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draft strategy, where's the value at 23?


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1 hour ago, derp said:

I think linebacker will be addressed reasonably heavily, at least two picks, maybe just on day three. That depth chart is reasonably empty. Douglas did that last year when he knew he’d be able to address something in the draft and even then not to the extent that the depth chart has holes this year. Think he’s going to work with Saleh and they’ll go get some guys.

I'd be fine with that.  Not sure they would double dip at both CB and LB.   I'd hope then they just draft one CB.  Then go in FA and get General Shermon to lead the secondary.  Or Admiral Nelson.  Either one makes sense to me.

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The NFL Draft isn't a competition about who got the best "value" according to pundits, talking heads and fans on draft night. Obsessing over "getting value" is a great way to build a lopsided los

The value at #23 is to make the best move to support the new QB.

What if the difference between the OL on the board at 23, after a run on them in the teens, isn't significantly different than at 34 (or at 32 or at wherever the team might move up to a bit)? Wha

6 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

I'd be fine with that.  Not sure they would double dip at both CB and LB.   I'd hope then they just draft one CB.  Then go in FA and get General Shermon to lead the secondary.  Or Admiral Nelson.  Either one makes sense to me.

Corner depth chart is more full than it gets credit for. Can question how good it is for sure but a lot of those guys project better in zone anyway. I guess they could draft two corners but I’d be less surprised if they draft no corners.

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Also if they do move up, I know OL is important and I don’t think they’ll compromise their prototypes...but I do wonder if a 2x team captain Heisman winner who did all that while being skinny becomes an interesting potential value of he starts to slide because he’s light. Give that #2 pick a go-to guy.

Entirely depends where they have him evaluated but Smith’s a guy folks were projecting at #2 early in this process off that season. Not sure anyone will be surprised if he continues to be productive if he goes in the teens.

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1 minute ago, derp said:

Also if they do move up, I know OL is important and I don’t think they’ll compromise their prototypes...but I do wonder if a 2x team captain Heisman winner who did all that while being skinny becomes an interesting potential value of he starts to slide because he’s light. Give that #2 pick a go-to guy.

Entirely depends where they have him evaluated but Smith’s a guy folks were projecting at #2 early in this process off that season. Not sure anyone will be surprised if he continues to be productive if he goes in the teens.

I honestly have no clue where Smith might go.  Talent alone says he should be a lock for top 10.  I love the guy as a player-- even though I haven't quite forgiven him from the TD reception in OT of the Natty to beat us in 2018.  Still hurts thinking about that game. 

He is such a dynamic playmaker, but is a 165 lb WR really going to go top 10 of the draft, and will he be able to stand up to the pounding of the NFL.

I have no idea where he goes our how his NFL career will play out.

 

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2 minutes ago, Lith said:

I honestly have no clue where Smith might go.  Talent alone says he should be a lock for top 10.  I love the guy as a player-- even though I haven't quite forgiven him from the TD reception in OT of the Natty to beat us in 2018.  Still hurts thinking about that game. 

He is such a dynamic playmaker, but is a 165 lb WR really going to go top 10 of the draft, and will he be able to stand up to the pounding of the NFL.

I have no idea where he goes our how his NFL career will play out.

 

My guess is he slides into the teens and he outperforms the draft position. Obviously guys are good in college but just don’t fit into the typical physical mold that most NFL guys at their positions do.

In addition to being absurdly productive, Smith just didn’t seem to be bothered by physicality in college. Now that could certainly change going up a level, as could begin nicked up. My guess is it won’t, I think he compensates with his abnormal arm length and just by being physically tough.

I was banging the “he won’t go *that* early because he’s slight” drum but once you get somewhere around 15 I think risk and reward start to match up. Doesn’t hurt that he’s apparently just an awesome dude. Douglas is oddly a mix of a few former GM’s/coaches but I kind of buy into the value of creating a good culture and seems like Smith would contribute positively to that.

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1 hour ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  I think we trade up to the last teens , if possible, grab one of the stud linemen.  And then look to trade back from 34 to recoup some draft capital back to fill other needs.

