College Wilson vs. College Darnold

[slimjasi]

25 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I also know my way around numbers given my degrees and time in asset management. DVOA and DYAR are what we refer to as metrics; not stats. To us there is a distinction. A stat is the raw tracking of data without context. A metric informs the relationship between 2 or more statistics. Maybe that distinction isn't there for applied physics, I'm not sure.  

DYAR encapsulates performance (efficiency and productivity) better than any other metric I've seen for evaluating QBs. I've done deep dives into all other metrics in the past, and it is the closest thing I've seen to the eye test. If I were forced to give exceptions to using DYAR, it would be to rate effectiveness of a QB given that there are varying factors that determine effectiveness that haven't yet been compiled/tracked/analyzed. Another is that "replacement level" for a QB is extremely variant and the way they derive it is a bit too convoluted for my tastes. All of that said, it's not that I'm exclusively relying on DYAR. It's that I've done the HW and I know that DYAR is the best metric to use because it accounts for all of the statistics you're referring to and analyzes them on a play by play basis. 

I don't really care what people on the board or the media say or talk about. They're not who I look to for direction on how to think. That said, I know for certain that there were definitely posters on this site that were talking about the fact that Darnold's "resurgence" during 2019's 6-2 was an illusion because he was playing against one of the weakest 8 game stretches we had seen in a long time.

The point being, even if you forget about DYAR since you're so opposed to it - take a look at Gase's history over the years. Regardless of talent on the team, he has failed. His teams overall have sucked and his offenses (for being an offensive mastermind) have been ranked in the 20s every year. Then he comes to the Jets, and in year 1, he managed to give two (!!!!) teams their first wins of the season more than halfway into the year. In 2020, his team went 2-14. Once again, I'm not absolving Darnold of his poor play. I'm countering that Gase was the primary reason for it. 

Either way, appreciate the discussion. I'll let you have the last word. 

Yea, the bolded is semantical, and I agree, might be dictated by field. I'd probably call DYAR a "statistical metric" myself. But that's not important. 

DYAR is a nice tool and I'm certainly not opposed to it, but it's not a game-changer for me. My eyes told me Sam was marginally better in 2019 compared to 2018. I like advanced metrics, I just think it's easy to go overboard with them. I don't even doubt that DYAR does the best job of any single metric. But I just don't think a 180 point dip in DYAR between seasons proves that a QB was markedly better in the first year compared to the second year. For example, Josh Allen's 2020 passing DYAR was 1460 and Deshaun Watson's 2020 passing DYAR was 1234 (a difference of 226). I don't interpret that as Allen having been markedly better than Watson in 2020. That's just not a large enough difference to go crazy.  

Basically, the problem I have with blaming Gase for everything is that Sam's numbers between 2018 and 2019 were close across the board. IMO, the "Gase ruined Sam" argument just doesn't fit the data very well. It would be different if Sam was categorically worse in 2019 than he was in 2018, but he clearly did some things better the second year. You can say that Gase "failed to develop Sam," and was a terrible hire for Sam (no argument there), but I have a hard time seeing how Gase "ruined" Sam. I just think that's an enormous stretch. 

[dcJet]

16 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I also know my way around numbers given my degrees and time in asset management. DVOA and DYAR are what we refer to as metrics; not stats. To us there is a distinction. A stat is the raw tracking of data without context. A metric informs the relationship between 2 or more statistics. Maybe that distinction isn't there for applied physics, I'm not sure.  

DYAR encapsulates performance (efficiency and productivity) better than any other metric I've seen for evaluating QBs. I've done deep dives into all other metrics in the past, and it is the closest thing I've seen to the eye test. If I were forced to give exceptions to using DYAR, it would be to rate effectiveness of a QB given that there are varying factors that determine effectiveness that haven't yet been compiled/tracked/analyzed. Another is that "replacement level" for a QB is extremely variant and the way they derive it is a bit too convoluted for my tastes. All of that said, it's not that I'm exclusively relying on DYAR. It's that I've done the HW and I know that DYAR is the best metric to use because it accounts for all of the statistics you're referring to and analyzes them on a play by play basis. 

I don't really care what people on the board or the media say or talk about. They're not who I look to for direction on how to think. That said, I know for certain that there were definitely posters on this site that were talking about the fact that Darnold's "resurgence" during 2019's 6-2 was an illusion because he was playing against one of the weakest 8 game stretches we had seen in a long time.

