College Wilson vs. College Darnold

[The Crusher]

20 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Bad franchises who never had a QB turn things around very quickly in this league.

Have you ever looked at the list of drafted QBs in KC pre-Mahomes? It’s brutal.

And obviously the Browns are even worse, but may have something in Mayfield nonetheless.

You have to keep trying to find a young QB in this league. You don’t just throw in the towel.

Get a vet, leave the children alone. 

[The Crusher]

19 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I think you’ll find that the presence of a real QB will show that this roster really isn’t that bad.

Remember those couple weeks when Flacco’s corpse was flinging it around to Mims and Perriman, and people here got excited?

Then Darnold happened.

Darnold ruined his weppinz and OL far more than the other way around.

He showed promise his first year. Then Gates  happen. 

[Jetsfan80]

49 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Get a vet, leave the children alone. 

A strategy that almost never yields results for 2 reasons:  1) those kinds of QBs always have a lot of options, so you’ll almost never get one, and 2) they generally don’t win anything.

For every Peyton or Brady that broke free there are a lot of Kirk Cousins over the years. I have zero interest in perpetual 8-8 at best. Or 8-9 under the new stupid schedule.  When you think “bring in a vet”, what you’re likely getting is someone like Jared Goff.

[Jetsfan80]

40 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

He showed promise his first year. Then Gates  happen. 

No he didn’t. He was the worst starting QB in the NFL. And he actually looked his “best” in year 2 under Gase.  He still sucked.

Justin Herbert just put up 31/10 TD:INT.  That is promise. Strive to find that in a young QB.

[slimjasi]

47 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

He showed promise his first year. Then Gates  happen. 

The problem with this argument is that Sam was slightly better in year 2 than he was in year 1. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

The problem with this argument is that Sam was slightly better in year 2 than he was in year 1. 

And no matter how you look at it he was the worst starting QB in the league all 3 years.  # 36 last year.

There’s no “promise” with Darnold. If there was we’d have seen it already. “Flashes” or “promise” requires production. 

[slimjasi]

49 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Get a vet, leave the children alone. 

Yes, the Jets should forever give up on trying to find and develop a franchise QB. Franchise QBs are only for good franchises. The Jets don't deserve to ever be one of those. They deserve to be eternally relegated to signing the Ryan Fitzpatricks of the world and lucking their way into one great flash in the pan season from a veteran QB every 1-2 decades. (Vinny 98, Fitz 2015) 

I say NONSENSE.. There is no reason the Jets can't find and develop their guy. And the reality is that the Jets are never going to be the franchise we want them to be (i.e. a perennial contender) until they do. 

[Smashmouth]

On 4/25/2021 at 9:32 PM, Viermoo said:

Some of you think this post was meant to simply bring up Sam again. Wrong. I'm just trying to understand more about Zach. If he's not rated higher than the guy who regressed over the three years that he was here than there's no point in taking him. 

read what you just wrote 1000 times

[Smashmouth]

35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

A strategy that almost never yields results for 2 reasons:  1) those kinds of QBs always have a lot of options, so you’ll almost never get one, and 2) they generally don’t win anything.

For every Peyton or Brady that broke free there are a lot of Kirk Cousins over the years. I have zero interest in perpetual 8-8 at best. Or 8-9 under the new stupid schedule.  When you think “bring in a vet”, what you’re likely getting is someone like Jared Goff.

Cousins is not a bad QB he's playing on a flawed team that's been terribly mismanaged over the past 3 years trading away great talent. 

[GreenReaper]

21 hours ago, Jackie Treehorn said:

Wilson looks far better in the videos posted, but it was (as mentioned a thousand times, but at this point what hasn't) against inferior opposition. 

What I can tell you is that Zach, with superior looks, will be able to stay clear of the mono-infested low end hoes Darnold had to turn to. That's a plus in my book. 

Absolutely +++

Zach will be good to go on Sundays...if this is all he has to worry about...

Download video

 

[slimjasi]

16 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And no matter how you look at it he was the worst starting QB in the league all 3 years.  # 36 last year.

There’s no “promise” with Darnold. If there was we’d have seen it already. “Flashes” or “promise” requires production. 

I'd say that there have been many, many QBs over the years who came into the league with great "promise" and only a small fraction of those guys ever lived up to their full potential. And yes, while many of those guys were put in bad or difficult situations, at the end of the day, it's a unique privilege to be the starting QB for one of the 32 NFL teams on the planet and you just don't get forever to figure things out.

