McGinn QBs

[hmhertz]

 

Ranking the top quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft: Bob McGinn’s grades are in

By Bob McGinn Apr 23, 2021 140 

This is the 37th year Bob McGinn has written an NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-2001), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017) and BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-19). Until 2014, personnel evaluators often were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts. This will be a nine-part series.

Previously: WR/TE | OL

Robert S. McNamara, the U.S. Secretary of Defense under Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, was the subject of the 2003 documentary “The Fog of War” in which the difficulty of decision-making in the midst of conflict was examined.

The layer of fog in NFL front offices continues to expand when it comes to their most vital decision: what to do at quarterback.

For the sake of argument, let’s say five quarterbacks are taken in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft. It would be just the second time in history. The other was 1999, when it’s instructive to note that Tim Couch, Akili Smith and Cade McNown turned out to be busts just as Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper made multiple Pro Bowls.

To most scouts, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is a cut above the rest. Some compare him to Andrew Luck, meaning he’s a prospect that comes along every five to 10 years.

“He lacks for no physical traits,” said one veteran evaluator. “He’s as close to a sure thing as you can have.”

In my poll of 18 personnel evaluators, 14 rated Lawrence as the best quarterback. Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson drew three first-place votes and Ohio State’s Justin Fields had the other.

With a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on, Lawrence led with 84 points followed by Wilson with 64, Fields with 53, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance with 38 and Alabama’s Mac Jones with 30. One point went to Florida’s Kyle Trask.

Perhaps more interesting was the fact not one scout picked Lawrence as the quarterback with the best chance to bust. With 16 scouts willing to toss a dart, the bust count showed 7½ hits for Lance, 3½ for Wilson, three for Fields and two for Jones.

During these hours of interviewing, not one scout said this was a great group of quarterbacks. Yet, so many teams high atop the draft are fully prepared to risk everything on prospects such as Wilson, Fields, Lance and Jones.

“This system — I can’t even describe how broken it is,” a longtime executive in personnel said. “Every quarterback has a handler or coach from the time they’re in the seventh or eighth grade. Then they play a season, maybe two, in college and everybody says, ‘Well, you’re going to be a top-10 pick, so you’ve got to come out.’ Now they come out with a wafer-thin résumé.

“The phrase is, ‘You can’t win in the NFL without a quarterback.’ Then all these teams that are at the top fall all over themselves to say, ‘We’re going to improve and get better. We’re never going to be up here again. We better take one.’

“It is a vicious cycle, and I don’t know how it ever resolves itself.”

Quarterbacks have gone off 1-2-3 twice before (1971, 1999) but never 1-2-3-4. History could be made.

“If the draft truly goes 1-2-3-4, or even 1-2-3, it’s absurd,” the executive added. “It is a rush to the altar. It’s so over the top. But I’m not surprised. It’s the NFL.”

Wilson had to compete just to lock down the starting job at BYU last season. Fields needs development reading defenses and must reduce his poor decisions. Lance made 17 career starts for the FCS Bison, including just one unimpressive start in 2020. Jones has physical limitations that might get exposed in the NFL.

Jones is the only one of the four that was in college for four years, and his first season was spent as a redshirt. Wilson, Fields and Lance are third-year juniors.

“I think there is more hope than talent,” an AFC scout said. “People are so desperate for these guys. I don’t see (Patrick) Mahomes. I don’t see (Peyton) Manning. I don’t see Aaron Rodgers. I see maybe Russell Wilson.”

 

 

With highly-touted, highly-drafted quarterbacks being discarded left and right this offseason, one scout laughed at his profession. “And we’re going to sit up here and act like we know for sure,” he said.

There are other perfectly good options, too. Kyle Pitts has all-time tight end written all over him. Ja’Marr Chase owns the strongest consensus from scouts at wide receiver since Calvin Johnson.

“We put way too much on these quarterbacks’ plates,” said another evaluator. “We keep saying, ‘They’re bust, they’re busts, they’re busts.’ Well, take some pressure off them. They’re not all built to throw 40 times a week.”

