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draft strategy, where's the value at 23?


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Lots being said about what we should do after Wilson... obviously we have needs at CB, LB, OL (center/guard and right tackle), RB.

Have done lots of mocks and the way the board falls, I think the premier tackles will be gone by 23 (including Jenkins), as will the premier CBs.  Farley may fall, but I see him as a mid-round pick given injury and opt-out concerns.  And I think the sweet spot for tackles and center/guards may be round 3 for us (perhaps top of round 2; targeting Radunz, Eichenberg, Meinerz--or even later Drew Dalman, Walker Little), although I'd prefer a playmaker there (Etienne, or a WR that falls), or a CB from the second tier.  To me, I see the LB's stacking now in the 20s, and regardless of what you think about Mosley, we have needs as we switch to the 4-3.  I could easily see LB being the value in the 20s.  Nick Bolton, JOK, Zaven Collins.  Thoughts?

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The NFL Draft isn't a competition about who got the best "value" according to pundits, talking heads and fans on draft night. Obsessing over "getting value" is a great way to build a lopsided los

The value at #23 is to make the best move to support the new QB.

What if the difference between the OL on the board at 23, after a run on them in the teens, isn't significantly different than at 34 (or at 32 or at wherever the team might move up to a bit)? Wha

2 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Lots being said about what we should do after Wilson... obviously we have needs at CB, LB, OL (center/guard and right tackle), RB.

Have done lots of mocks and the way the board falls, I think the premier tackles will be gone by 23 (including Jenkins), as will the premier CBs.  Farley may fall, but I see him as a mid-round pick given injury and opt-out concerns.  And I think the sweet spot for tackles and center/guards may be round 3 for us (perhaps top of round 2; targeting Radunz, Eichenberg, Meinerz--or even later Drew Dalman, Walker Little), although I'd prefer a playmaker there (Etienne, or a WR that falls), or a CB from the second tier.  To me, I see the LB's stacking now in the 20s, and regardless of what you think about Mosley, we have needs as we switch to the 4-3.  I could easily see LB being the value in the 20s.  Nick Bolton, JOK, Zaven Collins.  Thoughts?

Edge guys too.

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On the other hand, if you get value with every pick and don’t worry as much about the position , except from the standpoint of certain positions like , LTs are worth more than Rb’s etc. , eventually, your roster is deeper and you have more good players.

It’s actually drafting for need that is more likely to find you a bust, like, we NEED a pass rusher , let’s take Gholston even with his pimples.

Seems like looking for value is what JD has been doing, like trading down and still finding Mims later in the second rd , great Value there and this season Mims will show it.

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10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The NFL Draft isn't a competition about who got the best "value" according to pundits, talking heads and fans on draft night.

Obsessing over "getting value" is a great way to build a lopsided loser of a team on gameday.

Every draft for years our Fans have said we got great "value" on draft night, for the most part.  Yet our team is consistently horrible, and fielded one of the worst, least effective Offenses in the league for a literal decade+.  Every one of our lolGM's were lauded by fans on this very site as getting "great value" in the moment, what has that done for us?  We've been horrific.

Pthhh.  I spit on the entire concept of "getting value". 

I want PLAYERS, impact players where we need them most, perceived "value" be damned.

And that, right now, means OFFENSE

Impact O-linemen to max-protect our new franchise-defining QB for once, impact playmakers at the O-skill positions so we score some damn points and support that young QB for once.

There WILL be an offensive player worth picking at #23 and #34, make no mistake.  The so-called "value" is nothing more than pundits and talking heads cute little rating of an Edge as a fraction of a point or two higher than the Offensive player we actually desperately need to improve this team.  That's not actual value, for our team, on the field, it's Draft Fantasy Football, a silly side game for numbers obsessives.

JD should not be swayed by hypothetical "value". 

He should be swayed by building an actual working offense around our soon-to-be-franchise-defining-for-next-3>5-years-minimum #2 Pick QB.

giphy.gif

 

Agreed...trading back at 23 is just stupid 

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9 minutes ago, Leftylarry said:

It’s actually drafting for need that is more likely to find you a bust, like, we NEED a pass rusher , let’s take Gholston even with his pimples.

