt those homer balls and make pretty throws when you’re in clean pockets all game. That won’t translate at all.

The other one that came out recently was showing percentiles for completion percentage and on target percentage under various scenarios. Completion percentage percentile was always higher than on target percentage percentile. I don’t think many of his throws were 50/50 balls either but his WR’s didn’t hurt him any.

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2 hours ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

I’m actually with you. Not down on him but the hype is over orchestrated. Maybe he’ll be really good but same with the other top 3-4 QBs. I don’t see a dividing factor in skill set or play. There’s Lawrence and then the next 3-4 guys. Oh well. Maybe we’ll just get lucky for once 

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27 minutes ago, bitonti said:

When the KC chiefs had 1 overall pick Eric fisher and all pro Schwartz at tackle they win a super bowl 

When they had Mike remmers and Andrew Wylie at tackle they got smoked 

The chiefs are an example of a team that got unlucky with injury not a team that did not need linemen

They lost the super bowl due to a lack of lineman 

KC's interior line hasn't been good in years. That's 3/5 of their line (3 in a row at that). And it became 4/5 of their line being bleh after Schwartz went down barely 5 minutes into their 6th game. But good to know you now think 2 above-average starters and 3 scrubs = a good OL. 

After Schwartz was on IR, during the regular season, Mahomes put on a passing clinic against those same Bucs despite just 1 good starting offensive lineman: Fisher and no one else. FFS with those 4 borderline-starter linemen they won 12 straight games up to the Super Bowl (excluding week 17 when they rested their starters, most notably benching Mahomes for Chad Henne).

They only got smoked by Tampa when it was 5 of 5 crap on their line. They were fine, usually putting up >30ppg, with 4 of 5 below-average offensive linemen.

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

KC's interior line hasn't been good in years. That's 3/5 of their line (3 in a row at that). And it became 4/5 of their line being bleh after Schwartz went down barely 5 minutes into their 6th game.

After Schwartz was on IR, during the regular season, Mahomes put on a passing clinic against those same Bucs despite just 1 good starting offensive lineman: Fisher and no one else. FFS with those 4 borderline-starter linemen they won 12 straight games up to the Super Bowl (excluding week 17 when they rested their starters, most notably benching Mahomes for Chad Henne).

They only got smoked by Tampa when it was 5 of 5 crap on their line. They were fine, usually putting up >30ppg, with 4 of 5 below-average offensive linemen.

Yeah like who cares about the guards 

Teams find guards 

NFL offensive line most valuable players are the tackles 

In my grading system I count tackles 2x guards and centers 1.5x guards 

And what is KC going to do at 31? Hope Sam cosmi makes it 

 

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1 hour ago, legler82 said:

Their arm strength allows them to get away with the throws they attempt that mere mortal QB don’t even think about. Without that arm strength you are looking at Darnold/Baker type QBs.

Neither of those QB are able to recognize that they can't make those throws. I have to disagree that the difference between Darnold and Mahomes is simply arm strength.

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59 minutes ago, derp said:

I think you’re understating the quality of his OL. There’s some insane stat about his first maybe four games or so, he wasn’t touched. Much easier to hunt those homer balls and make pretty throws when you’re in clean pockets all game. That won’t translate at all.

The other one that came out recently was showing percentiles for completion percentage and on target percentage under various scenarios. Completion percentage percentile was always higher than on target percentage percentile. I don’t think many of his throws were 50/50 balls either but his WR’s didn’t hurt him any.

I'd love to see proof that he wasnt touched through 4 games

And to my point, they all play from relatively clean pockets.  

I love how were now making excuses for all the good throws he made 

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3 hours ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

What, Me Worry?

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14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Yeah like who cares about the guards 

Teams find guards 

NFL offensive line most valuable players are the tackles 

In my grading system I count tackles 2x guards and centers 1.5x guards 

 

You must be joking.

Well I'll tuck this away for the next time you flip-flop again. It's good to know the same person who advocates for guards to get drafted inside the top 10 picks likes to move the goalposts like this. So now it's that all a team needs are 2 tackles and the other 3 can be scrubs, and that's an excellent OL.

Also the numbers say the opposite anyway, seeing how the great George Fant is the 6th-highest paid RT in the NFL. Because they're the most important or something. 

Your grading system, lol. Your grading system has no value. Literally the opposite of how teams reward veteran FAs. The lowest-ceiling OL position is center, where 1st team APs can't land a $13MM contract. The second-lowest is RT, where just 4 are paid more than $10MM. In terms of lowest average-salary starter, then they flip-flop and the lowest-salary starter is RT. Among draft picks, nobody drafts a center inside the top 10 ever, though now & then a guard is taken. 

But you know more than every GM ever. Including Reid, I guess, who's just handed out the highest-dollar contract ever awarded to a guard, but years ago let his upper-level center go in FA. He's stupid and you're smart. Up is down. Fat is skinny. Etc. :rl: 

The OL is LT and then there's everything else. Despite your "system" lol. 

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4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I'd love to see that he wasnt touched through 4 games

And to my point, they all play from relatively clean pockets.  

I love how were now making excuses for all the good throws he made 

A lot, some, more than a few, of those thread the needle throws would be broken up or possibly intercepted in the NFL. If one corner or safety in that conference gets drafted before the 5th rd, it would be surprising 

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1 hour ago, HamBilly said:

I've actually watched film analysis on him unlike many on here who just watched the highlights.