Bold prediction.  We will not make a pick at either 23 or 34.

it may be no man's land but many teams have been able to put together long stretches of success while picking in this range.  as for what the jets should do, they have so many places to put a top player it's not hard to think the best player available.  since they need oline, cb, or even edge they're gong to have lots of choices.  and since they could also use a wr, te, and lb i think they'll be able to do pretty well.  one thing i've noticed is when people agonize about this fella or that fella not being available at 23 i just have to wonder if that's necessarily true in a deep draft.  if 5 qb's get taken before pick 20 then that only leaves 17 other players/positions being picked before 23.  and as deep positions get taken that just means the player at 23 will be one of the top players at his position.  not such a bad place to be in.

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

- Quinnen rushed the passer well last year.

- Jets sign Carl Lawson to a big deal a pass rusher

- The Jets sign Sheldon Rankins a pass rushing DT

- The Jets sign Vinny Curry, a pass rusher

- The Jets draft Jabari Zungia last year, a pass rusher.

Pass rusher pick early is a total luxury pick for this team.

think a stud MLB before the end of day 2 is a must.  Not talking about edge guys.  Not sure Mosley is going to be that guy.  And Cashman is almost out of the league with injuries.  Depth is abysmal.

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34 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

think a stud MLB before the end of day 2 is a must.  Not talking about edge guys.  Not sure Mosley is going to be that guy.  And Cashman is almost out of the league with injuries.  Depth is abysmal.

Low low low priority a frigin LB.  You are pandering to the coach if you have to get him a stud lb when we have a half dozen other positions more important.

Our LB play last year though not pro bowl level was okay with jags like neville hewitt.

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18 minutes ago, Larz said:

You can’t draft a Disney star QB and not come out of this draft without pass protectors 

as in plural 

Bingo!  I really hope JD is planning to get two new OL starters, probably RT and IOL, early in the draft (somewhere in rounds 1-3).  If you take the young QB at #2, jump start building the line NOW.

Teven Jenkins seems almost ideal b/c he could start at RT right away or RG if Fant holds him off in camp. I'm still dreaming of Jenkins and Creed in rounds 1 and 2, but I know it won't happen.

I also hope a third developmental OL is taken in the mid late rounds as well.

My fear is that he might do what he did last year, take one impact starter early (#23 or move up) and then a developmental OL later in the mid rounds.

 

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4 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

Lots being said about what we should do after Wilson... obviously we have needs at CB, LB, OL (center/guard and right tackle), RB.

Have done lots of mocks and the way the board falls, I think the premier tackles will be gone by 23 (including Jenkins), as will the premier CBs.  Farley may fall, but I see him as a mid-round pick given injury and opt-out concerns.  And I think the sweet spot for tackles and center/guards may be round 3 for us (perhaps top of round 2; targeting Radunz, Eichenberg, Meinerz--or even later Drew Dalman, Walker Little), although I'd prefer a playmaker there (Etienne, or a WR that falls), or a CB from the second tier.  To me, I see the LB's stacking now in the 20s, and regardless of what you think about Mosley, we have needs as we switch to the 4-3.  I could easily see LB being the value in the 20s.  Nick Bolton, JOK, Zaven Collins.  Thoughts?

The 2nd two picks #23 and #34 should be BAP at CB/LB/IOL/RB/WR since we can use upgrades at all of those positions. If the CB and IOL with value at those picks are not there then get those positions with the two 3rd round picks and as you said take a very good prospect at OLB and a perhaps top sill position player that drops lower than they should like one of the top RBs or WRs. We have a lot of holes to fill so we should be afforded the luxury of BAP in our areas of needs (without taking bad injury risks like players with injuries every year in college, have had back surgery, 3+ concussions, etc.) we are talking about a number 1 and number 2 draft pick and at that level it is not worth the risk. Like CB Hall last year, if Jets want to take a flier on a badly injured player coming back fine since flushing a 5th rounder down the toilet is much better than doing it for a 1st or 2nd day draft pick. We badly need to hit with 4 out of 5 of our 5 picks in rounds 1-3 and then the 5 picks on day 3 we need at least 2-3 to be ST players and maybe develop as backups/depth role players. We desperately need at least 6-7 of these draft picks to help this team and perhaps at least 2-3 to be starter. We know the #2 pick will be a start at QB since we do not have a QB on the roster that has even taken a pre-season snap let alone a regular season snap. Even if we pick an IOL in round 3 I expect that guy to hopefully win one of the G spots since unless we pick up a G via trade or after the draft that maybe some team cuts for cap purposes, between Lewis, Van Roton, and Feeney, Clarke, etc. that motley crew would not have a starter among them on any other team even a bad team, which was one of the reasons we were so bad last year starting Guards like that which are likely on slightly better then most practice squad Guards around the league. 