Gholston was considered the BIG VALUE pick BECAUSE he was a "Premium value position whose workouts were off the charts for potential" Edge.  He's the literal poster-child for why "perceived value" is a dumb idea.

No one is saying "take a 5th round rated Guard at #23 because derp need".

We're saying "take the mid-1st round grade O-lineman or WR (or yes, even a playmaking RB) over a similarly mid-1st round grade LB or CB or EDGE".  

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Value is looking at what is available, and taking the player who will be a difference maker, one who will make the team better. If two guys are pretty even on your board, then go for the biggest need.

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30 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The NFL Draft isn't a competition about who got the best "value" according to pundits, talking heads and fans on draft night.

Obsessing over "getting value" is a great way to build a lopsided loser of a team on gameday.

Every draft for years our Fans have said we got great "value" on draft night, for the most part.  Yet our team is consistently horrible, and fielded one of the worst, least effective Offenses in the league for a literal decade+.  Every one of our lolGM's were lauded by fans on this very site as getting "great value" in the moment, what has that done for us?  We've been horrific.

Pthhh.  I spit on the entire concept of "getting value". 

I want PLAYERS, impact players where we need them most, perceived "value" be damned.

And that, right now, means OFFENSE

Impact O-linemen to max-protect our new franchise-defining QB for once, impact playmakers at the O-skill positions so we score some damn points and support that young QB for once.

There WILL be an offensive player worth picking at #23 and #34, make no mistake.  The so-called "value" is nothing more than pundits and talking heads cute little rating of an Edge as a fraction of a point or two higher than the Offensive player we actually desperately need to improve this team.  That's not actual value, for our team, on the field, it's Draft Fantasy Football, a silly side game for numbers obsessives.

JD should not be swayed by hypothetical "value". 

He should be swayed by building an actual working offense around our soon-to-be-franchise-defining-for-next-3>5-years-minimum #2 Pick QB.

giphy.gif

 

I totally agree.  While value is important it is not the priority and to your point creates lopsided rosters and stupid/unnecessary decisions that need to be made at slater date.    You accumulate picks to you can get the guys you want and need .  Douglas alluded to this yesterday so I am confident he knows the deal. 

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3 hours ago, derp said:

Agree 23 is no man’s land. I don’t think the Jets end up picking there. Up or back.

Agreed.  I think we trade up to the late teens , if possible, grab one of the stud linemen.  And then look to trade back from 34 to recoup some draft capital back to fill other needs.

Bold prediction.  We will not make a pick at either 23 or 34.

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14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Gholston was considered the BIG VALUE pick BECAUSE he was a "Premium value position whose workouts were off the charts for potential" Edge.  He's the literal poster-child for why "perceived value" is a dumb idea.

No one is saying "take a 5th round rated Guard at #23 because derp need".

We're saying "take the mid-1st round grade O-lineman or WR (or yes, even a playmaking RB) over a similarly mid-1st round grade LB or CB or EDGE".  

Gholston was a bad pick because he was a bust, not because of his position, though.

If he was a huge bust OG he'd have been no better of a pick there. 

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18 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Gholston was considered the BIG VALUE pick BECAUSE he was a "Premium value position whose workouts were off the charts for potential" Edge.  He's the literal poster-child for why "perceived value" is a dumb idea.

No one is saying "take a 5th round rated Guard at #23 because derp need".

We're saying "take the mid-1st round grade O-lineman or WR (or yes, even a playmaking RB) over a similarly mid-1st round grade LB or CB or EDGE".  

Although Gholston was also a "need" pick, in that the Jets had lacked an impact pass-rusher since forever.

He was seen as filling a need AND being great value.

And then he sucked, essentially through lacking the character and desire to be a pro football player.

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4 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  I think we trade up to the last teens , if possible, grab one of the stud linemen.  And then look to trade back from 34 to recoup some draft capital back to fill other needs.

Bold prediction.  We will not make a pick at either 23 or 34.