He pointed to how Kansas City kept winning in conservative fashion with Alex Smith, and how Ryan Tannehill turned around his career in Tennessee.

“You run the ball effectively and you build it off play-action,” said the evaluator. “It wasn’t by accident that Tannehill became a good quarterback at Tennessee.”

The Chiefs went 11-5, 9-7, 11-5, 12-4 from 2013-16 with Smith under center, making the playoffs three times. Finally, when the scouts and coaches concluded that Mahomes met every requirement they had at the position, they boldly traded up to draft him in 2017 and won the Super Bowl in 2019.

“Nobody has patience anymore,” said another executive. “The Chiefs told (ownership) to relax. They waited five years for a quarterback. It’s social media … it’s what have you done for me in the last 24 hours.”

 

 

Two personnel evaluators argued that the Jets, who are expected to draft a quarterback at No. 2, just traded away a capable one in Sam Darnold, their choice at No. 3 in 2018. An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence.

“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,” the AFC scout said. “He was caught in a bad situation.”

A year ago, the Packers traded up late in the first round to No. 26 and gambled on Utah State’s Jordan Love.

A fourth-year junior, Love could have been in this draft. Because he didn’t play a down as a rookie, clubs still view him as a draft-eligible player. Seventeen scouts agreed to slot Love as if he were part of this draft. One rated him second, three rated him fourth, four rated him fifth, six rated him sixth, one rated him seventh and two rated him eighth.

“He would fit right in with this group. He really would,” an AFC personnel chief said. “Potential and traits, and you wish you saw it more on tape for a longer period.”

The NFL’s leap of faith at quarterback kicks off next week.

Ranking the quarterbacks

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (6-foot-5 ½, 213, no 40-yard dash time, Round 1 draft projection): Will follow in the footsteps of Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick.

“He doesn’t have the same kind of downfield vision and pocket feel that Joe had, but he’s got a little bigger arm and maybe more raw movement skills,” said one scout. “I would rate Joe’s football IQ and ability to diagnose and deliver with accuracy higher. I would put Trevor’s arm strength and ability to make plays with his legs maybe a little higher. Both excellent prospects. That would have been a tough call if they were both were in the same class.”

A third-year junior, he went 34-2 as a starter. As a freshman, he led Clemson to the national title. “He’s kind of ready-made for it,” said a second scout. “He’s not as heavy as Andrew (Luck). You’d want to see a little more meat on the bones, but he’s still a big kid … Jacksonville has enough receivers, a 1,000-yard rusher and two good bookends (tackles). Even though Jacksonville isn’t very good defensively they still have three building blocks in Josh Allen, C.J. Henderson and Myles Jack, who arguably are the best players at their positions in that division (AFC South). With that cap space (league-high $39.4 million) and that amount of picks (10), it’s going to be really hard to see that guy fail …

“He’s just polished. I wouldn’t say he’s Josh Allen talent-wise. I wouldn’t say he’s got Pat Mahomes’ arm. But you don’t need to — to be able to score and to win and to lead. He’s done that his entire career. He’s played with a lot of talent but, yeah, he’s always won.”

Finished with an NFL-equivalent passer rating of 114.7. “Is he Josh Allen or Blake Bortles?” a third scout said. “Those are the two guys I see. I like Lawrence but the accuracy thing … how has he played the last couple years against SEC teams and Big Ten teams? He’s a better athlete than Ben Roethlisberger. Trevor Lawrence is a great athlete.”

Threw for scouts Feb. 12 before undergoing surgery four days later to repair the labrum in his left shoulder. Will be drafted without running a 40. “He’s got some glaring flaws,” a fourth scout said. “The ACC stinks. It’s a terrible conference. Everything was so easy for him. Now when he plays LSU, Ohio State this year, Miami, Virginia Tech, there were times he had to speed up and he looked average. When you put him against other elite competition he has not stepped up. When Deshaun Watson was there and he played Alabama two years in a row, that guy was by far the best player on the field. A superstar. I never saw that with Trevor Lawrence.”

His 10-inch hands were the second largest among the top 12 quarterbacks. From Cartersville, Ga.

2. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 214, no 40 time, Round 1): Came out of nowhere in 2020 after a sophomore season in which his passer rating was a meager 84.9.

“There isn’t one scout in America that had Mac Jones and Zach Wilson in the top 5 back in the fall,” said one scout. “If they say that, they’re lying. A year ago, nobody knew his name … is he a pure passer? Yes. Is he a good enough athlete? Probably. Is he super explosive as an athlete? No. He is a pure passer more than anything else. He’s got a little Aaron Rodgers in him with that scissor kick and throw where both feet are off the ground. I think he probably picked that up from watching Rodgers.”

After winning a quarterback competition before the season, he compiled a passer rating of 138.2 for a career mark of 111.4. A second scout saw some Joe Montana in him. “Love him,” said a third scout. “He’s just a natural. He just has the movement, the looseness, the throwing from all angles, the jumping around in the pocket. His release is quick as hell. He is a nifty, elusive type in the pocket.”

Durability is an issue for some teams. They say he played at about 205 pounds before bulking up at pro day, when he didn’t run a 40. Had right shoulder surgery (2018) and right thumb surgery (2019). “If they put him on the ground a lot, it’s like he’s going to break,” a fourth scout said. Hands were 9½ inches. Some scouts have reservations about his ability to lead and blend in a locker room. From Draper, Utah.

3. Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-2 ½, 227, 4.46 40 time, Round 1): Attempted 39 passes in 12 games as a true freshman at Georgia in 2018 before transferring. Two-time Big Ten offensive player of the year for the Buckeyes.

“Tremendous,” said one scout. “Ran 4.44. He’s got all the tools to do it. I hate to bring up (Dwayne) Haskins and Terrelle Pryor or some of those other (Ohio State) quarterbacks there that haven’t done it.”

Career passer rating of 127.6. Also ran for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns. “He’s a very smart guy and I see all the tools,” a second scout said. “If he’s good, he can be Donovan McNabb. But he’s going to need that redshirt year to kind of mesh.”

Had some fabulous games and a few stinkers in 2020 as well. “He’s a knockoff Cam Newton,” said a third scout. “He’s typically been the biggest, strongest, fastest kid on the field his whole life. He has learned to play football that when they call a pass he drops back and looks. First read, second read, if they’re not there, take off and run. Or if there was pressure, take off and run. At Ohio State, basically the same thing happened. To have him doing full-field reads will be a challenge. At the same time, in the NFL, Cam Newton did that for a decade. If you craft an offense around his skill set and don’t try to jam him into some system that will corral his abilities, then he’s got a chance. If you try to turn him into the classic NFL quarterback, I think you’re going to be frustrated.”

Led the Buckeyes to a 1-2 record in the College Football Playoff. Has small hands (9 1/8). “He is one of the top athletes (at quarterback) of all time,” a fourth scout said. “Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see. I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play and on the next play I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom.” From Kennesaw, Ga.

4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-foot-4, 224, no 40 time, Round 1): Turned down the chance to play safety at his home-state Big Ten team (Minnesota) and spent three seasons in Fargo. Won all 17 of his starts.

“He and Jordan Love, there might not be much difference between them,” said one scout. “He’s not that accurate with the ball. He’s got some mechanical flaws. He drops his weight and then comes back up to kind of generate some power from his lower body. His accuracy is a little erratic. People say he’s a developmental guy. You’re going to draft this guy and sit him for a year? He needs to play. He’s thrown (318) passes in his life. Mahomes threw 300 passes in six weeks at Texas Tech. But how do you take the guy and throw him out there when he’s this green?”

Compiled a passer rating of 130.1 in 2019. In 2020, against a Central Arkansas team that finished 5-4, he had a passer rating of just 72.8 in a 39-28 victory. He also ran for 143 yards. “He might (bust) because of the competition,” said a second scout. “I would be scared as hell to have to draft him. Maybe you fall in love with the workout, then a year later you’re getting a divorce. He’s good but he’s not Cam Newton, I’ll tell you that right now. Don’t confuse him with Cam Newton. He won a (FBS) national championship. This kid’s coming from North Dakota State.”

