College Wilson vs. College Darnold

[The Crusher]

10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If you think QBASE has any value, consider that they have Wilson pretty close to Lawrence with their score.  Meanwhile, they had Darnold as the 4th best QB in 2018, miles behind Baker Mayfield, significantly behind Jackson and Rosen, and only a little better than Mason Rudolph.  

This was the % chance they had of potential outcomes for each, with Lawrence thrown in as well:

Darnold

Bust	51.9%
Adequate Starter	29.0%
Upper Tier	15.1%
Elite	4.1%

 

Wilson

Bust	29.0%
Adequate Starter	26.6%
Upper Tier	24.3%
Elite	20.2%

 

Lawrence

Bust	25.4%
Adequate Starter	25.5%
Upper Tier	24.9%
Elite	24.2%

 

So essentially they give Wilson a 44 % chance of being a worthwhile pick at # 2, since upper tier/elite is what you're looking for there.  You don't draft an "adequate starter" in the 1-3 overall range.

Darnold they gave a 19 % chance.  Lawrence, 49 %.

That’s awesome on it’s own obviously but we all know all biggest part of any rookie QB having success is also so very much connected to where he go’s. I think Wilson is very susceptible to that fact. Still think he needs to sit a bit , but yes he is certainly a better prospect than Sam. I just hope he’s coming into a much better situation than Sam did here. I know people will say he is but we really don’t have much except hope to base that on. This team and coaching staff is greener than the color that represents them. 

[Biggs]

5 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Your making no sense. Just read what people post. That isn't  disappointment. Disappointment is not going winless to get Trevor around here. People have wanted Sam gone since last season. Gase held the team together? Here is what I think would hold the team together.  Winning football games. Gase was horrible at that. He also scape goated Williams for that loss against the Raiders. He had to know what that call was. If he thought that was a fireable offense, why didn't  he stop it or call a TO to talk it over. That right there makes Gase just about the worst coach in football. 

And now you bring up Salary. If you are looking at this on a salary level, That is the biggest reason of all to move on from Sam and I say this as a guy that supported Sam and I still do but the clock had run out on him. There was not enough upside in keeping him and the floor was through the basement if he did not improve. Resetting the salary  clock with a new QB who has similar or even more upside is by far a no brainer when looking at it like that.

 

Gase did a great job in year 1.  Terrible team, injury riddled with bad QB play.  They got off to as bad a start as possible.  They held together and strung together wins, they didn't fold up.  

Sam's salary this year and next with the option is cheap.  You couple that with a haul in draft picks for skill position players locked up on rookie deals and it was as cheap to keep Sam as it is to draft a rookie.  The salary cap is going up dramatically next year and Sam would be roughly 18 million.  If you think he's a starting QB and you could get an extra couple of picks this year and next in the first round you're looking up starters on rookie salaries.  

The reset of the QB salary only matters if you ignore the fact that anyone else you pick in the first round is also locked down.   If you're talking multiple first round picks the reset is pretty minor and may actually have favored keeping Sam and taking the option.

[More Cowbell]

4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

If he’s as good as you say he’s worth paying.  Especially given how little it would have cost to acquire him via trade.  
No one traded for him because they didn’t think he was worth it and there were better options.  Carolina traded because they had no viable option and haven’t picked up his option because if the 4th or 5th QB is there at 8 they’re taking him.  

Dude, you are smarter than this. The 9ers are better off with a cheap QB with a lot of upside than Sam. Anyone they draft is not going to be as good as Jimmy out of the gate. 

As far as Sam, nobody knows if he is good or is bad but what they do know is picking him up comes with a lot of risk, much more risk than drafting Fields or Wilson. That is why the 9ers would rather spend draft capital on a player they feel they can develop rather than take a broken QB  that nobody  is really sure about,, not even the Jets who watched him and coached him (if you want to call what the Jets did coaching) for 3 years. It was so bad here that If you were going to sabotage  a rookie QB, would you do anything different than what the Jets did to Sam? IMO, no, you couldn't.  