His O-line was statistically amazing.

His strength of schedule was bad.

The film shows that he often threw 50/50 balls.

The film shows he would miss easy reads often.

 

Zach Wilson and Justin Fields feels like Mitch Trubisky/Watson all over again. 

probably the same film that was already viewed and dubunked by most of us here. Is it the one where the GUY SAYS he throws 50/50 "saturday" balls and proceeds to show a video of a perfect bullet going right where the wr can catch it but not the CB?

 

Probs...

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3 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

I can't make heads or tails of the logic of this post. A lot of straw men being propped up to be knocked down. In any case, what are Wilson's "clear flaws?"

Flaws!?!...he's about to be a Jet.  That scares the poop out of NYJ fannies

Scared to Death: Can You Really Die of Fright? Is it ...

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, HamBilly said:

He struggles with processing his reads. He often misses the right read, and ends up making a riskier play because he missed the right read. He got away with this because his O-line was just dominant so it gave him time even when he missed his reads.

This is so damn untrue and the numbers  don’t back this up either. He can be a bit risky at times but far, far better at knowing the limitations of a play and when to gamble. He regularly dirts passes, throws passes away and the ball comes out quickly with decisiveness.(& i’m largely referring to the 2019 film I watched, not 20’.) in 20’ his turnover worthy plays 0... so safe to say I strongly disagree with this analysis & so does multiple other outlets to determine so.

2 hours ago, HamBilly said:

Many of his highlight throws would be considered bad decisions at the next level.

Highlight throws or highlight reel throws? If you’re watching a reel on YouTube, chances are, you seen tons of risky passes get put in the bread basket. That isn’t highlight throws imo. I consider highlight throws to be quite the opposite. nothing flashy, but quick, smart throws made with good accuracy. Wilson has a disciplined lower base when he throws and his really has the ability to rip it accurately without losing velocity. The ball doesn’t dip often.

2 hours ago, HamBilly said:

He struggled to play within structure at times but wasn't punished because his teams were vastly more talented.

He can play at a frantic pace at times, but I seen good examples of him standing in the pocket, showing poise, and even taking a few licks as he was letting the pass off. I really don’t see much of a red flag here. He isn’t a finished product lol. He’s not even n the league yet. Some things you can’t change but this one is a bit of a reach in regards to things to be concerned about Day 1.

2 hours ago, HamBilly said:

He didn't face NFL style pressure often because of his dominant line.

you’re welcome to check this out.

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25 minutes ago, genot said:

A lot, some, more than a few, of those thread the needle throws would be broken up or possibly intercepted in the NFL. If one corner or safety in that conference gets drafted before the 5th rd, it would be surprising 

Based on what?  

Yes the DBs will be better than what he see's, so will his WRs.

 

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7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Based on what?  

Yes the DBs will be better than what he see's, so will his WRs.

 

He's not going to have a 70% completion percentage in the NFL. Would you agree with that. Same point.

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2 minutes ago, genot said:

He's not going to have a 70% completion percentage in the NFL. Would you agree with that. Same point.

Is Trevor Lawrence going to have a 69.2% comp percentage? 

Is Justin Fields going to have a 70.2% comp percentage?

Is Mac jones going to have a 77.4% comp percentage?

Would you agree with that?  Same point.  

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1 minute ago, Peace Frog said:

Is Trevor Lawrence going to have a 69.2% comp percentage? 

Is Justin Fields going to have a 70.2% comp percentage?

Is Mac jones going to have a 77.4% comp percentage?

Would you agree with that?  Same point.  

Depends on where they all end up, I'd say Jones will have a completion rate over 70% if he ends up at the 49ers.

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49 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I'd love to see proof that he wasnt touched through 4 games

And to my point, they all play from relatively clean pockets.  

I love how were now making excuses for all the good throws he made 

Maybe it was three -  I can't find the tweet I'm referencing but PFF has one from October 7 saying that OL hasn't allowed a sack or hit.

They don't play from pockets that clean. BYU had the second rated OL in the country this year as well.

It's not an excuse for good throws and I'm sure you're capable of understanding trying to project what someone did to what they're going to do at the next level. Doesn't mean he can't be successful in other ways but he's not going to be able to hunt big plays in the NFL like he did in college.

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4 minutes ago, genot said:

He's not going to have a 70% completion percentage in the NFL. Would you agree with that. Same point.

No kidding.

Neither will Fields.

Or Jones

Or yes, even Lawrence

But thats not the same as Wilsons passes will get knocked down or intercepted because the DBs are better.  

Or that the same doesnt apply to every other college QB thats going to be picked in the 1st.  Theyre not going to be picked exclusively due to their stats, thats why they watch tape.

 

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3 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

Depends on where they all end up, I'd say Jones will have a completion rate over 70% if he ends up at the 49ers.

Sure he will.  

That was just a dream 

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3 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

Depends on where they all end up, I'd say Jones will have a completion rate over 70% if he ends up at the 49ers.

So if we are running a similar offense to SF, LaFluer gets Zach some easy reads, we get improved play from the line and WRs/RBs, you don't think Wilson can complete 64% of his passes? 

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