My bold prediction. One of the “big 5”QB’s doesn’t get drafted in the 1st rd.

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11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What if the difference between the OL on the board at 23, after a run on them in the teens, isn't significantly different than at 34 (or at 32 or at wherever the team might move up to a bit)?

What if, further, the drop-off at another high-importance, need position (not the BAP DT when we've got 3-4 of them already) is expected to be far more significant?

e.g. which combo would you rather have?

  • a 7.4 rated OL at 23 + 7.1 rated CB at 34 (maybe higher, if you don't mind serious injury history risks)
  • an 8.1 rated CB at 23 + 7.3 rated OL at 34 (or possibly the same OL you were going to take at 23 anyway)

Or a similar choice, but swap EDGE for CB instead. 

It's too early to say if we'd be facing that choice, but it's not far-fetched. Unless we're landing one of the top 2-3 OL prospects, it seems it's pretty subjective which rank-order the next 3-4 should go. 

In such a case we'd be getting a similar-ranked OL but a much better CB prospect, at least on paper. Too early for a mic drop must-draft until we see it's the case that the next-best OL at 23 isn't dramatically better than the one we'd get a little later. Over-drafting an OL who stands a good chance of still being there at 34, just because he's the next best fit iOL on our board, isn't a strategy I hope they employ. 

If there was a huge perceived dropoff after the guy we could get at 23, I'd feel differently. 

Your entire post depends on knowing who will be available at #34 when you pick at #23. 

The Draft doesn't work that way, nor does (I'll repeat) the cute little 7.4 vs. 7.1 rate, 8.1 vs. 7.4 rate nonsense matter to me whatsoever.  More Fantasy Football gibberish of little on-field meaning, remind me wasn't Gholston a 9.6 on that stupid scale?

At #23 I pick the very best, most impactful, hard to get Offensive Player I possibly can, so I can build around and support my #2 Pick QB.

If I presume I could get just as good a Guard at #34 as I can at #23, then I look at WR, and RB, or TE.  Or I consider trading down for more picks and letting someone else get their CB or LB or Edge while I get more picks to fix our thin-as-hell depth problems.

I don't pick the CB because you tell me the CB is rated 8.1 and the RB is rated 8.0, or because CB is 1.1 on the "premium position matrix" and WR is only 1.0 on that matrix.

Fans, Sports Media (and to be fair plenty of NFL GM's) have incorrectly convinced themselves that these numbers matter more than building a team that can actually play and produce points, which produces wins.  Our previous GM's were notorious for this obsession on "BAP Value".  

But to answer your question Sperm, in your scenario, I draft the 7.4 rated O-Lineman at 23 and I draft a WR (like Terrence Marshall) at #34, and I don't draft a damned CB when I can sign Sherman for just money and fill that position just fine for the short term.

The need to prioritize Offense is now.  Not forever.  If we still need a CB we can draft one in the mid-rounds, and if we still need a CB next offseason, maybe then we'll be a better, more balanced team, and we can spend high draft capital on a CB Then.

NOW we must support our new QB to the maximum extent possible.  If that means we miss on a 0.2 rating difference between a CB and OL or WR, so be it.  You don't win games drafting a LB that plays the same position as Mosely over a OL or WR because "well, we got slightly better value tho....".

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I think I'll be in the minority (maybe not) but I would prefer the 2nd pick, wherever it may fall, be on a CB or Edge.

I think you can still solidify the IOL with a solid starter(or 2) later.  Same with RB.  I don't think it's nearly as likely with CB or Edge.  In my perfect world, the Jets could trade back to the end of rd 1 or top of RD2 and get an extra 3rd at worst and still get a day 1 starter at CB or Edge, then take to IOL in 2nd and 3rd Rounds 

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I'll have no problem with a pass rusher at 23.  After 10+ years of no consistent pressure

you're not going to hear me complain about having multiple pass rushers

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Your entire post depends on knowing who will be available at #34 when you pick at #23. 