38 starts is more than Geno Smith got here and more than Josh Rosen got in Arizona. I don't remember anywhere near this much outrage when those two guys were shown the door  - and they were both also in bad situations. 

[pointman]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Too bad actual data doesn’t support the claim that good QBs are always/usually ruined by bad situations.  Nor can bad/unproductive QBs become good QBs when placed in good situations.  

No real life, actual evidence exists to support the claim.  Its a weak, house of cards argument that has no merit. 

Just like Mark Sanchez before him, Darnold will evaporate from this league, undoubtedly after being given multiple chances by several franchises based on nothing but his draft pedigree and flawed analysis back from his collegiate days.  

You were wrong when you claimed the Jets were going to trade down and roll with Darnold.  Are you feeling confident about doubling down on him being successful in Carolina, AND simultaneously are you really confident that he’s similar in any way to Wilson?  Circumstances really just don’t make (or break) the QB. They can only really compliment a QB who is already capable of doing the job well.

Meanwhile, Wilson may well end up sucking. I’m not confident in him at all. But he at least has a shot at being a successful QB. That ship has sailed for Darnold.  The prospect analysis of the 2 demonstrates Wilson has very little in common with Darnold and is a superior prospect.  Period.

To be fair, people claiming to be football guys with insider information also said we were holding onto Sam. Its hilarious. 

[The Crusher]

8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

A strategy that almost never yields results for 2 reasons:  1) those kinds of QBs always have a lot of options, so you’ll almost never get one, and 2) they generally don’t win anything.

For every Peyton or Brady that broke free there are a lot of Kirk Cousins over the years. I have zero interest in perpetual 8-8 at best. Or 8-9 under the new stupid schedule.  When you think “bring in a vet”, what you’re likely getting is someone like Jared Goff.

Fine Sans sucked. This is still the worst roster  in the NFL. Bring in a vet until the roster  is better. You honestly think any of these QBs this year are going to be good or even survive coming in to start? If you do then Zach Wilson should be our last choice not our first, I fail to see any chance if that kid stepping into this line this year and having any success.  We need a veteran QB as a stop gap. Obviously I was exaggerating my position last night. 

[The Crusher]

8 hours ago, slimjasi said:

The problem with this argument is that Sam was slightly better in year 2 than he was in year 1. 

Fair enough. It’s a good thing we’ve really change the line and skill players since then. I’m sure this years QB/victim will Fare much better. We are at least a draft away to being even close. Need stop gap. Obviously I didn’t mean avoid drafting a young QB forever. 

[The Crusher]

8 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Yes, the Jets should forever give up on trying to find and develop a franchise QB. Franchise QBs are only for good franchises. The Jets don't deserve to ever be one of those. They deserve to be eternally relegated to signing the Ryan Fitzpatricks of the world and lucking their way into one great flash in the pan season from a veteran QB every 1-2 decades. (Vinny 98, Fitz 2015) 

I say NONSENSE.. There is no reason the Jets can't find and develop their guy. And the reality is that the Jets are never going to be the franchise we want them to be (i.e. a perennial contender) until they do. 

Not forever, but certainly you don’t feel this offense is ready to plug and play  a rookie QB? You guys talk  about Sam Darnold being worst QB in league and that’s fair, he earned it. Where exactly is is the line rated? Don’t worry Zach will up the level of the  offense playing against basically super hero’s compared to the talent he’s faced. This kid needs to sit awhile, period.But if doesn’t  I’m sure he’ll be fine  because as Jet fans we deserve it. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

Fine Sans sucked. This is still the worst roster  in the NFL. Bring in a vet until the roster  is better. You honestly think any of these QBs this year are going to be good or even survive coming in to start? If you do then Zach Wilson should be our last choice not our first, I fail to see any chance if that kid stepping into this line this year and having any success.  We need a veteran QB as a stop gap. Obviously I was exaggerating my position last night. 

I’m fine with a veteran bridge QB for at least a few games. But ultimately you still have to draft your QB and play him.  Might as well do it in a year where you have a high pick.

If it’s Wilson and he sucks, pull an Arizona and draft another one the next year. 

[Jetsfan80]

9 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Cousins is not a bad QB he's playing on a flawed team that's been terribly mismanaged over the past 3 years trading away great talent. 