The point being, even if you forget about DYAR since you're so opposed to it - take a look at Gase's history over the years. Regardless of talent on the team, he has failed. His teams overall have sucked and his offenses (for being an offensive mastermind) have been ranked in the 20s every year. Then he comes to the Jets, and in year 1, he managed to give two (!!!!) teams their first wins of the season more than halfway into the year. In 2020, his team went 2-14. Once again, I'm not absolving Darnold of his poor play. I'm countering that Gase was the primary reason for it. 

Either way, appreciate the discussion. I'll let you have the last word. 

Good discussion!

I submit all three things were bad, Gase, Darnold and Weaponz.  Improving one or two improves the situation, but doesn't fix it.

We'll know soon enough about Sammy.  He has good coaching and superior weaponz in Charlotte.  

 

[greenwichjetfan]

2 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Good discussion!

I submit all three things were bad, Gase, Darnold and Weaponz.  Improving one or two improves the situation, but doesn't fix it.

We'll know soon enough about Sammy.  He has good coaching and superior weaponz in Charlotte.  

 

I didn't want Sam when we drafted him. I have a thread on JN on draft day 2018 where I was buttfumbled to oblivion for simply asking people to sell me on him. So I'm not what anyone would refer to as a fanboy. 

He won me over with his play in 2018. I watched every single play and was enamored by his raw skill. As I said in my initial post, he was not *good* by any stretch, and there were stretches where he looked like a 21 year old rookie - but he showed promise. IIRC, he had one of the highest QBRs (although I admit QBR is a sh*tty metric) in the league in the final 4 weeks, and it was driven by big time performances against solid defenses. There were the signature moments you could point to as well for intangibles like the way he battled back week 1 after throwing a pick6 on his first professional play; the way he went toe to toe with QBs like Luck, Watson and Rodgers; even the way he kept continued to compete while his receivers were dropping passes and his OL was allowing him to be pressured or hit on seemingly every dropback and his defense gave up 24 points to Mitch freaking Trubisky. The point is, to say that there wasn't hope or optimism is IMO forgetful at best; deliberately disingenuous at worst.  

Anyway, by week 5 of last year, I was ready to move on. Financially it didn't make sense to stick with him because he was never going to make the jump to a top 1/3rd QB in the league on this team. The day after he was traded, I forgot about him.

If he does well on the Panthers, the only reason I'll care is because it'll be yet another strike in a long line of strikes against Gase. Other than for that reason, I'm relatively indifferent about how he does going forward. 

[slimjasi]

8 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

He won me over with his play in 2018. I watched every single play and was enamored by his raw skill. As I said in my initial post, he was not *good* by any stretch, and there were stretches where he looked like a 21 year old rookie - but he showed promise. IIRC, he had one of the highest QBRs (although I admit QBR is a sh*tty metric) in the league in the final 4 weeks, and it was driven by big time performances against solid defenses. There were the signature moments you could point to as well for intangibles like the way he battled back week 1 after throwing a pick6 on his first professional play; the way he went toe to toe with QBs like Luck, Watson and Rodgers; even the way he kept continued to compete while his receivers were dropping passes and his OL was allowing him to be pressured or hit on seemingly every dropback and his defense gave up 24 points to Mitch freaking Trubisky. The point is, to say that there wasn't hope or optimism is IMO forgetful at best; deliberately disingenuous at worst.   

I agree with some of this. Darnold has plenty of raw talent, but I think this is a problem we all run into - the history of the NFL is littered with guys who had the talent but couldn't put it all together for whatever reason. 

The only thing I'd reiterate is that the mythical last 4 games of 2018 are overblown for a variety of reasons:

1) It's a small sample size. It just is. 

2) Sam was pretty bad in the 4th game (last game of the season @ NE) - everyone always ignores this game. 

3) The Buffalo, Houston, and NE defenses were all good but the Packers defense was abysmal. So, really, Sam played very well against two good defenses and a terrible defense and badly against another good defense. Again - tiny sample size. 

As a larger point, Sam basically had 4 great games in 2018 (@Detroit, @ Buffalo, Houston, Green Bay) and 4 great games in 2019 (Dallas, NYG, @Washington, Oakland). (give or take in either case - you could include a few more "good" games from either year). Yes, the defenses were better in 2018, but the overall performance was very similar - a few excellent games, several inordinately terrible games (e.g. @ Miami 2018, NE 2019), and a lot of mediocre performances in-between. 

[jgb]

Not a turnover machine. That's a plus.

Glaringly weak schedule in 2020. That's a negative.