Led the Bison to the FCS national title in 2019. Finished with a career passer rating of 125.3. Has small hands (9 1/8). “What scares me?” said a third scout. “Inability to throw a catchable football. If you really watch Trey Lance, all the receivers have to make unbelievable adjustments to his throws. He only throws 16 to 18 times a game because of the offense. He’s not a real thrower. I may be wrong on this but, my God, he’s at least three years away.” From Marshall, Minn.

5. Mac Jones, Alabama (6-2 ½, 217, 4.81 40 time, Round 1): Redshirted as a three-star recruit in 2017, carried a clipboard in ’18, made four starts for an injured Tua Tagovailoa in ’19 and went 13-0 for the national champs in ’20.

“If you throw away the way he looks, and he looks like sh*t, he’s a really good player,” said one scout. “People want to roll their eyes when you make a comparison with one of the greatest players ever. Is the guy going to win seven Super Bowls? I don’t know, but there are a lot of Tom Brady traits to this player. He’s got that kind of anticipation, that kind of arm. You want to look at him and say he’s not a good athlete, but he’s a functionally really good quarterback athlete. If you ask Tom Brady to scramble he looked like an old man even when he came out.”

His career passer rating of 138.2 edged Tagovailoa’s 138.1 and Baker Mayfield’s 131.1 at Oklahoma. “I love the kid at Alabama, but he’s not Tom Brady,” said a second scout. “Everyone’s trying to find that next Tom Brady or the next Peyton Manning, the non-mobile bell cow. Those guys are wired different. They’re culture guys. A year ago, they didn’t even think he’d be the starter at Alabama.”

Even wears his socks rolled over like Brady. Hands were 9¾.

“If he goes to San Francisco (No. 3), they’ll protect him with the run game,” said a third scout. “A lot of their passing is based on timing, rhythm and play-action. He should be able to do those things. But does he have an explosive arm? No. Does he have an explosive lower body? No. When push comes to shove, what’s the physical trait that gets him off the hook? Well, he doesn’t really have one. He’s got kind of a bad body … when people said he was going to the Saints in the 20s (No. 28), that made sense to me. To say he’s going to go 3 overall … as ridiculous as taking Zach Wilson is at 2, what’s even more absurd is the Niners taking Mac Jones at 3. I mean, good God.” From Jacksonville, Fla.

6. Kyle Trask, Florida (6-foot-5, 236, 5.08 40 time, Rounds 2-3): Compared by one scout to Ben Roethlisberger, although he noted that Big Ben (6-foot-5, 241) ran considerably faster (4.86) coming out of Miami (Ohio) in 2004.

“Nobody’s talking about him,” one scout said. “I’d take him over Lance. He’s a big, strong, tough kid. He’ll step up, and he can throw it. He’s got good enough arm strength. Second round.”

A high school backup in Manvel, Texas, he redshirted in 2016 and then didn’t become a starter until 2019. “I see Jared Goff,” said another scout. “He’s strictly a pocket guy. He has a high, three-quarters release. Quick release, tight ball. He can move around the pocket but he doesn’t have quickness. He does have good pocket awareness.”

Finished with a career passer rating of 117.1. “Similar to Jones,” said a third scout. “He’s a game manager. Average arm. He gets in rhythm good, but if he has to reset and throw it’s over with. He’s a backup type. If he ends up starting you’ve got a bad team.” Largest hands (10 1/8) of the top quarterbacks.

7. Davis Mills, Stanford (6-3 ½, 217, 4.80 40 time, Round 3): Top-ranked recruit out of Duluth, Ga. Redshirted in 2016 as he rehabilitated a high-school knee injury. Teams also have concerns about the condition of his shoulder.

“He’s a little bit more mobile than Trask,” said one scout. “They’re similar, but I’d take Trask. He could be an eventual starter. His accuracy is really good. Has some injury issues. Really hasn’t played a lot. He had command of the offense. He would get the ball out of his hand.”

Went 6-5 as a starter for the Cardinal with a career passer rating of 95.8. “He’s like a one-read robot where he just stares down (receivers),” a second scout said. “Just not a lot of natural feel for the game. His arm’s good enough. He can run some. He’s not a playmaker. He’s just kind of a one-read, systems-type player.” Hands were 9½.

8. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (6-foot-2 ½, 208, 4.62 40 time, Round 4): Won the job as a true freshman in 2017 and held it all four years.

“Before the season I thought he’d be a free agent,” said one scout. “Now I’ve got him in the fifth or sixth (round). He’s got a strong arm. He’s a good straight-line athlete but he doesn’t adjust well to movement. He’s a little mechanical. He’ll be a competitive backup for someone.”

Showed major improvement as a senior with a passer rating of 104 compared to 71 in 2017, 91.3 in ’18 and 89.2 in ’19. His career mark was 90. “He’s a paint-by-numbers guy,” a second scout said. “He can’t improvise.”

Hands were 9 3/8. “He’s jumpy at everything he does,” a third scout said. “No poise. He’s stiff with his ball carriage and delivery. He can run in a straight line but he’s not fluid and he gets scared when people tackle him.” From San Antonio.

9. Ian Book, Notre Dame (6-foot-0, 211, 4.65 40 time, Round 5): Winningest quarterback in Fighting Irish history. His record was 30-5.

“He won me over this year where he had not in the past,” one scout said. “He’s a good athlete, gritty and tough. He protects the ball. He’s got a better arm than you want to give him credit for. His accuracy can be all over the place, but he doesn’t make bad decisions. He’ll be a good No. 3. He’ll try to be a good No. 2 but I just don’t see it happening.”

Only Brady Quinn remains ahead of him in the Notre Dame passing record book. Finished with a career passer rating of 101.7 while rushing for 1,518 yards and 17 TDs.

“He makes the plays with his feet, but I just didn’t think he had the arm,” said a second scout. “Accuracy was an issue. He looked to tuck it and run a lot. He lacked pocket poise.” Hands were 9 7/8. From El Dorado Hills, Calif.

10. Sam Ehlinger, Texas (6-foot-1, 220, 4.84 40 time, Round 5): Possibly the toughest quarterback in the draft.

“You could honestly probably play him at running back,” said one scout. “He’s tough enough that he’s played special teams. You want this kid on your team. He’s very genuine. The reason you’d be giving him a chance is because of who he is.”

Rushed for 1,907 yards and 33 TDs in a read-option offense designed around his aggressive running style. Fought through injuries throughout four starting seasons. “I don’t think he throws it well enough,” said a second scout. “If he’s your quarterback and he’s got to throw the ball, you’re going to come up short. He’s a great dude, a great teammate, a great leader.”

His career passer rating was 100.1. Hands were 9 5/8. “He’s a gamer,” said a third scout. From Austin, Texas.

11. Feleipe Franks, Arkansas (6-foot-6 ½, 234, 4.66 40 time, Round 6): Started 24 games at Florida from 2017-19 before suffering a broken ankle. Kyle Trask took over and Franks transferred to Arkansas after the season.

“He’s a big guy with a strong arm,” said one scout. “He’s not very mobile. Holds the ball. Indecisive. Excellent deep touch. If he has time in the pocket, then he’s good.”

Had a love-hate relationship with Gators fans. “Lots of fire and passion,” said another scout. Made nine starts for the Razorbacks in 2020. Career passer rating of 97.1. Hands were 9¾. “He was very inaccurate,” a third scout said. “The ball was all over the place.” From Crawfordsville, Fla.

12. Jamie Newman, Georgia (6-foot-3, 234, no 40 time, Round 7): Started 16 games at Wake Forest in 2018-19 before departing after it appeared the Demon Deacons were set to start sophomore Sam Hartman in 2020. “At Wake Forest he reminded me of Jordan Love,” said one scout. “He’s a big-time athlete and has a strong arm, but he wasn’t accurate.”

Was in position to start at Georgia but then opted out. “He said he wouldn’t have been prepared properly to play and be successful,” a second scout said. “Never got on the field with (Georgia) coaches because of COVID. He has the ability. He can run the ball. But I’m not sold on this kid.”