The Carolina move makes sense because actually Sam isn't  that expensive when you really think about it and you can move on in 2 years. And do you really think Carolina traded all those picks so they could let Sam walk in a year? What you are saying is Carolina is incredibly  stupid and I don't  believe that at all. 

[More Cowbell]

15 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Gase did a great job in year 1.  Terrible team, injury riddled with bad QB play.  They got off to as bad a start as possible.  They held together and strung together wins, they didn't fold up.  

Ok, you are obviously  drinking the Kool Aid. We strung together  wins against the worst defensive teams in the league that season. Anyone who points to to that as a good job by Gase is just not being realistic.  

[Biggs]

3 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Ok, you are obviously  drinking the Kool Aid. We strung together  wins against the worst defensive teams in the league that season. Anyone who points to to that as a good job by Gase is just not being realistic.  

Bad teams that hate the head coach where the HC is the worst ever don't win games in the NFL.  

[Warfish]

It's funny reading JN Posters who literally proclaimed Darnold the greatest prospect since Luck a few years ago.....now trying to convince us that Darnold wasn't really that great a prospect, but that Wilson (who wasn't even on the NFL 1st Round Radar a year ago) is REALLY the greatest prospect to ever be available to the Jets.

For some of you, it seems the only criteria for being the "best prospect" is if you think the Jets will draft the guy.  

 

[genot]

12 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Maybe because certain people have been unnecesarilly sucking his d**k for 3 years despite him accomplishing nothing?  And because that same group hopes he'll have success at his new place even though it would hurt the Jets (the 2 Carolina picks) in the process?  

Taking the emotion out of it and just looking at this from a football perspective:  Lots of people have been comparing Darnold the prospect with Wilson the prospect all offseason.  It's a pretty logical discussion to have considering we're about to use a # 2 pick on Wilson after using a # 3 pick on Darnold 3 years prior.  If Wilson is truly no better a prospect than Darnold, that would be a bad pick.  Luckily that's not the case.  As has been noted, Wilson is a superior prospect to Darnold.

I haven't been sucking anyone. I'm making a legitimate argument that hos failures we're very possibly the result of all the issues surrounding him. If they're was only me,(out alone on an island), making that argument, then you fairly say i'm a d..k sucker. But i'm not.

[Philc1]

11 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Some of you think this post was meant to simply bring up Sam again. Wrong. I'm just trying to understand more about Zach. If he's not rated higher than the guy who regressed over the three years that he was here than there's no point in taking him. 

Well how do you think Sam would have done facing the Western Kentucky pass rush?

[Biggs]

1 minute ago, Philc1 said:

Well how do you think Sam would have done facing the Western Kentucky pass rush?

He would have rolled out of the pocket.  

[More Cowbell]

55 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Bad teams that hate the head coach where the HC is the worst ever don't win games in the NFL.  

Even a blind squirrel  finds a few nuts

[More Cowbell]

55 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Bad teams that hate the head coach where the HC is the worst ever don't win games in the NFL.  

Even a blind squirrel  finds a few nuts

[CTM]

Would need to see topless photos before commenting @joewilly12

[neckdemon]

21 hours ago, Viermoo said:

Darnold was the consensus best QB going into that draft. Wilson seemingly is #2 in this years. If they were both in this draft who would be the higher rated QB?

no he wasn't the consensus best QB going into the draft, there were those who ranked him behind other prospects

[CTM]

7 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Even a blind squirrel  finds a few nuts

@JiFapono

[Charlie Brown]

9 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

If you are looking at this on a salary level, That is the biggest reason of all to move on from Sam and I say this as a guy that supported Sam and I still do but the clock had run out on him. There was not enough upside in keeping him and the floor was through the basement if he did not improve. Resetting the salary  clock with a new QB who has similar or even more upside is by far a no brainer when looking at it like that.

 

This right there is the main reason why you had move on from Darnold. 