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4 hours ago, Big_Slick said:

The value at #23 is to make the best move to support the new QB.

If there seems to be a lot of good players in the 2nd and 3rd round, if #23 rolls around and Jets do not see much of a difference in players that are left on the board between there and down to the 3rd round it might be worth seeing if another team covets a player at that slot that is will to give us a 2nd and 3rd round pick that allows us to get a an extra player in rounds 2 and 3.

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Any team that picks a falling devonta smith outside of the top 10 or 12 will be laughing like hyenas over some dumb team that takes a zaven collins, micha parsons or jamin davis over him.

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

The NFL Draft isn't a competition about who got the best "value" according to pundits, talking heads and fans on draft night.

Obsessing over "getting value" is a great way to build a lopsided loser of a team on gameday.

Every draft for years our Fans have said we got great "value" on draft night, for the most part.  Yet our team is consistently horrible, and fielded one of the worst, least effective Offenses in the league for a literal decade+.  Every one of our lolGM's were lauded by fans on this very site as getting "great value" in the moment, what has that done for us?  We've been horrific.

Pthhh.  I spit on the entire concept of "getting value". 

I want PLAYERS, impact players where we need them most, perceived "value" be damned.

And that, right now, means OFFENSE

Impact O-linemen to max-protect our new franchise-defining QB for once, impact playmakers at the O-skill positions so we score some damn points and support that young QB for once.

There WILL be an offensive player worth picking at #23 and #34, make no mistake.  The so-called "value" is nothing more than pundits and talking heads cute little rating of an Edge as a fraction of a point or two higher than the Offensive player we actually desperately need to improve this team.  That's not actual value, for our team, on the field, it's Draft Fantasy Football, a silly side game for numbers obsessives.

JD should not be swayed by hypothetical "value". 

He should be swayed by building an actual working offense around our soon-to-be-franchise-defining-for-next-3>5-years-minimum #2 Pick QB.

giphy.gif

 

So, Warfish, , I completely agree with you and disagree with you at the same time.

Let me explain:

As you are well aware, the draft is set up so that a player you like in the first round will not be sitting there in the 2nd round waiting for you to take him.  If the player you take in the first round is available to you in the 2nd round, then you should not take that player, and instead take a player which is graded higher, and still a player of need. You can then take that same player in the 2nd round, and the player you picked in the 1st round, who you also liked, would not be there for the taking in the 2nd round.

This is the way the draft is supposed to work.  If you take a 3rd round player with the 23rd pick, then you got lousy value and your team will probably end up sucking, if you do that on a consistent basis.

Where I agree with you is the following:

If you like a player at #34 for instance, and the next time you have a pick is at #66, and you don't believe he will be there at #66, then you should take him at #34.  Even though the player in question is rated the #60 best player in the draft, you don't worry about value, since the player you like will most likely not be there at 66.  I don't care that the team will be blasted for not getting the best value at the pick, since the value in this instance is meaningless, if you stand to lose the player if you don't take him at #34.

One of the many reasons that the Jets have been awful over the years, is that they have taken players who were not only bad players, but bad values when they took them.  For instance, taking Hackenburg in the 2nd round was a bonehead move, but taking a risk on Hackenburg in the 6th round is not a bad move when you think about the hope that he could one day turn into something.

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Fair enough. I don't agree, since I view them both as major holes and value a guard less than a CB, but that's fine. 

Disagree Sperm. Both are equally important but given the projected improvement of the pass rush this year with free agent acquisitions and Quinnen making more strides to becoming a perennial pro bowler corner to me is not a position which I would invest in too early ( if Surtain drops might change my mind ) as pass rush will cover up the weakness that is the cornerback position but it truly is imperative that we get day one starting caliber guards so they can run the ball and take pressure off rookie QB to a certain extent which also  keeps defense fresh. Please no more dam three and outs. 

