Jump to content

I strongly believe Zach Wilson is being drastically overrated because of the Mahomes effect.


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, derp said:

Maybe it was three -  I can't find the tweet I'm referencing but PFF has one from October 7 saying that OL hasn't allowed a sack or hit.

They don't play from pockets that clean. BYU had the second rated OL in the country this year as well.

It's not an excuse for good throws and I'm sure you're capable of understanding trying to project what someone did to what they're going to do at the next level. Doesn't mean he can't be successful in other ways but he's not going to be able to hunt big plays in the NFL like he did in college.

They watch tape, they evaluate his throws, his arm, his accuracy, his ability to read a defense, to go through progressions, to know when to run, when to stay.

They know what kind of OL he was operating behind. 

They also know that Lawrence, Fields and Jones operated behind the same type of protection.  I dont care what PFF says, Jones wasnt hurt by playing behind the Alabama OL instead of what BYU put out there 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 212
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control. Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bi

Big thank you to the OP. At last. Theres finally a thread to discuss the drafting of Zach Wilson. 

Welcome to the board! I thought I'd have the honor of giving you your first thumbs down.

Posted Images

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been the consensus No. 1 player in the 2021 NFL draft class for years, but some put BYU quarterback Zach Wilson on the same level.

"If I was picking No. 1—hoo, man, it'd be hard for me not to take him over Trevor," an AFC quarterbacks coach told Tom Pelissero of NFL.com. "He's got real playmaking ability. He's shorter [than Lawrence]—I get it. But he's got ball all about him. He makes plays—unique plays."

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

So everything that has been debated and debunked is now being regurgiated as fact.

If something is not true, repeating it over and over and over will not make it true.

Too funny. 

Its the same shlt as with Lawrence.  We might get Lawrence and hes generational.  As we get closer, he doesnt throw deep, his passes are short, he has and incredible team around him, damn he's just not that good.

Wilson when from the golden boy to a lucky bastard the same way

We did the same exact dance with Becton a year ago.  We loved him, then hated him then he was mentioned as the most likely to bust.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, derp said:

Doesn't mean he can't be successful in other ways but he's not going to be able to hunt big plays in the NFL like he did in college.

Do you think LaFleur is going to install an offense with a rookie QB and a suspect line and offensive weapons that focuses on the long ball?

I suspect he is going to install a very controlled, run-centric, efficient, short passing game in 2021 to let him get his feet wet.  

Next year he'll be dropping 60 yard dimes.  

  • Upvote 2
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Is Trevor Lawrence going to have a 69.2% comp percentage? 

Is Justin Fields going to have a 70.2% comp percentage?

Is Mac jones going to have a 77.4% comp percentage?

Would you agree with that?  Same point.  

We're not talking about them. This thread was about Wilson. What is it with some of you. You get personally insulted if someone raises an issue with regards to a draftable QB. Those other QB's that you mentioned faced defenses with many more players who will be drafted and stick around in the NFL for a while.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

They watch tape, they evaluate his throws, his arm, his accuracy, his ability to read a defense, to go through progressions, to know when to run, when to stay.

They know what kind of OL he was operating behind. 

They also know that Lawrence, Fields and Jones operated behind the same type of protection.  I dont care what PFF says, Jones wasnt hurt by playing behind the Alabama OL instead of what BYU put out there 

I don't know what you're trying to say with me when you reference "they" and I find it interesting that you go from Lawrence, Fields, and Jones to just Jones. Jones and Wilson both played with supporting casts relative to competition that were a tick above what Lawrence and Fields did. Makes both evaluations more challenging no matter how "they" try to parse out the impact of the competition.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, genot said:

We're not talking about them. This thread was about Wilson. What is it with some of you. You get personally insulted if someone raises an issue with regards to a draftable QB. Those other QB's that you mentioned faced defenses with many more players who will be drafted and stick around in the NFL for a while.

And the point is none of the QBs will put up the completion %s they did in college.  They wont have the talent superiority that they have in college.  None of them.