Career passer rating of 95. Hands were 9¾. From Graham, N.C.

Others: Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern; K.J. Costello, Mississippi State; Zach Smith, Tulsa; Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist; Brady White, Memphis.

The skinny

Unsung hero

Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern: Played a role in Indiana’s resurgence by making 23 starts from 2017-19. Joined the Wildcats as a graduate transfer in 2020 and went 7-2 for a team that reached the Big Ten Championship Game. Smart, seasoned, sufficient size (6-foot-2, 213 pounds) and sufficient speed (4.76 40 time). He’ll get an NFL opportunity.

Scouts’ nighmare

Shane Buechele, Southern Methodist: Started 12 games for Texas as a true freshman in 2016 and then seven more in ’17 before Ehlinger took over in ’18. Transferred to SMU and put up big numbers as a 23-game starter from 2019-20. His career passer rating of 97.3 and strong leadership style merit attention. His size (6-foot-0, 210 pounds) and a marginal arm conspire against him.

Scout to remember

Dick Steinberg: As general manager of the Jets in 1990, he hired Ron Wolf from the Raiders as his personnel director. Wolf credited Steinberg with exposing him to an entirely different system of scouting, a 1½-year stint that he called one of the most professionally challenging of his Hall of Fame career. Steinberg helped build Super Bowl teams with the Rams and Patriots in a 25-year scouting career. He died in 1995. He was 60.

Quote to note

AFC personnel executive: “The greatest workout of all time was JaMarcus Russell. These quarterbacks throwing on air … I’m sorry, I just don’t get all worked up about that.”

[joewilly12]

Thursday night can't come quick enough for me. 

[Peace Frog]

This is interesting reading. 

[Pac]

18 minutes ago, hmhertz said:

“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,”

[Larz]

43 minutes ago, Pac said:

What are the chances?   The jets got it right with the 200 lb Mormon lol

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, hmhertz said:

If he’s good, he can be Donovan McNabb

 

1 hour ago, hmhertz said:

“He’s a knockoff Cam Newton,” said a third scout.

 

1 hour ago, hmhertz said:

“Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see.

so we're still doing this sh*t huh

[Mogglez]

20 hours ago, dbatesman said:

 

so we're still doing this sh*t huh

The best part is Sam Darnold compares more to Jameis than Fields, but they’re all talking about the “mistake” it was to trade him.

McNabb is a fair one though. I heard Bucky Brooks compare them on the NFL network two nights ago.  My personal “best case” comp is a hybrid of Watson and Big Ben, with his worst case being Alex Smith (pre-injury).

[kdels62]

1 hour ago, Pac said:

9 TDs worth of mistake.

[kdels62]

7 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

 

 

so we're still doing this sh*t huh

I’m surprised we didn’t see “similar to Lamar Jackson”

[Pac]

40 minutes ago, Larz said:

What are the chances?   The jets got it right with the 200 lb Mormon lol

I'm not optimistic.  I'd roll with Fields but if I gotta subscribe to Disney + so be it.

[Integrity28]

Scouts: “Trevor is a once every 10 years prospect. The last one was Andrew Luck...”

Also scouts: “He’s not as good as Joe Burrow, but...”

[Beerfish]

Confirms a few things I've been saying for a while.

This is not all that super of a QB class but value of these guys gets pushed far too high due to need.

the comment about Zac Wilson and Jones not at all being thought of as top 5 guys a year ago.

Same thing has happened often in the past.

Same will happen next year.  Right now every one and their dog says 'Next year is a weak Qb crop, better get your guy now'

Next year there will be 5 top end guys again at least 2 no one has talked about as being any good right now.

[Integrity28]

Draft Jamar Chase or Pitts at 2.

Try to trade back up for Fields or Mac Jones if either drops, if not draft Trask later in the draft. 

Regardless of QB, go sign a journeyman to start first 5-8 games while you prep your rookie.

 

[slimjasi]

Yes, scouts love Darnold. 

The problem is that the film doesn't. 

[Beerfish]

3 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Draft Jamar Chase or Pitts at 2.

Try to trade back up for Fields or Mac Jones if either drops, if not draft Trask later in the draft. 