He’s purgatory. Like a stronger armed Chad Pennington.  Never really a bad QB (except when facing good teams), but never good enough either. And much like Pennington he makes his living feasting on bad teams.

And no, the Vikings are not “flawed”. Please. They have tons of talent and a decent HC. Up until last year they had him throwing to Thielen and Diggs and handing off to Cook.  No excuses there.  

[slimjasi]

2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Not forever, but certainly you don’t feel this offense is ready to plug and play  a rookie QB? You guys talk  about Sam Darnold being worst QB in league and that’s fair, he earned it. Where exactly is is the line rated? Don’t worry Zach will up the level of the  offense playing against basically super hero’s compared to the talent he’s faced. This kid needs to sit awhile, period.But if doesn’t  I’m sure he’ll be fine  because as Jet fans we deserve it. 

No arguments on the line needing major work, but we have a lot of draft picks in a deep OL draft. Let's see what the roster looks like on opening day.

I also think the receivers are better than people think. We could use another talented tight end. 

I think the starting vs. sitting debate is slightly overblown, and he's going to start regardless, so it is what it is. 

[jgb]

Darnold sucked. The trade compensation proves it yet again. Can't wait to debate every throw he makes for the next ten years with the Darnoids.

[The Crusher]

14 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

No arguments on the line needing major work, but we have a lot of draft picks in a deep OL draft. Let's see what the roster looks like on opening day.

I also think the receivers are better than people think. We could use another talented tight end. 

I think the starting vs. sitting debate is slightly overblown, and he's going to start regardless, so it is what it is. 

Good points, but it’s also an issue starting rookie offensive lineman as well. As you know, line takes time to gel. It’s a tough situation no doubt, I strongly feel  even a few games will let him get a feel for the speed of the NFL game. 

[Fantasy Island]

On 4/25/2021 at 8:43 PM, Morrissey said:

Name the scouts 

done.

[pointman]

8 hours ago, jgb said:

Darnold sucked. The trade compensation proves it yet again. Can't wait to debate every throw he makes for the next ten years with the Darnoids.

That sig pic is a decent photoshop. 

[jgb]

11 hours ago, pointman said:

That sig pic is a decent photoshop. 

Trubisky is the next Tannehill.

[pointman]

8 hours ago, jgb said:

Trubisky is the next Tannehill.

 

I think Trubisky already hit the overrated part. 

[UntouchableCrew]

I don't get the fascination with a given QB "as a prospect" when they are no longer prospects.

With actual prospects we project because we have to. We don't know what kind of pro players these guys will be.

We have three years of Sam Darnold playing QB in the NFL. He stinks. What difference does it make if people didn't know that in 2018 when they were trying to project what he could be? We've got the crystal ball here guys. He was the 34th ranked QB last year -- so unless you think that 100% the fault of Gase and his supporting cast which would lead to an unprecedented turnaround it's time to move on.

[jgb]

2 hours ago, pointman said:

 

I think Trubisky already hit the overrated part. 

"It wasn't that bold of a call to call Trubisky. After all, he did make a pro bowl on the Bears."

-Future JN when I point out that I called Trubisky becoming a good player.

[GaryM]

On 4/26/2021 at 10:43 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

I think you’ll find that the presence of a real QB will show that this roster really isn’t that bad.

Remember those couple weeks when Flacco’s corpse was flinging it around to Mims and Perriman, and people here got excited?

Then Darnold happened.

Darnold ruined his weppinz and OL far more than the other way around.

How many games did the Jets win with Flacco's corpse flinging it around? "With a better qb this roster wasn't that bad", really? Man, will you let it go, Darnold is gone, you seem to be stuck in the past, couldn't wait to get rid of him but already saying your not sure about Wilson. You usually have very good posts, but being stuck on bashing Darnold is getting real old, sorry, just my opinion.

[pointman]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

"It wasn't that bold of a call to call Trubisky. After all, he did make a pro bowl on the Bears."

-Future JN when I point out that I called Trubisky becoming a good player.

lol. Don't worry about this coming back and biting you because, well, he won't come back as a good player. Hedone. 

[jgb]

35 minutes ago, pointman said:

lol. Don't worry about this coming back and biting you because, well, he won't come back as a good player. Hedone. 

It's the Tannehill discussion all over again. Wait 'n see.