The point is valid

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, genot said:

We're not talking about them. This thread was about Wilson. What is it with some of you. You get personally insulted if someone raises an issue with regards to a draftable QB. Those other QB's that you mentioned faced defenses with many more players who will be drafted and stick around in the NFL for a while.

With WRs that are first round picks and future all-pros.

If you are going to criticize someone for their college completion percentage, let's see what they all did in college.

Have you seen the WRs that Mac Jones has been throwing to? Looks like eventually will be 6 1st round WRs.  It's insane the talent he was throwing to.  77.2% didn't happen because he's an incredibly accurate QB.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

And the point is none of the QBs will put up the completion %s they did in college.  They wont have the talent superiority that they have in college.  None of them.

The point is valid

You're only allowed to downplay Zach's comp %.

The rest are legit.  

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, derp said:

I don't know what you're trying to say with me when you reference "they" and I find it interesting that you go from Lawrence, Fields, and Jones to just Jones. Jones and Wilson both played with supporting casts relative to competition that were a tick above what Lawrence and Fields did. Makes both evaluations more challenging no matter how "they" try to parse out the impact of the competition.

Exactly, now youre getting it.

It might be, I'm going out on a limb here, why I said in one of these monotonous posts, that they, the QBs in the 1st, are being judged by their talents as seen on the field vs the talent they face as well as the talent they play with.  

No one has come up with a new concept here

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Peace Frog said:

You're only allowed to downplay Zach's comp %.

The rest are legit.  

Apparently so 

And dont bring the others into it, its about Wilson only

Best part of this is I've said repeatedly that I would understand drafting Wilson or Fields, I like them both even if I favor Wilson

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, derp said:

I don't know what you're trying to say with me when you reference "they" and I find it interesting that you go from Lawrence, Fields, and Jones to just Jones. Jones and Wilson both played with supporting casts relative to competition that were a tick above what Lawrence and Fields did. Makes both evaluations more challenging no matter how "they" try to parse out the impact of the competition.

Well, comp % was mentioned so it's seemed fair to mention Jones.

But even still, Clemson and OSU were MUCH more talented than almost all of their competition.  That's why they've been in Nat Champ contention for the last 10 years.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jet Nut said:

Exactly, now youre getting it.

It might be, I'm going out on a limb here, why I said in one of these monotonous posts, that they, the QBs in the 1st, are being judged by their talents as seen on the field vs the talent they face as well as the talent they play with.  

No one has come up with a new concept here

We'll see. I think two of those guys are in for a rude awakening, depending on what situation they land in.

Not like NFL teams have been remotely good at judging QB's lately.

Link to post
Share on other sites

A high percentage of can’t miss QBs end up missing, the only negative I can see with Zach Wilson is his Slimish build, he moves well, is very competitive , makes the throws, no reason to suggest he isn’t a high end prospect but we really won’t know until he plays, will we?

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

With WRs that are first round picks and future all-pros.

If you are going to criticize someone for their college completion percentage, let's see what they all did in college.

Have you seen the WRs that Mac Jones has been throwing to? Looks like eventually will be 6 1st round WRs.  It's insane the talent he was throwing to.  77.2% didn't happen because he's an incredibly accurate QB.  

Never mind a dominant running game with a dominant RB to go along with a NFL like defense that could win on their own.  Field position and playing from a lead sure makes passing easier.  Does that count?

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

While I do think there is a possibility Wilson may be getting a little over rated I don't associate him with Mahomes nor should anyone else. Mahomes always showed excellent awareness of his surroundings and has a great relationship with his WR's as quickly as Mahomes established that was crazy and no one could have predicted what he did from day 1 in this league. Wilson is talented no doubt but just like every drafted QB how he deals with the pressure of the NFL is always an unknown

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, HamBilly said:

There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

Maybe you should mention some of those flaws and not focus on rhetoric. It might help you make your point at least more so than a few paragraphs of fluff.  You said he doesn't have the arm strength of the two strongest arms in the league. That isn't a flaw particularly since he has a strong arm as anyone can see. Being a year 'one year wonder' isn't a flaw. It's something to consider when evaluating a prospect, but isn't a physical or mental trait that affects his play on the field.    