The truth is obvious, and JD knows this, it will take at least 2 years for the Jets to be alright  and Darnold's fifth year option, and the then ensuing outlying years made him just to much of a risk no matter how much you may have wanted Darnold to work here.

I just hope that the Organization and Jets Fans give Wilson a true chance to work here!

[Philc1]

Just now, Charlie Brown said:

This right there is the main reason why you had move on from Darnold. 

 

The truth is obvious, and JD knows this, it will take at least 2 years for the Jets to be alright  and Darnold's fifth year option, and the then ensuing outlying years made him just to much of a risk no matter how much you may have wanted Darnold to work here.

I just hope that the Organization and Jets Fans give Wilson a true chance to work here!

Year 14 of the 3 year true rebuild 

[Charlie Brown]

8 hours ago, Warfish said:

It's funny reading JN Posters who literally proclaimed Darnold the greatest prospect since Luck a few years ago.....now trying to convince us that Darnold wasn't really that great a prospect, but that Wilson (who wasn't even on the NFL 1st Round Radar a year ago) is REALLY the greatest prospect to ever be available to the Jets.

For some of you, it seems the only criteria for being the "best prospect" is if you think the Jets will draft the guy.  

 

[Jet Nut]

9 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Dude, you are smarter than this. The 9ers are better off with a cheap QB with a lot of upside than Sam. Anyone they draft is not going to be as good as Jimmy out of the gate. 

As far as Sam, nobody knows if he is good or is bad but what they do know is picking him up comes with a lot of risk, much more risk than drafting Fields or Wilson. That is why the 9ers would rather spend draft capital on a player they feel they can develop rather than take a broken QB  that nobody  is really sure about,, not even the Jets who watched him and coached him (if you want to call what the Jets did coaching) for 3 years. It was so bad here that If you were going to sabotage  a rookie QB, would you do anything different than what the Jets did to Sam? IMO, no, you couldn't.  

The Carolina move makes sense because actually Sam isn't  that expensive when you really think about it and you can move on in 2 years. And do you really think Carolina traded all those picks so they could let Sam walk in a year? What you are saying is Carolina is incredibly  stupid and I don't  believe that at all. 

The 49rs in a win now position.  They’re not looking to wait a few years or more for A rookie to develop

i don’t know why the panthers drafted Sam.  I do know there is a lot of talk that they may just draft a QB along with Sam. 

[BornJetsFan1983]

12 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Well yes, most bust.  But we still needed a different QB because no one knows that "darnold can play of decent talent around him the betting odds would probably be good that he be ok". Nothing up to now really says that.  And I was a huge Darnold fan but realistically hes never going to be what he was supposed to be.  

The jury is still out, he is going to somewhere with decent coaching at worst, good talent around him so we will see. But just as odds go, the complete unknown of Wilson is more risky that darnold with talent. 

But the fact is the team decided new start is better... I hope they are right!

[More Cowbell]

14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The 49rs in a win now position.  They’re not looking to wait a few years or more for A rookie to develop

i don’t know why the panthers drafted Sam.  I do know there is a lot of talk that they may just draft a QB along with Sam. 

Unless the Panthers are looking at Jones who IMO is a late first or second  round talent, I doubt they take a QB. All that is just GM talk. As far as the 9ers, They probably believe they can develop one of the top 3 prospects by 2022. Mahomes almost got to a SB in his second season.  

[Sonny Werblin]

23 hours ago, Grandy said:

To put it simply, Wilson is above Darnold as a prospect due to him having a better arm coming out, and without large turnover and mechanical issues to boot. Coming out, he's just a significantly better and more consistent thrower of the football. I've seen some people say that him and Wilson are very similar, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Darnold's biggest issues were turnovers, and bad mechanics (motion included) while Wilson had 3 picks last year and has a beautiful flick of the wrist. Wilson also showed great development (which is in fact a good thing) while Darnold receded his final year of college. 

See a lot of people say that Darnold would be 3, or 4 in this class.