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

The NFL Draft isn't a competition about who got the best "value" according to pundits, talking heads and fans on draft night.

Obsessing over "getting value" is a great way to build a lopsided loser of a team on gameday.

Every draft for years our Fans have said we got great "value" on draft night, for the most part.  Yet our team is consistently horrible, and fielded one of the worst, least effective Offenses in the league for a literal decade+.  Every one of our lolGM's were lauded by fans on this very site as getting "great value" in the moment, what has that done for us?  We've been horrific.

Pthhh.  I spit on the entire concept of "getting value". 

I want PLAYERS, impact players where we need them most, perceived "value" be damned.

And that, right now, means OFFENSE

Impact O-linemen to max-protect our new franchise-defining QB for once, impact playmakers at the O-skill positions so we score some damn points and support that young QB for once.

There WILL be an offensive player worth picking at #23 and #34, make no mistake.  The so-called "value" is nothing more than pundits and talking heads cute little rating of an Edge as a fraction of a point or two higher than the Offensive player we actually desperately need to improve this team.  That's not actual value, for our team, on the field, it's Draft Fantasy Football, a silly side game for numbers obsessives.

JD should not be swayed by hypothetical "value". 

He should be swayed by building an actual working offense around our soon-to-be-franchise-defining-for-next-3>5-years-minimum #2 Pick QB.

giphy.gif

 

Seed change for me too and I'm on board.  None the less when you talk about value (please see the bold in your post) there is more too it. 

Our last 2 GMs were god awful.  However our last 2 HCs were worse than that.

Many of our players were suffering from the square peg in the round hole syndrome (not to mention poor game plan, etc.).  

So almost our entire roster is a black hole.  No light escapes.  

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We have 22 picks over the next 2 years obsessing about value at this point is fools gold.  Trust your scouts and take the best lineman....then take the best player at 34.  Way too many people wanna get cute and collect 6th rounders.  We should actually be using those 5th and 6th rounders to move up.

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3 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

Seed change for me too and I'm on board.  None the less when you talk about value (please see the bold in your post) there is more too it. 

Our last 2 GMs were god awful.  However our last 2 HCs were worse than that.

Many of our players were suffering from the square peg in the round hole syndrome (not to mention poor game plan, etc.).  

So almost our entire roster is a black hole.  No light escapes.  

Aye, certainly true, it's hard to pinpoint the specific foul stench whilst everything in view is in full on decomp.

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The Jets just spent a decade using premium picks on safeties and defensive tackles, and there are still Jets fans arguing that "value" should not be a consideration when drafting.  It's mind boggling.

I want to see the Jets make a heavy investment in building around the rookie quarterback and putting him in the best position to succeed.  In my opinion, the focus should be around OL, WR, RB, and TE.  However, this does not mean that a premium pick needs to be spent on some of these positions.

From everything I have read, this is a strong and deep class for OL.  Starting guards and centers are found in the mid rounds all the time.  The same can be said for running backs.  The Jets should absolutely take advantage of the value that is presented with a strong and deep class.

Joe Douglas needs to make smart picks that are cost effective.  Good players can be found all over the draft.  The Jets just need to start picking the right ones for the first time in over a decade.

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7 hours ago, CSNY said:

Disagree Sperm. Both are equally important but given the projected improvement of the pass rush this year with free agent acquisitions and Quinnen making more strides to becoming a perennial pro bowler corner to me is not a position which I would invest in too early ( if Surtain drops might change my mind ) as pass rush will cover up the weakness that is the cornerback position but it truly is imperative that we get day one starting caliber guards so they can run the ball and take pressure off rookie QB to a certain extent which also  keeps defense fresh. Please no more dam three and outs. 

Guards and corners are not equally important. You can make an argument, if you like, that it may be more important of an addition to a particular team; but corners are inherently more valuable than guards. You have none and you lose; sometimes if you only have one (or two) you still lose; you can win the super bowl with two below-average guards. 

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Guards and corners are not equally important. You can make an argument, if you like, that it may be more important of an addition to a particular team; but corners are inherently more valuable than guards. You have none and you lose; sometimes if you only have one (or two) you still lose; you can win the super bowl with two below-average guards. 