Regardless of QB, go sign a journeyman to start first 5-8 games while you prep your rookie.

 

I'll support Wilson but from day one I was in the trade back from #2 train for a haul and you could probably still get a Qb this year if they really wanted.

[jetstream23]

6 hours ago, hmhertz said:

Two personnel evaluators argued that the Jets, who are expected to draft a quarterback at No. 2, just traded away a capable one in Sam Darnold, their choice at No. 3 in 2018. An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence.

[oatmeal]

The biggest mistake was trading Darnold but Carolina is hesitant to pick up his 5th year opinion... 

[jetstream23]

6 hours ago, hmhertz said:

“To say he’s going to go 3 overall … as ridiculous as taking Zach Wilson is at 2, what’s even more absurd is the Niners taking Mac Jones at 3. I mean, good God.”

[jetstream23]

7 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

The biggest mistake was trading Darnold but Carolina is hesitant to pick up his 5th year opinion... 

Why would they pick up the option when they don’t have to until after the draft? What if a quarterback drops to them at #8 who they can sit behind Sam?

[jetstream23]

3 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Draft Jamar Chase or Pitts at 2.

Try to trade back up for Fields or Mac Jones if either drops, if not draft Trask later in the draft. 

Regardless of QB, go sign a journeyman to start first 5-8 games while you prep your rookie.

 

Or draft Pitts, trade the #66 for Bridgewater and sign Hoyer.

 

[rangerous]

namath threw scissor kick passes in college.  the article made mention of kansas city drafting mahomesbut they had the luxury of sitting him behind mahomes for a season before starting him so it's not like they really climbed the draft psotitions to get him.  the same thing can be said of the niners.  they still have garapollo to start until fields/jones/lance learn the position and can take over.  it sounds like the jets will be throwing wilson into the fire from day 1.

[Biggs]

Meanwhile between 2015 and 2018 8 first round  QB's have been in the playoffs, 2 in the SB and 1 has won the SB.  3 of them have been the leagues MVP.

[playtowinthegame]

12 hours ago, hmhertz said:

I see maybe Russell Wilson.”

That would be Justin Fields in this draft class. 

[redlichtie]

“There isn’t one scout in America that had Mac Jones and Zach Wilson in the top 5 back in the fall,” said one scout. “If they say that, they’re lying. A year ago, nobody knew his name … is he a pure passer? Yes. Is he a good enough athlete? Probably. Is he super explosive as an athlete? No. He is a pure passer more than anything else. He’s got a little Aaron Rodgers in him

Really baffled as to why the bolded is at all relevant for a QB, or what it even means in terms of his ability? How exactly do you define ‘athleticism’ ? If anything Wilson is one of the more athletic QB prospects out there, certainly way more so than Mac Jones or Trask and at least the equal of Sam

What are we actually evaluating here? We want a guy who can drop back and get the ball to a super explosive athlete! ...if this scout was assessing Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees or even Mahomes would he be marking them down as ‘not an explosive enough athlete’ ?

You have to wonder sometimes what these pro-scouts are really looking for, the nit-picking is probably why they get it so wrong so often, and this particular scout seems to use a perceived lack of athleticism as the sole argument to steer clear when everything else indicates Wilson has most, if not all, of what is takes to be a successful QB in the NFL...or at the very least a legit prospect worthy of a very high pick...he’s ‘a pure passer’ surely that’s a good thing?...surely that’s what you want more than a ‘super-explosive athlete’,

We are not drafting a Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson where we are looking to taylor a specific offense around him. An offense that is predicated on a explosive ability to run as much as pass. We want a traditional passing QB with the added bonus of being a threat to take off and run. Wilson appears to be everything Darnold was in terms of ‘athleticism’ with the added bonus that his mechanics and technique are not a diabolical mess that will need completely over-hauling to be NFL ready. 