Admittedly, i was ecstatic when the Jets drafted Sam. While the team did him no favors, he failed to help himself by improving on his weaknesses. By the end he was gun shy early in games fearful to throw to open receivers because he didn’t want to risk a pick, and all too willing to try to squeeze a ball in to a covered receiver as the game went on and he became desperate to make a play. He never seemed to understand the coverages or situations and much to my never ending frustration would rather run OB for a loss than throw it away.

He also never assumed the mantle of leadership. It seems he’d rather be one of the guys.

Wilson seems to share the love of the game studiousness of players like Chad Pennington and Peyton Manning. He also seems to have Dan Marino and Tom Brady like leadership qualities i.e. We’ll follow you, but let’s agree not to hang out together.

On top of this, he has all of the physical abilities of Darnold when it comes to passing the ball, but with more accuracy and a really, really fast release.

Darnolds only prospect advantage over Wilson is size and athleticism. 

So, I agree Wilson is a better prospect.

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, More Cowbell said:

Unless the Panthers are looking at Jones who IMO is a late first or second  round talent, I doubt they take a QB. All that is just GM talk. As far as the 9ers, They probably believe they can develop one of the top 3 prospects by 2022. Mahomes almost got to a SB in his second season.  

Id hate my GM to be banking on finding a Mahomes with the 3rd QB taken.  Not many of those picks out there

[pointman]

On 4/25/2021 at 7:32 PM, Barkus said:

Darnold in College had issues with turnovers and poor deep ball accuracy. Wilson does not have turnover issues and excellent deep ball accuracy.

Darnold was a late starter to the qb position. Wilson has bee training to be a qb his whole life and is considered to be very studious and reviews film constantly.

interestingly Darnold did not have injury history in college but he has never played a full season in 3 yrs. Wilson has already had multiple surgeries. 
 

 

 

I almost gave you mod status for this post. Carry on, soldier. 

[The Crusher]

11 hours ago, Warfish said:

It's funny reading JN Posters who literally proclaimed Darnold the greatest prospect since Luck a few years ago.....now trying to convince us that Darnold wasn't really that great a prospect, but that Wilson (who wasn't even on the NFL 1st Round Radar a year ago) is REALLY the greatest prospect to ever be available to the Jets.

For some of you, it seems the only criteria for being the "best prospect" is if you think the Jets will draft the guy.  

 

I loved Sam when we drafted him. But I’ve learned from my mistake. I learned NY Jets are incapable of developing a young QB Period. So just say no to the senseless slaughter of young QB prospects. 

[The Crusher]

3 minutes ago, pointman said:

 

I almost gave you mod status for this post. Carry on, soldier. 

Why? it was a really good post. 

[pointman]

13 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Why? it was a really good post. 

[Jet Life]

Wilson is a better prospect than Sam. Even though we’ve already seen Sam stink for 3 years so it doesn’t matter anyway. Support Wilson and he will flourish 

[Jetsfan80]

12 hours ago, The Crusher said:

That’s awesome on it’s own obviously but we all know all biggest part of any rookie QB having success is also so very much connected to where he go’s. I think Wilson is very susceptible to that fact. Still think he needs to sit a bit , but yes he is certainly a better prospect than Sam. I just hope he’s coming into a much better situation than Sam did here. I know people will say he is but we really don’t have much except hope to base that on. This team and coaching staff is greener than the color that represents them. 

I just don’t know how to parse out exactly how important destination is to a young QB’s success.  Is it 25 % of the reason?  75 %?  Hardly anyone can guess.

I’m a nature over nurture guy myself, so I think a young QB has what it takes or he doesn’t.

After all, if destination really was that big of a factor, then Mark Sanchez would have had success after leaving the Jets. 4 good franchises gave him chance after chance and he couldn’t even hold down a QB2 job.  

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford would suck most years thanks to being a Lion. Even a good but never great QB like Kirk Cousins would have failed in Washington.  And Justin Herbert would have crumbled behind the NFL’s # 32 ranked OL last year and a HC that got fired.  He didn’t.  As a rookie, he excelled at a level Darnold could never dream of achieving, even if he had been drafted by the Chiefs.