The Draft doesn't work that way, nor does (I'll repeat) the cute little 7.4 vs. 7.1 rate, 8.1 vs. 7.4 rate nonsense matter to me whatsoever.  More Fantasy Football gibberish of little on-field meaning, remind me wasn't Gholston a 9.6 on that stupid scale?

At #23 I pick the very best, most impactful, hard to get Offensive Player I possibly can, so I can build around and support my #2 Pick QB.

If I presume I could get just as good a Guard at #34 as I can at #23, then I look at WR, and RB, or TE.  Or I consider trading down for more picks and letting someone else get their CB or LB or Edge while I get more picks to fix our thin-as-hell depth problems.

I don't pick the CB because you tell me the CB is rated 8.1 and the RB is rated 8.0, or because CB is 1.1 on the "premium position matrix" and WR is only 1.0 on that matrix.

Fans, Sports Media (and to be fair plenty of NFL GM's) have incorrectly convinced themselves that these numbers matter more than building a team that can actually play and produce points, which produces wins.  Our previous GM's were notorious for this obsession on "BAP Value".  

But to answer your question Sperm, in your scenario, I draft the 7.4 rated O-Lineman at 23 and I draft a WR (like Terrence Marshall) at #34, and I don't draft a damned CB when I can sign Sherman for just money and fill that position just fine for the short term.

The need to prioritize Offense is now.  Not forever.  If we still need a CB we can draft one in the mid-rounds, and if we still need a CB next offseason, maybe then we'll be a better, more balanced team, and we can spend high draft capital on a CB Then.

NOW we must support our new QB to the maximum extent possible.  If that means we miss on a 0.2 rating difference between a CB and OL or WR, so be it.  You don't win games drafting a LB that plays the same position as Mosely over a OL or WR because "well, we got slightly better value tho....".

A lot of words to say ‘draft a good player’. 
 

like it or not every team assigns values and ratings to every player - that’s how they make up their boards. If there are 3/4/ similar OL they like and only one top edge/CB on their board at 23, guess what? They’re going defense and will grab one of the OL at 34. 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

The so-called "value" is nothing more than pundits and talking heads cute little rating of an Edge as a fraction of a point or two higher than the Offensive player we actually desperately need to improve this team. 

Lol. 

It's the value the NFL places on Edge over every position in the league that isn't a QB, your efforts to diminish that value notwithstanding. The franchise tag number for an Edge is $16M, the tag for RB (the lowest valued position before specialists) is almost half that at $8.6M. Don't know how much more clearly the value of a position can be ascertained than by what the league is paying them. Every position on defense, excluding safety, has a higher tag number than OL. It's the LTs that get paid there, and the Jets already have one of those. 

The Jets need improvements everywhere. That makes this draft easy for Joe Douglas. He can pretty much go BAP right down the board without pigeon-holing needs and do a better job of improving the roster as a whole as a result. 

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22 minutes ago, KRL said:

I'll have no problem with a pass rusher at 23.  After 10+ years of no consistent pressure

you're not going to hear me complain about having multiple pass rushers

Remind us of that if your 2021 Weekly Game Report is grading the O an F and complaining about why we once again scored 3 points and lost by 21. 👍

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18 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

A lot of words to say ‘draft a good player’. 
 

like it or not every team assigns values and ratings to every player - that’s how they make up their boards. If there are 3/4/ similar OL they like and only one top edge/CB on their board at 23, guess what? They’re going defense and will grab one of the OL at 34. 

To be clear, I'm expressing MY ideology.  Not what I necessarily expect JD to do.

I won't be surprised at all if JD picks CB/Edge at #23 and then CB/Edge at #34.

Cynical as I am about this franchise, it's almost what I expect at this point.  To draft another top QB prospect then fail to support him with talent while continuing to chase the dragon of the "Win by Elite Super Unit Defense" idea we've been chasing for most of the last 20 years.

What will be, will be.  I'm advocating for what I think it should be, just like everyone else here.

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It all depends on how the draft breaks. There could be a run on OL players in the teens. If the top 5 OL guys are gone, I’d draft Kwity Paye. After the first 5 OL guys, the next 15 guys seem about the same. If Paye is gone, just trade back.