Bruce Willis Party GIF by IFC

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, derp said:

We'll see. I think two of those guys are in for a rude awakening, depending on what situation they land in.

Not like NFL teams have been remotely good at judging QB's lately.

Could be, more than likely will be.  I'm not saying thats wrong.  

Again, I like the two QBs that are being beaten to death here, I'll be happy with either.  I just cant take the way his career and abilities have been raked over the last couple of weeks as we go from being happy with the pick to overthinking it and looking for reasons why all that was impressive two weeks ago suddenly has a reason why it really wasnt impressive

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

So if we are running a similar offense to SF, LaFluer gets Zach some easy reads, we get improved play from the line and WRs/RBs, you don't think Wilson can complete 64% of his passes? 

Of course wilson could, it was stated by someone else on here that is in the know that leflour will emphasize the run game first and foremost with a lot of one reads for the rookie qb not putting to much pressure on him.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Peace Frog said:

Well, comp % was mentioned so it's seemed fair to mention Jones.

But even still, Clemson and OSU were MUCH more talented than almost all of their competition.  That's why they've been in Nat Champ contention for the last 10 years.  

They all played on good teams. The gap between BYU's supporting cast and competition was deemed to be larger than any team besides Alabama by folks who looked through this. Partially because BYU's schedule was awful.

Moreso than the other guys, when I look at one of Wilson's biggest strengths (arm talent leading to impressive, highlight downfield throws) and where his supporting cast helped him (tremendous offensive line, most throws after 4+ seconds by a wide margin) I wonder what he did in college translates. That happens to come together as a "hm" for me more clearly than the other guys.

That said, I am disappointed they're taking any of them at two. Bunch of talented but flawed players after a pandemic season coming in to lead a team with really bad offensive talent and play year one. Does not feel like it will end well.

  • Post of the Week 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

With WRs that are first round picks and future all-pros.

If you are going to criticize someone for their college completion percentage, let's see what they all did in college.

Have you seen the WRs that Mac Jones has been throwing to? Looks like eventually will be 6 1st round WRs.  It's insane the talent he was throwing to.  77.2% didn't happen because he's an incredibly accurate QB.  

I never said anything about Mac Jones. No way he duplicates those numbers up here. All i said was that some of the completions that Wilson had last year wouldn't be completions here. Based on the increased pressure up front, and the quality of secondary talent. Up here compared to BYU. That's not a knock on Wilson. And it really isn't an outrageous conclusion to draw.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Could be, more than likely will be.  I'm not saying thats wrong.  

Again, I like the two QBs that are being beaten to death here, I'll be happy with either.  I just cant take the way his career and abilities have been raked over the last couple of weeks as we go from being happy with the pick to overthinking it and looking for reasons why all that was impressive two weeks ago suddenly has a reason why it really wasnt impressive

You're not wrong to like both, they're talented. My perspective hasn't changed in the last two weeks. I think the situation is a disaster and they'd have been way better off waiting a year. Hope they sit the guy they take.

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Sure he will.  

That was just a dream 

To many factors to have this discussion like will the 9ers select him, will Jimmy G still be on the roster if they do ect but jones will have a successful carrier in the NFL even though he is not the "modern" nfl QB prototype. If it is to be believed he is extremely football smart that trait will bring you a long way as a qb.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jeremy2020 said:

Neither of those QB are able to recognize that they can't make those throws. I have to disagree that the difference between Darnold and Mahomes is simply arm strength.

There’s more differences no doubt but that’s a big one.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, genot said:

I never said anything about Mac Jones. No way he duplicates those numbers up here. All i said was that some of the completions that Wilson had last year wouldn't be completions here. Based on the increased pressure up front, and the quality of secondary talent. Up here compared to BYU. That's not a knock on Wilson. And it really isn't an outrageous conclusion to draw.