If a young QB has the goods, he doesn’t need to be coddled.  He’ll just produce. Period.

[Jetsfan80]

12 hours ago, genot said:

I haven't been sucking anyone. I'm making a legitimate argument that hos failures we're very possibly the result of all the issues surrounding him. If they're was only me,(out alone on an island), making that argument, then you fairly say i'm a d..k sucker. But i'm not.

Too bad actual data doesn’t support the claim that good QBs are always/usually ruined by bad situations.  Nor can bad/unproductive QBs become good QBs when placed in good situations.  

No real life, actual evidence exists to support the claim.  Its a weak, house of cards argument that has no merit. 

Just like Mark Sanchez before him, Darnold will evaporate from this league, undoubtedly after being given multiple chances by several franchises based on nothing but his draft pedigree and flawed analysis back from his collegiate days.  

You were wrong when you claimed the Jets were going to trade down and roll with Darnold.  Are you feeling confident about doubling down on him being successful in Carolina, AND simultaneously are you really confident that he’s similar in any way to Wilson?  Circumstances really just don’t make (or break) the QB. They can only really compliment a QB who is already capable of doing the job well.

Meanwhile, Wilson may well end up sucking. I’m not confident in him at all. But he at least has a shot at being a successful QB. That ship has sailed for Darnold.  The prospect analysis of the 2 demonstrates Wilson has very little in common with Darnold and is a superior prospect.  Period.

[Lurker89]

23 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Sorry but this is math and math isn’t football. 

[The Crusher]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I just don’t know how to parse out exactly how important destination is to a young QB’s success.  Is it 25 % of the reason?  75 %?  Hardly anyone can guess.

I’m a nature over nurture guy myself, so I think a young QB has what it takes or he doesn’t.

After all, if destination really was that big of a factor, then Mark Sanchez would have had success after leaving the Jets. 4 good franchises gave him chance after chance and he couldn’t even hold down a QB2 job.  

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford would suck most years thanks to being a Lion. Even a good but never great QB like Kirk Cousins would have failed in Washington.  And Justin Herbert would have crumbled behind the NFL’s # 32 ranked OL last year and a HC that got fired.  He didn’t.  As a rookie, he excelled at a level Darnold could never dream of achieving, even if he had been drafted by the Chiefs.

If a young QB has the goods, he doesn’t need to be coddled.  He’ll just produce. Period.

Coddled? No. Surrounded by an NFL roster? Maybe? Haha 

[sackdance]

On 4/25/2021 at 7:42 PM, Lupz27 said:

According to most scouts Darnold would be the #2 QB prospect in this draft.

Why would any scout spend 10 seconds on this? 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

I loved Sam when we drafted him. But I’ve learned from my mistake. I learned NY Jets are incapable of developing a young QB Period. So just say no to the senseless slaughter of young QB prospects. 

Bad franchises who never had a QB turn things around very quickly in this league.

Have you ever looked at the list of drafted QBs in KC pre-Mahomes? It’s brutal.

And obviously the Browns are even worse, but may have something in Mayfield nonetheless.

You have to keep trying to find a young QB in this league. You don’t just throw in the towel.

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Coddled? No. Surrounded by an NFL roster? Maybe? Haha 

I think you’ll find that the presence of a real QB will show that this roster really isn’t that bad.

Remember those couple weeks when Flacco’s corpse was flinging it around to Mims and Perriman, and people here got excited?

Then Darnold happened.

Darnold ruined his weppinz and OL far more than the other way around.

[Morrissey]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Bad franchises who never had a QB turn things around very quickly in this league.

Have you ever looked at the list of drafted QBs in KC pre-Mahomes? It’s brutal.

And obviously the Browns are even worse, but may have something in Mayfield nonetheless.

You have to keep trying to find a young QB in this league. You don’t just throw in the towel.

I wish some of the posters on here would...