If we do start to see a run on OL, I would want JD to trade up. AVT and Jenkins might not last to 23. Just go up and get one of them.

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To me...this would make a cool draft...

If the value isn't there at #23, I'd prefer Jets trade down to around 28-32, and pick up a 2nd and/or 3rd rounder.  You can then pretty much justify picking whoever you wanted at #34 with that late 1st pick.  You get the bonus of someone you wanted at #34, for an extra 5th year.  Alex Leatherwood...Creed Humphrey...Dillon Radunz...Jalen Mayfield are just a few names that could be there at 28-32.  

With two picks in the 2nd.  I'd like Jets taking a much needed playmaker at TE like Pat Freiremuth.  Jets need more balance to this offense.  He's a solid blocker too.  Herndon has been a disappointment.  A Macc pic not likely to get a 2nd contract from JD.  You can then use the other 2nd for one of WR-CB-LB-Edge.   

And have at least two...maybe three 3rd rounders...to finish up filling the remaining needs still undrafted.   You should get starters and future starters from this round of the draft.

Using the remaining three picks in the  4th-5th rounds for BPA at RB-OL-WR-CB.

6th...take a kicker. 

Not perfect...but I'd really like if something like this happened.     

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35 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  I think we trade up to the last teens , if possible, grab one of the stud linemen.  And then look to trade back from 34 to recoup some draft capital back to fill other needs.

Bold prediction.  We will not make a pick at either 23 or 34.

Yeah I don’t think they’re picking at 23 or 34 either. It looks like 34 is a perfect spot to move back and I think they’ll be able to do a really good job filling needs with fits in the 23/34 area.

Days one and two have lots of nice fits for offense, and I expect a lot of activity on day three. Some on the offensive side of the ball too (fullback, maybe a slot receiver, developmental tackle and center if they don’t do it earlier) but they need to add a lot at linebacker, depth at safety where everybody but Davis is signed for one year, good spot to add zone corners, etc. Not to mention a kicker. 

Could justify upwards of 15 roles being addressed for depth/development on day three. Several will be addressed earlier and several won’t be addressed at all but man the roster needs so much work in areas even beyond the starters. The years of incompetent drafting really take a toll.

It’s funny I was skimming Brugler’s scouting reports for the linebackers who were captains and several of them had being too aggressive in the weaknesses. “All gas, no brakes”?

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3 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

To me...this would make a cool draft...

If the value isn't there at #23, I'd prefer Jets trade down to around 28-32, and pick up a 2nd and/or 3rd rounder.  You can then pretty much justify picking whoever you wanted at #34 with that late 1st pick.  You get the bonus of someone you wanted at #34, for an extra 5th year.  Alex Leatherwood...Creed Humphrey...Dillon Radunz...Jalen Mayfield are just a few names that could be there at 28-32.  

With two picks in the 2nd.  I'd like Jets taking a much needed playmaker at TE like Pat Freiremuth.  Jets need more balance to this offense.  He's a solid blocker too.  Herndon has been a disappointment.  A Macc pic not likely to get a 2nd contract from JD.  You can then use the other 2nd for one of WR-CB-LB-Edge.   

And have at least two...maybe three 3rd rounders...to finish up filling the remaining needs still undrafted.   You should get starters and future starters from this round of the draft.

Using the remaining three picks in the  4th-5th rounds for BPA at RB-OL-WR-CB.

6th...take a kicker. 

Not perfect...but I'd really like if something like this happened.     

I think linebacker will be addressed reasonably heavily, at least two picks, maybe just on day three. That depth chart is reasonably empty. Douglas did that last year when he knew he’d be able to address something in the draft and even then not to the extent that the depth chart has holes this year. Think he’s going to work with Saleh and they’ll go get some guys.

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10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

To be clear, I'm expressing MY ideology.  Not what I necessarily expect JD to do.

I won't be surprised at all if JD picks CB/Edge at #23 and then CB/Edge at #34.

Cynical as I am about this franchise, it's almost what I expect at this point.  To draft another top QB prospect then fail to support him with talent while continuing to chase the dragon of the "Win by Elite Super Unit Defense" idea we've been chasing for most of the last 20 years.