Nobody thinks he’s going to complete 70.2% in his rookie season. 

But he’s also not going to revert to a 55% rate. Because of better DBs. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Yes and at the same time it’s likely he ends up not being the best QB in the draft. Somebody gets lucky the rest don’t. 

Considering that he's being drafted by a team with the least talented roster in the NFL it's likely that he'll end up being a bust.

JD has gone all in using the #2 OA on a QB without first building a foundation that'll enable the QB to have a chance to develop. Add in a rookie HC, an OC that has never called a play and an OL that STINKS. That is not a recipe for success.

It'll all depends on JD's ability to draft THIS year. #23 and #34 have got to be home run picks on OL and WR. The rest of day two picks had better be above average starters and if JD is any good he must find a gem in the late rounds.

I'm pulling for Wilson but I'm afraid he's going to be put in a situation where it's impossible to succeed. This all rests on JD and I'm hoping he beats the odds.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, HamBilly said:

I am not hating on the kid or saying he is going to be bad, but the Zach Wilson hype is out of control.

Just look at their draft profiles. Their draft profiles seem completely identical with a bit of re-wording. The only difference between the two is that Mahomes was criticized for his unconventional plays that many believed wouldn't translate to the NFL. Those same criticisms are missing from Wilsons Draft profile, and would have been there if Mahomes didn't change the way we look at QBs 3 years ago. There is a good chance many of the Mahomes-like plays Wilson is being touted for now, won't work in the NFL like it does for Mahomes. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b and https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 

One of the reasons Mahomes is able to get away with some of his throws is because he has incredible arm strength that is only rivaled by Josh Allen in the last 20 years. Wilson arm is not in the Mahomes/Allen nor is it in the Stafford/Rodgers tier. 

Mahomes got to sit for a year behind an experienced NFL play caller in Andy Reid. He also went to a team with great weapons that made Alex Smith look like a MVP candidate. Mahomes had a HOF caliber TE and one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history who complements Mahomes skillset perfectly. If the Jets draft Wilson, he will have a 1st time OC in the NFL along with some of the worst weapons in the NFL.

The 49ers, who are a much more functional franchise than the Jets, traded up for the 3rd best QB in this draft despite already having a QB who took them to the superbowl. That tells me that there are at least 3 top end QBs in this draft. From all reports it seems like the Jets are locked onto Wilson. Tell me, since when has there ever been such a consensus on the top 2 QBs in a draft. There were even legitimate arguments for RG3 over Luck or Winston/Mariota. Also for those arguments to be even close, RG3 and Mariota had to win the Heisman. Even when Darnold was widely regarded the #1 QB in 2018, there was still a massive debate for the 2nd & 3rd QB off the board.

There are many analysts and keyboard experts who act like Zach Wilson is the 3rd best prospect behind only Luck and Lawrence in the last 10 years. There are some that go as far to say he is better than Lawrence despite being a 1 year wonder who doesn't even have anything close to the track record to be regarded that highly. Justin Fields was projected to be a top 5 pick since 2019. Trey Lance was also believed to go top 10 since 2019. If this all based off 1 year, Mac Jones was much better than Wilson last year. Now you want to tell me this guy Zach Wilson jumped all 3 of them after only 1 good year because he looks like a discount version of Mahomes? Remember, not even Mahomes was thought of this highly coming out and Mahomes had better college numbers for multiple years.

There is no other reason for Wilson to be this highly regarded except for people trying to find the next Mahomes. There are clear flaws in Wilson's game that are being overlooked because he looks a bit like Mahomes did coming out.

 

Wilson may be a bust.  Fields may be a bust.  Lance and Jones may be totally lame.  The only QB in the draft that looks to be a very safe pick is Lawrence.  Only possible drawback is a slower delivery than you would like as an ideal.  Not slow enough to be a real worry. 