IMHO defense is easier to fix than offense.  I'd MUCH rather have a high scoring team who give it up on defense than the other way around.  Can we for once fix the offense first.  Once that HAS COME TOGETHER then fix the defense.

Please, let's try this for once.    

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14 hours ago, Warfish said:

Gholston was considered the BIG VALUE pick BECAUSE he was a "Premium value position whose workouts were off the charts for potential" Edge.  He's the literal poster-child for why "perceived value" is a dumb idea.

No one is saying "take a 5th round rated Guard at #23 because derp need".

We're saying "take the mid-1st round grade O-lineman or WR (or yes, even a playmaking RB) over a similarly mid-1st round grade LB or CB or EDGE".  

Some of us who actually watched him play and watched him tank in the championship game abd didn’t want to draft him had a different point of view about him.

most busts are need picks but just my opinion.

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8 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Guards and corners are not equally important. You can make an argument, if you like, that it may be more important of an addition to a particular team; but corners are inherently more valuable than guards. You have none and you lose; sometimes if you only have one (or two) you still lose; you can win the super bowl with two below-average guards. 

On this particular team we need guards more than corners. That is not to say that corners are not important nor that the corners currently on the team could use an upgrade in talent but as we have seen especially over the last few years we need offensive line help more than defensive backs. I believe winning football teams have in general strong lines 

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11 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

The Jets just spent a decade using premium picks on safeties and defensive tackles, and there are still Jets fans arguing that "value" should not be a consideration when drafting.  It's mind boggling.

I want to see the Jets make a heavy investment in building around the rookie quarterback and putting him in the best position to succeed.  In my opinion, the focus should be around OL, WR, RB, and TE.  However, this does not mean that a premium pick needs to be spent on some of these positions.

From everything I have read, this is a strong and deep class for OL.  Starting guards and centers are found in the mid rounds all the time.  The same can be said for running backs.  The Jets should absolutely take advantage of the value that is presented with a strong and deep class.

Joe Douglas needs to make smart picks that are cost effective.  Good players can be found all over the draft.  The Jets just need to start picking the right ones for the first time in over a decade.

The other thing that drives me nuts is that all those first round picks spent by Maccagnan, Idzik, and Tanny are being used as a reason to not take a defender at #23, even high value positions like Edge & CB. Well guess what? Outside of Quinnen Williams, all those first round picks are gone! The Jets got two firsts for their 220lb pass rusher last year, would it be so bad if they used one of those picks on a 265lb Edge? Or a player in the secondary who could cover? 

As you say, IOL/RB/TE are positions where the NFL finds starters in the middle rounds each and every year. The Jets have five picks in rounds 3-5 (before Trader Joe starts trading and adding more picks), including two in the third, that's plenty of ammo to target those positions. Premium picks should be for premium positions. The Jets took their LT last year and will be taking their QB at #2, that leaves Edge/WR/CB, and maybe the right Sam/Mike LB (... ? although the collective head exploding from that one might be too much to bear). I'm certainly down with the future RT who plays RG, there, too, but if they're looking at pure guards they can find those later. 

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Where is the value? From the Mock Drafts you all read the value will likely look like an Edge Player. 

However the Jets have no intention of drafting edge at 23. Not happening. Its kind of funny that guys waste their time writing these super long post without taking the 30 seconds to see who the Jets have visited yet.

Spoiler Alert - Were not looking for Edge early. 

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The player I most want to come away with in this draft is Creed Humphrey.  No he is not the best player or in a flashy position but he is at least a potential Mangold version 2 as far as being a 10 year starter pro bowl calibre center.

The Jets have had absolute schlock at center since Mangold retired.  I'd consider taking him at 23, better yet we trade down and take him.

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9 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

IMHO defense is easier to fix than offense.  I'd MUCH rather have a high scoring team who give it up on defense than the other way around.  Can we for once fix the offense first.  Once that HAS COME TOGETHER then fix the defense.

Please, let's try this for once.    

I don't agree this is a binary choice, where it's simply: we draft two OLmen and start 2 rookies on the line = high scoring team.

I definitely don't agree that there's some obvious smart solution to unilaterally build one side of the ball and then work our way to the other side (also unilaterally), asking 3-4 rookies to play together on each side of the ball in back-to-back seasons (and that's if everything goes according to plans).