What will be, will be.  I'm advocating for what I think it should be, just like everyone else here.

The problem we all have is we’re shell shocked as Jets fans and expect the worst. We also have a lot longer memory of the missteps of this franchise then will a new GM/HC.  
 

I don’t think passing on a OL or going D at 23 represents more of the same old though. Like others have said, this team has holes and JD is playing the long game. Yes, the QB needs support, and getting rid of Gase for LaFlauer and improving our WRs we’re halfway there. JDs drafting a few OL and we’ll go into camp with battles up and down the line.

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8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

To be clear, I'm expressing MY ideology.  Not what I necessarily expect JD to do.

I won't be surprised at all if JD picks CB/Edge at #23 and then CB/Edge at #34.

Cynical as I am about this franchise, it's almost what I expect at this point.  To draft another top QB prospect then fail to support him with talent while continuing to chase the dragon of the "Win by Elite Super Unit Defense" idea we've been chasing for most of the last 20 years.

What will be, will be.  I'm advocating for what I think it should be, just like everyone else here.

I'll be disappointed if he goes Edge/CB with his next two picks, but it would be less soul crushing than taking a RB that high. That's taking a safety at #6 overall stupid for a 2-14 football team. 

The roster is not going to be completed after this draft and, even if they went offense with their first five picks, the offense wouldn't be done, either. Joe Douglas needs to (and I'm sure, will) take the long view approach here. He has five picks in the first three rounds again next year. This year I'm hoping for competitive. After next year's draft, I hope to be thinking playoff competitive. You need players on both sides of the ball for that. Having an offense that can score points is obviously critical, but so is a defense that can disrupt the passing game. 

I'm sure he's going into the draft understanding that the league is filled with quality, often all pro level starters at RB, TE, & OG that were found in rounds three thru five, and he has five picks in those rounds, as well. Addressing premium positions with premium picks is the smart way to play it. And by taking a LT & WR 1 & 2 last year, and clearly taking a QB #1 this year, I feel like he does understand that - so far. 

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49 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Your entire post depends on knowing who will be available at #34 when you pick at #23. 

The Draft doesn't work that way, nor does (I'll repeat) the cute little 7.4 vs. 7.1 rate, 8.1 vs. 7.4 rate nonsense matter to me whatsoever.  More Fantasy Football gibberish of little on-field meaning, remind me wasn't Gholston a 9.6 on that stupid scale?

At #23 I pick the very best, most impactful, hard to get Offensive Player I possibly can, so I can build around and support my #2 Pick QB.

If I presume I could get just as good a Guard at #34 as I can at #23, then I look at WR, and RB, or TE.  Or I consider trading down for more picks and letting someone else get their CB or LB or Edge while I get more picks to fix our thin-as-hell depth problems.

I don't pick the CB because you tell me the CB is rated 8.1 and the RB is rated 8.0, or because CB is 1.1 on the "premium position matrix" and WR is only 1.0 on that matrix.

Fans, Sports Media (and to be fair plenty of NFL GM's) have incorrectly convinced themselves that these numbers matter more than building a team that can actually play and produce points, which produces wins.  Our previous GM's were notorious for this obsession on "BAP Value".  

But to answer your question Sperm, in your scenario, I draft the 7.4 rated O-Lineman at 23 and I draft a WR (like Terrence Marshall) at #34, and I don't draft a damned CB when I can sign Sherman for just money and fill that position just fine for the short term.

The need to prioritize Offense is now.  Not forever.  If we still need a CB we can draft one in the mid-rounds, and if we still need a CB next offseason, maybe then we'll be a better, more balanced team, and we can spend high draft capital on a CB Then.

NOW we must support our new QB to the maximum extent possible.  If that means we miss on a 0.2 rating difference between a CB and OL or WR, so be it.  You don't win games drafting a LB that plays the same position as Mosely over a OL or WR because "well, we got slightly better value tho....".

Fair enough. I don't agree, since I view them both as major holes and value a guard less than a CB, but that's fine. 

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