[greenwichjetfan]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I agree with some of this. Darnold has plenty of raw talent, but I think this is a problem we all run into - the history of the NFL is littered with guys who had the talent but couldn't put it all together for whatever reason. 

The only thing I'd reiterate is that the mythical last 4 games of 2018 are overblown for a variety of reasons:

1) It's a small sample size. It just is. 

2) Sam was pretty bad in the 4th game (last game of the season @ NE) - everyone always ignores this game. 

3) The Buffalo, Houston, and NE defenses were all good but the Packers defense was abysmal. So, really, Sam played very well against two good defenses and a terrible defense and badly against another good defense. Again - tiny sample size. 

As a larger point, Sam basically had 4 great games in 2018 (@Detroit, @ Buffalo, Houston, Green Bay) and 4 great games in 2019 (Dallas, NYG, @Washington, Oakland). (give or take in either case - you could include a few more "good" games from either year). Yes, the defenses were better in 2018, but the overall performance was very similar - a few excellent games, several inordinately terrible games (e.g. @ Miami 2018, NE 2019), and a lot of mediocre performances in-between. 

You're looking at it in hindsight. At the time, the final quarter of the season was 30% of his professional starts after finishing up a college career that had him as the third overall pick. And IIRC, the Indy game where he was mic'd up was also his rookie year. That's 5 great games as a rookie out of 13 starts; three of which were in the final month of the season after he came back from injury. Nothing mythical about it when you remember it in that time.

Also, it's easy to look back now at that last game and see it for what it is, but at the time, it was also understandable given that it was the final game of a lame-duck coaching staff and was against the greatest coach of all time who is known for basically three things: (1) his rings (2) cheating, and (3) eating up and absolutely destroying rookie QBs. It was Darnold's first ever experience playing against Belichick (he was hurt during the first meeting), so it wasn't so much overlooking at the time; it was more understanding the circumstances.

Contextually, in that moment during the 2018 offseason - when we were supposed to get a great new coach and follow the Rams model of ousting the defensive HC for an offensive wizard who would unlock Sam's potential, there was tons of optimism and hope and promise. Instead, we chose one of the worst HCs available in 2018, and he proceeded to cement his legacy as one of the worst HC of all time. 

[UnknownJetFan]

On 4/25/2021 at 8:17 PM, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Darnold would have been still the NY jets dstarter this if he had any help on the team or decent coaching. I think wilson would be ranked over him in same year because of things already addressed...skills etc...but info think darnold could have been a great qb and def a franchise guy. Yet to be seen for wilson...say all you want there is a bigger chance that wilson bust this year verse darnold with help around him. Time will tell. But I hope darnold find success and we face him in the playoffs one day

Busts this year is a somewhat oxy moron. No rookie can bust the 1st year as that is generally a training year and with the exception of Rothlisburger I mainly only recall him and Pitt having a rookie QB with a winning record the 1st year as opposed to every rookie QB on any other team in say the past 25-30 years. 

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

You're looking at it in hindsight. At the time, the final quarter of the season was 30% of his professional starts after finishing up a college career that had him as the third overall pick. And IIRC, the Indy game where he was mic'd up was also his rookie year. That's 5 great games as a rookie out of 13 starts; three of which were in the final month of the season after he came back from injury. Nothing mythical about it when you remember it in that time.

Also, it's easy to look back now at that last game and see it for what it is, but at the time, it was also understandable given that it was the final game of a lame-duck coaching staff and was against the greatest coach of all time who is known for basically three things: (1) his rings (2) cheating, and (3) eating up and absolutely destroying rookie QBs. It was Darnold's first ever experience playing against Belichick (he was hurt during the first meeting), so it wasn't so much overlooking at the time; it was more understanding the circumstances.

Contextually, in that moment during the 2018 offseason - when we were supposed to get a great new coach and follow the Rams model of ousting the defensive HC for an offensive wizard who would unlock Sam's potential, there was tons of optimism and hope and promise. Instead, we chose one of the worst HCs available in 2018, and he proceeded to cement his legacy as one of the worst HC of all time. 

Oh, I'm definitely looking at it in hindsight. But I was one of the people who overreacted to the final four games of 2018 and I think that has taught me to pump the breaks on getting too excited about extrapolations based on 3 or 4 games. The reality is that Sam's production has consistently been below average for the crux of his NFL career. 

 

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Oh, I'm definitely looking at it in hindsight. But I was one of the people who overreacted to the final four games of 2018 and I think that has taught me to pump the breaks on getting too excited about extrapolations based on 3 or 4 games. The reality is that Sam's production has consistently been below average for the crux of his NFL career. 