IMO that looks good on paper but isn't going to look so good on the field. Teams need balance, and coaches need veterans on the field. All the veteran players & coaches didn't come here to sacrifice themselves and risk permanent injuries just for the betterment of rookie tryouts. 

I get the fantasy, but I think it's just that: a fantasy.

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10 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

IMHO defense is easier to fix than offense.  I'd MUCH rather have a high scoring team who give it up on defense than the other way around.  Can we for once fix the offense first.  Once that HAS COME TOGETHER then fix the defense.

Please, let's try this for once.    

true enough the jets pathetic offense of the past few seasons has really made the defense seem much worse than it really is.  the key is to determine the root cause of the low scoring and it's not just because gase was coach.  the qb play wasn't so great and neither were the skill players and oline.  so the jets need to pick apart each phase and address it in turn.  imo the oline was bad mainly because they didn't have the same people playing each week and it was just a weird season because they ween't able to practice effectively.  the wrs have been addressed in free agency and hopefully won't have as many injuries.  the qb?  oh i'm sure there are plenty of people that wanted to keep darnold for all of the usual arguments but there is no reason to think that position couldn't be upgraded.  hence the prospective drafting of wilson.  but this doesn't mean the jets should go all offense in the draft.  they made some strides in free agency to address those problems and they still have some holes to fill on the defensive side.  so if there's a top defensive skill player available they should pick him.

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4 hours ago, CSNY said:

On this particular team we need guards more than corners. That is not to say that corners are not important nor that the corners currently on the team could use an upgrade in talent but as we have seen especially over the last few years we need offensive line help more than defensive backs. I believe winning football teams have in general strong lines 

I disagree with the premise that guards (guards, plural) must be only found in round 1, or even that this is the norm among playoff teams, and naught but tragedy is guaranteed to ensue if there's deviation from that strategy. FFS half the probowl guards were taken after round 2; it's totally unlike LTs where it's really hard to get the same once you're into the mid-rounds, because they just get scooped up earlier in the draft because everybody wants some, but the Jets don't need a LT. 

It's not as simple as a cookbook recipe where: draft guard early, then profit. This team needs a lot more than that, and it's too overly-simplistic to suggest that the defense doesn't have a major influence on the offense and how predictable the playcalling then becomes.

I keep using this example, but it's a good one. Go look at the Chiefs' starting OL from week 6 onward (they lost Osemele in week 5, and then Schwartz got knocked out just after the week 6 game got underway) through the AFCCG. With their remaining healthy starters in, they didn't lose another game from from week 6 until the SB. Over that span, they had one offensive lineman who was even average, never mind above-average. One. They beat Tampa with that OL in late November. Once Fisher went down & they were now down to two backup tackles and a backup + two below-average iOL starters, then that became too much (especially up against a defense that good that was firing on all cylinders).

If the Jets' second pick wasn't until round 3, like after they drafted Darnold, I'd probably feel differently. That isn't the case - by a long shot - so I don't think at 23 they're required to be so pigeonholed at guard no matter how the draft unfolds. If the value's there, as there's a run on edge/cb before OL, then by all means take an OL at 23. If a unique opportunity presents itself, even move up for an OL pick.

So I don't at all object to taking an OL prospect at 23. Just that it isn't 100% automatic the best move for the team to make no matter what. See who's on the board first.

Teams that consider themselves so desperate for a single position address perceived holes in FA; they don't force their hands in the draft a month before they even know who'll be there. 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

The other thing that drives me nuts is that all those first round picks spent by Maccagnan, Idzik, and Tanny are being used as a reason to not take a defender at #23, even high value positions like Edge & CB. Well guess what? Outside of Quinnen Williams, all those first round picks are gone! The Jets got two firsts for their 220lb pass rusher last year, would it be so bad if they used one of those picks on a 265lb Edge? Or a player in the secondary who could cover? 

As you say, IOL/RB/TE are positions where the NFL finds starters in the middle rounds each and every year. The Jets have five picks in rounds 3-5 (before Trader Joe starts trading and adding more picks), including two in the third, that's plenty of ammo to target those positions. Premium picks should be for premium positions. The Jets took their LT last year and will be taking their QB at #2, that leaves Edge/WR/CB, and maybe the right Sam/Mike LB (... ? although the collective head exploding from that one might be too much to bear). I'm certainly down with the future RT who plays RG, there, too, but if they're looking at pure guards they can find those later. 