[greenwichjetfan]

On 4/26/2021 at 11:51 PM, slimjasi said:

The problem with this argument is that Sam was slightly better in year 2 than he was in year 1. 

No, he wasn't. He put up better stats against significantly weaker opponents. DVOA, DYAR matter. Everyone knows it, but then: agendaz. Under the watchful eyes of Adam Gase, Darnold's DYAR actually dropped 180 points in 2019 and then another 250 points in 2020. 

Sam wasn't *good* in 2018, but he certainly showed promise. He was raw but flashed enormous potential and finished the season strong both statistically and on the eye test. His footwork was getting better. He was making quicker and better decisions because the offense was designed to be a 2-way option, and used presnap motion to help Darnold see the play before the snap. He checked down when there was nothing available, because Bates had built in safety valves - something Gase refused to do. 

Wanting to deride Darnold is fine. By week 3 of this year, I was also ready to move one. But don't do it as an excuse for Gase. Gase had proven that he was absolute garbage well before he got his hands on Darnold, and further proved it here with the Jets. Gase deserves all the smoke (professionally speaking only, of course). 

[slimjasi]

26 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

No, he wasn't. He put up better stats against significantly weaker opponents. DVOA, DYAR matter. Everyone knows it, but then: agendaz. Under the watchful eyes of Adam Gase, Darnold's DYAR actually dropped 180 points in 2019 and then another 250 points in 2020. 

Sam wasn't *good* in 2018, but he certainly showed promise. He was raw but flashed enormous potential and finished the season strong both statistically and on the eye test. His footwork was getting better. He was making quicker and better decisions because the offense was designed to be a 2-way option, and used presnap motion to help Darnold see the play before the snap. He checked down when there was nothing available, because Bates had built in safety valves - something Gase refused to do. 

Wanting to deride Darnold is fine. By week 3 of this year, I was also ready to move one. But don't do it as an excuse for Gase. Gase had proven that he was absolute garbage well before he got his hands on Darnold, and further proved it here with the Jets. Gase deserves all the smoke (professionally speaking only, of course). 

Yeah, you're wrong. 

I haven't seen one serious person say that Sam was markedly better in 2018 than 2019. And that's because he wasn't. DYAR is one stat. The reality is that Sam was slightly better in 2019 than he was in 2018, and at the very least, was more or less the same. You can't tell me that he was appreciably better as a rookie. It's just not true. Sam had a higher completion percentage, threw for more yards, had a lower interception percentage, and boasted a better TD/INT ratio in 2019 compared to 2018.

Also, the "strong finish" that you speak of in 2018 came down to playing well in 3 of his last 4 games (a tiny sample size). Also, in that "fourth" game (the last game of the season), Sam put up 3 points and 167 yards passing. 

[SayNoToDMC]

Darnold is gone. His problem coming out was turnovers and we gave him probably worse weapons and protection than college. Time to move on and hope we support the new guy. I'll probably hate myself in 3 years again saying this cause its the Jets but we seem to have a plan to support the new kid

[greenwichjetfan]

7 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Yeah, you're wrong. 

I haven't seen one serious person say that Sam was markedly better in 2018 than 2019. And that's because he wasn't. DYAR is one stat. The reality is that Sam was slightly better in 2019 than he was in 2018, and at the very least, was more or less the same. You can't tell me that he was appreciably better as a rookie. It's just not true. Sam had a higher completion percentage, threw for more yards, had a lower interception percentage, and boasted a better TD/INT ratio in 2019 compared to 2018.

Also, the "strong finish" that you speak of in 2018 came down to playing well in 3 of his last 4 games (a tiny sample size). Also, in that "fourth" game (the last game of the season), Sam put up 3 points and 167 yards passing. 

Not trying to be rude, genuinely asking: do you know what DYAR is? For one thing, it’s not a statistic. For another, it’ll help explain everything in italics.

Darnold was demonstrably better in ‘18 than ’19. The eye test belies it; derived metrics and context confirm it.

I don’t want to spend time arguing this on draft day because it’s irrelevant now, but I’ll leave you with this: putting up better productivity statistics against weaker opponents is an illusion. It’s why Cousins got 89m guaranteed, it’s why fitz keeps getting more gigs, it’s why Pennington is beloved here even though he couldn’t beat a single top 10 defense despite serviceable coaching and good teammates, and it’s why Darnold’s raw numbers for 2019 look better than 2018.