 

Below average in regards to Sam is like saying Stalin was sorta misguided. Let's call it what is is: by many statistical measures Sam was the worst starting QB in the NFL over 3 seasons.

[lounap23]

On 4/25/2021 at 4:59 PM, jetsons said:

 "An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence."

“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,” the AFC scout said. “He was caught in a bad situation.”

Unfortunately, the split between the Jets and Darnold had to happen.   Talent wise a lot people feel Darnold would be the #1 or #2 QB in this draft.   The problem here is projecting talent to NFL play is a great mystery no one really has solved.   batting .300 is great in baseball batting .300 on getting a draft pick right is beyond great.   Add in the mystery of did Gase and the Jets break Darnold so much he is not repairable is juts another piece of the elementary statistics equation that makes moving on from him the smart move.  

 

I am the biggest Darnold supporter. rooting for him big time but letting him go was the smart decision in the moment.  

[slimjasi]

Just now, jgb said:

Below average in regards to Sam is like saying Stalin was sorta misguided.

haha, I guess I'm trying to be nice. Sam seems like an awesome guy and I guess I'm tired of sh*tting on him. 

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, lounap23 said:

Unfortunately, the split between the Jets and Darnold had to happen.   Talent wise a lot people feel Darnold would be the #1 or #2 QB in this draft.   The problem here is projecting talent to NFL play is a great mystery no one really has solved.   batting .300 is great in baseball batting .300 on getting a draft pick right is beyond great.   Add in the mystery of did Gase and the Jets break Darnold so much he is not repairable is juts another piece of the elementary statistics equation that makes moving on from him the smart move.  

 

I am the biggest Darnold supporter. rooting for him big time but letting him go was the smart decision in the moment.  

The likelihood of Sam becoming a top 16 NFL starter over any significant time frame (beyond a few game string, even though he's never even accomplished that) is in the low single digits percentage-wise. He would immediately become the biggest turnaround story in the NFL in the last 20 years and rival Gannon for biggest ever -- and remember Gannon didn't look like a player until year 13 of his career. Being so bad for so long before becoming good is almost without precedent.

The dream is dead. Let him go.

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, lounap23 said:

Unfortunately, the split between the Jets and Darnold had to happen.   Talent wise a lot people feel Darnold would be the #1 or #2 QB in this draft.   The problem here is projecting talent to NFL play is a great mystery no one really has solved.   batting .300 is great in baseball batting .300 on getting a draft pick right is beyond great.   Add in the mystery of did Gase and the Jets break Darnold so much he is not repairable is juts another piece of the elementary statistics equation that makes moving on from him the smart move.  

 

I am the biggest Darnold supporter. rooting for him big time but letting him go was the smart decision in the moment.  

Plenty of underachieving QBs over the years have had enough talent. Talent is overrated. It takes a lot more than talent to become a consistently good NFL QB. 

If Wilson busts here, it won't be because he lacked the physical talent to play the position. 

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

haha, I guess I'm trying to be nice. Sam seems like an awesome guy and I guess I'm tired of sh*tting on him. 

Gotta separate the man from the player. I've fired nice people before who couldn't do the job. Would still have a beer with them if I ran into them at the bar.

[BornJetsFan1983]

26 minutes ago, UnknownJetFan said:

Busts this year is a somewhat oxy moron. No rookie can bust the 1st year as that is generally a training year and with the exception of Rothlisburger I mainly only recall him and Pitt having a rookie QB with a winning record the 1st year as opposed to every rookie QB on any other team in say the past 25-30 years. 

Rosen 

[BornJetsFan1983]

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

Gotta separate the man from the player. I've fired nice people before who couldn't do the job. Would still have a beer with them if I ran into them at the bar.

That dude you fired don't want to have no beer with you!!!

Now were those good people really uncapable of doing the job? Most times leadership is at fault for employees not being able to perform, whether poor training, communication, workplace environment what have you. Failure to perform is direct result from poor leadership. 

Whether you are talking about a gas station or fortune 500 company, or more relevant to jetnation - the NY Jets.

Sam failure was not his alone it was the lack of good leadership.  Jocko Wilink does leadership training for companies all the time. Military service shows how powerful leadership really it, you are not allowed to just say well I had good people and blame them for failure. 

It is almost always leadership or lack there of, that results in poor performance. I may be reading way too much into you statement, but the way you wrote screams poor leadership.