Taking an edge *would* be fine but this edge class is honestly kind of butt, next year’s looks good, and they have two first round picks next year. I wouldn’t be up in arms about it or anything but waiting seems more prudent. This year feels to me like a bunch of second round guys getting propped up due to positional value and a weak class. Possible I’m dead wrong and maybe teams view edge counting stats in a pandemic season differently.

Douglas definitely seemed to draft based on the strength of the class last year. Curious if he does the same this year. Figure long-term roster building on a terrible team - he can take whatever is good in the given class and it’ll be helpful. Much as I love Tommy Tremble’s fit for example this TE class is weak beyond Pitts and teams who need tight ends are probably going to reach. Same with the outside receivers this year - there aren’t many so it’ll push guys up. Lots of slots though - I’d guess he take a slot if he addresses the position at all.

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The Jets and oline picks since the 2006 D'Brick, Mangold draft spanning 4 GMs:

Jacob Bender - T - 6th

Nate Garner - T - 7th

Matt Slauson - G - 6th

Vlad Ducasse - T - 2nd

Robert Griffin - G - 6th

William Campbell - T - 6th

Oday Aboushi - T - 5th

Brian Winters - G - 3rd

Dakota Dozier - C/G - 4th

Jarvis Harrison - G - 5th

Brandon Shell - T - 5th

Chum Edoga - T - 3rd

Cam Clarke - T/G - 4th

Mekhi Becton - T - 1st

Yeah, we can build the oline with lower picks cause you can get guards or centers anywhere!

 

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59 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I disagree with the premise that guards (guards, plural) must be only found in round 1, or even that this is the norm among playoff teams, and naught but tragedy is guaranteed to ensue if there's deviation from that strategy. FFS half the probowl guards were taken after round 2; it's totally unlike LTs where it's really hard to get the same once you're into the mid-rounds, because they just get scooped up earlier in the draft because everybody wants some, but the Jets don't need a LT. 

It's not as simple as a cookbook recipe where: draft guard early, then profit. This team needs a lot more than that, and it's too overly-simplistic to suggest that the defense doesn't have a major influence on the offense and how predictable the playcalling then becomes.

I keep using this example, but it's a good one. Go look at the Chiefs' starting OL from week 6 onward (they lost Osemele in week 5, and then Schwartz got knocked out just after the week 6 game got underway) through the AFCCG. With their remaining healthy starters in, they didn't lose another game from from week 6 until the SB. Over that span, they had one offensive lineman who was even average, never mind above-average. One. They beat Tampa with that OL in late November. Once Fisher went down & they were now down to two backup tackles and a backup + two below-average iOL starters, then that became too much (especially up against a defense that good that was firing on all cylinders).

If the Jets' second pick wasn't until round 3, like after they drafted Darnold, I'd probably feel differently. That isn't the case - by a long shot - so I don't think at 23 they're required to be so pigeonholed at guard no matter how the draft unfolds. If the value's there, as there's a run on edge/cb before OL, then by all means take an OL at 23. If a unique opportunity presents itself, even move up for an OL pick.

So I don't at all object to taking an OL prospect at 23. Just that it isn't 100% automatic the best move for the team to make no matter what. See who's on the board first.

Teams that consider themselves so desperate for a single position address perceived holes in FA; they don't force their hands in the draft a month before they even know who'll be there. 

And yet the Jets did NOTHING for oline or CB in FA this past year.

Where they did add significant Free agents was at pass rusher, LB, WR

The Jets (once again as always) spent more Fa resources on the defense than the offense and struck out on any oline FA's

To 'balance' this team build wise we need to draft oline and CB's if you want balance.

Also if you goal is to treat the oline like the jets have done the past 15 years then you use the ho hum we can get good oline later.  The oline has not only been grossly neglected by this team over the last 15 years, it has been a big part of the offense and QBs failing as well.

If I am going to take a chance on using a high pick on a position group then at this point in  time for the NY Jets I will err going oline rather than any other position group.

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