 Circumstances will play the compelling role in all of their respective futures.

If any of them are handled the way Darnold was, they are going to have miserable careers.

If they are handled the way Josh Allen and Mahomes were handled, they will have good to stellar careers.

As I have said.  An NFL franchise is thousands of moving parts.  An NFL QB prospect is a master gear for sure, but only one gear in a complex and fluid contraption. 

The Jets as an organization has been execrable.  

Will JD and Saleh be able to keep the Johnsons out of the kitchen, or will they be forced to cook up a sh*t stew ???

THAT is the key for Wilson and his possible future. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, genot said:

I never said anything about Mac Jones. No way he duplicates those numbers up here. All i said was that some of the completions that Wilson had last year wouldn't be completions here. Based on the increased pressure up front, and the quality of secondary talent. Up here compared to BYU. That's not a knock on Wilson. And it really isn't an outrageous conclusion to draw.

Saying his college passes--or anyone's college passes--wouldn't be completions in the NFL is an imbecilic argument. First of all, there is no objective way to know if that's true. But even if we were to play your game, and say, "He'd be throwing against NFL rushers and NFL defensive backs!" you would be ignoring the fact that he would be throwing to NFL receivers behind NFL offensive lineman. It's fantasy-driven analysis. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Nobody thinks he’s going to complete 70.2% in his rookie season. 

But he’s also not going to revert to a 55% rate. Because of better DBs. 

That's all i said. Jet Nut was offended that i would say such a thing???

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

Saying his college passes--or anyone's college passes--wouldn't be completions in the NFL is an imbecilic argument. First of all, there is no objective way to know if that's true. But even if we were to play your game, and say, "He'd be throwing against NFL rushers and NFL defensive backs!" you would be ignoring the fact that he would be throwing to NFL receivers behind NFL offensive lineman. It's fantasy-driven analysis. 

Im not a name caller. If you don't think that NFL. Corners aren't able to make a play on the ball more effectively than the talent he faced at BYU, then you need your head examined. Kyle Wilson was one of the highest drafted corners to come out of that mid west conference That's what Wilson was throwing against. Kyle Wilson was considered elite in that conference

Link to post
Share on other sites

I hate this thread.  The premise is beyond crazy talk.

The reason Baker Mayfield moved ahead of Sam Darnold on Cleveland and the Jets boards was his incredible accuracy.  Zach Wilson was more accurate last year.  Zach Wilson's numbers were staggering in terms of accuracy.  73.5% 33 TD's and 3 INT's.

BYU plays an easier schedule than the big 12 confrence.  However if you actually watched games in the big 12 there is literally no defense throughout the confrence.  Watch any game that Oklahoma or Texas Tech played.  with Mahomes and Mayfield, guys are running wide open.

Mac Jones had a great year last year.  Joe Burrow who I think is going to be great was destined to be a 2nd day pick or an FA if he wasn't a "1 year wonder".  

The idea that Wilson is at the top of the draft board for any other reason except his performance, interviews, measurables and tapes is insane.   Joe Douglas and the Jets staff aren't betting their future on the next Patrick Mahomes.  

FYI Mac Jones was slightly better not much better and nobody was dropping passes that were right in their hands when Mac Jones was throwing the ball. 

Fields and Mac Jones are going to get drafted right where they were "Destined" to get drafted.  Top half of the first round possibly top 5 or 10.  

Zach has earned his draft spot.  Stop crying about.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, genot said:

Im not a name caller. If you don't think that NFL. Corners aren't able to make a play on the ball more effectively than the talent he faced at BYU, then you need your head examined. Kyle Wilson was one of the highest drafted corners to come out of that mid west conference That's what Wilson was throwing against. Kyle Wilson was considered elite in that conference

JaMarcus Russell, and Johnny Manziel were elite players in the SEC who went bust in the NFL.  What's your point?

BTW BYU isn't in the Mid west conference.

They are independent.  That's why they were able to play as many games as they did while the other teams were only playing 5-6

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...