Meanwhile, Adam Gase was a pretender before he came to the Jets. Outside of his time with a GOAT of the game, his offenses were always bottom half of the league even with some great talent in Chicago and Miami. Players who were considered afterthoughts with him have left him and gone on to have great seasons. He refused to give a 21 year old kid proper coaching himself, didn’t provide him with a QB coach, nor did he tailor his graduate level playbook built for Peyton to a rookie with completely different skill-sets. 

My (only) two posts in this thread are not to defend Darnold; they’re in response to not holding Gase’s feet to the fire. Let’s not let him off the hook for absolutely destroying a talented kid who showed promise and finished his rookie year trending upwards. The year over year DYAR metric for all of Gase’s QBs since Peyton is proof positive of all that.

[slimjasi]

2 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Not trying to be rude, genuinely asking: do you know what DYAR is? For one thing, it’s not a statistic.

Uhm, yes . . . it is. It's a statistic invented by football outsiders. See their own definition here:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DYAR%3A Defense-adjusted Yards Above,translates that total into yardage.

FYI, DVOA is also a statistic invented by football outsiders.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DYAR%3A Defense-adjusted Yards Above,translates that total into yardage.

I'm an applied physicist. I promise you that I know what a statistic is

Secondly, I'm very familiar with what DYAR is. People have been pumping it up for years. It's not an end-all be-all. It's one potentially useful statistical tool among many. The fact that you are exclusively relying on DYAR speaks for itself.

No one on this board was saying that Sam was appreciably worse in 2019 compared to 2018 last offseason. And, it seems to me that, in order for the "Gase ruined Sam argument" to be true, that (more or less) has to be the case. 

[greenwichjetfan]

17 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Uhm, yes . . . it is. It's a statistic invented by football outsiders. See their own definition here:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DYAR%3A Defense-adjusted Yards Above,translates that total into yardage.

FYI, DVOA is also a statistic invented by football outsiders.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DYAR%3A Defense-adjusted Yards Above,translates that total into yardage.

I'm an applied physicist. I promise you that I know what a statistic is

Secondly, I'm very familiar with what DYAR is. People have been pumping it up for years. It's not an end-all be-all. It's one potentially useful statistical tool among many. The fact that you are exclusively relying on DYAR speaks for itself.

No one on this board was saying that Sam was appreciably worse in 2019 compared to 2018 last offseason. And, it seems to me that, in order for the "Gase ruined Sam argument" to be true, that (more or less) has to be the case. 

I also know my way around numbers given my degrees and time in asset management. DVOA and DYAR are what we refer to as metrics; not stats. To us there is a distinction. A stat is the raw tracking of data without context. A metric informs the relationship between 2 or more statistics. Maybe that distinction isn't there for applied physics, I'm not sure.  

DYAR encapsulates performance (efficiency and productivity) better than any other metric I've seen for evaluating QBs. I've done deep dives into all other metrics in the past, and it is the closest thing I've seen to the eye test. If I were forced to give exceptions to using DYAR, it would be to rate effectiveness of a QB given that there are varying factors that determine effectiveness that haven't yet been compiled/tracked/analyzed. Another is that "replacement level" for a QB is extremely variant and the way they derive it is a bit too convoluted for my tastes. All of that said, it's not that I'm exclusively relying on DYAR. It's that I've done the HW and I know that DYAR is the best metric to use because it accounts for all of the statistics you're referring to and analyzes them on a play by play basis. 

I don't really care what people on the board or the media say or talk about. They're not who I look to for direction on how to think. That said, I know for certain that there were definitely posters on this site that were talking about the fact that Darnold's "resurgence" during 2019's 6-2 was an illusion because he was playing against one of the weakest 8 game stretches we had seen in a long time.

The point being, even if you forget about DYAR since you're so opposed to it - take a look at Gase's history over the years. Regardless of talent on the team, he has failed. His teams overall have sucked and his offenses (for being an offensive mastermind) have been ranked in the 20s every year. Then he comes to the Jets, and in year 1, he managed to give two (!!!!) teams their first wins of the season more than halfway into the year. In 2020, his team went 2-14. Once again, I'm not absolving Darnold of his poor play. I'm countering that Gase was the primary reason for it. 

Either way, appreciate the discussion. I'll let you have the last word.