No offense. But i bet your first level leaders, probably second level leaders failed those "good people", and more accurately failed the company and you. Not sure where you are on the food chain but if you fired them either you or your leaders were most likely the problem not the "good people". Good people don't get fired bud. At least not by competent leaders.

[dcJet]

Sam's ceiling is Sanchez.  With a good line and receivers and running game you can "manage" him.

Win games by getting early lead, throwing 30 times -  55% comp., 220 yards, 2td's, 1 int/fum.  Lots of play action and slants.  Those were Sam's stats and game scripts in the two wins this year.

Get behind early and he'll occasionally bring you back, but most often snowball the game into a blowout like Sanchez.

We'll see how he does in Charlotte.  Turnover-machine, inaccurate QB's usually don't change their stripes.

 

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

That dude you fired don't want to have no beer with you!!!

Now were those good people really uncapable of doing the job? Most times leadership is at fault for employees not being able to perform, whether poor training, communication, workplace environment what have you. Failure to perform is direct result from poor leadership. 

Whether you are talking about a gas station or fortune 500 company, or more relevant to jetnation - the NY Jets.

Sam failure was not his alone it was the lack of good leadership.  Jocko Wilink does leadership training for companies all the time. Military service shows how powerful leadership really it, you are not allowed to just say well I had good people and blame them for failure. 

It is almost always leadership or lack there of, that results in poor performance. I may be reading way too much into you statement, but the way you wrote screams poor leadership.

No offense. But i bet your first level leaders, probably second level leaders failed those "good people", and more accurately failed the company and you. Not sure where you are on the food chain but if you fired them either you or your leaders were most likely the problem not the "good people". Good people don't get fired bud. At least not by competent leaders.

Time heals all wounds. I haven't fired a ton of people. Most/almost all of the conversations have gone like this.

"This isn't working out is this really what you want to do."

"Not really, no."

"Cool, take the next month or two trying to find a position in the company that suits you better. If you can't find anything we'll pay out your notice period and you're free."

"Cool."

Now if it's for cause -- they get the ambiguous meeting invite in the calendar and walk into the room to see me flanked by HR and Legal sitting there.

[greenwichjetfan]

44 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

haha, I guess I'm trying to be nice. Sam seems like an awesome guy and I guess I'm tired of sh*tting on him. 

This is partly why I'm still talking about Sam Darnold on the day where we're drafting a QB the highest we've ever drafted in my lifetime. (1) To ensure everyone is aware just how ******* sh*tty Gase was and still is, (2) because Darnold has caught a bunch of sh*t on these forums - partly because of his play but also partly because of other things. The Darnold haters take it just as far as the Darnold apologists, except one group is trying to be a fan while the other has literally wished that he never recovered from mono. 

38 minutes ago, jgb said:

Gotta separate the man from the player. I've fired nice people before who couldn't do the job. Would still have a beer with them if I ran into them at the bar.

Meh. We're fans on an online fan forum. Different from firing employees. I fired a guy even though he was a nice guy (maybe too nice for this job) because he sucked at his job. I wouldn't want to have a beer with him because of what he caused both me and my team. Darnold I'd want to have a beer with because I don't actually care how badly he played as it's not an interwoven part of my daily existence. 

[dcJet]

19 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Failure to perform is direct result from poor leadership. 

Whether you are talking about a gas station or fortune 500 company, or more relevant to jetnation - the NY Jets.

Sam failure was not his alone it was the lack of good leadership. 

I call BS.  Sam's failure is his own.  He stunk up the place last year. 

All Sam had to do was win 4 friggin games and JD would have kept him.   Herbert, Burrow, and even Tua would have won at least four games with our team.

[BornJetsFan1983]

32 minutes ago, jgb said:

Time heals all wounds. I haven't fired a ton of people. Most/almost all of the conversations have gone like this.

"This isn't working out is this really what you want to do."

"Not really, no."

"Cool, take the next month or two trying to find a position in the company that suits you better. If you can't find anything we'll pay out your notice period and you're free."

"Cool."

Now if it's for cause -- they get the ambiguous meeting invite in the calendar and walk into the room to see me flanked by HR and Legal sitting there.

Brutal!!! HR and Legal at the flanks!! Thats when you know you f'd up!

 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

This is partly why I'm still talking about Sam Darnold on the day where we're drafting a QB the highest we've ever drafted in my lifetime. (1) To ensure everyone is aware just how ******* sh*tty Gase was and still is, (2) because Darnold has caught a bunch of sh*t on these forums - partly because of his play but also partly because of other things. The Darnold haters take it just as far as the Darnold apologists, except one group is trying to be a fan while the other has literally wished that he never recovered from mono. 