The concern with Wilson is that he’s had an injury history and that he’s not got the prototypical bulk of an old school passer like Big Ben or Allen but 6-2 215 is plenty big enough and once in an NFL program he should be able to physically bulk up even more if necessary, and as for the injury history, not one red flag appears to have been raised in the medical checks thus far.....meanwhile Lawrence is lighter and 4 inches taller yet if anything his physique is considered more of a positive than a negative and he’s just had labrum surgery weeks ago, not several years back when he was basically still a kid.

The argument about level of competition he faced is a legit enough reason to take a closer look but once you do that and realise he dominated when he was supposed to you can make the leap of faith that suggests he can raise his level when he plays on Sundays.

The big caveat with all of this remains the same. if we don’t surround whoever our QB is with talent. If we don’t protect him a dominant OL, if we don’t ease the pressure on the passing game with a highly effective rushing attack, if he doesn’t have an elite group of receivers getting open quickly downfield, and if our play-calling confuses and constrains....then whoever we draft will be doomed to struggle and eventually fail.
 

[Integrity28]

8 hours ago, oatmeal said:

The biggest mistake was trading Darnold but Carolina is hesitant to pick up his 5th year opinion... 

Biggest mistake is Jets letting a QB who evils higher than this class out the door.

Carolina playing chess with the timing of his 5th year option isn’t relevant to the first point.

[sourceworx]

[Warfish]

Quote

 

2. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 214, no 40 time, Round 1): Came out of nowhere in 2020 after a sophomore season in which his passer rating was a meager 84.9.

“There isn’t one scout in America that had Mac Jones and Zach Wilson in the top 5 back in the fall,” said one scout. “If they say that, they’re lying. A year ago, nobody knew his name … is he a pure passer? Yes. Is he a good enough athlete? Probably. Is he super explosive as an athlete? No. He is a pure passer more than anything else. He’s got a little Aaron Rodgers in him with that scissor kick and throw where both feet are off the ground. I think he probably picked that up from watching Rodgers.”

After winning a quarterback competition before the season, he compiled a passer rating of 138.2 for a career mark of 111.4. A second scout saw some Joe Montana in him. “Love him,” said a third scout. “He’s just a natural. He just has the movement, the looseness, the throwing from all angles, the jumping around in the pocket. His release is quick as hell. He is a nifty, elusive type in the pocket.”

Durability is an issue for some teams. They say he played at about 205 pounds before bulking up at pro day, when he didn’t run a 40. Had right shoulder surgery (2018) and right thumb surgery (2019). “If they put him on the ground a lot, it’s like he’s going to break,” a fourth scout said. Hands were 9½ inches. Some scouts have reservations about his ability to lead and blend in a locker room. From Draper, Utah.

 

Translation:  The 2nd riskiest pick amongst the 2020 QB Prospects behind only Lance.

[Charlie Brown]

I agree with the article...

 

I keep saying it over and over again....

Whomever we draft should SIT FOR A YEAR AT LEAST!!!

QB's must be developed..........and the idea that they are either boom or bust are overstated when you don't put it in the proper context.

[Bungaman]

Great. Now I don't like any of them.

[bitonti]

The Jets picking a qb is like walking right up to the roulette wheel and putting it on red 

It's a pure appeal to luck 

There's no rational reason why wilson would be a good fit. It's just a matter of hope and blind faith 

The reality of this player is going to be alot of injuries, lots of dumb gunslinger picks and not setting his feet before he throws them.

That outcome (black and the 2 greens) more likely than it hitting red and Wilson becomes a multi pro bowl player. Jets fans are comfortable with ZW at 45 percent when a player like Pitts is at 90 percent 

[BigRy56]

Wilson is the best QB in the draft

[Doggin94it]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Translation:  The 2nd riskiest pick amongst the 2020 QB Prospects behind only Lance.

Funny. My translation of that was "the concerns with Zach Wilson are durability and personality, not talent or decision-making"

That's a good thing, especially because the front office can get enough info on both to be comfortable. 

[Doggin94it]

Hey, @hmhertz - what did McGinn have to say about WR/TE and OL?

[Dunnie]

11 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Yes, scouts love Darnold. 

The problem is that the film doesn't. 

... neither does reality.

[Dunnie]

23 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

Wilson is the best QB in the draft

Agree .. ceiling is higher than Lawrence.