Meh. We're fans on an online fan forum. Different from firing employees. I fired a guy even though he was a nice guy (maybe too nice for this job) because he sucked at his job. I wouldn't want to have a beer with him because of what he caused both me and my team. Darnold I'd want to have a beer with because I don't actually care how badly he played as it's not an interwoven part of my daily existence. 

How is it not being a fan to want the worst QB in the NFL off your team? 

[pointman]

20 hours ago, jgb said:

It's the Tannehill discussion all over again. Wait 'n see.

For every Tannehill who comes back decently... there are two dozen more who fall to the wayside. Trubisky is more than likely one of those. He is really bad. 

[papz187]

Pennigton - X
Clemens - X
Sanchez - X
Geno - X
Petty - X
The bum from Penn State‽ - X
Darnold - X

Wilson - ?

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

[jgb]

33 minutes ago, pointman said:

For every Tannehill who comes back decently... there are two dozen more who fall to the wayside. Trubisky is more than likely one of those. He is really bad. 

I'm 1 for 1 on calling guys like this. Let's see if we can go 2 for 2. And I agree it's rare -- I got mountains of ribbing for sticking to my guns when Tannehill was dead and buried -- until it happens then the narrative insta-switches to: "it was obvious anyway."

[pointman]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

I'm 1 for 1 on calling guys like this. Let's see if we can go 2 for 2. And I agree it's rare -- I got mountains of ribbing for sticking to my guns when Tannehill was dead and buried -- until it happens then the narrative insta-switches to: "it was obvious anyway."

I'm 1 for 1 calling people poop when I said Sam was poop. 

[Jamax99]

Darnold final year was not good,  he had 37 turnovers in college.    He went backwards.  After JUJU left. 

[jgb]

17 minutes ago, pointman said:

I'm 1 for 1 calling people poop when I said Sam was poop. 

Congratulations.

[pointman]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Congratulations.

I like you.

[Jamax99]

DARNOLD DARNOLD DARNOLD , please , he was bad hes finally year at USC  everyone made excuses , that hes wrs left to NFL  and 4 years later you guys still making excuses.  Lol  hes not that good .  I watched every game  and last 6 games o line was good.    Its over its Zach time now. 

[jgb]

9 minutes ago, Jamax99 said:

DARNOLD DARNOLD DARNOLD , please , he was bad hes finally year at USC  everyone made excuses , that hes wrs left to NFL  and 4 years later you guys still making excuses.  Lol  hes not that good .  I watched every game  and last 6 games o line was good.    Its over its Zach time now. 

Welcome to JN. FYI every time Geno Smith gets dragged out in mop up duty his supporters come out of the ground like earthworms after rain. The Darnold discussion isn't going anywhere for 10 years or more.

[funaz]

This is total bs. People were saying the same thing about Darnold.

Truth is we don't know how good Wilson is going to be.

Wilson is a better prospect in every way. Even if he was slightly behind Darnold in skills (which he most certainly is not) he would be a better prospect due to dedication, work ethic, and football IQ.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[jgb]

9 hours ago, dcJet said:

Good discussion!

I submit all three things were bad, Gase, Darnold and Weaponz.  Improving one or two improves the situation, but doesn't fix it.

We'll know soon enough about Sammy.  He has good coaching and superior weaponz in Charlotte.  

 

We already know. Sam never elevated above his circumstances even in spurts. He’s not a good QB.

[lounap23]

On 4/29/2021 at 11:02 AM, slimjasi said:

Plenty of underachieving QBs over the years have had enough talent. Talent is overrated. It takes a lot more than talent to become a consistently good NFL QB. 

If Wilson busts here, it won't be because he lacked the physical talent to play the position. 

Yes, that was my point.

[lounap23]

On 4/29/2021 at 11:01 AM, jgb said:

The likelihood of Sam becoming a top 16 NFL starter over any significant time frame (beyond a few game string, even though he's never even accomplished that) is in the low single digits percentage-wise. He would immediately become the biggest turnaround story in the NFL in the last 20 years and rival Gannon for biggest ever -- and remember Gannon didn't look like a player until year 13 of his career. Being so bad for so long before becoming good is almost without precedent.

The dream is dead. Let him go.

Oh I let him go a while ago. Said the split had to happen.  But Darnold is 23.  I don't think it's a single digit change he tunrs it around.  I think if the Panthers are the right situation it's a solid. 31.56% chance